Water Resources In Egypt

International Water Resources Association

Water International, Volume 32, Number 2, Pg. 205-218, June 2007

205

© 2007 International Water Resources Association

Water Resources In Egypt: Future Challeges and Opportunities Mohamed Nasr Allam Professor and Head of the Irrigation and Drainage Department, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, and Gamal Ibrahim Allam Professor, National Water Research Center, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation Abstract: Water is one of the most important inputs for economic development. As the demand increases, so too does the importance of water. This is clearly the case in Egypt, where rainfall is rare and the governmentally enforced quota for withdrawal from the Nile River has not changed since 1959. The water demand has multiplied as a result of population growth, agricultural expansion, as well as industrial development and a rise in the standard of living. In this paper, a vision for the future water status in Egypt is presented. This vision is based on a perception of the current status of the available water resources. The water uses, the water use efficiency, the institutional and legislative frameworks of water management, and the strategies and policies to rationalize water use and to augment water supply are discussed. The local, regional and international governing and controlling factors of water utilization and management in Egypt are also analyzed and discussed. Three future water scenarios for year 2020, each reflecting alternate programs to develop the water systems and to rationalize the water uses, are presented. All scenarios showed that Egypt will suffer considerable water shortages in the near future. Recommendations to help overcome anticipated water challenges and to optimize the available opportunities are provided. INTRODUCTION Water resources in Egypt are confined to the withdrawal quota from the Nile water; the limited amount of rainfall; the shallow and renewable groundwater reservoirs in the Nile Valley, the Nile Delta and the coastal strip; and the deep groundwater in the eastern desert, the western desert and Sinai, which are almost non-renewable. The non-traditional water resources include reuse of agricultural drainage water and treated wastewater, as well as the desalination of seawater and brackish groundwater.

users as well as consumers of water, while other sectors like river transport and hydropower generation only use water without real consumption. Most data available on water uses in Egypt are approximate and are not based on field measurement, because there is no measuring devices with accepted accuracy for the water uses for either irrigation or the municipal and industrial sectors. In this article, however, the data are checked, revised and also analyzed, and the best data that are consistent with the scientific estimates of the different uses, and in agreement with the available few measurements, are selected.

Agriculture in Egypt, as in most developing There is a real problem that needs to be countries, represents the main usage of water, followed, addressed, analyzed and resolved. Egypt has very but with a large margin, by the residential, industrial and limited, mostly imported, water resources and yet tourist uses. It is worth mentioning that these sectors are prepares very optimistic developmental plans. Indeed, IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007

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Water Resources In Egypt: Future Challeges and Opportunities

many governmental programs have been initiated or planned to rationalize water uses and increase their economic return. In this paper, the different water uses, as well as the existing and planned water conservation programs, are presented and discussed. Then, a proposal for future scenarios is introduced. Based on the results of these scenarios, the risks and opportunities are presented in order to facilitate the decision-making process. REVIEW OF WATER RESOURCES POLICIES AND PLANS IN EGYPT

water losses and optimally utilize those losses in equal shares. The new quota allowed Egypt to increase its cultivated area to reach 2.4 million ha. In 1975, the Ministry of Irrigation (MI) established a policy aimed at rebalancing the water status. Rebalancing was proposed through the rationalization of crop water applications, in light of studies and field experiments. The additional demands were to be satisfied by the reuse of drainage water, expansion of groundwater utilization especially in the Nile Delta region and the optimal use of rainfall on the northern coast.

