Lessons from my 20s
Part III:
THE WORLD
ABOUT THIS PRESENTATION
THIS presentation can be found Online at www.hive.org/20s
PART 3 TOPICS PART 3 “THE WORLD” INCLUDES SECTIONS ON
HUMAN RIGHTS MILLENNIALS Human progress CLIMATE CHANGE SYSTEMs thinking The innovation age WORLD 2050
Lessons from my 20s
PART III, Section 1
HUMAN RIGHTS
A THOUGHT EXERCISE
Let’s begin this section on Human rights with a
Famous thought exercise
A THOUGHT EXERCISE
IMAGINE YOU WERE a soul Hanging out around a campfire IN A CAVE with
five other souls
A THOUGHT EXERCISE
NOW IMAGINE that god gave you and the five other souls The task of determing the
Principles for the world
A THOUGHT EXERCISE
God said that the principles for the world should be fair and That you all must agree on them
Before you could be born
A THOUGHT EXERCISE
None of the six of you know yet where you’ll be born The color of your skin Your sexual orientation Your gender Or how much money Your parents will have
A THOUGHT EXERCISE
And your task is to come up with the principles for the world That you can all agree on Before you can be born into your bodies
A THOUGHT EXERCISE
What principles would you come up with for the world?
A THOUGHT EXERCISE
What principles would you come up with for the world if you didn’t know where you’ll be born The color of your skin Your gender Your sexual orientation how much money Your parents will have
A THOUGHT EXERCISE
Take a moment to write down at least 2 principles for the world That would create a fair society
A THOUGHT EXERCISE
This famous thought exercise Is called “The original position” th And was created by 20 century Harvard professor & philosopher
John Rawls
A THOUGHT EXERCISE
John rawls writes about The original position In his 1971 classic
A theory of justice
“The most reasonable principles of justice are those everyone would accept and agree to from a fair position.” - John Rawls, 20th Century Philosopher!
A THOUGHT EXERCISE
Here are the two principles We have come up with at Hive That would create a just world
The First principle
1
All people would have the same basic Rights regardless of birthplace, gender, Sexual orientation, or skin color
The second principle 2
All people would have access To the basic human needs of food, water Shelter, medicine, education, and electricity
What would be the implication of these principles?
IN THIS WORLD WOULD YOU prevent some PEOPLE FROM TRAVELING to other places While others could
Travel Freely
SIMPLY BASED ON WHERE THEY WERE BORN?!
What would be the implication of these principles?
IN THIS WORLD WOULD YOU ENSURE EVERYONE HAD ACCESS TO FOOD, WATER & SHELTER OR JUST
SOME PEOPLE?
What would be the implication of these principles?
IN THIS WORLD WOULD YOU ENSURE EVERYONE HAD ACCESS TO basic education and medicine or just
SOME PEOPLE?
What would be the implication of these principles?
IN THIS WORLD WOULD YOU ENSURE THAT ALL INFANTS HAD LIFE SAVING IMMUNIZATIONS OR JUST RESERVE THOSE
FOR SOME INFANTS?
What would be the implication of these principles?
IN THIS WORLD WOULD YOU CONDEMN SOME BABIES TO DEATH BECAUSe CANCER TREATMENTS
WEREN’t available?
What would be the implication of these principles?
WHAT TYPE OF WORLD WOULD YOU CREATE IF YOU DIDN’t know where you
WOULD BE BORN?
The world we can create
THIS IS THE WORLD WE CAN ACTUALLY
CREATE
IN OUR LIFETIME!
The world we can create
A WORLD IN WHICH FREE SPIRIT AND ENTERPRISE
IS ENCOURAGED
The world we can create
A WORLD IN WHICH Everyone has access to Their basic needs
The world we can create
A WORLD that is run On clean energy
The world we can create
A WORLD IN WHICH PROPERTY RIGHTS
ARE RESPECTED
The world we can create
A WORLD IN WHICH GOVERNMENTs are RUN
EFFICIENTLY AND TRANSPARENTLY
The world we can create
A WORLD IN WHICH EVERY CHILD
IS GIVEN THE ABILITY TO LEARN TO INNOVATE
TO CREATE TO CONTRIBUTE
The world we can create
A WORLD IN WHICH EVERY CHILD IS ASSURED ACCESS TO THEIR BASIC NEEDS ELECTRICITY EDUCATION
MEDICINE FOOD
WATER
SHELTER
% of people without basic human needs Basic human need
% Without
# Without
Source
1. Clean Water
10.8%
780M
UNICEF
2. Sufficient Food
12.8%
925M
UNFAO
3. Basic Shelter
13.8%
1.0B
UNHCR
4. Literacy
12.7%
920M
UNESCO
5. Basic Medicine
23.6%
1.7B
WHO
6. Electricity
18.0%
1.3B
IEA
The world we can create
IMAGINE THE JOB CREATION AND THE HUMAN INNOVATION
As we GO FROM 3B To 9 BILLION PEOPLE WHOSE BASIC NEEDS ARE MET
Ending Poverty in Singapore in 50 years
SINGAPORE IS AN INTERESTING CASE… In 1960 its per capita income was $428 By 2011 per capita income grew to $50,123
How did Singapore END POVERTY in one LIFETIME?
