E [ R R ( n ) ] =226.8 ∙ 30 ∙ P F ∙ ( 0.9 P o ( n ) d o+ 0.65 P w ( n ) d w ) ^
^
^
where E [ R R ( n ) ] is the expecte expected d monthly monthly revenu revenuee ¿ a syst systemwit emwith h n truc trucks. ks.
where PF ( n )=( 0.8 p75 + p100+ 1.2 p130 ) where d o=2 ∙ ( 0.4 d crush + 0.6 d leach ) ^
where Po ( n )∧ Pw ( n ) are are the expect expected ed num number ber of loads loads of produ producti ction on per per day for n truck truck . ^
^
Expected profit per mont+ is t+e main indicator used to e(aluate t+e different experiments ran. '+is e(aluation is ultimatel# used to build t+e set of recommendations made.
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1.)
Problem Sco!e
As -it+ an# s#stem, t+e mining operations at t+e Spotted Dog Mine +a(e an in+erent (ariabilit#. Specificall# to t+is s#stem, (ariabilit# includes extracted material classification, o(erall production, production, truc tra(el speeds and loading/unloading times. times. If (ariabilit# is not accounted for in a model, decision maers +a(e a limited abilit# to understand and account for t+e s#stems true be+a(iour. be+a(iour. '+is limits t+eir abilit# to mae a -ell informed decision. Arena is designed to account for t+e stoc+astic nature of t+ese processes, so it -as used to build a model to anal#6e t+e problem described in Section 1.!. Se(eral aspects of mining operations at t+e Spotted Dog Mine -ere deemed to be out of scope for t+is proJect. '+e maret demand demand for gold is not included included in t+e model, nor is staffing re5uirements. re5uirements. In addition, t+e re5uired operations to process material before exca(ation and after unloading are out of scope. As suc+, onl# t+e material +andling aspect of t+e mine is modelled. Section .! describes all t+e assumptions made t+roug+out t+e construction of t+e model in furt+er detail.
.0) .0)
%et, %et,o" o"ol olog ogy y an" an" ss ssum um!t !tio ions ns
'+roug+out t+e construction of t+e Arena model, numerous assumptions -ere made. '+ese assumptions can be classified into t-o categories B input data and model specifications. Input data refers to t+e distributions pro(ided to Arena Arena in order to control (arious acti(ities, -+ile model specifications refer to assumptions t+at influenced t+e mae>up of t+e model.
.1)
'n!ut #a #ata
Data regarding loaded truc speeds, empt# truc speeds, s+o(el failure rates, s+o(el repair times, s+o(el loading times and truc dumping times -ere pro(ided to describe operating conditions at t+e Spotted Dog Mine. As distributions distributions representing data sets is more representati(e t+an exact past data, t+e Arena Input
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'+e truc specifications also indicated t+at -+en loaded trucs are tra(elling up+ill, t+eir speed s+ould also be reduced. sing t+e pro(ided gradeabilit# grap+, a factor for speed reduction -as calculated to be . As suc+, t+e speed of loaded trucs tra(elling up+ill is +alf t+at of loaded trucs tra(elling on flat ground.
.) .)
%o"e %o"ell S!e S!eccifi ificat cations ions
A simulation simulation model -as needed to model t+e complex and d#namic be+a(ior of t+e stoc+astic processes at t+e Spotted Dog Gold Mine. '+e processes and t+eir interactions -ere mapped, and an Arena model -as created to approximate t+em. '+e replication lengt+s and resource sc+edules are based on t-o nine +our s+ifts per da#, and a mont+l# pa#ment sc+edule. In order to compare t+e benefits of purc+asing additional trucs, a @"A controller controller uses a MS Excel spreads+eet to dri(e a set of experiments and reco(er continuous responses from t+e s#stem based on t+e controls defined b# t+e experiment. '+ese experiments are described in Section 3.!. Se(eral met+odologies and assumptions -ere used in order to create a simplified, #et representati(e model. '+ese are summari6ed belo-$
S,ovel Process %o"el
*it+ sufficientl# sufficientl# +ig+ number of trucs, t+e s+o(els -ill be t+e constraint to production at t+e mine. '+e s+o(elling process sei6es t-o resources, a truc and a s+o(el2, dela#s for a random loading time, releases t+e s+o(el, and t+e truc proceeds to deli(er t+e loaded material to its destination. destination. '+e s+o(el model maes use of t+e follo-ing assumptions about t+e s#stem$ • • •
