10th of April, 2015
Final Coordination Meeting
Feasibility Study for Jakarta-Bandung High Speed Railway Project (as a part part of Jakarta-Surabaya) Jakarta-Surabaya) Phase I JAPAN JAP AN INTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL COOPERA COOPERATION TION AGENCY AGENCY Japan International Consultants for Transportation Co., Ltd.
COOPERATIVE FIRMS
PT Matra Matra Rekayas Rekayasa a Intern Internasi asiona onall ENGI ENGINE NEER ERIN ING G & MANA MANAGE GEME MENT NT CONS CONSUL ULTA TANT NT
Gadjah Gadjah Mad
Table of Contents Project Schedule and Progress
…P3
Worldwide High Speed Railway Systems
…P4
Route Alignment
…P5
Demand Forecast
…P7
Preliminary Environment and Social Considerations … P 9
Cost Estimation (Project Cost)
… P 10
Project Effects
… P 11
Business Scheme and Implementation Implementation Plan … P 12 Economic and Financial Analysis
… P 23
Overall Study Summary Phase I Study Conclusions
… P24 … P25
Recommendations & Way Forward Possible Financing Resources in Future Implementation Implementation Schedule
… P 26 … P 28 … P 30
Project Schedule and Progress Progress 2014
2015
Construction
Follow Up
Oct. 17th MoM
Feasibility Study Phase I
Feasibility Study Phase II
Phase II
Phase I •
•
Preliminary Preliminary analysis on JKT-BDG-SBY Feasibility of JKT-BDG Demand forecast Comparison of technical spec. Route alignment Location of station Preliminary environment and social consideration Implementing structure and scheme Economic and financial analysis
•
•
•
•
•
Follow up and preparation are essential to go to Phase II.
• •
Inauguration
Engineering Service
Review of route alignment Detailed technical and engineering studies Operation and maintenance Detailed project implementation plan Detailed cost estimation EIA report/ LARAP Detailed economic and financial analysis
E/S • • •
•
Detailed design PPP design Tender documents preparation Tender assistance as sistance
Worldwide High Speed Railway Systems Country
Japan
France
Spain
China
South Korea
First Inauguration year
1964
1981
1992
2007
2004
Class
E5
TGV-POS
S112
CHR3C
KTX-Sancheon
320km/h
320km/h
300km/h
300km/h
300km/h
Output/Passen Output/Passenger ger capacity capacity
13.1kW
26.0KW
22.0kW
15.8kW
24.2kW
Weight/ Passenger Capacity
0.62t
1.18t
0.89t
0.76t
1.11t
Maximum Gradient
35 ‰
35 ‰*
12.5 ‰
20 ‰
15 ‰
Earthquake Frequency*
29
0
0
5
0
Earthquake Experience
Much
Little
Little
Little
Little
Tokyo 1,529mm
Paris 653mm
Madrid 437mm
Beijing 534mm
Seoul 1,429mm
e c n a m r o f r e p e l c i h e V
d n a r y e h h p t a r a g e o w p o T
Maximum speed (in commercial operation)
Annual Rainfall*
* 35‰ in less than 4km gradient. 25‰ when longer. * Earthquake frequency is counted over magnitude magnitude 7.0 in each country since year 2000. * Annual rainfall in Indonesia; 1,480mm(Jakarta), 1,480mm(Jakarta), 1,656mm(Bandung)
Route Alignment Dukuh Atas (und Dukuh (undergro erground) und) is advisable advisable for Jakarta Jakarta Sta. due to ridership ridership and connection with other transportation.
1.Jakarta Kota
• Commercial and
Selection of the Candidate Sites
2.Kemayoran
business district • Discussion with the related organizations 3.Gambir
• Current state of open space
Primary Selection
Secondary Selection
(Existence of construction space) • Future scalability • Hazardous area of natural disaster
• Technical aspect • Economic aspect • Environmental
aspect
4.Pasar Senen
5.Dukuh Atas 6.Manggarai 7.Senayan
8.Halim
Route Alignment Only 37 minutes from Jakarta to Bandung
Station Name
Jakarta (underground)
(Manggarai *1) (underground)
Distance from Jakarta
0km (3.5km)
Bekasi
26.1km
Cikarang
42.0km
(Karawang*2)
(59.3km)
(Walini *3)
(100.6km)
Bandung
128.5km
Gedebage
140.0km
Stations Stations to be opened in future
Embankm ent, 24.7%
TBM (Shield Tunnel), 10.0% NATM, 20.1% Cut & Cover, 0.4% Bridge, 1.1%
Cutting, 16.9% Viaduct, 26.9%
*1 Manggarai Manggarai : after Manggarai Manggarai redevelopment redevelopment plan plan is implemented implemented *2 Karawang : when new airport inaugurates in future *3 Walini : after Walini Walini development as a new administration center of West Java Province Gov. Gov.