In 1929, an agreement between Egypt and the United Kingdom, on behalf of Sudan, was signed to In 1977, MI began preparing the National Water ratify the historical Nile water rights for each country. Master Plan (NWMP) in collaboration with the German The recorded water rights were 48 billion �� cubic meters Development Bank (KFW) and UNDP. The NWMP (BCM) for Egypt and four BCM for Sudan. aimed at setting plans to satisfy water demands over a period of 20 years (1980–2000). In 1982, MI reset In 1933, the Government of Egypt (GoE) its water policy according to the results of the NMWP. implemented a water policy designed to benefit from The new policy showed that 11.7 BCM of extra water the extra storage of the Nile water upstream from the was needed to satisfy future water demands. The policy old Aswan reservoir after its second elevation. That showed that this additional water could be secured policy aimed at cultivating additional 160,000 ha in through Egypt’s share in the first phase of the Jonglie Lower Egypt and converting 208,000 ha from basin to canal (2.0 BCM/year), which was designed to trap a permanent irrigation, along with the establishment of small portion of Nile water losses in the Sudd region, public open drains in the permanent irrigation areas. southwest of Sudan. Ultimately, this plan was intended In 1948, GoE presented a memorandum to the cabinet to increase groundwater utilization up to 4.9 BCM/year showing that after 1950 there would be a pressing and to expand drainage water reuse practices up to 10 need to find extra water resources. The memorandum BCM/year. recommended several Upper Nile projects to increase the river flow and to avoid flood hazards. After the 1952 In 1994, Ministry of Water Resources and Revolution, the High Aswan Dam (HAD) project was Irrigation (MWRI) and the General Authority for Land presented to the Government and was approved. Its Reclamation prepared a comprehensive and ambitious construction was planned for inside Egypt, as compared plan intended to expand the country’s agricultural to the upper Nile projects. horizon by 1.28 million up to year 2025. This would be achievable by limiting the rice area to 280,000 ha; In 1959, an agreement between Egypt and Sudan improving surface irrigation projects; maximizing the had been reached for the optimal use of Nile Water as drainage water reuse, treated wastewater recycling, an integral part of 1929 agreement. According to the and optimizing groundwater utilization, as well as the agreement, the quota for Egypt and Sudan had been completion of the first phase of the Jonglie canal. increased by 7.5 and 14.5 BCM, respectively. These values were calculated according to the mean annual In October 1997, MWRI prepared a draft of natural Nile flow at Aswan, Egypt, from the recorded ‘Water Resources Strategy of Egypt Until 2017.’ The inflows for 70 consecutive years, i.e. 84 BCM/year. strategy also analyzed the projected water balance in Moreover, it was recommended to trap the Upper Nile year 2017 for three scenarios: the first is for reclaiming IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007

Dr. M. N. Allam and G. I. Allam 612,000 ha, the second is for reclaiming 0.9 million ha, and the third for reclaiming 1.36 million ha. Securing the required extra water (about 24 BCM) was to be accomplished through the completion of the first phase of Jonglie canal, an increase of groundwater utilization, water reuse practices, and a reduction of the areas of high water requirement crops (MWRI, 1997). WATER CONSERVATION AND MANAGEMENT PRACTICES Since the 1970’s, water uses in Egypt have exceeded the available resources. Accordingly, the government has provided additional resources by recycling drainage and wastewater, trapping water losses, and with water use rationalization practices. At present, municipal and industrial uses involve many negative aspects. These include high losses in the distribution networks; they also include the use of clean drinking water in small factories, workshops, car wash, and in irrigating backyards and public gardens. Other irrational uses include the absence of long-term technical or financial plans for preventive maintenance; and inadequate tariff policy. Municipal water distribution networks in Egypt have witnessed great expansions during the last three decades in order to cope with the rapid urbanization projects and increased population. In industry, several actions are required to rationalize water uses.

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the head and tail of the mesqa. The fourth benefit is the reduction of 50-60% of irrigation time due to improving the conveyance efficiency and irrigation scheduling. The findings of that research project were then used in a large improvement program (1984-1996) implemented by MWRI on an area of 156,000 ha in five Governorates. Another irrigation improvement project started in 1997 over an area of 100,000 ha. The irrigation and drainage law No. 12 for the year 1984 was amended to recover the relevant improvement cost from farmers at installments over twenty years without interest. There were also pilot projects to establish federations of WUA’s and to form water boards to take part in Operation and Maintenance (O&M) of branch canals. On the one hand, the various irrigation improvement projects have several positive impacts (Allam, 1995). On the other hand, there were various difficulties like the slow rate of implementation, high cost of improvement (about L.E 3,500/ha), weak monitoring and follow up programs, and funding problems for the pumping units for the raised mesqa (MWRI, 1998).

