Una Historia Monetaria y Financiera de La Argentina

UNA HISTORIA MONETARIA Y FINANCIERA DE LA ARGENTINA LAS LECCIONES DEL BICENTENARIO Por Mario Rapoport*

1. LAS DIFICULTADES INICIALES PARA CONSTITUIR UN SISTEMA MONETARIO

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2

UNA HISTORIA MONETARIA Y FINANCIERA DE LA ARGENTINA LAS LECCIONES DEL BICENTENARIO Por Mario Rapoport*

1. LAS DIFICULTADES INICIALES PARA CONSTITUIR UN SISTEMA MONETARIO

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“Frente a la crisis, el gobierno de Ave-  llaneda tomó severas medidas de aus-  teridad   scal. Redujo los gastos para  equilibrarlos con las rentas, bajó los  sueldos de los empleados de la admi-  nistración pública, redujo el plantel y  decidió no recurrir al crédito”.

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6 

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DJURH[SRUWDGRU¿QDOL]yHQ$SDUWLUGHHQWRQFHV ODVHQWUDGDVGHFDSLWDOGLVPLQX\HURQDEUXSWDPHQWH\ HOSDJRGHOVHUYLFLRGHODGHXGDVHYLRGL¿FXOWDGRSRU ORTXHHQPD\RGHHVHDxRVHLQLFLyXQFLFORUHFHVLYR FDUDFWHUL]DGRSRUHOLQFUHPHQWRGHOPRQWRGHODVTXLH EUDVTXHGXSOLFyDOGH\WULSOLFyDOGH 3RUVXSDUWHODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV\ORVPDJURVLQJUHVRV GHFDSLWDOUHVXOWDURQLQVX¿FLHQWHVSDUDKDFHUIUHQWHD ODVLPSRUWDFLRQHV\DORVUXEURVLQYLVLEOHVLQYLUWLpQGRVHHOVLJQRGHOVHFWRUH[WHUQR/DGHWHQFLyQGHOÀXMRGH

Cuadro 2. Importaciones y exportaciones de oro, existencias en la Caja de Conversión y emisión de billetes (1900-1914) HQPLOORQHVGHSHVRVRUR

,PSRUWD ([SRUWD ,PSRUWD ([LVWHQFLD (PLVLyQ (PLVLyQ FLRQHVGH FLRQHVGH FLRQHVGH HQ&DMDGH *DUDQWtD de  potenoro oro oro neta FLDO $xR &RQYHU /HJDO  billetes VLyQDOUR  0LOORQHVGHSHVRV 0LOORQHVGHSHVRVRUR GHGLF  papel               

              

              

              

 —  —  —

—  —  — 

           

           

              

              

(PLVLyQUHDO  SRWHQFLDO               

(Q5DSRSRUW)XHQWH)RUG$OHF*(OSDWUyQRUR,QJODWHUUD\$UJHQWLQD%XHQRV$LUHV&RPLWp *HRJUi¿FR$UJHQWLQR

UDQWtDDODFRQYHUVLyQGHOSDSHOPRQHGDVHIRUPDUtD XQDUHVHUYDPHWiOLFDOODPDGD³IRQGRGHFRQYHUVLyQ´ LQWHJUDGDSRUUHFXUVRVS~EOLFRVGHGLIHUHQWHRULJHQ/D &DMDFRPHQ]yDIXQFLRQDUFRPSOHWDPHQWHHQORVSULPHURVDxRVGHOQXHYRVLJORFXDQGRODVH[SRUWDFLRQHV DUJHQWLQDVGLHURQXQVDOWRFXDQWLWDWLYRIRUPLGDEOHTXH  SHUPLWLyMXQWRFRQODVLQYHUVLRQHVH[WUDQMHUDVJHQHUDU XQDHQWUDGDQHWDSRVLWLYDGHRUR/DHPLVLyQJHQHUD GDIXHPHQRUDODSRWHQFLDO\SHUPLWLyDORVEDQFRV LQFUHPHQWDUVXVUHVHUYDVHQRUR\VXVSUpVWDPRV6LQ HPEDUJRXQKLVWRULDGRUEULWiQLFRFDOL¿FyDOD&DMDOD  SLGDULDPHQWH\FRQFLHUWRKXPRU³>HUD@XQVLVWHPDXOWUDFRQVHUYDGRUGHJHVWLyQPRQHWDULD\¿QDQFLHUDPiV  EULWiQLFRTXHHOEULWiQLFR´ $SDUWLUGHHOLQJUHVRGHRURSRUVXSHUiYLWV FRPHUFLDOHV\SRUHOÀXMRGHFDSLWDOH[WHUQRFRQWULEX\y DXQDPD\RUHPLVLyQFRQODFRQVLJXLHQWHH[SDQVLyQGH ORVQHJRFLRV\GHODVDFWLYLGDGHVHVSHFXODWLYDV(VWH  SHUtRGRGHSURVSHULGDGHOPiVSURORQJDGRGHOPRGHOR

