123 Wave Count

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Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (10–19, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort INDICATORS

prices, or that uses an average true range (ATR) volatility factor. I have found that a combination of both methods makes a good indicator. HIGH-LOW ZIGZAG In Figure 1 you see an example of a zigzag between the lowest low and highest high levels at the turning points. The minimum change required in this example is the sum of a 3% price change and a three-period ATR multiplied by a factor of 1.5. I call this zigzag indicator “SVEHLZZperc” and use NinjaTrader’s NinjaScript to implement it. I keep the last lowest low value in parameter ll and the last highest high value in parameter hh. I need to store the bar position of this highest high or lowest low value. To do this, I use the last highest bar lhb and last lowest bar llb as the parameters. PROGRAMMING THE ZIGZAG Here are all the parameters I use:

Riding The Zigzags

The 1-2-3 Wave Count In this second part of a seven-article series, nd out about the 1-2-3 wave count system that’s part of the indicator rules for a swing trading strategy (IRSTS).

n

ZZPercent = 5: the zigzag percentage used (default value is 5)

n

ATRPeriod = 5: the ATR lookback period (default is 5)

n

ATRFactor = 1.5: the ATR multiplication factor (default is 1.5)

n

zigZagColor = Color.DodgerBlue: the default color used for the zigzag

n

linewidth = 1: the line width of the zigzag

n

trend: trend of current zigzag line (1=up, -1=down)

n

lhb: last highest bar count since last swing high

n

uplineid: last-used up line id name

n

llb: last lowest bar count since last swing low

n

downlineid: last-used down line id name

n

hh: new higher high

n

ll: new lower low

n

HLPivot: the high-low pivot reverse level.

by Sylvain Vervoort

I

have found that about 99% of the time, any move in the nancial markets is composed of three or more up or down waves. The 1-2-3 wave count is based on this nding. To help count these waves, I will introduce a high-low zigzag indicator that is based on a xed-percent price change between high and low Copyright © Technical Analysis Inc.

N W O R B . L M A I L L I W

Stocks & Commodities V. 31:6 (10–19, 41): The 1-2-3 Wave Count by Sylvain Vervoort

3 2

1 1

3

2 R E D A R T A J N I N

FIGURE 1: HIGH-LOW ZIGZAG. Here you see an example of a zigzag between the lowest low and highest high levels at the turning points.

I will begin with a special action for the rst two data bars — I store the last low and high price to nd out if prices are moving up or down. if (CurrentBar < 1) // minimum 2 bars required { ll = Low[0]; hh = High[0]; llb = lhb = 0; return; } if (CurrentBar < 2) // trend start based on bar 2 { if (High[0] >= hh) { hh = High[0]; lhb = 1; trend = 1; } else { ll = Low[0]; llb = 1; trend = -1; } uplineid = downlineid = CurrentBar; }

To prot from price volatility in the zigzag, I use J. Welles Wilder’s ATR to create a volatility factor based on a lookback period and multiplication factor. You can draw the zigzag on a xed high-low percentage swing, or on the ATR volatility, or on a combination of percentage swings and price volatility. The HLPivot parameter is inuenced by either the zigzag percentage used, or by the ATR period and factor, or by both the percent and ATR settings. If the ATR factor is set to zero, then the percent setting will be taken into account. If the z igzag percent is set to zero, the volatility setting will be used.

// ATR factor = 0, only use percent setting if (ATRFactor == 0) HLPivot = (ZZPercent*0.01); // Zigzag percent = 0, only use ATR else if (ZZPercent == 0) HLPivot = ATR(ATRPeriod)[0]/Close[0]*ATRFactor; // Use both infuences

else HLPivot = ZZPercent*0.01 + ATR(ATRPeriod)[0]/ Close[0]*ATRFactor;

If price is in an uptrend and the new high price is higher than or equal to the previous high, the up zigzag line to the new high will be redrawn. // trend is up, look for a new high or a new swing low if (trend > 0) { if (High[0] >= hh) { // new higher high detected hh = High[0]; lhb = CurrentBar; // RemoveDrawObject(“uplineid.ToString”); // Not required, handled by drawing line with the same name id DrawLine(uplineid.ToString(), AutoScale, CurrentBar-llb, ll, CurrentBar-lhb, hh, zigZagColor, DashStyle.Solid, linewidth); }

If there is a new higher high or equal high, then hh will take the new high value, and the last highest bar, lhb, will have the current bar count value. The line that was drawn previously will need to be removed because you will use the same name for this line section. NinjaTrader will automatically remove the previous line. The parameter Uplineid identies this line, which is the current bar count of the start of a new swing high or low. The line uses the autoscale setting on the vertical price axis. It

Copyright © Technical Analysis Inc.