Ending Poverty in Singapore in 50 years While many have criticised a lack of political FREEDOM HERE ARE SOME THINGS leadership GOT RIGHT in singapore Low tolerance of corruption High pay of public officials to attract best talent and discourage bribery An efficiently run government with competent leadership Government budget surpluses Focus on ease of starting a business Focus on a scientific knowledge-based economy Focus on export-led growth Low taxes A clean environment
A GOOD QUESTION FROM Bucky “How do we make the world work for 100% of humanity in the shortest possible time through spontaneous cooperation without ecological damage or disadvantage to anyone?” - Buckminster fuller !
Human Rights?
WHAT IF THERE WERE A DOCUMENT ESTABLISHING THE RIGHTS OF HUMANS THAT THE USA AND 48 other COUNTRIES Had already ADOPTED?
A universal declaration of human rights?
There actually is It’s called the Universal declaration of human rights And it was adopted in 1948
A universal declaration of human rights?
A universal declaration of human rights?
A universal declaration of human rights?
What if we actually created A human society Based upon these principles?
The world we can create
We will be the first generation To be connected globally
The world we can create
And we will have the opportunity To reshape THE WORLD Into a joyous, sustainable, and abundant WORLD
The world we can create
Let’s work together on this In the decades to come
Human rights exercise
You can do the following 5 minute Human rights exercise now
Or put a time on your calendar To return to it
Human rights EXERCISE
Exercise: human rights
Write down two principles you would Create for the world if you were a Pre-birth soul and didn’t know where you’d be born, your skin color, your gender, or your Parent’s income
Exercise: human rights
Now, write down: Are you committed to working toward Creating a world based on those principles?
Why or why not?
Lessons from my 20s
PART III, Section 2
HUMAN progress
A few important questions
SOMETIMES WITH ALL THE NEGATIVE HEADLINES IT’s HARD TO zoom out and And look at THE ANSWER TO A very IMPORTANT QUESTION
How are we doing?
HOW IS OUR SPECIES
DOING?
How are we doing?
Is humanity DOING better or worse than
40 years ago?
Progress
Is humanity making
Progress?
Measuring Progress
And can“progress”
Be measured?
SOME EXISTING MEASURES OF HUMAN PROGRESS
1. United Nations Human Development Index 2. Legatum Prosperity Index 3. Social Progress Index (SPI) 4. Gross National Happiness (GNH)
SOME EXISTING MEASURES OF HUMAN PROGRESS
The challenge with these four measures Is that they provide data at a country level
Not at a human level
Measuring human progress
WE NEED A MORE COMPRENSIVE Measure OF HUMAN PROGRESS
How humans are doing
WHAT IF WE COULD AGREE On METRICS THAT TOLD US HOW OUR SPECIES IS DOING?
How humans are doing
We’d probably look for data in AREAS LIKE
Health education PEACE Economics environment
How humans are doing
Here are the exact measures we use at hive To track human progress at a species level
How humans are doing
Health Education ! Peace! Economics ! Environment!
1. Life Expectancy 2. Infant Mortality 3. Literacy 4. Internet Access 5. Active Conflicts 6. Deaths From War 7. Average Income 8. Global Poverty Rate 9. CO2 PPM 10. Temperature Increase
How humans are doing
Let’s look at how we’re doing As a species across THESE
10 metrics
The global report card
Health
1. Life Expectancy
1980
63
2012
71
12% Higher Source: World Bank
2. Infant Mortality 59% Decline 1980
11.6%
2012
4.8% Source: World Bank
The global report card
EDUCATION
3. Literacy Rate 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
1980
70%
84%
20% Higher
20% 10% 0% 1980
2012
1990
1995
2000
2012
4. Internet Access 1980
0%
2012
36% Infinitely Higher
The global report card
PEACE
0
Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program
2013
2012
2011
2010
6
2009
13
2008
2008-2013 Avg.
2007
1980-1985 Avg.
