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INSIDE
THE ONTARIO ELECTION
FEDERAL ELECTION, WHAT TO EXPECT
THOUGHTS ON THE QUEBEC ELECTION
PROVINCIAL AND MUNICIPAL POLLS
How Doug Ford skated to
Our UltraPoll results;
A fundamental shift in
Reviewing polls from
a majority
a consistent national
the electoral paradigm
New Brunswick, Toronto,
landscape in 2018
of Quebec politics
and Alberta
A brief history of Mainstreet Research. QUITO MAGGI
January 2010 – Founding of Mainstreet Technologies Dec. 9th 2013 – First public poll release
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Most accurate pollster of
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Toronto mayoral election Launch of Public Polling Fund
FOREWORD – 2018 Happy Anniversary Mainstreet! Today as we release o ur year in review, review, we mark the 5th anniversary of our very first public poll. On December 9th 2013, Mainstreet Technologies (now Mainstreet M ainstreet Research) released data on the voting intentions on the Island of Montreal. We haven’t looked back
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since then.
Mainstreet Technologies become Mainstreet Research Only public opinion firm to forecast NDP majority in Alberta Only public opinion firm to forecast Liberal majority federal government
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Correctly forecast Saskatchewan Party majority Most accurate pollster, pollster, Manitoba provincial election
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Since the launch of the Public Polling Fund in 2014, Mainstreet Research has provided media, academic researchers, nonprofit organizations and charities survey data valued at over $1.2 million with over 300 surveys sur veys conducted and published. We’re proud of this work and providing the public with timely and consistent snapshots of public opinion and will continue this work in 2019 and beyond.
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Conservative Party Leadership polling for iPolitics NDP Leadership polling for iPolitics BC general election polls correctly forecast outcomes Nova Scotia polls accurately forecast NB Liberal majority Calgary Alabama Special Election accurately forecast Democrat upset win
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Launch of quarterly UltraPoll PC Party Leadership polls predict coin toss between Ford and Elliott Accurately forecasting PC majority in Ontario Accurately forecast close result in New Brunswick Accurately forecasting rise of Quebec Solidaire and Coalition Avenir Quebec as dominant political forces in Quebec. Most accurate forecast of seats and voter intentions.
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2018 201 8 SUM SU M MARY We started 2018 with the launch in January of the quarterly UltraPoll, a national survey that measures federal and provincial voter intentions across Canada. We’ve now released UltraPoll results in January, April, July and November and will continue to do so in 2019 and beyond. The sample size of the UltraPoll is un like any other surveys we or other pollsters conduct for public release, between 7500 and 9500 samples are taken across
Island were accurate, the decline in turnout among
Canada. This quarterly poll helps us establish trends for both national horserace and issues, and provincial horserace and issues. Our investment in building random digit dialling frames has given IVR and random sampling new life, with over 70% cellular phones now part of our sample. This has increased our average
anglophone voters caused a wider margin of victory for the CAQ. Again, Mainstreet repeated the Daily Tracker in Quebec, this time in partnership with Group Capital Medias, and again it was a tremendous success. success. There were two other elections that we followed closely in 2018. The Ontario municipal cycle saw us
under 35 sample from 5% to 20%. The Ontario election of June 2018 saw a large field of pollsters releasing snapshots of voter intentions and other issues. Mainstreet was the closest to outcomes but Ekos, Forum and Ipsos were all extremely accurate. With the exception of one firm, the polls in Ontario
release polls in Toronto Toronto including snapshots of hotly contested ward races. We We also took a late snapshot of the Brampton mayoral election where former PC leader Patrick Brown defeated incumbent Linda Jeffrey as the poll showed. The BC Municipal election took place in the Fall of 2018 and we polled various
were representative of the results. Mainstreet launched an experiment in the 2018 Ontario election that was successful beyond our wildest expectations. The Ontario Daily Tracker Tracker,, available on our website daily via paywalled subscription, was the first
races including snapshots of the widely contested Vancouver Mayoral election. The biggest news of 2018 was the demise of the industry association that represents public opinion and market research firms in Canada, the MRIA. In a sudden and unexpected move, the MRIA declared bankruptcy
of its kind, direct to public polling content. With the decline of media budgets available to conduct public opinion research, we expect this model to become more common. The Quebec election of 2018 saw fewer firms conducting polls, and the results were less accurate with the emergence of the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) and Quebec Solidaire (QS) as the dominant political voices in Quebec. While the results outside Montreal
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in early August 2018. Much has been written and said about this development and like our many colleagues in the industry, we are working to ensure a smooth and effective transition to a new, open and transparent industry association. 2018 was a busy year and we look forward to releasing more public work with elections in Alberta, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland & Labrador scheduled along with possible elections in both BC and New Brunswick in 2019. The next federal election is also scheduled for the fall and we look forward to providing in-depth insights for our clients and the public.
