Datos de Ventas 2017 Ene X Y
Feb 1
22400
Mar 2
23001
Abr 3
24321
May 4
23203
Jun 5
21021
Jul 6
22433
Ago 7
23005
8 20140
ANÁLISIS DE RERESI!N "rodu#to$ "elu#%es & 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 22400 23001 24321 23203 21021 22433 23005 20140 ' 22400 46002 72963 92812 105105 134598 161035 161120 &(' 1 4 9 16 25 36 49 64 &2 501760000 501760000 5.29E+08 5.92E+08 5.92E+08 5.38E+08 5.38E+08 4.42E+08 4.42E+08 5E+08 5.29E+08 5.29E+08 4.06E+08 4.06E+08 '2 N=
B =
-281.5
' ) A =
2*707+2, - 2.1+,&
23707.25
/EFI/IENE DE /RRELA/I!N DE "EARSN r =
-0.5253
Interreta#34n$
Excel
r =
-0.5253
Existe correlación casi er!ecta ne"ati#a
/EFI/IENE DE DEERMINA/I!N 2 =
0.2760
Interreta#34n$
Excel
2 =
0.2760
$o tiene %n a&%ste ra'ona(le
"ron4st3#o de Ventas 201. )ni*a*es
Ene el%c,es 23 23426
Feb
Mar
Abr
May
Jun
Jul
23144
22863
22581
22300
22018
21737
Ago 21455
Ʃ
/E 4.5 *5 176,2 22440.5
7650*, 20 00557.05 8
Chart Tit! 30000 25000 f(x) = - 104.7380952381x^2 + 661.1428571429x + 22136.1785714285 R² = 0.4288032576
20000 15000 10000 5000 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Datos de Ventas 2017 Ene X Y
Feb
Mar
1 22400
Abr
2 23001
3 24321
May
Jun
4 23203
Jul
5
6
21021
22433
Ago 7
23005
8 20140
1!*h!. ra/, 2 30000
30000
25000
25000 f(x) = - 104.7380952381x^2 + 661.1428571429x + 22136.1785714285 R² = 0.4288032576
20000 15000
15000
10000
10000
5000
5000
0
"#!
$!%
&ar
'%r &a at, /! !#ta 2017
*#
*
f(x) R²
20000
0
',
1
!*h! ra/, 4 30000
30000 25000 f(x) = - 40.2878787879x^4 + 735.0858585858x^3 - 4618.3106060605x^2 + 11220.1489898988x + 14808.5000000001 20000 R² = 0.6772852048
25000 f(x) = - 25.87756 20000 R² = 0.924784869
15000
15000
10000
10000
5000
5000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
!*h! ra/, 6 30000 25000 f(x) = 8.4555555555x^6 - 254.1775641024x^5 + 2955.6340811946x^4 - 16721.0745920633x^3 + 47306.5519716062x^2 - 61339.1062 R² = 0.9713516941 20000
10000 5000 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Cuando es una polinomica de grado 6, su R2 es 0,9714 teniendo u
"ron4st3#o de Ventas 201. )ni*a*es el%c,es
1
2
*
,
5
7
.
22411
22933
24535
22853
21365
22194
23006
19990
1!*h!. ra/, 3
= 9.904040404x^3 - 238.4426406926x^2 + 1171.200937951x + 21645.9285714285 0.4336347636
2
3
4
5
6
7
!*h! ra/, 5
1026x^5 + 541.9573135198x^4 - 4095.3927738925x^3 + 13431.2903554768x^2 - 18155.8153263384x + 30667.749999999 3
2
3
4
353839x + 50453.7499999766
5
6
7
8
8
n ajuste razonable
Promedio !"il #imple
#=4 !ri,/,(t)
t
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
22400 23001 24321 23203 21021 22433 23005 20140
r,#, t ($t+1 - t '%("t) ($ t+1)
23231.25 22886.5 22744.5 22415.5 #uma
N=
Periodo$t%
&t
1
22400
2
2'001
'
24'21
4
2'20'
(
21021
6
224''
7
2'00(
)
20140
9 10 11 12
-2210.25 -453.5 260.5 -2275.5 -4678.75
"t2
'%("t)t
"tt
2210.25 4885205 0.1051449 -0.105145 453.5 205662.25 0.0202158 -0.020216 260.5 67860.25 0.0113236 0.0113236 2275.5 5177900 0.1129841 -0.112984 5199.75 10336628 0.2496683 -0.227021
4
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1299.9375 2584157 0.0624171 -0.056755
/! !!:%r! a a#t!ri,r!< !r, ! /ii!:%r!) #, ,.