Demand Forecast Result of Demand Forecast 350.000 323.000 300.000 JKT-SBY
Air
JKT-BDG
18%
252.000
250.000 200.000
148.000 150.000 100.000
Bus
Car
12%
65%
161.000 115.000
44.000
50.000
Conversion share from Each Transportation mode
68.000 0 2020
2030
2040
2050
(Jakarta – Surabaya in 2050)
HSR Fare
Bus…
Car…
Conversion share from Each Transportation mode
(Jakarta – Bandung in 2020)
Jakarta - Bandung
Jakarta - Surabaya
Rp 20 200,000
Rp 80 800,000
Demand Forecast Comparison on Transportation Density 1200
Type
Line
Distance
Yearly Passenger Volume
Year of Statistics
Java ((SStudy )
Jakarta – Bandung
140 km km
16,060,000
2020 (E (Estimated)
Java ((SStudy )
Jakarta – Bandung
140 km km
54,020,000
2050 (E (Estimated)
KTX
Gyeongbu
412 km
15,220,000
2009
TGV
Atlantique
290 km
32,000,000
2008
339 km
46,310,000
2013
515 km
154,820,000
2013
Transportation Transportation D ensity (Pax/day/km)
1000 800 600 400 200 0
Taiwan HSR Shinkansen
Tokaido
Java HSR will have have a high level transporta transportation tion density among the world world wide HSR
Comparison on Fare and Wage HSR Fare (A) Indonesia
Taiwan Japan
DKI Low income (2013) DKI High income (2013) All Area (2007) All Area (1964) All Area (1992)
Wage/day (B)
Remarks
(C)=(A)/(B)
Rp. 200,000
Rp. 204,501
1.0
Rp. 200,000
Rp. 445,517
0.4
NT$ 1,490
NT$ 1,480
1.0
\ 2,480
\ 1,191
2.1
\ 14,430
\ 13,620
1.1
Non-agricultural low income level urban household Non-agricultural high income level urban household
Planned HSR fare is reasonable price as compared with Shinkansen fare
Preliminary Environment and Social Considerations •
Refined cost estimates associated with land acquisition and resettlement resettlement Estimated market market price for lands and structures through sample survey in each Kota /Kabupaten Incorporated Incorporated special requirements of compensation for forest forest and paddy fields Estimated allowance and other costs associated with LARAP implementation
Province
Land (ha) Household No.
DKI Jakarta
6.6
West Java
265.1*1
2,941
271.7
3,188
Total
247
· compensation (land, structure, underground space) · allowance · indirect cost · contingency contingency · cost for preparing irrigated paddy field etc.
Approx. IDR 3,960 billion
*1: This figure includes 31ha of irrigated paddy field and 32ha of forest.
