INSTITUTO TECNOLOGICO SUPERIOR DE LA COSTA CHICA. MATERIA: GESTION DE LA PRODUCCION I
CATEDRATICO JORGE ALBERTO CORONADO MONTOR
TRABAJO. 2.1 IMPORTANCIA ESTRATEGICA DEL PRONÓSTICO Y LA DEMANDA .
EQUIPO: GESTION DE INVENTARIOS. INVENTARIOS.
INTEGRANTES VAZQUEZ VAZQUEZ GUILLEN FRANCISCO ANICA VELEZ DANIELA LIZETH VILLEGAS GOMEZ GUADALUPE YARELI YARELI RENDON CISNEROS ADILENE
CARRERA INGENIERÍA EN GESTION EMPRESARIAL.
TURNO VESPERTINO
OMETEPEC GRO; 24 DE FEBRERO DEL 2015.
2.1.- IMPORTANCIA ESTRATEGICA DEL PRONÓSTICO LA DEMANDA. DEFINICIÓN DE PRONÓSTICO. Los !o"#s$%&os so" !'(%&&%o"'s (' )o *+' +'(' s+&'('! o 's'!,!- so" !'%s,s o s+os%&%o"'s /0s%&,s '" *+' s' /,s," ), ),"',&%#" ), $o, (' ('&%s%o"'s. E) o/'$%3o (' +" !o"#s$%&o 's !'(+&%! ), %"&'!$%(+/!' ,&'!&, (' )o *+' +'(' ,&o"$'&'! '" ') 4+$+!o !oo!&%o","(o %"4o!,&%#" &'!&,", , ), !',)%(,(- *+' '!%$, $o,! ('&%s%o"'s.
CLASIFICACIÓN. C!"#! $%&'!: D' 5 , 6 's's- s' +$%)%7, '" &o!,s- ,s%8",&%#" (' $,!',s "%3')'s (' !o(+&&%#". M()*&+! $%&'!: D' 6 's's , 6 ,9os- !o'(%os o3%/)'s- !o'(%os o3%/)'s &o" 'so- s+,3%7,(o ':o"'"&%,)- $'"('"&%,s '" s'!%'s (' $%'o , &o!$o ),7o. L&",! $%&'!: D' 6 ,9os , ; ,9os- ),"',&%#" (' 3'"$,s !o(+&&%#"!'s++'s$o (' '4'&$%3o. TIPOS DE PRONOSTICOS
L,s o!8,"%7,&%o"'s ')'," $!'s $%os !%"&%,)'s (' !o"#s$%&os ,) ),"',! s+s o'!,&%o"'s 4+$+!,s<
Los !o"#s$%&os '&o"#%&os ,/o!(," ') &%&)o (') "'8o&%o ,) !'('&%! $,s,s (' %"4),&%#"- s+%"%s$!os (' (%"'!o- &o"s$!+&&%#" (' 3%3%'"(,s o$!os %"(%&,(o!'s (' ),"',&%#".
Los !o"#s$%&os $'&"o)#8%&os s' !'4%'!'" , )os ="(%&'s (' !o8!'so $'&"o)#8%&o- *+' +'('" (,! )+8,! , "+'3os !o(+&$os %"$'!'s,"$'s- *+' !'*+'!%!0" "+'3,s ),"$,s '*+%o.
Los !o"#s$%&os (' ), (',"(, so" !o'&&%o"'s (' ), (',"(, (' !o(+&$os o s'!3%&%os (' ), &o,9=,.
Es$os !o"#s$%&os $,/%>" s' &o"o&'" &oo !o"#s$%&os (' 3'"$,s ,+(," , o!%'"$,! )os s%s$',s (' !o(+&&%#"- &,,&%(,( !o8!,,&%#" (' ), '!'s,- s%!3' &oo 4,&$o!'s '" ), ),"',&%#" 4%","&%'!,- ,!?'$%"8 '!so",). IMPORTANCIA L, 4o!+),&%#" (' !o"#s$%&o @o !o'&&%#" 's +", $>&"%&, ,!, +$%)%7,! ':'!%'"&%,s ,s,(,s &o" ), 4%",)%(,( (' !'('&%! ':'&$,$%3,s (') 4+$+!o. Es "'&'s,!%o ,!, $o(, o!8,"%7,&%#" 's$%,! ') &oo!$,%'"$o 4+$+!o (' ,)8+", 3,!%,/)' , s', , &o!$o- '(%,"o o ),!8o ),7o- 's ') +"$o (' ,!$%(, ,!, ), ),"',&%#". P!%"&%,)'"$' )os !o"#s$%&os so" %o!$,"$'s o! *+><
1. 2. .