2006
14
2005
16
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
2
1985
4
1984
1983
6
1982
8
1981
1980
5. Active Major Conflicts
18
54% Lower
12
10
6. Deaths from War 90000
18% Lower
80000
Even as global population has expanded 45%
70000 60000
Syria conflict has caused recent spike
50000 40000
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
0
1985
33,159
1984
40,370 1983
10000
1982
2008-2013 Avg.
1981
1980-1985 Avg.
1980
20000
2001
30000
The global report card
ECONOMICS
7. Annual Income Per Person 74% Higher 1980
2012
$5960
$10395
Population & Income Over 2000 Years 8
$10395
Billions of People on Planet
7 The!Informa5on!Age!
6
$6055
5 4
The!Industrial!Age!
$2111 3 The!Enlightenment!
2
$1261 The!Renaissance!
1
$666 $467
$453
$450
$566
$605
0 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
The time to get to now
IT took humans 13.78 Billion yearS TO EVOLVE
Time to 1B People
IT took humans 200,000 years to reach1B people
POPULATION AND INCOME GROWTH
BUT just 200 years to go from 1b to 7B
POPULATION AND INCOME GROWTH
NEVER BEFORE HAVE WE HAD SO MANY PEOPLE
POPULATION AND INCOME GROWTH
NEVER BEFORE has our species had SO much wealth
0.0% 2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
1980
2003
2002
2001
43.6%
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
10.0%
1992
20.0%
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
90.0%
1986
100.0%
1985
60.0%
1984
70.0%
1983
80.0%
1982
1981
1980
8. % Living in Extreme Poverty 2012
16.9%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
61% Lower
LOOKING GOOD SO FAR…
So things are Looking up, right?
LOOKING GOOD SO FAR…
Mostly, except for The environment
LOOKING GOOD SO FAR…
Which sort of Underpins
Everything else
The global report card
ENVIRONMENT
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
334
2001
1980
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
270
1990
1989
1988
290
1987
310
1986
330
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
9. CO2 in Atmosphere (Parts Per Million) 390
370
350
2012
395
19% Higher
250
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0.61° 2007
1980
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0.2
1998
0.6
1997
0.4
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1.4
1983
1.6
1982
1981
1980
10. Surface Temperature Increase (F°) 1.8
125% Higher
1.2
1.0
0.8
2012
1.37°
0.0
The Global Report Card
Environment!
1. Life Expectancy
63
71
! 12%
A
2. Infant Mortality
11.6%
4.8%
59%
A
3. Literacy
70%
84%
! 20%
B
4. Internet Access
0%
36%
! Infinite
B
5. Active Conflicts
13
6
6. Deaths from War 40,370
54%
33,159
18%
B
B
7. Average Income
$5.9k
$10.4k
! 74%
A
8. Poverty Rate
43.6%
16.9%
61%
B
334
395
! 19%
F
+0.61°
+1.37°
! 125%
F
9. CO2 PPM 10. Temp. Increase
!!
Economics!
Grade
!!
Education ! Peace!
% Change
!!
2013
!!
Health
1980
What would a 5 DeGree farenheight increase mean? “As the Arctic continues to warm, melting permafrost in the boreal forests and further north in the Arctic tundra is now starting to melt, triggering the release of methane, a greenhouse gas twenty times more powerful than CO2, from thick layers of thawing peat.” - Climate Code Red
Lots of progress on the abundance side HOW LONG WE LIVE
1812 30
2014 70
25%
4%
98%
17%
$700
$10800
Average life expectancy globally
INFANT MORTALITY Infant deaths before age 5 globally
POVERTY % Under $1.25 per day globally current $
Avg. annual INCOME
Inflation adjusted to current $
The key challenge for our generation
So they key challenge is how we can together create An abundant and sustainable world For all people
Lessons from my 20s
PART III, Section 3
SYSTEMS THINKING
WHAT IS A SYSTEM?
A SYSTEM is
A COLLECTION OF PROCESSES
THAT INTERACT
SYSTEMS THINKING
SYSTEMS THINKERS INTEGRATE knowledge
ACROSS DISCIPLINES
SYSTEMS THINKING
SYSTEMS THINKERS UNDERSTAND
COMPLEXITY & NUANCE
SYSTEMS THINKING
SYSTEMS THINKERS BUILD
MENTAL MAPS
Three Types of SYStems
1. 2. 3.