THE ONTARIO ELECTION— HOW DOUG FORD SKATED TO A MAJORITY
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“Ford in Sudbury” by Doug Ford is licensed under CC BY–SA 2.0
The Ontario election that concluded on June 7, 2018 was different for a number of reasons. The addition of 17 seats from 107 to 124 was the result of redistribution that
March, just six weeks before the election campaign. Entering the election, Doug Ford had a commanding lead and looked unbeatable. We had polled the
accounted for population growth and matched the new federal riding boundaries in Ontario. The Progressive Conservatives began 2018 with Patrick Brown as their leader and all polls showing
PCs at over 50% but we were also finding evidence that this majority was grounded in pure negativity towards Kathleen Wynne and the Liberals and not anything positive towards the PCs, so much so we
looked like there was an opening for the NDP but our pre-election polling still had them behind the Liberals. The Liberal platform appeared to take all the oxygen on the left end of
that he would stroll to victory. Then in late January, he resigned amid allegations of sexual misconduct and launches the PCs into months of turmoil ending with the election of Doug Ford as their leader in
have yet to see any provincial premier poll so low in terms of favourability ratings. We were also detecting that Ontario voters were still looking for a progressive option and that they wanted change. That
the political spectrum while Andrea Horwath and the NDP was nonexistent. Then a few days before the campaign, things changed, voters started taking notice of the NDP plan and progressives started
Y YEAR EA R IN I N REVIEW R EVI EW | 2018
“Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne with partner Jane Rounthwaite” by Jason Hargrove is licensed under CC BY–SA 2.0
“Andrea-speaking” by Joey Coleman is licensed under CC BY–SA 2.0
“Ford in Sudbury” by Doug Ford is licensed under CC BY–SA 2.0
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turning to Horwath. Sure enough, we had the NDP pass the Liberals. The Liberals sank to third and throughout the entire election we
lead was at the beginning of the campaign. But we noticed that the PC vote was very efficient and even if the NDP won the popular
were watching to see if the Liberals would claw their way to official party status. After months of singular focus on the PCs, the attention turned back to the ballot question, change
vote, we could not find a scenario in which they could win. The NDP also suffered some negative media coverage in regards to some missteps with some of the candidates. Voters usually make up
or no change. Given that 70% of Ontarians had consistently told us it was time for change, including nearly 20% of Liberal voters, it was hard to foresee any outcome other than a PC majority government.
their minds during a long weekend and right after the Victoria Day long weekend, we saw the PCs take the lead for good. Voters had decided: they wanted change and the Doug Ford and the PCs were the most
Doug Ford ran a largely disciplined campaign but Andrea Horwath ran a great one, and they closed the gap. For a single day in late May, the NDP took the lead, which was surprising given how big the PC
likely to to win. As the appetite for change crested in the final week of the campaign, voters returned to the best chance for change and elected a majority PC government led by Doug Ford.
2019 FEDERAL ELECTION— WHAT WHA T TO EXPECT EXPE CT Our UltraPoll results have been showing a consistent national landscape over the course of 2018. While the governing Liberals have stayed approximately at 40%, the opposition Conservatives have varied between 33% and 37% and decided and leaning voters, while the NDP have continued to struggle, starting the year at 13% and ending the year at 11%.
Based on our most recent numbers, we would expect to see a significant Liberal majority government reelected in 2019. Based on our most recent numbers, we would expect to see a significant Liberal majority government re-elected in 2019. A few factors could impact these numbers and the forecast even ahead of the 2019 campaign.
