INDICE
ESTRUCTURA ECONOMICA DEL PERU 1. LA ECONOMIA DEL PERU 2. CRECIMIENTO DEL PBI EN LOS ULTIMOS ULTIMOS AÑOS 3. SECTORES PRODUCTIVOS DE LA ECONOMIA DEL PERU 3.1. SECTOR PRIMARIO 3.1.1 LA AGRICULTURA 3.1.2 LA GANADERÍA 3.1.3 LA MINERÍA: 3.1.4 LA PESCA: 3.2. SECTOR SECUNDARIO: 3.3. SECTOR TERCIARIO 3.3.1 TRANSPORTE TRANSPORTE 3.3.2 COMUNICACIÓN: 3.3.3 TURISMO: 3.3.4 SALUD: ESTRUCTURA ECONOMICA MUNDIAL POTENCIAS ECONÓMICAS MUNDIALES RIESGOS DE LA ECONOMIA MUNDIAL 2015 PERSPECTIVAS MUNDIALES A MEDIANO PLAZO CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO MUNDIAL CONTRACORRIENTE EN LA ECONOMÍA MUNDIAL RIESGOS PARA LA RECUPERACIÓN PRIORIDADES EN MATERIA DE POLÍTICAS DESAFIOS UE ENFRENTARA LA ECONOMIA MUNDIAL EL 2015
ESTRUCTURA ECONOMICA DEL PERU 1. LA ECO ECONOM NOMIA IA DEL DEL PER PERU U L! "#$%$&'! (") P"*+ ,*!(-#-$%!)&"%," ! /-($ % *""$ (" / !*-!(! !*-!(! #$&)-#!(! #$&)-#!(! 6"$6*!7'!. 8!/,! )$/ !9$/ %$"%,! / "#$%$&'! "/,!! !/!(! "% )! ";)$,!#-<% =*$#"/!&-"%,$ ";$*,!#-<% (" *"#*/$/ %!,*!)"/= *-%#-!)&"%," &-%"*$/= !6*'#$ !6*'#$)!/ )!/ "/>" "/>"*$/ *$/== %$ $/,!%," $/,!%,"== "/," "/," !%$*! !%$*!&! &! ! !*-!($ "% )$/ +),-&$/ !9$/= #$% %! $7"*,! ";$*,!)" (" *$(#,$/ /"*-#-$/ !/,!%," %&"*$/!= #$%-*,-?%($/" "% )! >-%,! "#$%$&'! )!,-%$!&"*-#!%!. L! &!$*' &!$*'! ! (" )$/ "*!% "*!%$/ $/ -" -" (" )$/ /"*-#/"*-#-$/= $/= (" )! ";)$,!#";)$,!#-<% <% ";$*,!#-<% ";$*,!#-<% (" )$/ *"#*/$/ *"#*/$/ %!,*!)"/ %!,*!)"/ $ (" )! !6*-#),*!. L!/ $)',-#!/ (" -%(/,*-!)-@!#-<% *"!)-@!($/ "% )$/ 50 0 /$*" ,$($ )$/ 0= !/!($/ "% )! //,-,#-<% (" -&$*,!#-$%" -&$*,!#-$%"/= /= ,-"*$% ,-"*$% % "7"#,$ "7"#,$ $#$ %$,!)"= "% 6*!% &"(-(! ("-($ ! )! 7"*," #*-/-/ "#$%<&-#! (" %!)"/ (" )$/ 0 )! !)-#! !)-#!#-< #-<% % (" %! (*/,(*/,-#! #! $)',$)',-#! #! (" !"*, !"*,*! *! %"$)-"*!) "% )$/ 0. L! !"*,*! "#$%<&-#! "#$%<&-#! /" -%-#-< (*!%," ") 6$-"*%$ 6$-"*%$ (" A)"*,$ A)"*,$ F-&$* F-&$*-- "% 10 10 !*! !*! !#"* !#"* 7*"%," 7*"%," ! %! #*-/-/ #*-/-/ "#$%<& "#$%<&-#! -#! & /"*-! >" !'! !'! &-%!($ &-%!($ )! -%(/, -%(/,*-! *-! *$$#!($ %! -"*-%!#-<% !6(!.
