Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang Flek 1 sibel
PENGENDALIAN MONETER DALAM SISTEM NILAI TUKAR YANG FLEKSIBEL (Konsiderasi kemungkinan penerapan inflation targeting di Indonesia)
W ijoyo Santoso dan Iskandar *) Beralihnya sistem nilai tukar rupiah dari sistem mengambang terkendali (managed floating exchange rate)ke sistem nilai tukar mengambang penuh (floating exchange rate)memberikan dampak terhadap kebijakan moneter di Indonesia. Nilai tukar yang sebelumnya digunakan sebagai salah satu nominal anchor dalam pencapaian sasaran akhir kebijakan moneter tidak berlangsung lama digunakan lagi. Sementara dengan semakin terbukanya perekonomian Indonesia, nilai tukar rupiah sangat rentan terhadap arus lalu lintas modal internasional yang bergerak sedemikian dinamis. Pasar keuangan yang berkembang pesat sebagai imbas keterbukaan tersebut telah mendorong ketidak stabilan permintaan akan uang sehingga telah mengurangi efektivitas kebijakan moneter dengan pendekatan kuantitas. Ketidakstabilan permintaan uang tersebut antara lain disebabkan pesatnya perkembangan produk-produk keuangan dan terjadinya decoupling antara sektor keuangan dan sektor riil dimana uang bukan hanya sebagai alat transaksi tetapi juga sebagai barang yang diperdagangkan. Pengujian empiris dengan menggunakan vector autoregression dan Granger causality test versi Hsiao menunjukkan bahw a kebijakan moneter dengan inflation targeting dapat digunakan di Indonesia khususnya setelah era sistem nilai tukar fleksibel. Pengendalian moneter dalam kerangka inflation targeting dapat dilakukan dengan menggunakan sukubunga PUAB overnight sebagai kandidat utama sasaran operasionaldan MCIsebagaisasaran antara, sementara underlying inflation sebagai sasaran akhir tunggal. Sementara penggunaan MCIsebagai sasaran antara tidak dilakukan secara kaku (policy rules)tetapi dimungkinkan terjadinya discretionary policy sepanjang shock terhadap inflasi dan nilai tukar berasal dari supply shock dan bersifat sementara. Disamping itu, masih kuatnya hubungan langsung antara monetary aggregates dengan inflasi maka pengalihan kebijakan moneter dari quantity targeting ke price targeting bukan merupakan substitusi penuh. Monetary aggregates masih tetap digunakan sebagai variabel indikator untuk mendeteksi tekanan terhadap inflasi. *) Wijoyo Santoso : Kepala Bagian Studi Ekonomi Makro, DKM \u2013 BI Iskandar : Peneliti Ekonomi Yunior Bagian Analisis dan Perencanaan Kebijakan DKM-BI. Email :
[email protected] Penulis mengucapkan terimakasih kepada M. Firdaus Muttaqin, asisten peneliti ekonomi di bagian APK Direktorat Riset Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Moneter Bank Indonesia atas bantuan riset khususnya time series analysis
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2
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
I. Pendahuluan
B
eralihnya sistem nilai tukar Ru piah d a ri sistem m e ngam b ang terkend a li m e nja sistem yang m e ngam b ang penuh m e m b erikan beberapa im p likasi terhada pengendalian m o neter di Indonesia. Secara teori, dalam sistem nilai tukar
of Payment (BO P) selalu
d a lam ekuilibrium .
Dengan dem ikian, kebijakan m o neter dalam sistem nilai tukar Ru piah yang fleksib
O leh karena suku bunga tam p ak m e m e gang peranan vital dalam pengendalian
U n tuk m encapai sasaran inflasi dengan baik, m a ka perlu dicari sasaran antara y
Index (M C I). P e rlu
tid a knya d igu n akan sasaran antara tergantu n g p a d a keeratan hu b u n gan antara su k u bu n ga jangka p end ek d engan inflasi. A p abila su k u bu n ga jangka p end ek d
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang Flek 3 sibel
Tr an sm isi p eru b ah a n n ilai tu k ar Rup iah ke in flasi d a p a t m elalu i d ua salu r an . Pertam
Pem b ahasan pengendalian m o neter dalam sistem nilai tukar fleksibel diatur sebaga
II. Landasan Teori 2.1. Kebijakan Moneter dalam Sistem Nilai Tukar Tetap
Da la m sistem n ila i tu ka r teta p k ebija ka n m on eter k ura n g efektif k aren a n era ca tra n
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4
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
Selain itu, elastisitas suku bunga dalam negeri yang cukup tinggi terhadap alira
D a lam sistem nilai tukar tetap, kebijakan m o neter tidak efektif baik dalam sit perfect capital mobility m a u p u n d a lam perfect capital immobility . Seb a g a i ilu s trasi, d a lam sistem n ilai tu k ar teta p , d a m p ak d a ri ek sp a n si m on eter d a p a t d ilih a t d a ri d u a situ a si seb a ga i b erik a. Situasi Perfect Capital Immobility
Dalam situasi demikian, kebijakan moneter tidak efektif karena tidak dapat
Grafik 2.1 Kebijakan Moneter dalam Situasi Perfect Capital Immobility
r
BP
LM LM 1
ro
Eo
r1
E1
IS
Yo
Y1
Y
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang Flek 5 sibel
kem u ngkinan m a sih efektif apabila elastisitas suku bunga terhadap investasi lebih be dari pada rasio marginal prospensity to impor (M P I). b. Situasi Perfect Capital M obility
Da lam situasi dem ikian, kebijakan m o neter yang ekspansif akan m enurunkan suku
Grafik 2.2 Kebijakan Moneter dalam Situasi Perfect Capital Mobility
r M
I
ro
Eo
LM 1
BP
r1
E1
L
S
Yo
Y1
Y
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6
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
Kebijakan fiskal d a lam sistem nilai tu k ar tetap d a n d a lam perfect capital mobility justru
2.2. Kebijakan Moneter dalam Nilai Tukar Fleksibel
Model Fleming-Mundell dapat dipakai untuk memberikan landasan teori
D ala m sistem n ila i tu k a r y a n g flek sib el, overall BO P sela lu a da d a la m p osisi ek uilib r iu
a. A pabila overall BO P m engalam i surplus, nilai tukar Rupiah akan m engalam i apresiasi
b. Sebalikn y a d efisit overall BO P akan m en d oron g n ilai tu k ar Ru p iah m en g alam i d ep r
D a lam m o del ini, neraca transaksi berjalan m em egang peranan penting sebaga
Selain itu , m od el Flem min g -M un d ell ju g a m en g an g gap bah w a gerakan kap ital h
interest parity
yang sudah m e m p erhitungkan ekspektasi depresiasi dan prem i risiko.
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang Flek 7 sibel
M e kanism e pengaruh suku bunga dalam m e njaga keseim b angan overall BOP dapat d ijelaskan sebagai berikut. a. Apresiasi nilai tukar Rupiah akan m enyebabkan neraca transaksi berjalan m em b uruk
b. D ep r esiasi n ilai tu k ar Rup iah ak a n m em perb a ik i p osisi n eraca tran sak si b erjalan seh
Im plikasi bagi kebijakan m o neter dari m o del ini adalah bahw a sem a kin sem purna
a. Keb ijak a n m on eter y a n g k on trak tif ak a n m en d o r on g su k u b u n g a d a lam n eg eri m en in
b. Tr an sm isi k e tin g k a t h a rg a d o m estik d a p a t d ijelask a n m elalu i d u a salu r an seb a g a i b erik u t. • A p resiasi nilai tukar Ru piah pada saat yang sam a akan m e nurunkan biaya produksi perusahaan sehingga akan m e nggeser kurva penaw a ran agregate ke kanan baw sehingga harga dalam negeri m e nurun. • Ke naikan suku bunga akan m e ngurangi perm intaan uang dari m a syarakat sehingg kurve perm intaan agregat bergeser ke kiri atas dan m e nyebabkan harga-harga da n e geri sem a kin m e n u ru n .
c. Kebijakan m o neter yang ekspansif akan m endorong m enurunnya suku bunga dan nil
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8
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
• P e n u ru n an su k u b u n g a ak a n m en a m b ah p e rm in t aan u a n g m a sy a rak a t seh in g g
perm intaan agregat bergeser ke kanan baw a h dan m e nyebabkan harga-harga d n e geri sem a kin m e n in g kat. • Ke n a ikan h a rga-h a rga d a lam n e geri akan m e m a cu p a ra bu r u h u n tu k m e n a ikkan nom inalnya sehingga akan m e nam b ah biaya produksi dan sem a kin m e ningkatk harga-harga. e. Seca ra g ra fis m a n a jem en m on eter d a la m sistem n ila i tu k a r y a n g flek sib el d a p a t d iter a n g k a sebagai beriku t . Ekspansi moneter dalam kondisi perfect capital mobility.
i. Ekspansi m o neter akan m e nurunkan suku bunga dan m e m b eri tekanan depresiasi
ii. M eningkatnya ekspansi m o neter akan m e ningkatkan perm intaan dom e stik dan ha
iii. D ep r esiasi y an g ter jadi a kibat eksp an si m on eter ju ga a kan m em ber ikan d oron gan k
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang Flek 9 sibel
Grafik 2.3. Kebijakan Moneter dalam Nilai Tukar Flek
r
LM 1
LM4 LM3
r*
LM2
BP
IS2
IS1 IS4 IS3
y1 y4 y3
y2
y
SS2
P
SS1 P1 P2 P1 DD2 DD1 y1 y4 y3
y2
y
f.. Sem a kin sem purna m o bilitas kapital, kebijakan fiskal sem a kin tidak efektif karena
g. N am un d em ikian , m od el in i tid ak m em a su kkan u n su r eksp ektasi. Ek sp ektasi y an g bersi
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10
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
• M a rshall-Lerner kondisi dipenuhi yakni elastisitas harga dari penaw a ran ekspor
perm intaan im p or harus lebih dari satu.
III. Kebijakan Moneter dengan Inflation Targeting. 3.1. Pengertian dan Latar Belakang
D a lam beberap a tah u n terakh ir, terd a p a t kecen d eru n gan seju m lah ban k -ban k
targeting. Inflation targeting
adalah strategi kebijakan m o neter yang bersifat forward looking dengan m em fokuskan secara langsung pada kestabilan harga atau inflasi yang renda
aggregat es ),
sehingga mempersulit dalam pencapaiaan sasaran akhir. Globalisasi perekonom ian dunia, inovasi produk-produk keuangan, sekuritisasi aset serta decouplin
Pertim b angan lainnya ad a lah karena terd a patnya kesulitan d a lam m encapai sasar
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang1Flek 1 sibel
m a kro lainnya, sep erti m engganggu keseim b angan neraca p em b ayaran d a n m em p erlem
Director
IM F, m e nyatakan bahw a pengendalian inflasi perlu m e njadi sasaran utam a kebijakan m o neter bank sentral m a napun di dunia. H a l ini didasarkan pada pertim b angan
Sem en t ara Bern a n k e d a n M ish k in (1997) d a n M a sson (1998) m en g em u k a k a n b eb erap
a. Penetapan inflasi sebagai sasaran tunggal dapat digunakan sebagai nom inal anchor
b. A d an y a su a tu p r ep o sisi d a lam teori m a kroekon o m i yan g m e n g em u kakan bah w a in flasi ya n g ren d a h d a p a t m en d or on g p ertu m bu h a n ek on om i d a n efisien si d a la m ja n gk a p a n jan g.
c. U a ng bersifat netral dalam jangka m e nengah dan panjang sehingga peningkatan jum uang beredar hanya m e m p engaruhi tingkat harga, bukan output dan kesem p atan k d . M a halnya biaya inflasi yang tinggi, khususnya dalam kaitan dengan alokasi sum daya atau pertum b uhan ekonom i dalam jangka panjang atau keduanya.
e. Pengaruh kebijakan m o neter terhadap inflasi m e m e rlukan lag yang sulit diprediksi dan bervariasi pengaruhnya.
Pengalam a n beberapa negara, seperti Selandia Baru, C a nada, Spanyol, Sw edia da
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12
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
Grafik 4 Perkembangan Inflasi di Negara Inflation Targeting
11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
Tahun 1988 s/d 1997
Inggris (Okt-92) Swedia (Jan-93) Australia (Apr-93) New Zealand (Mar-90) Kanada (Feb-91) 1988 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 Angka dlm kurung = Inflation targeting mulai diterapkan
97
Grafik 5. Pertumbuhan GDP di Negara Inflation Targeting Tahun 1988 s/d 1997
10.0 9.0
Inggris (Okt-92)
8.0 7.0 6.0
Swedia (Jan-93)
5.0
Australia (Apr-93)
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
Kanada (Feb-91) New Zealand (Mar-90) 1988
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang1Flek 3 sibel
pencapaian inflasi dan fleksibilitas dari pencapaian target dalam hal terjadi shock dalam ekonom i (D e belle, 1997 d an D e belle d an Lim , 1998). Pertam a , P en en tu a n in flasi y a n g d ig u n a k a n h a ru s m en jad i k om itm en n a sion al k a re
inflation
dikarenakan inflasi yang dalam pengendalian bank sentral hanya yang berasal dari sisi demand, sem entara yang berasal dari sisi supply m erupakan diluar
Kedua, Besarnya inflasi yang ditargetkan hendaknya disesuaikan dengan potensi
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14
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
d a lam p en cip t aan ek on om i y a n g leb ih stab il d a lam ran g k a m en dor on g p ertu mb
• Proyeksi Inflasi
Tidak seperti target besaran m o neter atau nilai tukar yang m elihat perkem b angan
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang1Flek 5 sibel
average)
dari perubahan suku bunga dan nilai tukar relatif terhadap periode yang ditentukan (base periode). Bobot dari suku bunga dan nilai tukar m e ncerm inkan
D a sar p em ik iran M CI ad a lah seb a g a i b erik u t : N ilai tu k ar m em p en g aru h i p erm in
Pelopor pertam a penggunaan MC I adalah Ka nada kem udian diikuti oleh Selandia
trade-weighted G -10 bilateral (E). Ke dua variabel tersebut dihitung berdasarkan
relatif dari waktu dasarnya (base period ). Bobot suku bunga dan nilai tukar
nilai
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16
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
d ihitung M C I d e ngan m e nggunakan rum u s sebagai berikut : dim a na : t
MCIt =θR (R t −R 0 ) +θe (et −e0 ) : indeks w a ktu, dengan t=0 sebagai w a ktu dasar
θR
: bobot su k u bu n ga
θe
: bobot nilai tukar
variabel dengan huruf kecil dinyatakan dalam bentuk logaritm a . • Kerangka Kebijakan Moneter
Secara u m u m k eran g k a k eb ijak a n m o n eter n eg a ra-n eg a ra y a n g m en erap k an in flatio targeting d a p a t d igam b arkan sebagai beriku t .
Pengendalian Moneter dalam Kerangka Inflation Targeting
OMO Settlement Cash Discou n t Rate
Inter Bank Cash rate
Lon ger Interest rate
GDP
Output Gap
Inflation
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang1Flek 7 sibel
ii. Prasyarat Penerapan Inflation Targeting
M e nurut D e belle dan Lim (1998) serta M a sson (1998), untuk m e laksanakan inflation targeting sebagai strategi kebijakan m o neter terdapat dua prasyarat utam a yang harus dipenuhi. Pertam a , Independensi bank sentral dalam m e laksanakan kebijakan m o ne Ked u a, M e n g h in d ark a n p e n g g u n a an n o m in a l an ch o r lain n y a b ersam a an d en g an p e n erap a n inflafion targeting. • Independensi Bank Sentral
Persyaratan utam a untuk m e laksanakan kerangka kebijakan m o neter dengan
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18
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
variabel nominal lainnya seperti inflasi. Hal tersebut dapat terjadi karena
3.2. Pengalaman Beberapa Negara yang Menggunakan Manajemen Moneter dengan Inflation Targeting a. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)
Selan dia Ba ru m en g g u n a k a n in flasi seb a g a i sasaran tu n g g al sejak tah u n 1985, d
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang1Flek 9 sibel
b. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
Sem a kin m e lem a hnya hubungan antara besaran m o neter dengan sasaran akhir
underlying inflation dengan target sebesar 2- 3% per tahun.