•
Reviewed mechanism and schedule for LARAP implementation
Timeline for land acquisition (Phase II + min 319 / max 583 working days) Planning (Phase II)
Preparation (max 289 days)
Implementation (max 257 days)
Handover (37 days)
Cost Estimation(Project Cost) Project Cost = 6,223 million USD (T (Total otal Length = 140km) Construction Cost = 4,429 million USD (31.6 million USD/km) Item t Civil Works s o C Disaster Prevention Equipment t n Track Works e mStation Works e r u Depot/ Workshop c o r Electric Facility P / System/Automatic Fare Collection n o Signaling and Telecommunications Facility i t c u Rolling Stock r t s Maintenance Equipment n o C ) Preparation for Operation 1 ( Construction/Procurement Cost (sub-total)
140 1 140 1 1 1 1 1 84 1 1 140 272 1 1 1 1 140 140
(2) Land Acquisition Cost (3) Consulting Service Cost※※ (4) Management Cost ｛(3)｝x 10% (5) Contingency Rolling Stock Stock Cost｝x 5% ｛(1)＋(3) - Rolling (6) Value-added Taxes ｛(1)＋(3)｝x 10% Project Cost Project Cost (USD) Project Cost (%) (1) (1) - (Rol (Rollin ling g Stoc Stockk + Main Mainte tena nanc nce e Eq. Eq. + Prep Prepar arat atio ion n for for OP.) OP.) ※: Maintenance Eq. + Preparation for OP.)} OP.)} ｘ 5% ※※： {(1) - (Rolling Stock + Maintenance
F/C L/C Total (million USD) (billion IDR) (million USD) km 916 16,253 2,591 LS 19 10 20 km 131 1,924 329 LS 78 617 141 LS 228 1,399 372 LS 440 1,312 576 LS 35 0 35 LS 224 1,364 364 cars 360 0 360 LS 22 0 22 LS 10 98 20 km 2,463 22,977 4,831 ha 0 3,962 408 LS 104 1,144 221 LS 0 215 22 LS 110 1,206 235 LS 0 4,902 505 km 2,677 34,406 6,223 km 2,677 3,547 6,223 43.0 57.0 100.0 The The base base mont month h for for the the calc calcul ulat atio ion n is Marc March h 2014. 2014.
1 USD=9,701IDR=99.24JPY USD=9,701IDR=99.24JPY
Project Effects Effect of Operation
Effect of Construction Investment HSR Development
Economic Econ omic Bene Benefit fit
Travel Time Saving
O&M
VOC* Reduction
*: Vehicle Operation Operation Cost
Increase in demand for relevan relevantt industrial industrial sector sector
44,800 billion IDR (Almost double of initial construction cost)
Increase in Consumption
Increase in demand
2,400 – 8,000 billion IDR (Unit: billion IDR)
10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0
6.900 2.400 2020
Employment creation in construction stage
8.000
4.500 2030
2040
2050
Approx. 35,000 workers
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan Preconditions for examination of the institutional framework Preference ence of the Indonesian side on the th e project modality Prefer •
Consideration of private participation in the project p roject implementation
•
Financial constraint of the state government
Evaluation of Options Preferred ed PPP-based Model: Preferr S OEs) Vertical Separation Model: Alternative (with establishment of two SOEs) => Similar to the structure of Japan and France
Implementation Structure A new authority (High Speed Railway Authority) under the MoT •
Need the authority for technical control of HSR
in frastructure tructure development A new SOE engaged in HSR infras •
•
An entity that can be a borrower of external debt Introduction of new technology (i.e. standards, safety control, paradigm) that is different from the conventional lines
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model) Establishment Establishment of HSR Authority (HSR-A)
[Stage 1: Engineering Services ]
and SOE for HSR development Technical assistance to HSR-A Engineering services to SOE PPP for O&M and concession for business around stations
Proponent Donor
ODA Loan for Engineering Services (E/S)
On-lending/ transfer for E/S
MoF
MoT (DGR )
Recurrent cost for the new authority
Establishing Establishing a new authority for HSR and PMU
New unit unit of HSR (HSR-A) Capital Injection
GCA
: Financial Flow
Direct Appointment
SoE (Development (Development and Asset Management Company)
TA Provider
PMU PMU
Tender Process Process for PPP PPP
: PPP procurement process Consulting Services Phase-1: Engineering Services *** Basic Design, Design, Detail Design *** Project Modality Modality D esign *** Tender Document Preparation & Tender Assistanc e for Civil Works, Procurement and PPP
Technical Support Support contract for O&M
Supporting Entity
Business Entity Entity （SPV） (Operating (Operating Company)
Tender Process
Civil Works, Depot, Other Facilities
: Other control/permit/contract
Debt
Financial Institutions
Equity
Railway Systems & Track Works, Supplier: Rolling Stock
Property Development (Station (Station Building, Building, etc.)
Investors
Associated Business O&M of HSR
(Retail, advertising, etc.)