FDSLWDOHVH[WHUQRV\ODIXJDGHORVTXHKDEtDQOOHJDGR DFRUWRSOD]R REOLJyDOJRELHUQR HQDXQDQWHV GHDJRWDUVHODVUHVHUYDVDVXVSHQGHUODFRQYHUWLELOLGDG YLJHQWH GHVGH  'LVWLQWDV FDXVDV RULJLQDURQ HVD QXHYDFULVLVHQWUHODVTXHVHGHVWDFDHOLQFUHPHQWRGH ORVWLSRVGHLQWHUpVGHO%DQFRGH,QJODWHUUDTXHUHYLU WLyHOVLJQRGHOÀXMRGHFDSLWDOHV/D3ULPHUD*XHUUD 0XQGLDODFHOHUyVLQGXGDORVWLHPSRVDOSURYRFDUHQ XQSULQFLSLRODKXtGDUiSLGDGHOFDSLWDOSHURODFULVLV HVWDED\DLQVWDODGD\QRGHSHQGLyH[FOXVLYDPHQWHGHO HVWDOOLGRGHOFRQÀLFWR (QVtQWHVLVODVFRQWLQXDVÀXFWXDFLRQHVGHODPRQHGD FX\RUHVSDOGRFUHFtDFRQODHQWUDGDGHRUR\VHGLOXtD FRQODIXJDGHpOSRFRWHQtDQTXHYHUFRQHOFUHFLPLHQWRRQRGHODHFRQRPtDPLHQWUDVVHDGYHUWtDXQD LQHVWDELOLGDGHFRQyPLFD\¿QDQFLHUDTXHVHKL]RFUyQLFD6LQXQRUJDQLVPRUHJXODGRUGHOVLVWHPDPRQHWDULR ORVFLFORVH[WHUQRVLQÀXtDQHQIRUPDGHWHUPLQDQWHHQ HOFLFORHFRQyPLFRLQWHUQRPHGLDGRSRUODFDQWLGDG

&KDUOHV$-RQHV³%ULWLVK&DSLWDOLQ$UJHQWLQD+LVWRU\6WUXFWXUHV5KHWRULFDQG&KDQJHVHQ$+HQQHVV\\-.LQJ7KH /DQGWKDW(QJODG/RVW%ULWLVK$FDGHPLF3UHVVS 

7 

“Existe un mito de que la Argentina estuvo  alguna vez entre las principales economías  del mundo, algo que no puede demostrar-  se fehacientemente por medio de cifras  porque en esa época no existían cálculos  del producto y del ingreso nacional”.