D a lam pengendalian m o neter, RBA m e nggunakan suku bunga overnight fund (cash rates) seb a g a i sa s a r a n o p era s io n a l. Se ja k Ja n u a ri 1990 RBA m e n g u m u m k a n ta r g e t su
d a n State Government securities. Peru b ah a n cash rate aka n m em p en g aru h i su k u bun g a lain n ya
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20
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
p a d a ak h ir tah un 1992, 2,5% sam pai d en g an p erten g ah a n tah un 1994 d a n 2% sam pai d
Strategi kebijakan tersebut bersifat forward looking sehubungan dengan terdapatny
D a lam m elaksanakan kebijakan m o neter digunakan M C I sebagai operasional tar
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang2Flek 1 sibel
m en jad i m a ksim a l sebesar 2%. O leh karen a in flation targetin g m eru p akan kebijakan forward looking, m a ka Bank of England m e m inta independensi dalam m e m b uat assesment inflasi ke depan dalam laporan inflasi kuartalan sejak Februari 1993. D a lam m elaksan a kan kebijakan m o n eter Ba n k of En g lan d m en g gu n akan su k u bu n
e. The Riksbank of Sw eden (ROS)
Tekanan-tekanan depresiasi yang cukup besar yang dihadapi Sw edish krona pada
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22
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
m inggu sebagai instru m en u t am a op erasional, sed a ngkan sebelu m nya m enggu nakan su
IV. Evaluasi Manajemen Moneter Indonesia 4.1. Manajemen Moneter Sebelum Krisis
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang2Flek 3 sibel
ii. Pelaksanaan Kebijakan M oneter
Sem entara itu, penggunaan besaran-besaran m o neter (monetary aggregates) dalam
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24
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
Velocity of M1 and M2 M1
M2
10.0
9.5 9.0 8.5
Vm2
VM1
2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang2Flek 5 sibel
D a lam m a sa krisis pengendalian m o neter m enggunakan level base money (BM ), bukan
d i m a na N D A = BM - NIR. Besarnya pem b erian BLBI akibat krisis kepercayaan terhadap perbankan Domestic A ssets (N D A ), N et International Reserves (N IR), d a n liquidity support
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26
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
bulan A p ril 1998. A r tinya, penurunan BM sekarang akan m enurunkan inflasi pad
2. H ubu n gan an t ara p eru b ah a n BM d en g an p eru b ah a n n ilai tu k ar Rup iah (ked uan
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang2Flek 7 sibel
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28
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang2Flek 9 sibel
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30
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
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Pengendalian Moneter Dalam Sistem N ilai Tuk ar yang3Flek 1 sibel
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nilai m enggunakan tukar diperoleh riil pada perhitungan dengan tahunmtersebut engalikan sebagai cukup berikut. indeks rendah kurs M C Idan Udapat S$stabil. terhadap dihitung D engan rupiah secara m edikalikan nggunakan nom inaldeng mtah riil. Dse 1994 arasio lam ba gperhitungan aantara i ta h u nC dP aIsadalam selanjutnya r M CI In negeri d o n eakan sdengan ia d a digunakan p aC t dPiIsu Asmuerika M n se C Ipriil eSerikat. r tiuntuk ta m p a mkedngetahui ala m g ra fkond ik d m o neter secara riil terlepas dari pengaruh fluktuasi harga.
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mo cu dkln bu A R iu pe u pe lril piah hp e an ter m rlih aku 1998 A edn g dan aarutk lam at ru sda tu m u a nn sk n e d1997, e tu y nurunnya kecen eran ankM gm ag Cne k M I. dm aeru C Se inflation beInerikan ja laju m n inkgan ugta lai k inflasi. targeting h am berad tn ugam neyn 1994 agM bPenurunan ua aran telah C adtn k I,iebaw kybh terh a m ija unesak im u lai h aasn e suku 100 dntu n m ayup ao khkarena se kon n ar ibunga e pjte a R ek d u rsy rd isi pkiieb a tingginya ah sejak m e ratan rla ,b oM a nk le C ibulan u ter m u Ikm neatu n yan tingkat n ugn lai kSeptem aydlg aa m iterjad lak P meain dkp su ean en p tbnJa jrer ia g u .esia ke D n ka dem d itid 1990. yang n peningkatan In ilai d iakian, on ktu dm eik tand sia. ear M nuC riil Pa rIe u isecara dapat ru d R neu kan m ngan pu iah sdipakai M berarti. an .m C Ptu Ien secara ningkatnya ju a ru sebagai N nn aBan m aberarti. nusu knIn M k kem approximate u dCon bIuu dendian asia gnam y sejak m intrmediate e aningkatnya negnurun jelas b u lan utajam target n Stu esuku pktdalam em pada m ebunga b ner cbulan ap m 1998 a edikanism edposito M asam neimdan p eeai serta m Juni edlih e pengendalian kestabilan m eln bu 1998 an g akibat uDaetn rupiah sem y am kerusuhan b ner iolai dapat neter 1997 tu kar diartikan di da Rsosial. m nu teru paina ahssebagai inflasi riil. m eK lem onsebagai a d pencapaian h isi n ya d em nsasaran iilai k ian tu sasaran k bar erlan akhir. Rutunggal p gisu ahnpgahdinflasi in ag pg ea riod b muelan engingat yan Jug n sam i199 kestabilan MC I terus n im laiengalam tu k ar rui p penurunan iah ad a lahsam resuplai tan mtencapai d a ri in ftitik lasi yan terendah g ren dpada ah . Dbulan en ganJuni ter fo 1998. ku
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transm dapat dari suatu kebijakan negara. dipenuhi isi kebijakan Pada mdengan o neter. um m ou neter Prinsip m diberlakukannya n ya, me pada penyusunan laluisaat sukupertam bunga UA nP dang-undang BN cukup a yang kali m efektif meenerapkan nghindarkan tersebut dalam pengendalian inflation di atas. penggunaan targeting Pem binfla eria , independensi p karakteristik sebagai em biaysasaran aa n bu inflasi diberikan dakhir. get ddi efi Dnegara-negara saittidak lam yanpengendalian gterbatas berasal tersebut da pada ri d maolindependensi aneter m relatif n eg dengan errendah--kecuali i kh u sdari inflation u sn yaspek a Btargeting an kIsrael. kelem In dtersebut onb eSebagai agaan sia m e t juga p negara-negara digunakan r asyindependen a rat ysuku a n g te berkem bunga ldari ah d iaspek PU pbeang n AuBhovernight instrum lainnya, i. Selamsebagai a elaju n indan i binflasi u dtujuan sasaran get di d eIndonesia fisit kebijakan operasional. p em erin relatif mo taneter. Transm h se tinggi lalPem uisi ddan ikebijakan bbierian ay banyak ai d e sta independen p d m in o pneter jeanmgaaru nini luhadiaw irm oleh neem gaeb li kre erikan dengan in pa em ik a erndasar ipengendalian n htaarg h ,a hukum sp eh aidnagkgyang easuku lom h al kuat p te bunga ok rse m terhadap bauPUAB kt adnaapnam .tN konsistensi m ea lalui em ng uh npengendalian id ne dn argkelem kan anpte erk kbaagaan enm anb
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Bunga harga Reserve perubahan keseim b angan arah likuid kebijakan itas tersebut, m o neter, antara sehingga lain Jangka d bank-bank a pat berupa akan intervensi m erespon rupiah dengan overnight m erubah baik relatif Bank Panjang melalui yang bersifat suku bunga berjangka ekspansi m pendek. a upun Selanjutnya kontraksi. Sem perubahan entara dengan suku bunga segeratersebut dijualnya akan obligasi Agregat p eem m meprin entgaaru h d ihpiapse arb r sa en ku k an n deurn, tu Baknm k In eru dobnah essu iaDemand d ka upbautnm ge anygagnugnbaekrjan an sg ukra atwba ek rh tuarg leb aiphepm ae nrin j terseb P a d a tah u t aseb p beriku a g a i salah t n y a ppeiran ru btah i maonnsu eter k u bu d a lam n ga m akan en gm en ed malik penagnaru likh u iid pietas rilaku b a nkon k -b asn uk m. si d
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m em agregat terhadap njalankan pengaruhi tetapi pengendalian fungsi juga suku akan BI bunga sebagai inflasi m em yang psebagai engaruhi lender lebih of the panjang sasaran nilai last resort tukar dan akhir. akibat rupiah. nilai D emissmatch tukar. presiasi D engan Kopend nilai ndisi asum tukar aini naan. sim tidak rupiah em Sehingg bterdap erikan dap tujuan p m indikasi eeru ndorong bah utam bekerjanya a n ypeningkatan aanya n g madalah enmoenkanism jol untuk harga-harga fak t or-fak emMeu nstabilkan ndell-Flem t or diddalam i d a lam suku inegeri ng ne teori bunga g eri, mdalam eplalui e perbankan n insistem 2 g kjalur. a tannilai dan Pertam su k u m tukar beunjadi anm gfleksi ae lalu m refer asetadikan ken Sehubungan i d a lam h a rga-h dengan negeri a rga m hal ebaran njad tersebut, i lebih g im pm M oreC(imported narik I dapat d iinflation) band digunakan ingkan . Kedotoritas u daengan m elalu m aset oi neter expenditure lu a rsebagai negeri switching sehin pro m endorong karena sasaran harga antara aliran relatif kebijakan m obarang-barang dal. Peningkatan m o neter. Pengalam imarus p or lebih m oadal nm pada m a hal a suk mdibandingkan a sa m esistem ndorong nilai apresiasi dengan tukar harga mterhada engam ba
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kebijakan yang sudah adalah diskonto inflasi, m suku ma dapat oka neter ada bunga pengendalian dijadikan dan yang U overnight nover dang-undang sebagai m reactive. yang o neter dalam sasaran dalam N Selain o 23 haltahun operasional sistem itu, ini diw m1999 enilai ngingat a kili tentang tukar dalam oleh m fleksibel aPU sih m Bank A ebesarnya B m overnight bIndonesia, erikan dapatpenggunaan .dilakukan signal Suku inflasi yang u am yang bunga kuat ne glalu k ake relevan rtal ini i pasar sem d dapat aalam cam dengan m em tran ngenai aproximate emsbak kebijakan erikan sperubahan i ek intermediate otransm n om mioIn neter arah target idsi on yang esia, kebijakan adalah yaitu kuat sep Munderlying C eterhadap rti Im riil. o terlih neter. H ainflation sil asuku tH kem u aatn lp .tersebut bunga iris ya m p eelainnya nnge juga aru ranh gdilaku kan bas seper e terhadap SBI, deposito, Federal bahw aM inflasi RCeIserve m epada m dan iBank liki kredit. mhubungan aA saSkrisis, dan A g ar pada yang m suku a ka pelaksanaannya sangat bunga monetary dovernight eaggregates kat d engan cukup tersebut m asasaran sih efektif diperlukan lebih akhir dalam contrinflasi. olsebagai m labl eem , Bank bNerikan am u indikator Indonesia arah penggunaan kebijakan dalam me piranti lakukan mm elihat o neter initekanan pengendalian jangan dan m dijadikan terhadap estabilkan keseim rules inflasi. suku tetapi b angan Indikator bunga. dim likuiditas ungkinkan yang tidak di pasar discr kalah etiuang on m pentingnya e lalui m elalui untuk pengendalian penetapan m elihat band tekanan excess dan m reserve inflasi elihat . antara Bank sifat Indonesia shock lain adalah yangdapat terjadi Leading mpada e nggunakan Indikator nilai tukar Inflasi Intervensi dan(LII), inflasi. Leading rupiah Policy Indikator Ekonom i (LIE) dan hasil-hasil survey ekonom i dan konsum en. Keseluruhan ind ikator ini d iperlukan untuk m enetapkan kebijakan m o neter yang akan d item p uh d a lam m engendalikan inflasi sebagai sasaran akhir.
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penerapan inflation targeting di beberapa negara yang sudah m enerapkannya. Un tuk m em persiap k an in i, Ba n k In don esia p erlu m em perd a lam d a n m em perk a y a m o d el-m p r oy ek si in flasi d a n p erh itu n g a n ou tp u t g a p . U n tu k m em b an tu p en g en d alian su k u b d a lam keran gk a kebijak an m on eter inflation targeting, Pem erin tah p erlu seg er a m en erb su r at berh a rga ba ik ya n g berjan g ka p en dek m a u pu n ya n g berjan g ka p a n jan g sep erti y d iterapkan d i negara Jepang, m isalnya. Salah satu alternatif ad a lah penggunaan obliga pem erintah sebagai instrum en m o neter yang saat ini telah di rintis.
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Keobijakan M Indonesia, neter: Suatu M 1971-1996", o neter kemdi u Indonesia" ngkinan W o rking penerapannya", Paper, Buletin De Ekonom partm Meaint M kalah Econom o neter SESPIBI-A dan ics,Perbankan, ThenU gkatan n iversity Vol. XII,of 1, Jakarta, M N o ichigan, m o r 1, NBank o1998. vem Indonesia, b er 1996. Jakarta Juli 1998.
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tidaksaling tertentu yang m edengan m pberkaitan. unyai mhubungan enggunakan H ubungan satu pendekatan kausalitas sam a dengan ekonom dapat lainnya dibagi etrik atau yang ataswh 3m ikategori, teencakup noise serihubungan juga es, sedangkan hubunga tim b al balik kausalitas adalah jumsatu lah dan lag. arah, fungsi-fungsi O lhubungan eh karena yang kausalitas itu sebelum m u nculdua dari m earah lakukan analisis dan hubungan uji spektrum hubungan ,tim khususnya kausalitas b al balik. hubunga Prinsip terseb penuh k seluruh erja dantar a ri data Grspektrum aharus n ger-K bersifat audan salita hubungan stasioner. s test d idpartial aJika sar kvariabel aantar n atasspektrum vector yangautor akan (Granger, egrdiuji essionbersifat seb1969). ag aim tidak Dari an a stasio d iu pandangan sebagai m a ka standar beriku ekonom VA t :R m eo trik, del ide akan utam missapdari ecified kausalitas jika digunakan adalahuji sebagai kausalitas berikut. (G r anger, Pertam1988 a , jik ma H elmtersebut pen g arudapat h i Y, b e terjadi rarti inkarena for m a si jika m asuatu sa laludata X d abersifat p a t m emnon b anstasioner t u d a lam m meam kapred varian ik s a Deengan m n in g kkata a t seja lain, la ndd engan en g a n mw ea nam k tub , seh ah din ag tagm a vaasa ria lalu n a kXake n tid regresi a k terh Yd inegngan g a jikdaatid ta Y a kmaadsa ab ma ktu w ka dapat dan pada m eningkatkan saat tersebut kekuatan tidak terdapat penjelasnilai (explanatory tengah power (m )edari an) dalam regresi. jangka Kedua, panjan data mia d msa a na lald uata Y tid sera ies k kem d a p abtali. m em ban tu d a lam m em pred iksika n X, ka ren a jika X d a p a t m em d a lam m em pred iksikan Y d a n Y d a pat m em b antu m em pred iksikan X, m a ka kem ungkina besar terdapat variabel lain, katakan Z , yang m em p engaruhi X dan Y (G r anger, 196
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kausalitas keduanya d ipergunakan jum lbah tam ahm k terjadi Granger an a ksim n dialai ri m um variabel X adengan ka seb lags dikatakan aditetapkan. g aXm id independent eanggunakan n Yterdapat , d im Ca variable ari naoptimum hubungan pendekatan tiddaakriad lags reg a prosed dengan rtim esi nilai bdal uuafinal balik m rduntuk e im lihat e(prediction feedback n sm nilai ioennentukan alpaling relationship yerror a n gdari bkecil ejangka rg ) un antara w autoregresi. auntuk (m k tiunlag iXdan mm u. Sebag e mngontol Yatau )Prosedur FPE a.iterdapat ak hasil ibatn dari Yy,uji a, hubungan seperti setiap kausalitas ditunjukkan v akausalitas riabel H siao-G d ip edalam dua rk r anger enarah an autoregresi ktersebut an (bidirectional u n tu kadalah mdie causality m baw p en sebagai ag )hantara aru ini.h iberik vX a ria d a n dengan lain Y. distribusi jum lah lag yang sam a . D engan tanpa pem b atasan berarti jum lah param eter akan bertam b ah sebesar kuadrat dari jum lah variabel dan akan m engurangi derajad kebebasan (degree of freedoms) secara cepat.
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(adalah fitting butir ofjum the 2 lebih regression lah kuadrad kecil ), dari sehingga residual FPE pada belum dari butir persam m e nunjukkan 5 m a ka an dapat yang kekuatan tidak disimdiretriksi, pulkan controllX variable m r adalah emdalam pengaruhi jum lah m eSem variabel m pengaruhi e ntara yang diretriksi, m odependent del yang Tvariable optim jum lah .a Olobservasi lyang eh karena digunakan dan itu, kuntuk adalah untuk m ejum m ndukung em lah p rediksikan param hasil eter tersebut Yt estim adalah a si d digunakan regresi m enggunakan yang F-test tid a k dengan optim d iretriksi. u m elag nggunakan Y dan X. regresi dengan optim a l lags dari m a sing-m variabel. Form u la F-test atau W a ld test yang digunakan adalah sebagai berikut :
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dihindari. kisaran tersebut perubahan Sebagaiberpengaruh otoritas sistem nilai m o neter, pada tukaryang prilaku (exchange perlu nilai rate dilakukan tukar arrangement Rupiah adalah ). Sebagaimana terhadap upaya untuk valuta kita m easing, redam khususnya g ejolak nk ila etah im tuaku ta ai,ruang sejak ya n gm tah beitra rle u nbdagang 1978 ih an asistem ga utam r tidnaaiklai Indonesia. mtu em kb arah Inad ySem o an ka esia n a kin sta be bfleksibel rg ilita erak s p esem re suatu ko an ko in nilai mflek iantuka s. ib U akan m endsem uku a nkin g u psulit aya tersebu m em p rediksi t otoritas pergerakan m o neter pnilai erlu m tukar. engestim H a l ini a sidim nilaiungkinkan tu k ar keseim karena b anga p ergerakan dengan baik dalam n ilai tuarti k arsesuai yan g berd dengan a sarkan faktor-faktor keku a tan fundam p erm e inntal t aan perekonom d a n p en a w ian a ran yang v ajuga lu ta a diepasar m ncakup juga unsur dipengaruhi ekspektasi oleh pasar. perubahan H a l ini mekspektasi enjadi penting pasar karena yangapabila pem b entukannya suatu negara tergantu m em p ertah n gapnakdan a berbagai n ilai tu k arvariabel riiln y a pekonom ad a tin gikm a tayuapnugn“tid non-ekonom a k tep at” ak i. a n m em berik a n sig yang keliru kepada pelaku ekonom i yang pada akhirnya m e m p erbesar kem u ngkinan m u ncu lnya ketid a kstabilan ekonom i.