The government has imposed modern irrigation methods on farmers in the new lands. Due to the relatively high maintenance costs, farmers removed drippers or sprays and thus converted modern irrigation methods into surface irrigation. The government is planning to switch the orchards and other fruits farms into drip irrigation to save about 0.75 BCM/year. The The Irrigation Improvement Project (IIP) main obstacle that faces this program is providing the in Egypt was started due to the impetus of a leading funds needed for modernization, as farmers have no research project executed by the National Water significant incentive to share the cost as long as the Research Center (NWRC) in 1977-1984. The project government provides their water requirements free of examined various alternatives capable of improving the charge. on farm water management practices, including laser land leveling, developing mesqa (tertiary canal) and The high water requirements crops are mainly water distribution structures, and forming water users sugarcane, banana and rice. Sugarcane is cultivated associations (WUAs). This project provided several in Upper Egypt with a total area of less than 200,000 benefits. Firstly, it was responsible for land saving ha. Although one ha of sugarcane consumes triple the due to the construction of the improved mesqa. It was amount of water required for one ha of sugar beets, it found that 2% of the total command area of the mesqa is difficult to convert sugarcane agriculture into sugar could be saved for agriculture. The second benefit was beets. Firstly, because most of the existing sugar mills the increase in crop yield due to the better conditions are sugarcane mills. Secondly, sugar beet is a winter crop of water availability. The third is the equity of water and may not be suitable for the relatively hot climate distribution by improving the water allocation between of Upper Egypt. The solution may be the improvement IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007

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of the irrigation methods for sugarcane to decrease the losses, as well as a gradual reduction of sugarcane areas. The rice crop also presents a real problem for irrigation engineers. In light of the deregulation of the prices of crops, rice became one of the most important lucrative crops for farmers. Its grown areas gradually increased from about 280,000 ha by the mid-70’s to about 0.8 million ha in 2000. Rice has become one of the most important Egyptian exports in the agricultural sector. The real intentions of the government towards this crop are not yet clear. The banana farms, on the other hand, consume a lot of water. Most of the banana farms are in the newly reclaimed lands with sandy soils. No action has been yet taken to prevent or control these farms. WATER STATUS IN YEAR 2000 Table 1 shows that in year 2000, there was a balance between water uses and available resources (Allam, 2001). To evaluate the efficiency of the irrigation water system, figure (1) shows a simplified diagram of the system. As shown in the figure, the total losses of the water system, evaporation and outflow, were about 16.25 BCM. The losses were 29% of the network annual inflow. Water consumption was about 39.75 BCM/year, divided between agriculture (38 BCM), municipalities

and industry (1.75 BCM). The overall efficiency of the water system in the year 2000, which equals the consumption as a percentage of the total inflow, was about 71%. This efficiency is relatively high, taking into consideration that the prevailing irrigation method is surface irrigation, which has a low efficiency. This high system efficiency is probably attributed to the intensive efforts of MWRI in O&M, and to the current recycling practices, in addition to the considerable experience of Egyptian farmers. WATER ISSUES AND CONSIDERATIONS Water Shortage Egypt is located in a dry climate zone where rainfall is scarce and the desert covers most of the land. In addition to its fixed Nile quota, a deep groundwater reservoir, which is not renewable, may be utilized with a rate of 2.7 BCM/year over a period of 100 years. The higher the exploitation rate, the shorter the period of use will be. Egypt is now capable of satisfying its water needs, which are 25% more than the available water resources, through recycling of agriculture wastewater and trapping water losses. The water shortage is the main constraint and a major limiting factor facing the implementation of the country’s future economic

Water Uses (BCM/year) Sector

Water Resources (BCM/year)

Amount

Resource

Amount

Municipalities

5.25

Nile river

55.50

Industry

3.50

Groundwater (Delta and Valley)

5.50

River Transport

0.25

Deep Groundwater

0.8

Fisheries

-

Drainage Water Reuse

Hydropower

-

- Canals in the Delta Region

4.5

Agriculture

63.00

- Nile river and Bahr Youssef

5.0

- Illegal Uses

3.0

Waste Water Reuse

0.2

Rainfall and Flash Floods

0.5

Evaporation Losses Total

72.00

Table 1. Water Uses and Available Resources in Year 2000

(3) Total

72.00

IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007

Source: Allam (2001)

