POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL OCTOBER 16th, 2018 - 6 AM EST
Toronto •
Four Wards To Watch
16th October 2018
METHODOLOGY
ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of four surveys conducted in the wards of Beaches-East York, Don Valley East, Scarborough Southwest, and Toronto-St. Paul’s that were conducted between October 10th and 11th among residents of these thes e wards, aged 18 years of age or older. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones.
With 20 years of political experience in all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on international public affairs.
The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet Research from various commerically available sources and random digit dialing. The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was not sponsored by a third party. The margin of error and sample size for each survey is as follows: Beaches-East York: n=572, +/- 4.08% Don Valley East: n=479, +/- 4.46% Scarborough Southwest: n=615, +/- 3.93% Toronto-St. Paul’s: n=608, +/- 3.96% (full methodology appears at the end of this report)
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, and was the only polling rm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections in November 2017, and the Alabama special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is a member of the World Association for Public Opinion Research and meets international and Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
[email protected] In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
[email protected] Find us online at: www.mainstreetresearch.ca twitter.com/MainStResearch facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
VIRTUAL TIES IN TORONTO ST. PAUL’S AND SCARBOROUGH SOUTHWEST, MINNANWONG AND KELLWAY WELL AHEAD
16 October 2018 (Toronto, ON) – Joe Mihevc and Josh Matlow are in a statistical tie in the council race in Toronto St. Paul’s, as are Gary Crawford and Michelle Holland-Berardinetti in Scarborough Southwest. Those are the second set of ndings of a series of new Mainstreet Research surveys of
Toronto wards in the lead up to the October 22nd election. The polls were conducted on October 10 and 11th. “We have another two races that are too close to call,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “While Matlow and Crawford have narrow leads in their respective races, all four candidates will need strong nishes and get-out-the vote efforts to win, as it
is impossible to rule out victories by either Mihevc or Holland-Berardinetti.” Crawford leads Holland-Berardinetti by 2.8%, while Matlow has a slender 1.8% lead over Mihevc. Both leads are within the respective margins of error. “These polls were done before John Tory’s endorsement of Mihevc, so the effect of that endorsement on the Toronto-St. Paul’s race still remains to be seen,” said Maggi. In Beaches-East York, former MP Matthew Kellway maintains mai ntains a solid lead with 43.7% support, with Brad Bradford, another Tory-endorsed candidate, coming in at nearly 32%. “The Matlow campaign will carefully look at these results in Beaches-East York as they show the potential impact of a Tory endorsement”, continued Maggi. “We didn’t list Bradford as an option in our last Beaches-East York poll and he could not have been this thi s high if you look at the “another candidate” totals in our previous poll.” “Tory’s endorsement has certainly given Bradford a big boost, and could give Mihevc the win if there is a similar impact in Toronto-St. Paul’s.” The fourth race polled was Don Valley East, where incumbent Denzil Minnan-Wong has 43.2% support, while former MPP and Ontario Liberal cabinet minister David Caplan has 24.3% among decided voters. -30For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact: Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 -
[email protected]
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election were held today?
Beaches-East Beache s-East York 19.1%
21.4%
31.9%
33.1%
1.9% 1.6%
All Voters
Decided Voters
2.9% 2.4% 29.2%
12.9%
Br ad Br adf or d
43.7%
David D el Gr ande
Matthew Kellway
Diane Dy Dyson
Another Candidate
Undecided
Don Valley Valley East Ea st 4.2%
7.3%
3.5%
9.4%
5.1% 16.5%
31.7%
24.3%
All Voters
Decided Voters 7.2%
2.7%
43.2%
2.4% 3.5%
10.3% 28.8%
A ria Alavi D imitr e Popov
D avid Caplan
Stephen Ksiazek
Michael Woulfe
D enzil Minnan-Wong
Another Ca Candidate
Undecided
Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election were held today?