2. CRECIMIENTO DEL PBI EN LOS ULTIMOS AÑOS E% )$/ +),-&$/ !9$/ ") PBI "*!%$ ! #*"#-($ (" &!%"*! %$,!)" %$,!)"== !#-"% !#-"%($ ($ #*"# #*"#"* "* ") -%6*"/$ -%6*"/$ "* #-,! )!/ -%"*/-$%"/ ";,*!%"*!/. E) #*"#-&-"%,$ #*"#-&-"%,$ (" )! "#$%$&'! "*!%! "/, "% $#! ("
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
3. SECTORES PRODUCTIVOS DE LA ECONOMIA DEL PERU L$/ /"#,$*"/ *$(#,-$/ *$(#,-$/ $ "#$%<&-#$/ "#$%<&-#$/ /$% )!/ (-/,-%,!/ *!&!/ $ (--/-$%"/ (" )! !#,--(!( "#$%<&-#!= !,"%(-"%($ !) ,-$ (" *$#"/$ >" /" ("/!**$))!. S" (-/,-%6"% ,*"/ 6*!%("/ /"#,$*"/ ("%$&-%!($/ *-&!*-$= /"#%(!*-$ ,"*#-!*-$ (" )$/ #!)"/ !)!*"&$/ ! #$%,-%!#-<%:
3.1. SECTOR PRIMARIO U%! (" // #!*!#,"*'/,-#!/ "/ )! ";,*!##-<% (" *"#*/$/ "% )! &!$*'! (" )$/ #!/$/H !/' #$&$ )! *"!*!#-<% (") ,*!!!($* >" >" "/ *# *#,,-#! #!&" &"%, %," " "&'* "&'*-# -#! ! "/ "/ %$ %"#" %"#"/-, /-,! ! "/"#-!)-@!#-<%= $* )$ ,!%,$ ") /!)!*-$ >" "*#-" "/ !$. C$&*" C$&*"%(" %(" )!/ !#,-!#,--(!(" (!("// (" ";,*! ";,*!####-<% <% (-*"#, (-*"#,! ! /-% ,*!%/7$*&!#-$%"/ (" -"%"/ (" )! %!,*!)"@!. N$*&!)&"%,"= /" "%,"%,-"% "%(" (" >" 7$*& 7$*&! ! !*," !*," (") (") /" /"#, #,$* $* *-& *-&!* !*-$ -$ )! !6*-#),*! !6*-#),*!== )! 6!%!("*'!= 6!%!("*'!= )! &-%"*'! &-%"*'! )! "/#!. E) /"#,$* /"#,$* *-&!*-$ /")" /"* %! !*," -&$*,!%," (" )$/ !'/"/ "% ("/!**$))$= #$&$ ") %"/,*$= "/," /"#,$* "/ ") >" !#" ") &$-&-"%,$ (" )$/ ("&/ /"#,$*"/ ! >" /-% &!,"*-! *-&! %$ /" ("/!**$))! %-%6+% *$(#,$ !*! )! -%(/,*-!= $* "))$ "/," "/," "/ ") *-%#*-%#-!) !) /"#,$* /"#,$*== "/," "/," *$&" *$&"" " ! ") /"#,$* /"#,$* /"#%(!*-$.