3

If the last low price is lower than the last high price minus the reversal zigzag setting HLPivot, the low price is stored as the last low and the current bar count is stored in the last low bar.

1 2

1 2 3 FIGURE 2: THREE WAVES. Ninety-nine percent of the time, there is a minimum of three waves in any up or down move. The move starts with wave 1; wave 2 is a correction; and wave 3 is a continuation of the move beyond the top or bottom of wave 1.

1

0.00% (11.34)

23.60% (10.98) 38.20% (10.76) 50.00% (10.58) 61.80% (10.39) 76.40% (10.17)

If the last low price is lower than the last high price minus the reversal zigzag setting HLPivot, the low price is stored as the last low and the current bar count is stored in the last low bar. The parameter downlineid takes the current bar count as the name for the new zigzag sector line. Since the trend has switched from an uptrend to a downtrend, you set the value for the trend to -1 and start drawing the i nitial segment of the new down zigzag line. You would use similar programming to switch from a downtrend to an uptrend. The complete NinjaScript le (SVEHLZZperc.zip) containing the code can be downloaded from the STOCKS & COMMODITIES website at www.traders.com/les/VervoortNinjaTrader.html or from my website, www.stocata.org.

2

THE BASIC COUNT The 1-2-3 wave count is based on a limited number of rules:

100.00% (9.81) FIGURE 3: CORRECTION LEVELS. A smaller wave 2 correction will be a Fibonacci retracement between 23.6% and 50%. Larger corrections retrace up to a 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level. A retracement beyond 76.4% should be considered a warning signal.

is drawn from the current bar minus the last lowest bar at the price level of the last lowest value to the current bar minus the last highest bar at the level of the highest high value. It will be a solid line with a line width of one pixel in the color that is set for “zigZagColor.” If there is no new higher high, we must check to see if the last low price breaks the reversal amount based on the highest high price minus the HLPivot factor. The code is thus: else if (Low[0] < hh - hh*HLPivot) { // found a new swing low ll = Low[0]; llb = CurrentBar; downlineid = CurrentBar; trend = -1; DrawLine(downlineid.ToString(), AutoScale, CurrentBar-lhb, hh, CurrentBar-llb, ll, zigZagColor, DashStyle.Solid, linewidth); }

Three waves Any up or down move consists of a minimum of three waves 99% of the time (Figure 2). The 1-2-3 waves are fractal: every wave can be made up of a lower-degree 1-2-3 wave and belongs to a higher-degree wave. n

The move starts with a wave 1

n

Wave 2 is a correction wave smaller than wave 1

n

Wave 3 continues the move beyond the top (bottom) of wave 1.

Correction levels A smaller wave 2 correction will be a Fibonacci retracement between 23.6% and 50%. Larger corrections retrace up to a 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level (Figure 3). A retracement beyond 76.4% should be considered a warning signal. It suggests that price may continue past the 100% retracement, and if this were to happen, it would change the count. A wave 2 retracement remains valid as long as it does not retrace more than 100% of wave 1.



3.3 3.2

wave 3 tops (bottoms). The rst top (bottom) is wave 3.1, the second is wave 3.2, and so on.

Divergences A divergence between price and indicator(s) at the 3.1 start of a new 1-2-3 wave is a good signal. A diver1 gence followed by a hidden divergence generally indicates a continuation of the previous trend. 2 In Figure 5 you see a positive divergence on the left — there are lower lows in price and higher lows in the indicator. This is a good signal for an uptrend reversal and 2 is often visible at the start of a new 1-2-3 wave up. At the beginning of wave 3, there is a hidden divergence with higher lows in price but lower lows 2 in the indicator. This is usually a good signal for a continuation in the direction of the previous uptrend started by wave 1 up. The chart in Figure 6 shows an example of a new FIGURE 4: CONTINUATION. The top (bottom) of a wave 3 is considered a new wave 1 top (bot1-2-3 wave down. On the left side of the chart, there tom) and thus the start of a new wave 2. Consecutive higher (lower) wave 3s are annotated with an additional sequence number to indicate that there are more wave 3 tops (bottoms). is a divergence with higher highs in price and lower highs in the indicator. This is a good signal for a downtrend reversal and is commonly visible at the start of a new Continuation The top (bottom) of a wave 3 is considered a new wave 1 top 1-2-3 wave down. At the beginning of wave 3 down, there is a hidden divergence with lower highs in price but higher highs (bottom) and therefore the start of a new wave 2 (Figure 4). Consecutive higher (lower) wave 3s are annotated with an in the indicator. This suggests a continuation in the direction additional sequence number to indicate that there are more of the previous downtrend started by wave 1 down. 3.2

