POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL OCTOBER 15th, 2018 - 6 AM EST
Toronto •
Three Wards To Watch
15th October 2018
METHODOLOGY
ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of three surveys conducted in the wards of Don Valley West, Etobicoke North, and Scarborough North that were conducted between October 10th and 11th among residents of these wards, aged 18 years of age or older. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones.
With 20 years of political experience in all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on international public affairs.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet Research from various commerically available sources and random digit dialing. The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party. The margin of error and sample size for each survey is as follows: Don Valley West: n=609, +/- 3.97% Etobicoke North: n=423, +/- 4.76% Scarborough North: n=458, +/- 4.58% (full methodology appears at the end of this report)
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, and was the only polling rm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections in November 2017, and the Alabama special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is a member of the World Association for Public Opinion Research and meets international and Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
[email protected] In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
[email protected] Find us online at: www.mainstreetresearch.ca twitter.com/MainStResearch facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
BURNSIDE AND FORD NARROWLY AHEAD IN THEIR COUNCIL RACES
15 October 2018 (Toronto, ON) – Jon Burnside and Michael Ford have narrow leads in their races over fellow incumbents Jaye Robinson and Vincent Crisanti, respectively. Those are the ndings of a series of new Mainstreet Research surveys of Toronto wards in
the lead up to the October 22nd election. The polls were conducted on October 10 and 11th. “The respective leads held by Burnside and Ford are both with the margin of error and indicates that both of these contests between incumbents are too close to call at this moment,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “Burnside is in a better position in Don Valley West than Ford in Etobicoke Centre, but no one should be surprised if either Robinson or Crisanti, or both, end up winning on October 22nd”. Among decided voters in Don Valley West, Burnside leads Robinson by 3.4%. While in Etobicoke North, Ford has a 2.8% lead over Crisanti. Scarborough North was also polled, and is one of the few wards where an incumbent is not running. In that race, recently retired councillor Chin Lee’s former constituency assistant Maggie Chi has 24.9% support among decided voters, while local activists Ashwani Bh ardwaj and Cynthia Lai have 18.7% and 13.8%, respectively. But Maggi notes that that there is a lot of apathy and voter confu sion in Scarborough North. “Nearly 50% of Scarborough North residents say that they are undecided with just over a week left and among all voters, more respondents chose ‘another candidate’ over secondplace candidate Bhardwaj,” said Maggi. “This tells us that Scarborough North voters really do not know who their candidates for councillor are,” continued Maggi. “Scarborough North will likely lead the way for low voter turnout among the Toronto wards because of this.” -30For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact: Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 -
[email protected]
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election were held today?
Don Valley West 4% 5.1% 23.7%
35.9%
47.2% 2.7%
All Voters
Decided Voters
3.8% 43.8%
33.9%
Jon Bur nside
Jaye Robins on
Nikola Str eker
Another Candidate
Undecided
Etobicoke North 16.9% 24%
24.2% 31.7%
9.8%
All Voters
Decided Voters 5.2%
13%
7.1%
7% 26.5%
Vincent Cr isanti
34.5%
Naiima Far ah A no nother Ca nd ndida te te
Michael For d Unde ci cided
Shir ish Patel
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election were held today?
Scarborough North 8.5%
13.3%
49.1%
All Voters
7.1%
2.7% 5% 4.4% 9.9%
18% 18 %
18.7%
8.9%
Decided Voters 24.9%
10.3%
5.5% 13.8%
As hw ani Bhar dw aj Neethan Saba
Maggie Chi Felicia Samuel
Cynthia Lai Another Ca Candidate
Mahboob Mian Undecided
Breakouts Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election were held today? Don Valley West
(all voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Jon Burnside
35.9%
36.6%
35%
43. 3%
29.6%
34.7%
35.5%
Jaye Robinson
33.9%
37.3%
29.9%
33.3%
22%
42.9%
38.5%
Nikola Streker
3.8%
5.5%
1.8%
5%
6.1%
1.6%
2.2%
Another Candidate
2.7%
2%
3.5%
-
6.2%
2. 4%
2.2%
Undecided
23.7%
18.6%
29.7%
18.3%
36.1%
18.4%
21.7%
Unweighted Frequency
609
221
