DARIO EDUARDO RINCON GUTIERREZ
Te!a#e=, Te!a#e=, a #e=#ile co%an+ #$a# $as a !o'(c#i)e e=e!ience e=e!ience in #$e "o!ein %a!>e %an("ac#( %an("ac#(!es !es a ne* !o'(c# !o'(c# in i#s %ain %ain lan#, lan#, o! i" on #$e con#!a!+ con#!a!+ #$e (!c$as (!c$asee "!o 'een' on #$e 'e%an' 'e%an' o" #$e !o'(c#. T$e #able #able s$o*s !o?ec#e' !o?ec#e' !o"i#s
se
o e e!% ne
-1
-
--
-/
-0
-
3.0-
3.43
e co%an+ s o(
!+ o e a e e! es %a e o
e
A #es# #es# %a!>e# s#('+ o" o#en#ial !o'(c# 'e%an' is e=ec#e' #o !eo!# a "a)o!able 568 o! (n"a)o!able 5U8 con'i#ion. T$e !ele)an# con'i#ional !obabili#ies a!e@
P567lo*8 2 3,9-
P5D7lo*8 2 3,-
P567 P567lo lo* * a)e a)e!a !ae e88 2 3,0 3,0::
P5D P5D7 lo* lo* a)e! a)e!a ae8 e8 2 3,; 3,;99
P567 P567$i $i$ $ %e'i %e'i(% (%88 2 3,4 3,4
P5D P5D7 $i$ $i$ %e'i %e'i(% (%88 2 3,; 3,;
P567$i$8 2 3,-
P5D7$i$8 2 3,-
. $a# is #$e e=ec#e' )al(e o" %a!>e# !esea!c$ in"o!%a#ion $a# is #$e e""icienc+ o" #$e in"o!%a#ion
3.03.43 3.93.03.43
3.93.03.43 3.9-
-;.4 Millons o" 'ola!s -:.; Millons o" 'ola!s -;.; Millons o" 'ola!s (_∕ 〖 )= 〗 ((∕_ )(_))/(())
P5s182 3,0P5s982 3,4 P5s082 3,9P567lo*8 P567 lo*8 2 3.9P567lo* a)e!ae8 2 3.0: P567$i$ P567 $i$ %e'i(%8 %e'i(%8 2 3.4 P567$i$8 P567 $i$8 2 3.-
3.0-
3.9-
3.43
3 .4
3.9-
3 .P568
P5D7lo*8 P5D7lo*8 2 3.P5D7lo* a)e!ae8 2 3.;9 P5D7$i$ P5D7$i$ %e'i(%8 %e'i(%8 2 3.; P5D7$i$8 P5D7$i$8 2 3.-
3.0-
3.-
3.43
3.;
3.9-
3.P568
3.90 3.40 3.04 3.90 3.40 3.04 3.90 3.40 3.04
3.49 3.0: 3.93 3.49 3.0: 3.93 3.49 3.0: 3.93
Val(e Val(e o" e!"ec# in"o!%a#ion@ VEIM2 VEcIM F VEsIM VEcIM2 -:.;1
%illions o" 'olla!s
VEsIM2 -:.;
%illions o" 'olla!s
VE VEIM IM 3.31 3.31
# o" 9- +ea!s, %(s# 'eci'e i" i# an e=#e!nal s(lie!. T$e !o"i#s , in %illions o" 'olla!s.
;0 ;0 ;1 3.9-
-1
1.:-
-
99.:
;0
1-.-
--
1/.9-
-/
90.;
-;.43 Millons o" 'ola!s -:.;3
;0
1-.-
-0
1:.--
-
99.:
;1
TE BEST DECISION -:.; MILLONS O6 DOLARS
1-.9-
Millons o" 'ola!s -;.;3 Millons o" 'ola!s
VEcIP2 53,0-8--J53,48-/J53,9-8;0 VEcIP2 -:,; %illions o" 'olla!s
P567lo*8 2 3,9-
P5D7lo*8 2 3,-
P567lo* a)e!ae8 2 3,0:
P5D7 lo* a)e!ae8 2 3,;9
P567$i$ %e'i(%8 2 3,4
P5D7 $i$ %e'i(%8 2 3,;
P567$i$8 2 3,-
P5D7$i$8 2 3,-
3.3/
3.90
3.1;
3.40
3.10
3.04
3.0
3.9;
3 .4 9
3.94
3 .0 :
3.10
3 .9 3
3.;0
-1
11./:
-
94.4:
;0
91.14
--
19./9
-/
9-.04
;0
91.14
-0
19.4-
-
94.4:
;1
93.4
-1
91.00
-
91.:3
;0
19.--
--
90.31
-/
99.-
;0
19.--
-0
99.1
-
91.:3
;1
19.1-
-.;3
- / .4 3
91./:
-.43
--.;/
- : .1 9
-;.19
0;.;9
-:.;3
DARIO EDUARDO
Elec#!oCo%, a co%an+ #$a# %an("ac#(!es elec#!onic co%onen#s "o! #$e in#!o'(c#ion in i#s i#s %ain %ain lan#, lan#, s(bco s(bcon#!ac n#!ac## i# *i#$ *i#$ co%an+ co%an+ s(e!)isi s(e!)ision on o! i" i# b(+s b(+s i# "!o% "!o% an e=#e!n e=#e!nal al s( s( !o?ec#e' !o"i#s, in %illions
