ANALISIS FORECASTING DALAM SPSS
Nama
: GEOVA GEOVANI
NPM
: 14210059
Kelas
: 3212
Semes!e"#$%"%sa&
: T'(a T'(a ) 3* # A+%&!a&s' A+%&!a&s'
Ma!a K%l'a,
: APLIKASI KOMP-TER STATISTIK
DOSE DOSEN N MA MATA K-LI K-LIA. A.
: S-P S-PRI RI/ /ADI DI SE SE
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ANALISIS FORECASTING DALAM SPSS
1 Pengertian Peramalan Pe"amala& aa! 'e'&'s'+a& sea(a' s%a!% "ses meme"+'"a+a& se6a"a s's!ema!'s !e&!a&( aa 7a&( al'&( m%&(+'& !e"8a' ' masa ea& e"asa"+a& '&"m '&"mas' as' masa masa lal% lal% a& se+a"a& se+a"a&( ( 7a&( 7a&( 'm'l'+ 'm'l'+'' a(a" a(a" +esala +esala,a& ,a&&7 &7aa aa! aa! 'e"+e6'l )M%l7& 2000* 2 Rentang Waktu Peramalan Re&!a&( a+!% e"amala& alam "a+!e+ sa&(a! e"a"'as' Aa 7a&( mela+%+a& e"amala& se6a"a "%!'& e&(a& 8a&(+a a+!% 7a&( e&e+ a'+ '!%
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m'&((%a& m'&((%a& a,+a& a,+a& ,a"'a& ,a"'a& Nam%& Nam%& aa 8%(a e"amala& e"amala& 7a&( 7a&(
mem%&7a' "e&!a&( a+!% lama sama' e"!a,%&;!a,%& Me&%"%! Sa&!s )2009* e"amala& a"' s%%! "e&!a&( a+!% aa! 'a(' me&8a' 3 ma6am 7a+&' : e"amala& 8a&(+a e&e+ 8a&(+a me&e&(a, a& 8a&(+a a&8a&( a Peramalan Jangka Pendek $a&(+a $a&(+a e&e+ e&e+ mel'% mel'%!' !' +%"%& +%"%& a+!% a+!% m%la' m%la' a"' a"' sa!% ,a"' sama' sama' sa!% sa!% m%s'm a!a% aa! sama' sa!% !a,%& Pe"amala& '&' %m%m&7a me&((%&a+a& e"amala& +%a&!'!a!' +a"e&a me&(a&((a a!a masa lal% mas', "elea& %&!%+ '8a'+a& a,a& "e'+s' Peramalan Jangka Menengah
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me&((%&a+a& e"amala& +%a&!'!a!' a& +%al'!a!' +a"e&a me&(a&((a a!a masa lal% mas', 6%+% "elea& "e lea& %&!%+ mem"e'+s' masa a!a&(
6 Peramalan Jangka Pan!ang $a&(+a a&8a&( mel'%!' +%"%& a+!% m'&'mal l'ma !a,%& Pe"amala& '&' %m%m %m%m&7 &7aa
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me&(a&((a a!a masa lal% s%a, !'a+ la(' "elea& ,a&7a se'+'! 7a&( mas', me&((%&a+a& e"amala& +%a&!'!a!' 3 C"nt"h Peramalan dalam SPSS a* Pe"amala& Pe"amala& e&(a& e&(a& Me!e Me!e ARIMA ARIMA melal%' "("am "("am SPSS SPSS 1< T%l's T%l'sa& a& '&' ,a&7ala, ,a&7ala, !e+&'+ !e+&'+ e"amal e"amala& a& e&(a& e&(a& me!e me!e ARIMA ARIMA 7a&( me&((%&a+a& Al'+as' SPSS 1< -&!%+ !e"'&7a s'la,+a& a6a %+% E+&me!"'+a 1 =%+a =%+a Al'+ l'+as' as' SPSS SPSS 1< 2 =%+a F'le >E+&me! >E+&me!"'+a> "'+a>a!a>a"'m a!a>a"'ma?'& a?'&e+s?! e+s?!"a&s@ "a&s@ls ls 3 La+%+a La+%+a& & %8' s!as' s!as'&e" &e"'!as '!as e&(a e&(a& & me&(+l me&(+l'+ '+ : Anal#$e % F"re&a'ting ( Aut"&"rrelati"n 4 Mas%++a& Mas%++a& a"'ale a"'ale 6ls'&( 6ls'&( +e alam +lm a"'aleB a"'aleB ,'la&(+ ,'la&(+a& a& !a&a !a&a 6e&!a&( a"!'al 6""ela!'&B aa a"ame!e" 'sla7B lal% +l'+ O+