An infinite suppl# of crus+ed roc is a(ailable for t+e s+o(els to exca(ate S+o(el loading times account for all c+anges in position t+at a s+o(el maes -it+in a p+ase External demand for gold and t+e proportion of -aste to ore is assumed to be constant. '+is results in a permanent allocation of one s+o(el mining gold ore, and t-o s+o(els mining -aste
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• • • • •
S+o(els stop operations at = +ours -+ile t+e rest of t+e s#stem continues to -or until it is empt# 'rucs +aul material at t+e full capacit# of 9! tonnes '+ere are no capacit# constraints associated -it+ roads, ramps, or intersections in t+e model 'rucs do not experience failures 0oute times are calculated b# di(iding effecti(e distance b# a stoc+astic (elocit# effecti(e distances are defined in Appendix "
#estination Process %o"el
%rocessing at t+e destination uses t+e follo-ing set of assumptions to simplif# t+is aspect of t+e model$ • • • •
• •
.0) .0)
One distribution is fit to a set of data and used to model dumping at all destinations '+ere are no capacit# restrictions on leac+ -aste dumps Ore production targets consist of t+e amount of bot+ leac+ and ore material +auled eac+ mont+ '+e pa# factor is calculated according to t+e total amount of ore material and -aste material +auled b# trucs eac+ mont+ '+e effecti(e grade of eac+ ramp is estimated to ne(er be greater t+an 19 '+e mont+l# aggregate truc cost is N9!,!!! see Appendix C
Ex!e Ex!eri rim men enta tall #esi #esign gn
'+e run controller for t+e model can feed a set of control parameters into t+e model at t+e start of eac+ replication, and output data out of t+e model at t+e end of t+e replication. '+e different scenarios to be considered are represented as sets of (alues for t+e control parameters, -+ic+ can be defined in a spreads+eet t+at is lined to t+e model t+roug+ t+e run controller. Due to t+e small computational si6e of t+e model, and t+e need to onl# optimi6e one control (ariable, a brute force approac+ is used used to run t+e model under under a range of different truc 5uantities. '+e '+e experiments in 'able 'able 1 -ere run to produce results for anal#sis.
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Table 1 - Ex!eriment Summary Table
Experiment
0ange of 'rucs
Experiment
?umber of
parameters
replications da#s2/
&ilename
truc 5uantit#
%+ase 1 'ruc
1,9,1!,19,!,3,9,;,=,3!
%+ase 1 0oute
Optimi6ation %+ase 'ruc
31,3,33,37,39,3:,3;,3<,3=,7!P
'imes %+ase 0oute
Optimi6ation %+ase 3 'ruc
31,3,33,37,39,3:,3;,3<,3=,7!P
Optimi6ation %+ase 7 'ruc
31,3,33,37,39,3:,3;,3<,3=,7!P
Optimi6ation
31,3,33,37,39,3:,3;,3<,3=,7!P
.0)
1,9,1!,19,!,3,9,;,=,3!
1,9,1!,19,!,3,9,;,=,3!
1,9,1!,19,!,3,9,;,=,3!
'imes %+ase 3 0oute 'imes %+ase 3 0oute 'imes
1
ScenariosQScenarios%1> !!7.xlsx
1
ScenariosQScenarios%> !!7.xlsx
1
ScenariosQScenarios%3> !!7.xlsx
1
ScenariosQScenarios%7> !!<.xlsx
2esults
'+e Spotted Dog Mine simulation -as run using t+e current and future a(erage +aul profiles in order to determine t+e optimal number of trucs in eac+ p+ase. '+ese results are presented in t+e follo-ing subsections, eac+ -it+ an Expected Mont+l# %rofit table, grap+ and an Asset tili6ation grap+. '+e figures of Expected Mont+l# %rofit and Asset tili6ation s+o- t+e relations+ip bet-een t+e number of
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.1)
P,ase 1
'+e follo-ing grap+s and table s+o- t+e results of t+e simulation for %+ase 1 of t+e mine.
Ex!ec Ex!ecte" te" %ont,ly %ont,ly Profit Profit 3P 3 P ,ase 1) 1) N:!,!!!,!!! N7<,<7,7=;.=<
N9!,!!!,!!! N7!,!!!,!!! %ont,ly ont,l y 5alue 5aluess
%rofit 0e(enue
N3!,!!!,!!!
Costs
N!,!!!,!!! N1!,!!!,!!! N! !
9
1!
19
!
9
4umber 4umber of Trucs Truc s Figure - Ex!ecte" %ont,ly Profit 3P,ase 1) Table - Ex!ecte" Profit 3P,ase 1)6 Selection
3!
39
7!
79
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sset *tili+ *tili+ation ation 3P,ase 3P ,ase 1) 1) 1.! 1.!! !.
S+o(el tili6ation
!.:!
'ruc tili6ation tili6ation
!.7! !.! !.!! !
9
1!
19
!
9
3!
39
7!
79
4umb 4umber of Trucs Truc s
Figure - sset *tili+ation 3P,ase 1)
.)
P,ase
Ex!ec Ex!ecte" te" %ont,ly %ont,ly Profit Profit 3P ,ase ) ) N;!,!!!,!!! N:!,!!!,!!!
