SOAL 1A – HadiSusanto Usulan soal Makro 1 / UAS / 2011 / Hadi Susanto. Pertanyaan:
Dalam jangka pendek, variabel utama yg mempengaruhi bussines cycle yang mengindikasikan gerakan GDP, terutama adalah labor force. a) Jelaskan korelasi antara Unemployment dan GDP riil, mengapa demikian. Dalam kaitan ini, b) Arthur M Okun yang pernah mengajar di Yale University dari 1952-67 telah menciptakan “Hukum Okun”. Berikan rumusnya, jelaskan apa yang dimaksud dan berikan contoh.
In the short-run, the main variable that influenced business cycle that indicates GDP fluctuation, is labor force a.
Explain the correlation between unemployment and real GDP, and why it shows that correlation.
b. In this relation, Arthur M. Okun that had been teaching at the Yale University during 1952-67 has announced “Okun’s Law”. Show the formula, explain what it means and give example.
Jawab: (sumber: Mankiw 7th ed/p.260-263; Mankiw 6th ed. Erlangga/p.248-252)
a). Dalam jangka pendek, bukan kapasitas output nasional [Y = f(K, L, T)] yang menentukan besarnya output, melainkan jumlah angkatan kerja yang berkarya. Semakin besar bagian dari Labor force yang bekerja , semakin kecil unemployment , semakin besar output. Jadi, korelasi antara Unemployment dan GDP adalah negatip.
b). Pertumbuhan GDP riil (%) = a% - 2 x (perubahan pertumbuhan unemployment ). ). Pada edisi 6, Mankiw menyebut a% = 3,5 (dg data USA 1970-2005); pada edisi 7: a% a% = 3% (dg data data USA 1970-2008). Saya sarankan jawaban manapun bisa dianggap benar. Menurut Mankiw 3% atau 3,5% adalah hasil perhitungan jika digunakan Y = f (K, L, T), atau pendekatan jangka panjang. Pada jangka pendek, jika hanya L yg digunakan sbg explatatory Variable, harus direvisi dg: minus (2 x perubahan unemployment, dlm %). Contoh:
jika unemployment meningkat dari 5% menjadi 6,25%, maka
Growth GDP riil = 3,0% - 2 x ( 5,0% – 6,25%) = +0,50%.
SOAL 2A –Telisa AD I : BUILDING IS-LM MODEL ENGLISH
Suppose that one country/economy have the following equations: Goods market
= 0.5 (1 − ) = 0.2 = 1000 − 90 = 800 Money market = 0.2 − 60 Money supply= 540 Notes: in percent (if = 3, it means that is 3 percent) Rounding off the number to simplify calculation. Based on the information a.
Find the equilibrium of the goods market to observe the relationship of Y and r on this market. Draw a curve based on equilibrium in the goods market.
b. Find the equilibrium of the money market to observe the relationship of Y and r on this market. Draw a curve based on equilibrium in the money market. c.
Find the equilibrium in goods and money markets, namely for Y * and r *
d. Draw the derivation of AD curve, if it assumed an increase in price (P) JAWABAN BAGIAN A Fungsi IS: Keseimbangan di PasarBarang
=++ = 0.5(1 − 0.2) + 1000 − 90 + 800 = 0.5(0.8) + 1800 − 90 − 0.4 = 1800 − 90 0.6 = 1800 − 90 = 3000 − 150sehinggamendapatkanY = f(r) IS
kurva
IS
Hasil konsisten dan reliable, karena dY/dr pada IS negative IS downward sloping Y dan r di pasarbarangmemilikihubungannegatif r
BAGIAN B Fungsi LM: Keseimbangan di PasarUang
(M/P) = f(r,Y) YLM = F(r) Asumsi: karenanilai P tidakdiketahui, makapenyelesainpersamaan LM langsungmemasukkanMs
= 0.2 − 60 540 = 0.2 − 60 0.2 = 540 + 60 = 2700 + 300
Hasilkonsistendan reliable, karenadY/drpada LM positif LM upward sloping Y dan r di pasarbarangmemilikihubunganpositif LM
r
BAGIAN C
Keseimbangan di pasaruangdanbarang untukmenemukannilai Y* dan r* Dimana
= 3000 − 150
Untuk mendapatkan Y, maka:
= 2700 + 300
= 2700 + 300 = 3000 − 150 = 2700 + 300 450 = 300 = 0.67
= 2700 + 300(0.67) = 2700 + 200 = 2900 Sehinggakeseimbangan di pasaruangdanbarang:
∗ = 2900 ∗ = 0.67
LM
r
∗ = .
