Transport Accidents
Transport Accidents
Transport Accidents
Transport Accidents
Severe Weather
Severe Weather
HL10
HL11
HL12
HL13
H17
H18
HL10 - Local accident on motorway and major trunk roads.
HL11 - Railway Incident.
Multiple vehicular incident causing up to 10 fatalities and up to 20 casualties. Will result in closure of roads and disruption to the road network.
4
Causing up to 30 fatalities and up to 100 casualties (fractures, internal injuries, burns less likely) including possible fatalities. Environmental pollution dependant on loads carried on goods trains. Road access will be difficult or impossible.
1
HL12 - Local accident involving Causing up to 50 fatalities and up to 500 casualties transport of hazardous chemicals. including indirect contamination, if substance covers a wide area. Evacuations may be required from within the affected area. Likely impact on the environment and access to the site may be affected.
HL13 - Maritime accident or deliberate blockage resulting in blockage of access to key port, estuary, maritime route for more than one month
Causing possible fatalities / injuries minor. Loss of port is likely to have an initial wider impact, but will quickly reduce as shippers seek alternative ports or methods of shipping. Economic impact on local dependent businesses.
H17 - Storms & Gales
Storm fo rce w in ds affecting mos t of the c oun ty for at least 6 hours. Most inland, lowland areas experience mean speeds in excess of 55 mph with gusts in excess of 85 mph. Consequent damage to infrastructure (eg telecommunications, power, transport).
H18 - Low temperatures and heavy snow
Snow lying over most of the country for at least one week. Most lowland areas experience some snow falls in excess of 30cm, some drifts in excess of 1m, and in period of at least / consecutive days with daily mean temperatures below -3°C. Consequent d amage to infrastructure (eg telecommunications, power, transport).
Hazardous chemical traffic is not thought to vary significantly at local levels, so likelihood will be similar throughout. However, a high density of hazardous chemical infrastructure in area may affect likelihood scores.
4
4
3
After an initial large fall of snow, there is further snow fall on and off for at least 7 days. Most lowland areas experience some falls in excess of 10 cm, some drifts in excess of 50cm, and a period of at least 7 consecutive days with daily mean temperatures b elow -3°C.
4
Severe Weather
Structural Incident
Structural Incident
Structural Incident
HL20
HL21
HL22
HL23
HL20 – Flooding Local Fluvial (flash Flooding)
HL21 - Land movement (tremors and landslides)
HL22 - Building collapse
HL23 - Bridge Collapse
Heavy localised rainfall in steep valley catchments leading to extremely hazardous flash flooding (e.g. high velocities and depths). Likely that no flood defences in place. Probably no flood warning service available / or suddenness of event means timely flood warnings are not possible. Flooding of up to 200 properties. (NB: the outcome is essentially the same as H44 – dam or reservoir failure).
Assumes: Very little time to evacuate (as little as 15 minutes). Flooding lasts less than 24 hours. Emergency services not pre-warned Extent of downstream effect could reach 30-50km. Significant local infrastructure damage - gas, electricity supplies, telecommunications, road and rail links.
Roads and access routes impassable for a time. Emergency access into/out of large populated areas difficult or impossible; severe congestion over wide geographical area. Loss of power and other essential services over wide geographical area. Potential for a number of persons to be trapped or missing either in landslide itself and/or in collapsed structures. Up to 5 fatalities depending on the size and location of land movement.
Such incidents are rare within the UK with some areas being more prone to landslides than others. Geography and climatic conditions will determine likelihood.
Potential for a number of persons to be trapped or missing. Localised loss of power and other essential services. Local access routes affected due to road closures. Up to 5 fatalities depending on the size and construction of building, and occupation rates.
A number of such incidents annually within the UK. Some areas will be more at risk than others due to age of local building stock.
Roads, access routes and transport infrastructure impassable for considerable length of time. Severe congestion over wide geographical area. Emergency access into/out of large populated areas severely restricted. Potential for a number of persons to be trapped or missing.
Such incidents are rare within the UK.
4
2
1
2
Human Health
Human Health
Human Health
Human Health
Animal Health
Animal Health
Civil Protest / Public Disorder
Civil Protest / Public Disorder
H24(a)
H24(b)
HL24(a)
HL24(b)
H25
H26
HL42
H31
H24(a) - Severe Acute Respiratory Based on US figures, outbreak will cause between 250- SARS outbreak 2000 casualties. Syndrome (SARS)
H24(b) - West Nile Virus
Causing up to 9,000 hospitalisations with approximately 200 deaths.
2
6
3
2
6
Medium
HL24(a) - Meningococcal Disease Localised outbreak of a disease which could cause up to 10 fatalities and up to 50 casualties, with no variation in likelihood between localities.