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“2017 Canada Summer Games” by Marcel Druwe is licensed under CC BY–SA 2.0
The most significant factor is how the NDP performs in early 2019. The by-election in Burnaby South will be closely watched as NDP leader Jagmeet Singh looks to earn a seat in the House of Commons. While our poll in early November shows him in third place, there are still a high amount of undecided voters. As his campaign continues to work hard, the by-election is expected to be called in February and we know the Liberals and Conservatives will field candidates. If Singh wins, and gets in to Question Period and more media exposure to Canadians, perhaps he can turn around NDP fortunes. If he does not win, we would expect to see the NDP push to remove him as leader in favour of someone in caucus. It would be a total guess to say if such a move would improve NDP fortunes. The other factor that could impact
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the national landscape is the emergence of the People’s People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Bernier. Latest estimates have the party with well over 100 registered riding associations and our polls show
C C r e d n u d e s n e c i l s i r B A / r J l a s a C o l l e c r a M y b ” r e i n r e B e m i x a
“MPP Jagmeet Singh at his annual community BBQ” by BGM
Riding Association is licensed under CC BY–SA 2.0 he is competitive in his home riding of Beauce. While our riding poll shows him trailing within the margin of error error,, a projection by QC125 shows him leading marginally. While the PPC sits at 4% in our latest national survey, other firms put them between 1 and 2%. This is likely due to the fact that we add the name of
the party leader when we ask for party vote intention, and that Bernier is by far a more known commodity than his new party. Outside of the possible seat in Beauce, the PPC could make gains in the Atlantic region where they sit at 7% in New Brunswick, and in parts of Quebec (6%), Saskatchewan (6%) and Alberta (7%). The rise of PPC and the fall of the NDP all point to a very narrow path for the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer in 2019. With 11 months until the election however, however, and likely one of the most vicious campaigns Canadians have ever experienced expected, all this can change.
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Outside of the possible seat in Beauce, the PPC could make gains in the Atlantic region where they sit at:
7%
in New Brunswick, and in parts of
QUEBEC (6%) SASKATCHEWAN (6%) ALBERT ALBE RTA A (7%)
THOUGHTS ON THE QUEBEC ELECTION
which could not translate into any additional seats. The CAQ on the other hand had comfortable leads virtually everywhere off the Island of Montreal including many of the suburbs located in the 450 area code. But those leads extended to the centre of Quebec, the Montérégie, Quebec City, and even the Saguenay. It quickly became apparent that except for a few pockets of support for Quebec Solidaire in Quebec City, Sherbrooke, and Rouyn, and for the Parti Quebecois out in the Gaspé and the far north, the CAQ were going to sweep to victory. In addition to our Daily Tracker Tracker,, we also polled 69 of the 125 ridings across the Province, many of them on
This year Mainstreet brought its Daily Tracker to the Quebec election campaign for the first time. We did so in
multiple occasions. This allowed us to zero in on the individual races to see how the closer contests were doing. This additional polling gave us a much more accurate idea of how the new legislature was going to look like. The very new and unique concept of the Daily Tracker
conjunction with Group Capital Media; which consists of six major daily newspapers across the province. For the first time in Quebec media history, a provincial election was tracked on a daily basis beginning several days before the actual writs dropped right through until election day. Each night Mainstreet surveyed at least
gave us great notoriety and recognition across Quebec. One of the stated goals of Group Capital Medias as we began our collaboration together was that they wanted this collective effort to become the “Go To To Place” for the best and most detailed information during that campaign. By all accounts we succeeded.
