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2491 Indian Journal of Science and Technology
Vol. 5
No.4
(Apr 2012)
ISSN: 0974- 6846
MeteorologicalpredictionspreservedinthePanchangam versus real-timeobservations–acasestudyover Tirupatiregion–asemi-aridtropicalsiteinIndia 1*
2
1
VanadeepK ,SadaSivaMurtyR andKrishnaiahM 1
DepartmentofPhysics,SriVenkateswaraUniversity,Tirupat DepartmentofPhysics,SriVenkateswara University,Tirupati517502,AndhraPr i517502,AndhraPradesh,India adesh,India 2 RashtriyaSanskritaVidyaPeetha,Tirupati517502 RashtriyaSanskritaVidyaP eetha,Tirupati517502,AndhraPradesh,India ,AndhraPradesh,India 1 2 1
[email protected] *,
[email protected] ,
[email protected]
Abstract Panchangam is the tradi traditio tional nal Hindu Hindu Alman Almanac ac that that has been been in practic practice e for 5,000years 5,000years. . Inval Invaluab uable le meteo meteorol rologi ogical cal predictionsareensh predictionsareenshrinedinit.Theyaregener rinedinit.Theyaregeneralizedover alizedovera a region,basedonastrolog region,basedonastrologicalphenom icalphenomenalikeplanetenalikeplanet-star star conj conjun uncti ction ons, s, tran transi sits ts, , etc. etc. Five Five comp compon onen ents ts of Panchangam, namely ly Tithi Panchangam, name Tithi, , Vaar Vaaram am, , Naks Naksha hatr tram am, , Yoga Yogam m and and Karanam,alongwith Karanam,alongwith otherterms,havebeen otherterms,havebeen explained.Astrolo explained.Astrologica gicalcondition lconditionsfavouringscanty sfavouringscanty andcopiousrainfall havebeen enlisted. enlisted. General General climaticsummaryof climaticsummaryof Panchangam months months duringtheperio duringtheperiodof dof study(1992 study(1992-200 -2004)has 4)has beenfurnished.Panchangam beenfurnished.Panchangamyearstartsfrom yearstartsfromChaitram Chaitram(April)andendswith (April)andendswithPhaalgunam Phaalgunam(March).Popular (March).Popular‘Pidaparthi ‘Pidaparthi Panchangam’wasusedforthisstudy.Toestimaterainfallquantity,anancientunit‘ Panchangam’wasusedforthisstudy.Toestimaterainfallquantity,anancientunit‘ Aadhakam’wasemployed,whichis Aadhakam’wasemployed,whichis equivalentto1.6cmofraingauge.Maximumrainfallonanydayoftheyea equivalentto1.6cmofraingauge .Maximumrainfallonanydayoftheyear,meanannualrainfall,averageSouth-West r,meanannualrainfall,averageSouth-West andNorth-Eastmonsoonrainfall,meanmonsoonalrainfall,rainfallbasedonplanetaryreign,dominantcloudtypeand resultantrainfallnature,directionofcloudoriginandwindvelocityoverTirupati resultantrainfallnature,directionofcloudoriginandwindvelocityover Tirupatiregion,whichisasemi-aridtropicalsite region,whichisasemi-aridtropicalsite situatedinthestateofAndhraPradeshinIndia,werecomparedwith Panchangampredictions,usingdataprovidedby Panchangampredictions,usingdataprovidedby IndiaMeteorologica IndiaMeteorological l Department Department (IMD).Correlat (IMD).Correlationof ionof individual individual observation observations s withPanchangam withPanchangampredictions,ranged predictions,ranged from from 9.7% 9.7% to 94.4 94.4%. %. Overa Overall ll, , duri during ng stud study y perio period, d, succe success ss rate rate of Panchangam predic prediction tions s set agains against t modern modern observationswasabout57%. Keywords:Panchangam,Naksh Keywords:Panchangam,Nakshatram,Conjunction,P atram,Conjunction,Planetaryreign,Meteorologicalpred lanetaryreign,Meteorologicalprediction. iction. Introduction (i) Theoreticalmethods From times immemorial, Indians have been (ii) Observationalmethods. employing employing phenomena phenomena like nature nature observatio observation, n, study of Theoretical methods employ astronomical or omensand omensand prognostics, prognostics, examinatio examinationof nof winds,analyzin winds,analyzing g planetaryfacto planetaryfactorsandpertaintocomputat rsandpertaintocomputationofplanetar ionofplanetary y thecloud patterns, patterns, planetaryposition planetarypositions s andconjunctions andconjunctions, , positionsandconjunc positionsandconjunctionofplanets tionofplanetsandstars(Mishra andstars(Mishraet et nakshatram (star) influences and other aspects of al., 2002). The observational methods deal with astrology,forpredictingandforecastingtheweather.The atmo tmospheric changes, inc including cloud forms (sky mostimportantdeciding factor in meteorologi meteorological cal studies studies feat featur ures es) ) and and bio biologi logica cal l and and phen phenol olog ogic ical al indi indica cattors ors is the the estim stimat atio ion n of the the quan quanti tity ty of rainfa infalll beca becaus use e (Mishraetal., (Mishraetal.,2002). 2002). espe especi cial ally ly in a coun countr try y like like Indi India, a, near nearly ly 70% 70% of the the Theterm Vedam has itsorigin in the root root word word vid popula population tion relies relies almost almost exclus exclusive ively ly on agricu agricultu lture re and and which means ‘to know’. know’. Hence theVedas the Vedas aregiventhe agricultura agricultural l productionin productionin India solely solely depends depends uponthe utmo utmost st reve revere renc nce e as ‘sto ‘store re hous houses es and and trea treasu sure res s of monsoonrainfall.Hence,accurateandastutepredictions knowledge’,aspopularEnglishsayinggoes,"Knowingis are are inev inevit itab able le for for adequ dequat ate e prep prepa arati ratio ons (San (Sand deep everything" everything". . Thereare sixVedangams six Vedangams which aremeant Acharya,2011)forfarmingand thesebecomeevenmore to support, support, enhance,augment, enhance,augment, preserve preserve andprotectthe indispensab indispensable le to avertlosses in agro forestry forestry resources resources Vedasandtheprinciplesenshrinedinthem.Astheword Vedas andtheprinciplesenshrinedinthem.Astheword during during times times of advers adverse e weath weather er condit condition ions s and natura natural l angam stands stands for ‘organ’ ‘organ’ inSanskrit inSanskrit, , these theseVedangams Vedangams cala calami miti ties es in many many regi region ons s of the the eart earth h (Ga (Galacg lacgac ac & can bedeclared bedeclared tobe the six limbs limbs oftheVedas. ofthe Vedas. They Balisacan,2009). arelistedasfollows: Despitetheextensive Despitetheextensive useofsophisticated useofsophisticated advanced advanced 1. Siksha (deals (deals with with the study study of sounds sounds and syllab syllable le tech techn nolo ology incl includ udin ing g sate satell llit ite es, weath eather er pred redicti iction on pronunciations) models,etc.,theirsuccessrateisminimalandtheyoften 2. Chandas (deals with innumerable innumerable meters meters associated associated failto placethemselves placethemselves in considerable considerable proximityto proximityto the withVedicandSanskritslokams withVedicandSanskrit slokams) ) actualoccurrence.Eventually,themethodsenshrinedin 3. Vyakaranam (deals with grammar as well as ancienttextsarebeingfollowedtilldateinsomeplacesto structuresofwordsandsentences) guesstimate guesstimate themysterious themysterious trends trends of rainfalland rainfalland onthe 4. Niruktam (elaborates on the meaning and whole,of whole,of the weathe weather. r. Weathe Weather r lore lore has thus thus remain remained ed interpretationofintricatewordsandphrases) an impo import rtan ant t form form of local local fore foreca cast stin ing g in many many area areas s 5. Jyotisham (deals with the study of the transit sits, throughcenturies(Burghart,2000). conjunctionsetcetera conjunctionsetceteraofcelestia ofcelestialbodieslike lbodiesliketheSun, theSun, Indigenousmethodsofweatherforecastinginancient the Moon, planets,comets planets,comets andstars as well as their their scripturescanbebroadlyclassifiedintotwocategories: infl influe uenc nces es on the the mank mankin ind d and and on the the eart earth h as a Research article arti cle Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
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Vanadeep et al. Indian J.Sci.Technol. J.Sci.Technol.
