Modul Studi Kausalitas

Ogdpc Rtpdh Ogdpc  Rtpdh Alprlchtlr DV. OPDVLKLD APNBGVG# O.Rgb.Rb Ila lapc pctl tlr r @ag @agngoh ) Zlr lrbl blrl rlvvkln klnl PEO Gptchn`; … Chn`lv Z Zvv g f lfhcht x fl Ogd`c … A ` c ` o l m l n C ZO ZO … D l t l ; @DG

PKH ALPRLCHTLR EVLNE@V  

Evlne`v -<898( o`ozgrtpclrhaln  flmul rpltp ylvhlf`c ] dhaltlaln  o`nx`flfaln ylvhlf`c clhn# X# lzlfhcl X  rllt hnh dlzlt dhzv`dharh c`fhm flha  d`neln o`neepnlaln nhclh/nhclh olrl  clcp ]. R`flelholnl xlne dhtpchrnxl;  L ylvhlfc` ] hr rlhd tg blpr` lngtm`v ylvhlfc` X# uhtm  v`rz`bt tg l ehy`n hnigvolthgn r`t tmlt hnbcpd`r ] lnd  X# hi bpvv`nt X bln f` zv`dhbt`d f`tt`v fx prhne zlrt  ylcp`r gi ] tmln fx ngt dghne rg# ehy`n lcc gtm`v zlrt  hnigvolthgn hn tm` hnigvolthgn r`t hr pr`d.

T`vchmlt flmul t`gvh Evlne`v dhclndlrh ltlr lrporh r`kpoclm  hnigvolrh xlne o`olrpaaln ] dln X rllt hnh dln r`opl  hnigvolrh olrl clcp. Altlalnclm Lt ldlclm mhozpnln  hnigvolrh xlne t`clm t`vr`dhl d`neln t ?…# /<# :# <# 6# … D`neln clhn# lrporh xlne dhepnlaln ldlclm L?q-]# X(}. ]  dln X dhlneelz o`vpzlaln r`zlrlne dltl vpntpt ulatp  xlne o`ohchah agylvhlnr chn`lv xlne rtlrhgn`v -chn`lv  bgylvhlnb`/rtlthgnlvx tho` r`vh`r(. Gc`m alv`nl htp;  Xt ?  ∜  -<(  ∜  lh Xt/h !  ∜   ∜  fk ]t/k ! ο t ]t ?  ∜  -6(  ∜  bh ]t/h !  ∜   ∜  dk Xt/k ! γ t dh olnl - γ  t  # ο t(‘ t(‘ ldlclm ldlclm y`atgv y`atgv vlndgo vlndgo hnd`z`n hnd`z`nd`n d`n d`neln  d`neln  γt# vltl/vltl ngc dln oltvhar agylvhlnr t`vfltlr. Z`vrlolln < o`npnkpaaln flmul ylvhlf`c ]t elelc  o`nx`flfaln Xt lzlfhcl dlclo v`ev`rh Xt t`vmldlz X cle  dln ] cle# ag`ihrh`n ] cle rlol d`neln ngc. D`neln altl  clhn# fhcl fk?: -h?<# -h?<# 6# ..# a(# olal ]t elelc o`nx`flfaln Xt.

K@NHR Z@VTLNXLLN  Z@N@CHTHLN  

Pkh alprlchtlr dhclapaln alv`nl ldl thel  a`opneahnln lvlm alprlchtlr. Z`vtlol# ]  o`nx`flfaln X lzlfhcl mhzgt`rhr ngc xlne  o`nxltlaln fk?: d`neln k?<#..# a dlzlt  dhtgcla -chmlt z`vrlolln <(. A`dpl# X  o`nx`flfaln ] lzlfhcl mhzgt`rhr ngc xlne  o`nxltlaln fk?: d`neln k?<#..# a dlzlt  dhtgcla -chmlt z`vrlolln 6(. A`thel# mpfpneln  thoflc flcha t`vkldh lzlfhcl ] o`nx`flfaln X  dln zldl rllt xlne rlol X o`nx`flfaln ].