3.1.1 LA AGRICULTURA L! A6*-#),*! "/ )! !#,--(!( &/ -&$*,!%," (" %"/,*$/ $)!($*"/ $)!($*"/ **!)"/. **!)"/. S"6+% "/,!('/,-# "/,!('/,-#!/ !/ (") &-%-/,"*-$ &-%-/,"*-$ (" A6*-#),*!= $#! !) 21 (" )! P$)!#-<% E#$%<&-#!&"%," A#,-! A#,-! 2. &-))$%"/ &-))$%"/ (" !-,!%,"/H= !-,!%,"/H= !$*,! ") !) PBI %!#-$%!) %!#-$%!) US 5. &-) &-))$%"/= &-))$%"/= ! *"#-$/ *"#-$/ (") !9$ 14H= *$( *$(# #" " ") 11 (") (") !)$ !)$** ,$,! ,$,!)) (" )!/ )!/ ";$ ";$*, *,!#!#-$%" $%"// %!#%!#-$%! $%!)" )"// US US 1=50 1=50 &-)) &-))$%" $%"/= /= 2005H 2005H== /-6%- /-6%-#! #! "% -%7*!" -%7*!"/,* /,*#, #,*! *! (" *-"6$= *-"6$= ") 1 (" )! -%"*/ -%"*/-<% -<% ! %-") %-") %!#-$%!) 13 &-))$%"/ (" (<)!*"/H= *"*"/"%,! ") 0 (" )! *$ *$-/ -/-< -<% % (" !)-& !)-&"% "%,$ ,$// !*! !*! )! $)! $)!##-<% <% "* "*!% !%!. !. D""%("%#D""%("%#-! ! !)-&"%,!*!)-&"%,!*-! ! "% -&$*,!#-$%" -&$*,!#-$%"/: /: !**$@ !**$@ 3H= !#%$ !#%$ 2H= !" 1H= )"#" 7*"/#! 7*"/#! 12H= 12H= !@+#!* #!9! 14H= ,*-6$ H= !#"-,"/ 5H= "%,*" $,*$/. A%>" A%>" %$ /-"&* /-"&*" " )! !6*-# !6*-#), ),*! *! 7" ,!% "%!= "%!= "% #$&!*!#-<% #$% )! !#,!) "/ "% ") !9$ 2004 #$%#"%,*!!
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
3.1.2 LA GANADERÍA L! ($&"/,-#!#-<% (" !%-&!)"/ "% ") P"*+ -"%" ("/(" ,-"&$/ *"-/%-#$/. L! *$(##-<% 6!%!("*! "/"%#-!)&"%," ! "/,!($ $*-"%,!(! !) #$%/&$ (-*"#,$ "*$ "% )$/ +),-&$/ !9$/ ! ";"*-&"%,!($ % &!$* %-") ("
L! 6!%!("*'! "/ %! !#,--(!( "#$%<&-#! & -&$*,!%," "/,$ >" )"/ *-%(! ,*!!$ ! &#!/ 7!&-)-!/ #!&"/-%!/= #$%,*-"%($ (" "/,! &!%"*! #$% )! $)/! 7!&-)-!*. E% ") P"*+ ";-/,"% ($/ ,-$/ (" 6!%!("*'!:
a) Ganadera E!"en#$%a: L! 6!%!("*'! ";,"%/-! "/ !>") /-/,"&! (" C*-!%@! (" 6!%!($= ") #!) /" ))"! ! #!$ "% 6*!%("/ ";,"%/-$%"/ (" ,"**"%$= ($%(" )! #!*6! ! !/,! ($/ !%-&!)"/ $* "#,*"! 10.000 &2H= )! /"*-/-<% (" )$/ !%-&!)"/ /" !#" (" &!%"*! "/$*(-#!= )$/ !%-&!)"/ !/,$*"!% )-*"&"%," "))$/ &-/&$/ /" "%#!*6!% (" /#!* /")"##-$%!* / !)-&"%,!#-<% "% $,*"*$/ (" 6*!% ,!&!9$. &) Ganadera In"en#$%a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ÍA DE LA COSTA S" ("/!**$))! "% )$/ !))"/= "% )!/ @$%!/ #$)-%(!%,"/ #$% )!/ #-(!("/= /" #!*!#,"*-@! $* /"* -%,"%/-!. P*-$*-@! )! #*-!