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whole. Based on these predictions, auspicioustimes fortheperformanceofvariousritualsaredetermined) 6. Kalpam(dealswithvarioussacrifices,ceremoniesand rituals(frombirthtodeath),associatedwithday-to-day life) The classical Hindu astrological almanac known as Panchangam, prepared for public use from Vedanga Jyotishyamperiod(1,400BC–1,300BC)(Sivaprakasam & Kanakasabai, 2009) stands out as the best exemplification for ancient traditional texts that employ theoretical methods. The book published yearly gives information on daily basis and extensively used by the astrologers for making astrological calculations and the farmers to start the farming activity based on the prediction of rainfall (Bharadwaj Dinesh, 2004). More significantly, the generation of hydro-electric power in Indiaisentirelyatthemercyofmonsoonrainfall. Kanani and Pastakia Astad(1999) opinedthat there was a need to identify and test old literature and oral traditions across different climatic zones. Comparative studieswereundertakenbycorrelatingthePanchangam predictionswiththeactualrainfallrecordedbyIMD(Misra et al., 2002). Nakshatram (Star) also has considerable influenceontheamountofrainfall(Deetal.,2004). Rain forecasting based on Panchangam or Hindu Almanac is a common practice among farmers (Ravi Shankar et al, 2008).However, it has been a prevalent notion that local forecasting combines empirical observations and spiritual insights that draw from a variety of religious traditions (Roncoli et al., 2001). Hence,theneedofthehouristointegratethetraditional and scientific weather forecast systems to develop a comprehensively decisive mechanism for rainfall predictioninthecomingyears. In the present study, the traditional weather predictionsofthePanchangamforaperiodof12years, from1992-2004 were compareda nd correlatedwith the actual recorded values over Tirupati region, a worldrenownedpilgrimagecentreinIndia. Materialsandmethods Significanceofthenumber12 Thedayiscomposedof24hours,usuallydividedinto twohalvesof12hourseach,i.e.,forenoonandafternoon. TheSun’stransitthroughthetwelvezodiacconstellations constitute a solar year of 12 months (One constellation per month). The contemporary Gregorian calendar also has12months. The number 12 has a great prominence in Indian heritage.Aperiodof12yearsiscalleda“Pushkaram”in Sanskrit. Many great world-renowned festivities like Kumbha MelaofAllahabad,etc.areheldonceinevery 12 years. SpecialPushkaram celebrations forriverslike Ganga, Yamuna, Krishna, Kaveri, Godavari, Tungabhadra, et ceteraareorganizedbytherespective state governments of India with great pageantry and grandeur. Moreover, the first year of study 1992 marks the year of the pious Pushkaram celebrations of the Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
No.4
(Apr 2012)
ISSN: 0974- 6846
perennialKrishnariverofAndhraPradesh.Theperiodof studywasfrom1992to2004,foraperiodof12years. TheSolarCycleintheSunhasadurationof11-12 years approximately wherein the Sun undergoes significantchangesintemperature,sunspots,emissionof solar flares and its magnetic field, where the north and thesouthpolesoftheSunarereversedandinterchanged (This is anticipated in mid-2012 as forecasted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration; NASA) andothers. Right from the Vedic period, the Sun was attributed withtwelvenamesandforms,oneforeverymonth.They are called Dwaadasa Aadityas [Dwaadasa means ‘Twelve’inSanskritandtheword‘ Aaditya’standsforthe ‘Sun’,whoisbelievedtobetheSonof Aditi,theMotherof Gods(Devatas)]whicharelistedinTable1. JupitertakesoneEarthYeartotraversethroughone Zodiac constellation (perceived from Earth’s time perspective) andby thetime it traversesthroughall the 12 constellations and completes one sidereal revolution aroundtheSun,itexhausts12EarthYears.The(Earth) Year calculated on the basis of Jupiter’s revolution is called a “Jovian (Jupiter) or Barhaspatya year”. Hence, fiverevolutionsofJupiteraroundtheSunisthebasisfor constitutingthe60-(Earth)yearcyclewhichisinvoguein thetraditionalPanchangams. Besides, in Hindu Mythology and numerology, Lord Vishnu,TheSustaineramongtheHinduTrinity,issaidto bethePresidingDeityofthisnumberandhence,thisis revered as one of the most pious and auspicious numbersinIndia. Fig.1.MapofIndiashowingtheplaceofstudy,Tirupati (markedasaredpoint)situatedintheStateofAndhra Pradesh(shadedinorange)
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No.4
(Apr 2012)
ISSN: 0974- 6846
It is also believed that exactly at 12:00 PM in the 3. Nakshatram(Star/StarClusterinwhichmoonis afternoon, when the Sun is at the Zenith from our placed/alignedatthatparticulartime) perspective, Abhijit star is on the ascendancy which is 4. Yogam(Auspiciousness) called “Abhijit muhurtham”. When no other Muhurtam 5. Karanam(halfaTithi) (Auspicious time)is tobe identified during the day, this Tithi(LunarDay) particulartimeisconsideredtobealwaysauspiciousfor A tithi isan exactlunar day, whichis approximately marriages and other such pious ceremonies and also one-thirtieth of the time it takes the moon to orbit the believedtobringaboutvictories,byHindus. earth. Mathematically, eachtithi representsa 12-degree Placeofstudy:Tirupati,AndhraPradesh,India longitudinalseparationbetweenthesunandthemoon.A Tirupatiistheabodeoftherichestshrineintheworld tithi may vary inlength from day to day. There are 15 thatofLordVenkateswara,situatedinChittoordistrictof tithis in each fortnight. Their names are: Andhra Pradesh at an average altitude of 182.9 meters Padyami/Prathama, Vidiya/Dvitiya, Tadiya/Tritiya, o 0 above sea level at 13.39 N latitude and 79.25 E Chaviti/Chaturthi,Panchami, Shasthi, Saptami, Ashtami, longitude, as in Fig.1. This is a semi-arid region with Navami, Dasami, Ekadasi, Dvadasi, Trayodasi, prevalentcontinental typeof climate. Thistemplecity is Chaturdasi and Amavasya/Purnima. Purnima, full-moon an internationally renowned,spiritual, educational anda day, is the fifteenth tithi of the bright fortnight, and buzzing commercial centre surrounded by industrial and Amavasya,new-moonday,isthefifteenthtithiofthedark agriculturalenvirons. fortnight. (In many Panchangams, the new moon is Broadly,inayear,Tirupatihasthreedistinctseasons: numberedasthethirtiethtithi). Summer (March-May), Monsoon (July-September), and Table2.SolardayswiththeirEnglishcounterpartsandruling planets winter(November-January).February,JuneandOctober English RulingPlanet months are considered to be transition periods with SolarDay(Vaaram) Counterpart (King) relatively stable weather conditions with sunny days. Bhaanu(Ravi)vaaram Sunday Sun Geographically, since Tirupati is in proximity to the coastal regions of Nellore and Chennai, this region Indu(Soma)vaaram Monday Moon receives prominent amounts of rainfall whenever there Mangala(Bhouma) Tuesday Mars arecyclonicformationsintheBayofBengal,offthecoast vaaram of Chennai and coastal Nellore. Due to this, alongwith Budha(Soumya) Wednesday Mercury the South-West monsoon, the North-East monsoon vaaram (October-December) also brings copious rains to this Guru(Brihaspati) Thursday Jupiter vaaram region. Table1.ThetwelveAdityasandtheirrulingperiods The12 Adityas Ruling Month Lunar Month 1
Dhaata
March–April
Chaitram
2
Aryama
April–May
Vaisakham
3
Mitra
May–June
Jyeshtham
4 5 6
Varuna Indra Vivasvan
June–July July–August Aug–Sept
Ashadham Sravanam Bhadrapadam
7
Tvashtha
Sept–Oct
Aswayujam
8
Vishnu
Oct–Nov
Karthikam
9
Amshuman
Nov–Dec
Margasirsham
10
Bhaga
Dec–Jan
Pushyam
11
Pusha
Jan–Feb
Maagham
12
Parjana
Feb–March
Phalgunam
Panchangam,theHindualmanac When we consider the etymology of the word ‘Panchangam’, the Sanskritwordmeans ‘the onewhich consists of five organs/limbs’ (Pancha means ‘five’ and angastandsfor‘organorlimb’).Panchangamdealswith thefiveattributesofHinducalendar.Theyare: 1. Tithi(LunarDay) 2. VaaramorVaasaram(SolarDay) Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
Sukravaaram
Friday
Venus
Shanivaaram
Saturday
Saturn
VaaramorVaasaram(SolarDay) The traditional Hindu calendar also recognizes the solar day,Vaaram or Vaasaram. The vaasaram begins withsunrise(atabout6:00AM)andendswithsunrisethe nextday,basedontherotationoftheearthonitsaxis. Eachsolardayisdividedinto24horas(hours).Horasare assigned to the planets in their descending sidereal period. Thereare sevendays in the week, and each is most strongly influenced bya particular planet whichis tabulatedinTable2. Nakshatram(Star) InHinduastrology,theterm‘nakshatram’refersto27 particularstars/star-clusters,aslistedinTable3,whichlie alongtheecliptic.Theeclipticistheapparentyearlypath oftheSunasseenfromtheearth. ‘Na’inSanskritstands for ‘negation (not)’ and ‘Kshatam’ means ‘destructible’. Hence Nakshatram means an ‘indestructible entity’.The rootword ‘tra’ in Sanskrit stands for ‘protection’. On the consummate, Nakshatramtherefore signifies ‘something thatisitselfindestructibleandprotects’or,inotherwords, ‘that which safeguards everything from being destroyed or perished’. From these, we can effortlessly presume that, by providing this particular nomenclature of Nakshatramtoastar,ourancestralthink-tankwaswell
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Table3.Nakshatramsandtheirmoderncounterparts NakshatramNamein StarNameinModern AncientAstrology Astronomy 1 Ashwini BetaArietis 2 Bharani 41Arietis 3 Krittika Alcyone-2-Pleiades 4 5
Rohini Mrigasira
Aldebaran LambdaOrionis
6
Ardra
Betelguese7
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Punarvasu Pushyami Aslesha Makha PurvaPhalguni UttaraPhalguni Hasta Chitra Swati Visakha
Pollux11 DeltaCancri EpsilonHydrae AlphaLeonis DeltaLeonis BetaLeonis DeltaCorvi Spica16 Arcturus17 Alpha-2-Libra
17 Anuradha
DeltaScorpionis
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
AlphaScorpionis LambdaScorpionis DeltaSagittari SigmaSagittari AlphaAquibe AlphaDelphia LambdaAqurii
Jyeshtha Mula Purvashadha Uttarashadha Sravana Dhanishtha Shatabhishak PurvaProshtapada 25 (Purvabhaadra) UttaraProshtapada 26 (Uttaraabhaadra) 27 Revathi
AlphaPegasi GammaPegasi ZetaPiscium
versed with the life-sustaining nature ofa star(e.g.,the Sun) from eons of time. This property of a star was realizedbythewesternastronomersveryrecently. Whenaplanetcomesintoalignmentwithoneofthe starsfromtheviewofanindividualontheearth,therays ofthestarscombinewiththoseoftheplanettoinfluence Table4.SevenNaadisandtheirassociatedeffecton weather Saptaa(Seven)Naadis Effectonweather BrightSunshinewithno 1 Chanda/VaataNaadi rainfall;Windy Vaayu/Athivaata SunshineandColdWind 2 Naadi withnormalrainfall StronghotWinds Vanhi/Agni/Dahana 3 (Westerlies)withincrease Naadi intemperature 4 SoumyaNaadi NormalRainfall 5 NeeraNaadi Verygoodrainfall 6 JalaNaadi AbundantRainfall Heavytoveryheavyand 7 AmritaNaadi copiousrainfall,causing floods Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