Scarborough Southwest 8.8%
11.9%
12.2%
2.1% 3.1%
28.9%
2.9%
25.9%
All Voters
Decided Voters
33.5% 8.7%
36.3% 2% 23.6%
Gerard Ge rard Arb Arbo our
Mohs Mo hsin in Bh Bhui uiya yan n
Miche Mi chell lle e Ho Holl llan andd-Be Berard rardin inet etti ti
Gary Ga ry Craw rawfo ford rd
Suma Su man n Ro Royy
Anoth Ano ther er Ca Cand ndid idat ate e
Undecided
Toronto-St. Paul’s 1.9%
2.8% 2.4% 4.1% 1.8%
3.2% 5.6% 2.8%
28.7%
41.9%
All Voters
Decided Voters
31.9%
43.7%
29.2%
Elizabeth Cook
Ar tur Langu
Josh Matlow
I an Lipton
Joe Mi Mihevc
Bob Murphy
Undecided
Breakouts Which candidate for City Council would you vote for if an election were held today? Beaches-East York (all voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Br ad Br adf or d
21. 4%
21. 2%
21. 5%
18. 7%
19. 9%
20. 4%
27%
D avid D el Gr ande
1. 9%
2. 1%
1. 8%
3. 2%
2. 2%
0. 5%
1. 4%
D iane D yson
1. 6%
1. 3%
1. 8%
-
1. 2%
3. 9%
1. 5%
Matthew Kellway
29. 2%
30. 4%
28. 1%
34. 4%
27. 7%
27. 5%
26. 4%
Another Candidate
12. 9%
12. 2%
13. 5%
9. 2%
18. 8%
11. 3%
12. 5%
Undecided
33. 1%
32. 8%
33. 3%
34. 4%
30. 2%
36. 4%
31. 2%
Unweighted Fr equency
572
229
343
32
86
176
278
Weighted Fr equency
572
269
303
158
142
137
136
(decided voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Br ad Br adf or d
31. 9%
31. 5%
32. 3%
28. 5%
28. 5%
32. 1%
39. 2%
D avid D el Gr ande
2. 9%
3. 2%
2. 6%
4. 9%
3. 2%
0. 9%
2. 1%
D iane D yson
2. 4%
1. 9%
2. 8%
-
1. 7%
6. 1%
2. 1%
Matthew Kellway
43. 7%
45. 5%
42. 1%
52. 5%
39. 7%
43. 1%
38. 4%
Another Candidate
19. 1%
17. 9%
20. 2%
14. 1%
26. 9%
17. 7%
18. 2%
Unw eighted Fr equency
384
156
228
21
60
112
191
Weighted Fr equency
384
181
203
106
95
92
91
Don Valley East (all voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Ar ia A lavi
7.3%
9.1%
5%
21.5%
1.5%
0.7%
3. 9%
David Caplan
16.5%
17. 1%
15.8%
17.4%
9.1%
20. 5%
19. 5%
Stephen Ksiazek
7.2%
10.1%
3.8%
12.2%
5.3%
7.6%
3. 1%
Denz il Minnan-Wong
28.8%
25. 5%
32.7%
22.6%
37. 4%
23. 3%
32.4%
D imitre Popov
3.5%
4. 9%
1.8%
4.1%
3. 8%
2. 9%
3.1%
Michael Woulfe
2.4%
1.6%
3.3%
2.6%
-
3.6%
3. 5%
Another Candidate
2. 7%
2.4%
3%
-
5.3%
2.5%
3.1%
Undecided
31.7%
29.3% 29
34.5% 34
19.6%
37.6%
39%
31. 5%
Unw eighted Frequency
479
178
301
30
53
115
281
Weighted Frequency
479
260
219
130
123
117
108
(decided voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Ar ia A lavi
9.4%
11.4%
7.1%
26. 7%
2.4%
1.2%
5.6%
David Caplan
24.3%
24. 4%
24.1%
21.7%
14.6%
33. 5%
28. 4%
Stephen Ksiazek
10.3%
13.8%
6.2%
15%
8.5%
12.3%
4. 5%
Denzil Minnan-Wong
43.2%
37. 4%
50%
28.3%
59.7%
38. 2%
47. 4%
D imitre Popov
5.1%
6. 9%
2.9%
5%
6. 1%
4. 7%
4. 5%
Michael Woulfe
3.5%
2.4%
4.8%
3.3%
-
5.9%
5. 1%
Another Candidate
4. 2%
3.6%
4. 9%
-
8.5%
4.1%
4.5%
Unweighted Frequency
322
115
207
23
34
69
196
Weighted Frequency
322
175
147
68
83
79
73
Scarborough Southwest Southwest (all voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Ger ar d Ar bour
8. 8%
10. 6%
7. 1% 7.
13. 7%
7. 3%
7. 3%
5%
Mohsin Bhuiyan
2. 1%
3. 4%
1%
2. 8%
1. 1%
2. 9%
1. 3%
Gar y Cr awf or d
25. 9%
28. 3%
23. 8%
19. 1%
21. 6%
27. 7%
39. 5%
Michelle Holland-Ber ar dinetti
23. 6%
17. 3%
29. 2%
23. 7%
21. 3%
24%
25. 6%
Suman Roy
2%
2. 9%
1. 3% 1.