Dr. M. N. Allam and G. I. Allam

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Figure 1. Water Status in Year 2000

development plans. The Relations with the Nile Basin Countries Until today, none of the Nile basin countries has endorsed the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan. However, there had been many technical cooperation programs between Egypt and these countries. At present, both the Council of Ministers and the Technical Advisory Committee work to set up the legal framework necessary for regional cooperation among the Nile Basin countries. The previously studied water gains from the Upper Nile projects in Sudan alone are approximately 18 BCM/year, as measured at Aswan. This water is to be divided between Egypt and Sudan according to the 1959 agreement. In the light of the present international circumstances, however, it does not seem feasible that any of these projects can be initiated either now or in the near future.

Nile River reach of Aswan-Cairo, however, has several sources of pollution, including untreated or semi-treated industrial waste and sewage water, agricultural drainage water, flash floods loaded with sediment, and solid and liquid wastes of Nile cruise activities (Allam, 1999). It was also found that the level of bacteria is higher than what is permitted for both municipal and irrigation purposes. There is also bacterial pollution and a high level of ammonia in the Rosetta branch (National Water Research Center, 1996 (b)). The Damietta branch also suffers from high levels of both salinity and ammonia (Drainage Research Institute, 1996). The salinity of drainage water south of the Delta is low (less than 1,000 part per million (ppm)), and increases toward the north to 2,000-5,000 ppm. At present, the drains, particularly in the Delta region, are used as sewage canals for industrial and municipal wastes. They are exposed to chemical and biological pollution that minimizes the reuse potential of water for agriculture. Some drainage water reuse stations have been closed because of the polluted drainage water (Abdel Azeem, 1999).

Water Pollution With the steady increase of population and the continuous expansion of urbanized areas, pollution issues have increased too. The southern part of the Nile The groundwater aquifer at the newly reclaimed River in Egypt is Lake Nasser (the lake of the HAD) with areas in the north and west of the Delta region receives its clean water. The lake is void of pollution sources, leakage from the agricultural drains and irrigation except for few agricultural activities on the banks. The canals, as well as from industrial and human wastes. IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007

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The Nubian sandstone formation in the Western Desert some examples of legislative concerns: has high iron concentration in Abu Menqar (El Farafra oasis), and the lower part of the reservoir has brackish a. �� Laws are weak against transgression on irrigation water, which becomes very salty in its northern parts. and drainage networks, whether on its water, Control of the groundwater withdrawals, especially in embankments or perms. Concomitantly, the the Northern oases and Siwa oasis, is necessary in order penalties for transgressing these laws must be made to prevent the deterioration of groundwater quality harsher, thus emphasizing the government’s role in (Allam, 2001). both monitoring and executing punishment. Inadequacy of the Institutional Framework b. There is no announced policy for groundwater well There is a real need for developing the institutions permits for the different groundwater reservoirs. engaged in water resource management, in order to be able to face the great challenges of water shortage c. The areas of groundwater well fields are not declared and increasing water demands. Coordination among as protected areas against pollution and over the involved institutions as well as decentralization of pumping. the decision-making processes is becoming essential. These institutional concerns seem crucial to overcoming d. Law number 48 for 1982, regarding the required the inadequacy of the existing institutional framework. standards of pollution of the disposed wastewater to These claims can be summarized as follows: the watercourses, exists only on paper most of the time. a. Lack of sufficient coordination between MWRI and other ministries engaged in the water management. e. Suitable health and environmental specifications and guidelines for recycling the agricultural drainage b. Inadequate information dissemination and and treated wastewater in different activities are not communication among the different institutions and well defined. stakeholders increases the difficulties of the water distribution process, and constraints the efforts f. There are no adequate legislations for the participation for developing comprehensive water policies and of the private sector in water management and water plans. services. Legalization of the WUA’s and water boards is not yet established. c. Decision making process in MWRI goes through different levels in a centralized fashion. Lack of Public Awareness The notion that Egypt is a country of water d. In spite of the heavy burden carried out by the abundance became stronger after the high Nile river district engineer in MWRI, he/she is surviving a floods during the late 1990s. This event led to the permanent case of emergency. Many engineers do discharge of huge amounts of water into Toshqa not accept this job, as its rewards are not equivalent depression upstream the HAD, the Mediterranean to the time and effort needed. Sea and the northern lakes. The transgression on watercourses increased, illegal rice cultivation Deficiency of Legislation increased, and numerous unauthorized fish farms As a result of the expanding utilization of appeared. In the cities and urban areas, the appearances groundwater and the non-traditional water resources, of extravagance in water use are considerable. there is a need for new laws to protect the resources and to regulate water uses. It is also necessary to enhance Lack of Information the capacity of the existing laws to face the continuing Egypt lacks the necessary data in various threat on water and watercourses. The following are sectors, especially water. The only measured resource IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007