388
27
59
180
343
Weighted Fr equency
609
331
278
166
157
149
137
(decided voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Jon Bur nside
47.2%
45%
49.8%
52.9%
46.5%
43.2%
45.4%
Jaye Robinson
43.8%
45.3%
42%
41.3%
34.2%
51.7%
49.1%
Nikola Str eker
5.1%
7.1%
2.7%
5.8%
9. 2%
2%
2.8%
Another Candidate
4%
2.7%
5.5%
-
10.1%
3.1%
2.7%
Unweighted Fr equency
474
174
300
21
36
147
270
Weighted Fr equency
474
257
217
129
122
116
107
Etobicoke North
(all voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Vincent Crisanti
24.2%
27.5%
21.2%
21.1%
20.5%
21.3%
38.8%
Naiima Far ah
5.2%
3.7%
6.5%
7.9%
4.5%
4.7%
1.9%
Michael For d
26.5%
32.6%
20.8%
15.8%
31.8%
32.3%
30.4%
Shirish Patel
7%
4%
9.9%
10.5%
4.5%
7.9%
3.3%
Another Candidate
13%
15.2%
11%
21%
18.2%
4.7%
2.8%
Undecided
24%
17%
30.5%
23.6%
20.4%
29.1%
22.9%
Unweighted Frequency
423
179
244
38
44
127
214
Weighted Frequency
423
203
220
137
106
103
78
(decided and voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Vincent Crisanti
31.7%
33%
30.4%
26.8%
25.8%
30.2%
50.1%
Naiima Far ah
7.1%
4.5%
9.5%
10.8%
5.8%
7%
2.4%
Michael For d
34.5%
39.5%
29.9%
19.8%
40%
44.8%
39.3%
Shirish Patel
9.8%
4.9%
14.3%
14.6%
6.3%
11.1%
4.4%
A nother Candidate
16.9%
18.1%
15.9%
28%
22.2%
6.8%
3.8%
Unweighted Frequency
319
145
174
29
35
90
165
Weighted Fr equency
319
153
166
103
80
78
59
Scarborough North
(all voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Ashwani Bhar dwaj
8.5%
9.1%
7.9%
13.7%
10.3%
4.9%
2.2%
Maggie Chi
13.3%
14.1%
12.5%
15.4%
9.2%
13.6%
17.2%
Cynthia Lai
7.1%
6.5%
7.7%
2.5%
7%
10.2%
9.8%
Mahboob Mian
2.7%
0.7%
4.6%
-
6.8%
0.7%
2.3%
Neethan Saba
5%
7.7%
2.5%
7.9%
3.4%
5.1%
3.4%
Felicia Samuel
4.4%
2.6%
6.1%
-
3.2%
6.3%
10.8%
Another Candidate
9.9%
15.8%
4.6%
10.3%
10.4%
11.7%
5.9%
Undecided
49.1%
43.5%
54.1%
50.1%
49.8%
47.4%
48.5%
Unweighted Fr equency
458
208
250
33
50
131
244
Weighted Fr equency
458
218
2 40
120
146
114
78
(decided and voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Ashwani Bhar dwaj
18.7%
17.4%
19.8%
29.8%
25.1%
8.4%
4.4%
Maggie Chi
24.9%
23%
26.5%
29.8%
15.1%
26.4%
33.3%
Cynthia Lai
13.8%
10.9%
16.5%
6.9%
16.1%
16.6%
16.1%
Mahboob Mian
5.5%
1.3%
9.4%
-
13.6%
1.6%
4.4%
Neethan Saba
10.3%
15.3%
5.7%
16%
8%
10%
6%
Felicia Samuel
8.9%
5.5%
12%
-
4.5%
14.2%
23.1%
A nother Candidate
18%
26.6%
10.2%
17.6%
17.6%
22.6%
12.6%
Unweighted Frequency
235
119
116
17
25
68
125
Weighted Frequency
235
96
105
52
64
50
34
Questionnaire On October 22 2018, you will have a chance to vote in your municipal election. Which candidate for City Council would you vote, or are leaning towards voting for, for if an election were held today? (Don Valley West - rst ve
responses randomized) Jon Burnside Minh Le Tanweer Khan Jaye Robinson Nikola Streker Another Candidate Undecided
(Scarborough North rst seven responses
randomized) Ashwani Bhardwaj Maggie Chi Cynthia Lai Sheraz Khan Mahboob Mian Neethan Saba Felicia Samuel Another Candidate Undecided What is your gender?
Male Female What is your age group?
(Etobicoke North - rst four
responses randomized) Vincent Crisanti Naiima Farah Michael Ford Shirish Patel Another Candidate Undecided
18 to 34 years of age 35 to 49 years of age 50 to 64 years of age 65 years of age or older
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT The analysis in this report is based on results of three surveys conducted in the wards of Don Valley West, Etobicoke North, and Scarborough-North that were conducted between October 10th and 11th among residents of these wards, aged 18 years of age or older. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of the three wards surveyed. This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-party organization. The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet Research from various commerically available sources and random digit dialing. At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls were staggered over different times of day to maximize the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the eld period.
The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www. mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question. The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age and gender. The margin of error at the 95% condence level and sample size for each survey is as follows:
Don Valley West: n=609, +/- 3.97%, Etobicoke North: n=423, +/- 4.76%, Scarborough North: n=458, +/- 4.58%. 4.58%. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding. Wherever W herever a candidate received less than 1.5%, his or her estimates were folded into the “another candidate” column. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical difculties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the ndings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