-
4. 9%
3. 4%
-
A nother Candidate
8. 7%
10. 7%
6. 9%
16. 5%
5. 9%
5. 1%
4. 7%
Undecided
28. 9%
26. 8%
30. 7%
24. 2%
37. 9%
29. 7%
23. 8%
Unweighted Fr equency
615
254
361
37
84
178
316
Weighted Fr equency
615
291
324
187
150
156
122
(decided voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Ger ar d Ar bour
12. 2%
14. 5%
10. 2%
17. 9%
11. 6%
10. 4%
6. 6%
Mohsin Bhuiyan
2. 9%
4. 4%
1. 6%
3. 6%
1. 9%
4%
1. 7%
Gar y Cr awfor d
36. 3%
38. 7%
34. 2%
25. 1%
34. 7%
39. 3%
51. 9%
Michelle Holland-Ber ar dinetti
33. 5%
23. 8%
42. 1%
31. 9%
34. 5%
34. 3%
33. 6%
Suman Roy
3. 1%
4. 3%
2%
-
7. 7%
4. 8%
-
Another Candidate
11. 9%
14. 2%
9. 9%
21. 5%
9. 6%
7. 2%
6. 2%
Unw eighted Fr equency
446
185
261
28
52
125
241
Weighted Fr equency
446
211
235
136
109
113
88
Toronto-St. Paul’s (all voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Eliz abeth Cook
1.9%
1%
2.9%
3.1%
1.9%
0.5%
1.5%
Artur Langu
2.4%
4%
0.5%
6.3%
-
0.9%
0.9%
Ian Lipton
4.1%
4.7%
3.2%
9.4%
0.9%
2%
2%
Bob Murphy
1.8%
1.2%
2.6%
3.1%
1.9%
1%
0.9%
Josh Matlow
31.9%
35.5%
27.5%
25.3%
22.2%
37%
46.9%
Joe Mihevc
29.2%
29%
29.4%
24.9%
34.6%
31.8%
26.8%
Undecided
28.7%
24.4% 24
34% 34
28%
38.3%
26.8%
21.1%
Unweighted Frequency
608
193
415
22
73
161
352
Weighted Frequency
608
335
273
191
149
131
137
(decided voters) Total
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
Eliz abeth Cook
2.8%
1.5%
4.4%
4.8%
3%
0.7%
2%
Artur Langu
3.2%
5.2%
0.7%
8.3%
-
1.4%
1%
Ian Lipton
5.6%
6.1%
5%
13.1%
1.7%
2.5%
2.5%
Bob Murphy
2.8%
1.8%
3.9%
4.8%
3%
1.2%
1.2%
Josh Matlow
43.7%
46.6%
40.2%
33.3%
35.7%
50.8%
60.1%
Joe Mihevc
41.9%
38.8%
45.8%
35.7%
56.6%
43.4%
33.3%
Unweighted Frequency
455
145
310
15
43
115
282
Weighted Frequency
455
251
204
143
111
98
103
Questionnaire On October 22 2018, you will have a chance to vote in your municipal election. Which candidate for City Council would you vote, or are leaning towards voting for, for if an election were held today? (Beaches-East York - rst four responses randomized) Brad Bradford David Del Grande Diane Dyson Matthew Kellway Another Candidate Undecided (Don Valley East - rst six responses randomized) Aria Alavi David Caplan Stephen Ksiazek Denzil Minnan-Wong Dimitre Popov Michael Woulfe Another Candidate Undecided (Scarborough Southwest - rst seven responses randomized)
Gerard Arbour Mohsin Bhuiyan Gary Crawford Michelle Holland-Berardinetti Suman Roy Another Candidate Another Candidate Undecided (Toronto-St. Paul’s - rst six responses randomized) Elizabeth Cook Artur Langu Ian Lipton Bob Murphy Josh Matlow Joe Mihevc Undecided
What is your gender? Male Female What is your age group? 18 to 34 years of age 35 to 49 years of age 50 to 64 years of age 65 years of age or older
METHODOLOGY STATEMENT The analysis in this report is based on results of four surveys conducted in the wards of Beaches-East York, Don Valley East, Scarborough Southwest, and Toronto-St. Paul’s that were conducted between October 10th and 11th among residents of these wards, aged 18 years of age or older. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of the four wards surveyed. This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-party organization. The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet Research from various commerically available sources and random digit dialing. At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number. The calls were staggered over different times of day to maximize the chances of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible across the eld period. The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www. mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis preceding the question. The sample was weighted by population parameters parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults 18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age and gender. The margin of error at the 95% condence level and sample size for each survey is as follows:
Beaches-East York: n=572, +/- 4.08%, Don Valley East: n=479, +/- 4.46%, Scarborough Southwest: n=615, +/- 3.93%Toronto-St. Paul’s: n=608, +/- 3.96%. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding. Wherever a candidate received less than 1.5%, his or her estimates were folded into the “another candidate” column. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical difculties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the ndings of opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.