INTERNAL SYSTEMS EXTERNAL SYSTEMS ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
INTERNAL SYSTEMS EXAMPLEs
RESPIRATION CELL REPLICATION DIGESTION IMMUNE SYSTEM HORMONAL REGULATION NEURAL PLASTICITY
EXTERNAL SYSTEMS EXAMPLEs
GLOBAL TRADE ELECTRICAL GRIDS ACADEMIC ADMISSIONS COMPANY METRICS REPORTING ELECTIONS THE INTERNET
EXTERNAL SYSTEMS EXAMPLEs
CONDENSATION GEOLOGICAL FORMATION ELECTROMAGNETIC ENERGY NUCLEAR FUSION GAMMA WAVES EVOLUTION
AN example of external systems theory
JAMES LOCKLOCK’s GAIA HYPOTHESIS EXPLORED THE EARTH as one self-regulating Interconnected system Of biosphere, atmosphere, Oceans, and soil
The great SYSTEMS THINKERS
Some of the most well known Systems thinkers in last century were Donella meadows Albert einstein Thomas Edison Buckminster fuller JAMES LOVELOCK
Lessons from my 20s
PART III, Section 4
WORLD 2050
The World in 2050
Here are some predictions About What will happen
In the next 40 years From the pardee center For international futures
World Population Will RISE
GLOBAL POPULATION WILL RISE to
9.2 Billion
Energy DEMAND WILL INCREASE
GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND WILL go up
2.3x
CO2 output from fossil fuels
FOSSIL FUEL USAGE WILL PEAK THEN
DECLINE
Mobile phones per 100 people
The average person Will have >1 Cloud connected Mobile device
Global Life Expectancy
WE LIVE LONGER AS LIFE EXPECTANCY REACHES
77
Infant Mortality
FEWER BABIES DIE As INFANT MORTALITY Goes under 10 per 1000
GDP Per Capita (In thousands)
WE BECOME WEALTHIER Global GDP PER CAPITA UP
140%
POVERTY DECLINES RAPIDLY
Extreme POVERTY nearly eliminated
% living on <$1.25 Per Day
Down 78%
Secondary education completion
WE ARE BETTER EDUCATED SECONDARY SCHOOLING up
52%
COLLEGE EDUCATED
% oF PEOPLE WITH COLLEGE DEGREES
UP159%
WOMEN WITH COLLEGE EDUCATION
UP 189%
MORE OF US WILL LIVE IN CITIES
PERCENTAGE IN CITIES UP
32%
Major innovations are coming
NANOTECHNOLOGY 3D Printing GENOME SEQUENCING SYNTHETIC LIFE PRIVATE SPACE TRAVEL DESALINATION
Governments will have to adapt
INCREASED GOVERNMENT TRANSPARENCY OPEN GOV DATA APIS STRONGER PROPERTY RIGHTS EASIER TO START A BUSINESS BETTER co2 REGULATIONS REMAINING REGIMES OVERTHROWN
MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL CHANGES
CHINA WORLD’S LARGEST GDP INDIA THE MOST POPULOUS NATION AFRICA 2B People + ECONOMIC POWER FOSSIL FUEL PRODUCERS LESS INFLUENCE INSECURITY UNTIL WE LOWER EMISSIONS
AFRICA BECOMES AN ECONOMIC POWER
Lessons from my 20s
PART III, Section 5
MILLENNIALS
It’s our turn to lead
MILLENNIALS WILL BE LEADING
THE NEXT 40 YEARS People born between 1980 and 2000
SO what’s different about millennials?
SO What’s different ABOUT Millennials?
SO what’s different about millennials?
WE ARE DEEPLY AWARE
OF SOCIAL ISSUES
SO what’s different about millennials?
WE UNDERSTAND THE IMPORTANCE OF A
SUSTAINABLE WORLD
SO what’s different about millennials?
WE SEE BUSINESS & ENTREPRENEURSHIP AS TOOLS TO MAKE A SCALABLE POSITIVE CHANGE IN THE WORLD
SO what’s different about millennials?
WE ARE USED TO A FASTER PACE OF CHANGE
& ARE IMPATIENT with the
Status quo
SO what’s different about millennials?
WE ARE CONNECTED GLOBALLY THROUGH
TECHNOLOGY LIKE
NEVER BEFORE
SO what’s different about millennials?