3

2

3.1

1

2

2>1

2

FIGURE 5: DIVERGENCES. Here you see a positive divergence on the left with lower lows in price and higher lows in the indicator. There is also a hidden divergence with higher lows in price and lower lows in the indicator. This is a good signal for a continuation move.

3

FIGURE 6: DOWNTREND CONTINUATION. Here you see a 1-2-3 wave down. On the left is a divergence with higher highs in price and lower highs in the indicator. At the beginning of wave 3 down there is a hidden divergence with lower highs in price but higher highs in the indicator. This suggests a continuation in the direction of the previous downtrend started by wave 1.



3.4

3.3

A compliance — up or down — with the IRSTS rules after a correction wave 2 gives nice, profitable entry points in wave 3.

2

2 2>1

3 3.1 FIGURE 7: INVALID WAVE 2 IN AN UPTREND. The correction wave 2 starting from the end of wave 3.4 breaks below the start of wave 3.4 and crosses the horizontal red support line. Beyond that point you can expect a trend reversal. Wave 2 is consequently renamed as a new wave 1 (2>1) that moves in the opposite direction. You can then expect a wave 2 up correction followed by a wave 3 that moves to the downside.

REVERSALS

Invalid wave 2 in an uptrend A wave 2 correction that passes beyond the start of the previous wave 1 or 3 is likely to be the beginning of a trend reversal. Figure 7 shows an example of a downward reversal. The correction wave 2 starting from the end of wave 3.4 breaks below the start of wave 3.4 and crosses the horizontal red support line.

Beyond that point you can expect a trend reversal. Wave 2 is consequently renamed a s a new wave 1 (2>1) that moves in the opposite direction. You can then expect a wave 2 up correction followed by a wave 3 that moves to the downside. Invalid wave 2 in a downtrend In Figure 8, correction wave 2 starts from the end of wave 3.5, breaks above the start of wave 3.5, and crosses above the horizontal red resistance line. Beyond that point you can expect a trend reversal, and consequently, wave 2 is renamed as a new wave 1 (2>1) that moves in the opposite direction.

Incomplete wave 3 in an uptrend After the top of wave 3 in Figure 9, there is a valid wave 2 correction and you can expect another wave 3 up. This wave, however, turns down before making a new top. The last downturn is conrmed as soon as the zigzag draws the last line down based on the zigzag reversal setting. From that point, you renumber the count. Wave 2 becomes a wave 1 and the expected wave 3 becomes a wave 2 and you can expect a further move down for wave 3.

3

1

3>2

2>1

2 2 2

3.3

2>1 2

3.4 3.5 FIGURE 8: INVALID WAVE 2 IN A DOWNTREND. The correction wave 2 starts from the end of wave 3.5, breaks above the start of wave 3.5, and crosses above the horizontal red resistance line. Wave 2 is renamed as a new wave 1 (2>1) that moves in the opposite direction.

FIGURE 9: INCOMPLETE WAVE 3 IN AN UPTREND. After the top of wave 3, there is a valid wave 2 correction, which means you can expect another wave 3 up. This wave, however, turns down before making a new top, which means you should renumber the count.


3


2

2

3.2

3

2>1

1 2

3.1 3>2 3.2 FIGURE 10: INCOMPLETE WAVE 3 IN A DOWNTREND. After the wave 3.2 low, there is a valid wave 2 correction and you can expect another wave 3 down. This wave, however, turns up before making a new bottom. The upturn is confirmed as soon as the last blue line up is drawn based on the zigzag reversal amount setting. From that point you renumber the count.