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model)
[Stage 2: Construction ] Donor
Repayment of ODA Loan for Engineering Services
Government Guarantee ODA Loan for Construction and Procurement (Direct Lending)
Proponent
MoF
Recurrent cost for the new unit
Government Budget for Construction
MoT (DGR )
New unit unit of HSR (HSR-A)
PMU PMU
Supervising
SoE
Technical assistance to HSR-A Direct lending by SOE for construction Engineering services to SOE Cost sharing between Gov., SOE (development company) and SPV
TA Provider
: Financial Flow : Other control/permit/contract : PPP contract
PPP Agreement & Supervising
Consulting Services
(Development (Development and Asset Management Company)
Phase Pha se-2: -2: Construction Construction Management Management *** Supervision of Construction Works and Procurement *** Supervision Supervision of SPV's property development and pre-operation *** Technology transfer
Technical Support Support contract for O&M
Supporting Entity
Business Entity Entity （SPV）
Supervising
Debt
Financial Institutions
(Operating (Operating Company) Company) Equity
Civil Works, Depot, Other Facilities
Railway Railway Systems & Track W orks, Rolling Rolling Stock
Matching by SOE
Property Development (Station Building, etc.)
O&M of HSR (Pre-operation)
Inspection by SPV before leasing
Investors
Associated Business (Retail, advertising, etc.)
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model) Lease of infrastructure and facilities to
[Stage 3: Operation ] Donor
Negotiating fare changes
MoF
MoT (DGR )
Repayment of ODA Loan for Engineering Services
Recurrent cost for the new unit
New unit of HSR (HSR-A)
Government Guarantee
SPV Lease fee payment by SPV to SOE Repayment of loan by SOE Technical control by HSR-A Necessity of government support to the demand risk (ex. availability payment)
PMU
TA Provider
: Financial Flow Repayment of ODA Loan for Construction and Procurement
Controlling technical aspect
SoE (Development and Ass et Management Company)
Controlling technical aspect
Sharing the remaining Fare Box Revenue with the government
: Other control/permit/contract : PPP contract
Availability Payment
Technical Support contract for O&M
Supporting Entity
Repayment
Financial Institutions
Business Entity （ SPV）
Asset Leasing
(Operating Company) Dividend
Lease Fee Payment from Fare Box Revenue
Property Development
Charge
Service
Customers
O&M of HSR (Full operation)
Fare
Service
Passengers
Investors
Associated Business (Retail, advertising, etc.) Charge
Customers
Service
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model) Task Allocation Players
DGR HSR Authority Authority (HSR-A)
Function/Action •
• • •
• • •
SOE
• • • •
•
SPV
• • • •
Approving technical standards prepared by HSR-A (approval only, actual enforcement will be done by HSR-A) Developing HSR technical standards and certification systems Enforcing the regulations and standards Supervising the project implementation (including O&M by SPV)
Stage 1,2,3 Stage 1 Stage 2,3 Stage 2,3
Getting Getting loans for the HSR development development from donor(s) donor(s) Conducting Conducting the basic and detail design (with Engineering Engineering Services) Preparing Preparing the tender documents documents (with Engineering Services) Procuring Procuring and supervising contractors contractors and suppliers (with Engineering Services) Training the company company staff (with Engineering Services) Managing the assets after construction Receiving lease fee from SPV and repaying the loan to donor(s)
Stage 1 Stage 1 Stage 1 Stag Stage e2 Stage 1,2,3 Stage 3 Stage 3
Implementing the PPP portion (station building construction, pre-operation, etc.) Training the O&M staff Operating and maintaining HSR Paying the lease fee to the SOE Carrying out the associated business
Stage 1, 2
Stage 1: Engineering Services / Stage 2: Construction / Stage 3: Operation
Stage 1,2,3 Stage 3 Stage 3 Stage 2,3
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model) Risk Allocation (1/2) Risk Exposure
Risk Alloc Allocatio ation n
State Govt.
HSR-A
SOE
SPV
XX
XX
Preparation Stage
Establishment of HSR-A and SOE
XX
Land Acquisition
XX
Selection of suitable loans
XX
(coordination)
Stage 1: Engineering Services
Approval process of the project
XX
Procurement of SPV
XX
Development cost and consulting fees
XX
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model) Risk Allocation (2/2) Risk Exposure
Risk Alloc Allocatio ation n
State Govt.
