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INSTITUTO TECNOLOGÍCO DE CERRO AZUL
DEPARTAMENTO DE INGENIERIA INDUSTRIAL
ING. CATALINA LUNA MANZANO
PRONOSTICOS DE VENTAS PARA LA TIENDA “SUPER 7”
PRESENTAN: MORALES SANTIAGO MANUEL ENRIQUE PASCUAL LIRA NERY HAZIEL LOBATOS SANTOS PABLO FLORES DEL ÁNGEL LUIS ENRIQUE FIGUEROA MORENO JOSÉ DE JESS
Contenido
INTRODUCCI1N.......................................................................................................CARACTERIZACI1N DEL LUGAR................. LUGAR.......................... ................. ................. .................. ................................2 .......................2 D3(4"(5( ,! ,36*"3+%)38.................. ,36*"3+%)38........................... .................. .................. ................. ................. .................. .................. .................2 ........2 O"4(834"(5(...........................................................................................................9 D!6)"3)38 ,!& "#+&!5(.................. "#+&!5(........................... .................. .................. ................. ................. .................. .........................; ................; OBJETIVO............... OBJETIVO........................ .................. .................. .................. ................. ................. .................. .................. ....................................; ...........................; MARCO TE1RICO............. TE1RICO...................... .................. .................. .................. ................. ................. .................. ..................................; .........................; M<*#,#6 )%(&3*(*3=#6 ("( "#86*3)#6..................... "#86*3)#6............................. ........................................; ................................; C#86%&*( ( &( >%!"$( ,! =!8*(................... =!8*(........................... ................. .................. .................. .................. ................. ..............7 ......7 J%"(,# ,! #3838 !?!)%*3=(................... !?!)%*3=(............................ .................. ................. ................. .................. .................. .................7 ........7 M<*#,#6 )%(8*3*(*3=#6 )% (8*3*(*3=#6 ("( "#86*3)#6.................... "#86*3)#6............................. ................................. ..............................7 ......7 M<*#,# ,! 6!"3!6 6!" 3!6 ,! *3!5# )#8 "#5!,3#6 5=3&!6................... 5=3&!6............................ ......................@ .............@ M<*#,# ,! 6%(=3$()38 !#8!8)3(&................... !#8!8)3(&............................ .................. ...................................... ............................. DESARROLLO................ DESARROLLO......................... ................. ................. .................. .................. .................. .......................... ..................................... .................... M<*#,# ,! )#86%&*( ( &( >%!"$( ,! =!8*(......... =!8*( ................. ................. .................. ..................................... ............................ M<*#,# ,! ?%"(,# ,! #3838 !?!)%*3=(......................... !?!)%*3=(..................................... ......................................./ .........................../ M<*#,# ,! 6!"3!6 ,! *3!5# )#8 "#5!,3#6 5=3&!6......................... 5=3&!6.........................................../ ................../ M<*#,# ,! 6%(=3$()38 !#8!8)3(&.................... !#8!8)3(&............................. ................. ......................................./.............................../RESULTADOS........................................................................................................./2 CONCLUSIONES............... CONCLUSIONES....................... ................. .................. .................. .................. ................. ................. ................................./9 ......................../9 R!>!"!8)3(6............................................................................................................../@
INTRODUCCI1N E8 &( ()*%(&3,(, !6 ,! >%8,(5!8*(& 35#"*(8)3( ("( &(6 !5"!6(6 !& )#8*(" )#8 5#,! ,! "#86*3)#6 %! &!6 !"53*(8 "!,!)3" !& )#5#"*(53!8*# ,!& 5!")(,#' ( 6!( ( )#"*#' 5!,3(8# # &("4# &($#' ( %! *#,#6 5#=353!8*#6 ,! 38=!8*("3#6 =!8*(6 6! *"(,%)!8 !8 35#"*(8*!6 *"(86())3#8!6 5#8!*("3(6' &(6 )%(&!6 63 8# 6! "!(&3$(8 ,! 5(8!"( (,!)%(,( 8#6 #,"(8 #)(63#8(" 35#"*(8*!6 <",3,(6' %,3!8,# &&!=(" ( 8%!6*"( !5"!6( 38)&%6# ( &( %3!+"(.
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O"4(834"(5(
Julia Morales Hernández (Dueña y administradora)
Luisa Martínez (Empleada de mostrador)
Tello Perez Tello (Empleado encarado de almacen)
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F t
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n
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t
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Donde: F es el pronóstico T es el periodo de tiempo actual, lo que significa que Ft es el pronóstico para e periodo de tiempo actual. At es la demanda real en el periodo t, y n es el número de periodos que se utiliza
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272 + 269 + 273 + 271 + 274 5
= 271.8
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4(5( ,! "!,3))3#8!6 "!,3))3#8!6 56 >3(+&!6 #63+&!6 #63+&!6 !8 +(6! ( !6*#' ,!)3,3" ,!)3,3" !& 5<*#,# 5<*#,# 56 (,!)%(,# ("( &(8$(" !& "#,%)*# (& 5!")(,#. L( !36*!8)3( ,!& 5<*#,# ,! "!,3))38 )%(&3*(*3=( )%(8*3*(*3=( 6#8 %8( ,! &(6 !""(53!8*(6 56 !6!8)3(&!6 ("( "(" &&!4(" ( +%!8(6 )#8)&%63#8!6' ( %!' )#8 !6*(6' ( 6!( )#8 ,(*#6 (8*!"3#"!6 # 8#' 6! )#5"!8,! )#5"!8,! 5!?#" )#5# 6! 5#=3 )3!"*# "#,%)*# )%& >%! 6% 35()*# !8 !& 5!")(,#' *#,# !6*# )#8 !& #+?!*3=# ,! ,!*!"538("' ,! &( 5365( 5(8!"( !& 35()*# %! )(%6("(' !"# !8 !& >%*%"#. P#" &*35#' "!6%&*(,#6 %! #+*%=35#6 !8 8%!6*"( 38=!6*34()38 !8 &( *3!8,( (+(""#*!6 “6!" 7” (""#?("#8 )#5# "!6%&*(,#6 !%!(6 ,3>!"!8)3(6 !8*"! 5<*#,#6 %! 6! (&3)("#8 ,!8*"# ,! &( 5365(' !8 ,#8,! %,35#6 #+6!"=(" %! 8384 8384%8 %8# # ,! 5<*# 5<*#,#6 ,#6 (&3 (&3)(, )(,#6 #6 !6 *#*( *#*(&5 &5!8* !8*! ! !()* !()*#' #' 56 56 638 638 !5+( !5+("4# "4# )#8)&%35#6 %! ,! 6!" #63+&! 6! ,!+! ,! (&3)(" !& 5<*#,# )%(8*3*(*3=# ( %! ("*!8 ,! %8( +(6! 6&3,( )#5# )#8 ,(*#6 36*"3)#6.
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!e"erencias
P(6*#"' G. 6.>.. (stad)stica *+sica. R#?(6' S. A. 6.>.. De la idea a tu empresa, una guia para los nueos empresarios. L35%6( N#"3!4( E,3*#"!6.