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the earth. All of the planets, one after another, pass through the ecliptic and align with each of the 27 nakshatrams.Themostimportant“nakshatram”(star/star cluster) is the one with which the moon is currently aligned, as the moon’s influence issaidto bethe most influentialondailylifeonEarth. All the nakshatramsgivenin Hinducalendararefor the Moon. This means that the nakshatram currently in effectistheonethattheMoonhas“conjoined.”(Similarly, thecurrentraasi,theZodiacsign/Constellation,istheone that the moon has conjoined), (Satguru Sivaya Subramuniyaswami, 1997). The Hindu mythological legend has it that these 27 stars are the wives of the Moon, who is said to have exceptional affinity towards Rohiniamongthem.Hence,theconjunctionofMoonwith Rohini starhas beenattributed a distinctive prominence in astrology and is believedto have momentous impact onweatherphenomena. Based on the effectsand results producedby these 27 stars on the Earth and Mankind, the stars are classifiedintovariouscategoriesbyancientseers: 1. Light: Ashwini,PushyaandHasta 2. Soft:Mrigasira,Chitra,AnuradhaandRevathi 3. Fixed: Rohini, Uttara Phalguni, Uttarashadha and UttaraProshtapada(Uttaraabhaadra) 4. Moveable:Punarvasu,Swati,Sravana,Dhanishtha andShatabhishak 5. Sharp: Ardra,Aslesha,JyeshthaandMula 6. Dreadful: Bharani, Makha, Purva Phalguni, Purvashadha and Purva Proshtapada (Purvaabhaadra) 7. Mixed:KrittikaandVisakha TheseNakshatrams arealsocalled‘LunarMansions or houses or stations’ with respect to the moon’s conjunctionwiththem.Ingeneral,theyarecalledbythe name‘Asterisms’. (Further, it is to be noted that, to this group of 27 nakshatrams, one more nakshatram namely, Abhijit is sometimes added towards the end of Uttarashadha nakshatram.AbhijitissituatedintheregionofVegastar in the constellation of Lyra. Since this star is not encounteredonthepathoftheSun(SolarEcliptic)asall theother27nakshatramsare,thiscanbeignoredwhile considering the main nakshatrams in astrology and Panchangam.Itisalsobelievedthatexactlyat12:00PM intheafternoon,whentheSunisattheZenithfromour perspective, Abhijit star is on the ascendancy which is called “Abhijit muhurtham”. When no other Muhurtam (Auspicious time)is to beidentifiedduring the day, this particulartimeisconsideredtobealwaysauspiciousfor marriages and other such pious ceremonies and also believedtobringaboutvictories,byHindus). Karanam InSanskrit,a‘Karanam’ refersto‘actionsthatcould beexecutedatthatprécisepointoftime’.Anoverviewof the karanams in the panchangam would prefigure the qualityoftimetoperforma givenactivityatthatinstance
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and the ensuing consequences accrued from them. A karanam is half of a tithi or lunar day. There are two karanamsinasingle tithi.The Karanamiscalculatedto be6degreesoflongitudinalseparationbetweentheSun and the Moon. Here, one may recall that a Tithi is calculated to be 12 degrees of longitudinal separation between the sun and the moon. The names of the 11 karanams that rotate through the 30 tithis of a lunar monthare:Bhava,Balava,Kaulava,Taitila,Gara,Vanij, Visti,Sakuni,Chatuspada,NagaandKimtughna. Yogam In Sanskrit, Yogam means a ‘union’. So, it is a planetaryconfiguration,unionorrelationship.The yogam is a factor used by astrologers for determining the auspiciousnessoftheday.Thisis anangleofthe sun and the moon withthe earthbeing the pointof the angle. Yogam is the period during which the combined longitudinalmotionoftheSunandtheMoonamountsto 0 1 13 20 (13 degrees and 20 minutes). Hence, this truly represents the Luni-Solar aspect of the Panchangam. Like the nakshatrams, there are 27 yogas. They are: Vishakambha, Priti, Ayushman, Saubhagya, Sobhana, Atiganda,Sukarma,Dhriti,Sula, Ganda,Vriddhi,Dhruva, Vyaghat, Harshana, Vajra, Siddhi, Vyatipatha, Variyan, Parigha, Siva, Siddha, Sadhya, Subha, Sukla, Brahma, IndraandVaidhriti. From these, we can infer that Tithi, Yogam and Karanam are alla measure of the relationship between theSunandtheMoon.InHinduAstrology,boththeSun andtheMoonhavebeenperceivedtocastanimmense influence on daily life and thus, their motions and conjunctionsarepreciselycalculated. Raasi(Moon/SunSign) Raasi in Sanskrit means a ‘grouping or conglomeration’.Thisisthereasonwhyaconstellationis called a raasi in astrology. Itis the zodiacsignthrough whichthemooncurrentlypassesthrough.Thisisdenoted bythedegree(angle)ofthemoonsignasperceivedat 06:00 AM inthe morning. It isa known fact that moon o travels12 perday.The12raasisare: 1. Mesha(Aries); 2. Vrshabha(Taurus) 3. Mithuna(Gemini) 4. Karkataka(Cancer) 5. Simha(Leo) 6. Kanya(Virgo) 7. Thula(Libra) 8. Vrischika(Scorpio) 9. Dhanush(Sagittarius) 10.Makara(Capricorn) 11.Kumbha(Aquarius) 12.Meena(Pisces) TheSuntakesaboutonemonthtotraversethrough eachofthetwelvezodiacsignsmentionedabove,which constitutethe12monthsofasolaryear.Likewise,there are 12 lunar months or maasams based on the nakshatram (star/star cluster) with which moon is Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
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conjoined on the day of Purnima or Full moon day (as perceivedbyanobserverontheearth).Theyare: 1. Chaitram(March-April) 2. Vaisaakham(April-May) 3. Jyeshtham(May-June) 4. Aashaadham(June-July) 5. Sraavanam(July-August) 6. Bhaadrapadam(August-September) 7. Aaswayujam(September-October) 8. Kaarthikam(October-November) 9. Maargaseersham(November-December) 10.Pousham(December-January) 11.Maagham(January-February) 12.Phaalgunam(February-March) Theactualdurationsofthemonthsmentionedabove mayslightlyvarydependinguponthetransittimeofthe lunarmotionthroughtheNakshatrams(Stars). Thenomenclature‘Monsoon’hasbeenderivedfrom the Arabic word ‘Mausam’ which has its root in the Sanskritterm‘Maasam’. Paksham(Fortnight) Thelunar monthis the durationof one revolution of themoonaroundtheearth.Thisperiodisdividedintotwo pakshams (fortnights) as mentioned below. In Sanskrit, pakshammeans‘partial’. 1.Bright Fortnight (Shukla Paksham): The period of waxingofmoontillFullMoon(Purnima) 2.Dark Fortnight (Krishna Paksham): The period of waningofmoontillNewMoon( Amavasya) Ayanam Eachyearisdividedintotwohalves,eachknownas Ayanam. It is the six month period-Uttarayanam and Dakshinayanam. Ayanam in Sanskrit stands for ‘path’. Uttarayanam begins on the day of the winter solstice, normallyDecember21,whenthesunbeginsitsapparent northward journey (Uttaram in Sanskrit means ‘North’). Dakshinayanam begins on the first day of the summer solstice, normally June 21, marking Sun’s southward movement (Dakshinam means ‘South’ in Sanskrit). The twodays commencingthe twoayanams areconsidered extremelyauspiciousbyHindus. Samvatsaram(Year) According to the traditional Hindu Almanac (Panchangam),thereare60yearsinall.Thisisbasedon the time Jupiter takesto complete 5 revolutionsaround the Sun. Jupiter travels through the 12 Zodiac constellations (Raasis) to complete one sidereal revolution around the Sun. The duration of this one sidereal revolution (one year) of Jupiter is equivalent to the time taken by the earth to complete 12 sidereal revolutions,i.e. OneJupiterYear=TwelveEarthYears FiveJupiterYears=SixtyEarthYears ItmeansthatJupitertakesoneEarthYeartotraverse throughoneZodiacconstellation(perceivedfromEarth’s timeperspective)andbythetimeittraversesthroughall the 12 constellations and completes one sidereal
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revolution around the Sun, it would have exhausted 12 isusedfordeterminingthedatesofreligiousfestivalsand EarthYears.The(Earth)Yearcalculatedonthebasisof forselectingauspicioustimesforbeginningmanysocioJupiter’s revolution is called a “Jovian (Jupiter) or religious activities. Vedic Calendar uses both the solar Barhaspatya year” and this system is known as month and the lunar month and would be known as a “BarhaspatyavarshaorJovian(Jupiter)Yearsystem”. “Luni-Solar Calendar”. For business purposes and Hence, five revolutions of Jupiter around the Sun modern convenience, we use the Gregorian year which constitute the 60-year cycle which is in vogue in the follows neither a solarmonth system nor a lunarmonth traditional panchangams, the list of which is given as system(SatguruSivayaSubramuniyaswami,1997). follows: Prabhava, Vibhava, Sukla, Pramoda, Prajapati, Rutu(Season) Table5.ThesixRutus(Seasons)inIndia Angirasa, Srimukha, Bhava, Yuva, Dhatri, Isvara, Bahudhanya, Pramathi, Vikrama, Vrisha, Chitrabhanu, Rutua(Season) Season Months Subhanu,Tarana,Parthiva,Vyaya,Sarvajit,Sarvadharin, 1 Vasanta Spring March to April VirodhiVikrita,Khara,Nandana,Vijaya,Jaya,Manmatha, 2 Greeshma Summer May to June Durmukha,Hemalamba,Vilamba,Vikarin,Sarvari,Plava, Varsha/ Julyto 3 RainySeason Subhakrit, Sobhana, Krodhin, Visvavasu, Parabhava, Pravrut September Palavanga, Kilaka, Sowmya, Sadharana, Virodhakrit, Septemberto 4 Sarath Autumn Paridhavi,Pramadin,Ananda,Rakshasa,Anala(orNala), November Pingala, Kalayukta, Siddharthi, Raudra, Durmati, Novemberto 5 Winter Hemantha Dundubhi, Rudhirodgari, Raktaksha, Krodhana and January Akshaya(Equatedtoearthyearsinpractice). Treesshedtheir Januaryto 6 leavesandWinter Sisira Hence, it is conventional in India to celebrate the March isatitspeak occasion of the completion of 60 years of age/life by a Traditionally, there aresix seasons (Rutus)inIndia, man, by the name “Shasthyabda Poorthi” (meaning each spanningover a period of abouttwo months. The ‘Completionof60years’). sixseasonsinIndiaarelistedinTable5.Theword‘rutu’is Naadi For predicting the monsoon and its subsequent derivedfromtheVedicSanskritword‘Rta’whichmeans effects on weather, almost all panchangams consider ‘order’or‘courseofthings’.Hence,thisdesignatesafixed three different Naadi Siddhantams (Capsular theories). or an appointed time, particularly the proper time for sacrificialrituals(Yagnyam). These are known as ‘Naadi Chakras’. The word Thepanchangamusedforthepresentstudy ‘Chakram’inSanskritsignifiesacycle.Theyare: In Andhra Pradesh also, we use Panchangams of 1. Dwi(Two)NaadiChakras dominant lunar dependence with a ‘luni-solar’ nature. 2. Tri(Three)NaadiChakras ‘Ama-anta’ monthsystem ( Ama- Amavasya (New Moon 3. Sapta(Seven)NaadiChakras Of these three, Sapta Naadi chakras are the most Day); Anta- ‘end’) is followed in these Panchangams. significantand aresaid to havea pronounced influence Eachmonthendswith Amavasya.Anotheraspectofthe on weather and especially rainfall. Table 4 lists all the lunar calendar is that a lunar year contains about 336 seven Naadis and their respective effects on weather daysasittakesnearly27-28daysfortheMoontotrace conditions. From the Panchangam, depending on the itsorbitaroundtheearth(28daysperonelunarmonthx 12 months = 336 days per one lunar year). This is 30 dominant Naadi Sanchaaram (Movement) of the year nakshatrams (stars) and grahas (Planets), during the days i.e., exactly one monthshorterthanthesolar th respective month, one can estimate the likely weather which has 365.25 days. So, just as every 4 year in a solarcalendarmustaddanextraday(leapyear)tomake conditionsduringthatparticularmonth. (Generally, ‘Naadi’ in Physiology means a ‘nerve upforthediscrepancyintheearth’sorbitaroundtheSun, center’ or ‘neural junction’. Even our Pulse is also Similarly, for every 30months orso, the lunarcalendar consideredtobeanaadi.AccordingtoSpiritualScience mustaddanextramonthtocompensateforthisdeficit. andMetaphysics,thereareabout72,000suchnaadisin This leap month is known as Adhika Maasam (The our humanbody.They are said tobe the sustainers of Additional Month) in Panchangam terminology. It has Life Energy (Prana Sakti) in various forms. Most ofthe beenaconventiontoinsertthis AdhikaMaasamafterthe ancientformsofmartialartsin‘TheOrient’andelsewhere monthsof Aashadham, Sraavanam, Bhaadrapadamand employcertaintechniquesthattacticallytargetthenerve Aaswayujam, as the case may be. For instance, ifthe centers (naadis) of the opponent’s body. In Astrology, month is to be added after Aaswayuja month in a thereisasystemcalled‘naadijyotishyam’,wherein,even particularyear,then,theoriginal Aaswayujamonthwillbe given the nomenclature ‘Nija Aaswayujam’ and the theminutestdetailsofthepastandfutureofaperson’s lifearerevealedwithgreatdegreeofaccuracy,whichcan additional month, Adhika Aaswayujam. Thus, every second or third lunar year contains 13 months which beseeninVaideeswaranKoyilinTamilnadu). In India, several states use a solar-year calendar contributes considerably to the minimization of whileothersusethelunar-yearcalendar.Lunarcalendar dissimilaritiesbetweenthesolarandthelunaryears, Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