P%&+(&*+ )( +/(& *+#&%&*!+(. P%&+(&*+ )( %& $"!)/*+. P"!,"&3&*+ )( %& /("'& )( #"&&6!. DEFINICIÓN DE DEMANDA
Es ), &,"$%(,( (' /%'"'s s'!3%&%os *+' s' 's$,!=, (%s+'s$o , &o!,! , &,(, +"o (' )os !'&%os os%/)'s *+' , '" ') '!&,(o. L, "o&%#" (' (',"(, ,&' !'4'!'"&%, , +", so)%&%$+(- '$%&%#"- s)%&, o '(%(o. A*+') *+' (',"(, so)%&%$, *+' s' )' '"$!'8+' ,)8o.
CLASIFICACIÓN S' &),s%4%&," '" (os<
D',"(, (''"(%'"$'< T,/%>" )),,(,s (' /%'" so&%,)- ,*+'))o *+' ), so&%'(,( !'*+%'!' ,!, s+ ('s,!!o))o &!'&%%'"$o. @A)%'"$,&%#"- 3's$%(os,)+(- 3%3%'"(,- '(+&,&%#" D',"(, %"(''"(%'"$'< T,/%>" )),,(,s (' /%'"'s "o "'&'s,!%os&o"s+o s+"$+,!%o (o"(' s' s,$%s4,&' +" 8+s$o "o +", "'&'s%(,(. @P'!4+'s- !o, 4%",- ')'&$!#"%&,
IMPORTANCIA.
1 D'&%(%! s% ), (',"(, 's s+4%&%'"$' ,!, +s$%4%&,! ), '"$!,(, ,) '!&,(o. 2 D'$'!%",! ),s "'&'s%(,('s , ),!8o ),7o (' ), &,,&%(,( ,!, ') (%s'9o (' %"s$,),&%o"'s. 6 D'$'!%",! ),s 4)+&$+,&%o"'s , &o!$o ),7o '" ), (',"(, ,!, ), ),"',&%#" (' ), !o(+&&%#"- ), !o8!,,&%#" (' ), 4+'!7, (' $!,/,o), ),"',&%#" (' )os ,$'!%,)'s o$!,s "'&'s%(,('s. D''"(' (' ), (',"(, ),s '!'s,s ,!, o4'!$,! s+s !o(+&$os- /+s&,! 's$!,$'8%,s o $>&"%&,s *+' )'s 4,&%)%$'" s+s &)%'"$'s.
CONCLUSIÓN. E) !o"#s$%&o 's ), /,s' (' ), ),"',&%#" &o!o!,$%3, , ),!8o ),7o. E" ),s 0!',s 4+"&%o",)'s (' 4%","7,s &o"$,/%)%(,(- )os !o"#s$%&os !oo!&%o"," ') 4+"(,'"$o ,!, ), ),"',&%#" (' !'s++'s$os &o"$!o) (' &os$os. E) ,!?'$%"8 (''"(' (') !o"#s$%&o (' 3'"$,s ,!, ),"',! !o(+&$os "+'3os ') '!so",) (' !o(+&&%#" o'!,&%o"'s +$%)%7, )os !o"#s$%&os ,!, $o,! ('&%s%o"'s '!%#(%&,s *+' &o!'"('" ), s')'&&%#" (' !o&'sos- ), ),"',&%#" (' ),s &,,&%(,('s ), (%s$!%/+&%#" (' ),s %"s$,),&%o"'s- ,s= &oo ,!, $o,! ('&%s%o"'s &o"$%"+,s &'!&, (' ), ),"',&%#" (' ), !o(+&&%#"- ), !o8!,,&%#" ') %"3'"$,!%o. E) !o"#s$%&o (' ), (',"(, &o"s%s$' '" 's$%,! ),s 3'"$,s (' +" !o(+&$o (+!,"$' +" ('$'!%",(o '!%o(o 4+$+!o. U" /+'" !o"#s$%&o 's (' %o!$,"&%, &!+&%,) ,!, $o(os )os ,s'&$os (') "'8o&%o< ') !o"#s$%&o 's ), "%&, 's$%,&%#" (' ), (',"(, ,s$, *+' s' &o"o&' ), (',"(, !',).