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Fragmentation of Agricultural Land Holdings Holdings Fragmentation is one of the main issues that threaten the agriculture in Egypt, particularly in the old land in the Nile Valley and Nile Delta. This is due to its direct impact on agricultural production efficiency, marketing, water use efficiency, and even on the income of farmers who became among the lowest income groups nationwide. The average holding size in the 1920s and 1930s was more than 2.4 ha. After the The operation of the irrigation network depends agricultural reform law, the average holding decreased on water levels and not on discharges, relying on to about 1.5 ha. The present average holding size at the hydraulic relationships between the level and the national level is about 0.8 ha. discharge. With the present deterioration of the irrigation network and the changed dimensions of the sections of In general, the average net return of one ha is most watercourses, these relationships no longer hold about L.E. 3,750-5,000/year. So, the annual net return and water flows in the canals are no longer known. Thus, of an average holding at the national level is about L.E. it is not possible to accurately know the agriculture 4000, i.e. less than L.E. 350/month (LE = US$ 0.15). water uses in the different regions. In addition, there are Without the animal and poultry wealth that provides no meters on most of the groundwater wells and, of the extra income, farmers would not be able to cover their few installed meters, most do not work. In the municipal living expenses. More fragmentation will increase the water supply networks, high percentage of the meters, difficulties of irrigation management and thousands of either on the network or at the outlets, do not work, and farmers may leave their cultivated land looking for a the rates are estimated at random. Consequently, there better income in urban centers. Farmer’s immigration is no accurate information available on municipal and will have serious social, economic and security industrial water uses or on the losses of the distribution consequences. network. ANALYSIS OF WATER MANAGEMENT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) PRACTICES Most of the studies concerned with the potential global and local effects of GATT showed that the In fact, most of the existing water policies are benefiting countries from the agreement are, in general, impressive and sensitive to the need to overcome a the most exporting ones, and that the countries whose number of water problems. Unfortunately, these water food imports are more than their exports will suffer policies include several questionable issues. These (Siam, 1994). For Egypt, the estimated economic issues are not only compromising the results of these losses resulting from this agreement are about 180- policies, but also their effectiveness. The following are 236 million dollars/year. Siam (1994) showed that in some observations on these policies: the event of the full deregulation of international trade, international prices will increase by about 16%, and a. Most of the agricultural expansion projects are at on the level of consumer goods, a high increase will the tail ends of the irrigation network, like the areas occur in the prices of dairy products followed by sugar located in Sinai and in Toshqa. The drainage water then wheat and rice. Abu Aly (1994) and Abu Mandour of those projects, therefore, cannot be returned to (1994) estimated that this increase in prices would lead the water system. It must be either locally recycled to an increase in the cultivated areas of cotton, rice and or damped out of the system. As a result, the water wheat, which will have a direct impact on increasing consumption of these projects will be about the agricultural water use. same as their total water requirements, which are about 24 BCM. is the Egypt Nile water quota downstream HAD. There is no accurate measurement for either rainfall or flash floods. As for water quality measurements in watercourses, or for groundwater aquifers, they are very few, even along the Nile River and main canals. The available measurements are both limited and for only a few elements. There are also usually done on distant intervals.


