ECONOMETRÍA “MODELO ECONOMETRICO PARA EL CONSUMO DE LECHE”
DOCENTE:
ING. AMILKAR MAZORRA LOPETEY
INTEGRANTES:
GABRIELA
LUIS
CESAR
GERONIMO
ALEXIS
YASMANI
Santa Cruz - Bolivia 2017
ÍNDICE 1. INTRODUCCIÓN................................................................................................1 2. DESCRIPCIÓN DE LA PROBLEMÁTICA...........................................................1 3. JUSTIFICACIÓN DEL PROBLEMA....................................................................2 4. IMPORTANCIA DEL PROBLEMA.......................................................................2 5. DESARROLLO....................................................................................................2 5.1
Identii!"!i#n $ de%!&i'!i#n de ("% )"&i"*(e%................................................2
5.2
J+%tii!"!i#n de ("% )"&i"*(e%........................................................................3
5.3
C,n%t&+!!i#n de( -,de(,..............................................................................4
5.3.1 PRORAMA E/IE0 /.5...............................................................................4 5.3.2 MTODO MULTILINEAL E/IE0 /.5.........................................................4 2.3.3 MTODO SIMPLE........................................................................................5 5.3.4 CORRELACIÓN E/IE0 /.5...................................................................... . CONCLUSIÓN.................................................................................................... .
BIBLIORAF6A.............................................................................................7
1. INTRODUCCIÓN En e( -,de(, %i8+iente de in)e%ti8"!i#n %e &e"(i9"&: +n "n:(i%i% de (" e-'&e%" ;L" P+&it" S.A< en e( -e&!"d, de S"nt" C&+9 de (" Sie&&". L" e-'&e%" ;L" P+&it" S.A< e% +n" e-'&e%" -+$ &e!,n,!id" en e( -e&!"d, "!t+"(-ente t"nt, !,-, " ni)e( n"!i,n"( $ (,!"(= (" e-'&e%" %e !"&"!te&i9" '&in!i'"(-ente ',& (" '&,d+!!i#n de (e!>e= di)ide %+ '&,d+!!i#n en d,% 8&"nde% (?ne"% @+e %,n (:!te,% $ n, (:!te,%= "!t+"(-ente ("n9"nd, %+% n+e),% '&,d+!t,% @+e %,n (,% +8,% &+t"(e% $ '+('" de &+t". En e%te -,de(, de in)e%ti8"!i#n $, "n:(i%i% %e e)"(+"&: e( ni)e( de -"$,& !,n%+-, de ("% (e!>e% %"*,&i9"d"%= (e!>e (i8>t= (e!>e !>,!,("t"d" $ (e!>e ")en"d". Se &e"(i9"&: +n" in)e%ti8"!i#n $ "n:(i%i% de ti', !+"ntit"ti), $ !+"(it"ti),= '"&" ee!+t"& +n e%t+di, de( !,-',&t"-ient, de (" de-"nd" dent&, de( -e&!"d, de S"nt" C&+9 de (" Sie&&".