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Table6.King,ministerandlordofcloudsduringtheyearsindeliberation YearNamein Christian Meghadhipathi King Minister Panchangam Era (LordofClouds) 1 Angirasa 1992-1993 Saturn Moon Sun 2 Srimukha 1993-1994 Mercury Mars Mars 3 Bhava 1994-1995 Moon Jupiter Mercury 4 Yuva 1995-1996 Saturn Venus Jupiter 5 1996-1997 Mercur Saturn Venus Dhatru 6 Iswara 1997-1998 Mars Sun Sun 7 Bahudhanya 1998-1999 Saturn Mars Moon 8 Pramathi 1999-2000 Jupiter Mercur Mars 9 Vikrama 2000-2001 Mercur Jupiter Mercur 10 Vrisha 2001-2002 Moon Venus Venus 11 Chitrabhanu 2002-2003 Saturn Sun Saturn 12 Swa(Su)bhanu 2003-2004 Mercur Moon Sun
thus, transforming the calendar into the one of a ‘LuniSolar’ nature. The panchangam used for the present study was prepared by the famous Pidaparthi house, popularlyknownas“PidaparthiPanchangam”.Erstwhile, this was released by the well-known daily of Andhra Pradesh ‘ Andhra Patrika’ that came to be known as “ AndhraPatrikaPanchangam”.Thiswaspreparedasper the ‘Indian Ephemeris and Nautical Almanac’, the guidelines for which were laid down by the ‘Calendar Reform Committee’ constituted by Government of India. Moreover, this very Pidaparthi Panchangam has been recognized and accepted by Government of India as a
Phalguna Krishna Paksha (Bahula) Amavasya,whichnormallyoccursduringthe monthofMarch. For every year, there will be a King, Minister, Senadhipathi (Commander-in-chief of forces/army), Sasyadhipathi (Lord of Agriculture, Crops and Greenery), Dhanyadhipathi (Lord of food grains), Arghadhipathi (Lord of Water), Meghadhipathi(LordofCloudsandRainfall), et cetera. Each ofthe above rulers for that particular year will be determined from the seven ruling planets Sun, Moon, Mars, Saturn, Jupiter, Venus and Mercury. King, Minister andMeghadhipathi ofalltheyears ofperiodofstudyaretabulatedinTable6. Cloudcategoriesinpanchangam Panchangam also predicts the details of the predominant cloudtypes likely to occur during the year. During the study period (1992-2004), Pushkaram, Samvartakam, Avartakam, Tamo, Vaayu, Varuna, Neelam, Kaalam and Dronam clouds were predicted to beprevalent.Aspertheancientclassification,thecloud typesandtheprobabletrendofrainfalltheyareexpected to cause are given in Table 7. It is quite fascinating to note that the current classification of clouds into four categories, interpreted based on their altitude in atmosphere, namely Cirro, Alto, Strato and Cumuli,
Table7.Basiccloudtypesandrainfalltrendsbasedonancientknowledge, Note:DronaminSanskritmeans‘apot’.InHindumythology,Dronacharya(thementorofKauravasandPandavasinthe Mahabharata)andSageAgasthyaarecalledKhumbha-SambhavasorDronaSambhavasastheyaresaidtobebornfrom pots(cloning-testtubebabies)).Theveryname‘Dronacharya’itselftellsthestory.Dronamcloudsresembletheshapeofapot whichcoincideswiththedescriptionofthemodernCumulonimbuscloudswiththeimposinganvilattheirtopandtheyaresaidto causecopiousrainssimilartothebountifulflowofwaterpoureddownfromapot Cloud Type 1 2 3 4
Resultant Rainfall Trend
Avartakam(MaybeAltoformCloudslike Altostratusand Altocumulus) Samvartakam(MaybeStratoformcloudslike Stratus,Stratocumulusand Nimbostratus) Pushkaram(MaybeCirroformcloudslike Cirrus,Cirrostratusand CirrocumulusorevenFairWeatherCumulus) Dronam(MaybeCumuliformCloudslike CumulusandCumulonimbus)
ScatteredRainfallincertainplaces Moderatetogoodanduniformshowersacross variouslocations LowamountsofPrecipitation AbundantRainfallisrecordedallovertheregion
standardreferencealmanac. perfectly suits the four major ancient cloud types Panchangamsforayearareusuallypreparedbefore envisioned in the Panchangam, namely, Pushkaram, the commencement of the intended year, during the Avartakam,SamvartakamandDronam. previousyearitself.Hence,themainaimofthisstudyis Table8.Rulingplanets(Kings)andtheirinfluenceonthe to compare and correlatethe meteorological predictions annualrainfallofthatparticularyear Rulingplanet( King) Nature of rainfall of the traditional Panchangam with the actual recorded 1 Ravi/Surya (Sun) Moderate valuesovertheTirupatiregion,usingthedataprovidedby 2 Kuja/Angaraka(Mars) Scant theIndiaMeteorologicalDepartment(IMD). 3 Budha (Mercury) Good (Windy Weather) This PanchangamismodeledontheTelugusystem Guru/Brihaspati of New Year which starts from the tithi Chaitra Shukla 4 Satisfactory (Jupiter) Padyami,whichusuallyfallsinthemonthofAprilandis Shukra/Bhargava knownbythenameUgadi.Thisisbelievedtobethetime 5 Heavy (Venus) whenLordBrahma,theCreatoramongTheHinduTrinity, VeryScanty(WithStrong 6 Shani/Manda(Saturn) startedtheconceptionofthisUniverse.Thisisaprincipal Winds) festivityin Andhra Pradesh. Theyearendswiththetithi 7 Chandra/Soma(Moon) VeryHeavy Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
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Ourancestorshavealsomadeanattempttoforetell thenatureofrainfallbasedontherulingplanet(King)of thatparticularyearwhichistabulatedinTable8. Year 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 19992000
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Dronam and found this conversion factor to be 6.4 cm (Balkundi,1999). Hence,1 Aadhakam=1.6cm
Table9.Panchangampredictionsofsomeweatherphenomenaduringthestudyperiod. PartsofRainfall Directionof Cloud Type Type of Rainfall CloudOrigin In Sea On Hills Pushkaram Less Rain North-East 9 5 LessRainwithexcessof Samvartakam North 7 10 wind Avartakam Less Rain North 7 10 Tamo Scattered Rainfall West 9 5 LackofRainduetoWindy Vaayu North-West 7 10 Weather Varunam Heavy Rainfall South-West 10 7 Neelam Heavy Rains South-East 9 5 Kaalam
2000-01
Dronam
2001-02
Pushkaram
2002-03
Samvartakam
2003-04
Avartakam
Low Rainfall IncessantandConsistent Rainfall Less Rain WeatherremainsWindyLessRain Less Rain
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On Land 7 4 4 7 4 4 7
South
8
9
4
East
7
10
4
North-East
7
10
4
North
9
5
7
North
7
10
4
Note:MeaningsofCloudNomenclaturesinSanskrit: a) Pushkaram:1.Abluelotus2.Theedgeofanelephant’strunk3.Sky4.Water5.Thesonof Varuna(TheRain-God) b) Samvartakam:1.ThenameoftheploughofLord Balarama(LordKrishna’selderbrotherintheHinduMythology,whoalwaysholds ploughinhishands,whichishisprincipleweapon)2.Amythologicalmare c) Avartakam:1.thatwhichrecursitselfagainandagain2.Acyclonicorwhirlpool-likeformation3.Thatwhichisbent,curvedand retracted d) Dronam:apot e) Tamo:1.Darkness2.Laziness f) Vaayu:(thatwhichgeneratesandpropels)Wind g) Varunam:(oforrelatedto) Varuna,TheRain-God h) Neelam:1.thecolorblack2.Ahill3.Thenameofa“Nidhi”(treasure) i) Kaalam:1.Thickblackincolour2.Time3.Lord Yama(TheDeath-God)Generally,‘kaala’cloudsoriginateinthesoutherndirectionfor whichLordYamaisbelievedtobetheruler
As per the Panchangam, when Sun is the King, it resultsinpoorcropyield.UndertheruleofMars,thereis extensive damage to crops. When Mercury happens to reignovertheyear,therewillbeplentyofharvest.Good harvest can be expected during the period of Jupiter’s kingship.Thereiseverychanceofvarietyoffoodgrains beingharvestedduringtheruleofVenus.Saturn’stenure on the throne accounts for a poor yield. Moon is the benefactorofcropswithcopiousrainsthatconsequently resultsinaverygoodharvest.Thissystemofdetermining thenatureofrainfallwasbelievedtobefirstpopularized bySageParasarainhisfamoustreatise‘KrishiParasara’. Measurementofrainfall Themeasurementofquantityofrainfallinthepresent Panchangam is given in terms of an ancient traditional unit Aadhakam.Itwasfoundthatone Aadhakamequals in weight to 7 Lbs. or 11 OZ ( Avoir dupois) (Tripathi, 1969). 1 Aadhakam equals to7 Lbs. or 11 OZ (Avoir dupois). Balkundi, a meteorologist, had found that one Aadhakam equals to 1.6 cm in modern measurements 2 (when a standard rain gauge of area 200 cm is used) and four such Aadhakams equal in quantity to one Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
Therefore,1Dronam=4 Aadhakams=1.6x4=6.4cm InthePanchangam,thedimensionsofan Aadhakam of rainfall have been provided and hold good over a standard area of upto 100 yojanams inheight and 60 yojanamsinwidth.OneYojanamequalsto8Mileor13 Km.approximately(RichardThompson,1997). InthePresent Panchangam,therangeofrainfallhas been given in Deva Maanam calculation (The mensuration standards of Gods. In Sanskrit, the word ‘Deva’ means ‘Gods’’ and the term ‘Maanam’ refers to ‘Measurement’)inyojanamsasspecifiedabove,whichis toohuge andunviableto dealwith practically.Hence, a localized term ‘Kuncham’ has been employed in the presentPanchangam.OneKunchamisconsideredtobe equal to 484 square yards. This is used extensively in coastalAndhraPradeshinlandtransactions. OneKuncham=484Squareyards TenKunchams=4840SquareYards=OneAcre However, in this Panchangam, Kuncham has been used as an equivalent measure to Aadhakam in volumetricmensuration.Here,it hasbeenenvisionedas a vesselwitha capacityto accommodate the volumeof rainwaterwhichmeasuresthesameas1.6cmor16mm
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ofrainwatercollectedinamodernraingaugeofarea200 2 cm . According to Sage Parasara, an Aadhakamis the capacity of a circular vessel whose diameter is 20 Angulams and depth is8 Angulams. Generally, one Angulam is considered to be almost equal to 1 inch. During someinstances,1 Angulamhasbeentreatedto th be3/4 ofaninchandevensometimes1-3/8inch.Hence, here, Kaartia
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parametersduringtheperiodof12yearsconsideredfor thestudy. Panchangam also enshrines certain astrological symptoms and conditions including planet-planet conjunctions, planet-star concurrences, planetary alignments, transit paths, etc., which are supposed to foist their impact on the trend of rainfall during that particular monthand also year,as a whole.An attempt has been made here to enlist these astrological
Table10.ListofKaartiPeriodswithRespectiveRainfallConditions Starts towards-
Rainfall
1
BharaniKaarti
The end of the last week of April
Chances of Good Rainfall
2
KruttikaKaarti
The end of the second week of May
Low
3
RohiniKaarti
TheendofthefourthweekofMay
Normal;Monsoonsetsinimmediatelyafter thecompletionofthisRohiniKaartiPeriod.