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d a nyang teru sebelum yaitu kError-Correction dengan ur d sesu neya n gpendekatan telah aan i dbea M ngan digunakan ik odel , mdengan fu aB kn eh adoavi at o m dalam or periode reitas alntal Exch m penelitian pang oestim enrekonom e e ter Rate aak si (BEER bulanan a dinian, Bank d a) yang p sehingga adari tIndonesia, mm eSeptem m e rupakan pselanju red iantara b ks er perluasan i tp1992 nya eru lain d bsam a ah pdengan adari p tnai dek ike 2 pe m d aon sa nd d besar geraelte n katan NA rAh g misalignment Ta uRd sEX Purchasing tu apsn .1998. B ila EER i,tuPower Pk m ean erm ese n Parity btha uin n ag n g (PPP u g pna erio k pe ), ete M la deracro kk osa a bita serv n Balance an an an si mta (Fundamental in arniad ap je im em rila ae kn skun Equilibrium udila n ka iila n tuiatu kgaakrExchange radm rariil epnacteafle k ek b utif ih p pp ru e dengan sejak kisaran variabel-variabel intervensi nilai ekonom tukari yang m ulairelevan diperlebar dengan samm p ai em akhirnya pertim bkisaran angkantersebut unsur-unsur ekonom d ihap u ski ayang n p addaabpat u lanmAegm u sptengaruhi u s 1997 seekspektasi rta m encakupasar. p p u la p eriod e setelah nilai tu kar m en
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nilai jan g ktukar a p ensesuai d ek y a n dengan g d ilaku perekonom ka n terh a dia an pn yang ilai tu mkear ngalam n ega ra-n i perubahan ega ra Ero seiring p a sejak dengan p eriod e reg nilai tukar perkem b angan tetap ekonom Bretton iW yang o odspesat sam p(sebelum ai denganperiode tahun tahun krisis1997 juli 1997). m engungkapkan Perubahanbahw sistem a perilaku nilai tukar nilai initukar sangat riil berpengaruh adalah regimed pada epend perilaku ent ,4 yaitu nilai tergantung tukar rupiah, padakhususnya pada sistem setelah nilai tukar yang sistem nilaiberlaku. tukar beralih Dengan kepada dem ikian sistem , thenilai nonnetrality tukar baik hypotesis m eof ngam exchange b ang rate terkendali arrangement m a upun sem m enagkin amkuat. b an g Studi-studi beba s. tersebut m em b uktikan bahw a volatilitas nilai tukar riil dalam regim nilai tukar tetap. H a sil studi di atas bertentangan dengan pendapat Friedm a n (1953) dan Sohm en (1961) yang m enyatakan bahw a dalam regim nilai tukar m engam b ang nilai tu k ar riil akan lebih stabil karena fleksibilitas nilai tu k ar nom inal akan m eng-offset d a m p dari perbedaan laju inflasi terhadap daya saing internasional suatu negara. Bagaim a na dengan perilaku nilai tukar riil Ru piah?
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nilai tukar di pasar sangat tidak berarti. G r afik 1a dan 1b serta tabel 1 m e nunjukkan ba volatilitas nilai tukar nom inal di pasar m a kin m eningkat sejalan dengan dilebarkanny
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dihapuskan pada tanggal 14 A g ustus 1997. Dem ikian pula halnya dengan pergerakan nilai tukar riil. D a lam periode sam pai dengan Septem b er 1992, standar deviasi persentase perubahan bulanan nilai tukar riil adalah sebesar 0,38, sedangkan periode O k tober 1992 – Ju li 1997 sebesar 0,60. Sejalan d engan hal tersebu t volatilitas nilai tu k ar riil Rup iah terha US dollar juga m e nunjukkan kecenderungan m e ningkat pada saat kisaran intervensi d ip erlebar secara signifikan. Sem entara itu , p eriod e p a d a saat free floating d iterap k an terja bersam a an dengan periode krisis nilai tukar, sehingga volatilitas nilai tukar riil m eningka pesat dari sekitar 20% hingga m a ksim u n m encapai 80%.6
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In d onaesia keku beberap sistem tan nilai ap nda eatukar gara sar lamdm a yan yang lam enggp terken ulebih e bnentu ah nfleksibel a ila krisis aintunilai k am rlebih ne tu ynakgar, m urentan b em ah n jasistem ka d i leb terhadap p erilaku ihnflek ilai stu pterjadinya ib aksar earn l am dyae alnjad amhkrisis eunnijlebih ad tu kim lebih masu eta nlg it uan fle u diprediksi (kecuali atau terkurasnya bahkan Msecara a laysia). cadangan m enjadi langsung. solusi devisa Nterbaik yang ilai tukar semakin untuk di pasar menipis m engatasi tidakakibat sem krisis? a ta kebutuhan m encermuntuk inkan kekuatan p eerm m m pin ertahankan t aan d a n p enilai n a wtukar a ran vm a lu a ta tauang asin gdom u n tu e stik k m eterhadap m en u h i underlying U S dolartransactions yang m a kin , mm elain e ros juga dipengaruhi akibat serangan spekulatif oleh faktor-faktor pad a period laineyang aw a lm krisis. em pengaruhi Sebaliknya, ekspektasi M a laysia ma msyarakat em b erlaku ya erat berkaitan kebijakan nilaidtukar engan tetap u nsudengan r ketid amkp em a stian. peg-kan Benilai rkaitan ringgit d engan terhadap hal tersebu terhadap t p erlu USd dolar ilak p en detingkat pada katan e3,8 konRoM m/eU tri SD u ndengan tu k m enmaanksud gka pm p eru nghilangkan bah an -p eruresiko bah annilai p erila tukar k u nbagi ilai tu para k ar yang berkaitan investor. Kebijakan d engan nilaiperubahan-perubahan tukar M a laysia ini m enyertai fund a mpem ental b erlakuan perekonom kontrol ian d adevisa n perubah sec ekspektasi selek tif y n gmdaitu syarakat ju k an uterhad n tu k maeplin perekonom d u n g i p erek ian on Ind omoinesia an d ohingga m estik d a ri pat v odlatilitas iperolehp estim a sar nilai tukar keseim b angan.
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terh Stu Pada dan sehuingga H daiodd ngkong a tanpa ilaku p aw maak lta hutang krisis an naik berjalan uterh a nturunnya g Aluar n saia ydda. aa (Juli negeri plam Ssistem istem tingkat 1997) azas Hin onpngkong iH ibunga a terb lai o sar ngkong tuubebas, kksecara ar m ti etelah nm bahkan egara-n sehingga iliki ekstrim mstruktur am m egara peundapat shock yang mpajak e dn adjustment isering A ah slim ia ayang nyan pseran ahan terjadi sederhana in g relatif t ern g aliran an dalam aterh l tid m ma dan a o C a uk dal d B pterke S a upn d krisis H o ngkong dari m tidak ekstern um rah negara am ta ,eserta ayang uang lum l yan App terjadi sguhkan yaitu ia eterjad nlain g elu Singapura kegiatan beberapa yang iadran a pm aptu edngalam bdisektor ildan kali tan ik ygaterm H gap no igkrisis ngkong ini. hiaa secara suk nCapital yhingga a dalam b(lihat efleksibel rju A dequacy m cadangan periode lam lahp14 oleh Ratio iran pkrisis ep devisa (CA rsen 1). erekon R) KA d e perbankan dua sa m ia ri oem tahun G ningkat negara D ian P (1996-1998 n ya. 1997-98. tajam ini Sebag mo H engkong dari H con mo pn unyai tU g oh kSo ,D gn dengan e karakteristik 67,6 gjolak sebm en sar iC liar aB ik18 Snya tu (Juni pryang eursen n m 1997) naysam m a , dp tin am ua ngbertahan e yaitu debt knjadi a t ratio bm uU ne nS grupakan yD adari ab 81,6 heabnkrisis eyrap m aperekonom h iliar aanm wy(Juli aak ta 3,7 t uuang 1997) lalu piean rsen tid yang Adan sa.ia Fu km m karena: terbuka neegncapai nsliusu mpp (small erv uh puncaknya perbankannya p erek on omsebesar ian njuga y a .7Uam SD a 98 t prudent m iliar.per Januari 1998. Do lar H o ngkong m ulai digoyang spekulasi terutam a pada sem e ster kedua 1998, hingga cadangan devisanya m e nurun m enjadi U SD 88,5 m iliar per N o vem b er 1998. N a m un sejak D esem b er 1998 cadangan d evisa cen d eru n g m en in g kat kem b ali.
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perekonom uangnya nilai Singapura b etukar ror ie secara suatu nita an. m si M e pnegara kredibel ncapai aedngingat a p atidak sa Usehingga S rD .pentingnya P77,0 sem em earin mta terhindar iliar tbergantung ahpengaruh (akhir h an yadari 1996) m epada nilai nkrisis gin dan tukar sistem term dalam va eta n bagi snilai iuang p periode astabilitas sa tukar yang r d okrisis m yang berat. eperekonom stik dianut md eN a nurun la ilai m ole m uangnya n b erb gbidang: m aara egnjad ate i selalu rpse e iU pendidikan, nbd Sue D tk dapat n71,7 aatm anum en dipertahankan kisa liar operum nnog(A m atikte dhir a ilte han, ah 1997), nb tuadalam kdan naynanam o kkesehatan ldeihtarget g uku nenp kaa uband kd aatanaakhir dasar n yang da fala km to 1998 secara m rstu -fa a syarakat. dktelah i-stu toberhati-hati r fud m ni e d uningkat a nm tueknm tdapat aelkem m , te p d ie m nilai pm erle tukar ielik njadi biaca r riil se dU asS nu keseim D gaai75,0 ndd ee nvm g bia angan. sa in liar y ka en bg u tu beh sa arn,.dBaannfa dn kito lari-fa tu ka torrhkaenle ym ad biakgeata an hu sei p oleerhtiMonetary sistem kAe yang sehat, good governance pad a perusahaan d a n pem erintahan, sektor riil yang kom p etiti d an efisien seh in gga p erekon om ian n ga tid ak vulnerableterh ad ap gan ggu an -gan ggu an ek
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values Sedangkan “internal” RER didefinisikan sebagai sebagai harga dari traded yang dibutuhkan kon m (P e PnPsg).udipetukarkan .h m Taeen silk knik m apengukuran u nyang dka eh seim tersed dsama, igu b annakan nilai ig a(ii) adni bern tidak tukar in d atern lam aada riil gai apl e d(R nd n a biaya e nEe gara ek R katan atau stransport tern seh PRaP iE n lPseca ER gsangat ga ) dan aktual. rmaesim m restriksi sed uunD lta ega rhana kin lam nrelatif ,d kperdagangan an e kaitan d ng ipm a en arh na tig ini, itu nilai a terdapa n p gan ersy tu R goods terhad apnegara. nontraded goods atau didefinisikan sebagai harga relatif dari and beberapa d yang m internasional, eengan nurut harus m PPPadalah alternatif itra dipenuhi, (iii) struktur definisi yang yaitu: mtidak e,nilai ekonom nyam ada tukar a kan restriksi i, teknologi riil nilai yaitu produk perdagangan, ek dan ster dalam perm nal R Enegeri iR ntaan tidak dan ada internal bila m ainseftip syarakat ditukarkan REexportable R.khusus “ External tidak dengan beru ” inportable in term of nontraded . Pengukuran PPP-Based Rw Ea Rjar. berdasarkan CPI R untuk p rEod R diukur u capital k goods lu a rsebagai inflow ne geri. dan nilai outflow tukar , goods dannom tingkat inal yang pengangguran disesuaikan yang dengan perbedaan Secara konseptual tingkat harg luar negeri dapat dibedakan terhadap antara dalam RER negeri. aktual dan Pengukuran keseim b angan external RERRjangka ER dapat pendek berupa (SRPPP-based ER) dan RER b erd a sark keseim b angan a n CR PE I,R the jangka Mundell-Flemming panjang (LR atau ER)aggregate . N ilai RE production R aktualcost dipengaruhi RER , m a u poleh u n the berbagai traded fak tor ya n g m un gkin bersifat transitory , ter m asu k fak tor speculativebubble, transitory movements pada kebijakan dan variabel eksogen. SRER m erupakan nilai RER yang telah bersih dari fak tor -fak tor ya n g bersifat sp ekulatif. Sed a n gka n LRER m eru pak an fu n gsi d a ri predetermin
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ma in perekonom im kro. en jK ad eunggulan i san ian g berad at p edari n a tdin apendekatan lam g k a ren keseim a n ilai bini angan tuadalah k arinternal riilmak em tuua dngkinkan ladnaeksternal. lam p einteraksi riodKeetah seim dinam u nbdangan a sar is yang dint sebagai d luas icapai daribila nilai berbagai aktual tukar variabel output keseimm b dalam angan encapai riil perekonom potential estim a si,ioutput an sedangkan sehingga (full employment nilai dapat tukar m). e nghasilkan K nom o ndiinalnya si ini dnilai idapa tand tu 9 diperoleh dengan riil keseim laju setelah b angan inflasidisesuaikan yang lebih tidak realistis. terlalu dengantinggi perbedaan A dapun dan keterbatasan konsisten laju inflasi dengan dalam operasional penyerapan dan luar dari negeri. tenaga pendeka k Perm yang ini adalah m a salahan endekati hasilyang estim natural mausi ngkin full sangat em tim pbergantung b loym ul dari ent. pendekatan Kepada seim b spesifikasi angan ini adalah eksternal dari pem mo idicapai lihan del mtahun a bila kro dalam dasar savin a seringkali sangat tergantung didasarkan pada pada realistis penilaian tidaknya yang subyektif param e ter dalam hubungan m enentukan antar variabel bahw a R yang ER pd tahun d igunakan dasardm a lam endekati m o d eLR l struktural. ER. Disam ping itu pendekatan ini m em iliki kelem a han karen m enganggap bahw a LRER konstan.
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m en persam riil internal jangka jelask adan an apanjang n kointegrasi. eksternal g erak a dalam n nmelainkan ilai Dpenelitian atu yaktarik ar jan mengestimasi dari gElbadaw k a pendekatan m en ein(1994) g ah persamaan d areduced dan n p aBaffes n jform an niligdibandingkan tukar yet a nal g (1997) terk riil dengan a itantara de dengan n g anlain efisie pendekatan m dan enggunakan nproduktivitas caku p fastruktural ktoproductivity r -fa variabel ktoadalah r yagrowth fundam ng m pendekatan edifferentials mepntal en g a riil, ru , ini harga hdengan ip lebih osisi relatif sederhana asum p erd non-traded a s ignilai an g dalam atukar goods n an ,ta m riil dan reanggunakan m homecountry terms e lakukan of latar d en belakang pasar p en y esu dunia ateori ian(terms k edarah an ofd trade, akta. eseim trade Pend bopensess an ekatan g an .sebagai Pini enjuga y im pproteksi m aneg man perhatikan dkebijakan a ri k esimperilaku bperdagangan), an g an nilai ek stern tukar afaktor l driil a n efekt in t untuk p dianggap r od u k mtiv em sebagai ita peroleh s sekto disequilibrium nilai r tra dtukar able dkeseim terms an ndalam onb-ta angan rd persam ablyang e, arauan m se mreduced ncerm od al, d iform nkan an .kPenim okondisi m pospisi angan fundam domestic dari e absorpt ntal perekonom (pangsa keseim b angan investasi ian.internal Fundamental dalam diproyeksi PDdeterminants B). dengan darideviasi keseimcapacity b anganutilization nilai tukar daririil rata-ratanya, m e rupakan variabel-variabel sedangkan penyimyang pangan sangat dariberpengaruh keseim b angan terhadap eksternal keseim diasum b angan sikan eksternal sebagai fungsi dan interna dari suatu negara. deviasi US realM long etode term ini ratem dari emrata-rata erlukan spesifikasi tertim b ang hubungan comparablejangka interest panjang rate negara yang G7 tepat tanpa lain n ya harus . D a lam m em ngestim en g estim a sia karakteristik si m isalig n m en struktural t , Stein m ednagri h iperekonom tu n g n ilai estim ian. a si d a ri h u b u jangka panjang dim a na nilai tukar hanya m e rupakan fungsi dari variabel-variabel fundam e ntal. Terdapat perbedan yang sangat besar antara nilai aktual dan nilai estim a si an tara tah u n 1977 d a n 1982 serta an tara 1983 d a n 1986. M od el ju g a tid a k m en cak u p ap besar yang terjadi pada dollar antara tahun 1980-1985.