WE NOW HAVE THE TOOLS TO HOLD
CORRUPT LEADERS
ACCOUNTABLE
AND CREATE THE MOMENTUM TO OVERTHROW THEM
OUR GREAT OPPORTUNITY
OUR GREATEST opportunity Is creating a sustainable world IN WHICH EVERY HUMAN HAS ACCESS TO FOOD, WATER, SHELTER EDUCATION, MEDICINE, ELECTRICITY
OUR GREAT OPPORTUNITY
THE GOOD NEWS IS WE GIVE A DAMN HAVE THE TECH TOOLS CAN INNOVATE LIKE HELL AND ARE HIGHLY COMPETENT
Lessons from my 20s
PART III, Section 6
CLIMATE CHANGE
Co2 traps heat
AN INCREASE IN Co2 IN AN ATMOSPHERE TRAPS HEAT & MAKES THE
TEMPERATURE GO UP
35
30
25
20
15
1900 1903 1906 1909 1912 1915 1918 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Carbon emissions 40
ANNUAL CO2 OUTPUT HAS INCREASED FROM 4GT To 40GT SINCE 1900
10
5
0
410
390
370
350
1900 1903 1906 1909 1912 1915 1918 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
CO2 in the atmoshphere
CO2 Parts per million HAVE INCREASED FROM 293 to 401 SINCE 1900
330
310
290
270
Surface Temperature change over 1937 baseline 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80
EARTH’s AVERAGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE HAS RISEn 1.3°F SINCE 1967
0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 -0.20 -0.40
1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Source: NOAA
The link between co2 and temperature
In 1896, Swedish scientist svante arrhenius FIRST Showed the link between the amount Of co2 in the atmosphere
and temperature!
97% of Scientists Agree that co2 " Higher temps
As of 2010, 97% of American CLIMATE SCIENTISTS BELIEVEd the INCREASE In earth’s TEMPERATUREs IS CAUSED BY
INCREASED CO2 in the ATMOSPHERE
21st century temperature increases
THE IPCC INDICATES GLOBAL Surface TEMPERATURES wILL INCREASE ANOTHER 3.4° to 7.9°F
Sea Levels Rising
A 5°F increase in Surface TEMPERATURES WOULD INCREASE SEA LEVELS by ~11 FT
Hundreds of millions of refugees
An 11 foot sea level rise would mean:
BANGLADESH UNDER WATER 35% of FL Under water 20% of NYC Under Water
Moving to a clean energy economy
TO stop this we must
Move away from fossil fuels As quickly as we can
Moving to a clean energy economy
We must move away from coal, oil, and natural gas
And to clean energies like solar, wind, geothermal, and Biofuels As quickly as we can
What would a 5 degree (F) increase mean? “In the pliocene, three million years ago temperatures were 5 degrees (F) higher than our pre-industrial levels, so it gives us an insight into the five-degree world. The northern hemisphere was free of glaciers and icesheets, beech trees grew in the transantarctic mountains, sea levels were 25
metres higher” - Climate Code red!
What would a 5 degree (F) increase mean?
“Between 3 and 5 degrees (F) the Amazon rainforest, whose plants produce 10 percent of the world's photosynthesis and have no evolved resistance to fire, may turn to savannah, as drought and mega-fires first destroy the rainforest, turning trees back into carbon dioxide as they burn or rot and decompose” - Climate Code red!
What would a 5 degree (F) increase mean? “As the Arctic continue to warm, melting permafrost in the boreal forests and further north in the Arctic tundra is now starting to melt, triggering the release of methane, a greenhouse gas twenty times more powerful than CO2, from thick layers of thawing peat.” - Climate Code red!
What would a 5 degree (F) increase mean?
“There are thousands of gigatons of methane beneath the seas, comparable to the amount of carbon contained in the Earth’s coal deposits. And, as the Arctic waters warm, some of this methane is likely to bubble up into the atmosphere.” - Ezra klein!