4
MrigasiraKaarti
The beginning of second week of June
Low to Good
5
ArdraKaarti
The beginning of fourth week of June
Good to Very Good
6
Punarvasu Kaarti
The end of first week of July
Almost No Rainfall
7
PushyamiKaarti
The end of the third week of July
Normal
8
AsleshaKaarti
The middle of the first week of August
Good
9
MakhaKaarti Purvashadha (Pubba/Purva) Kaarti Uttarashadha (Uttara)Kaarti
The middle of the third week of August
Low Rainfall with dense clouds
TheendofAugustandbeginningofSeptember
LowRainfallwithdenseclouds
The end of second week of September
Normal
10 11 12
HastaKaarti
The end of September
Normal
13
ChitraKaarti
The middle of second week of October
Good
14 15
SwatiKaarti VisakhaKaarti
The middleofthe fourthweekofOctober The end of the first week of November
GoodRainfallaccompanied byWind Low Rainfall accompanied by Wind
16
AnuradhaKaarti
The end of third week of November
17
JyeshthaKaarti
ThemiddleofthefirstweekofDecember
18
MulaKaarti
ThebeginningofthethirdweekofDecember
Good Rainfall accompanied by Wind LowtoNormalRainfallaccompaniedby Wind NormaltoHeavyRainfallaccompaniedby Wind
One Kuncham of rainfall = One Aadhakam of rainfall = conditions mentioned in the Panchangam from the 1.6cmofrainwater Chaitra month (March-April) of 1992 ( Angirasa Year)to FourKunchamsofrainfall=Four Aadhakamsofrainfall= the Phaalguna month (February-March) of 2004 OneDronamRain=6.4cmofrainwater (Swabhanu year). It is to be retained that all these DronaminSanskritmeans‘apot’.Here,itrepresents conjunctions, transits, alignments, etc. are to be apotora similarvesselwithacapacitytoaccommodate consideredfromtheviewofanobserverontheEarth(as thevolumeofrainwaterwhichmeasuresthesameas6.4 perceivedfromtheEarth)andtheterm‘Nakshatram’shall cm or 64 mm of rain water collected in a modern rain beoftenreferredtoas‘Star’fromhereonwards. 2 gaugeofarea200cm . Anaavrishti yogaha (astrological conditions favouring Dominant cloud type, resultant nature of rainfall, scantyrainfall) direction of cloud origin and proportions of rainfall 1. Kuja-GuruSamaSaptakam(SamainSansktitmeans occurringinsea,onmountainsandontheremainingland ‘equal’ and Saptakam means ‘septet’. Mars and th portion(thetotalrainfallwasconsideredtobeof21parts) Jupiteraresituatedin7 housefromeachotherona for the corresponding year have been forecast in the mutual1-7axis) Panchangamempirically.ThefollowingTable9presents 2. MovementofMarsinUttaraabhaadrastar the Panchangam predictions for the fore stated 3. SaturnincurvedorbitandMarsinlinearorbit Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
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4. MercurysituatedaheadoftheSunandRahu(North LunarNode),withRahuinthemiddle 5. Ravi-ShaniSama Saptakam (Sun and Saturn are th situatedin7 housefromeachotheronamutual1-7 axis) 6. Mercury situated ahead of all planets (Windy Weather) 7. JupitersituatedaheadofVenus 8. SaturnincurvedorbitandVenusinlinearorbit Fig.2.RaahuandKetushownasNorthernandSouthern Lunarnodesrespectively
9. MovementofMarsinRohinistar 10.VenussituatedaheadofRaahuandSunwithRaahu (Northern Lunar Node as shown in Fig. 2) in the middle 11.VenusappearsintheWest,situatedintheclusterof Makha nakshatramandits4counterparts.(Makha, PurvaPhalguni,UttaraPhalguni,HastaandChitra) 12.Sun and Jupiter are situated in Simha raasi (Leo Constellation) 13.JupitersituatedaheadofSun 14.SaturnsituatedaheadofVenus 15.SaturnissituatedaheadfollowedbyVenus,whichis followedbyJupiterandSunrespectively. 16.MovementofMarsin Ardrastar 17.Venus situated ahead and followed by Mercury, JupiterandSuntakeninorder. 18.Sun and Jupiter situated in Kanya raasi (Virgo Constellation) 19.Venusahead,followedbyMercuryandSun 20.MarsandVenusin SamaSaptakam(Refertopoints 1and5forthemeaningof ‘Sama Saptakam’.This Sanskrit astrological term will be used in original without explaining its meaning again, from here onwards) 21.Venusahead,followedbySaturnandSun 22.SunandMarsinSamaSaptakammode 23.MercuryaheadofSaturn 24.SunandJupiterinSamaSaptakammode 25.JupiterandVenusinSamaSaptakammode 26.MercuryaheadofVenus(Windy) 27.MovementofMarsin Asleshastar Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
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28.MarsinlinearorbitandSaturnincurvedorbit 29.MovementofMarsinMakhastar 30.MarsinLeoConstellation 31.Marsaheadofallplanets 32.Mercury appears in the East situated in Ardra star andits3counterparts(Thequartetcomprising Ardra, Punarvasu,Pushyaand Aslesha) 33.MovementofMarsinUttaraPhalgunistar 34.MarsandJupiterinKanyaraasi(Virgoconstellation) 35.JupiterissituatedaheadofSunandallotherplanets 36.MovementofMarsinSwatistar 37.MarsandJupiterinLeoconstellation 38.MarsandJupitersituatedinthesameconstellation 39.VenusappearsintheEastsituatedinSwatistarand its 2 counterparts (The triad consisting of Swati, VisakhaandAnuradha) 40.MovementofMarsinJyeshthastar 41.MarsandVenussituatedinthesameconstellation 42.ConjunctionofMercuryandVenusinMulastar 43.MovementofMarsinUttarashadhastar 44.ConjunctionofMercuryandVenusinShatabhishak star 45.Saturn ahead, followed by Mercury and Mars respectively 46.Mercury-Jupiter-Saturntrioincurvedorbits 47.MovementofMarsinRohinistar 48.ConjunctionofJupiterandVenus 49.Mercury-Venus-Saturntrioincurvedorbits 50.MovementofMarsin Asleshastar 51.Mercury ahead, followed by Venus and Sun respectively 52.MarsincurvedorbitandSaturninlinearorbit 53.MovementofVenusinMakhastar 54.SaturnaheadofMars 55.MarsaheadofSaturn 56.ConjunctionofMercuryandVenusinRohinistarin theEast 57.Conjunction of Sun, Mercury and Venus in Sun’s orbitalfield(Excessivewind) 58.GoodstrongrelationbetweenMarsandJupiter 59.ConjunctionofSaturnandMars 60.ConjunctionofMercuryandMars 61.ConjunctionofMarsandVenus 62.VenusaheadofMars 63.MarsaheadofVenus 64.MercuryandVenusinproximitywithMercuryahead ofVenus(Windyweather) 65.MovementofMars 66.JupitersituatedaheadofVenus 67.TheriseofVenus 68.MovementofMarsinUttaraabhaadrastar 69.ConjunctionofMercuryandSaturn 70.MercuryaheadofSaturn 71.MercuryaheadofMars 72.SaturnincurvedorbitandVenusinlinearorbit 73.ConjunctionofMercuryandVenusinJyeshthastar 74.MercuryrisesintheEast
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75.Venusaheadofalltheotherplanets 76.MarsincurvedorbitandVenusinlinearorbit 77.RiseofSaturn 78.JupiteraheadofMars 79.MovementofMarsinRevathistar 80.MovementofMarsinUttaraPhalgunistar 81.Sun-Jupiter-SaturninSamaSaptakammode(These th three are located in 7 house from each other mutually) 82.MarsaheadofVenus 83.SaturnaheadofMarsandVenus 84.RelationbetweenMars,JupiterandVenus 85.Relation ofSun,Mars and Jupiter in Mithuna raasi (GeminiConstellation) 86.RelationofSun,MarsandJupiterin Karkatakaraasi (Cancerconstellation) 87.ConjunctionofSunandSaturn 88.Venus sets in Aslesha star and its 5 counterparts (i.e., Aslesha, Makha, Purva Phalguni, Uttara Phalguni,HastaandChitra) 89.Solar entry in Ardra star between sunrise and 12 noon is especially bad and points towards coming famine. Suvrishti yogaha (astrological conditions favouring copiousrainfall) 1. AllplanetstracetheirorbitsatthebackoftheSun 2. Mercury and Venusin proximityahead ofSun with VenusaheadofMercury(Rainy) 3. MercuryincurvedorbitandVenusinlinearorbit 4. ConjunctionofMercuryandVenus 5. MovementofMars 6. Venussets 7. MarsinPatangaMaargam(TheSun’spath;because inSanskrit,‘Patanga’standsfor‘Sun’and‘Maargam’ means‘Path’) 8. RiseofVenus 9. Mercury rises and appears in the East, situated in Pushyamistar 10.Jupitersets 11.ConjunctionofMercuryandJupiter 12.VenusappearsintheWestsituatedinSwatistarand its 2 counterparts (The triad consisting of Swati, VisakhaandAnuradha) 13.RiseofJupiter 14.Saturnsets 15.VenusincurvedorbitandMercuryinlinearorbit 16.Sun ahead, followed by Venus and Mercury respectively 17.MovementofMarsinChitrastar 18.Venus appears in the East, situatedin Makha star and its 4 counterparts (Makha, Purva Phalguni, UttaraPhalguni,HastaandChitra) 19.MovementofVenus 20.ConjunctionofMercuryandJupiter 21.MovementofSaturn 22.MovementofMarsinVisakhastar 23.ConjunctionofJupiterandVenus Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
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24.Conjunction ofMercury and Venusin Swati star in the East with Mercury ahead of Venus (This particular conjuncture is known as ‘Jalaagama’, where Jalam means ‘water’ (rain)and aagama means‘arrival’inSanskritandthispresageswellfor abountifulrainfall) 25.Ketu(SouthernlunarnodeasshowninFig.2)inthe middleofalltheplanets 26.Mercury appears in Ardra star and ‘Bha’Chatushtaya Nakshatrams (4 stars beginning with the star ‘Bha’ranii.e.,Bharani, Krittika, Rohini and Mrigasira) 27.MovementofMarsinMrigasirastar 28.VenusaheadofJupiter 29.Conjunctionofthreeorfourplanetsintheorbitalfield ofVenus 30.MercuryaheadofVenus(Thoughwindy,sometimes windyweatheralsofavoursrainfallasgoodrainfallis sometimesaccompaniedbywind) 31.Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in the East, situatedinPunarvasustar 32. AllplanetstracetheirorbitalpathsaheadoftheSun 33.Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in the west, situatedinHastastar 34.Relation between Venus and Mars situated in Leo constellation 35.ConjunctionofMercuryandVenusin Aswinistar 36.RiseofVenusinBharanistar 37.RelationofMarsandVenusinJyeshthastar 38.VenussetsintheWest 39.Jupiter sets in the West situated in Shatabhishak star 40.MarssetsintheWestsituatedinUttarashadhastar 41.JupiterrisesintheEastinShatabhishakstar 42.SaturnsetsintheWestinRevathistar 43.MercurysetsinRevathistar 44.ConjunctionofMarsandSaturn 45.MovementofMarsinBharanistar 46.MercuryrisesinRevathistar 47.Mars in Soumya maargam (The path of Mercury; because in Sanskrit, ‘Maargam’ means ‘Path’ and theword‘Soumya’denotes‘Mercury’(Budha)asin Hindu mythology, he is believed to be the son of Moon,whoisalsoknownbythename‘Soma’) 48.SaturnrisesintheEast 49.MercurysetsintheEast 50.MercurysetsintheWestaftertheSun 51.VenusinSoumyamaargam 52.Venus ahead, followed by Saturn and Mars respectively 53.Sun ahead, followed by Venus and Mercury respectively 54.MercuryrisesintheEast 55.MercuryrisesintheWest 56.MovementofMarsinPurvaPhalgunistar