∗ = BAGIAN D
Penurunankurva AD jikadiasumsikanterjadipeningkatanharga (P)
1
1
0
1
0
0
1 0
1
0
SOAL 3 A - Padang English Answer the following questions based on the assumption that Indonesia is a c losed economy: a.
The government of Indonesia still commits to implement expansionary fiscal policy during fiscal year of 1 April 2011-31 March 2012 despite being strongly criticized by such m ultilateral institutions as World Bank, Asia Development Bank, and International Monetary Fund. Consequently, how will the expansionary fiscal policy theoretically impact the equilibrium on goods and money market?
b. After being strongly criticized by parliament members and many small-medium sized entrepreneurs, eventually Bank Indonesia compromises to cut interest r ate. Theoretically, what should Bank Indonesia do to accommodate those small-medium sized entrepreneurs ’ demand and how will this have an effect on goods and money market equilibrium?
c.
Regarding the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy, w hat will the central bank respond to the tax increase? And what effect will the tax increase have on the economy?
d. Theoretically, how do fiscal and monetary policies influence the AD curve?
JawabanSoal 3 A (Padang Wicaksono)
An increase in government purchases r
1. IS curve shifts right 1 G by 1 MPC causing output & income to rise.
LM r 2 2.
r 1
2. This raises money demand, causing the interest rate to rise…
1.
IS 2 IS 1
3. …which reduces investment, so the final increase in Y 1 is smaller than G 1 MPC
Y
Y 1 Y 2 3.
2011/5/22
a.
S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-2011
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Monetary policy: An increase in M 1.
M
> 0 shifts the LM curve down (or to the right)
2. …causing the interest rate to fall
r
LM 2
r 1 r 2 IS
3. …which increases investment, causing output & income to rise.
b.
LM 1
Y 1 Y 2
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Y
S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-2011
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The BI’s response to G > 0
Possible BI responses: • 1. hold M constant • 2. hold r constant • 3. hold Y constant
In each case, the effects of the G are different.
Suppose GOI increases G .
2011/5/22
c.
S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-2011
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Response 1: Hold M constant If GOI raises G , the IS curve shifts right. If BI holds M constant, then LM curve doesn’t shift.
r LM 1
r 2 r 1 IS 2
Results:
IS 1
Y Y 2 Y 1
Y 1 Y 2
Y
r r2 r 1 2011/5/22
S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-2011
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Response 2: Hold r constant If GOI raises G , the IS curve shifts right.
r LM 1 LM 2
To keep r constant, BI increases M to shift LM curve right.
r 2 r 1 IS 2
Results:
IS 1
Y Y 3 Y 1
Y
Y 1 Y 2 Y 3
r 0 2011/5/22
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Response 3: Hold Y constant If GOI raises G , the IS curve shifts right. To keep Y constant, BI reduces M to shift LM curve left.
LM 2
r
LM 1 r 3 r 2 r 1 IS 2
Results:
IS 1
Y 0
Y 1 Y 2
Y
r r3 r 1 2011/5/22
S1 Reguler-Ilmu Ekonomi 2010-2011
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Fiscal policy and the AD curve Expansionary fiscal policy (G and/or T ) increases agg. demand:
r
LM
r 2 r 1
IS 2
T C
IS 1
IS shifts right Y at each
value
Y 1
P
Y 2
Y
P 1
of P
AD 2 AD 1 Y 1 2011/5/22
d.