HSR-A
SOE
(coordination)
XX
SPV
Stage 2: Construction
Land development Design fault
XX
XX
XX
XX
Commissioning
XX
XX
Matching (System integration)
XX
Cost overrun and delay
(Support)
Stage Stage 3: Operatio Operation n
Inspection before leasing
XX
Availability of facilities
XX
Performance of services
XX
Ridership
XX
Government policy change
XX
XX
End of concession transfer
XX
XX
XX
XX
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model) Financing Plan Financing
Soft loan
Major part of initial investment
Commercial Bank Loan
Private investment portion
repayment Avoiding cash flow financing to cover the repayment Setting less annual lease fees paid by SPV (operating company) Cost Sharing among Key Players
Civil works cost
Borne by the government and SOE
Less risks uncontrolled by SPV
HSR core systems
NOT to be separated
Avoiding the system system integration integration risk
(Delay in full operation due to integration of separated systems)
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model) PPP Model (Unit: trillion IDR)
Private Model
Gov
SOE
SPV
Gov
SPV
9.67
45.23
5.89
3.96
56.83
NOT Feasible Cash Flow for Private Model
Sub-Total
Direct Lending from donor to SOE (excluding management cost)
Share (%) to Total Project Cost
- Land Acquisition 6.5% - Engineering Services (ES-I) 1.2% - Management Management Cost 0.1% - VAT exemption exemption 8.2%
Land Acquisition
Deficit balance over almost all the project years Accumulated Loss in 2035: -91,675 billion Rp.
16%
74%
10%
6%
94%
Total Project Project Cost
60.79
60.79
EIRR (%)
12.50
12.50
FIRR (%)
0.97
14.93
4.90
Equity IRR (%)
109.69
Negative Net Cash Flow
Project IRR (%)
22.65
Negative Net Cash Flow
DSCR (Minimum)
1.52
Project Year: 50 year Social discount rate: 12% Economic Benefit: supplier benefit, reduction of travel costs, reduction of vehicle operation cost
Loan conditions SOE: interest rate 0.1%, 40 years repayment period (10 years grace period (assuming conditions of STEP Loan) SPV: interest rate 14%, 10 years repayment period Debt equity ratio of of SPV: 85 - 15
0.18
< Findings > Private model NOT feasible due to continuous cash flow financing Need concessionary loans such as STEP to reduce the financial cost Need availability payment to attract attract business entities to participation in the project
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model) Optimizing the cost sharing Unit: billiion IDR Breakdown
Item
P attern 1 (Base Case) Go v
SO E
Embankment
Cutting U type Retaining Wall Viaduct (Regular Bridge) s kr Bridge o W Tunnel (Mountain Tunneling) st il Shield Tunnel o C iv t C Cut and Cover ne Transverse me r Service Road uc or Environmental P rogram P / Sub-Total n oi Disaster P revention Equipment tc ur Track Works ts n Station Works o C Depot/ Workshop Electric Facility System/Automatic Fare Collection Signaling and Telecommunications Facility Rolling Stock Maintenance Equipment Preparation for Operation (1) Construction/Procurement Cost (2) Land Acquisition Cost (3) Consulting Service Cost (4) Management Cost (5) Contingency (6) Value-added Taxes Total Project Cost Percentage to Total Project Cost
0
P attern 2
SPV
2,114 766 167 8,178 419 5,266 6,402 881 422 358 165 25,138 196 3,193
Go v
0
SOE
0
2,114 766 167 8,178 419 5,266 6,402 881 422 358 165 25,138
1,371 3,611 5,584 339
1,269 5,584 339 3,535 3,490
3,535 3,490
0
41 4 1,550
216 196 5,317
3,962 680 68 34 4,921
1,397 139 2,147
9 ,6 65
45,23 3
16%
74%
P attern 3 SPV
0 196 3,193 1,371 2,342
39 3 9,354
266 27 279
3,962 680 68 34 4,921
1,288 129 2,032
5,88 9
9 ,6 65
42,80 3
70%
SPV
Gov
SOE
0
419 5,266 6,402 881 422 358 165 16,959 196 3,193
8,178
8, 8,178
0
419 5,266 6,402 881 422 358 165 16,959
1,371 3,611
3,611 5,584 339 3,535 3,490
5,584 339 3,535 3,490
0
36 3 6,907
376 38 394
3,962 680 68 34 4,921
1,575 157 1,924
8,32 1
9 ,6 65
16%
8, 8,178 196
3,193 1,371
216 196 9,961
14%
SPV
2,114 766 167 8,178
0
16%
SOE
2,114 766 167
216 196 7,513
10%
Go v
Pattern 4
0
33,100
216 196 13,767
89 9 502
3,962 680 68 34 4,921
1,384 138 1,724
279 28 702
40,56 3
1 0,561
9,66 5
3 6,34 7
1 4,777
67%
17%
60%
24%
Note: These figures are just for reference in order to examine the cost sharing among the government, SOE and SPV.