2. ANTECEDENTES Ind+%t&i" de P&,d+!t,% L:!te,% ;L" P+&it" S.A.< !,n%tit+id" 31 de -"$, de 2 %e8n e%!&it+&" '*(i!" N&,. 1 de( 25 de "8,%t, de( 2= !,n,&-"d, ',& 2 '&,d+!t,&e% de (e!>e $ +nd"!i#n IES !,-, %,!i, e%t&"t8i!,= e( ,*et, '&in!i'"( e% (" ind+%t&i"(i9"!i#n $ e'(,t"!i#n de '&,d+!t,% (:!te,% $ %+% de&i)"d,%= In%tit+!i#n @+e n"!e *", e( %en, de (" A%,!i"!i#n de '&,d+!t,&e% de (e!>e ;ASOPLE< +n" in%tit+!i#n dedi!"d" "( "!,'i, de (e!>e (" 9,n" de G"'"!"ni. LA PURITA +n '&,$e!t, de in)e&%i#n !+$, ,*eti), '&in!i'"( e% '"8"& +n '&e!i, +%t, " (,% '&,d+!t,&e% de (e!>e " t&")% de (" ind+%t&i"(i9"!i#n de %+ -"te&i" '&i-" e!edente= M,ti), ',& (" !+"( (,% '&,d+!t,&e% de!iden &e"(i9"& +n" in)e&%i#n en +n" '("nt" de '"%te+&i9"d, de 2 Lt>. '"&" (" '&,d+!!i#n de '&,d+!t,% (:!te,% $ %+% de&i)"d,%= de e%t" -"ne&" (,% '&,d+!t,&e% !,n%,(id"n !,n -+!>, e%+e&9, $ "n>e(, +n" e-'&e%" @+e (e 'e&-ite ind+%t&i"(i9"& $ " (" )e9 1
!,-e&!i"(i9"& (" '&,d+!!i#n de (e!>e $ %+% de&i)"d,% !,-, %e& Le!>e F&e%!"= Le!>e S"*,&i9"d"%= Re&e%!,% L:!te,%= J+8, C,n!ent&"d,%= G,8+&t Be*i*(e= C&e-" de Le!>e= M"nte@+i(("% $ H+e%,%. A!t+"(-ente (" e-'&e%" !+ent" !,n +n" '("nt" de '&,d+!!i#n de '&,d+!t,% de ("&8" )id" UTK= in)e&%i#n @+e n,% >" 'e&-itid, !,n%,(id"&n,% en e( -e&!"d, !,-, +n" de ("% e-'&e%"% -:% i-',&t"nte " ni)e( n"!i,n"(= &e!,n,!id" ',& %+ !,-'&,-i%, !,n (" %,!ied"d (,8&"nd, +n -,de(, de e-'&e%" de 8&"n i-'"!t, %,!i"( $ %,%teni*(e= >,$ ',& >,$ ,&-"-,% '"&te de( e-'&e%"&i, B,(i)i"n,= 8&"!i"% "( t&"*", !,n+nt, de 217 '&,d+!t,&e% de (e!>e de( -+ni!i'i, de G"'"!"ni= de e%t" -"ne&" !,n%,(id"-,% (" !"de&" '&,d+!ti)" @+e !,-'&ende (" '&,d+!!i#n de (" -"te&i" '&i-"= ind+%t&i"(i9"!i#n $ !,-e&!i"(i9"!i#n de n+e%t&, '&,d+!t,%.
3. DESCRIPCIÓN DE LA PROBLEMÁTICA L" e-'&e%" ;L" P+&it" S.A< e% +n" de ("% e-'&e%"% -:% &e!,n,!id"% en e( -e&!"d, n"!i,n"(= @+e %e dedi!" " (" '&,d+!!i#n de )"&ied"d de '&,d+!t,%= 'e&, '&in!i'"(-ente (" (e!>e= A!t+"(-ente %e >" ',did, )e& @+e en e( de'"&t"-ent, de S"nt" C&+9 de (" Sie&&" (" ',*("!i#n >" !"-*i"d, !,n%t"nte-ente %+% >:*it,% de !,n%+-, e%t, de*id, " (,% i-'"!t,% de '+*(i!id"d de !"d" e-'&e%" &e%'e!t, " %+ '&,d+!t,. C,-, (, @+e >" id, >"!iend, ;L" P+&it" S.A<
De*id, " e%te !"-*i, %e '("nte# e( %i8+iente '&,*(e-".
2
Re"(i9"& +n" in)e%ti8"!i#n %,*&e (" !"ntid"d de !,n%+-, de (e!>e (i8>t = ")en"d" $ (e!>e de !>,!,("te en e( de'"&t"-ent, de S"nt" C&+9 de (" Sie&&" @+e 'e&-it" identii!"& e( ti', de (e!>e @+e tiende " tene& -"$,& de-"nd".
4. JUSTIFICACIÓN DEL PROBLEMA E( '&e%ente t&"*", >" %id, %e(e!!i,n"d, !,n (" in"(id"d de ',de& )i%+"(i9"& ("% '&,$e!!i,ne% de !,n%+-, de (,% t&e% ti',% de (e!>e -en!i,n"d,% "nte&i,&-ente $ "%? ',de& det"(("& !+:( de e%t"% tiende " tene& -"$,& de-"nd" de !,n%+-,. E%te e%t+di, tiene !,-, ,*eti), e%ti-"& (" de-"nd" de (:!te,% L" P+&it" en e( de'"&t"-ent, de S"nt" C&+9 de (" Sie&&" +ti(i9"nd, die&ente% ti',% de -,de(,% e!,n,-t&i!,%= !,-, (, @+e e% e( -t,d, %i-'(e $ e( -t,d, -+(ti(ine"(= e( !+"( n,% 'e&-iti&: e%ti-"& !,n -"$,& '&e!i%i#n (" de-"nd" de ("% die&ente% )"&i"*(e% -:% &e@+e&id"% ',& (,% !,n%+-id,&e%. P"&" e%te e%t+di, %e +ti(i9"&: e( '&,8&"-" e)ie /.5 e( !+"( n,% d"&: !,-, &e%+(t"d, +n %,(, -,de(, !,ni"*(e.