Promedio !"il Ponderado
#=3 !ri,/,(t)
t
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
22400 23001 24321 23203 21021 22433 23005 20140
r,#, ($ t+1)
"t
"t2
'%("t)
t 22400 23001 24321 23203 21021 22433 23005 20140
"tt
0*4( 0*1 0*1 0*'(
22933.25 -1912.25 1912.25 22460.2 -27.2 27.2 23218.4 -213.4 213.4 22838.5 -2698.5 2698.5 #uma -4851.35 4851.35
3656700 0.0909686 739.84 0.0012125 45539.56 0.0092762 7281902 0.1339871 10984882 0.2354444 N=
!ri,/,(t) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
'%("t)t
0*4( 0*1
-0.090969 -0.001212 -0.009276 -0.133987 -0.235444
4
RT' ,, ! *!/! r,#,ar ara ! :! / ;*! ! *!#ta ,# a /!:a#/a , ,#/!ra/, ,rr!,#/i!#t! ara !t! :!< !r, ara , ! i:,i%! ,%t!#!r, i# /at,.
0*1 0*'(
22933.25 22460.2 23218.4 22838.5 21052.25
" ,#/!ra/, i!#/, %a>, !# , ri:!r, :! /ata r!a a ;*! !# , :!! /! !#!r, f!%r! /! a:,r a ;*! !# f!%r!r, ! !!%ra ! /ia /! ahi ! /,#/! ,*rr!# :a ! :,i:i!#t, /! a
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#ua"izaci!n ./ponencial
0.45
$t=
23001
r,#, ($ t+1)
"t
'%("t)
"t2
!ri,/,(t)
t
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
22400 23001 24321 23203
2'20'
21021 22433 23005 20140
23203 22221.1 22316.455 22626.3 #uma
'%("t)t
-2182 2182 4761124 0.103801 -0.103801 211.9 211.9 44901.61 0.0094459 0.0094459 688.545 688.545 474094.22 0.0299302 0.0299302 -2486.3 2486.3003 6181689 0.1234509 -0.123451 -3767.855 5568.7453 11461809 0.266628 -0.187876 N=
!ri,/,(t) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
t 22400 23001 24321 23203 21021 22433 23005 20140
4
0.45
23001 23595 23418.6 22339.68 22381.674 22662.171
!ri,/,(t) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
21(27*194
9
$T+1 2'001
"tt
10
10
11
11
12
12
t 22400 23001 24321 23203 21021 22433 23005 20140
0.9 $T+1 2'001
23001 24189 23301.6 21249.06 22314.606 22935.961 20419*(96
#ua"izaci!n ./ponencial
'& "&C "&' &"
1392.1863 2865452 0.066657 -0.046969
!ri,/,(t)
t
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
22400 23001 24321 23203 21021 22433 23005 20140
0.9
$t=
23001
r,#, ($ t+1)
"t
'%("t)
"t2
'%("t)t
2'20'
23203 -2182 2182 4761124 0.103801 21239.2 1193.8 1193.8 1425158 0.0532162 22313.62 691.38 691.38 478006.3 0.0300535 22935.862 -2795.862 2795.862 7816844 0.1388214 #uma -3092.682 6863.042 14481133 0.325892
RP3 3l analizar ambos , es ob"io 5ue se recomendaria u+lizar el 0*9 a 5ue con este "alor los datos se apegan mas a la demanda real * como en los casos anteriores solo se puede 8allar el pronos+co del mes de se+embre no de los demas*
"tt
-0.103801 0.0532162 0.0300535 -0.138821 -0.159353
'& "&C "&' &"
1715.7605 3620283 0.081473 -0.039838
'& "&C "&' &"
.&.i:! .&.,#/!ra/, *ai?ai,# 0.45 *ai?ai,# 0.9 1299.94 1212.84 1392.19 1715.76 2584156.95 2746220.43 2865452.19 3620283.27 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 -0.06 -0.06 -0.05 -0.04
'#ai?a#/, a /!:a#/a !ta r!!#ta ta#t, t!#/!#ia r!i!#t /!r!i!#t!. "t, ! ! r!@!>a/, !# , :At,/, /! *ai?ai r!,#/!# :!>,r a a :!/i/a /! '&< "&C "&' ,:ara r,:!/i,. "# !t! !#/,< i ! h*%i!ra:, ai#a/, a r,:!/i, ,#/!r :a,r !, ara , ri:!r, :!!< ! ,/rBa ,%t!#!r :!>,r! /! '&< "&C "&'. R!,:!#/a#/,! *i?ar ! r,:!/i, ,#/!ra/,.
! ,:, ;*! /, a , /, *# :!/i/a
Meses 2017
8un3dades9
Enero
211.1
Febrero
2,100
Mar:o
2,01
Abr3l
201,0
Mayo
16,00
Jun3o
1.710
Jul3o
1500
Agosto
167.0
Set3e;bre
20210
#tubre
2*,12
No<3e;bre
25,,5
D3#3e;bre
25.7