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Da"' Da"' (am (ama" a" ' a!as a!as me&% me&%&8 &8%+ %++a +a& & a, a,aa a!a a!a !'a !'a+ + s!as' s!as'& &e" e" le, le, +a"e&a '!% ,a"%s 'la+%+a& 'e"e&6'&( < La+%+a& La+%+a& la(' la(' la&(+a, la&(+a, +e;3 +al' +al' '&' aa aa a"ame!e" a"ame!e" !"a&s" !"a&s"m m e"' !a&a !a&a 6e&!a&( aa 'e"e&6e a& 's' +lm e&(a& 1 ,as'l&7a:
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.as'l e&(la, e&(la,a& a& me&%&8%+ me&%&8%++a& +a& a!a a!a !ela, s!as'&e" s!as'&e" e"a"!' e"a"!' s'a %&!%+ %&!%+ e"mela& e&(a& ARIMA 9 -&!%+ me&e&! me&e&!%+a& %+a& " " aa mel mel ARIMA ARIMA la+%+a la+%+a& & la(' la&(+a, la&(+a, +e; 3 !a' !a' +al' +al' '&' '&' e"' e"' !a&a !a&a 6e&!a 6e&!a&( &( aa aa a" a"!' !'al al a%! a%!6 6""e ""ela! la!' '&s &sBB se,'&((a ,as'l&7a me&8a':
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10 Da"' Da"' ,as'l;, ,as'l;,as'l as'l ' a!as a!as ma+a ma+a aa! aa! '%a! '%a! mel mel ARIMA ARIMA )* )* sea(a' ARIMA )111* 11 11 La&(+a La&(+a, , %&!%+ %&!%+ mem%a mem%a!! mel mel +l'+ +l'+ A&al7 A&al7e;6 e;6"ea "ea!e !e mel mel 'l', 'l', ARIMA ARIMA aa aa a"ame a"ame!e" !e" me!, me!,s s %a! %a! " " )111 )111** aa aa !ml !ml 6"'!e"'a
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12 Paa Tas Tas S!a!'s!'+B e"' 6e&!a&( Pa"ame!e" es!'ma!esB aa S!a!'s!'6 " I&''%al Mel
13 Paa Tas Tas SaeB e"' 6e&!a&( N'se Res'%alB lal% OK
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14 .as'l&7a .as'l&7a sea(a' e"'+%!: e"'+%!: ARIMA M"del Parameter'
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1 -&!%+ me&(e!a,% me&(e!a,%'' aa+a, e""" ,'!e &'se a!a% !'a+ '+%!' la&(+a, a&al7 a&al7ee J "e6as "e6as!'& !'&( ( J a%!6 a%!6""el ""ela!' a!'& & Kal' Kal' '&' a"'a a"'ael&7 el&7aa &'se &'se "es'%al "m 6ls'&( lal% ,'la&(+a& 6e&!a&( a"!'al 6""ela!'& lal% OK .as'l&7a:
1< .as'l ' a!as me&%&8%++a& me&%&8%++a& a,a e""" !'a+ ,'!e ,'!e &'se -&!%+ '!% mel ARIMA ,a"%s '!%"%&+a& e&(a& me!e !"'al e""" m'sal&7a ARIMA )110* a!a% ARIMA )011* -&!%+ '!% %la&(' la&(+a, +e;11 ,'&((a +e;1 1 $'+a !'a+ '!em%+a& mel 7a&( 7a&( a'+ 7a&( meme&%,' meme&%,' 2 s7a"a! ' a!as
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Va"'ael +em%'a& '(a&!' me&8a' m'&((% a& sales 0aria+le 0ie1: Nama Va"'ael
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2 O%!%! 7a&( 'aa! 'aa! a"' me!e me!e Centered M"-ing A-erage % Weighted M"-ing A-erage A-erage aala, sea(a' e"'+%!:
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Ma+a N'la' Sales 7a&( 'aa!+a& aa m'&((% +e; ,'&((a 12 e"asa"+a& me!e prior moving average 2133 19< 19< a& average e"!%"%!;!%"%! aala, 1<1< 2133 20333 Se8a+ +e%a&7a +e%a&7a me"%a+a& me"%a+a& me!e simple e&(a& a& ',an 3 simple moving average average e&( ma+a ,as'l e"amala&&7a a+a& sama
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DAFTAR P-STAKA
M%l7& S 2000 Per 2000 Perama amalan lan Bisnis Bisnis dan dan Ekon Ekonom ometr etrika ika.. Edi Edisi si Pert Pertama ama =PPE /(7a+a"!a