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57.Venus appears in the West, situated in Swati star and its 2 counterparts (Swati, Visakha and Anuradha) 58.VenusaheadofSun 59.Sunaheadofalltheplanets 60.RelationofMercuryandVenusinAsleshastar 61.MovementofMarsinPurvashadha 62.MovementofMarsinPurvaabhaadra 63.ConjunctionofMercuryandVenusin Shatabhishak star 64.MercuryincurvedorbitandMarsinlinearorbit 65.VenusincurvedorbitandMercuryinlinearorbit 66.Conjunction of Mercury and Venus in Uttaraabhaadrastar 67.ConjunctionofMercuryandVenusinSravanastar 68.Transit of Venus through stars situated in the astrologicalcelestialpathof‘Soumyamaargam’ 69.Venus situated in Swati star which is on the astrologicalcelestialpathof‘Soumyamaargam’ 70.MercuryrisesinAswinistar 71.MercurysetsinBharanistar 72.MercuryrisesinBharanistar 73.ConjunctionofMercuryandVenusinRohinistar 74.MercurysetsinMrigasirastar 75.MercurysetsinUttaraPhalgunistar 76.MercuryrisesinPurvaPhalgunistar 77.Mercuryrisesin Anuradhastar 78.MercurysetsinPurvashadhastar 79.MercuryrisesinMulastar 80.MercurysetsinSravanastar 81.MercuryrisesinRevathistar 82.IftheentryofSunin Ardrastarhappensaftersunset and before the next Sun rise, it isgood for rainfall andweather. 83.Sunentering Aardrastarduringlateeveningornight indicateswidespreadandplentiful rainfallleadingto goodcropsandeasyavailabilityoffoodgrains. (The word Aardra in Sanskrit means ‘wet or dampened one’ . Hence this name aptly suits the fore stated phenomenon). rd Veryrecently,on3 ofJanuary,2012,theconjunctionof Jupiter and Moon took place (observed from the Earth) aftersunset.Thiswasclearlyvisibletothenakedeyein theEastskyontheday.Thiswasexpectedtobringabout changesinTemperature. Note:GroupingofStars– Group 1: ‘Bha’ Chatushtaya Nakshatrams - 4 stars beginning with the star ‘Bha’ranii.e.,Bharani, Krittika, RohiniandMrigasira. Group 2: Ardraadi Chatushtaya Nakshatrams- Ardra, Punarvasu,PushyaandAslesha Group 3: Maghaadi Panchaka Nakshatrams- Makha, PurvaPhalguni,UttaraPhalguni,HastaandChitra Group4:SwateetrayaNakshatrams-Swati,Visakha and Anuradha Group5:JyeshthaadiPanchakaNakshatrams-Jyeshtha, Mula,Purvashadha,UttarashadhaandSravana Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
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Group6: Dhanishthaadi Shatka NakshatramsDhanishtha, Shatabhishak, Purvabhaadrapada, Uttarabhaadrapada,RevathiandAswini When these astrologically predicted portents are amalgamated with contemporary technological prowess anddexterity,then,thiswoulddefinitelyprovideareliable pedestal with immense impetus by unveiling a revolutionary and ground-breaking innovation in the arenaofrainfallprediction. KaartiorKartari Themoonstaysconjoined with one nakshatram for about one day and thus his stay in all the 27 nakshatrams, one per each day, constitutes the entire lunarmonth.Thisparticularstarinwhichthemoonstays foronedayiscalled‘Nitya(Daily)Nakshatram’(meaning ‘Thedailystar’,denotingthestarwithwhichthemoonis conjoined on that particular day of the lunar month). Likewise, the Sun also stays in one nakshatram for a periodofabout13-14days.The nakshatram with which the Sun is conjoined during a month is called a‘Maha (Mega) Nakshatram’ (meaning‘Mega Star’). This period of Solar-Star conjunction during a given lunar month is knownasa‘Kaarti’inTeluguPanchangam(includingthe Panchangamconsideredforthepresentstudy). Hence,amonthmayconsistof1or2 kaartiperiods whichareusuallynamedaftertheNakshatram(Star)the Sunisconjoinedwith,atthatparticulartime.TheseKaarti periodsaresaidtobeinfluentialonweatherphenomena, particularlyrainfall.Dependinguponthetimeoftheyear andthestarofsolarconjunction,differentKaartiperiods havedifferentresultsforrainfallinagivenyearandthe sameKaartiperiodmaywitnessdifferenttypesofrainfall indifferentyearsdependinguponthevariousastrological factorsprevalentatthattime.Thereareabout18 Kaarti periodsinagivenyear.TheyareshowninTable10. These are however, much generalized predictions and the actual prediction for each Kaarti period in the Panchangamdiffersforeachyear. General Monthly Summary of Rainfall and Climate As EnvisagedInthePanchangam (a) Chaitram: Chances of some rainfall with normal to moderateflashrainsinsomeplaces.Weatherwillbe windy occasionally. Overall, it will be cool and pleasantduringthisseason. (b) Vaisaakham: Symptoms conducive for good rainfall throughoutthemonth.Duringthebrightfortnight,there may be 1-2 normal to moderate flash rains accompanied bywind. Heatwave intensifiestowards theendofthismontharound Amavasyatime. (c) Jyeshtham:MoreRainsareexpectedduringthedark fortnight than during the bright fortnight. First monsoonal rains begin in this month. The Godavari andotherriversinthestateflowwithabundantwaters. (d) Aashaadham:Rainfallisexpectedtobescantyduring thebrightfortnightwithnormalrainfallinsomeplaces. Skyremainscloudyduringthedarkfortnightwith1-2 instancesofgoodrainfall.
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Year 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 19992000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03
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Table11.PanchangamPredictionscomparedwiththeModernData Prediction RecordedMax.Rain Degreeof YearlyMean(mm) (mm) onagivenday(mm) Agreement(%) 16 53 30.2 12.23 48 108.4 44.3 14.73 48 70.6 68 12.72 16 150.8 10.6 15 48 185.6 26 18.11 32 103.1 31 13.57 16 103.8 15.4 13.64
ISSN: 0974- 6846 Degreeof Agreement(%) 76.4 30.7 26.5 93.8 37.7 42.4 85.3
4
64
43.6
68.1
9.32
14.6
3 3 1
48 48 16
65.9 157.4 101.8
72.8 30.5 15.7
8.14 12.14 11.85
17 25.3 74.1
(e) Sraavanam: Mostly, this month experiences symptoms of rainfall scarcity. There may be some rains during the bright fortnight. Rains are awaited duringthedarkfortnight. (f) Bhaadrapadam: Sky remains cloudy with normal to moderaterainfallduringthismonth. (g) Aaswayujam: No considerable rainfall during this month till Purnima (Full Moon) time. At around Purnima, heavy rains occur due to the formation of depressioninthesea.During Amavasya(NewMoon) time,therewillberainsaccompaniedbywindinsome regions,disturbingagriculture. (h) Kaarthikam: Dominantsymptoms of goodrainfall are perceived during this month. Rainfall ranging from meager dew precipitation to normal showers can be expected during the bright fortnight. Formation of depression (low pressure area) in the sea during Purnima and Amavasya periods, resulting in heavy rains. (i) Maargaseersham: Scarce rainfall during the month. Skyremainscloudyandmoistblowduringthismonth. There are chances of 2-3 episodes of heavyrainfall andtheserainsareunfavourableforagriculture. (j) Pousham: Probability of Scanty rainfall in this particular month. Moderate rainfall is likely to occur during the bright fortnight period. The dark fortnight periodexperienceswindy,moistandsnowyweather. (k) Maagham: No considerable rainfall in this month. Thereareremotechancesof2-3instancesofrainfall, whichisusuallyuncharacteristicofthisseason. (l) Phaalgunam: Occasional rains in the manyam (a forest region in Northern Andhra Pradesh) region resultinginfillingupofponds,lakesandotherwater bodies situated there. Other than this, there will be clear, dry and pleasant spring-time weather conditions prevalent elsewhere, conducive for and leadingtotheadventofsummerlater. Resultsanddiscussions Comparisonwithrecordeddata TocorrelatethePanchangampredictiontotheactual recorded values, the surface meteorological data provided by the National Data Centre, India MeteorologicalDepartment(IMD),Punewasused. Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
Comparisonwithmaximumrainfallandannualrainfall We may recall here that the quantity of rainfall in Panchangam is given in terms of Aadhakam units and alsothatthemodernvalueof Aadhakamwasestablished Fig.3.Winddirectionsona16-pointcompass,each 0 separatedbyanangleof22.5
Fig.4.ComparisonofPanchangamrainfallpredictionwith recordedmaximumrainfallonagivendayoftheyear
tobe1.6cmor16mm(approx.).Therainfallpredictionin this Panchangam may be treated as the maximum amount of rainfall on any single given day of that particularyear in deliberation,or eventhe moregeneric average rainfall during the year. All these have been incorporatedinTable11andcomparisonofPanchangam predictionwithrecordedmaximumrainonagivendayof
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theyearandyearlymeanaregraphicallyrepresentedin Fig.3andFig.4respectively. Note: Adequate meteorological daily surface data for Tirupati region is not available for the year 2003-2004 fromthearchivesofIMD
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beappliedtoanyoralloftheregionsofAndhraPradesh orevenbyconsideringAndhraPradeshstateasawhole. Evaluationemployingbi-monsoonalprecipitation Anattempthasbeenmade toexaminetheextentof agreement of the almanac predictions withthe average
Table12.PanchangampredictionscomparedwithMonsoonalAverages Degreeof Panchangam AverageSouthWest Agreement AverageNorthEast RainfallPrediction Monsoonal (%) MonsoonalRainfall(mm) (mm) Rainfall(mm) 16 48 48 16 48 32 16 64 48 48 16
8.6 9.8 11.0 12.5 15.1 9.3 9.2 6.2 6.4 7.8 8.7
53.8 20.4 23.0 78.1 31.5 29.0 57.5 9.7 13.3 16.3 54.4
Fig.5.ComparisonofPanchangamrainfallprediction withrecordedyearlymeanrainfall
Fig.6.ComparisonofPanchangamrainfallpredictionwith recordedaveragesouth-westrainfall,averagenorth-east rainfallandaverageoftotalmonsoonrainfalldata.
