Metabical Calculations

Demand estimation-Method 1 total population of overweight people 25 to 30 BMI potential market 15 percent of potenial market 1st year 2st year 3nd year 4rd year 5th year total packs sold in 5 years(millions)

Millions

Demand estimation-Method 2 total population of overweight people 25 to 30 bmi potential market(comfortable with weight loss) 15 percent of potenial market 1st year 2st year 3nd year 4rd year 5th year total packs sold in 5 years(millions)

Millions

Demand estimation-Method 3 total population of overweight people 25 to 30 BMI female women age grp 35-65 (percentage) potential user (millions) 1ST year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 5th year total packs sold in 5 years

Millions

230 78.2 27.37 4.1055 0.41055 0.615825 0.8211 1.026375 1.23165

230 78.2 9.384 9.384 0.9384 1.4076 1.8768 2.346 2.8152

230 78.2 46.92 21.6 4.3 1.29 1.505 1.72 1.935 2.15

R&D manufacturing budget(5 years) marketing budget(5 years) Total (mill) calculation of net profit $75 $125

400 6 115 521 estimation by method 1 -344.675792 -109.3173302

$150 Calculation of ROI $75 $125 $150

8.397208 Method 1 -0.66156582 -0.209822131 0.016117482

Users who repurchase once (60%)

Users who complete the course(20%)

0.24633 0.369495 0.49266 0.615825 0.73899

repurchase(60%)

0.049266 0.073899 0.098532 0.123165 0.147798

complete the course(20%)

0.56304 0.84456 1.12608 1.4076 1.68912

repurchase(60%)

0.112608 0.168912 0.225216 0.28152 0.337824

complete the course(20%)

0.774 0.903 1.032 1.161 1.29

estimation by method 2

0.258 0.301 0.344 0.387 0.43

estimation by method 3 -119.516096 418.4461024

-135.896 380.0524

687.507904 Method 2

638.104 Method 3

-0.229397497 0.803159506 1.319592906

-0.260836852 0.729467179 1.224767754

overall sales

0.706146 1.059219 1.412292 1.765365 2.118438 7.06146

overall sales

1.614048 2.421072 3.228096 4.03512 4.842144 16.14048

overall sales

2.322 2.709 3.096 3.483 3.87 15.48