STEVEN PINKUS
800 randomly selected Quebecers from across the As we approached election day, Mainstreet predicted province to see how they felt that the CAQ would win a about the election. We then majority government with As we approached election released our numbers daily 72 seats in the National with a three-day rolling total Assembly. The final result day, Mainstreet predicted that of at least 2,400 people was 74 CAQ seats. the CAQ would win a majority
sampled. Thanks to our We were also being government gove rnment with 72 seats in the RDD frames, we were able constantly cautioned about National Assembly. The final to reach a great many more the traditional Liberal Ballot result was 74 CAQ seats. cellular numbers which Box Bump or Prime a l’Urne also gave us much more as they say in French. representative sample among younger demographics. Conventional Conventional wisdom said that the CAQ lacked the
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This allowed us to predict the rise of Quebec Solidaire long before any other polling company, and to follow their growth beyond Montreal into Quebec City, Sherbrooke, and even to Rouyn-Noranda. From the beginning, despite the closeness in overall popular support, we could see that the CAQ vote was far
organizational muscle to get their vote out. As we showed, all of those external influences turned out to be wrong. In the end, we saw two races develop. The CAQ was poised to unseat the Liberal Party as the Government of Quebec and they succeeded. Quebec Solidaire however
more efficient than that of the Liberals. As we looked at our daily results from the various regions across Quebec, we could clearly see that the Liberals had huge leads on the Island of Montreal, especially in the west end. The size of those leads however meant that there were a lot of unnecessary votes for the Liberals in those regions
was looking to overtake the Parti Quebecois as the dominant sovereigntist political force in Quebec, and they succeeded. So what we saw was a fundamental shift in the electoral paradigm of Quebec politics. It was exciting to observe this shift from such a unique and close perspective.
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from the People’s Alliance. According to the New Brunswick edition of our November UltraPoll, just over 78% of New Brunswickers think that all parties should cooperation and avoid an election so soon, with 59.1% 59.1% strongly a greeing. 60.6% of respondents think that it is time for change in New Brunswick. This indicates that Higgs is on the right track with this move, but also that New Brunswickers want to see this legislature work and see Higgs actually governing, and not openly maneuvering himself into a better position and call another election quickly. This might seem chaotic and some commentators will wring their
“Premier Brian Gallant ” by Government of New Brunswick is licensed under CC BY–SA 2.0
THE NEW BRUNSWICK ELECTION
hands about elections delivering indecisive results for the legislature. However, if the electorate is undecided, or underwhelmed about their choices on the ballot, then we will see more results like
Needless to say that the biggest electoral electoral surprise this year came in New
these in New Brunswick or those in British Columbia last year. Our July British Columbia poll showed that a majority of British Columbians did not have a positive impression of any of the major party leaders. The
Brunswick. This election did not get the media attention that the Ontario or Quebec elections got this year, the fact that the election date was a week before the Quebec vote was a likely factor. But nonetheless, the Maritime province delivered delivered the biggest shock of the three provincial elections held this year. No party was able to get a majority with the
results of our survey released just before the election indicate similar ambivalence ambivalence about all the party leaders in New Brunswick. That said, there are significant policy differences
Progressive Progressive Conservatives led by Blaine Higgs winning 22 seats, and the governing Liberals led by Premier Gallant won 21 seats. The biggest surprise was the performance of Green Party and the People’s People’s Alliance, who won two and three seats respectively. The Gallant Liberals ended up winning the popular
between the PCs and the People’s Alliance so it is difficult to imagine that the a rrangement between the two working out for long,
vote, but they were plagued by their vote being especially if Kris Austin “Blaine Higgs, Leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick” by Blaine Higgs is licensed inefficient due to piling large leads in the north of the decides to push Higgs under CC BY–SA 2.0 province and in francophone areas. on curtailing official As it turned out, Brian Gallant failed in his a ttempt to become the first bilingualism. Against this backdrop, premier since 2003 to win re-election in New Brunswick, and Blaine New Brunswick will be a province Higgs ended becoming the Premier of New Brunswick thanks to support to watch in 2019.
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TORONTO ELECTION— DID FORD WIN?