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d ti[bahas oleh E ∆qtiga ] pad dkom ip eanpenelitian-penelitian pgonen aru h iyaitu oleh fu ekspektasi n d a m esebelum n tal nilai ek otukar nya, om iantara jan pada g kaperiode lain p a nFaruqee jan gt,, Z perbedaan , (1994) seh in gd gasuku n kemseim a cD bung t+k t d en gtukar nilai (1997). anFaktor janjangka g k afu wnadkpanjang atm u ted na t al nm risk tersebu enjadi: premium. t anRisk t arapremium lain terms b ertan of trade d a(tot), n eg ahtif a rga m erelatif n u n ju ktrad k a nebdago peningkatan terh a d a p non-traded risk premium goods (tn akan t ® Bm a lassa-S endorong a m uterjadinya elso n effect) depresiasi d a n ak tiv anilai lu a rtukar n eg eririil. b ersih (n
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investasi n yang kew ilaiatu d jiban-kew ikkenal aryang riil. dP eakan angan ejiban rbaikan dilakukan “ the d engan Balassa-Samuelson term spihak of ditrad negara luar e akan effect negeri. tersebut. m ” yang enM d oron am kin Meanunjukkan g kin besar p etinggi rbaikan jum lbahw risk ah p ocad sisi prem a setiap atran ngan ium saksi proses dsuatu evisa berjala neg yan yang d m im a ka ilik selanjutnya m akan iem nyebabkan a ksem a keapakan kin erca pertu mycenderung aahal an mlu bu untuk ah r an n eberdam m g prod eerilakukan autktivitas apsak kepada m investasi asektor mm pueanguatnya ntrd nad ienegara abl gaera lebih nilai k ita tersebut. cep u tukar n tu a tkd dom m aT e rin ingginya e pgstik. aadtassekto i extre juga m e nurunkan suku kepercayaan investor asing dan m e nim b ulkan tekanan depresia terhadap nilai tukar riil.
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bersifa t stationary atau difference-stationary . M etod e k oin tegrasi m en syaratkan bah wa v aer ia variabel yang digunakan dalam sistem harus non-stationary 1 1 . H a sil pengujian unit root dengan m e nggunakan m e tode Augmented Dickey-Fuller (A D F) terhadap m a sing-m a sing variabel dalam sistem persam a an m enunjukkan bahw a pada suku level, sem ua variabel tersebut bersifat non-stationer nam u n d a lam bentuk first difference bersifat stationer. H m enunjukkan bahw a sem u a variabel d a lam sistem m em p unyai sifat integrated of order one (1). Ko n sep koin tegrasi m en y atakan bah w a jika satu atau lebih variabel yan g tid a k stat terkointegrasi m a ka kom b inasi linier antar variabel-variabel dalam sistem akan bersifa stationer sehingga dapat diperoleh sistem persam a an jangka panjang yang stabil. D e d em ikian , selan ju tn y a d a p a t d ilaku ka n p en g u jian ko in tegr asi u n tu k m em peroleh h u b jan g ka p a n jan g an tara variabel n ilai tu k ar riil efektif d en g an variabel-variabel fu nd a
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Pengujian normality dilakukan dengan Jacque-Bera test, sedangkan pengujian serial correlation dilakukan dengan koin t egrasi d a p a t d ilaku k an u n tu k m em b en t u k h ubu n gan jan g ka p a n jan g an t ara n ilai tu Godfrey LM test. riil dengan faktor-faktor fundam entalnya. Tabel 3.2 m enunjukkan hasil test Johansen’s lik elih ood ratio u n tu k m en g etah ui ju mlah p ersam a an k oin teg r asi d i d a lam sistem . Pen g u d ilak u k an beberapa ka li d en g an m en g gun a ka n lag ya n g berbed a -bed a u n tu k sistem VARn ag ar m en dapatka n resid ual ya n g white noise.1 2 Den gan m en ggun aka n p a n jan g lag 2 d ip eroleh hasil yang m em enuhi kriteria w h ite noise. Perbandingan hasil estim a si likelihood ratio terhadap nilai kritisnya (critical values dengan suku signifikansi 1% dan 5% diketahui bahw a terd a pat 3 vektor kointegrasi.
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goodrsangat selu u h p araelastis meter m encapai m ilik i a2. r aH h yaal n ini g sesu m enunjukkan ai d en g anbahw h ip otesa a produktivitas . H a l in i d im u sektor n g kintraded k an a m o bilitas goods relatif arus terhadap m o dal di non-traded Indonesiagoods tidak m sangat em enuhi besar asum peranannya si perfect capital terhadap mobility. prilaku Pada nilai negara-negara tu kar riil d i In doyang n esiam . Va o bilitas r iab el k meoddalnya ua ter psem en tin purna, g adalperbedaan ah fak tor resuku siko ysuku ang m bunga em ilik sangat i ko e berpengaruh elastisitas 0,8.terhadap Ko efisienaliran resiko mbertanda o dal. Ke naikan positif suku hanya bunga karena dom definisi e stik yang dari indikator lebih cepat yang d a rip a d a kenaikan digunakan yaitu peningkatan su k u bu nga indeks lu a r negeri berartiakan resiko mm end a kin o rong rendah. terjad Ap inya abila aliran indeks mo resiko d al m yang m eningkat pada gilirannya (berarti resiko akanm meenurun) m perkuat sebesar m a ta1% uang m adom ka indeks e stik.nilai Da lam tukar kondisi riil efektif dim a na akan pergerakan apresiasi sebesar m o dal0,8% tidak . Im terlalu plikasinya sem padalah urna, elastisitas apabila pem suku e rintah bunga tidak terhadap dapat aliran segeram o da m en njadi y elesaik relatif a nrendah p erm a salah karena a naliran ek on om moidal d a nmpaosuk litikyang d i d aterjadi lam n eg tidak eri, m sem a k aatek ta-m a naata n terta de oleh su akan tetap k u bu besar. n ga d To em rmesstik of trad yane gsecara relatif lebih statistik tin gberpengaru gi, m elain khan positif ju g a d terhad ip en gaaru p nilai h i oleh tu kfa faktor lainnya dengan elastisitas seperti sebesar ketersediaannya 0,5%. Pengaruh sum positif b er daya, tot sesuai pertum dengan b uhankecenderungan ekonom i dan faktor hasil fundam hasil penelitian ental lainnya. sebelum nya dim a na income effect dari perubahan terms of trade di Indonesia lebih besar d iba n din gka n substitution effect -n y a. Ak tiv a lu ar n egeri bersih berp en g ar u h p terhadap prilaku nilai tukar riil efektif, m e ncerm inkan ketersediaan cadangan devisa Indonesia akan m engurangi dorongan spekulasi. Sem a kin besar N FA yang kita m iliki, m eningkatkan kepercayaan investor bahw a Indonesia cukup kuat m enghadapi gangguan eksternal (external shock) sehingga berpengaruh positif terhadap nilai tukar riil rupiah.
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kease m sing-m im bana gsing an janvariabel gka p anjafundam ng (p erseantal m aaterhadap n 6) akan dprilaku igu nakanilai n sebtukar agai ko riil efi fisdilakukan ien errorcorrect penguji ion be d en ngan g an dm ee term nggu inn a an akan janp gk ea nd p en katan dek d aerror ri p e correction rsam a an model n ilai (EC tu k Mar ).riil. H a sil estim a si p ersam a jangka pendek dengan pendekatan ECM untuk periode 1992.9-1998.8 sebagai berikut :
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yang statistik k tradr eseim keseim mbean berpengaruh mg ban uruk, b angan n yam . Daterakum eka positif v iasi akan n iterhadap lai u terjadi lasi tu kkuat ardepresiasi ak nilai m tueanim tukar l d ab riulkan pada k riil. eseim N nilai sentim ab man utukar ngkoefisien an ennnegatif keseim ya u mvariabel udm biangan. n pasar y a terjad ini yang Bila sang n d ree jan tukar m ng nim dkaah riil p b . Su eeaktual n lm kan d ek enwel .t(macroeconomic-induced atidak rfa aritu e cos berubah , pt e yan ru bgatin hm an gegi. fa nuju misalignment ktornilai p r odtukar ). u kNtiv am keseim ita usnd, ad alab am angannya k ajalan n gykaadpeem vniad asi ka ekin ju akan ig ba ersifat m terja em pengaruh positif persistent hinggayang deviasinya signifikan m em terhadap b esar (structural keseimmisalignment b angan nilai )1 4tukar . M acroeconomi riil jangka c-indpendek uced diikuti dengan perubahan variabel resiko dan perubahan terms of trade (lag 3).
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p eeerg m D sem ruepra akan bk er an 1993, am nannila A ifestasi g i tu ustus kardriil 1994, a riespecification feM k tif eiB dEan ER error D,e msem akibat akabver aria ad 1995. baenlypSejak ar ovariabel d u kaw tivaita lfu 1996 sn ,a dsapR m eEk eER nre t al scend iklain o kerun eyan u belum overvalued dan term diperhitungkan s ofyang trade sem m eam kin ke b erikan m dalam em bpengaruh 3esar m o del. sehingga Nyang a m unterbesar margum isalignm entasi dan entmini ini erm m dapat e pndorong unyai dikesam hubungan tim p bingkan ulnya dua dengan tekanan-tekanan arah dengan m e ngacu nilaipasar tukar padayang riil hasil (lihat berlebihan diagnostic lam piran terhadap test 5, Hterhadap a sil rupiah Gr anger pada residual. test). aw a lGkirsis. ejolakYnilai a ng m tukar e narik yang adalah setelah band berkepanjangan pada intervensi aw a l krisis dihapuskan berpengaruh (sejaksignifikan A g ustus 1997), terhadap aktual perkem REER b angan dan BEER ketiga maeriabel v n u n u tersebu k k an k etcen . Me dm eru b unrg uaknn ykao n va vriabel erg en .p r od u ktiv itas d a n term s of trad e p a d a saat terj depresiasi yang berlebihan didasarkan pada kenyataannya bahw a struktur produksi Ind o nesia m em iliki tingkat ketergantu ngan yang sangat tinggi terhad a p barang im p or. H ini dapat terlihat dari tingginya pangsa im p or barang-barang m entah dan bahan baku penolong (rata-rata 71,4%) dan barang m o dal (23,5%), sem entara barang konsum si hanya
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62
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
sebesar 5,1% (Lam p iran 5). Ketergantungan terhadap barang im p or yang tinggi dalam
Sem e ntara itu, naiknya suku resiko (country risk) Indonesia pada periode krisis
3.4. Proyeksi Jangka Pendek Nilai Tukar Rupiah
Un tuk m e ndukung pelaksanaan kebijakan-kebijakan pem e rintah dalam jangka
Ka rakteristik skenario optim is adalah sebagai berikut :
√
Country risk m em baik d en gan p erkem ban gan p olitik yan g m em baik, seh in gga v aria
v a ria b el ek on om i d a p a t b erg era k d en g a n n orm a l. D en g a n d em ik ia n tin g k a t p r od u k tiv ita s dan term s of trade diperkirakan lebih baik dibandingkan dengan tahun 1998.
√ Suku bunga dalam negeri cenderung m enurun hingga berkerak dalam kisaran
hingga akhir tahun 1999. Suku bunga luar negeri bergerak dalam kisaran 5%-5,5
√ Tek a n a n in flasi d om estik m en uru n , d en g an laju in flasi bu lan a n (y .o.y ) berg erak m e sekitar 2% pada akhir tahun 1999
Ka rakteristik skenario pesim is :
√ Pem u lihan ekonom i terham b at oleh iklim politik yang kurang m endukung, sehingg perbaikan prod u ktivitas d a n term s of trad e juga m engalam i ham b atan.
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Perilak u N ilai Tuk ar Rupiah dan A lternatif Perhitungan N ilai Tuk ar Riil6Keseimbangan 3
√ Term s of trad e d a n prod u ktivitas m a sih tetap lem a h. √ A sum si suk bunga dan laju inflasi sam a dengan skenario optim is Grafik 3.2. Proyeksi BEER Indeks REER Aktual dan Estimasi BEER ( Ta h u n d a s a r 1 9 9 2 = 1 0 0 )
120
REER
100
BEER
80
Optim is
60
Pe s i m i s
40 20 97:01
97:07
98:01
98:07
99:01
99:07
Gr afik 3.2 m enunjukkan bahw a baik dengan skenario optim is m a upun pesim is, nilai
Indikator ekonomi (rata-rata bulanan)
Inflasi tahunan luar negeri (weighted)1,4% Yen/US$ 110 – 115 DM/US$ 1,83 SGD/US$ 1,70 NLG/US$ 2,10 Won/US$ 1.184 GBP/US$ 0,62 FFr/US$ 6.23
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64
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
Tabel 3.3 Proyeksi Nilai Tukar Rp/US dolar Semester 2/1999 (Kurs Rata-Rata) Bulan
Ju li A g u stu s Sep tem ber O k t o b er N o v em b e r D esem b er
Optimis (Rp/US$)
6.862 7.039 6.844 6.665 6.609 6.675
Pesimis (Rp/US$)
7.528 7.541 7.489 7.351 7.254 7.354
D en g an asu m si P PP terseb u t d ip eroleh h a sil p r oy ek si n ilai tu k ar k eseim ban g an ru
IV. !
!
Kesimpulan
H a sil penelitian m e ngenai volatilitas nilai tukar rupiah m e nunjukkan bahw nilai tukar riil rupiah adalah regim e-dependent, artinya sistem nilai tukar yang dianu
H a sil studi aw a l terhadap dua negara yang m e m iliki sistem nilai tukar yan yaitu H o ng Ko ng (currency board system ) dan Singapura (relatif fleksibel dengan sistem
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Perilak u N ilai Tuk ar Rupiah dan A lternatif Perhitungan N ilai Tuk ar Riil6Keseimbangan 5
m e m iliki faktor fu n d a m e n t al d a n asp e k kelem b agaan yan g ku a t, ked u a n e gara tersebu relatif m a m p u bertahan dan terhindar dari krisis m a ta uang. !
!
!
!
H a sil pengujian statistik terhadap faktor-faktor fundam e ntal yang m e m p enga p r ilak u n ilai tu k ar riil efek t if m en un ju k ka n ba h wa v a riab el p r od u k tiv itas, term s of trad
P en g u k u r a n m isa lig n m en t y a n g d ila k u k a n d en g a n m em b a n d in g k a n h a sil estim dengan REER aktual dapat digunakan sebagai ukuran ekspektasi perubahan prilaku
H a sil estim a si m en u n ju k k a n b a h w a d a lam p erio d e d ib erlak u k a n n y a sistem nilai REER aktual cenderung konvergen dengan nilai keseim b angannya. Perubahan-
H a sil-hasil pengujian statistik terhadap koefisien estim a si, term a suk test diag terhadap error term m e nunjukkan bahw a persam a an tersebut valid untuk digunak dalam estim a si nilai tukar sehingga dapat digunakan sebagai salah satu alterna
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66
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
p erh itu ngan estim a si n ilai tu k ar riil jan g ka p en dek, m elen g kap i p erh itu ngan n ilai tu
!
Penyem p urnaan terhadap persam a an estim a si selanjutnya dapat dilakukan d en ga n p en in gk ata n k u a lita s d ata sep er ti v a ria bel ter m s of tra d e y an g besa r p en g
value import
mengingat indesk harga ekspor dan import yang kini tersedia p erhitu ngan nya san g at kasar. Disam pin g itu , ap a bila ju mlah observasi su dah m em a d
Daftar Pustaka
Baffes, John, Ibrahim A . Elbadaw a i, Stephen A . O çonnell, 1997, “ Single Equation Estim a tion of the Equilibrium Re al Exchange Ra te”. Clark, Peter B dan Ronald MacDonald, 1998, Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals, A M ethodological Comparison of BEERs and FEERs, IM F W o rking P a p e r/ 98/ 67, (W a shington: International M o netary Fu n d ).
Edw a rds, Sebastian, 1994, “Exchange Ra te M isalignm e nt in D eveloping Co untries”
End e rs, W a lter, 1995, A pplied Econometric Time Series, John W iley & Sons, Inc., C a nad a Faru q ee, H a m id , 1995, “Lon g -Ru n D e term in a n t s of th e Re al Exch a n g e Ra te: A StockFlow P e rsp e ctive”, IM F Staff Papers Vol. 42 N o .1, (W a shington: IM F).
Stein, 1995, et.al., “The Fundam e ntal D eterm inants of the Real Exchange Ra te of t
Flood, R.R., and A.K. Rose, 1995, “Exchange R ates: A virtual Quest for Fund a m e ntals,” Journal of M o netary Econom ics, N o .36.
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Perilak u N ilai Tuk ar Rupiah dan A lternatif Perhitungan N ilai Tuk ar Riil6Keseimbangan 7
Gartner, M a nfred, 1993, M acroeconomic under Flexible Exchange Rate, H a rvester W h eatsh eaf, H ertfo r sh ire, U K. H inkle, Law r ence E. and Peter J M o ntiel, Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Developing Countries, W o rld Ba nk forthcom ing publication (final d r aft N o vem b er 1998). H o ng Liang, 1998, “Re al Exchange Ra te Volatility: D o es the N o m inal Exchange Ra Re gim e M a tter?”. IM F W orking Paper/98/147 (W a shington: International M o netary Fund ). International Country Risk Guide, Ed. Thom a s S. Sealy, The PRS G r oup, East Syracuse,
N e w Yo rk. Be berap a p e n erbitan . M a cD o nald, Ro nald, 1997, “W h at D e term ines Re al Exchange Ra tes? The Long and Short of It”, IM F W orking Paper/97/21, (W a shington: International M o netary Fund ). N u rkse, 1945, Conditions of International Monetary Equilibrium, Priceton Essay. Ro gers, J.H ., 1995, “Real Shocks and Real Exchange Ra tes in Really Long Term Da ta,”
Sohm e n, E, 1961, Flexible Exchange Ra tes, (C h icago, Illionnois: C h icago U n iversity Pr ess). Tjokronegoro, Paul Soetopo, Exchange Ra te m o dels : A n Indonesian C a se, paper d ip r esen tasik a n p a d a th e Em erg in g M a rk ets C o n fren ce in Bu d a p est, N o v em b er 27-28, 19996. W a lu y o, D o d d y bu d i d a n Benny Sisw a nto, P eranan Kebijakan N ilai Tukar d a lam Era
W illeeeet, Th om a s 1996, “Exch a n g e Ra te Volatility, In t ern a tion a l Tr ad e , an d Re sou r ce A llocation.”Journal of International m o ney and Finance 5 M a rch: Supplem e nt 101-12
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68
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
Lampiran 1. Sistem Nilai Tukar Hongkong Dan Singapura
Selam a krisis ekonom i akhir-akhir ini tekanan terhadap m a ta uang dialam i ‘m a can-
Dua negara, Singapuran dan H o ngkong, m a ta uangnya m engalam i tekanan nam
2.2.1. Hongkong
CBS telah dilaksanakan oleh H o ngkong M o netary A uthority (H KMA ) sejak tahun
Kehandalan sistem ini di baw a h penanganan H KMA terbukti selam a kurun w a ktu
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Perilak u N ilai Tuk ar Rupiah dan A lternatif Perhitungan N ilai Tuk ar Riil6Keseimbangan 9
Nilai Tukar Hk$/US$ 8 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7 -93 -94 -95 -96 -97 M ar Mar Mar Mar Mar
-98 Mar
Serangan berikutnya m elibatkan strategi spekulan yang lebih canggih. Pada bulan
N a m u n selain itu dapat disim p ulkan em p at hal yang m e njadi penopang utam a daya tahan p e rekonom ian H o ngkong:
√ Ca d a n g an d ev isa yan g san g at ku a t, p er akh ir tah un 1998 H on g kon g m em iliki cad a n g devisa sebesar U SD 88,4 m ilyar, terbesar ketiga di dunia setelah Jepang dan RRC .