Bgntgm rtpdh; IHNLNB@/C@D EVGUTM  LTLP EVGUTM/C@D IHNLNB@7  



ldl dpl a`opneahnln mpfpneln  alprlchtlr lntlvl z`oflnepnln r`atgv  ihnlnrhlc dln z`vtpofpmln `agngoh# xlhtp; -<( d`olnd igccguhne# flmul  v`ndlmnxl z`vtpofpmln ihnlnrhlc  ldlclm olnhi`rtlrh apvlnenxl  z`vohntlln laln klrl ihnlnrhlc1  ltlpalm -6( rpzzcx c`ldhne# flmul  r`atgv ihnlnrhlc o`ndlmpcph dln  o`ndgvgne z`vtpofpmln r`atgv vhhc  -Zltvhba# <899(. z`vtpofpmln `agngoh vhhc dhpapv  d`neln z`vtpofpmln ENZ vhhc. D`neln  o`nxhofgcaln &o`nelahfltaln&  Rpof`v; Apnbgvg -<882( d`neln &//>&# laln dhpkh mhzgt`rhr  o`ne`nlh alprlchtlr r`flelh f`vhapt;   ‒   ‒   ‒   ‒ 

BO //> XE ltlpalm XE //> BO# OX //> XE ltlpalm XE //> OX# VD //> XE ltplalm XE //> VD# RNX //> XE ltlpalm XE //> RNX. RNX.

Z`vhntlm dlclo OhbvgTRZ 5.:

Nhclh rtlthrtha I  -Zvgflfhchtlr dlclo apvpne( Ihnlnb`/c`d  evgutm 

Evgutm/c`d  ihnlnb` 

BLPR@-9( XE BO

BO//>XE; 6.== -:.<9(

XE//>BO; <.44 -:.2=(

BLPR@-9( XE OX

OX//>XE; :.66 -:.80(

XE//>OX; 0.52 -:.:2(

BLPR@-0( XE VD

VD//>XE; <.<8 -:.42(

XE//>VD; 2.5: -:.:=(

BLPR@-0( XE RNX

RNX//>XE; :.42 -:.=<(

XE//>RNX; 6.:= -:.<=(

Clnealm/clnealm Dlclo @yh`ur  Epnlaln dltl @DG# zhchm vzpr dln rfh. Zldl flehln ltlr zhchm \phba  Evgpz Rtlthrthb  Evlne`v Blprlchtx T`rt

Olrpaaln agtla Cle Rz`bhihblthgn# olrpaaln lneal <

Mlrhcnxl r`flelh f`vhapt hnh;

Clapaln f`vpclne/pclne zldl agtla Cle Rz`bhihblthgn o`olrpaaln lneal 6# 2 dln 4 mlrhcnxl r`flelh f`vhapt; Zlhvuhr` Evlne`v Blprlchtx T`rtr Dlt`; :9'2:':9 Tho`; <4;49 Rlozc`; <880;:< <888;<6 Cler; 6 Npcc Mxzgtm`rhr; VZPR dg`r ngt Evlne`v Blpr` RFH RFH dg`r ngt Evlne`v Blpr` VZPR Zlhvuhr` Evlne`v Blprlchtx T`rtr Dlt`; :9'2:':9 Tho`; <4;48 Rlozc`; <880;:< <888;<6 Cler; 2 Npcc Mxzgtm`rhr; VZPR dg`r ngt Evlne`v Blpr` RFH RFH dg`r ngt Evlne`v Blpr` VZPR Zlhvuhr` Evlne`v Blprlchtx T`rtr Dlt`; :9'2:':9 Tho`; <4;0< Rlozc`; <880;:< <888;<6 Cler; 4 Npcc Mxzgtm`rhr; VZPR dg`r ngt Evlne`v Blpr` RFH RFH dg`r ngt Evlne`v Blpr` VZPR

d`neln

Gfr 0=

I/Rtlthrthb 4.9=460 6.9252:

Zvgflfhchtx :.:<228 :.:=:82

Gfr 05

I/Rtlthrthb 2.=68<< 6.:20=:

Zvgflfhchtx :.:<0<5 :.<6:55

Gfr 09

I/Rtlthrthb 2.:6649 0 2 0 49 5

Zvgflfhchtx :.:695= : :: <6 2