5. IMPORTANCIA DEL PROBLEMA L" i-',&t"n!i" de e%te -,de(, de in)e%ti8"!i#n e% %"*e& ',& @+ (" ',*("!i#n de S"nt" C&+9 de (" Sie&&" tiende " !,n%+-i& -:% e%t,% t&e% ti',% de (e!>e. Ade-:% de @+e %e ',d&: e',ne& +n -,de(, e!,n,-t&i!, e( !+"( e% de 8&"n "$+d" en '&,*(e-:ti!"% de e%te ti', '"&" identii!"& %i e% +n -,de(, "!e't"*(e , n,.
6. DESARROLLO 6.1 Iden!"!#$#!%n & de'#(!)#!%n de *$' +$(!$,*e' L" e-'&e%" ;L" P+&it" SA< '&,d+!e 8&"n )"&ied"d de '&,d+!t,% '"&" (" )ent"= ("% @+e %e t,-# en !+ent" '"&" &e"(i9"& +n "n:(i%i% $, e%t+di, %,n (" (e!>e %"*,&i9"d" %"*,& !>,!,("te= (i8>t $ (" (e!>e ")en"d". E( !+"( %e identii!# ("% %i8+iente% )"&i"*(e% G P&,d+!!i#n 1 (e!>e %"*,&i9"d" %"*,& !>,!,("te 2 (e!>e %"*,&i9"d" (i8>t
3
3 (e!>e ")en"d"
En (" %i8+iente t"*(" %e -+e%t&" " det"((e (" !"ntid"d de '&,d+!!i#n en (it&,% "'&,i-"d" $ ("% !"ntid"de% de !,n%+-, en (it&,% de ,&-" -en%+"(.
-ARIABLE INDEPENDIENTE / SER1 P&,d+!!i#n -ARIABLES INDEPENDIENTES 01 / SER2 Le!>e %"*,&i9"d" %"*,& !>,!,("te 02/ SER3 Le!>e %"*,&i9"d" (i8>t 03/ SER4 Le!>e ")en"d" 4
6.2 J'!"!#$#!%n de *$' +$(!$,*e' E%t"% )"&i"*(e% %,n de -+!>" i-',&t"n!i" de*id, " @+e en (" in)e%ti8"!i#n &e"(i9"d" "nte&i,&-ente %e '+d, ,*%e&)"& @+e e%t,% t&e% ti',% de (e!>e %,n ("% @+e tienen +n" -"$,& de-"nd" ',& e( !,n%+-id,& $" %e" ',& %+ )"(,& ene&8ti!, , n+t&i!i,n"( @+e e%t"% !,ntienen '"&" (" %"(+d >+-"n". E( '"'e( @+e +e8"n e%t"% )"&i"*(e% e% +nd"-ent"( '"&" )e& $ dete&-in"& %i e( -,de(, e!,n,-t&i!, '("nte"d, e% ide"( $ ',de& %"*e& %i (" '&,d+!!i#n "!t+"( e% #'ti-" $ %i (,8&" !+*&i& (" de-"nd" e%ti-"d" de !,n%+-, de e%t"% t&e% )"&i"*(e%.
6.3 Cn'(##!%n de* de* 5.3.1 PRORAMA E-IE -.5
5.3.2 MTODO MULTILINEAL 7 E-IE -.5
5
SOLUCIÓN ÓPTIMA B8 9 12.7=5 B1 9 .25 B2 9 .44 B3 9 .27 9 12.7=5 Q .25K 1 Q .44 2 Q .27 3 9 12.7=5 Q .25K 115.24 Q .4411.72 Q .271.51=33 9 234.15= R2 9 .75
E(
-,de(, '&e%ent" +n 7 de !"(id"d en (" e%ti-"!i#n e% de!i&
@+e e% !,ni"*(e.
2.3.3 MTODO SIMPLE
G !,n 1
D,nde B 21.771 B1 .2
9 21.771 Q .21 115.24
9 235.273 R2 9 .11
E%te
-,de(, tiene +n 12 de !"(id"d en (" e%ti-"!i#n e% de!i& @+e
n, e% n"d" !,ni"*(e.