11-
199
191
19:
199
101
19-
19:
3 .9 1
3.9:
o e erm $e e &om'a$ s ou r o ge a e er es ma e o e e. se dema$d #es# mar.e# s#ud s#ud o% 'o#e$+al 'o#e$+al 'rodu&# 'rodu&# dema$d is e'e&#ed #o re'or# a %avor %avora a f. - #es# P(F/low) = 0,2
P(D/low) = 0,8
P(F/low avera erage) = 0,3
P(D/ lo low avera erage) = 0,7
P(F P(F/hig /high h med mediu ium) m) = 0,3 0,35 5
P(D/ P(D/ high high medi medium um)) = 0,65 0,65
P(F/high) = 0,5
P(D/high) = 0,5
g. ha# is #he e'e&#ed value o% mar.e# resear&h i$%orma+o$
i$%orma+o$ h. ha# is #he e4&ie$& o% #he i$%orma+o$
3.91 3.9: 3.9/ 3.99 3.91 3.9: 3.9/
3.99
NODE 1
3.91 3.9: 3.9/ 3.99 3.91 3.9: 3.9/ 3.99
19./1 109.0 100.: 103./-
(_∕ 〖 )= 〗 ((∕_ )(_))/(())
3 .9 1
3.9:
6AVORABLE
3.9
3.0
UN6AVORABLE
3.:
3.
3 .9 1
3.9
3 .9 :
3.0
3 .9 /
3.0-
3 .9 9
3.P568
3 .9 1
3.:
3 .9 :
3.
3 .9 /
3.;-
3 .9 9
3.P568
3.19 3.93.03 3.00 3.19 3.93.03 3.00 3.19 3.93.03 3.00 3.19 3.93.03 3.00
3.93.03 3.9: 3.1 3.93.03 3.9: 3.1
3.93.03 3.9: 3.1 3.93.03 3.9: 3.1
Val(e o" e!"ec# in"o!%a#ion@ VEIM2 VEcIM F VEsIM VEcIM2
100.: %illions o" 'olla!s
VEsIM2
199.33 %illions o" 'olla!s
VEIM
11.:
1133./04-/40/0
INCON GUTIERREZ
!o'(c# ca#alo, %(s# 'eci'e *$e#$e! #o %an("ac#(!e a ne* !o'(c# in lie!. T$e !o"i#s 'een' on #$e 'e%an' o" #$e !o'(c#. T$e #able s$o*s " 'olla!s.
103
14-
10:
140
10:
140
109
10/
3.9/
3.99
le (F) or u$%avorale u$%avorale (U) &o$di+o$ he releva$# &o$di+o$al 'roaili+es 'roaili+es are1
11-
94.1-
199
04.1;
103
0.
14-
01./
191
9-.41
19:
0-.:4
10:
43.39
19./1
109.0
140
01.4;
199
9-.;9
101
0;.;:
10:
43.39
140
01.4;
19-
9;.9-
19:
0-.:4
109
0:.9:
10/
03.-:
100.:
103./-
TE BEST DECISION 100.: MILLONS O6 DOLARS
VEcIP2 53,91819-J53,9:8101J53,9/8 VEcIP 2 104,:- %illions o" '
P567lo*8 2 3,9
P5D7lo*8 2 3,:
P567lo* a)e!ae8 2 3,0
P5D7 lo* a)e!ae8 2 3,
P567$i$ %e'i(%8 2 3,0-
P5D7 $i$ %e'i(%8 2 3,;-
P567$i$8 2 3,-
P5D7$i$8 2 3,-
3.9/
3.99
3.0-
3.-
3.;-
3.-
3.34
3.19
3.3:
3.9-
3.13
3.03
3.11
3.00
3.04
3.1
3.9-
3.93
3.03
3.1/
3.9:
3.11
3.1
3.;;
11-
14.01
199
03.0;
103
0/.13
14-
4.9;
191
1-.3;
19:
01.:;
10:
41.-3
140
4;.;1
199
1-.1:
101
09.;3
10:
41.-3
140
4;.;1
19-
1-.-;
19:
01.:;
109
0/.3
10/
4-.03
11-
9/.1;
199
0;.3/
103
0;.//
14-
94.3:
191
03.;:
19:
0.:
10:
0/.9;
140
90.4
101.30
10-.30
10-./3
109.41
19;.09
101.-;
4-.:
199
03./4
101
0:.;
10:
0/.9;
140
90.4
19-
01.3
19:
0.:
109
0.-;
10/
90.3:
109.3
103.93
:./9
0:J53,99814
lla!s
100.:
DARIO EDUARDO RIN
Te!a#e=#+l, Te!a#e=#+l, a #e=#ile co%an+ #$a# $as a !o'(c#i)e e=e!ience in #$e "o!ein %a!>e# o" 03 on #$e #$e 'e% 'e%an an