Further,ithastobeborneinmindthatthisPanchangam rainfallpredictionisvalidovertheentireAndhraPradesh regionandisnotconfinedtooneparticularplace.Itcan Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
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15.1 19.8 15.3 11.8 23.0 16.8 21.7 14.4 12.5 18.6 14.1
DegreeofAgreement(%) 94.4 41.3 32.0 73.8 47.9 52.5 73.7 22.5 26.0 38.8 88.1
rainfall measured during the traditional Varsha Rutu (Rainy Season), which temporally corresponds to the modern South West monsoon period (June-September) and also with North East monsoon period (OctoberDecember).ThisisshowcasedinTable12.Thedatahas been compared withthe Panchangampredictionasitis representedgraphicallyinFig.5. Tirupatireceivesheavyrainfalland often,majorityof itsrainfallduringNorthEastmonsoontimeaccompanied by the formation of depressions in Bay of Bengal that resultin incessant rains for days together. The farming seasonduringtheSouthWestmonsoonsisknownbythe name‘Khareef ’andduringNorthEastmonsoons;thisis called ‘Rabi’ in Southern India. Obviously, the highest rainfall during a year occurs during either of the two monsoons.But,therearesomeinstanceswhenisolated high rainfall episodes are witnessed during Summer (MostlyinMayandseldominApril)duetotheconvective torrential rains (involving Cumulonimbus clouds). In addition,therearesomescatteredrainsobservedduring the Maagha month (February), called “Maaghapaali” rains, which have been effectively predicted in the Panchangam. However, these inconsistent and discrete cases specified above, have been included in general overallrainfallanalysisinTable11aboveandhence,not been given much emphasis in further analysis and calculations. Assessment of rainfall based on planetary reign in Panchangam The Panchangam alsopredictsthe nature ofrainfall in a year based on its quantity depending upon the planetaryreignofthatparticularyear.Comparisonofthis astrological forecast with the total recordedrainfallfor a given year is shown in Table 13. The years ruled by Saturn experienced comparatively scanty rainfall (19921993,1995-1996,1998-1999and2002-2003).Thereign
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Table13.Comparisonofthepredictedeffectofplanetaryrulershiponannualrainfall,withrecordeddata King PredictedNatureofRainfall Recorded TotalAnnualRainfall (mm) Saturn Scanty (with strong winds) 758.6 Mercury Very Good (Windy) 1413.8 Moon Heav 1170.1 Saturn Scanty (strong winds) 899.0 Mercury Very Good (Windy) 1901.4 Mars Destructive with damage to crops 1275.8 Saturn Scanty (strong winds ) 1132.9 Jupiter Low to Satisfactor 727.2 Mercury Good (Windy) 760.9 Moon Heavy 1226.4 Saturn Scanty (strong winds) 912.2
of Mercury yielded very good rainfall during 19931994 and 1996-1997. The Moon’s royal sway over the years1994-1995and2001-2002resultedinheavyrainfall duringthesetwoyears.Jupiter’stenureduring1999-2000 witnessed considerably low rainfall. All the above observations were in significant correlation to the predictions made in the Panchangam, positioning the degreeofcorrelationatanastounding81.8%. But,thetermofMarsin1997-1998wasexpectedto bring low rainfall with extensive damage to agriculture. But, the actual rainfall (1275.8 mm) was prominently above the normal range during this year. Likewise, the Kingship of Mercury during 2000-2001 recorded a substantially low rainfall (760.9 mm.), that is quite Year
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In addition to this, the mean rainfall during the two monsoons was also associated with the Almanac predictions.The degreeof associationwithmeanSouthWest monsoonal rainfall was established as between 9.7% and 78.1% (Table 12). The average association was determined to be 35.2%. In case of North East monsoon,thisassociationspannedfrom22.5%to94.4% (Table12)andwhosemeanwascomputedtobe53.72%. Whenitcomestothecaseofconsideringthenormalof the total monsoonal precipitation, the extent of correspondencetothetraditional Panchangamestimates varyfrom16.1%to88.1%andtheaverageoftheextent ofthisrelationstoodat45.8%(Table14).
Table14.TotalmonsoonalaveragecomparedwithPanchangamprediction TotalMonsoonRainfall Averageoftotal Predicted (mm) MonsoonRainfall(mm) RainfallinPanchangam(mm) 661.0 11.4 16 1283.7 14.6 48 1012 13.0 48 668.2 12.2 16 1749 18.6 48 1177.1 13.4 32 1125.5 14.1 16 637.2 10.3 64 710.9 9.0 48 1086.2 13.0 48 769.6 10.8 16
DegreeofAgreement (%) 71.3 30.4 27.1 76.3 38.8 42.0 88.1 16.1 18.8 27.1 67.5
contradictory to the respective prediction. The extent of Evaluationbased on predictedcloud typeand nature of disagreementwasonly18.2%. resultantrainfall Appraisalwithaggregatemonsoonalshowers As per the modern meteorology, Cirrus (High Further,theaverageofthetotalrainfalldocumented Altitude) clouds are not expected to give any rainfall or duringthetwomonsoons(SouthWest&NorthEast)has sometimes yield low rainfall based on the moisture also been correlated with the rainfall predicted by the content in theatmosphere andthe descent of thecirrus Panchangam(Table14). ice crystals onto middle and low altitude clouds, which From the above statistics, we can notice that the aptlysuits Pushkaraclouds.Duringtheperiodofstudy, degree of agreement of the maximum rainfall on any this cloud was predicted to be dominant during the givendayoftheyearrangedfrom10.6%to72.8%(Table Panchangamyear1992-1993andthetotalannualrainfall 11). The average extent of coincidence was 37.51%. inTirupatiduringthisyearwasalsolow(758.6mm)(see Similarly,theannualmeanrainfallwasalsocomparedto Table15).Also,thetotalrainfallduringthetwomonsoons the Panchangampredictionandtherangeofagreement in1992-93(661.0mm)wasthelowestduringtheperiod extendedfrom14.6%to93.8%,theaverageofwhichwas ofstudy(seeTable14).Thepredictionandactualrainfall calculatedtobe47.62%(Table11). for 1999-2000 also were in great agreement with each other(727.2mm) (Table15). Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
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Table15.Cloudtypepredictionscomparedwithreal-timecloudobservations DominantCloudtype TypeofRainfall TotalRainfall Year DominantCloudTypeObserved Predicted Predicted (mm) Cirrusintheformofhooks, 1992-93 LessRain 758.6 Pushkaram progressivelyinvadingtheSky Stratocumulus&Cumulus,other UniformRain-Very 1993-94 thanthatformedfromspreadingof 1413.8 Samvartakam windy Cumulus Altocumulusin2ormorelayers; 1994-95 Avartakam LessRain 1170.1 opaqueatplaces Stratocumulusnotformedby 1995-96 Tamo ScatteredRain 899.0 spreadingCumulus Windy&Less 1996-97 Vaayu Semi-transparent Altocumulus 1901.4 Rain Stratocumulusformedbyspreading 1997-98 Varunam HeavyRainfall 1275.8 Cumulus Altocumulus,principallysemi1998-99 Neelam HeavyRainfall 1132.9 transparent 1999-2000 Kaalam Low Rainfall Dense Cirrus;likeCumuliform tufts 727.2 Cumuliformcloudsformedbytheir 2000-01 Dronam Incessantrainfall 760.9 spreading Windy&Uniform Stratocumulusnotformedby 2001-02 Samvartakam 1226.4 Rainfall spreadingoutofCumulus Predominantlytranslucent 2002-03 Avartakam LessRain 912.2 Altocumulus Table16.ObserveddirectionofcloudorigincomparedwithPanchangamprediction ActualDirectionofCloud DominantWindDirection(s)during DirectionofCloudGeneration Year Observed(using8pointsof theYear(using16pointsof PredictedinPanchangam compass) compass) 1992-93 North – East No definite direction* SSW, SW, NE, NNE 1993-94 North North – East SSW,SW, NE, NNE 1994-95 North No definite direction SW, SSW, NE, NNE 1995-96 West South – West NE 1996-97 North – West No definite direction SW, NE 1997-98 South – West North – East NE, SW, SSW, 1998-99 South – East No definite direction SSW, NE 1999-2000 South No definite direction SW, ENE, NE, 2000-01 East No definite direction SW, SSW, NE, ENE, W 2001-02 North – East No definite direction SW, NE 2002-03 North South W, SW, SSW, NE, ENE *Thismeansthecloudisatthecenteroftheskywithoutorientationtowardsanydirectionortheparticularcloudisspreadover multiple directions or it is invading and pervading the entire sky. NE=North-East; SW=South-West; SSW=South-South-West; NNE=North–North-East;W=West;ENE=East–North-East.InSanskrit,theEastdirectioniscalledPurva,PrakorPrachi;Westis called Paschimam or Prateechi; North is known as Uttaram; South is known by the name Dakshinam; North-East is called Ishanyam; South-Westis termed Nairuti; North-Westis called Vaayavyamand South-East hasbeen giventhe nomenclature Aagneyam.Therulersoftheeightdirectionsare:a).East:LordIndra(KingoftheGods.Hence,EastisconsideredtobetheKing orthemost auspicious ofallthe directions astheSun alsorisesinthe East)b). West: LordVaruna (The Rain-God.Clouds originatingintheWestconsistentlyyieldcopiousrainfall)c).North:LordKubera(LordofWealth.AsperthescienceofVaastu- theartofpropitiousconstruction,allthetreasureslikemoneyvaluables,cashboxesetceteraaretobeplacedattheNorth)d). South: Lord Yama (Lord of Death. The South wind is generally thought to be non-beneficial and is of ‘howling’ nature. Moreover,southern clouds normally result in miserly rainfall). e).North-East:Lord Ishaana(aform ofLord Rudraor Lord Siva, afterwhomthisdirectionisnamed‘Ishaanya’).f).South-West:LordNiruti(aRaakshasaorademon,afterwhomthisdirectionis named‘Nairuti’)g).North-West:Lord Vaayu(TheWind-God,after whomthe directionis named‘Vaayavyam’). h). South-East: LordAgni(TheFire-God,afterwhomthisdirectionisnamed‘Aagneyam’).Alloftheabovementionedrulersoftheeightdirections areknownas'AshtaDikPaalakas'.InSanskrit,Ashtameans'Eight';Dikmeans'Direction'andPaalakameans'Ruler'.
Altocumulus clouds visible on a warm and humid summer morning portend rain or thunderstorm by late afternoon.Stratocumuluscloudsgenerallyappearasthe remainsofamuchlargercumuluscloud.NormalRainor Snow may fall from Stratocumulus. Cumulus clouds develop vertically into the atmosphere as opposed to Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
othercloudforms, into the form of Cumulus Congestus and occasionally into the most dreadful, impactful and power-packedvariant,Cumulonimbus,thetoweringcloud clustersoftenextendingintothe lowerstratosphere.The outcome would be a showery precipitation, usually a thunderstorm,accompaniedbygalewinds.
