Ejemplos en clase - res.xlsx

PROMEDIO MOVIL MESES

JUN

HISTORICO JUL AGO 500 550

PRONÓSTICOS SET

OC T

500 REAL

517

522

515

SET= 500+550+500 / 3 =

516.7

PERO SUPONGAMOS QUE SOLO SE VENDIO 515 ENTONCES EL PRONÓSTICO PARA OCT SERA OCT= 550+500+515 550+500+515 /  / 3 =

521.7

C!"! #$ %&'$()% *%# $"%,%# !#()*%, $, &'!"$)! $, 500 &$'! #) %-'% , %*!' 1000 ,! #$ !"% $-)! % 2$ $-$ #$' &!' , (%#! %&)(! (!"! ,% 4$#% %* $. T'%-%%' (!, %*!'$# (!,#%,$#.

PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO T!"%,! $* (%#! %,$')!' HISTORICO JUL AGO SET 550 500

AA A

AA

PRONÓSTICOS OC T 515

A

516

C"! &!,$ A &%'9' $ *% (!, $*
1 ; 3 HOY=516

OCT = ?1@550+?;@500+?3@515 / 6 =

515.B

SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL - BROWN S&!,%"!# 2$ $# !'%,)%,! !'%,)%,! ,% (!,$,(), &%'% &%'% $* %! ;017. D$#$% &'$$()' $* ,'! ,'!  "$)%,$ %*)#%! $&!,$,()%* #%,! %*>% = 0.1. L% &'$)#), &%'% $* ;01; >$ $ 175 a! ;01; ;013 ;01F ;015

"#$a%"a &#a' 1 16B 15 175

(&#)*+*,% #$ &'!,!#9( 175 = 175+0.1?1 175+0.1?1175 175 = 175.5 =175.5+0.1?16B175.5 = 17F.75 =17F.75+0.1?1517F.75 = 173.1B

;016 ;017

10 K

= 173.1B+0.1@?175173.1B = 173.36 =173.36+0.1@?10173.36 = 175.0;

DESVIACION MEDIA ASOLUTA ?DMA a!

"#$a%"a &#a'

(&#)*+*,% AL:A= .1

;01; ;013 ;01F ;015 ;016

1 16B 15 175 10

175 175.5 17F.5 173.1B 173.36

"#+)*a/*,%

"#+)*a/*,% a;+!'a

7.5 15.5 1.B; 16.6F DMA

7.5 15.5 1.B; 16.6F 10.F

C!,)$,$ '%-%%' (!, %*>% = 0.1

PROYECCION DE 0ENDENCIAS

=

A!

P#&*!"! "# D#$a%"a 3 <#$(! 43

4

;00B

1

;F0

1

;F0

;00 ;010

; 3

;56 ;65

F 

51; 75

;011

F

;7B

16

111;

;01; ;013 ;01F ;015

5 6 7 B

;6 305 31; 3;

;5 36 F 6F

1FB0 1B30 ;1BF ;63;

;016



3F1

B1

306

+$a!&*a+ (&!$#"*!+

;B5 5

21.88

P'$)#), &%'% *!# &$')!!# 1011 : 1; #$'%8 10 353.3; 11 365.7; 1; 37B.1;

INDICES ES0ACIONALES 9 DESCOMPOSICIÓN POR SERIES

13B5F

IE = D$"%,% "$)% &!' ')"$#'$ / D$"%,% ')"$#'%* "$)%

1

A! ;01F ;015 ;016

01 5;0 50 650

02 730 B10 00

08 B;0 00 1000

0> 530 600 650

D#$a%"a $#"*a (!& &*$#+&#

5B6.67

B13.33

06.67

53.33

D#$a%"a &*$#+&a' $#"*a I%"*/# #+a/*!%a'

7;5.00 0.B1

7;5.00 1.1;

7;5.00 1.;5

7;5.00 0.B;