:-
:
:
:1
:9
:-
:0
:-
:-
:
3 .0
3.99
o e erm $e e &om'a$ s ou r o ge a e er es ma e o e . se dema$d #es# mar.e# mar.e# s#ud s#ud o% o% 'o#e$+al 'o#e$+al 'rodu&# 'rodu&# dema$d dema$d is is e'e&#ed e'e&#ed #o re'or# re'or# a %avor %avora a j. - #es# P(F/low) = 0,22
P(D/low) = 0,78
P(F P(F/lo /low av averag erage) e) = 0, 0,
P(D/ P(D/ low av averag erage) e) = 0,6 0,6
P(F/ P(F/hi high gh med mediu ium) m) = 0,33 0,33
P(D/ P(D/ hig high h medi medium um)) = 0,67 0,67
P(F/high) = 0,2
P(D/high) = 0,58
k. ha# is #he e'e&#ed value o% mar.e# resear&h i$%orma+o$ l. ha# is #he e4&ie$& o% #he i$%orma+o$ i$%orma+o$
3.0 3.99 3.93.90
3.0 3.99 3.93.90 3.0 3.99
NODE 1
3.93.90 3.0 3.99 3.93.90 3.0 3.99 3.93.90
:/.94 :9./4 :-.:;.9: ::.9:
(_∕ 〖 )= 〗 ((∕_ )(_))/(())
3 .0
3.99
6AVORABLE
3.99
3.4
UN6AVORABLE
3.:
3.;
3 .0
3.99
3.99
3.4
3.9-
3.00
3.90
3.49 P568
3 .0
3.:
3.99
3.;
3.9-
3.;
3.90
3.-: P568
3.93 3.9; 3.93.9/ 3.93 3.9; 3.93.9/ 3.93 3.9; 3.93.9/ 3.93 3.9; 3.93.9/ 3.93 3.9;
3.93.9/
3.93 3.9; 3.93.9/ 3.93 3.9; 3.93.9/ 3.93 3.9; 3.93.9/ 3.93 3.9; 3.93.9/ 3.93 3.9; 3.93.9/ Val(e o" e!"ec# in"o!%a#ion@ VEIM2 VEcIM F VEsIM VEcIM2
:/./1 %illions o" 'olla!s
VEsIM2
:/.94 %illions o" 'olla!s
VEIM
3.;
ON GUTIERREZ
+ea!s, %(s# 'eci'e i" i# %an("ac#(!es a ne* !o'(c# in i#s %ain lan#, o! i" on #$e con#!a!+ #$e (!c$ase "!o% a ' o" #$e !o'(c#. T$e #able s$o*s !o?ec#e' !o"i#s, in %illions o" 'olla!s.
/1
/-
:-
:/
:
/3
:
/1
:/
/0
3.9-
3.90
le (F) or u$%avorale u$%avorale (U) &o$di+o$ he releva$# &o$di+o$al 'roaili+es 'roaili+es are1
:-
9-.-
:
1/.14
/1
99.-
/-
91.:-
:/.94
:
90.4
:1
1.:9
:-
91.9-
:/
93.4
:9
94.;
:-
1:.
:
91.-
/3
93.
:0
94./
:-
1:.
:
91.-
/1
93./0
:-
9-.-
:
1/.14
:/
99.9-
/0
91.0/
:9./4
:-.-
:;.9:
::.9:
TE BEST DECISION :/.94 MILLONS O6 DOLARS
VEcIP2 53,08:-J53,998:J53.9-8/ VEcIP 2 :/.94 %illions o" 'ol
P567lo*8 2 3,99
P5D7lo*8 2 3,:
P567lo* a)e!ae8 2 3,4
P5D7 lo* a)e!ae8 2 3.;
P567$i$ %e'i(%8 2 3,00
P5D7 $i$ %e'i(%8 2 3,;
P567$i$8 2 3,49
P5D7$i$8 2 3,-:
3.9-
3.90
3.00
3.49
3.;
3.-:
3.3
3.93
3.3/
3.9;
3.3:
3.9-
3.13
3.9/
3.00
3.90
3.0-
3.10
3.93
3.1
3.9-
3.10
3.93
3.;
:-
1;.:4
:
99./:
/1
99.-4
/-
9.--
:
1-.4-
:1
91.43
:-
91.3-
:/
9-.:1
:9
1;.9-
:-
99.4;
:
91.--
/3
9;.13
:0
1;.4-
:-
99.4;
:
91.--
/1
9;.0/
:-
1;.:4
:
99./:
:/./1
:0.9
:;.0-
:;.:4
9/./-
:/
99.34
/0
9;./
:-
1;.:4
:
99./:
/1
99.-4
/-
9.--
:
1-.4-
:1
91.43
:-
91.3-
:/
9-.:1
:9
1;.9-
:-
99.4;
:
91.--
/3
9;.13
:0
1;.4-
:-
99.4;
:
91.--
/1
9;.0/
:-
1;.:4
:
99./:
:/
99.34
/0
9;./
.
:/./1
:0.9
:;.0-
:;.:4
::.:4
-/./;
n e=#e!nal s(lie!. T$e !o"i#s 'een'
1J53,908/
lla!s
:/./1