%@! (" 6!%!($/ !#%$/ (" *!@! B*$Q% SQ-//= 8$)/,"-%. GANADERÍA DE LOS ANDES S" #!*!#,"*-@! $* /"* ";,"%/-!= ! ";#"#-<% (" A*">-! C!!&!*#!= ($%(" "/ (" ,-$ -%,"%/-!. S" *!#,-#! "% )!/ /-6-"%,"/ &"/",!/ !),$ !%(-%!/= ($%(" /" #*'!% )$/ 6!%!($/ $-%$/ #!&?)-($/: C$))!$ P%$H A%,! C@#$H C&--)#!/ C@#$H #!/ A!##$H L#!%!/ A!##$H C!/,*$-**"%! 8!%#!")-#!H B$&<% %'%H o o o o o o o
GANADERÍA DE LA SELVA S" #!*!#,"*-@! $* /"* "/"%#-!)&"%," (" ,-$ -%,"%/-!= ($%(" /" *-$*-@! )! #*'! (" 6!%!($/ !#%$/ // ("*-!($/. L!/ *-%#-!)"/ @$%!/ 6!%!("*!/ /$%: 8!))!6! C"%,*!) S!% M!*,'%H o
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3.1.3 LA MINERÍ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Ind*#"r$a M$nera I%(/,*-! M",!)+*6-#!: P*$#"/!&-"%,$ (" &",!)"/ )-%6$,"/= 7$*!($/= ,$/= )!%#!/ (" !#"*$= -"@!/ !,$&$,*-#"/H I%(/,*-! (" &!,"*-!)"/ (" #$%/,*##-<%: F*-#! (" #"&"%,$= "/$= #!)= "%,*" $,*$/. 3.3. SECTOR TERCIARIO S" ("(-#!= /$*" ,$($= ! $7*"#"* /"*-#-$/ ! )! /$#-"(!(= ! )!/ "*/$%!/ ! )!/ "&*"/!/. L$ #!) /-6%-#! %! 6!&! & !&)-! (" !#,--(!("/ >" "/, "% #$%/,!%," !&"%,$. E/,! ","*$6"%"-(!( !!*#! ("/(" )! ,-"%(! (" )! "/>-%!= !/,! )!/ !),!/ %!%@!/ $ ") E/,!($. E/ % /"#,$* >" %$ *$(#" -"%"/= "*$ >" "/ 7%(!&"%,!) "% %! /$#-"(!( #!-,!)-/,! ("/!**$))!(!. S )!$* #$%/-/," "% *$$*#-$%!* ! )! $)!#-<% ,$($/ )$/ *$(#,$/ >" 7!*-#! )! -%(/,*-!= $,-"%" )! !6*-#),*! " -%#)/$ ") *$-$ /"#,$* /"*-#-$/. G*!#-!/ ! "))$/ ,"%"&$/ ,-"&$ !*! *"!)-@!* )!/ &+),-)"/ ,!*"!/ >" ";-6" )! -(! "% )! /$#-"(!( #!-,!)-/,! (" #$%/&$ (" &!/!/: *$(#-*= #$%/&-* $#!* ") ,-"&$ (" $#-$. E/= ,!&-?%= ") &/ ","*$6?%"$= "/,$ >" )$/ /"*-#-$/ >" /" "("% *"/,!* /$% -%%&"*!)"/ "%,*" "))$/ $("&$/ &"%#-$%!*:
3.3.1 TRANSPORTE: L! (-7'#-) !*-!(! 6"$6*!7'! (") P"*+ "/ )! *-&"*! #$%(-#-<% >" /" *"/"%,! !*! ") ("/!**$))$ (") ,*!%/$*," "% "/," !'/= /"! (" ,-$ ,"**"/,*"= !?*"$= &!*',-&$ $ -!). A "/!* (" "/$= ";-/,"% '!/ >" #$%"#,!% ! )!/ *-%#-!)"/ #-(!("/ (") !'/ #$% ,*"/ ,-$/ (" ,*!%/$*,"/: Tran#/(r"e "erre#"re E) P"*+ #"%,! #$% % /-/,"&! (" ,*!%/$*," ,"**"/,*" /-#!&"%," ! ,*!?/ (" #!**","*!/ )!/ #!)"/ #$%"#,!% ! ,$(!/ )!/ #!-,!)"/ (" ("!*,!&"%,$ )! &!$*'! (" )!/ #!-,!)"/ (" *$-%#-!= "*&-,-"%($ >" #!)>-"* #-(!(!%$ /" "(! &$-)-@!* #$% / "'#)$ ! )$/ *-%#-!)"/ #"%,*$/ *!%$/ (" "/," !'/= !($%(" ))"6!% ,!&-?% % /-%%+&"*$ (" )'%"!/ (" /"/ -%,"**$-%#-!)"/= &#!/ (" "))!/ #$% %-(!("/ & &$("*%!/ #$%7$*,!)"/= $,*!/ "% #!&-$ /