The current debate
THE CURRENT DEBATE DOES NOT RECOGNIZE THE GRAVITY OF THE SITUATION
A huge economic threat
INCREASED TEMPERATURES ARE INEVITABLE AND ARE ON TRACK TO THREATEn OUR Economy + CIVILIZATION
Passed to 400 PPM Barrier
WE ARE At 401 CARBON PPM AS OF 2014
Past the 400 PPM Barrier
WHERE WE STABILIZE CARBON PPM WILL DRASTICALLY AFFECT
The type of world Our children live in
We Passed the 400 PPM Barrier
500 PPM
WE MUST DO ALL WE CAN AS A SOCIETY TO NEVER GO ABOVE
500 PPM
350 PPM
AND to get back To 350 PPM Where we were in
1987
The Historical perspective on CO2
Steps we can take
THERE ARE STEPS WE CAN TAKE TO REDUCE C02 output MORE QUICKLY
Steps we can take
1) STOP FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES 2) PRICE IN THE COST OF C02 pollution cleanup 3) INVEST IN energy & geoengineering R&D 4) SubSIDIZE RENEWABLE ENERGY USE 5) INCREASE ENERGY EFFICIENCY
1. STOP subsidizing fossil fuel production
Every year the usa Provides $11.5b in Subsidies to the Oil industry This needs to stop Immediately
2. Price in cost of co2 cleanup
FOSSIL FUELS ARE CHEAP BECAUSE THE COST OF CLEANING UP CO2 POLLUTION IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE PRICE Let’s FIX THIS and CORRECT THE INCENTIVES TO USE FOSSIL FUELS
3. INVEST IN RENEWABLES & GEOENGINEERING RESEARCH
WIND, SOLAR, BIOFUELS, & FUSION HAVE GREAT PROMISE As does carbon SEQUESTRATION And other geoengineering techniques
FUNDING GeoENGINEERING RESEARCH
GEOENGINEERING TECHNIQUES LIKE carbon sequestration SOLAR RADIATION MANAGEMENT CLOUD SEEDING and VERTICAL OCEAN PIPING Are worthy of careful research
US Govt spends 457x more on military than renewables
USA ANNUAL DEFENSE BUDGET
$640 BILLION USA ANNUAL RENEWABLES R&D
$1.4 Billion
SOMETHING IS OFF HERE…
U.S. ANNUAL DEFENSE BUDGET $640 BILLION U.S. ANNUAL FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES $11.5 Billion USA ANNUAL RENEWABLES R&D $1.4 Billion
4. Subsidize renewables R&D
iN ORDER TO INCREASE MARKET INVESTMENT IN RENEWABLES IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS WHILE THE R&D iS CONDUCTED WE SHOULD SUBSIDIZE THE COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
5. INCREASE ENERGY EFFICIENCY
EFFICIENT BUILDINGS SMART 2-way grids SMART APPLIANCES
CLEAN ENERGY
INVESTING IN CLEAN ENERGY FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES IS OUR BEST BET TO REDUCE THE COMING ECONOMIC COST OF CLIMATE CHANGE
GRID PARITY is coming
SOLAR POWER WILL BE LESS EXPENSIVe THAN GRID POWER BY 2020 This moment will be the
THE TIPPING POINT
GRID PARITY is coming
$0.25 >! $0.04 COST OF SOLAR
COST OF GRID
RETAIL COST PER KWH IN USA
RETAIL COST PER KWH IN USA
2014
GRID PARITY is coming THIS IS A BIG DEAL
$0.04 =! $0.04 COST OF SOLAR
COST OF GRID
RETAIL COST PER KWH IN USA
RETAIL COST PER KWH IN USA
2020
The apollo mission of our generation
It’s a race to GRID PARITY
THIS IS OUR MOON LANDING
THE PRESIDENT HAS YOUR BACK “We're issuing a challenge. We're telling America's scientists and engineers that if they assemble teams of the best minds in their fields, and focus on the hardest problems in clean energy, we'll fund the Apollo projects of our time. At the California Institute of Technology, they're developing a way to turn sunlight and water into fuel for our cars. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, they're using supercomputers to get a lot more power out of our nuclear facilities. With more research and incentives, we can break our dependence on oil”
– President Obama, State of the union address, January 26, 2011
FUNDING RESEARCH
The JOINT CENTER FOR ARTIFICIAL PHOTOSYNTHESIS IS THE DOE’S
SOLAR RESEARCH HUB
ENERGY USAGE
Humans ARE using 15 Terawatts of power ANNUALLY
ENERGY USAGE
Humans are EXPECTED TO need 40 Terawatts of power
PER YEAR by 2050
2012 SOURCES OF GLOBAL ENERGY PRODUCTION 0.7% 6.5%
6.5% Fossil Fuels Nuclear Hydro Solar/Wind/Bio
86.3%
The potential oF THE SUN
THE SUN PROVIDES ENOUGH ENERGY IN A MINUTE TO POWER THE EARTH FOR A YEAR
What if?
WHAT IF THERE WERE MICROORGANISMS WHOSE FOOD SOURCE WAS CARBON DIOXIDE
AND THEIR OUTPUT WAS FUEL?