16%
Business Scheme and Implementation Plan (PPP Model) Optimizing the cost sharing Base Case
(Unit: trillion IDR)
Item Land Acquisition Engineering Services
Gov
Gov
SOE
SPV
Gov
SOE
Pattern 4 SPV
Gov
3.96
3.96
3.96
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.71
0.06
VAT VAT
4.94
Total
9.67 (16%)
Financing
SPV
Pattern 3
3.96
Construction & Others
Percentage to total project cost
SOE
Pattern 2
45.23
5.89
0.06
42.80
8.32
4.94 45.23 (74%)
5.89 (10%)
9.67 (16%)
60.79
0.06
40.56
10.56
4.94 42.80 (70%)
8.32 (14%)
9.67 (16%)
0.06
SPV
36.34
14.78
36.34 (60%)
14.78 (24%)
4.94 40.56 (67%)
10.56 (17%)
9.67 (16%)
60.79
60.79
SOE
60.79
L-ES
L-C
CBL
L-ES
L-C
CBL
L-ES
L-C
CBL
L-ES
L-C
CBL
GB
OB
E
GB
OB
E
GB
OB
E
GB
OB
E
VAT: Exemption by the Government
L-ES: L-ES: ODA ODA loan loan fo forr engin engineer eering ing servic services es L-C: ODA loan for construction E: Equity from investors
GB: Govern Governme ment nt budge budgett for for othe otherr part part OB: Own budget for management cost CBL: Commercial bank loan for debt portion
Economic Ec onomic and Financial Financial Analysis Analysis (PPP Model) Model) Optimizing the cost sharing Base Case Item
Gov
SOE
Pattern 2
SPV
Gov
SOE
Pattern 3
SPV
EIRR (%)
FIRR (%)
Gov
Pattern 4
S OE
SPV
0.98
9.91
Gov
SOE
SPV
0.97
8.69
12.50
0.97
14.93
0.97
12.35
Equity IRR (%)
109.69
62.80
24.71
19.08
Project IRR (%)
22.65
17.36
13.13
10.08
DSCR (Minimum)
1.52
1.11
0.76
-1.70
Debt : Equity = 85 : 15
BLANK
Overall Study Summary • • • • • • • • • •
• •
Travel Time: 37minutes between Jakarta and Bandung Route: 140 km between Jakarta – Gedebage Gedebage with 5 statio stations ns at opening Train Operations: 12 car trains (Capacity 925 pax.) Passengers: Passengers: 44,000 pax./day (2020) Fare (Jakarta – Bandung Bandung ): ): Rp 200,00 200,000 0 Decline of Road Traffic: Traffic: 30% in 2020, and 58% in 2030 (Jakarta - Bandung OD pair, pair, if no road construction construction is made) Multiplier Effect: Effect: Almost double of initial construction cost and 35,000 new employment creation Land Acquisition: 31ha of irrigated irrigated paddy field and 32ha of forest Project Cost: US$ 6,223 million Project Scheme: Public sector-led project funded its major part of initial investment with; − Concessional interest rate, and − Ultra-long term maturity (e.g. 40 years) EIRR: 12.50% (beyond Social benchmark of 12%) FIRR of SPV: 14.93% to 8.69% (SPV cost sharing: 10% to 24%) FIRR of SOE: 0.97% to 0.98% (SOE cost sharing: 60% to 74%) 74%)
Phase I Study Conclusions 1.
HSR Jakarta – Surabaya is necessary –
–
2.
Jakarta – Bandung is recommended as Priority 1 st Phase Section –
–
3.