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0 Tran#/(r"e Are( E) ,*!%/$*," !?*"$ (") P"*+ /" "%#"%,*! ("/!**$))!($ /-*" ! )!/ 21 #-(!("/ &/ -&$*,!%,"/ #$% ")$/ *"6)!*"/ "% !-$%"/ (" (-7"*"%," ,!&!9$. A)6%!/ $)!#-$%"/ !)"!(!/= "/"#-!)&"%," (" )! /")! #"%,!% #$% !"*<(*$&$/ !*! )! *"#"#-<% (" !-$%",!/. 0 Tran#/(r"e a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•
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3.3.3 TURISMO: E) P"*+ "/ % !'/ >" #"%,! #$% !*-!($/ !,*!#,-$/ ,*'/,-#$/= ("-($ ! / #),*!= *"6-$%"/ 6"$6*#!/= *-#! -/,$*-! 6!/,*$%$&'!. E/," !'/ #"%,! #$% &/ (" #-"% &-) /-,-$/ !*>"$)<6-#$/= *!@<% $* )! #!) ") $#"%,! $* #-"%,$ (") ,*-/&$ *"#",-$ "/ (" #!*#,"* #),*!). E) P"*+ "/ % !'/ *-#$ "% (-"*/-(!( (" !%-&!)"/ )!%,!/.
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ESTRUCTURA ECONOMICA MUNDIAL E% 2014= ") #*"#-&-"%,$ &%(-!) 7" &$("*!($= (" 3=4= ("-($ !) *"%," (") #*"#-&-"%,$ (" )!/ "#$%$&'!/ !!%@!(!/ *"/"#,$ (") !9$ !%,"*-$* (" )! ("/!#")"*!#-<% (" )!/ "#$%$&'!/ (" &"*#!($/ "&"*6"%,"/ "% ("/!**$))$J !% !/'= "/,!/ +),-&!/ 6"%"*!*$% ,*"/ #!*,!/ !*,"/ (") #*"#-&-"%,$ &%(-!) "% 2014. L!/ 7"*@!/ #$&)"!/ >" -%"*$% "% )! !#,--(!( &%(-!) "% 2014 /-6"% &$)("!%($ )!/ "*/"#,-!/. E%,*" "))!/= #!" &"%#-$%!* )!/ ,"%("%#-!/ ! &"(-!%$ )!*6$ )!@$= #$&$ ") "%""#-&-"%,$ (" )! $)!#-<% ") ("#)-" (") #*"#-&-"%,$ $,"%#-!)J )$/ /$#K/ &%(-!)"/= #$&$ )! #!'(! (" )$/ *"#-$/ (") ",*<)"$J &#$/ 7!#,$*"/ "/"#'#$/ (" !'/"/ $ *"6-$%"/= #$&$ )$/ )"6!($/ (" )! #*-/-/ )!/ #,!#-$%"/ (" )$/ ,-$/ (" #!&-$ #!/!(!/ $* &$(-#!#-$%"/ !/!(!/ $ *"-/,!/ (" )!/ $)',-#!/ &$%",!*-!/. E% ,?*&-%$/ 6)$!)"/= /" *$"#,! >" ") #*"#-&-"%,$ &%(-!) !)#!%@!* 3=5 3= "% 2015 201= *"/"#,-!&"%,"= ,!) #$&$ )$ *$%$/,-#< )! A#,!)-@!#-<% (" "%"*$ (" 2015 (" P"*/"#,-!/ (" )! "#$%$&'! &%(-!) -%7$*&" XEO= $* // /-6)!/ "% -%6)?/H. S" *"? >" "% )!