NMC Forecasting Only

Constant Demand 3000

2500

2000

d n a m e D

Actual Constant

1500

1000

500 500

0 0

10

20

30 Week

40

50

60

Last Period Demand 3000

2500

2000

d n a m e D

Actual

1500

LastPeriod

1000

500

0 0

10

20

30 Week

40

50

60

Moving Average Method 3000

2500

2000

d n a 1500 m e D

Actual MvgAvg

1000

500

0 0

10

20

30 Week

40

50

60

Exponential Smoothing 3000

2500

2000

d n a 1500 m e D

Actual ExpSmt

1000

500

0 0

10

20

30 Week

40

50

60

0.5

Period

Actual 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

1401 898 404 967 1081 1601 1332 1047 692 1121 1321 1729 1328 954 648 1101 1381 1621 1556 1162 941 1360 1809 1905 1696 1510 972 1192 1681 1696

Constant 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875 1483.875

LastPeriod 1401 1401 898 404 967 1081 1601 1332 1047 692 1121 1321 1729 1328 954 648 1101 1381 1621 1556 1162 941 1360 1809 1905 1696 1510 972 1192 1681

MvgAvg

901 756.3333 817.3333 1216.333 1338 1326.667 1023.667 953.3333 1044.667 1390.333 1459.333 1337 976.6667 901 1043.333 1367.667 1519.333 1446.333 1219.667 1154.333 1370 1691.333 1803.333 1703.667 1392.667 1224.667 1281.667

ExpSmth 1401 1401 1149.5 776.75 871.875 976.4375 1288.719 1310.359 1178.68 935.3398 1 028.17 1174.585 1451.792 1389.896 1171.948 909.9741 1005.487 1193.244 1407.122 1481.561 1321.78 1131.39 1245.695 1527.348 1716.174 1706.087 1608.043 1290.022 1241.011 1461.005

Ft=F

t-1 + α (A t-1 –

F

t-1)

Analysis of NMC Game

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Actual MvgAvg CntrdMvgA 1401 898 404 1058.667 967 1047.167 1052.917 1081 1072 1059.583 1601 1120 1096 1332 1145.667 1132.833 1047 1185.667 1165.667 692 1207 1196.333 1121 1206.333 1206.667 1321 1190.833 1198.583 1729 1183.5 1187.167 1328 1180.167 1181.833 954 1190.167 1185.167 648 1172.167 1181.167 1101 1210.167 1191.167 1381 1244.833 1227.5 1621 1293.667 1269.25 1556 1336.833 1315.25 1162 1408.167 1372.5 941 1455.5 1431.833 1360 1478.833 1467.167 1809 1536.833 1507.833 1905 1542 1539.417 1696 1514 1528 1510 1492.667 1503.333 972 1457.833 1475.25 1192 1471.833 1464.833 1681 1483.167 1477.5 1696 1509.167 1496.167 1780 1607.167 1558.167

s

0.918401 1.020212 1.460766 1.175813 0.898198 0.578434 0.929006 1.102134 1.456409 1.123678 0.80495 0.54861 0.924304 1.125051 1.277132 1.183045 0.84663 0.657199 0.926957 1.199735 1.237482 1.109948 1.004435 0.658871 0.813744 1.137733 1.133564 1.142368

d'ssnlsd

1052.917 1059.583 1096 1132.833 1165.667 1196.333 1206.667 1198.583 1187.167 1181.833 1185.167 1181.167 1191.167 1227.5 1269.25 1315.25 1372.5 1431.833 1467.167 1507.833 1539.417 1528 1503.333 1475.25 1464.833 1477.5 1496.167 1558.167

trend

1034.96 1056.02 1077.08 1098.14 1119.2 1140.26 1161.32 1182.38 1203.44 1224.5 1245.56 1266.62 1287.68 1308.74 1329.8 1350.86 1371.92 1392.98 1414.04 1435.1 1456.16 1477.22 1498.28 1519.34 1540.4 1561.46 1582.52 1603.58

cr

1.01735 1.003374 1.017566 1.031593 1.041518 1.049176 1.039048 1.013704 0.986478 0.965156 0.951513 0.932534 0.925049 0.937925 0.954467 0.973639 1.000423 1.027892 1.037571 1.050682 1.057175 1.034375 1.003373 0.970981 0.950943 0.94623 0.945433 0.97168


54 55 56 57 58 59 60

2087.96 2109.02 2130.08 2151.14 2172.2 2193.26 2214.32

1.277132 1.183045 0.84663 0.657199 0.926957 1.199735 1.237482

1.080536 1.065123 1.036356 1.005235 0.976735 0.954296 0.946341

2881.358 2657.551 1868.954 1421.129 1966.691 2511.067 2593.146


c

1.012763 1.017511 1.030226 1.040762 1.043247 1.033976 1.013076 0.988446 0.967716 0.949734 0.936365 0.931836 0.939147 0.955344 0.976176 1.000651 1.021962 1.038715 1.048476 1.047411 1.031641 1.00291 0.975099 0.956051 0.947535 0.954448 0.972804

Constant Std Err o R Squared No. of Ob Degrees o X Coeffic Std Err o



Regression Output: 950.7169 66.8722 0.938658 42 40

Y Est ervations Freedom ent(s) Coef.

21.06152 0.851306


!rend Line 3000

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s e u l a # d n e r !

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!rend Line 3000

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d n a m e D

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Seasonalit& 1$6

1$4

1$2

1 S t n e n o p m o C

0

%$0$6

0$4

0$2

0 0

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20

30 !ime

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12

10

%

6

4

2

0

3000

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2000

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0 'an

(e)

mar

apr

ma&

'un

'ul

aug

spt

oct

nov

dec

C&clical Component 1$1

1$05

1 C t n e n o p m o c

0$*5

0$*

0$%5 0

5

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25 !ime

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 + % * 101112131415161+1%1*202122232425262+2%2*303132333435363+3%3*404142434445464+4% Actual data

!rend

NMC Forecasting Only

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