HL24(b) - Legionnaires Disease
Medium 3
Medium
Localised outbreak of a disease which could cause up to 10 fatalities and up to 50 casualties, with no variation in likelihood between localities.
4
2
8
4
2
8
Medium
H25 - Non-zoonotic notifiable animal disease transmitted within a species, e.g. Foot and Mouth Disease, Classical Swine Fever, Blue Tongue and Newcastle disease
Slaughter of up to 2 million affected and exposed livestock plus the possibility of a significant number of animals culled for welfare reasons.
Outbreak of foot & mouth disease starting in upland, extensively farmed area taking into account changes to policy and current livestock movement data.
H26 - Zoonotic notifiable animal diseases. Can be transmitted between animal species / humans (e.g. Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, rabies, West Nile Virus)
Culling of up to 120 million poultry (HPAI) or euthanasia of up to 20 companion animals (plus the possibility of wildlife being affected (Rabies). For West Nile Virus spread by viable vectors in the UK the slaughter of 201000 horses is a possibility
HL42 - Emergency services and other workers providing a service critical to the preservation of life (eg doctors & nurses): Loss of cover due to industrial action.
A number of three day strikes with significant support over a two month period affecting a single emergency service.
H31 - Significant or perceived significant constraint on the supply of fuel e.g. industrial action by contract drivers for fuel.
Filling stations, depending on their locations, would start None to run dry between 24 - 48 hours. Panic buying would exacerbate the situation. Replenishment of sites would take between 3 - 10 days depending on location.
Medium
2
3
6
Medium
2
3
6
4
2
8
Likelihood and impact will vary between, and geographically within, emergency services.
Medium
4
2
8
Civil Protest / Public Disorder
Civil Protest / Public Disorder
International Events
Business Failure
Business Failure
Business Failure
H28
H29
HL43
H39
H40
H41
H28 - Large Scale public protest e.g. Political
Events Likely to involve 100’s of highly motivated protestors on site including a hardcore of 25+ requiring a local / regionally coordinated Police response
2
3
6
H29 - Targeted disruptive protest, e.g. Fuel Protest
Nationally co-ordinated protest that could generate shortages of essential supplies, and lasts for up to 1 week.
4
2
8
HL43 - Influx of UK residents into the Dyfed Powys LRF area
Up to 10,000 British nationals deciding to return to UK to a single region within a 4-6 week period following serious regional conflict, a sustained terrorist campaign against UK and other Western nationals, or an uncontrolled outbreak of pandemic flu and seeking support services in the Dyfed Powys area for a period of up to 1 month.
H39 - Failure of water infrastructure or accidental contamination with a non-toxic contaminant.
Medium
Medium
High
4
Loss of or non-availability for drinking, of the piped water Domestic, industrial, commercial and agricultural supply, for up to 50,000 people, for more than 24 hours premises without piped water. Lack of water for fire and up to 3 days. fighting. Water Companies required to provide at least 10 litres per person per day until supply restored. However, could lead to suspension of services at hospitals, schools, and businesses etc which do not maintain their own on-site water storage.
H40 - No notice loss of significant telecommunications infrastructure in a localised such as a fire, flood or gas incident
Loss of telecommunications for up to 100,000 people for Building damage to a large urban telecoms facility. up to 72 hours. Possible impact on emergency services including disruption to proposed Emergency Services Control Centres.
H41 - Technical failure of electricity network (Blackstart)
Partial or total blackout for up to 3 days. Destabilisation of the National Grid. Possible loss of life support machines, civil unrest, no alarms, street lighting etc. Back up generators available for limited time in some instances.
Occurs in winter and blackout lasts for up to 3 days. Isolated rural areas reconnected within a few hours. “Power Islands” created over the first day. Most of the country reconnected within three days, London late on in the process. Peak demand not able to be met after three days.
3
12
High
4
3
12
Medium
5
2
10
High
3
3
9
Business Failure
Business Failure
Business Failure
H43
H45
H49
H43 - Telecommunication infrastructure – Human error
Widespread loss of telecommunications (including Assume emergency services’ communication systems public land line and mobile networks) at a regional level are also affected. for up to 5 days.
H45 - Technical failure of electricity network
Total shutdown of electricity supply over whole of Wales, occurring during working week and lasting for 24 hours.
H49 - Loss of drinking water supplies due a major accident affecting infrastructure.
Loss of or non-availability for drinking, of the piped water Domestic, industrial, commercial and agricultural supply, for a population of up to 200,000 for more than premises without piped water. Lack of water for fire 24 hours and up to one week.. fighting. Water Companies required to provide at least 10 litres per person per day until supply restored; requires a multi-agency response due to prolonged nature of outage and logistics. Could lead to suspension of services at hospitals, schools, and businesses etc which do not maintain their own on-site water storage. Food industries within the impacted zone may close.
High 3
3
9
3
3
9
High
High
4
3
12