Scenario 1
Year
Overweight In US
Population Trying to Lose Weight (35%)
Comfortable With Weight Loss drugs (15%)
Medibical Will Capture
1
71,060,000
24,871,000
3,730,650
10%
2
71,060,000
24,871,000
3,730,650
15%
3
71,060,000
24,871,000
3,730,650
2 0%
4
71,060,000
24,871,000
3,730,650
2 5%
5
71,060,000
24,871,000
3,730,650
30%
Scenario 2
Year
US Pop
34% Overweight
12% Target Market
Metabical Captures
1
209,000,000
71,060,000
8,527,200
10%
2
209,000,000
71,060,000
8,527,200
15%
3
209,000,000
71,060,000
8,527,200
2 0%
4
209,000,000
71,060,000
8,527,200
2 5%
5
209,000,000
71,060,000
8,527,200
30%
Scenario 3
Year
Market
%
Capitalizatio n
One Supply(20%*74. 80)
1
4,300,000
30
1,290,000
$19,298,400
2
4,300,000
35
1,505,000
$22,514,800
3
4,300,000
40
1,720,000
$25,731,200
4
4,300,000
45
1,935,000
$28,947,600
5
4,300,000
50
2,150,000
$32,164,000
Population Captured
One Supply(20%*24. 80)
Two Supply(60%*49. 60)
Full Cycle(20%*74.4 0)
373,065
1,850,402
11,102,414
5,551,207
559,598
2,775,604
16,653,622
8,326,810
746,130
3,700,805
22,204,829
11,102,414
932,663
4,626,006
27,756,036
13,878,018
1,119,195
5,551,207
33,307,234
16,653,621
Captured
One Supply(20% * $24.80)
Two Supply(60% * $49.60)
Full Cycle(20% * $74.40)
852,720
$4,229,491
$25,376,947
$12,688,474
1,279,080
$6,344,237
$38,065,421
$19,032,710
1,705,440
$8,458,982
$50,753,894
$25,376,947
2,131,800
$10,573,728
$63,442,368
$31,721,184
2,558,160
$12,688,474
$76,130,842
$38,065,421
Two Supply(60%*149. 6)
Full Cycle(20%*224. 2)
$115,790,400
$57,895,200
$135,088,800
$67,544,400
$154,387,200
$77,193,600
$173,685,600
$86,842,800
$192,984,000
$96,492,000