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Toshqa 1.0

Evapotranspiration Evaporation 36.0 2.5

Consumption 4.5

Rainfal Elsalam canal l.0 1.0

Municipalities

55.5 54.50

11.5

HAD

" First Scenario "

Outflow

Desalination 0.25 Toshqa 4.5

Rainfall 1.0

Evaporation 2.0 Evapotranspiratio Consumptio

Elsalam canal

4.25 55.5

Municipalities

51.0

7.0

HAD

"Second Scenario"

Outflow

Desalination Evapotranspiratio n Evaporation

Toshqa 4.5

2.0

0.5

Rainfall 1.5

Consumptio Elsalam canal and projects

10.0 Municipalities

57.5 53.0 HAD

5.0

"Third Scenario" Outflow

Figure 2. Future Water Scenarios IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007

Dr. M. N. Allam and G. I. Allam b. The dynamic interactions among the different water policy options were not taken into consideration at setting the water balance. Some of these interactions are as follows: - Diverting some of the Nile water to Toshqa will be deduced from the released water to the Nile Valley and the Delta causing negative impacts on groundwater recharge and on the quantity and quality of the agricultural drainage water. - The irrigation improvement projects, reduction of rice areas and modern irrigation schemes for orchard and fruit farms will reduce the recharge rate of the groundwater, and will reduce the drainage water and may increase its salinity. - Expanding the drainage water reuse practices, even if the pollution problems have been solved, requires using agricultural drainage water with relatively high salinity. Even after blending the drainage water with the canal water, irrigation applications have to be increased by the leaching requirements to prevent salt accumulation in the soil. So, water uses will increase by 10-25% or even more according to the salinity of the drainage water.

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Three scenarios for the future water status in year 2020 are presented. The first scenario assumes the continuity of the current water practices without major changes, the second scenario assumes a relative development of the water policies, and the third scenario is ambitious and reflects a radical development in water management practices in Egypt. Population growth rates were assumed according to the findings of the Third World Forum study on population and work power, by Othman et el (2001). Table 2 shows the main assumptions of the three scenarios. Tables 3 to 5 demonstrate the available water resources versus water uses for the proposed scenarios. Figure 2 illustrates the three different scenarios as resources and consumptions. Consumptions, rather than uses, were considered in the water balance calculations to avoid any debate about the possible losses and/or method of water use calculations. RESULTS OF THE WATER SCENARIOS

As shown in the tables, the first scenario will result in a water shortage by year 2020. If priority is given to municipal and industrial sectors, the water deficit will be in the agricultural sector. The available water will be enough only to reclaim 0.12 million ha in addition to another 80,000 ha on deep groundwater. Figure 2 shows the impact of this scenario on drainage water outflow to the sea and to the lakes. The efficiency - Expanding the use of groundwater in the Nile of the water system, therefore, will increase from 71% Valley and the Delta will lower the groundwater to about 75%. This relative increase of system efficiency table, and hence reduces the quantity of drainage is a result of expanding water reuse activities and the water available for reuse. relative improvement of the irrigation network. c. The treated sewage water is currently used in irrigating wooden trees, and is not, officially speaking, to be used in irrigating vegetables and crops. Thus, adding this water to the water balance of the country as a potential water source for the planned agricultural expansions is against the announced policies.

The water deficit is avoided in the second scenario, and water requirements for the two mega land reclamation projects, Toshqa and Sinai, will be fully provided. The total area of the agricultural expansions in this scenario is 0.48 million ha, and 0.12 million ha on the deep groundwater. Figure 2 shows that the drainage water outflows to the sea and lakes e. There is no participation of the private sector in the will be reduced from 13.25 BCM to 7 BCM. This water services. outflow will be less than the minimum amount required for maintaining the fisheries and the environmental Future OPPORTUNITIES AND Water equilibrium in the northern lakes, which was estimated Scenarios to be approximately 8 BCM/year (Imam and Ibrahim, IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007

214


1996). The evaporation losses from the water system will be reduced to 2 BCM/year, while the efficiency of the water system will increase to about 84%. �� In the third scenario, the available water resources are sufficient to satisfy the water requirements of the proposed agricultural expansion projects in 0.8 million ha, in addition to 0.2 million ha on the deep groundwater. The drainage water outflow to the sea and lakes will decrease to 5 BCM, threatening the ecology

of the northern lakes as shown in Figure 2. In this scenario, the total water losses of the water system will decrease to 7 BCM/year and the network efficiency will reach 88%. Furthermore, drainage water will be carrying about 2.5 BCM of untreated municipal and industrial wastewater. Salinity of the disposed drainage water will probably exceed 6,000 ppm, as compared to the current average salinity of this water, which is approximately