Y 2
Y
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Monetar y policy and the AD curve LM (M 1/P 1)
r
The Fed can increase aggregate demand: M LM shifts right
LM (M 2/P 1)
r 1 r 2
IS
r I Y at each value of P
Y 1
P
Y 2
Y
P 1
AD 2 AD 1 Y 1 2011/5/22
Y 2
Y
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SOAL 4 A – Femmy English Chapter 12 (4A)
a.
Suppose that Macademia is a small open economy under a system of floating exchange rates. Use the Mundell-Fleming model to predict what would happen to aggregate income, the exchange rate, and the trade balance in response to a fall in consumer confidence about the future induces consumers to spend less and save more.
b. What would happen if exchange rates were fixed rather than floating?
ANSWERS : Chapter 12: mohonmaafakandisusulkan, karenaharus di-scan dulu (akhirnyasayabuatjawabannya manual pakaitulisantangan, bikindiagramnyagagalterus).
SOAL 5 A – Rus’an (Chapter 13)
Mengasumsikankurvapenawaranagregatdalamjangkapendek horizontal adalahtidakrealistis.Hal inididasarkanpadapertimbanganbahwaadaharga-harga yang t idaktetap (non-sticky) dalamjangkapendek. a.
Dengan salah satu teori tentang kurva penawaran agregat (AS), jelaskan bahwa dalam jangka pendek kurva AS tidak berupa garis horizontal melainkan upward sloping.
b. Dengan mempergunakan kurva AS yang upward sloping, jelaskan hipotesis natural-rate yang menyatakan bahwa fluktuasi pada permintaan agregat (AD) hanya memengaruhi tingkat keseimbangan output dan tenaga kerja pada jangka pendek namun tidak pada jangka panjang. Gunakan kasus shock moneter ekspansif dan jelaskan konsep money neutrality pada kasus ini. Simplifying price stickyness and drawing the short run aggregate supply curve as horizontal line is unrealistic. This due to consideration that some prices are non-sticky in the short run. a.
Explain using one of the theory of agreg ate supply to show that the short run aggreg ate supply curve is upward sloping
b. Assuming that the AS curve is now upward sloping, explain the natural-rate hypothesis which states that fluctuations in aggregate demand affect output and employment only in t he short run, not in the long run. Using the case of monetary expansionary, explain the money neutrality concept in this case. Jawab
5A.
a.
Soal ini dapat dijelaskan dengan salah satu dari tiga teori tentang AS jika masih mempergunakan Mankiw s.d. edisi 6 (the sticky wage model, the imperfect information model & the sticky price model). Jika edisi 7 yang dipergunakan silakan hanya 2 teori yang dipakai pada edisi tersebut.
= + ( − ) sebuah shock yang menyebabkan AD berfluktuasi, misalnya ekspansi dari titik A ke titik B akan membuat tingkat ke Y .Karena agen di perekonomian tidak harga naik dari P ke P disertai kenaikan output dari berfikir bahwa akan perubahan tingkat harga ini, maka harga ekspektasi akan masih berada di = = . Perubahan yang mendadak pada kurva AD ini menyebabkan terjadinya ekspansi
b. Dengan kurva AS yang upward sloping atau
1
2
1
2
3
1
output dalam jangka pendek (hal ini dapat dikonfirmasi dengan salah satu teori dari soal a.).
Dalam jangka panjang, tingkat ekpektasi harga berubah untuk mengikuti tingkat harga akt ual.
ke . Dimana < . Sesuai persamaan = + ( − ) hal ini tercermin pada pergeseran kurva AS ke kiri at as dan menyebabkan output kembali ke tingkat semula di , . Kondisi keseimbangan ini mencerminkan money neutrality, titik C pada titik keseimbangan Misalnya dari
2
3
2
3
3
dalam jangka panjang perubahan penawaran jumlah uang beredar tidak akan mengubah keseimbangan riil. P
LRAS
SRAS 2 SRAS 1
P3 P 3
e
P 2 e
P 2
AD 2
P1 P 1e
AD 1
Y Y 3 Y1
Y
Y 2
SOAL 6 A – Ledi (A Dynamic Model of AD and AS)
Jawablahpertanyaanberantai di bawahinidenganmenggunakananalisis model dinamikPermintaanPenawaranAgregat (DAD-DAS) dandisertaidengan diagram yang relevan. a.