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“Doug Ford Getting Grilled After a Debate” by Alex Guibord is licensed under CC BY–SA 2.0
Any politico will have read George Orwell’s seminal Nineteen Eighty-Four at least once in their lives. The dystopian story features three super-states; Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia in perpetual war with each other. At
shot at the mayor’s chair in this election before the job of leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario became available. The rest, as they say, is history. In the third corner, we have the progressive councillors
the beginning of the novel, Oceania is at war with Eurasia, but in the middle of the novel, the antagonist suddenly becomes Eastasia, which Oceania officials stating Toronto politics is looking like the same thing. In one corner, we have John Tory, the recently re-elected mayor of Toronto, and his allies on council working to build upon
in Toronto Toronto with no real leader (although some so me are touting councillors Josh Matlow and Gord Perks as options), but determined to thwart the agendas of both Tory and Ford. We get the sense that the next four fou r years in Toronto will be one of the sides saying the very Orwellian phrase;
Tory’s vision and achievements of his first term. In the second corner, we have Premier Doug Ford, the Progressive Conservative Conservative government, and his allies on council. The Premeir Premeir and the Mayor have had their differences in the past. Tory defeated Ford Ford in the 2014 2 014 mayoral election, and that Ford was launching another
“We’re at war with the Premier. We’ve always been at war with the Premier” and say the same when the battle shifts to a different antagonist. There will be some progressive who will quibble with this distinction and argue that Tory and Ford are ultimately conservatives conservatives and belong on the same
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side of the coin. This was certainly the claim made by Tory’s main challenger Jennifer Keesmaat during the municipal campaign. This is to make a serious mistake. We polled Torontonians twice during the municipal election and found that affordable housing, public transit, and crime are the top three issues that concerned them the most during the election. It is hard to imagine that they have left the collective conscience of Torontonians. Needless to say, Tory and Ford have very different views on all three issues. And these differences differences could lead to divisive battles between Toronto City Council and Queens’ Park over the next few years. Which leads us the first major skirmish among our three protagonists - the Ontario government’s government’s decision to shrink Toronto City Council from 47 councillors to 25. Team Ford was in loudly in favour, Team Progressive Progressive was just as strongly against the move, and Team Tory had their leader expressing concern with some Tory allies, such as budget chief Gary Crawford, being in favour of the move. The elections did go ahead with a 25 ward model, and while the Premier got what he wanted in terms of the size of council, he lost several allies on council in Giorgio Mammoliti, Vincent Crisanti (Ford’s cousin Michael Ford won in that race), and Frank Di Giorgio. On first blush, it looks the Mayor will have control of the council. Certainly there are some councillors who could oppose the Mayor on some issues, but it looks like Tory will not have much trouble getting his agenda passed. Progressives will certainly be well represented on council with Gord Perks, Josh Matlow, and Paula Fletcher returning. The only side without robust representation is the Premier. So on first blush, moving to 25 councillors seems to be a poor strategic decision by the Premier. However, this setback will not deter the Ford administration administration in pursuing their municipal affairs agenda. The PCs are considering taking control of the TTC according to some reports, and strategists are speculating that the provincial government government will undo Bill 139, which would replace the Ontario Municipal Board. Both decisions will spark strong reactions from City Council, and we have seen that so far Ford has been a premier that wants to get a lot done very quickly. Permanent conflict in City Hall for the next while? It sure looks like it.
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ALB E RT ALBE RTA A 2019— OUT OF NOTLEY’S NOTLEY’S HANDS? HAN DS? We have been polling Alberta periodically as part of our UltraPoll series and we have consistently found the United Conservative Party led by Jason Kenney leading comfortably over the governing NDP. Three out of the
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four UltraPoll Alberta editions show that the UCP have over 50% support and that Notley faces an uphill battle to win the provincial election tentatively scheduled for May 2019. The NDP’s best numbers were in our April UltraPoll edition where they scored 35.4% support. That also came around the time when the Kinder Morgan pipeline debate was at its height in terms of intensity, and Notley is a strong proponent of the expansion. Not surprisingly, the same poll found that 77.5% of Albertans strongly backed the expansion, and 9.7% more respondents than that said that they were more likely to vote NDP because of o f Notley’s stance in favour of the pipeline expansion. Fast forward to our more recent round of Alberta polling where we asked Canadians about their thoughts on climate change and carbon pricing. It showed that Albertans were less likely than all other Canadians to support a carbon tax, less likely to accept that climate change is real, less likely to think that solving the issue of climate change should not mean having the economy suffer, less likely likely to say that private companies should have to pay to pollute the environment, and less likely to believe that we owe it to future generations to solve climate change even if it means paying more taxes. Against that backdrop, it is not surprising to see the anti-carbon tax rhetoric of Kenney playing well in Alberta, even though it might the only jurisdiction where it is playing well. Moreover, our polling has a lso shown that optimism about the Canadian economy and one’s personal finances is lowest in Alberta. Whether one likes it or not, Alberta is very much a resource-dependent resource-dependent economy, and given that the price of oil is dropping tremendously, Albertans are becoming more worried about the economy. That usually leads to an electorate that would want change.