Assumption

Scenario 1

2

3

Total Population (Million)

94

93

91

Surface Irrigation Improvement (million ha)

0.50

0.80

0.80

Irrigation Network Rehabilitation

C u r r e n tMore Attention More Attention practice Municipal and Industrial Water UseN o s e r i o u sMore attention Privatization + Rationalization steps Tariffs Drinking Water Supply Network Rehabilitation None Main parts Privatization Drinking Water Supply Network Losses (%)

40 – 50

Wastewater Treatment Compared to PopulationMuch lower Growth Water User Association, Water Boards and WaterAs Current Councils

30

20

Illegal Practices of Drainage Reuse

Privatized and improved Established Empowered & Granted Legal Liabilities New breedsDecrease in R e a c h the with less waterareas of Rice optimal areas of requirements and Banana Rice and Banana No Actions Efforts increase L a w and regulation empowerments Continue Less Prohibited

Modern Irrigation for Orchard and Fruit Farms

No funds

Restriction of High Water Requirement Crops

Government Control over Pollution

Completion of Horizontal Expansion Projects0.20 (million ha) Public Awareness Current

Improved

No funds

Yes

0.60

1.00

Increasing

High

Table 2. Main Assumptions of the Proposed Scenarios IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007

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Water Uses (BCM/year) Sector Municipalities

Water Resources (BCM/year)

Amount & 15.00

Industry

Resource Nile River

Amount 55.50

Groundwater (Delta and Valley)

7.50

Deep Groundwater Drainage Water Reuse

2.25

River Transport Fisheries

0.25 0.00

Hydropower

0.00

- Canals in the Delta Region

6.50

Agriculture

6.50

- Nile river and Bahr Youssef - Illegal Uses

5.00 3.00

Waste Water Reuse Rainfall and Flash Floods Evaporation Losses Total

78.75

1.00 0.50 (2.50)

Total

78.75

Table 3. Water Uses and Available Resources for Scenario (1)


Amount & 12.75

Industry

Water Resources (BCM/year) Resource Nile River Groundwater (Delta and Valley)

Amount 55.50 7.50

River Transport Fisheries Hydropower

0.00 0.00 0.00

Deep Groundwater Drainage Water Reuse - Canals in the Delta Region

2.50

Agriculture

69.75

- Nile river and Bahr Youssef - Illegal Uses Waste Water Reuse Rainfall and Flash Floods Desalination Evaporation Losses

5.00 2.00 2.00 1.25 0.25 (2.00)

Total

82.50

Total

Table 4. Water Uses and Available Resources for Scenario (2) IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007

8.50

82.50

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2,750 ppm (Allam, 2001). The results of the three scenarios show that unless urgent steps are taken to control population growth, rehabilitate irrigation and water supply networks, and rationalize water uses, it will be difficult to provide water for agricultural expansions of more than 0.2 million ha., If �� those steps are taken, in addition to the treatment of about 2 BCM of sewage water, agricultural expansions of about 0.6 to 1.0 million ha, including Toshqa and El Salam canal projects, will be possible. The anticipated environmental deterioration that may take place in the northern lakes should be closely monitored and evaluated. It may be difficult to achieve the last scenario due to the huge financial investment required. The absence of positive indications regarding the completion of the Jonglie canal, as well as the absence of any kind of consensus among the Nile Basin countries regarding


Amount & 11.50

Industry

which countries can expect to benefit from the increased river water low, represent more compelling reasons for doubt. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS A comprehensive diagnosis of the Egyptian water system, policies, issues and considerations is reviewed and analyzed. Three future scenarios that introduce the future challenges, using the available opportunities, are discussed and investigated. Recommendations to help overcome the future challenges are as follows: a.Intensify the government’s efforts to reduce the population growth rate. b. Efforts are needed to push forward the decentralization process of water management up to district level. These efforts should be accompanied by serious capacity building programs.