N9,;!!,:79.<7
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Table - Ex!ecte" Profit 3P,ase )6 Selection
7 Tr Trucs
9 ; = 3! 31 3
E8Profit9
N79,9:3,<<3.7= N7;,<::,:3!.=7 N9,::7,3!9.= N9,;!!,:79.<7 N9,3:3,!<7.!< N9,31,<=.73
sset *tili+ *tili+ation ation 3P,ase 3P ,ase ) ) 1.! 1.!!
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Ex!ec Ex!ecte" te" %ont,ly %ont,ly Profit Profit 3P 3 P ,ase ) ) N;!,!!!,!!! N:!,!!!,!!! N9!,!!!,!!!
N9:,737,9!1.;9 %rofit
N7!,!!!,!!! %ont,ly ont,l y 5alue 5aluess
0e(enue
N3!,!!!,!!!
Costs
N!,!!!,!!! N1!,!!!,!!! N! !
9
1!
19
!
9
4umber 4umber of Trucs Truc s
Table - Ex!ecte" Profit 3P,ase )
7 Tr Trucs
= 3! 31
E8Profit9
N9,; 9,;: :,3 ,3; ;3.<: .<: N99,9 99,9!: !:,: ,:9 99.<9 .<9 N9:,7 9:,737 37,9 ,9! !1.;9 .;9
3!
39
7!
79
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.)
P,ase
'+e follo-ing grap+s and table s+o- t+e results of t+e simulation for %+ase 3 of t+e mine.
Ex!ecte" %ont,ly Profit 3P,ase ) N
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sset *tili+ *tili+ation ation 3P,ase 3P ,ase ) ) 1. 1. 1 !.< !.< *tili+ation
S+o(el tili6ation
!.: !.:
'ruc tili6ation tili6ation !.7 !.7 !. !. ! !
9
1!
19
!
9
3!
39
7!
79
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'o determine determine t+e appropriate number of replications, a trial run of 3! mont+s -as conducted for 3! trucs during %+ase 7. '+e pa# for eac+ mont+ -as calculated, and t+e =9 confidence inter(al -as calculated. It -as decided t+at t+is confidence inter(al s+ould be no larger t+an 1 t+en t+e a(erage (alue of mont+l# pa#. '+is (alue -as c+osen c+osen because t+e optimal number number of trucs can be c+anged -it+ -it+ slig+t (ariations (ariations in t+e model. '+e results from t+is trial run are displa#ed in 'able 'able :. Table ; - Trial 2un 2esults
5ariable
5alue
Alp+a A(erage Standard De(iation =9 Confidence Inter(al
1.=: N 3,:99,!1:.; N <<,9=9.<= N 1!3,;.;1
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%o"el Com!arison( Ex!ecte" #aily Loa"s #elivere" 3P,ase ) 1!! Simulated A mount 1!!!
'ruc Cons traint Approximation
ueueing '+eor# Approximation
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;.1) ;.1)
S,ovel S,ovel constr constrain aintt !ro"uc !ro"uctiv tivity ity a!!ro a!!roxim ximati ation( on(
*+en t+e number of trucs is increased be#ond be #ond t+e optimum le(el, t+e s+o(eling process becomes a bottlenec in t+e material material +andling process. process. In t+is situation, situation, a large 5ueue of empt# trucs trucs forms at t+e s+o(el stations and t+e producti(it# of t+e mine as a function of number of trucs2 approac+es a constant (alue. '+is (alue can be gi(en b# t+e follo-ing e5uation$
Ps ( n ) ≅
1080 ∙ 3
t load
'+e loading times are represented b# a s+ifted lognormal distribution. distribution. '+e a(erage loading time is$ 1.52,0 .716 ) ] =2 + 1.52=3.52 t load = E [ 2 + LOG ( ( 1.52,0
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;.) ;.)
Truc Tr uc constr constrain aintt !ro !ro"uc "uctiv tivity ity a!!ro a!!roxim ximati ation on
*+en t+e number of trucs is reduced belo- t+e optimum le(el, t+e trucing process becomes a bottlenec in t+e material material +andling process. process. In t+is situation, situation, t+e s+o(els must -ait -ait for trucs to arri(e,
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In t+is model, t+e arri(al rate is defined as t+e rate t+at empt# trucs are added to t+e 5ueue. '+e ser(ice rate is defined as t+e rate t+at t+e s+o(els can fill trucs and cause t+em to exit t+is simplified s#stem. '+is model is analogous to an %%s 5ueuing s#stem -it+ finite calling !o!ulation.
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reliabilit# of t+is result. '+ese results taen from t+e current perspecti(e -ill result in a plan to purc+ase one truc for p+ase 3, and t+en t-o more additional trucs for t+e final p+ase of mine operations.
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Bibliogra!,y Catepillar Inc. !1!2. ;=3& Mining 'ruc Operating Specifications. Specifications. AEHQ6038-03 (03-2010) (03-2010) . 4illier, &. &. S., )ieberman, G. . !1!2. Introduction Introduction to Operations Operations Research, Research, th Edition!
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!!en"ix - 2e!resentative #ata #istributions Table = - 2e!resentative #ata #istributions
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