Incomplete wave 3 in a downtrend In Figure 10 after the wave 3.2 low, there is a valid wave 2 correction and you can expect another wave 3 down. This wave, however, turns up before making a new bottom. The upturn is conrmed as soon as the last blue line up is drawn based on the zigzag reversal amount setting. From that point you renumber the count. Wave 2 becomes a wave 1 and the expected wave 3 becomes a wave 2 and you can expect a wave 3 up.

3.1

1

3.1

2 2

2>1>2

2>1>2

3.2 3.3 3.4

FIGURE 11: UPTREND EXCEPTION. After the top at 3.1 there is an invalid wave 2 correction. At that point you would renumber wave 2 to a new wave 1, next expecti ng a wave 2 correction upward. Again, there is an invalid wave 2 crossing above the start of the new wave 1 (top 3.1). Since price breaks above the last top at 3.1, you have a new top and number it logically as 3.2.

RULE COUNT EXCEPTION Uptrend exception One exception to the standard count and reversal rule numbering in an uptrend is when a new higher level 3 is reached as shown in Figure 11. Following the top at 3.1, there is an invalid wave 2 correction. At that point you would renumber wave 2 to a new wave 1, next expecting a wave 2 correction upward. Again, there is an invalid wave 2 crossing above the start of the new wave 1 (top 3.1). With the standard count, you would normally renumber this wave 2 to a new wave 1. Since price breaks above the last top at 3.1, you have a new top and number it logically as 3.2. This means you accept the prior wave as a wave 2 and consider it a correction to the complete 1-2-3 wave 3.1 and not just the last leg.

Downtrend exception You use the same exception rule to the standard count and reversal rule numbering in a downtrend when a new lower low level 3 is reached as shown in Figure 12. After the 3.3 low, you get an invalid wave 2 correction. At that point you would renumber the wave 2 to a new wave 1 and expect a wave 2 correction downward. Once again, there is an invalid wave 2 crossing below the beginning of the new wave 1 (bottom 3.3). With the standard count, you would normally renumber this wave 2 to a new wave 1. But since price breaks below the last bottom at 3.3, you now have a new lower bottom and number

FIGURE 12: DOWNTREND EXCEPTION. After the 3.3 low, you get an invalid wave 2 correction. At that point you would renumber the wave 2 to a new wave 1 and expect a wave 2 correction downward. Once again, there is an invalid wave 2 crossing below the beginning of the new wave 1 (bottom 3.3). Since pr ice breaks below the last bottom at 3.3, you now have a new lower bottom and number it logically as 3.4.

it logically as 3.4. This mea ns that you accept the prior wave as a wave 2, and interpret it as a correction to the complete 1-2-3 wave 3.3, not just the last leg. As mentioned at the beginning of this article, this wave count system is one of the rules within IRSTS. Let’s look at the 1-2-3 waves rule within the IRSTS trading strategy. Remember, this is just one of eight rules. IRSTS 1-2-3 WAVE RULE The rule is simple: you should only enter a trade when the expected wave is a wave 1 or 3. Wave 1 and 3 move in the direction of the trend. Wave 2 is a correction wave and often the price move will be too small to make a prot.

Expecting a wave 3 A compliance — up or down — with the IRSTS rules after a correction wave 2 as in Figure 13 (blue up arrows are shown at the IRSTS compliance level) gives nice, protable entry points in wave 3. Often, the start of wave 3 will be close to the averages, contrary to a wave 1 start, which will have its origin close to the volatility band. The indicators will usually move above and bounce up (or down) from the median value. The rule that price is moving above the support of the average(s) will be the one in favor here. From the chart in Figure 13, it is clear that making a prot during a normal wave 2 correction is almost impossible compared to prot-making opportunities in a wave 3. Expecting a wave 1 This is more difcult than expecting a wave 3. A new wave 1



3.2

3.1 2 1

2

SVEBBpercB(TER(Daily),18,8), SVEStoch(TER(Daily),28,5)

FIGURE 13: PROFITABLE ENTRY POINTS FOR WAVE 3. The blue up arrows shown at the IRSTS compliance give profitable entry points in wave 3.

3.2 161.80% (18.71)

2>1? 3.1 100.00% (15.20)

1 2

2 0.00% (9.52)

SVEBBpercB(GT(Daily),18,8), SVEStoch(GT(Daily),28,5)

FIGURE 14: EXPECTING A WAVE 1. A top has been reached at 3.2. You would expect a wave 2, but there is a chance that this wave 2 will turn into a wave 1 for a 1-2-3 wave correction down.