Water Resources (BCM/year) Resource Nile River Groundwater (Delta and Valley)

River Transport Fisheries Hydropower

0.00 0.00 0.00

Deep Groundwater Drainage Water Reuse - Canals in the Delta Region

Agriculture

73.70

- Nile River and Bahr Youssef - Illegal Uses Waste Water Reuse Rainfall and Flash Floods Desalination Evaporation Losses

Total

85.20

Total

Table (5) Water Uses and Available Resources for Scenario (3) IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007

Amount 57.50 7.50

3.20 9.50 5.00 0.00 2.50 1.50 0.50 (2.00) 85.20

Dr. M. N. Allam and G. I. Allam c. Empowerment of the existing water use and water pollution laws seems crucial. Establishing an adequate legal framework for water users associations and water boards with more jurisdictions as for O&M, irrigation scheduling, and fining the violators is also essential. Improvement for the current water laws to allow private sector participation in water services is needed to ease the financial and management burden on the government.

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the proposed scenarios could suit the government’s ambitious development plan. However, the best scenario shows that the upper agriculture expansion limit is one million ha against the aimed 1.36 million ha by the GoE. References Abdel Azim, R. A. (1999) Agricultural Drainage Water Reuse in Egypt: Current Practices and a Vision for Future Development. (Ph.D. thesis, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Cairo).

d. The real hope is the Upper Nile projects, which will increase the Nile water quota. So, it is necessary to strengthen the cooperation ties through better cultural, Abu Aly, S. (1994) GATT Impacts on Egyptian social, economic and political relations with the Nile Agriculture, Egyptian Journal of AgroBasin countries. Also, it is required to encourage economics, Special Issue. governmental and private investments in the Nile basin countries. Abu Mandour, M. (1994) GATT: Opportunities and Challenges, Egyptian Journal of Agroe. The role of scientific research should take its place to economics, Special Issue. develop new affordable desalinization techniques. The same role is significant for introducing new agriculture Allam, M. N. (1995) Analysis of Surface Irrigation seeds and breeds that have high productivity, high Improvement in Egypt, Journal of Egyptian diseases resistance and low water consumption. Society of Engineers, 34. f. A comprehensive national program is needed to rationalize water uses in the domestic and industrial sectors. Installing and maintaining water conservation devices, revising the service tariff, using treated wastewater instead of drinking water in watering gardens and parks, recycling the industrial wastewater and utilizing seawater and brackish groundwater for washing and cooling purposes in the new industries are highly recommended.

Allam, M. N. (2001) Water and Agricultural Land in Egypt: Past, Present and Future (Cairo, The Academic Bookshop). Drainage Research Institute (1996) The Year Book of Drainage Water Quality (Cairo) Emam, E. and K. Ibrahim (1996) Minimum Nile Drainage Needs for Sustainable Estuarine Ecosystem (National Water Research Center, Cairo).

g. It is important to increase the governmental and private sector interventions needed to raise the public’s awareness of the water scarcity problems, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (1997) A the rationalizations of water use, and protection of Draft Strategy for Water Resources in Egypt watercourses from transgression and pollution. (Cairo). The results of the three scenarios show that Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (1998) unless urgent actions are taken to rehabilitate irrigation Egypt’s Irrigation Improvement Program: 1. and water supply networks, as well as rationalize water Performance Assessment, APRP-Water Policy uses, it will be difficult to provide water for agricultural Reform project, Report No.7. expansions of more than 0.2 million ha. None of IWRA, Water International,Volume 32, Number 2, June 2007

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National Water Research Center (1996b) Pollution Control and Water Quality Conservation along Rosetta Branch, Water Resources Strategic Research Activity, Report No. 11, Cairo. Othman, M., Elmahdy, A., Hussien, S., and E. Saleh (2001) Population and Work Force: Directions, Interactions, and Future Aspects, Final Report, Third World Forum, Egypt 2020 Project (Cairo). Siam, G. (1994) GATT and The Situation of the Egyptian Strategic Crops, Egyptian Journal of Agro-economics, Special Issue.


Water Resources In Egypt

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