The potential of algae
ALGAE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WORLD’s FUTURE RENEWABLE FUEL SOURCE
The potential of algae
BIOFUELS PRODUCED FROM SYNTHETIC ALGAE SHOW GREAT PROMISE FOR RENEWABLE FUEL PRODUCTION
The potential of algae
ALGAE CONSUME CARBON DIOXIDE PRODUCE FUEL And REQUIRE 1/7th the LAND OF CORN-BASED ETHANOL
iN SUMMARY
CLEAN ENERGY IS OUR Generation’s Apollo MISSION
Lessons from my 20s
PART III, Section 7
The Innovation Age
About this section
This final section called “the innovation age” Is about The trends I am seeing in history and humanity And where that may lead us in
The Decades ahead
A Timeline of history
TO PUT everything In perspective Here is a timeline of Earth’s history
A big picture timeline of earth
Formation of Universe (13.8B Yrs Ago)
Formation of Earth (4.5 B Yrs Ago)
Formation of The Sun (4.6B Yrs Ago)
Oceans Form (3.8B Yrs Ago)
Plants Form (500M Yrs Ago)
Land Animals (400M Yrs Ago)
Dinosaurs (250M Yrs Ago)
Dinosaurs Extinct (65M Yrs Ago)
Pangea Shifts (200M Yrs Ago)
A human Timeline
TO further PUT THINGs In perspective Here is a timeline of human history
HUMAN HISTORY TIMELINE
Chimps diverge (5.4M Yrs Ago)
Fire (400,000 Yrs Ago)
Homo Erectus (2.3 M Yrs Ago)
Homo Habilis (2.3 M Yrs Ago)
Homo Erectus (1.8M Yrs Ago)
Language (100,000 Yrs Ago)
Homo Sapiens (200,000 Yrs Ago)
The human story
And at a very simplified Level, here’s the story Of the last 13.8B years (as far as we know so far)
The Great story of humanity
Once upon a time
All matter was in a single point
The Great story of humanity
Then a massive
Explosion we call The big bang occurred
The Great story of humanity
initially there was no life in the universe
The Great story of humanity
The universe was A VAST expanse
Of matter and energy
The Great story of humanity
THEN ALONG CAME
CARBON ATOMS
The Great story of humanity
WHICH COULD
ENCODE INFORMATION
The Great story of humanity
AND MOLECULES
EVOLVED
The Great story of humanity
A BILLION YEARS LATER
DNA EVOLVED
The Great story of humanity
AND from CHEMISTRY came
LIFE
The Great story of humanity
ORGANISMS EVOLVED DECISION networks called
NERVOUS SYSTEMS
The Great story of humanity
NEURONS Aggregated INTO
BRAINS
The Great story of humanity
Brains formed frontal
cortexes
The Great story of humanity
And emotions and reason
formed
The Great story of humanity
WE WENT FROM ATOMS to MOLECULES TO DNA TO BRAINS to
awareness!
The Great story of humanity
Now that’s
awesome!
The Great story of humanity
BRAINS PLUS OPPOSABLE THUMBS created
TOOLS
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE CREATED
LANGUAGE
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE started
farming
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE FORMED
CITIES
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE CREATED
WRITING
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE CREATED
MATHEMATICS
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE CREATED the
Scientific method
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE DISCOVERED A WAY OF ORGANIZING OUR EFFORTS (We called it a company – which in Latin means to “break bread with”)
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE CREATED a system for funneling money to people working together effectively to create value for humans we called it “capitalism” it created incentives for creating what humans want we had to improve it a few times before it worked for everyone And We still have some reforms to go
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE CREATED
A SYSTEM FOR sharing risk so that we could allocate money to projects that create what humans want
We CALLED IT THE “FINANCIAL SYSTEM” And it took a while before we made sure the right rules were in place so it worked for everyone
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE DISCOVERED
ELECTRCITIY
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE DISCOVERED
Stored ENERGY WATER " STEAM " Oil/Gas/Coal " nuclear " SOLAR / WIND / BIOFUEL / FUSION
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE invented
engines
The Great story of humanity
That’s when things really
TOOK OFF
The Great story of humanity
With energy & engines So much became possible
The Great story of humanity
THAT BROUGHT US THE
INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
The Great story of humanity
using machinery one human could be more efficient than ever before LEADING TO MUCH HIGHER LIVING STANDARDS
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE CREATED
FLYING MACHINES
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE sent encoded messages
Through the air
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE built
computers
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE built A global network of
computers
The Great story of humanity
THEN WE built Pocket-sized
supercomputers And we called them “smartphones”
Now, We Are Entering the innovation Age
The Industrial Age
The industrial age began with The invention of the engine And ended with the invention of the
computer
The Information Age
The INFORMATION age began In 1950 With The invention of the computer And will end when 50% of humanity
is connected
The Information Age
In mid-2014 40% of humanity has access To the cloud. By the end of 2015 this figure is on track to reach a tipping point