Accelerating and spreading high economic and social development by reducing regional gaps among major cities Introducing an energy- and environment-friendly fast public transportation transportation mean compared to others
As the first section with a high potential considering funding, managing railway ability and demand Suitable for intensified technology transfer of HSR operation know-how and technology
Intr Introd oduc ucin ing g Jap Japan anese ese HSR HSR is is rele relev vant ant and and appr approp opri riat ate e –
–
–
Safety at at most importance - Japan having no passenger fatalities fatalities and even no injuries history over 50 years Technically most advanced - rich measures for earthquakes, steep steep gradient, humidity and small tunnel cross section technology. Reliable and Punctual Service - by highly reputed reputed Series E5 (Max.320km/h) (Max.320km/h) with 300km/h at the beginning of operation
Recommendations Recommend ations & Way Forward 1/2 1.
HSR Route to be Registered in Spatial Plans ans –
– –
2.
TOD plan at HSR station – considering transfer to/from feeder services and access to roads To regulate land use alongside the alignment To relax Floor to space index around stations
HSR Project to Start NOW − Long preparation period is required to make legislations and regulations − Rapid urbanization will make make it difficult to conduct land acquisition of
suitable route
3.
Lan Land Ac Acquisition to to be be Co Conducted in in Qu Quick Ma Manner –
–
Compensation generated generated exclusivel exclusivelyy by Public Projects - Undergroundpass, Reduction of income tax, etc Compulsory Land Acquisition Law - Enactment and enforcemen enforcementt
Recommendations & Way Forward 2/2 4. PPP Pro Projec jectt Enabli Enabling ng Fra Frame mewo work rk to to be well well Int Intro roduc duced ed − −
Improvement of PPP regulations on government support to ridership risk Improvement (provision of availability payment ) Direct lending allowed to SOEs for Infrastructure Infrastructure Projects
5. Instit Instituti utiona onall Buildi Building ng for for HSR HSR to be Conduc Conducte ted d Soon Soon − HSR-A for technology and safety: Basic specification, Pre-Opening
processes, Drivers license, Safety and investigation development of HSR infrastructure and facilities − SOE Establishment for development
6. Capacit Capacity y Build Building ing for for HSR-A HSR-A and SOE to be done done accor accordin dingly gly − −
HSR-A: Technical assistance to develop technical regulations and standards and certification systems SOE: Engineering services to support technical aspects of HSR
7. Possib Possible le New and Innov Innovati ative ve Financ Financing ing Tool Toolss to be Expl Explore ored d −
Possible financing sources in future – Partial Risk Guarantee, REIT, LVC, Town Planning Scheme and Station Area Development
Possible Financing Resources in Future Conventional Financing Fi nancing Menu Conventional From Indonesia PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (“IIF”)
Equity/Lending IIFF Lending - PT SMI with Partners (e.g. SMBC, MUFG) PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (“IIGF”) Guarantee Municipal Bond Issue
Innovative Innovative Financial Menu
From Japan (possibility) To Public Portion JICA ODA (Untied, STEP Loan) To Private Portion JICA PSIF Equity/Loan JBIC Export, Investm Investment ent Loan JOIN Equity Investme Investment nt Japanese Bank Infra Finance Case: Private Sector Finance with Partial Risk Gurantee
Constru Constructi ction on Period Period L oa oa n D is is bu bu rs rs em em e en nt
O&M Period Period L oa oa n R ep ep ay ay me me nt nt
Pa rt rt ia ia l R is is k G ua ua ra ra nt nt e ee e
Partial Risk Guarantee Private Sector Bank Loan – rather short for
Infrastructure Finance “Partial Risk World Bank & JBIC – Offering “Partial Guarantee” beyond the period Private Sector Bank can assume
Real Estate Investment Trust(REIT)/
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Case: Case: ODA ODA LOAN LOAN + REIT REIT
Constru Constructi ction on Period Period Lo an an D is is bu bu rs rs em em e en nt
(10 years years of grac grace) e)
O&M Period Period Gr ac ace Pe riri o od d
Lo an an Re pa pa ym ym e en nt
REIT
Infrastructure Investment Trust(InvIT) listed to stock exchange, “a perpetual certificate 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Possible Financing Resources in Future Value Capture Financing Land Value
HSR Impact to Regional Growth
Financing Mechanism Capturing Future
Land Value Monetizing and Facilitating Infra / Urban
Development Implementation Well developed developed in USA, Japan and India
New Way of Financial Resources
Suitable for PPP Projects Attractive to both Public and Private Sector Development-based Development-b ased LVC and Tax-based LVC
Population Growth (1975 - 1995) Company Number Growth (1975 - 1991) Local Gov't Receipt Growth (1980 - 1993)
National
HSR Stations
Average
32 %
1 2%
46 %
2 1%
15 5%
11 0%
Source: Shinkansen’s Local Impact, Impact, 2010, Christopher Hood, Oxford Univ.