√ Kebijakan fiskal yang berhati-hati dan kredibel, dengan skala pem erintahan yang kecil dan tanpa hutang luar negeri. Struktur pajak hongkong yang sederhana dan m urah,
√ Sistem keuangan yang sehat d a n solvent. D uania perbankan H o ngkong sehat d a n ku sehingga naik turunnya bunga secara ekstrim yang sering terjadi dalam C BS tidak
√ Fleksibelitas serta kepekaan perekonom ian H o ngkong am a t baik. Perekonom ian
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70
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
2.2.2. Singapura
Kebijakan m oneter negara pu lau ini d itangani oleh Mo netary Au thority of Singapore
Perekonom ian negara ini bersifat terbuka, dan kebijakan nilai tukar m a ta uangnya
Sedangkan di sisi kebijakan fiskal, Singapura selalu m e ngatasi m a sa krisis ekono
Sebelum krisis ekonom i tahun 1997 terjadi, perekonom ian Singapura berada dalam
Tingkat bunga di Singapura juga sangat rendah 2,93 persen di tahun 1996 dan 4,35
√ C a dangan devisa yang am a t kuat, sebelum krisis ekonom i A s ia, di akhir tahun 19
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Perilak u N ilai Tuk ar Rupiah dan A lternatif Perhitungan N ilai Tuk ar Riil7Keseimbangan 1
Tabel 2.2.2. Surplus Neraca Barang & Jasa, Cadangan Devisa, Surplus Budget, dan GDP Singapura tahun 1991-99 (juta dolar Singapura, kecuali*dalam juta dolar AS)
Tahun 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
N e raca Br g d a n Jasa*
C a dangan D e visa*
Surplus Bu d g et
GDP
5,384 6,433 4,808 12,114 15,247 15,796 15,990
34,133 39,885 48,361 58,117 68,695 76,847 71,289 72,291
7,591 9,537 12,998 13,086 15,870 17,868 13,612
75,53 80,94 94,32 108,22 120,70 130,77 143,01
Sumber: International Financial Statistics
√ Kebijakan ekon o m i m a kro yan g d iim b an g i oleh kebijaksan a an m a kro yan g berorien t
pada pasar, Pem e rintah hanya m e ngintervensi pasar dom e stik dalam bidang-bidan pendidikan, perum a han, dan kesehatan dasar m a syarakat.
√ Fu n d a m en tal ek on om i y a n g su d ah k u at. Ek stern al sh ock y a n g m elan d a Sin gap u ra d a d iserap o leh p erek o n o m ian d en g an ad ju sm e n t y a n g tid a k m e n y ak itk a n , m isaln y a tan p a m en y ebabkan m en in g katn y a p e n g an g gu r an .
√ Pem erintahan yang kred ibel d a n relatif bersih.
Kesim pulannya, sebelum krisis ekonom i m enyerang kaw a san A s ia, perekonom ian
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72
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
Lampiran 2. Sumber Data dan Definisi
Studi dilakukan dengan periode observasi bulanan dari Septem b er 1992 sam dengan A g ustus 1998. Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) :q
Variabel ini dihitung dengan m enggunakan basket 8 m a ta uang m itra dagang utam a
Term of Trade : tot
Variabel tot m e rupakan rasio harga relatif ekspor terhadap im p ort. D a lam hal digunakan data indeks harga perdagangan besar ekspor dan im p ort.
Relatif harga non-raded terhadap traded goods : tnt
Re latif harga non traded terhadap tarded goods didefinisikan sebagai ratio harg trad e d / trad e d good s d o m estik terh a d a p IH K/ IH P B lu a r n egeri (trad e w e igh t ed ratio)
Net Foreign Assets : nfa
M e rupakan stok N FA neraca sistem m o neter yang dinyatakan dalam U S dolar
Resiko
D igunakan financial risk indeks dari sum b er data International C o untry Risk G uide
In d ik a to r y a n g d ig u n a k a n oleh IC RG d a la m m en g h itu n g in d ek s resik o k eu a n g a n a d a la h
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Perilak u N ilai Tuk ar Rupiah dan A lternatif Perhitungan N ilai Tuk ar Riil7Keseimbangan 3
Real Interrest rate differential : rid f
Merupakan perrbedaan antara suku bunga riil dom estik dan suku bunga riil dom estik
Lampiran 3. Johansen Cointegration Test Date: 12/10/99 Time: 14:35
Likelihood 5 Percent 1 Percent Hypothesized e Critical Valu e No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Ratio Critical Valu 0.449778 0.372585 0.289812 0.199067 0.105549 0.000563
125.2721 82.25687 48.69432 24.05413 8.071755 0.040534
94.15 68.52 47.21 29.68 15.41 3.76
103.18 76.07 54.46 35.65 20.04 6.65
None ** At most 1 ** At most 2 * At most 3 At most 4 At most 5
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74
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 1 Cointegrating Equation(s) LREER92 1.000000
LTOT LTNT_1 LNFA LRISK_FR LRIDF_1A C -0.515623 -2.002143 -0.368522 -0.823343 0.039097 11.43002 (0.13400) (0.25079) (0.04607) (0.19990) (0.01217)
Log likelihood 759.7504
Normalized Cointegrating Coefficients: 2 Cointegrating Equation(s) LREER92 LTOT LTNT_1 LNFA LRISK_FR LRIDF_1A C 1.000000 0.000000 -1.224283 -0.529034 -1.068117 0.052591 7.077662 (0.45441) (0.08874) (0.36144) (0.02277) 0.000000 1.000000 1.508580 -0.311297 -0.474714 0.026170 -8.440959 (0.48173) (0.09408) (0.38317) (0.02414) Log likelihood 776.5317
Lampiran 4.
D e p e nd ent Variable : D (LREER92) M e thod : Least Squ a res D a te : 03/ 19/ 99 Tim e : 15:13
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Perilak u N ilai Tuk ar Rupiah dan A lternatif Perhitungan N ilai Tuk ar Riil7Keseimbangan 5
R-Sq u a red 0.951358 M e an d e p e n d en t var A d ju sted R-Sq u ared 0.946868 S.D . d e p e n d en t v a r. S.E. of regression 0.022352 A k aike in fo criterion Sum squared resid 0.032475 Schw a rz criterion Lo g lik eh o o d 175.1787 F-statistic D u rbin-W a tson stat 1.947349 Pr ob (F-statistic)
-0.010769 0.096970 -4.671631 -4.450288 211.8808 0.000000
Lampiran 5.
D a te : 01/ 03/ 99 Tim e : 09:26 Sam p le : 1992:09 1998:08 Lags : 2 N u ll H y p o thesis
O b s F-statistic
P r obability
LTO T does not G r anger C a use LREER 72 92 7.81793 0.00089 LREER92 does not G r anger C a use LTO T 241113 0.09746 LTN T_1 does nor G r anger C a use LRE 72 ER924.55017 0.01403 LREER92 does not G r anger C a use LTN T_1 6.90188 0.00188 LN FA does not G r anger C a use LREER 72 92 2.39162 0.09925 LREER92 does nor G r anger C a use LN FA 3.67955 0.03047
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76
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
Lampiran 6 : Pangsa Impor Menurut Jenis Barang
Br g. Ko n su m si Bh n .M en t ah & Br g. M o d a l To tal Bhn Baku Penolong 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 s/ d Jun98
4.45% 4.05% 4.47% 5.78% 6.54% 5.20% 5.65%
68.55% 70.72% 72.36% 72.84% 70.98% 72.53% 71.64%
27.00% 25.23% 23.16% 21.38% 22.49% 22.27% 22.71%
100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
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Stabilk ah Permintaan U ang di Indonesia Sebelum dan Selama 7 7 Krisis ?
STABILKAH PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA SEBELUM DAN SELAMA KRISIS ? Triatmo Doriyanto *)
Tulisan ini mencoba mengetahui apakah permintaan uang riil di Indonesia
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78
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
I. Pendahuluan
K
risis m o neter yang m e land a Ind o nesia sejak pertengahan tahun 1997 d a n d oleh m e lem a hnya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap U SD telah m e ngarahkan kepa diadopsinya sistem nilai tukar m engam b ang (free floating exchange rate). H a l ini
Tulisan-tulisan tentang stabilitas perm intaan uang riil di Indonesia pernah dibuat
residualnya ;
sedangkan tahap berikutnya m e naksir dalam jangka pendek dengan cara m em a sukkan residual jangka panjangnya (lag 1 periode). Prosedur kedua adalah den
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Stabilk ah Permintaan U ang di Indonesia Sebelum dan Selama 7 9 Krisis ?
O r ganisasi penulisan adalah sbb. : bagian II m enjelaskan data yang dipergunakan
II. Data yang Dipergunakan
Studi ini m e m p ergunakan observasi bulanan (seasonally unadjusted)1 selam a periode
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80
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
m en cerm in k an h u bu ngan p ositif an t ara p erm in t aan u a n g riil d en g an ou t p u t d a n n ilai
Gambar 1. Grafik hubungan antara log(CURRENCY/IHK), log(PDBREAL) dan ER serta hubungan DEP1 dengan INFBUL untuk periode 1988:01 - 1999:03 16 14 12 10
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Stabilk ah Permintaan U ang di Indonesia Sebelum dan Selama 8 1 Krisis ?
80 60 40 20 0 -20 88
89
90
91
92
93
DEP1
94
95
96
97
98
99
INFBUL
Transform a si logaritm a dilakukan terhadap variabel-variabel dalam persam a
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82
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
Tabel 1. Test Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) untuk menentukan orde integrasi setiap variabel.
Variabel log (CU RREN CY/ IH K)
A D F Statistik -2,229
Ju m lah Lag Ko n stan Tren d ter m asu k ter m asu k 3
Ya
Ya
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Stabilk ah Permintaan U ang di Indonesia Sebelum dan Selama 8 3 Krisis ?
p en a k siran tid a k m en g ab a ik a n ad a n y a p o ten si v ek t or k o in teg r asi, m a k a p r osed u r d ilak u k a n d e ngan m enggu n akan 1 vektor kointegrasi. Tabel 2. Hasil penaksiran kointegrasi.
Sam p le: 1988:01 1999:03 Included observations: 130
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84
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
Persam a an jangka panjangnya adalah sbb. : Log (C U RREN C Y/ IH K) = -12,12411 + 1,164076 log(PD BREA L) IV. Error Correction Model
Pen a ksiran p ersamaan koin tegrasi m en g u n gkapkan fa ktor -fa ktor yan g m em pen
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Stabilk ah Permintaan U ang di Indonesia Sebelum dan Selama 8 5 Krisis ?
Tabel 3. Hasil penaksiran ECM
D ep en d en t Variab le: D (LO G(CU RREN CY/ IH K)) M eth o d : Least Squ a res Sam p le(ad justed ): 1988:03 1999:03 Included observations: 133 after adjusting endpoints Variab
C efficien
S d Erro
t-Statistic
P
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86
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
dan nilai tukar (m e skipun pengaruhnya kecil). Dapat dicatat bahw a level transaksi
Gambar 2. Nilai aktual, nilai fitted dan residual penaksiran ECM
0.3 0.2
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Stabilk ah Permintaan U ang di Indonesia Sebelum dan Selama 8 7 Krisis ?
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88
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
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Stabilk ah Permintaan U ang di Indonesia Sebelum dan Selama 8 9 Krisis ?
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Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
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Stabilk ah Permintaan U ang di Indonesia Sebelum dan Selama 9 1 Krisis ?
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Sample 1988:03 1999:03 Observations 133
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Method: Least Squares Date: 03/10/00 Time: 08:21 Sample: 1988:03 1999:03 Included observations: 133
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1997, diyakinisebagaidampak aliran mempercepat pembiayaan modalkeluarsecara pembangunan pemulihan perekonomian mendadak ekonomiyang kombinasiantara dan adalah dalam bersumber kombinasikontraksidisisimoneter jumlah besarnya daridana yang aliran sangat modalasing, asing, besartelah dengan lemahnya belajar mengakibatkan sejakpada sektorkeuangan, terjaditekanan pengalaman kinerja sertadialamisaat perekonomian aliran yang lemahnya modalkeluardan dengan penilaian ini, maka ekspansif cepat kegiatan dapat merosot darisisifiskalyang diyakinibahw usaha. serta Tulisan dengan aini pembangunan dampak dilakukan ditujukan yang secara untuk cukup yang melihat bertahap. lebih lama. bersifat pengaruh Berbagai Halinididukung ‘indigenous aliran permasalahan modal dari process’ keluar yang hasil akan pengujian timbulselama lebih terhadap tahan yang perekonomian terhadap krisis memperlihatkan sepertiperekonomian gangguan. nasional bilamana sertakombinasi yang efektifitas terkontraksi, kebijakan respon inflasiyang kebijakan tersebut diterapkan, yang melambung ditempuh. laju dan inflasi nilai tukardicapairelatif yang yang melemah lebih secara rendah empiris dengan dapat nilaitukar dibuktikan yang pada lebih studiini. kuat. Namun Darihasilstudiinijuga demikian, kebijakan terlihat yang
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antara P dikem d e item rekon pulain ukakan. ohm . dengan D ian a rin Salah sisi a sion mkeesatunya a ngurangi bliteru jak a s nm m adalah ekspansi eonngealam ter, kom pipengeluaran ekon m b inasi etrin raksi tdari ahsebesar de aliran pem n g an erintah 12,59% d muokdal un untuk gkeluar, han in gIM proyek gaFtriw sektor telah u investas lan mkeua eII/ n 1 1 Pendapatan yang berbagai n a m urentan, n me kebijakan n iperkapita ndan g katkan penataan . Km p ee bijakan enrosot g elu kegiatan a tajam yang ran dsehingga ditem adunia lam ran pusaha uhgm ka secara enem pyang r ogram pgaris atkan lemrestru besar ah Indonesia (poor kadalah tu corporate r isasi kem penerapan sektor governance b ali pada keu )sis klasifikasi (Bank nilai d a n utukar nIndonesia, tu k negara k meepngam en t in “m 1998). b giang an skin”. so(Berm floating sial Laju (social ula exchange inflasi dari safetym net rate elam ). nurunnya ) sejak Seblain ung tanggal ktinggi ekepercayaan d u a kyang 14 ebA ijak ghingga ustus a ninvestor d i1997, atas, Septem ju penerapan asing gb aer d ilak 1998 yang telah kem k reformasi ebija um dian ka en c struktural m diikuti ap on ae i 75,47% teroleh ke untuk taberbaliknya .tM gu emenghilangkan/ n skaim p uen red belu m am om dal tek m(emengurangi capital anncaap n reversal terh a i hyperinflation a d),berbagai akondisi p n erasep cadistorsi perekonom p erti emybaan dalam ygarpae ian nrn serta adenga h terj ti dietahun cepat terpad p rek omu ne1960-an, ountuk m mbian uruk. . m laju eK mopndisi inflasi erbaiki ini yang sem kelem tinggi a kin a han-kelem diperparah ini telah maehan nekan karena sistem daya pada keuangan beli saat riilbersam m ad syarakat a n aperbanka an sekto khususnyadan keuangan bagisektor m ereka kegiatan yang berpenghasilan usaha berada dalam tetapkondisi dan m ayang syarakat rapuh. kecil. A k ibat akum masalah tersebut, maka selanjutnya berdampak pada penurunan drastis kinerja perekonom ian seperti tercerm in pada krisis yang terjadi saat ini.