GHGLQHUR\VXYDORU'HHVWDIRUPDODFRQYHUWLELOL GDGVHLQWHUUXPStDFDGDYH]TXHODHQWUDGDGHFDSLWDOHV H[WHUQRVPHQJXDEDUHVXOWDQGRHQXQDFULVLVGHVHFWRU H[WHUQRVDOYRGXUDQWHODSULPHUDGpFDGDGHOVLJOR\ HQSDUWHGHORVDxRV¶SRUORVLPSRUWDQWHVVDOGRV  SRVLWLYRV GHO FRPHUFLR H[WHULRU DXQTXH HO VHUYLFLR GHODGHXGDUHSUHVHQWDEDXQDSDUWHLPSRUWDQWHGHODV H[SRUWDFLRQHV3HURQRSXGLHURQHYLWDUVHODVFULVLVGH  \ /DUHGXFFLyQGHUHVHUYDVGHPHWDO\PRQHGDH[WUDQMHUDLPSLGLyHQWRGRV HVRVFDVRVPDQWHQHUODFRQYHUWLELOLGDG/DGHYDOXDFLyQ  SURYRFDEDHQIRUPDLQPHGLDWDXQDJXGRDXPHQWRGH  SUHFLRVDYLYDGRSRUODHPLVLyQGHORVEDQFRV\GHO(VWDGRFX\RVLQJUHVRV¿VFDOHVVHUHGXFtDQEUXVFDPHQWH DOHVWDUDWDGRVDODVWUDQVDFFLRQHVFRQHOH[WHULRU$Vt  SRUHMHPSORGHDODFLUFXODFLyQPRQHWDULD VHPXOWLSOLFySRU

3. LOS AÑOS ‘20 Y EL BREVE LAPSO DE CONVERTIBILIDAD

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1935: Creación del Banco Central “Regular la cantidad de crédito y de los medios de pago, adaptándolos a las necesidades de los negocios”

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“Prevalecía el criterio de que la inter-  vención del sector privado en el mane-  jo de la entidad garantizaba la inde-  pendencia de la misma con respecto  al gobierno”.

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11

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los transportes, la construcción y la producción de caucho y metales A partir de 1952, con la nueva orientación de la política económica, también el sector agropecuario comenzó a gozar de mayor facilidad en el acceso al crédito.

Cuadro 4: Creación de medios de pago y precios minoristas, 1945-1955 $xR

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6. CAMBIOS INSTITUCIONALES EN EL PROCESO DE INDUSTRIALIZACIÓN

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“Se   rmó además un convenio con el  Fondo Monetario Internacional   rma-  “El 2 de agosto de 1956, un decreto del  do en abril de 1957 por el ministro de  gobierno del general Aramburu dispu-  Hacienda, Adalbert Krieger Vasena”. so la autarquía del BCRA y comenzó  el proceso de reforma   nanciera cul-  3HURHOSULPHUDFXHUGR6WDQGE\FRQHVDVFRQGLFLRQD - minado en diciembre de 1957. Esta eli-  OLGDGHVVHFRQFUHWyUHFLpQHQGLFLHPEUHGHEDMRHO minó el sistema de nacionalización de  depósitos y la asignación estatal del  JRELHUQRGH)URQGL]L crédito, apuntó a liberalizar el sistema  “Pero el primer acuerdo Stand-by con  nanciero, a restringir la participación esas condicionalidades se concretó re-  de los bancos públicos, y a limitar la  cién en diciembre de 1958 bajo el go-  expansión monetaria basada en el  crédito doméstico”. bierno de Frondizi”. 52ODUUD-LPpQH]RSFLWS

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“Uno de los objetivos del gobierno mi-  litar fue el de detener el crecimiento del  sistema de cooperativas de crédito. ”. “De las mil cooperativas de este tipo  existentes en 1966, cerca de 200 que  pudieron sobrevivir se transformaron,  fusionándose, en 77 bancos cooperati-  vos después de la implementación de  la ley de entidades  nancieras de Mar-  tínez de Hoz, en 1977”.

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“La in ación era de 444% en 1976,  descendió luego a un promedio de  150% entre 1977 y 1982, para subir   nalmente al 333% en 1983. Mientras,  la deuda externa se incrementaba de 8  mil a 45 mil millones de dólares entre  1975 y 1983”. 7UDVODGHUURWDGHODJXHUUDGH0DOYLQDVHOIUDFDVRGHO  SODQHFRQyPLFR\ODWRPDGHFRQFLHQFLDGHODSREODFLyQ DFHUFDGHODVJUDYHVYLRODFLRQHVDORVGHUHFKRVKXPD QRVFRPHWLGRVSRUHVWDGLFWDGXUDODSUHVLyQGHODVRFLH-

Cuadro 6: Activos monetarios en poder del público $xR

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“Los deudores privados recibieron un subsidio indirecto estimado en más de  5.500 millones de dólares”.

