que son los modelos deterministicos y su importanciaDescripción completa
resolucion pronosticos ejercicios krajeuski
Descripción completa
Matlab
Manual de capacitacion de pronosticos
Ejercicios
Para complementar conocimientos en claseDescripción completa
Descripción completa
resolucion pronosticos ejercicios krajeuski
Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
Rigoberto Aliaga Pablo Gatica
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Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
¿Qué es un Pronostico? Son
predicciones de lo que puede suceder o esperar.
Emitir
un enunciado sobre lo que es probable que ocurra en el futuro . Es
el proceso de estimación en situaciones s ituaciones de
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Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
IMPORTANCIA Disminuyen
la incertidumbre sobre el futuro.
Juegan
un papel muy importante en el proceso de planificación de una organización. Son
la base para la planificación de presupuestos y control de costos.
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Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
Características de los Pronósticos Todas
las situaciones en que se requiere r equiere un pronóstico, tratan tiempo.. con el futuro y el tiempo
Otro
elemento siempre presente en situaciones de pronósticos
incertidumbre.. es la incertidumbre
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Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
Clasificación •Pronostico Incondicional : Las observaciones en las variables
endógenas y en las variables explicativas ya se conocen con certeza durante el periodo pronosticado
•Ex ante: También predice valores de la variable dependiente más allá del periodo de estimación original
•Pronostico Condicional: Los valores para una o mas variables
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Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
Criterios para la selección del Pronostico •Periodo Inmediato Corto Plazo Medio Largo Plazo
•Patrón de Datos
Menos de un mes. Más de un mes a 3 meses. Más de 3 meses a menos de 2 años. 2 años o más.
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Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
Ejemplos de Pronósticos •Crecimiento económico. •Coeficiente de inflación. •Intensidad de tráfico.
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Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
Etapas a seguir en un Pronóstico 1. Recopilación de Datos.
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Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
Sector Automotriz DEMANDA
EJEMPLO PRONÓSTICO
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Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
PRONOSTICO FINANCIERO
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Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
ACEROCAP desea que se le determine el pronostico de ventas para el siguiente Números Años Venta/ Tendencia año de acuerdo Millones a:
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Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
EJEMPLO Supongamos que es relativamente la demanda a largo plazo para el producto que se estudia, y que seria deseable una constante de suavizamiento del 0.05. Si se estuviera utilizando en forma continua el método exponencial, se habría obtenido un pronóstico para el mes anterior. Suponga que éste (Ft-1) fue de 1050. Si la demanda real fue 1000, el pronóstico para este mes s eria: t-1 + ά (At-1 + F t-1 t-1 F1 = F t-1 ) )
= 1050 + 0.05 (100 - 1050)
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Errores de Pronostico Al hablar de errores de pronóstico, es conveniente establecer la diferencia entre las fuentes de error y la medición del error.
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Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
Critica a los métodos de pronostico •Presuposición •Tendencia inalterable •Lapso de tiempo a que se refiere el pronóstico
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Administración Administración Funcional II Métodos de Pronósticos y Proyección