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maesio n bagian akan nunjukkan m n al. a lim dua mDp aasecara uakan lam mperkem ep ncari m eum nee lihat litian kem u bm angan sensitivitas akan uin ngkinan i km m oe nengesankan dlihat isi alternatif variabel y aperkem n g d im sebagaim ekonom kom abkangan su bd inasi diia terhadap ekonom bna akebijakan tasi tercerm p ai sebelum d aliran ak iekonom nepada ad maodan an dal pertum i mselam keluar e an kro inb gdalam a uhan kdan m a tn aliran krisis, kebijakan k ekonom aita nm nserta yo ia yang dal ekonom d ekebijakan keluar. ng tinggi an ipm rKo (rata-rata a egkro dua, ekonom ramsaat m p eem lihat kebijakan idi u mlih atas a kro respon a n7% ek yang nilai opertahun) n variabel oditem mtukar i. Sepla penting uh m dan neju selam ngam tlaju n yekonom ab inflasi a dang u maabsa bebas aiyang m gkrisis ian kro tera diterapkan, rendah ekonom terhadap kh ir (di mietahun baw ru baik p kebija 1997secara kesim 10% ) (T k p 1998. p aaulan n abel rsial ek1). o Bagian dan nm oSalah m aim u im pp tiga u alikasi k n satu rsetelah odan yfaktor akebijakan nem g ddp iitem at laku positif akan pk userta an hyang m pkom eem nyajikan saran em b rin e inasi njad talanjutan h .dm iSecara ikontributor ten o del g adari yang him kopn penelitian lisit. digunakan dbaiknya isi m bagian en inkond ini. gdalam ini katn d isi iyharap terseb a alira mo akan enjelaskan dal mkeluar, a m pu m pengaruh dan enjelaskan ketiga,kondisi penelitian apakah aliran krisis ini m diharapkan o yang dal keluar terjadi akan serta pada m akebijakan tahun m pu m1997, enyajikan ekonom sebenarnya altem i m a kro a tif dapat yang kom d juga item bterjadi in pu a si h terhad kebijakan pada periode a p variabel ekonsebelum om i ekonom m a kro n yagu ibilam m n aam kro aena mInd pterjadi ercep o nesia. aaliran t p em u mlih o dal a n kon keluar d isiyang p erekon cukup om nasional. besar pada saat tersebut.
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besar ked tid au klaa bkebijakan h erb d ib en an tugkup ntersebut iantja am s daansa m yraastru nka g terk berd ktuarit y aam dnepgnak kguan pad atk .M eagem iatan na untapnya ruin tW v estasi a rr situasi (1998) sw a sta--, p ekonom ertutelah mbiusecara hmaenned m dan iklim yang pesatnya tinggi pertum usaha lebih b disebabkan yang uhankondusif. investasi olehdan penum konsum pukkan si. Investasi stok m o dal sw a msta elalui sebagaim aliran a mna o dal tercerm asing ketim b ang peningkatan prod u ktifitas tenaga kerja 2. Ad anya d eregulasi sektor keuangan akhir dekade 1980-an telah berdam p ak pada m eningkatnya arus m o dal m a suk khususny m elalui hutang sw a sta. H utang sw a sta dari w a ktu ke w a ktu terus m engalam i peningkata yang hingga akhir 1996 telah m encapai U S$ 51,1 rniliar (Tabel 1). Tingginya arus m o dal m a su k kem ud ian berd a m pak p a d a p erkem b an g an besaran -besaran m on eter. Pertu mbu uang beredar, terutam a M2, naik pesat didorong oleh m eningkatnya arus m o dal m a suk (Ta bel 1 ).
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sebelum tin seca p erm ggr iase salahan. tid inrin a ya, kgla respon dneg Knseguragu annkebijakan gm tela aenninvestor h inm gkeyang antn g ayk asing atelah ib aa ru tksterhad ditem am noterja d aplauh m d pikesinam ak untuk su etid k. aSm kesm b eeim ngatasi uenngan tbaarnasektor gitu krisis an to k etu m ekstem aa lek nrupakan ognasnuaym lanasion n sigtu cu rata-rata besar sebagai k ebija(klarge adam n di terp financial atas p ak ad penularan u8% imbalances m esejalan n cak)useperti krisis p dengan kebikeuangan jatercerm k am nm eningkatnya oinndan epada ter,politik fisk besarnya akonsum l,di d aThailand, n defisit sek sito sw rneraca aaltelah .sta Seca (Tabel secara transaksi r a u m1 ucepat m ). kebija berjalan, diikuti y a n g d ipenarikan tem tingginya pu h addana alaju lah pinflasi, sehingga en erapnilai antelah ktukar ebija berdampak kyang an mterapresiasi on eter sangat ketatsecara dalam serta m terhadap riil endan erap tingginya ka kinerja n kebija suku k an fisk bunga. perekonom y a n g beD rh a ri a ti-h isisi ananasional. neraca ti an t ara transaksi Struktur lain d enberjalan, gfundam an m enbesarnya geu ntal r anperekonom g i ek defisit sp a nyang siip an en terjadi yang g elurentan atidak ran p e terlepas dan m erin rapuh t ah dari . Be tin gdisajikan sem ini g aikin ny aterbuka p erm secara intdaeangan n kronologis im pdoirtariknya sejalpokok-pokok an dm enogdaanl m asing ekebijakan nintersebut. g ka tn yyang a pInvestasi erm telah intaaditem m n deo ngalam mpeuh. stiki. penuruna Sebalik ek y asp n gosan r mg eat lem tajam ah ak,ib inaftlasi m em lee mnaih nn gykaa d t tin ayagsa g ii,nngilai d an tudkiar alih mkearo n nsyoat tajam sebagia serta n prb od eu rbkasigbaai ra da barang ekspor negatif lainnya untuk sebagaim memenuhi a na dikem pesatnya u kakan peningkatan di bagian permintaan aw a l tulisan. dalam negeri. Perkem ban gan in i secar a keselu ru h an m en gakibatkan tetap besa rn ya d efisit tran sa ksi be
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mo k p terbuka. D yang eaenna m d gb isi eta lebih Pensiun uruknya fu tBank anserius dbaaB m ik Indonesia situasi Uem M n dari e tN alalke p lpengambil perekonom ueidre km aek lam b eoinghentikan ja n oSB km an Ikebijakan. ia ipad an, m noIn telah n ad etanggal pem ter on e m m sNamun be ia aelian m u15 le p au b ksa s.d ih nSBPU demikian, fisk b Bank . 22 aik aA l.perbankan dg Indonesia D austus a ririn masih sisi eg1997 akra esejak untuk terdapat b -niberjum ja egka tanggal am ra nem y nurunkan lah o ansebes e g24 ter m Ju a krisis, lain 1997, R ketidakkonsistenan diskonto p3,3 me dem triliu sehingga lalu SBI iikian nin .intervensi. D terv ipula sisi kebijakan enfisk dalam dengan si baPenurunan al,ikpm yang secara eFasilitas m elaksanakan erin diterapkan spot tdilakukan ahD m m iskonto aeulak kebijakan, pucukup u n secara ksecara Iadan n kyang oSBI bertahap nseperti forward solid R bersifat epo adsi ditunjukkan a juga sejak an nm g penyesuaian e g dihentikan. n 4 a ran iSeptem n gkda oleh etk ng aban nkebijaka U er sem flek pm sam aya eslak nta ib nilai tersebut p u dengan e nn tuatukar k ng kem 20 gu belum h R O ban uali kpiah tober dm cukup, ae nm lon p1997. elalui n gg R garkan kajian uSelain piah pelebaran m liku u litu, aan sih ig djuga rentang ipm tas re oyek ngalam dilakukan p erekon Bintervensi UM i tekanan M om pencairan yan iangnilai m berm deeskip presiasi tukar lebih uatan u nm aw tekan e im yang njadi ap l SBI or atajam ntin 12% dKeh gpusus gi dan r. U esiasi dnatuk m n yam i kem pada m tetap B UeM nggunakan uN tanggal tin dian , Yg ag ydiakhiri a i.san 19sum d Aagnustus dengan bLem er pendanaan b 1997. agpenghapusan a lain Bank n yluar a Indonesia (sejak negeri. rentang tanm ge gnaikan a lintervensi 17 Sep suku t embunga pada b er 1997), 14 SBIAintervensi gserta ustusp e 1997. lon unt seluruh jangka penyediaan kredit w a ktu likuiditas yang m eterutam ncapai tertinggi a untuk 30% program untukpengem jangka w b angan a ktu 1 bulan. usaha A kecil. k ibat p en in gkatan SBI tersebu t, su ku bu n ga overnight d i p asar u an g an tarban k sem p at m en cap
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likuiditas valuta yan seperti dalam an gggm a ran dan asing, epenghapusan lip perekonom an m utie tkebijakan ara nyentuh lan glain kahim tata an -seluruh lan e Swap yang lalu g niaga kah khusus ip dicerm bidang. e sebagai impor n g uuntuk rian nkan kedelai, O beriku gleh an eksportir oleh karena sut b :bawang kenaikan p sid eniitu, iB tertentu nB gM katan kebijakan putih ,suku p enp dan ce bunga ab n eugandum, fasilitas yang rim tanSBI akan ditem erin beberapa dfor serta agri war an puh sudam kepada n lebih p ber kali erp na o im m p tertuju untuk yaitu eigas n portir gh pada proyek yang apada p(2 usan tanggal O dupaya iku m tober H so ahakan abil rga 27 untuk nasional, 1997), P Januari, am sokan e mlalu penurunan encapai dan 23 Setem i p eM ningkatan penghentian astabilisasi ret, pat G21 i(H roA P W ppS) ril, asecepatnya jak jib penggunaan sem dan M barang einim n 7 ,M serta e um imagar 1998, e(G dana w kem W aproses hM m serta uanggaran )d eValas skipun ah a p pem n enerim m tata dalam u edan lihan njadi na inonaga anekonom 3% bu beber ,k an pa kom tid anggaran perkem ejnaa kon ,diti, b pgeeb grlan rangan u bpenurunan h a untuk iakgnasu n ren selanjutnya, a nproyek dgcm d an iansecara lam aisprepayment trIndustri awsa isuku d bertahap katn u syp bunga taPesaw rin ug jkam tlam tarif u ryang aa pnate.k bea rTerbang H p oterjad m aajm sil aekrsial aadsuk na i,m ri N pseb e beberapa. seran urupakan nsantara geusar ra gn kU g aS a hasil ian (IPTN produk D n3 sk u 50 e b db sa ju )iid .ri jak dan ti,a, target daadnpenghapusan naterseb p nrp kuantitas iveantyiu sed a t ssu kem PPN cu yang k ubuntuk ingin pali mfasilitas endicapai pem g g em b elian SBPU boleh irakbahan a otoritas kepada n . baku perbankan m od neter. a n jasa Suku secara d a ri bunga pem bertahap aSBI soksem d adan lam patterukur negeri m encapai kepad sejak 70,2% a tanggal perusahaan pada21 O k tober berstatus lelan g tan1997 g Perusahaan gal 2 yang Sep tdiprioritaskan em Eksportir b er 1998Tertentu d an bagi selan bank (PET) ju t nyang ydalam a beran mrangka em g su enuhi r -an ekspor g persyaratan su r m tidak. en uru langsung, ntertentu. m en jad i 46 p en a m pada lelang bah an25 keN loompem p okb / jen er 1998. is kom od ita s caku pan .PET d ari 10 m en jadi 18, p en eta pan sta konversi penggunaan bahan baku/ penolong untuk kom o d itas ekspor.
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leb langkah-langkah m kred b ee arlan m k iha ib t, bm eg e pn o su sa etu dnrn egkp lgelu B ya ,a kdn e a dan ran g akd n untuk deati ig Pg pieu e an pm tny aam e d nkrin hasp e aasisi m ntteaad ah pkrercepat u lain ia dP la lah aesn rb i, Baliran m ay an a n openyelesaian k n k dg In aem n lpdsed N aood da nasio esia elgrh asin in lira aatelah nlg ,a hutang nm d p nieyan m m rek ag e b pn gap eoSw irb rnce o gasebagai a m klik psta, aa ian tk tm paantara terb renonvariabel ssu ja eu d skk p iuk a rlain b e iv du ta eaeksoge nn tisa km ggua. e an tlal aFa s pem m nilai Penggunaan efek tidak engurangi b p tu lagi entukan ek nar y eb menemukan ma variabel e atau ran ngam INkD m rR isis b ealiran Aang mdan tempat b ke atasi bebas um Jakarta an og dal wyang an sebagaim ew sebagai deinisiatif. i nang T aman h ailan variabel d auntuk na istribusi d ,yang k etid menyimpan eksogen biasa aBkasdtab aterd nsangat iU lan rkekayaan. ausan k poaberhubungan n t dLogistik isi a lam soDengan sbu ial(B kpuo U dengan teks litik LO Gn ekon )aha untuk realitas m e an m ku rporu beras, erhatikan (lih yang n naytalerjadi b dan koin ke skondisi m rja 1selam e).nhapus pSem erek tersebut, aekrisis onnhak tara omberlangsung. m iitu an omnopoli reg daaka ta iosulit n ya al, dalam ng D serta bagi d isadari igtata uotoritas ad n aaniaga bahw knaynam ka m berbagai esecara g ru oineter atan p akteoritis asp dapat nkom e dkauta lasi opergerakan m diti ku ed artalan mlainnya i pa engar sardv sep periode m asing, aliran o dal ertitelah m dapat cengkeh, sam o dal pm dipengaruhi el secara e1983:01 msem b erikan e berkesinam n,sam oleh kertas dam pvariabel ai pd dengan ak abnnegatif ungan. kayu suku 1997:02. . pada bungaaliran Pengam dom e stik. mb o dal. ilan N aperiode m un m e ini ngingat dim a ksudka u n tu k m en g umjiokem pergerakaan dal selam u n g kin a krisis a n bah sangat w a p edipengaruhi rsam a an stru oleh k tupengaruh r al d en g an eksternal p eriod daripada e sam p el seb terjadinya s u ku bu ngakrisis d om ediharapkan stik, m aka alidapat ran m om d aelnjelaskan d alam p enperilaku elitian iniperekonom d ip erlaku kain an sesejak bagaiterjadi variabekr
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pem e rintah sebagai variabel eksogen adalah untuk m e ndudukan peran ketiga variabel tersebut sebagai variabel kebijakan selam a periode penelitian. Beberapa pengalam kebijakan ekonom i m a kro nasional yang kerap d ilakukan - baik pad a saat terjad i gangg ekstem a l pada dekade 1980-an m a upun saat terjadi tekanan dari sisi perm intaan yang
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variabel blok H an m u etnangkap bungannya ara m ovdel aim riab sederhana, phubungan or elpositif dalam b eb a s terhadap d persam yaitu antara en gan blok ain external an pendapatan pasar v estasi ekspor, financing barang, adadalah a lah dan dengan blok : su negatif untuk pasar kukegiatan b un m terhadap uang, geanangkap m blok e investasi. m isuku lik penaw iperanan h ubunga. b Penggunaan a uran n gan kandung agregat, Ay paabila ng danpor pendapatan sem aliran im blok entara m dalam oneraca d aaliran lm sebagai mee pem ningkat ndorong m obdayaran. faktor a lm da ekspor an ka yang im Pada konsum p or m nasional. me mam esing-m sp miengaruhi ijuga likiSebuah ahubungan akan singinvestasi blok bertam estim terdiri yang absi berm ah, positif. H atas Isedangkan ID ula beberapa (1995) dSuku a ri pem bunga mbila persam eim kiran suku pd erlihat aa lam tent an bu stru m ini teori edianggap ningkat kakselator tu r al. S m esebagai a ca ka dalam r aakan u mkom u investasi. m adpa peonen bagian rsamPada biaya aadnastru ri teori dalam pk end tu mru a m arni pled alakukan a tan fungsi lamyang mo akselerator investasi. dsem el inu i ala da dlBila iatu ini h jpudiw suku ekrsa an am kili ubunga n aa tu oleh nk“skons naik ta b uakka kem m perubahan uutek dian “biaya” s ek dialihkan pendapatan onm om eningkat i mm a kernasional. njadi o dsehingga a ntabungan p ern Naah m dapat duin sebagai gdem u nm ae kikian, nurunkan a nrespon oleh dalam Nterhadap op mkondisi irin inat (1983), investasi. kenaikan perekonom MODB suku I,idan abunga nyang Yosh (1998) sa n ga t terg d a lam a n tm un engestim g p ad a d an siaperilaku lu a r n egevariabel ri, m a kaekonom fu n gsi a k im selera a krotInd or inoinesia. d iga n tika n oleh v aliran m o dal. Kendati hubungan ini m a sih dapat diperdebatkan, diharapkan hasil estim ak a n m a m pu m en jelask a n h ub un g an an tara aliran m od a l asin g d en g an in v estasi. Sed hubungan investasi dengan im por adalah untuk m e nangkap adanya linkage bahw a ketergantungan industri dalam negeri terhadap im por m a sih sangat besar (H IID, 1995) O leh karena itu diyakini bahw a kenaikan investasi akan dibarengi pula oleh kenaikan im p or, terutam a bahan baku dan barang m o dal.