(1) Town Town Planning Scheme Sch eme (TPS) No land acquisition necessary, but Local municipalities, railway station owners and
land owners are invited
(2) Station Development HSR/Railway HSR/Railway Stations are not only Entry /
Departing Points for Passengers. Stations Facilities for Passengers but also Visitors to Stations
Cities with
Enhancing business opportunities of local companies
Implement Implem entatio ation n Sched Schedule ule (Cons (Conserva ervative tive Case) Case) Groundbreaking 2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Responsible Entity
(1) Policy and Legal (Enabling) Framework Amendment Amendment of law for direct lending to SOE
MoF MoF
Improvement Improvement of PPP regulations regulations for Availability Payment
MoF, Bappenas
Development Deve lopment of presidenti al decr decree ee on HSR-A & SOE establis hment
MoT, MoF, MoBUMN
(2) Institutional Building Building Preparing for establishmen establishmentt of HSR-A
▼Establishment
MoT MoT
Development Deve lopment of technica l regulatio regulations ns and standards of HSR
HSR-A
Prepari ng for establis hment hment of SOE (Development Company) Company)
▼Establishment
MoT MoT
(3) Capacity Building Building For government offici als on HSR development (legal, technical, safety, etc.)
Coordination by CMEA
For HSR-A on technical regulations regulations and standards standards and supervision of development and operation operat ion
HSR-A
For SOE (development company) on design, procurement procurement and supervision of construction works
SOE
On-Site
For operation company company (Training in the the classroom & On-Site)
SPV
(4) Poss ible New (and Innovative Innovative ) Financial Tools Consideration of possible possible financial resources in future
Coordination by CMEA
Detail design (Pro ject Implementation Implementation with PPP)
Management Management by SO E
Tendering process
Inauguration ▼
Construction works, rolling stock procurement procurement and pre-operation Phase II Study [ Engineering Services (ES) ]
Management Management by SO E Supervised by SOE Donor & Consultant
ES - I ES - II
Donor & Consultant
Implementation Implementat ion Schedule (Accelerat (Accelerated ed Case) Ground Breaking 2019
‘Go Sign’ by Government of Indonesia 2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Responsible Entity
(1) Policy and Legal (Enabling) Framework Amendment Amendment of law for direct lending to SOE
MoF MoF
Improvement of PPP regulations regulations for Availabili ty Payment
MoF, Bappenas
Development Develo pment of presidentia l decree on HSR-A HSR-A & SOE establishment
MoT, MoF, MoBUMN
(2) Institutional Building Preparing Prepari ng for establishment of HSR-A
MoT MoT
▼Establishment
Development Develo pment of technical regulations and standards of HSR
HSR-A
Preparing Prepari ng for establishment esta blishment of SOE (Development Company) Company)
▼Establishment
MoT MoT
(3) Capacity Building Building For government officia ls on HSR development (legal, technical, safety, etc.)
Coordination by CMEA
For HSR-A on technical regulations and standards and supervisio n of development and operation operati on
HSR-A
For SOE (development company) company) on design, procurement and supervis ion of construction construc tion works
SOE
On-Site
For operati on company company (Training in the classroo m & On-Site)
SPV
(4) Possible New (and Innovative) Financial Tools Consideration of possible possible financial resources in future future
Coordination by CMEA
Detail design (Project Implementation with PPP)
Management Management by S OE
Tendering process Construction works, rolling stock procurement procurement and pre-operation Phase II Study [ Engineering Services (ES) ]
Inauguration
Management Management by S OE
▼
Supervised by SOE Donor & Consultant
ES - I ES - II
Donor & Consultant
Terima Kasih
HSR Transportation capacity corresponds to 10 lanes toll road
APPENDIX
Concept of Transport Network With High Speed Railway Development
TOD (Transit Oriented Development) is recommended centering on the new HSR stations.
DKI Jakarta
Bekasi
Cikarang
Bandung and Gedebage