Of 50%
The impact of a connected world
The impact of more than half of Humanity finally being connected Will further accelerate change
A new age is upon us
i believe the world is going to look So different in the decades ahead That we should consider ourselves
Entering a new age
The innovaiton age
I suggest we call this new age
The innovation age
The INNOVATION AGE
Instead of the lucky few having Access to free cloud education Soon all humans will be able to access
EdX, wikipedia, khanacademy Itunesu, udemy, and coursera
The INNOVATION AGE
As we enter the innovation age in 2015 We stand on the shoulders of Giants who have come
Before us
The INNOVATION AGE
Synthetic biology is here Clean energy is here Global connection is here The platforms have been built
The INNOVATION AGE
We are entering the most exciting Time in human history FOR Creators and
Innovators
The INNOVATION AGE
The greater the cultural interconnection The faster memes can replicate, Learnings can be shared, and progress can
Be made
The INNOVATION AGE
The rate of human progress Is a function of the rate of ideas
spreading
The INNOVATION AGE
And The rate of ideas spreading is a function of the speed of communication tools And the level of species interconnection
Human cultural evolution
We’re culturally evolving as a species Faster than ever before due to rapid Communication tools that are spreading Understanding and connection across borders faster than any time in
Human History
Human cultural evolution
The speed of communication tools The level of species-wide literacy And the level of species interconnection Are all rapidly increasing Leading to the rapid evolution of
Human culture
Human cultural evolution
There is a palpable sense that the leaders Of the millennial generation See beyond the divisions of national borders And religious identities that have kept Human beings apart for
Millennia
Digital Natives
The four billion digital natives born Between 1980 and 2015 intuitively Understand global connection, Species-level identity, and innovation And will be leading the next
40 years
What millennials see
Millennials see entrepreneurship As a tool for
good
What millennials see
And we see efficient, effective Transparent, and tech-enabled Government as
Essential
Socially RESPONSIBLE CAPITALISM
In the 200 year debate of Socialism vs. capitalism it is socially responsible capitalism that will win built on a foundation of efficiently-run Cloud enabled
Government
The GREAT OPPORTUNITY
Our next great opportunity is creating A carbon-neutral world in which Every human being has access to what They need to
Create & ThRive
Entering the innovation age 1712-1950
The industrial age
1950-2015
The information age
2015-2050
The innovation age
Entering the innovation age
WE’re entering THE
innovation AGE!
Entering the innovation age
the age of ubiquitous global connection to people and information For everyone not just the wealthy
Entering the innovation age
Soon everyone will have a cloud-connected supercomputer in their
pocket
Entering the innovation age
Education will be
democratized
Entering the innovation age
Atrocities will be
publicized (Better publicized, at least)
Entering the innovation age
Bad leaders will be
exposed
Entering the innovation age
Dense Networks of world changers will be
constructed
Entering the innovation age
Imagine the world we can create
Entering the innovation age
Imagine the world we WILL create
Entering the innovation age
It’s time to show our parents what we can do
Lessons from my 20s
Staying in touch
Let’s work together
Let’s find a way to WORK TOGETHER AS A GENERATION TO CREATE A WORLD THAT IS SUSTAINABLE IN WHICH ALL PEOPLE HAVE ACCESS TO BASIC HUMAN NEEDS AND EVERYONE Can
ACHIEVE THEIR DREAMS
Exercises
Now that you’re at the end Don’t forget to put time on your calendar To go back and
Do the exercises
Join the Hive network
Hive is building a global network Of leaders & entrepreneurs under 40 Dedicated to creating a better world I’d love for you to apply to join us
www.Hive.org
Program Influences Here are programs I have participated in the last ten years that have shaped my perspectives. Thank you to all of the individuals behind these great organizations.
For Further Reading The following resources were extremely valuable in the creation of this work:
Films: Connected by Tiffany Shlain Mankind by The History Channel The Commanding Heights by PBS The History of the World in Two Hours by The History Channel
Books: Abundance by Peter Diamandis The Rational Optimist by Matt Ridley Anticipating 2025 by The London Futurist Society The 100 Scientific Discoveries That Changed the World by National Geographic The Power of Habit by Charles Duhigg Rich Dad Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki Think and Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill How to Win Friends & Influence People by Dale Carnegie
If you enjoyed this presentation also check out
www.hive.org/book
www.startupguide.com
How to get in touch Send me a note or a Tweet. I’d love to hear from you!
[email protected] @ryanallis
Dedication Dedicated to Mom Pauline Ann Middleton Allis March 29, 1952 – May 25, 2012
A mother who inspired others to
1) Love Everyone 2) Be Confident 3) Dream Big
Lessons from my 20s
THE END