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Sem Indonesia. dan kesulitan m eru n rupakan penawaran e inp ntara gak k aadalam tk nN itu, pengem sin ain lai tp hubungan uang, esis m tukar r od e ngukur m u bk angan m om sdain eeka m nilai lym atotal iperm liki dari seh o ntukar ehubungan iter n m ifactor ntaan gogddel riil aap productivity ne dengan uang k open neay yang w nmacro esian m a ran eekspor negatif rupakan m economy e ag dnyebabkan im r eg am dengan noleh aefungsi atm nbieliki lai Y rtam odalam tu im shino dari hubungan kpbar or ah suku d (1998). penelitian karena .iSed ten bunga, yang taunkD bila gan a kpositif lam aini on terjadi leh h usel b yaitu apresiasi pendapatan persam m penaw uang o delnya, beredar, bila aaran an rupiah rupiah Ypenaw agregat o dan shino selisih inflasi. mmaam e ran ka dengan pendapatan ngalam enggunakan im Perm agregat porinvestasi iim ntaan depresiasi etidak ningkat. nasional, inflasi uang dapat adalah m yang Hdan e adisusun m lka ini positif iselisih diukur liki ekspor karena hubungan sebagai yaitu suku dengan akan sebagai bunga bila fungsi m yang survey e terjadi ningkat. akibat antara negatif dari biaya peningkatan apresiasi dom capital, dengan hidup estik labor rupiah, (suku dan cost dan inves of harga bu to m a tn aka ga, l factor yang barang nam productivity berarti u nim p opsitif orakan seb mterhad eanjadi gterjadi a imarelatif apnpa peningkatan etercan ndlebih a p attan ummudd rah kapasitas aanlam inflasi. (in terms b u k uA produksi of tek prupiah) abila s m a.su kSem akibat rkouek bu eo ntara nnm oga m eningkatnya ihubungan naik . O leh mkaaka ren s antara itu, m a osy dal dalam a rak dan pend apenelitian tselanjutnya cen a patan d erudno ini gmudapat e persam nstik tu k d mm eea ngan e nan ningkatkan a bsisi uim n gpenaw pseh or ad in g penaw aglah ran a ppositif, ediestim rm a ran in t aan agregat. yaitu a siusehingga abila n g ak pend a nm tu aerpatan rupakan u n . Sed Ind afun o n m eningkat bila dari pendapatan harga dan m a ka investasi. naik perm m aintaan ka perm imintaan p or akan uang juga naik mseiring eningkat. dengan m eningkatnya transaksi p en g elu a ran . Sem en t ara itu , p erm in t aan u a n g ju g a d ip en g aru h i oleh in flasi yaitu bila in naik m a ka orang akan lebih cenderung m em egang uang dari pada m enyim pannya dalam sistem p erban k an , seh in g ga n a ikn ya in flasi m en g akibatk an p erm in taan u an g akan m en
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m em uPeningkatan persam pengaruh searah tukar. askan terhadap a andomestic nilai dengan tukar nilai credit pend arah tukar. dan ditentukan a patan yang aliran Sesuai sesuai akan moleh odengan dal mhipotesa end asing. domestic o rong pendekatan Domestic aw credit peningkatan a l,, m aliran credit eskipun Keynes m mekonsum om dal, pada ibahw likipendapatan hubungan beberapa sai,peningkatan bila ketersed persam yang nasion suku p pendapatan barang struktural ositifbunga dtidak e nm g aakan dan ebertam nmniiliki la laju m i tu e ind bningkatkan ah k inflasi. airkasi sejum d imterjad an lah ab im peningkatan iila nya por terja perm yang d i paselanjutnya esalahan perm n a m bia ntaan, hautokorelasi anakan domestic m a ka m ekenaikan credit ningkatkan yang , mtercerm a kkonsum a excess perm inliqu spad inta ak a n masing valuta akan kecilnya enim nhasil y ebabk bguna ulkan u ji D am n -W tekanan tek em atau a bn iayai abesarnya nkenaikan d im ep rpesiasi orutersebut. harga ji lagged ru p(iah demand residual H (kaul rs ini pull (εt-1 Rpada ). p inflation /NUaSm gilirannya Du)).Sedangkan n, m emnein ngingat g kakan a t. depresiasi Sed me oanyebabk dneglkyang a milai tekanan n digunakan o dal tum k ar e depresiasi m m secara iliki em p hubungan en mg bagi earu ndasar h rupiah. iyang k em ne anegatif, rupakan ik Variabel a n in flasi karena aplikasi lain m eyang lalu sem kaidah ipdigunakan aekin n inteori m g keaningkat tan ekonom adalah h a rg aliran aiinflasi in mpau kro m tyodim adal sederhan n gm a na e am suk berarti hubungannya kom p onen perm imintaan pdengan or yang terhadap nilai tinggi. tukar rupiah Kenaikan adalah akan harga positif. seminput a kin Berdasarkan m ini eningkat selanjutnya yang pendekatan akan padamakhirnya e ngurangi purchasing akan pow m em p erkuat penaw a ran agregat posisi rupiah. sehingga Semakan entara me itu ningkatkan variabel suku harga bunga (costmpush em iinflation liki hubungan ). nega dengan nilai tukar, dim a na kenaikan suku bunga m em b erikan pengaruh apresiasi nilai tukar m elalui penurunan perm intaan uang.
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sem m persam engingat nghasilkan inimaaan lm data nilai ungkin arah yang tukar dihindari. koefisien digunakan adalah penerapan U yang padalah ayasesu m edata nghindari akebijakan i d elevel, nganupaya dengan hip nilai o tesa koreksi tukar kata awm lain a tersebut el,ngam ddata a n dbyang e m ang ngan a sih terkendali. digunakan dapat R2 yang cu ditolerir, tidak Sebagaim tinggi ditransform yaitu maena ngingat 95% diketahui, .a Hsikan akoefisien sil estim terlebih dalam estim a sikebijakan m dahulu e am si p pada erlihatkan dalam nilai persam bentuk tukar bahw a an mlainnya e yang ngam a variabel mb seperti eang ngandung pendapatan terkendali pertum autokorelasi b uhan otoritas sangat dan akan n m signifikan io lai neter ptetap eruakan btidak dalam ah a“m nbias . Sebag m engarahkan” edan m paengaruhi m imaasih n akonstisten pergerakan d ikkonsum em u k akendati ksainilai n sektor Gutukar jarati pada sw a kepada (1997), sisi stalain dengan salah satu autokorelasi arah satu marginal guna p eakan npropensity ym ebab enciptakan terjad to m enyebabkan autokorelasi nilai tukar riilini yang koefisien adalah stabil. penggunaan estim Bank a sisentral m enjadi data akan variabel tidak mefisien elakukan ekonomi (varians intervensi yang tidak sebagian di m ipasar nimbesar um valas ) (Gupada jarati, saa 1997tukar berkarakteristik nilai hal 410). berada san di g luar at kaku rentang terhyang a d a p“dikehendaki”. p eru b ah a n w a ktu Berdasarkan (in ertia). Odata leh karen yang a“sem itu pua“d a sa dilakukan tersebu t, m uji a ka regresi d a p adengan t d im enm g erti enggunakan terjad in ydata a au tderet okorelasi w a ktu, p a dmaapka ersam errorayang an n ilai didapat tu k ar sel akan p eriod meeobserv nunjukkan a si. terjadinya hubungan yang saling terkait dengan error m a sa lalu.
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n aesion m benar secara sk ip dengan asignifikan. ul nad maelah m signifikansi ilik k in Besarnya i tan erjadim apengaruh kpoor efisien peranan p eriod parsial y ae impor nseb g sesu yang elu dan ami cukup n dpemasukan y ea. n gSem an tinggi, he ipnottesa ara kecuali modal fak awbersih tpada aor l, n ialai variabel m dalam u tunkelastisita ar,suku ya dan bunga. m en mpengaruh jad pengaruhi Suku i p en bunga, d oron parsialnya investasi gm de askipun ya sain mkurang e ngindikasikan m g ,ehm ab n signifikan. erikan y a m em tanda bahw b erikan koefisien a investasi kon t ribu yang yang sisesuai yanterjadi g relatif dengan dilebih Indonesia hipotesa kecil. awi a sebagian in bisa l, n am mebesar unnjelaskan h anbersum ya mbah enb gw er haadari silk kin e aexternal rja n ela eksp stisita finance o r kita s ydan a nbelu gm rela em mtm iifliki k em ecil hubungan u askan seh in gkaren ga yang koa n tdbesar rib epursi esiasi denga p eruru su im y ak npu g or. b tajam uKnognd atelah tid isiaini km bsem aennyyak a eb kin m a bem km an epm en an pg erkuat jlo aru k nhyiain dim u v gaan estasi p or . K bahw (in eterk v estasi aainvestasi itan inyealastis n gderat i Ind terh an oanesia d tara a p su im akan kpuobrsa rentan eksp or terhadap m en g akibatkan externaleksp shockoterutam r belu mamyang em b aik terkait selam dengan a im p or imm p or a sih dan m ealiran n u ru nm . o dal.
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dengan sa Sebagaim n gat m hipotesa en ae na n tterlihat u kaw anapledengan rm pada in tnegara-negara aatingkat n im posignifikasi r . Relatberkem if b eyang sar n by cukup ang a ela lainnya, stinggi. tisita s pengaruh pHeansil d apersam patapendapatan n maean n un j kecen nasional ini m ed meru pterhadap erlihatkan n ga n ad aperm nbahw ya demonstration intaan a m eningkatnya uang effect lebih d im penaw elastis a n a ke ain ran dibandingkan gin agregat an m enakan g ko pengaruh nsangat su msi bdipengaruhi asuku ran gbunga - ba ra imapl or H oleh peningkatan ini akan m asem sih m a kin einvestasi ngim m eningkat plikasikan tahun seiring sebelum kuatnya dengan n ya. pengaruh Sem peningkatan entara m o tif itu, pendapatan. transaksi pada persam dalam Selanjutnya a an perm investasi intaan dar perhitungan uang diketahui Indonesia. bahw income a investasi elasticity dom of import estik diketahui dipengaruhi sebesar oleh 1.36. besarnya Perekonom aliran im an o dal. dalam Berdasarkan tahap pem b angunan transm isi ini secara yang tidak lebih langsung tinggi idealnya m engim m epmlikasikan iliki income bahw elastiacisisi ty ofpenaw import sekitar a ran nasional 1. H a sil p erhitu juga dipengaruhi ngan m o doleh el m ealiran nu njum k kan o dalbahw asing. a import Bilampenetration a na aliran p em rekonom o dal asing ian m Ind eningkat o nesia m maasih ka tinagng iterjad ak y a n g berarti i p en in gbah k a lan w a sto setiap k m o1% d ap l,eynainnggselan k a tanjuptennydaap akaatan n mak am an pu d im ikeuntiinoleh g k a tan p enkinag pka im port yang lebih besar dari 1%. Tem uan ini sem a kin m em perkuat dugaan bahw a im por m em iliki keterkaitan yang dalam perekonom ian dim a na setiap kali terjadi peningkatan pendapatan cenderung diikuti oleh peningkatan im p or yang lebih besar.
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u ji sen aliran yang kuat m sitiv o dal terhadap itas mdee mnpgperkem unyai an m epengaruh nb erap angan kanharga. yang satu skuat hTingginya ock kterhadap e d a lam fluktuasi mnilai od el. tukar nilai U ji intukar rupiah. i bergyang un Daibandingka udalam n tu k m hal v airia in reaksi m ebw e variabel ladomestic k ili sisidalam credit p en ase w mrao ta ran del v a(dari m ria eb meb tanda lk erik ebia ja positif nkdaanm suatau pkak ub ynegatif) u a n g aleb , miakibat a hkkaubat esa d shock ib r naynad satu p inegnkvariabel gaanr u ph eru va NFA pada ek so g sekali sisi en .perm Selain lagiintaan m itu e ngindikasikan , hyang a sil pdiw en gaukili jian kuatnya oleh in i ju pendapatan. gpengaruh a d a p a t m epergerakan Hmab l ini erik lebih a n indana lanjut fo r masing am sieten ngindikasikan dalam tan g b a g m em paengaruhi bahw pengaruh sisispenaw hock tersebut nilai a ran tukar mterhadap elalu rupiah. i imported perilaku O leh inflation karena variabel sangat itu,di perubahan ddalam om inan mm oekspektasi del, em pkhususnya engaru asing hi laju berkaitan terhada inflasi prospek Ind dengan o nesia. berapa perekonom lam a iw an a ktu yang pengaruh selanjutnya shock diikuti terjadi, dengan seberapa perubahan besar pengaruh besarnya shaliran ock, dan m asing b erap aakan lam asangat w a ktu ym an em g dpiengaruhi butu h ka n u pergerakan n tu k kem bali nilai p a dtukar a keseim rupiah. ban gan jan gka p a n jan
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yang m e om d abtelah lerikan keluar diuji dam terhad pada paka bagian yang p variabel cukup 4. Sem ekonom panjang entarai m itu terhadap a variabel kro. U jvariabel i sensitivitas yang diberikan ekonom ini m ism heock ngasum a kro. adalah Bila sikan em secara pat terj variabel aliran “arbitrary” odal eksogen keluar disepakati yaitu bersih aliran bahw sebesar amjangka o dal 50% bersih, wdibandingkan a ktusuku satubunga, shock data terhadap domestic aktual credit satu pada dan variabel periode pengeluaran m1990:04. elebihi 10 D pem hasil p eriod epengujian rintah. e (2,5 tah Keem u (Tnap )bel d atikategorikan variabel 2) d a patini d idsim sebagai iberikan p ulkan dsahbahw m ock pd ak ea ngan paliran ermbesaran a nm en o,dm a ltertentu aasing ka terlih sangat hanya a t bah berpengar pad w aadsatu am p eriodm terhadap aliran ey oa dal perekonomian ituterhadap 1990:04. kondisi A lnasional. asan m ekonom emTerjadinya ilih ipm erio a kro d ealiran m ineim k abren modal erikan a p akeluar dam da pe prio ak bersih d perm e terseb akan a nen. u t Seluruh aliran m bersih m variabel engakibatkan makan en u nkem ju knilai kan b alian tukar kepada g ka tertin me keseim lem g gi a hsetelah btajam angan, d inflasi jangka iterapm kpanjangnya an elam d eb regu unglasi tinggi. berada keu aPD di n gatas B an terkontraksi 1988 10 periode sebelu kem begitu (G r afik b ali dalam 2m de an nurun ,Tabel konsum berkaitan 2).si dan investasi d engan pengend m elam ba atlian serta perm anjloknya intaan dim om por estik yang (Gkem r afikudian 1). d iiringi oleh m elam b atnya eksp o r.
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Padatukar. berd nilai asatu sarkan sisi M ealiran m lem oda ehnya lm yan o dal gnilai dkeluar igutukar n akan berarti yang sankem g secara at terkait udian langsung diikuti d en g an m dengan enngurangi ilai tu anjloknya k ar.proses M en iim nakselera gpkatn or tela m o dal m berdam dalam keluar peak lakukan pada akan perkem investasi. m e ngakibatkan b angan Padavariabel sisi mlain e leminvestasi lainnya. a hnya nilai Ekspor juga rupiah. myang engalam Dsem im uippenurunan lai at dari m e ngalam m e lem akibat i a hny ruep p dam nia ip nh ak gin k tidak aitan m akplangsung aavdaaria d ubaep ldan eekrio on mdoeem nurunnya di im maukkraoak aim kia bp n aor tdm eakibat neglem an ce am hpn ealem ytamne ailai n hnya ga tulaknilai m ar, i pterlih etukar. ru bah tDa pen angan .dM a sisi beriku k on d pisi erm t ninyiin a, tm aaa en k na g mseb alam en gaagilp aaiem ak niupiru beanntuan aliran ru.nHaanlm ain k oiib dteru aaltkbe team lu rkau ar,ra berkaitan innvgestasi n ya likm dueeid nngigta an alam s besarn p ere i dk ao my np aoak m kan ia k inflasi im yang p orpaling akan dalam tetap dalam ekspor m dibandingkan e ningkat nasional. seiring variabel denganlainnya terkontraksinya (Tabel 2).sisi penaw a ran. Sem a m a halnya biaya produksi barang yang berkandungan im por tinggi akibat lem a hnya ni tukar telah m engurangi insentif m elakukan prod u ksi.
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Peb Indonesia, k respon rtam ijakakebijakan ank,ebn hanya aaikikkaenb ekonom m su ijak ek rupakan u an bu m inm ognaaekro pem d ter om yang m ie cu astik uuntuk pditem um nekm eterjadinya p bbuh ierik jakpada aannfisk arah saat krisis a l.nB terjadi eegsarn yang a tif yterh over alebih shhao eati dck dalam ang py aselu pada n g.drPada u iaw tera h kepercayaan untuk dekade ekonom m1990 a im sing-m a kro dan investor d a sing ikrisis m a na variabel asing ekonom perekonom mkebijakan einurun m uian lai nasional dan pertengahan adalah kemsebesar u mdian engalam tahun diikuti 25%i1997. .kontraksi, Ddengan a ri sisi Seperti kebijakan pelarian nilai telah tukar m m diutara oo m neter dal, engm kinerja shock pada bagian yang ekonomi terjadi II, kebijakan nasional adalah kenaikan akan m o neter dengan suku yang bunga cepat ditem dom menurun p uh estik untuk dan dengan kedua kontraksi berbagai kondisi domtersebut eimplikasi stik kredit. lanjutannya, S adalah em entm arealakukan d arsebagaim i sisi kkontraksi ebijaakna an fi yang m skoaneter l,terjadi sh ock baik yasaat nsecara g teini. rjadkuantitas i ad alah p em nuarupun u nanm p eenlalui gelum areakanis n pe suku bunga, sem e ntara dari sisi fiskal kebijakan yang ditem p uh untuk kedua kondisi perekonom ian di atas adalah dengan m elakukan kontraksi pengeluaran pem erintah
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aw suku variabel o leh a l.pbunga Pert en u ekonom am ruterhadap n a ,an berbagai pi dan en gperekonom elu bila kebijakan adibandingkan ran p eim an e ekonom rin hanya tah dengan bersifat ju im ga kro m pengaruh esem m yang berik entara ditem asuku n pdengan e pn bunga, uh g aru baik rata-rata h besaran-besaran yberupa a n g n esetelah g kebijakan a tif terh 3 periode pengaruh kond fiskal isi mpaakan e upun rekonom domestic kem m ocredit neter biali an terlihat (T lagi terlihat a bel pada 5). relatif hanya N keseim a mlebih um nb d aangannya. m ebesar m piukian, m(Tabel embila p engaruhi d 4). iband Sebagaim ingkan nilai tukar ashock na pengaruh d akebijakan n inflasi suku dda bunga, sisi periode m ondomestic yang eter m sangat a credit ka besaran juga singkat m epme(G b nerikan g r afik aru h3). kebijakan tekanan Ke ndati kontraksi fiskal sem pat relatif m kepada enguat, besar. perekonom posisi Sed a nnilai g kan iantukar jan m eg lalui ka pada w p en g periode ua ru runberikutnya han teprleih rm atin ba takan aan h wadsdengan oifa mtesstik, h occepat ksem umu ekem n mtn ara ybaali sektor p em rm e lem an ekstern en a h. keD cue aa m l li relatif ikian terh apula kecil dap in halnya terp flasei n ddengan g aaru n n ih la sisi lain nilai tukar m engalam i apresiasi dan inflasi m engalam i penurunan. Selanjutnya jangka w a ktu pengaruh domestic credit terlihat bervariasi. Berbeda dengan pengaruh suku bunga, pengaruh kontraksi domestic credit terhadap PD B terlihat lebih bersifat perm a nen, sedangkan pengaruh terhadap inflasi dan nilai tukar terlihat hanya bersifat tem p orer.