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VHLQWHQWyQHJRFLDUGXUDPHQWHDXQTXHVLQp[LWRFRQORV RUJDQLVPRVLQWHUQDFLRQDOHV\VHODQ]yXQSURJUDPDSDUD UHDFWLYDUHOPHUFDGRLQWHUQRGHSULPLGRTXHQRORJUyOD DFHSWDFLyQGHORVJUDQGHVJUXSRVHFRQyPLFRV(VRGLR  SLHSDUDXQDUHHVWUXFWXUDFLyQGHOJDELQHWH\ HOODQ]DPLHQWRGHO3ODQ$XVWUDOFX\RVREMHWLYRVDSXQWDEDQWDQ VyORDTXHEUDUODLQHUFLDLQÀDFLRQDULD\DSDUWLUGHDOOt LQWHQWDUODUHFXSHUDFLyQ6LQHPEDUJRHVWHSODQFRQXQ FDPELRHQHOVLJQRPRQHWDULR±HODXVWUDOHQOXJDUGHO  SHVR\XQDUHODFLyQLQLFLDOPHQWH¿MDQRORJUySDVDUD HVDVHJXQGDHWDSDSXHVODVDOLGDGHOFRQJHODPLHQWRGH  SUHFLRVSODQWHDGRYROYLyDDFHOHUDUOD LQÀDFLyQ/XHJR GHYDULRVUHWRTXHV\FRQXQFRQWH[WRSROtWLFRFDGDYH] PiVGHVIDYRUDEOHVHEXVFyFDVLH[FOXVLYDPHQWHDWHQXDU HO SURFHVR LQÀDFLRQDULR FRQ HO 3ODQ 3ULPDYHUD SHUR WXYRXQDUHVSXHVWDQHJDWLYDSRUSDUWHGHODVFRUSRUDFLRQHVHFRQyPLFDV\HQDQWHVGHODVHOHFFLRQHV HVWDOOyXQDDJXGDFULVLVKLSHULQÀDFLRQDULD 8QRGHORVSUREOHPDVPiVJUDYHVTXHVHGHELyHQIUHQWDUHQORVIXHHOGHODGHXGDH[WHUQD6XHVWDWL]DFLyQLQLFLDGD HQORV WUDPRV¿QDOHV GHOD GLFWDGXUD \ FRPSOHWDGDGXUDQWHHOJRELHUQRGHPRFUiWLFRSURYRFy XQ VHYHUR SUREOHPD ¿VFDO TXH SRU HQWRQFHV UHVXOWy LPSRVLEOHGHUHVROYHU3RURWUDSDUWHODSROtWLFDHFR QyPLFDDGRSWDGDGHVGH¿QHVGH\UHD¿UPDGDSRU 5HDJDQHQ (VWDGRV8QLGRVFRQDOWDVWDVDVGH LQWHUpV FUHDEDDKRUDXQDVLWXDFLyQPX\GLIHUHQWHGHODGHORV µ/DEDQFDSULYDGD\ORVRUJDQLVPRVLQWHUQDFLRQDOHVSUHVLRQDURQSDUDHOSDJRGHODGHXGDREOLJDQGRDO JRELHUQRDEXVFDUVXSHUiYLWVFRPHUFLDOHV\¿VFDOHV(Q HVHFRQWH[WRGHHVWDQFDPLHQWRXQDEDODQ]DFRPHUFLDO  SRVLWLYDVyORSRGtDORJUDUVHDIXHU]DGHODFRQWUDFFLyQ GHOFRQVXPRLQWHUQRSHURHVWRUHGXFtDVXVWDQFLDOPHQWH ODEDVHFRQWULEXWLYD\DJUDYDEDHOGp¿FLW¿VFDO3RUOR WDQWROD HFRQRPtDQDYHJySHUPDQHQWHPHQWH DWUDSDGD HQWUHHVDFRQWUDGLFFLyQODUHFHVLyQODVSUHVLRQHVGHOD  EDQFD\HOUHFKD]RGHORVVHFWRUHVGRPLQDQWHVDFRODERUDUFRQXQDPDWUL]WULEXWDULDGLIHUHQWH6HGHVWDFyODIp UUHDRSRVLFLyQGHOVHFWRUDJURSHFXDULRDODVUHWHQFLRQHV DODVH[SRUWDFLRQHVLPSXHVWDVSRU$OIRQVtQ\DOVLVWHPD GHWLSRVGHFDPELRP~OWLSOHVTXHVHDGRSWyOXHJRGHOD HOLPLQDFLyQGHDTXHOODV