G !,n 2
D,nde B 12.=4 B1 .51
9 12.=4 Q .5 11.72 9 235.2=12 R2 9 .545
E(
-,de(, '&e%ent" +n 55 de !"(id"d en (" e%ti-"!i#n e% de!i&
@+e n, e% !,ni"*(e.
G !,n 3
D,nde B 173.15= B1 .35
9 173.15= Q .3 1.51=3 9 234.537=27 R2 9 .
E(
-,de(, '&e%ent" +n de !"(id"d en (" e%ti-"!i#n e% de!i& @+e
e( -,de(, e% +n t"nt, "!e't"*(e.
5.3.4 CORRELACIÓN 7 E-IE -.5
D,nde
SER81 9 G SER82 9 1 SER83 9 2
SER84 9 3 #n 01
n, e%t:n !,&&e("!i,n"d"%.
#n 02
e%t:n ',!, !,&&e("!i,n"d"%.
#n 03
e%t:n e!e(ente-ente !,&&e("!i,n"d"%.
:. CONCLUSIÓN O*%e&)"nd, $ t,-"nd, en !+ent" e( '&,*(e-" '("nte"d, $ "'(i!"nd, e( -t,d, e!,n,-t&i!, '"&" &e%,()e& +n '&,*(e-" !,tidi"n, de +n" e-'&e%" '&,d+!t,&" de (e!>e ',de-,% ((e8"& " (" %i8+iente !,n!(+%i#n Se ((e8# " identii!"& @+ ti', de (e!>e e% (" -:% de-"nd"d" en (" e-'&e%" ;L" P+&it" S.A< $ !+:( de e(("% e% (" @+e tiende " tene& -"$,& de-"nd" de !,n%+-,. Se (,8&# ,&-+("& +n -,de(, e!,n,-t&i!, t,-"nd, en !+ent" de&-in"nte% )"&i"*(e% $ &e%t&i!!i,ne% @+e %+&8ie&,n "( -,-ent, de '("nte"& e( '&,*(e-". P"&" &e%,()e& e( -,de(, e!,n,-t&i!, %e +%# e( '&,8&"-" E)ie% /.5 en e( !+"( %e '+d, ee!+t"& e( -t,d, -+(ti(ine"( $ %i-'(e d:nd,n,% !,-, &e%+(t"d, e( -e,& -,de(, e( -t,d, -+(ti(ine"( $" @+e tiende " tene& +n 7 de !,ni"*i(id"d en (" !"(id"d de e%ti-"!i#n.
7
;. ANE0OS
N+e%t&,% e@+i',% '"&" e( t&"n%',&te
L,% '&,d+!t, UT %,n '&,d+!t,% @+e n, &e@+ie&en &e&i8e&"!i#n %e -"ntienen " +n" te-'e&"t+&" "-*iente de 25C " 3C !+id"nd, (" !"'" de( en)"%e= %+ !,n%e&)"!i#n e% " en %+ en)"%e %e&&"d, en !,ndi!i,ne% "nte&i,&-ente -en!i,n"d,. Un" )e9 "*ie&t, e( en)"%e !,n%e&)"& &e&i8e&"d, de 4 " C dent&, de %+ en)"%e ,&i8in"( Sin e-*"&8, (,% '&,d+!t,% '"%te+&i9"d,% &e@+ie&en &e&i8e&"!i#n de 4V C " +n M" de VC -"nteniend, %ie-'&e (" !"den" de &i# '"&" %+ !,n%e&)"!i#n. -"% in,&-"!i#n en (i%t"d, de '&,d+!t,%.
1
N+e%t&" '("nt" +*i!"d" en $"'"!"ni
N+e%t&,% '&,d+!t,% ,e&t"d,% "( -e&!"d, t"nt, (:!te,% $ n, (:!te,%
11
12
<. BIBLIORAFÍA P&,8&"-" E)ie% /. >tt'.("'+&it".!,-.*,'&,d+!t,%.>t-( >tt'%.8,,8(e.!,-%e"&!>W!(ienti&e, *X@(i*&,QdeQe!,n,-et&i"Q'dX%"X)ed">UYEi@&'InA>/CJiGY"ZO BNH1HII0C8AX*i124X*i>3 >tt'%e%.%(ide%>"&e.net-"&i"e&n"nd"-i(("n12e!,n,-et&i"d"-,d"&n8+"&"ti 437331
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