3.2

3>2

0.00% (17.79)

100.00% (16.53)

2>1 161.80% (15.75)

3.1 261.80% (14.49)

3 1 2

423.60% (12.45)

2 SVEBBpercB(GT(Daily),18,8), SVEStoch(GT(Daily),28,5)

FIGURE 15: A LARGER 1-2-3 WAVE CORRECTION OR A SMALL WAVE 2 CORRECTION? There is a developing 1-2-3 wave down. Wave 2 could change into a wave 1 when the expected wave 3.3 turns down before reaching a new top and changes from a wave 3 to 2. It looks as if the first wave 3 down is completed, reaching a solid support level (red horizontal line) at the lower side of the volatility band and a 261.8% Fibonacci target projected from wave 2.

indicates a reversal of the ongoing trend. The start of a new wave 1 will therefore always start with a wave 2 correction of the previous trend. In Figure 14, it looks like a top has been reached at 3.2. You would expect a wave 2, but there is a chance that this wave 2 will turn into a wave 1 for a 1-2-3 wave correction down. What is important, as you will see later on, is to comply with the IRSTS rules for a trend reversal. But often, you will not yet have a reversal wave 2 conrmation. Can you expect a larger 1-2-3 wave correction and not just another small wave 2 correction? Consider the following when trying to answer this question: n

Even a valid wave 2 correction is sufciently large enough to make a good prot

n

There is a signicant up move in price since the start of wave 1

n

A Fibonacci target projection over the rst completed wave 3.1 gives a 161.8% target at exactly the top of wave 3.2 (down wave not yet conrmed)

n

Strong resistance down is far enough away (previous top at 3.1 and all the averages)

n

There is a negative divergence between price and indicator.

As expected, there is a developing 1-2-3 wave down (Figure 15). Wave 2 could change into a wave 1 when the expected

wave 3.3 turns down before reaching a new top and changes from a wave 3 to 2. It looks as if the rst (perhaps) wave 3 down is completed, reaching a solid support level (red horizontal line) at the lower side of the volatility band and a 261.8% Fibonacci target projected from wave 2. This complies with most of the IRSTS rules. It is best to take the prot and close the short trade. If this is the start of a longer-term down move, then you can expect a correction wave 2 up and you probably should not trade it. Another reason to not take the trade is that uptrend resistance is nearby. On the other hand, this could be an extended wave 2 correction related to the previous large up move and you would prefer to believe that an up wave 3.3 is coming next. The decision is yours! If you go for the latter and it turns out to be incorrect, try to make a prot before price turns down again. Don’t miss the next wave down when that signal comes in. In the third part of this article series on the IRSTS, I will introduce you to my new candlestick pattern. This pattern will simplify the approach to candlestick pattern recognition. Sylvain Vervoort is a retired electronics engineer who has been studying and using technical analysis for more than 35 years. His book Capturing Prot With Technical Analysis received a bronze medal from the 2010 Axiom Business Book Awards in the category of investing. The book is a technical analysis reference introducing a trading method called Lockit. His



latest Band Break System trading expert is available on DVD. Vervoort may be reached at [email protected] or via his website at http://stocata.org. SUGGESTED READING Vervoort, Sylvain [2013]. “Indicator Rules For Swing Trading Strategies, Part 1,” Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, Volume 31: May. _____ [2009]. Capturing Prot With Technical Analysis, Marketplace Books. Vervoort, Sylvain [2012]. “Long-Term Trading Using Exchange Traded Funds,” Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, Volume 30: July.

The NinjaScript code for this article can be downloaded from www.traders.com/les/Vervoort-NinjaTrader.html, or from the Subscriber’s Area at Traders.com, or from Vervoort’s website at http://stocata.org/ninjatrader/formulas.html. The le is named “SVEHLZZperc.zip.” For code for other platforms, see the Traders’ Tips section beginning on page 52, which offers code, commentary, and implementation of Sylvain Vervoort’s technique in various technical analysis programs. Accompanying program code can be found in the Traders’ Tips area of Traders.com at http://www.traders.com/index.php/sac-magazine/depart ments/traders-tips.

‡NinjaTrader (NinjaTrader, LLC)


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