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Further,itcanbeeasilyconcludedthat thepredictionof regiontowhichthewindblows,i.e.,oppositetothewind direction (The direction from which the wind originates). cloudtypeandrainfallinthePanchangamaccordswell withtheactualcloudtypesobserved,basedonthenature 16-pointcompassformatisusedtomeasurewindspeed of rainfall expected from them. However, there are whichis showninFig.6.Basedonthismodernscientific discrepancies between the actual quantity of rainfall observation, we shall try to interpret the predictions of recordedandthepredictioninsomecases(Table15). Panchangampertainingtothedirectionofcloudorigin. Hence, among the 11 years considered, 7 years It can be observed that the modern observations witnessed the coincidence of the recorded rainfall with hardlycoincidewiththePanchangampredictions,with7 thePanchangampredictionstosomeextentortheother, out of 11 modern observations unable to assign any placingthescopeoftheirassociationatahealthyrateof particulardirection to the observeddominantcloud type about63.6%. (Table16).Duringtheyears1992-93,1996-97,1997-98, Directionsofcloudorigininalmanacweighedwithactual 2000-2001 and 2001-2002 the prediction for cloud phenomenon direction was in good terms with the observed wind Panchangam clearly specifies the direction oforigin directions(mutuallyoppositedirections).Theyears1993ofthecloudtypethatisdominantduringayear.These 94, 1994-95, 1999-2000 and 2002-2003 showed some predictions can be matched with the contemporary approximate resemblance (for instance, in 1994-95, meteorologicalobservations(Table16). when the predicted cloud direction was North, the WindDirectiontotheRescue:Here,itisquitenoteworthy observed prevalent wind direction was South-West and that even during the instances where the modern South–South-West,wheretheanticipatedwinddirection observationswereunabletoascertainaspecificdirection was from South). The years 1995-96 and 1998-1999 of clouds; Panchangam was able to predict it well in exhibited no correlation at all in this regard (Table 16). advance. Since we have no direct source in the above Hence,theoverallpercentageofperfectcorrelationwas datainTable16toverifythesepropositions,weneedto 45.5%.The rate ofproximateassociationwascalculated do so circuitously by considering the direction of tobe 36.4%and the extent of totalnon-correlation was prevalent wind during the year. Air always travels from onlya trivial 18.1%. Fromthese,it canbe substantively regionsofhighpressureto regionsoflow pressure.This asserted that the total magnitude of this degree of pressure gradient facilitates the flow (blowing) of air agreement (to some extent orthe other) was placed at which is called ‘Wind’. From the surface level to the 81.9% with a mere disagreement of 18.1%.This sound tropospheric altitudes,the windflow occurs horizontally. relationshipprovidesuswithanadequateproofofthefact For instance, the wind originating from the north would that our great ancestors were well aware of the travel towards the south and vice versa. (On the other mechanismsofwindcirculationandcloudformation. hand, the winds occurring at the higher reaches of Measured wind velocity linked to Panchangam atmosphere are vertical winds). The gradient is a predictions consequence of Sun’s heat resulting in temperature In addition, the Panchangam repeatedly and variations. Air at high temperature possesses high categoricallyassertsthatthereignofMercuryinducesa pressure owing to thermal agitation of air molecules. windy weather during a given year though it witnesses Therefore, air flow occurs till the equilibrium of good amount of rainfall. Saturn’s rule causes scanty temperature and pressure is achieved. Furthermore, rainfallwithstormywinds.TheKingshipofMarsprobably winds converge in a low pressure zone, moving in an endsupwithdestructionofcropsduetogalewinds,hail anti-clockwisedirection.Thisiscalleda storms and other pervasive elements. Table17.Windcategorybasedon ‘cycloniccirculation’. Going by the contemporary windvelocity On the other hand, in a high pressure meteorology, wind velocities can be Windvelocity Category zone, winds diverge out, moving in a range(kmph) categorized as shown in Table 17, clockwisedirection.Thisisknownasan 1 (http://www.windfinder.com/wind/windsp Calm th ‘Anti-cyclonic circulation’. Hence, air 1 – 5 eed.htm; accessed on 15 of January, Light Air begins to settle down in low pressure 6 – 11 2012). Light Breeze areas,wheretheairparcelsorpackets 12 – 19 The range of maximum wind Gentle Breeze come under the influence of boundary 20 – 28 velocityduringtheperiodofstudyvaried Moderate Breeze layer and other local endemic factors, 29 – 38 from28km/hto72km/h.So,fromthe Fresh Breeze wheretheybegintoriseinatmosphere 39 – 49 classification provided above, we can Strong Breeze thereby accumulating more and more easilyinfer thatthis range corresponds HighWind,Near 50–61 Gale watervapour.Consequently,theyreach to moderate breezes, fresh breezes, Gale Wind their saturation point and form clouds. 62 – 74 strong breezes, high winds nearer to 75 – 88 Severe Gale From all these, one can arrive at a gale speed and finally, gale winds. 89 – 102 Stormy Wind general conclusion that clouds are Exceptduring1993-1994(72km/h)and Violent Storm formed in areas of low pressure at a 103 –117 118 - 133
Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
Hurricane
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Table18.Panchangamwindspeedpredictionsmatchedwithon-sitemeasurements Panchangam MeasuredMaximum MeasuredAnnual Planetary No.ofDayswithWind Predictionwith WindVelocityonany AverageWindVelocity Reign Velocity>=28kmph respecttoWind givenday(kmph) (kmph) Saturn Strong Winds 38 15 14 Mercur Very Windy Weather 72 14.5 6 Usuallycalmwith Moon 38 14 2 heavyrainfall Saturn Strong Winds 28 13.1 2 Mercur Windy Weather 34 13.1 10 Mars Destructive to Crops 46 15.5 44 Saturn Strong Wind 34 14.2 10 LowtoSatisfactory Jupiter Rainfallwithlightor 34 14.7 18 nobreezes Mercur Windy Weather 36 14.1 17 HeavyRainfallwith Moon 34 13.9 16 composedweather Saturn Strong Wind 38 15.2 29
1995-1996 (28 km/h), all the other years had their maximumwindspeedsspanningfrom34km/hto46km/h (Table18).Thesewindscanbeveryconvincinglytagged asextending from fresh breezes to strong breezes and when these are prevalent on a given day, it can be declared thatthe weatheris ‘Windy’.By consideringthe annual average wind speed, it can be concluded that gentle breezes were dominant during the years under consideration (Table 18). Except during the four years 1993-94, 1995-96, 1999-2000 and 2001-2002, all the other seven years complied with the predictions of the Panchangam to a pronounced level. The height of concurrencewas establishedat around63.6%,whilethe degreeofdisagreementwasplacedatabout36.4%. From all these comparative observations, it can be vividly stated that an Apposite blend of ancient knowledge and modern technical prowess would undoubtedlyworkwondersforthefieldofScienceandin this context,would unquestionably augur marvels in the arena ofweather forecasting andmonsoonprediction,in particular. Conclusion Though mostof thePredictions in Panchangamare qualitativeandusuallygeneralizedoveragivenarea,say astate,anin-depthstudyandanalysisofthepropositions enshrinedinthealmanac,inconjunctionwiththemodern sophisticated meteorological science will result in the evolution of a more accurate, reliable and accountable weather forecasting in the near future. Our ancient Indians did not have the luxury of sophisticated and automatedweathermappingdevices.Yet,theywereable to develop astonishingly erudite and pertinent theories and principles often without even looking at the sky, whichsignificantlycoincidedwiththemodernfindingsof late. The calendar system and time scales in the Panchangam are immaculate. A year with an Adhikamaasam occurs around 7 times in 19 years. Sometimes,duetothevaryingspeedsofEarth’srotation aroundtheSun,itsohappensthatasolarmonthmaybe Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
shorterthanthelunarmonth.Thiscallsforadeductionof alunarmonthfromthecalendar.Thiseliminatedmonthis knownas‘KsheenamaasamorKshayamaasam’. Panchangam predictions maintaineda vigorous rate of positive association with the authentic observations. Thisextendedfrom10.6%to72.8%incaseofmaximum rainfallrecordedonanygivendayofaparticularyearand from14.6%to93.8%pertainingtothetotalmeanannual rainfall during the period of study. During the period of South-West monsoon, this relationship fluctuated between 9.7% and 78.1%. During North-East monsoon time,thisvacillatedfrom22.5%to94.4%.Theobserved total monsoonal mean rainfall corresponded to the Panchangam predictions to an extent stretching from 16.1% to 88.1%.The prediction of rainfall based on the planetarycrownofagivenyearcoincidedwiththeactual totalannualrainfalltoanextentof81.8%.Whenitcomes tothe issue of comparison of predicteddominant cloud type during a year and the resultant rainfall, with the recorded measurements, the scope of this association was found to be 63.6%. Further, the direction of cloud originasforeseeninthePanchangamwasdiscoveredto be likened to the real-time observations at a rate of 81.9%. When the predicted nature of wind velocitywas underdeliberation,theheightofconcordwiththeon-site observations during theperiod of study wasestablished tobe63.6%.Hence,tosummarizeatabird’seyeview, the degree of association between predictions and recorded data was of the order ranging from a meager 9.7% to a staggering 94.4% in case of individual observations. On the whole, the general trend of Panchangam predictions versus actual observations emergedouttobe56.75%(57%(approx.)).
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Besides, the numerical weather prediction (NWP) modelslikeT80,T170,MM5andEta, runattheNational Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)failedtopredictnearlyonethirdofthecases of high rainfall spells at most of the locations situated 0 northof20 NortheEasternpeninsulaorintheBayof Bengal.ItwasalsonotedthatnoparticularNWPmodel hasperformedsatisfactorilyinpredictinghighamountof rainfall in different parts of India at the same time (Khaladkaretal,2007).Ontheconsummate,duringthe study period, the mean success rate of Panchangam predictionssetagainstthe modernobservationswasput at 57 %( approx.). When viewed from this germane perspective, Panchangam can be conferred with the status of a full-fledged ‘Scientific Weather Prediction Model’.With rapidclimaticchangesand global warming, drasticvagariesoftheweatherphenomenahavebeena commonplace occurrence during the recent decades. Thisisthereasonwhymanyweatherpredictionmodels have recurrently failed to function as anticipated. This predicament applies to all the traditional scientific texts and treatises, including the Panchangam. With the climatictrendsbeingrenderedcapriciousdaybyday,the effectivenessandefficacyofallthetraditional,indigenous as well as the present-day scientific methods is to be onceagaininspectedandre-evaluated. Given this existing milieu, there is an impending necessitytoamalgamatethistraditionalknowledgegifted tousasanirreplaceableheritagebyourforefathers,with the latest cutting-edge decorous technological innovations, in order to accomplish an apropos, comprehensiveaswellasaseemlyandfittinglyfulfilling meteorologicalmonitoringand forecasting mechanism in thevisibleimminentfuture. Acknowledgement Our heartfelt thankfulness to National Data Centre, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Pune for the supplyoftherequesteddataessentialforcarryingoutthis study. We express our profound gratefulness and appreciation to Ms. Haripriya Chinthapally, USA for her invaluable support and cooperation in statistical data programmingandarticleformatting. References 1. BalkundiHV(1999)Commentaryon‘KrishiParasara’, translated by Sudhale N. Agri. History Bull., Publication No.2, Asian Agri History Foundation, Secunderabad. 2. BharadwajDineshM(2004)Panchangam–TheIndian Almanac, About Astrology, www.explocity.com/ Channels/Astrology/Panchangam.asp 3. Burghart (2000) In: http://www.suite101.com/ article.cfm/nature_sketches/33934. 4. De US, Joshi UR and Prakasa Rao GS (2004) Nakshatram based rainfall climatology. Mausam. 55(2),305. 5. Galacgac ES and Balisacan CM (2009) Traditional weather forecasting for sustainable agroforestry Research article Indian Society for Education and Environment (iSee)
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