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3 OUT OF 4
A S – Y B C C r e d n u d e s n e c i l s i a t r e b l A f o r e i m e r P y b ” . . . y e l t o N l e h c a R r e i m e r P “
UltraPoll Alberta editions show that the UCP have over 50% support
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“Premier Rachel Notley’s statement...” by Premier Rachel Notley is licensed under CC BY–SA 2.0
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The price of oil - and the economic pessimism that comes with it is something that Notley can’t
at similar levels of support as they were in 2015. As it stands, Notley is behind
surrounding the UCP’s policies, whether Albertans feel good about embracing change, or if this
control but will work against her in this election. We have also observed that the UCP’s support is roughly the same as what the PCs and the Wildrose got in the 2015 election.
thanks to events fully outside of her control. It is clear that she and the NDP are the main progressive option in Alberta, but peeling of support from the other progressive parties will not be enough - she has
support is based in sheer negativity about the NDP or economic pessimism - similar to what we found in Ontario before its election. We will be looking at these issues in our Alberta Daily Tracker,
It is to Kenney’s credit that the UCP support has not bled any support to any other parties, but again, we see Notley falling behind due to something that she is not responsible, even if the NDP were
to take support from the UCP. We will be doing deeper dives into Alberta in order to try to understand the nature of the UCP support - specifically whether there is actually consensus
which will contain a rolling sample of 1000 Albertans, starting on the day that the writ drops in Alberta. Please watch our social media accounts for more information.
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TOO MANY ELECTIONS, TIME FOR MORE INSIGHT that respondents are now staying on the phone longer and longer and taking surveys with more and more questions. We have heard from critics of IVR that it is not good for long questionnaires, but this has not been the case for us in 2018. We have had good results with
DR. JOSEPH L. ANGOLANO
The achievement that I am most proud of in this last year at Mainstreet Research is the dramatic improvement in our sampling methods. This has allowed to get more
longer questionnaires for our private clients, and with the November edition of the UltraPoll, we presented a series of insights about what Canadians thought about the importance of climate change what, if anything, should be done to tackle the issue. We at Mainstreet Research believe that the opinions
representative samples and we have dramatically improved our ability to predict the elections of 2018. We were tied for the most accurate pollster in the Ontario election, and we were the first to forecast a majority win for the Coalition Avenir Quebec in the Quebec election. We also managed to call
of Canadians matter at all times and we endeavour to understand those opinions. But beyond knowing who Canadians will vote for in the election, or what they think about whatever policy plank is important, we want to understand why Canadians believe what they believe, and what factors are
the Calgary Olympic bid plebiscite correctly. These results were particularly welcome after the fiasco of the Calgary mayoral election of last year. As many of our followers know, I wrote a root and branch review in the aftermath of that election which made significant changes to our
We at Mainstreet Research believe that the opinions of Canadians matter at all times and we endeavour to understand those opinions.
horserace numbers. We have a proud record of calling elections correctly, but we feel just as strongly that the opinions of Canadians outside of
methodology. I made a particular note that our former methodology was structurally unable to reach Canadians between the ages of 18 to 34, and I was particularly happy to see
elections matter just as much as they do during the writ. As mentioned earlier, we did investigate what Canadians thought about climate change. We also polled on which religious
that now more respondents from the 18-34 age cohort
symbols Quebecers thought should be banned from the public sphere. And we will spend the months in the lead up to the Alberta election probing the nature of UCP support. These are just some of the things that you can expect from us in 2019.
take our surveys. In my report, I said that IVR had a limited shelf life, but today I can say that we likely have extended the life of IVR surveys for some years yet. If I can channel Bob Ross for a moment, another “happy accident” that I discovered from our work this year is
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driving Canadians’ opinions on these issues in 2019. This is why you will see us provide a lot more insights from our polls that just the
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CONTACT INFORMATION In Ottawa:
In Toronto:
Quito Maggi, President
[email protected]
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
[email protected]
Find us online at: •
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www.mainstreetresearch.ca twitter.com/MainStResearch facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