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keluar d eng anm da upun m p akshock p erm akebijakan nen bila d isecara ba nd ing parsial, ka n kebm ijak a ka a nbagian m oneter initerh akan a dm a pep ncoba erkemmbean lihat g an p erekisi kond onekonom om ian niam sio a kro n al (G bilam r afika3). na Leb kediuhalan shock ju t ko ini n ddisi igabu in i mneg. n gPgeanggabu m barkanngan ba hshock wa k ebini ijak p fisk a l terlih dasarnya maetrupakan lebih d om gam in a n b aran d a lam dari m erespon m p en g aru kebijakan h i sisi p e yang rm inditem t aan dpiuh banselam din g kaebijak m a saakrisi n m o neter. Bila dikaitkan dengan hasil pengujian persam a an struktural, hal ini antara lain ditunjukkan oleh kurang sensitifnya perm intaan uang pada saat terjadi perubahan suku bun g a, seh in g ga lebih lan ju t berarti keseim b an g an p a sar u a n g m en jad i san g at elastis (kurv LM relatif d a tar d iban din gka n kurva IS). Ak ibat elastisn ya kurva LM ter sebu t m aka m eskip telah d ilaku k an kebijakan m oneter yang d am pakny a akan m eng u bah keseim b an gan d i p a sa uang, nam un output (Y) yang terjadi tidak akan banyak berubah pada saat terjadi interaksi dengan kurva IS yang m e ncerm inkan keseim b angan pasar barang. Berdasarkan perilaku ini m a ka im plikasi yang dapat ditarik adalah kebijakan fiskal akan lebih kuat dan efektif d a lam m em p en g aru h i ou t p u t.
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kom yang h direspon a rgpakem onen d endengan ugdian PD an B tetap direspon mkebijakan engalam m en ddengan oirpenurunan ekonom on g ak kebijakan t iv im itas adkro ep ngan ekontraktif yang rekcepat. onkontraktif om iH di anasisi .nya Sebaik cara fiskal d a lam dari leb dan tiga ihsisi sp m period oefiskal neter. sifik targ m eDPD aaupun ri eBt tel sta gam d m terkontraksi aopnab etaran ter d iejaw terlih bagian sebesar a nattah telah ini, k an 8,6% selanjutnya m da elam n(Tabel y ebabkan b en6). tdiharapkan u kAu terken ppresiasi ay a m d alin akan eyang red y adidapatkan begitu m n ig lai ejo tulcepat ak k arnsatu d ilai apada ntu laju alternatif k ar nilai indfalasi. tukar nm kom B en ila telah gben pinas a kebijakan laju terjadi berdam inflasi, aliran p ak relevan m sem m enurunnya oedal ntara guna keluar m pada ekspor, encapai nilai sisi tukar sem lain target em aktifitas ntara etertentu njadi imterdepresiasi pperekonom or dimtengah engalam ikondisi an yang i peningkatan tetap lebih m berjalan. eningkatnya lanjut kem berdam b ali, aliran ya m od am pada selanjutnya l kelu elonjaknya am r. enurunkan inflasi,konsum m a ka dengan si dan investasi diterapkannya nasional. kebijakan Kendati kontraktif m engalam inii kontrak nilai tuk rupiah m enguat sem entara inflasi m enurun.
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Kebijakan A Kebijakan B
Kebijakan A Kebijakan B
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p erek durasi pem ikiran opengaruh. n o mperlunya ian y a nAgdpenerapan terjad anya kebijakan i tid akebijakan k sedkontraktif a lamekonom b ila dini ibiam akan na dkro in gdengan kyang an d m ilak segera a sih u k amnam km eeb pngem iujak me and nbk alikan ooron n perilaku perekonom pada kedua variabel ikebijakan. an nam ekonom un pada Bilaipada sisi m a kro lain skenario pada tetapkeseim m pertam a m pubm a angan kontraksi e redam jangka depresiasi perekonom panjangnya. rupiah ian yang D dan a riterjadi hasil pengujian m ad eangendalikan lah sebesar m em8,6% laju p erlihatkan inflasi. , m a ka d Salah kebijakan engan satu tetap altem kontraktif m ea ngupayakan tif kebijakan m engem ekspansi yang b alikan adapad adalah pada a sisi perilaku dengan fiskal kontra jangk tetap panjang m yang e lakukan terjadi rata-rata ekspansi hanya sebesar setelah fiskal,5,7% 3sem periode e(Tabel ntara(G pada 7). r afik Kosisi ndisi 4).lain perekonom kebijakakan ianm yang o neter lebih dilakukan baik ini bila k on tra k dilihat dari si. Skom k enp a rio onennya in i b erd sangat a sa r kterkait a n p a ddengan a h a sil pm en eg ningkatnya u jia n sen sitiv perm itaisntaan v aria b dom el ek estik. on om terh a d a p kebijakan m a kro d im a n a terd a p a t in d ikasi bah w a kebijakan fiskal relatif berp d a lam perekonom ian nasional d iband ingkan kebijakan m o neter d a lam m end o rong outp p erek on om ian .
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Kondisi dan Respon Kebijak an E k onomi M ak ro selama Krisis E k onomi tahun 1997-98 123
Ko nsum si dan investasi m e skipun juga terkontraksi, nam u n penurunan yang terjadi tid sedalam bilam a na kebijakan yang ditem p uh adalah kontraksi pada dua bidang terseb Me m p erhatikan respon variabel ekonom i terhadap kebijakan ekonom i ditengah
Respon kebijakan m a kro ekonom i ini, terutam a kebijakan fiskal yang ekspansif,
Sedangkan McKibbin dengan m e nggunakan CGE m o del pada kasus Thailand
VI. Pengujian Out of Sample (Ex-Ante Simulation) 6.1. Konsistensi Persamaan
Seb elu m m en g am b il im plik a si leb ih jau h , p ersam a an ak a n d iu ji terleb ih d a h ulu d a lam
D e ngan m e nggunakan periode 1997:03 - 1998:02 pengujian -baik secara statistik
6.2. Simulasi Counterfactual
Seperti diuraikan pada bagian latar belakang bahw a salah satu tujuan penelitian adalah m e ncoba m e lihat kem u ngkinan penerapan kebijakan ekonom i m a kro lain yan
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124
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
Tabel 8 Rangkuman Nilai Statistik Hasil Simulasi Ex-Ante (1997:03 - 1998:02)
Variabel
RMSPE(%)
Ind e ks H a rga Ko nsu m en Pr od u k Do m estik Br u to Ko nsum si Sw a sta Investasi Ek sp or Im p or Ku rs Rp . N o m inal
0.49 0.13 0.25 0.08 0.17 0.34 0.73
MPE(%) -0.48 -0.11 -0.25 0.05 -0.16 -0.25 -0.72
Keterangan : RM SPE = Root M e an Square Parcent Error ; M P E = M e an Percent Error
berbeda dengan yang telah ditem p uh. D a lam kaitan tersebut, m a ka cara analisa yang
Variabel kebijakan yang diubah dalam sim ulasi counterfactual adalah variabel suku
Sebagaim a na disebutkan sebelum n ya bahw a perkem b angan aktual kebijakan suk
M em perhatikan kebijakan aktual tersebut, m a ka sim ulasi counterfactual aw a l yang
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Kondisi dan Respon Kebijak an E k onomi M ak ro selama Krisis E k onomi tahun 1997-98 125
H a sil sim u lasi counterfactual aw a l ini m enghasilkan beberapa indikasi aw a l. Pertam a
Tabel 9 Sensitivitas Variabel Ekonomi Makro 1 Skenario Counter Factual 1997:3 - 1998:2
Variab el
Shock
Ind e ks H a rga Ko nsu m en Pr od u k Do m estik Br u t o Ko nsum si Sw a sta Investasi Ek sp or Im p or Ku rs Rp . N o m inal
Su k u Bu nga Ko nsu m si D o m estik 2 Pem e rin t ah (KP )3 -3,6 -9,6 -1,5 -6,4 -6,5 -15,6 -5,4
-0,1 2,2 -0,2 1,5 0.2 1,5 -0.1
Keterangan : 1 = Dihitung berdasarkan error kum u latif dari hasil nilai sim u lasi dasar 2 = Suku bunga domestik telah meningkat sejak 1997:3 dan konstanpada level 32,95%
3 = Konsum s i Pem e rintah m e ningkat sebesar 10% sejak 1997:3 dan konstan pada tahap berikutny
Kedua , ap a b ila d iterap k an k eb ijak a n p en in g k a tan p en g elu a ran k o n s u m si p em e rin t ah
sebesar 10% p a d a triw u lan III/ 97 u n tu k kem u d ian d ip ertah a n k an p a d a p eriod e beriku t
Berdasarkan kedua kondisi tersebut, m a ka kebijakan dasar yang dapat ditem puh
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126
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
6.3. Kombinasi Kebijakan untuk Mempercepat Pemulihan Ekonomi
D engan hasil kebijakan d a sar counter factual bagian 6.2 (kebijakan m o neter kontrakt
Tabel 10 Skenario Kombinasi Kebijakan Counter Factual Period e 197:03 - 1998:02
Sken a rio Kebijakan A
B
C
Variabel Period e Kebijakan III-1997 IV-1997 I-1998
Suku Bunga 26,22 Pengeluaran Pe m erin t ah 7554 Suku Bunga 26,22 Pengeluaran Pe m erin t ah 7554 Suku Bunga 26,22 Pengeluaran Pe m erin t ah 7554
II-1998
28,00
30,00
32,00
8787 32,95
8787 32,95
8787 32,95
8787 28,00
9666 30,00
10632 32,00
8787
9666
10632
Ko m b inasi yang dilakukan tersebut secara um u m adalah sebagai berikut: Skenario A : Suku bunga dinaikkan secara bertahap setiap periode sem e ntarapengeluaran pem e rintah tetap konstan sejak triw u lan IV-97. Skenario B : Suku bunga telah tinggi dan konstan sejak triw u lan IV-97. sem e pengeluaran pem e rintah setiap triw u lan naik secara bertahap 10%. Skenario C : Suku bunga dan pengeluaran pem e rintah naik secara setiap period Dari berbagai kom b inasi kebijakan ekonom i m a kro yang ada, hasil pengujian
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Kondisi dan Respon Kebijak an E k onomi M ak ro selama Krisis E k onomi tahun 1997-98 127
k a itan in i ek sp a n si d a ri sisi fisk a l m en jad i p en d or on g m en in g k a tn y a k em b ali p erm in t aan d o m e stik seb a g a im a n a tercerm in d a ri leb ih tin g g in y a tin g k a t k o n su m si d a n in v estasi. Tabel 11 Sensitivitas Variabel Ekonomi Makro Kebijakan Counter Factual 1997:3 - 1998:2
Variabel Ek o n o m i M a k r o
Sken a rio Ke bijakan Keb ijak a n A Keb ijak a n B Keb ijak a n C
Ind e ks H a rga Ko nsu m en Pr od u k Do m estik Br u to Ko nsum si Sw a sta Investasi Eksp o r Im p or Ku rs Rp . N o m inal
-1,5 2,1 0,0 1,9 -3,1 -2,2 -1,0
-3,3 1,2 -0,7 2,2 -6,4 -7,5 -4,2
-1,4 6,5 0,3 5,4 3,6 1,0 -0,6
Akhirnya, hasil simulasi skenario kebijakan untuk mempercepat pemulihan
Sem entara itu dari sisi fiskal, kebijakan yang seharusnya diterapkan adalah dengan
VII. Kesimpulan Implikasi Kebijakan 7.1. Kesimpulan
Bertolak dari hasil-hasil perhitungan serta berbagai indikasi yang m e ngikutiny beberapa kesim p ulan yang dapat ditarik pada penelitian ini adalah : 1. Perekonom ian Indonesia sangat rentan terhadap dam p ak aliran m o dal keluar karena
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128
Buletin E k onomi Moneter dan Perbank an, September 1999
besa r , k on d isi p erek on om ia n n a sion a l d en g a n cep a t m em b u r u k . O leh k a ren a itu contagion effect dari krisis keuangan di Thailand hanya m e rupakan “pem b uka jalan” m e nuju kondisi yang lebih buruk.
2. Bila tidak dibarengi dengan kebijakan ekonom im a kro yang tepat, aliran m o dal keluar
3. Pilihan kom b inasi kebijakan ekonom i m a kro yang diterapkan Pem e rintah deng prioritas utam a pada stabilisasi nilai tukar dan m e redam gejolak inflasi m e m b eri trade off yang cukup berat bagi perekonom ian berupa kontraksi yang dalam . D a lam pada itu, penelitian membuktikan bahwa kebijakan fiskal dan moneter dalam
4. Kebijakan ekon om im a kro yan gd iterap k an Pem erin tah selam ap eriod e1997:03 - 1998:02
7.2. Implikasi Kebijakan
Sejalan dengan kesim p ulan di atas m a ka terdapat beberapa im p likasi kebija sebagai beriku t : 1. G u n a m en g h in d ari d a m p ak n egatif aliran m od a l asin g , d a lam jan g ka p en d ek kebijak
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Kondisi dan Respon Kebijak an E k onomi M ak ro selama Krisis E k onomi tahun 1997-98 129
.2. P en tin gn ya v a riab el n ilai tu k ar d a lam p erek on om ian In d on esia m en gin d ik a sik a n b a
3. Mengingat hasil pengujian m em p erlihatkan bahw akebijakan suku bunga hanya akan
4. Sem entara itu ,gu n a m engu r angi terjad inya kontraksi yang lebih d a lam ,kebijakan fiskal
VIII. Saran Bagi Penelitian Lanjutan
Beranjak dari hasil pengujian, secara keseluruhan model yang digunakan
Da lam kaitan itu, m a ka pada penelitian selanjutnya upaya penyem p urnaan lebih
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130
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Daftar Pustaka
A h m e d, Sadiq, A ppropriate M acroeconomic M anagement in Indonesia’s Open Economi, W o rld Bank D iscussion Papers N o . 191, 1993 Ba sri, M . Ch atib d a n A r i Ku n coro, Tinjauan Triwulan Perekonomian Indonesia, Ekon o m i Ke uangan Ind onesia Vol. XLVI, N o .2, 1998 Bank Indonesia, Laporan Tahunan 1997/1998, A p ril 1998 ____________, Gejolak N ilai Tukar dan Implikasinya Bagi Pelaksanaan Tugas Pokok Bank Indonesia di M asa M endatang, M a kalah pada Ra pat Ke rja Bank Indonesia, D e sem b er 1997 ____________, A rah Kebijakan M oneter unluk Pemulihan Ekonomi, M a kalah pada Ra pat Ke rja Ba nk Ind o nesia, N o vem b er 1998. Gu jarati, D a m o dar N , Basic Econometrics, M cGr aw -H ill, 3rd ed ition, 1995 G r eenaw a y, D a vid , A Guide to M odem Economics, Ro u t led g e, 1996 H IID , The Composition of Recent Impor Growth, tidak dipublikasikan, 1995 IM F, Reinvigorating growth in developing countries, Lessons from adjustment policies in eight economies, IM F O ccasional paper N o . 139, July 1996. Meyer, Laurence H , Lesson from the A sian Crisis : A Central Banker’s Perspective, Paper
M cKibbin, W a rw ick and W ill M a rtin, The East A sian Crisis : Investigating Causes and Policy Responses, Prelim inary D r aft, 1998 N o p irin , A Synthesis of Monetary and Keynesian A proaches to Balance of Payment A nalysis: 1970-1979, O ccasional Paper, FE-U G M , Juli 1983 Ra chbini, D idik J, A rus M odal Global M ulai N aik Tahun 1999, Ko m p as 22 D e sem b er 1998 Shone, Ro nald , Open Economy M acroeconomic, H a rvester W h eatsheaf, 1989 W o o, W ing Th ye, Br u ce G lassbu r ner, A n w a r N a su t ion, M acroeconomic Policies, Crises,