7UDVHOUHVWDEOHFLPLHQWRGHODGHPRFUDFLD\FRQHOREMHWRGHIUHQDUODFULVLVHFRQyPLFDHOSUREOHPDGHOHQGHX GDPLHQWRH[WHUQR\HOSURFHVRLQÀDFLRQDULRGHVHQFDGHQDGRGHVGHPHGLDGRVGHODGpFDGDGHO¶ORVHTXLSRV “Uno de los problemas más graves que  HFRQyPLFRV GH 5D~O $OIRQVtQ HQFDUDURQ GLIHUHQWHV \ se debió enfrentar en los ´80, fue el de  FRQWUDSXHVWDVPHGLGDVGHSROtWLFDHFRQyPLFD3ULPHUR la deuda externa”.

23

“Se destacó la férrea oposición del sec-  HVWRYROYtDDUHSHUFXWLUVREUHHOYROXPHQGHODGHXGDDO tor agropecuario a las retenciones a las  FDSLWDOL]DUVHFUHFLHQWHVPDVDVGHJDQDQFLD¿QDQFLHUDH exportaciones impuestas por Alfonsín”. LQÀXtDVREUHODDFWLYLGDGHFRQyPLFD\DTXHODVWDVDVGH
LQWHUpVGHWRGRHOVLVWHPDVHYHtDQDUUDVWUDGDVSRUHVWH PHFDQLVPR$KRUDELHQODVWDVDVGHLQWHUpVFUHFLHQWHV \ODVGL¿FXOWDGHVHQODRIHUWDHVWLPXODEDQODLQÀDFLyQ  SUHVLRQDQGRRWUDYH]VREUHODVWDVDVGHLQWHUpVQRPLQDOHV(VWHFtUFXORYLFLRVRQRSXGRIUHQDUVH\VHLQLFLy HQWRQFHVXQDIXHUWHIXJDGHFDSLWDOHV/DQXHYDEXUEXMD HVSHFXODWLYDIXHLPSDUDEOHOOHYiQGRVHFRQHOODQRVyOR HOYDORUGHODPRQHGD\HOSRGHUDGTXLVLWLYRVLQRWDP ELpQDOJRELHUQRUDGLFDOTXHSHUGLyODVHOHFFLRQHVHQXQ FOLPDGHFULVLVJHQHUDOL]DGD/DGHXGDH[WHUQDDOFDQ]D EDORVPLOPLOORQHVGHGyODUHV\ ODLQÀDFLyQOOHJyD PiVGHOGHLQFUHPHQWRHQ 8. EL PLAN DE CONVERTIBILIDAD Y LA CRISIS DE 2001.

(QMXOLRGHDVXPLyODSUHVLGHQFLD&DUORV0HQHP LQLFLDQGRXQH[SHULPHQWRHFRQyPLFRFX\DWUD\HFWRULD FXOPLQyFRQRWURJRELHUQRHQOD&DVD5RVDGDHOGH )HUQDQGRGHOD5~D\FRQODSURIXQGDFULVLVGH

*Ui¿FR

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24

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Cuadro 7: Emisiones de cuasimonedas hacia diciembre de 2002. HQPLOORQHVGHSHVRVVHJ~QHQWHHPLVRU  ) Título Emisor Lecop Nación Patacón Buenos Aires Lecor Córdoba Federal Entre Ríos Cecacor Corrientes Bocado Tucumán Quebracho Chaco Boncafor Formosa Petrom Mendoza Bono Público Catamarca /D 5LRMD /D 5LRMD Patacón I -XMX\ Total

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25

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consolidó el frente  scal”.

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29

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