Seandainya sebuah perekonomian domestik pada periode sebelumnya (t – 1 ) berada pada kondisi keseimbangan jangka panjang, apa dampak dari terjadinya kenaikan harga minyak dunia saat ini (periode t ) pada perekonomian tersebut?
b. Saat harga minyak dunia kembali normal pada satu periode berikutnya ( t + 1), apakah pada periode tersebut tingkat output dan tingkat inflasi akan kembali ke tingkat semula? Jelaskan bagaimana perekonomian domestik bisa kembali ke keseimbangan awalnya!
Answer the interrelated questions below using the dynamic analysis of AggregateDemand and Aggregate Supply (DAD-DAS), and support your answer with relevant diagram. a.
If in the previous period ( t – 1 ) a domestic economy was in its long run equilibrium, what is the impact of the current (period t ) world oil price shock to the economy?
b. When the world oil price shock is over after one period (t + 1), will, at the same period, the output level and the inflation rate of the economy return t o their initial level? Explain how the economy may return to its initial equilibrium! JAWABAN:
a.
Kenaikan harga minyak dunia adalah contoh dari supply shock, membuat variabel v dalam persamaan DAS berubah. Akibatnya DAS bergeser ke kiri. Inflasi naik, bank sentral merespon kenaikan inflasi dengan kenaikan suku bunga nominal yang diikuti dengan kenaikan suku bunga riil (movementalong the curve pada DAD), sehingga tingkat output turun.
b. Saat shock berakhir, DAS bergeser ke kanan, namun pergeser annya belum bisa kembali ke level semula karena inflasi yang lebih tinggi telah menimbulkan ekspektasi kenaikan inflasi di masyarakat (melawan arah pergeseran DAS tadi). Setelah ekuilibrium baru menghasilkan tingkat inflasi yang lebih rendah, barulah ekspektasi inflasi turun, dan terus turun, hingga menggeser kurva DAS ke posisi awal. SOAL 7A – Ninasapti
GOVERNMENT DEBT AND BUDGET DEFICIT SOAL 7A - English
The following paragraphs are news on budget deficit and gover nment debt: It is seen that government will increase the amount of 2011 budget deficit that currently reached 1.8% of GDP. So far, Government has not decided any policy to overcome international oil price fluctuation included subsidized oil. However, government assure that the magnitude of budget deficit will not be more than 2% of GDP. “Maybe it will be discussed in July that government will choose to be status-quo, to limit or to increase subsidized oil price” said Minister of Planning’s Special Staff DediMasykurRiyadi at the beginning of this week. (Defisit APBN 2011 BakalLebihBesar, Kontan 18 Mei 2011) Government has financed Rp 18.7 trillion during April, so that the total cumulative central government debt is Rp 1.697,44 trillion. RahmatWaluyanto. Director of Debt Management, explains that increasing central government debt is due to many new debt disbursements. Thus, compared to the nominal gross domestic bruto (GDP) that also increasing, the ratio of central government debt decline to 25.5% of the end of 2010 position, which is 26%.
(Supriadi, Agust. UtangPemerintahNaik, Bisnis Indonesia 18 Mei 2011)
Questions: 1. Do you agree with the government’s plan to increase budget deficit as international oil price tends to increase and its impact to raising the amount of oil subsidy in APBN, therefore it could cause an increase in government debt? Explain your answer based on economic theory argument that you have learned (debate between traditional view on government debt vs. Ricardian) 2. Explain measurement problems of government debt in government budget (APBN). Answer
1. Agree--> Traditional view: government cut taxes/increase subsidy and runs budget deficit then consumers respond by spending more in this period--> increase current economic growth. Disagree --> Ricardian’s view: consumers’ decision on their current consumption based on their
current and future income --> thus they do not change their current consumption (saving their current income for future reduction in oil subsidy) 2. Measurement problems: inflation, capital assets, uncounted liabilities, business cycle