"#$ !a' ;600 ;00 3;00 INDICE ES

2 P&!%!+
01 5;0 50 650

02 730 B10 00

08 B;0 00 1000

0> 530 600 650

"#$a%"a &#a' 3 ;600 ;00 3;00 ;00

-= 300 %= ;300 &!' *! %,!  &%'% &$')!! F=

3500

8 D$#%'$%' *!# 3500 &'!:$(%!# $,'$ *!# F &$')!!# &$'! %#%,! *%# ()>'%# $ %($'! %*

= 3500/F = B75 P'!,#9(! ')"$#'%* &%'% ;017 01 02 08 0>

= 0.B1@B75= = 1.1;@B75= = 1.;5@B75= = 0.B;@B75=

70B.B B0.0 103.B 717.5 85. 'a +$a "#;# "a& #' !a' a

ANALISIS DE RE@RESIÓN Y CORRELACION E, *% #))$,$ %-*% #$ "$#'% *!# (!#!# &!' "%,$,)")$,! $ >#$*%$ : "!!' &!' *% $% "$)% $, $'% ;0.00 #$*%$ A! ;010 ;011 ;01; ;013 ;01F ;015 ;016

C!+! "# C!+! "# $!!& E"a" $#"*a +#'a# (!& #% !&a+ a#&!%a)# (!& a#&!%a)# 51B 5F; 77 6B 637; B373 7B7F

F3F 3B5B 51FB 5B7; F5F7 50; 76

E"a" $#"*a #% !&a+ 43

C!+! "# +#'a# (!& a#&!%a)# 3

1 ; 3

6.51; B.F0F 11.077

S/. 51B00.00 S/. 5F;0.00 S/. 7700.00

F 5 6 7

11.717 13.;75 15.;15 1B.30 ;0.000

S/. S/. S/. S/.

P#&*!"!

6B00.00 637;0.00 B3730.00 7B7F0.00

6.51; B.F0F 11.077 11.717 13.;75 15.;15 1B.3

:%/*! %. P'!,#9(! &%'% &$')!! ;0 -. E''!' &)(! $* &'!,#9(! ? (. C!$4()$,$ $ (!''$*%(), . C!$4()$,$ $ $$'"),%() E# $* (%'%! $ R

$. % ?&,! !,$ #$ ('% *% NAMEK >. - ?&$,)$,$ $ *% '$(% =

C<%' T)*$

S/.0000.00 S/.B0000.00

>?IA = ;F6;.;G1FF;1G6FI + 3G03;.10G557B013 S/.70000.00 RP = 0.61B6107117 S/.60000.00 S/.50000.00 S/.F0000.00 S/.30000.00 S/.;0000.00 S/.10000.00 S/. F.000

6.000

B.000

10.000

1;.000

1F.000

16.000

1B.000

;0.000

 

'%"!#8 &'$")#% $ 2$ $* %:$' 9$,$ "%:!' '$*%(), # #($#)%"$,$ $, >,(), $ $**! A $,'% ,% 3 AA = ; : AAA = 1.

$ &$'#!,%# 2$ %#)#9',

EL ALA ES UN INTERCEPTO

(&#)*+*,% AL:A= .>

"#+)*a/*,%

"#+)*a/*,% a;+!'a

177 173.F 167.6F 170.5BF

 1F.F 7.36 1.F; DMA

 1F.F 7.36 1.F; 1;.5

-= 13B5F??5?;1.33 / ;B5??5; = 1;.F0;5

C<%' T)*$

F00

% = ;1.33  ?1;.F0;5 ?5 = ;;.3175

350

>?IA = 1;.FI + ;;G. RP = 0.GGF5666;3

300 ;50 ;00

L% $(%(), #$'%

150 100

:= ;;.3;+1;.F

50 0

0

1

;

3

C!, $#% $(%(), &$! &'!:$(%' ") $"%,% $, (%*2)$' "!"$,! $, $* 9$"&!

F

5

6

"#$ $#"*a a%a' 01 650 5;0/650=0.B 7;5 50/7;5=0.B1 B00 0.B1  

 

02 730/650=1.1; 1.1; 1.1;

08 1.;6 1.;F 1.;5

0> 0.B; 0.B3 0.B1

1.1;

1.;5

0.B;

0.B1

ACIONAL

%"#%/*a+ (#&*!"! 43 1 ; 3 ;

),)($ $#%()!,%*

: 1 F  1F

;600 5B00 600 1B000

a' (&!%!+
#+ #% #4#'
BB;77.3B ")*$# $ *%'$#

 B503.56

!*%'$#

 

BB;77.3B

B503.56 0.7B65

, ?R;

7B.65

0.61B6

$(% (!, : =

303; ;F6;

I,#$'! '4(! $ $,$,()%# U-)(%'#$ #!-'$ *% )#&$'#), $ %!# : (!, (*)( $'$(
BB;7B.00

 

333333333

7

B



10