/ "#$%$&'!/ !!%@!(!/ ") #*"#-&-"%,$ /" !!%#" "% 2015 "% #$&!*!#-<% #$% 2014= "*$ >" "% )$/ &"*#!($/ "&"*6"%,"/ /" ("-)-,"= #$&$ #$%/"#"%#-! (" )! &$("*!#-<% (" )!/ "*/"#,-!/ (" !)6%!/ "#$%$&'!/ (" &"*#!($/ "&"*6"%,"/ 6*!%("/ (" )$/ !'/"/ ";$*,!($*"/ (" ",*<)"$. L!/ "*/"#,-!/ ! &"(-!%$ )!@$ /$% !$*! &"%$/ $,-&-/,!/ !*! )!/ "#$%$&'!/ !!%@!(!/ "/"#-!)&"%," !*! )$/ &"*#!($/ "&"*6"%,"/= #! !#,--(!( -"%" "%7*-%($/" ("/(" 2010. A) &-/&$ ,-"&$= )! (-/,*-#-<% (" )$/ *-"/6$/ !*! ") #*"#-&-"%,$ &%(-!) "/ &/ ">-)-*!(! >" "% )! "(-#-<% (" $#,*" (" 2014 (") -%7$*&" XEO= "*$ !% !/' /" -%#)-%! ! )! !!. U% -&$*,!%," *-"/6$ !) !)@! "/ >" )$/ *"#-$/ (") ",*<)"$ -%7%(!% % "/,'&)$ &!$* ! )! ("&!%(!J $* $,*! !*,"= )$/ *-"/6$/ ! )! !! &/ ("/,!#!($/ >" "%&"*< )! "(-#-<% (" $#,*" (" 2014 (") -%7$*&" XEO /-6"% /-"%($ *")"!%,"/= " -%#)"% )$/ -%#)!($/ ! )!/ ,"%/-$%"/ 6"$$)',-#!/= ("/)!@!&-"%,$/ (" )$/ *"#-$/ (" )$/ !#,-$/ >" *$(#"% ,*!/,$*%$/ "% )$/ &"*#!($/ %!%#-"*$/ = "% )!/ "#$%$&'!/ !!%@!(!/= "/,!%#!&-"%,$ !! -%!#-<%. E% "/," #$%,";,$= ") !&"%,$ (") *$(#,$ "7"#,-$ P$,"%#-!) /-6" /-"%($ *-$*-,!*-$ !*! )! $)',-#! 6"%"*!). E% &#!/ "#$%$&'!/ !!%@!(!/= )! $*-"%,!#-<% !#$&$(!,-#-! (" )! $)',-#! &$%",!*-! #$%,-%+! /-"%($ "/"%#-!) !*! !%,!)!* )! !#,--(!( "#$%<&-#! ")"!* )!/
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!'/"/ >" *"/"%,!% )! &/ !),! -%"/,!-)-(!( $)',-#!. E% ") *-&"* )6!* "/, )! R"+)-#! C"%,*$!7*-#!%! "% ") -6?/-&$ E,-$'!= &-"%,*!/ S!%,$ T$&? P*'%#-" *"6-/,*! ") -%#*"&"%,$ (" *-"/6$ &/ !),$ #$% *"/"#,$ ! 2014= % 3. E/!9! \#$&$ /" "(" $/"*!* "% ") &!!\ $/,"%,! % *-"/6$ &"(-!%$= %,$ ! !'/"/ #$&$ P$*,6!)= I,!)-!= E/)$"%-!= C*$!#-!= 8%6*'! R&!%'!= %! &"%$* "/,!-)-(!( #$% *"/"#,$ ! S-@!= F*!%#-! A)"&!%-!= "%,*" $,*$/ ") *$$ -%(-#! % %-") (" -%"/,!-)-(!( & 7"*,"= ") !@) % *-"/6$ & !$H. E% ") -%7$*&"= >" M!*/ ! ")!$*!($ #$% )! #$)!$*!#-<% (" B/-%"// M$%-,$* I%,"*%!,-$%!) BMIH= "&*"/! (") 6*$ F-,#= /" /"9!)!% )$/ /-"," 7!#,$*"/ >" #!)"%,!*% ") &!! (" )! "#$%$&'! &%(-!) "/," !9$. E) #*($ "% #!'(! )-*". E) *-($ ("/#"%/$ (") *"#-$ (") !**-)= /- $* % )!($ "%"#-! ! )$/ !'/"/ -&$*,!($*"/ \ C-%!= "%,*" "))$/\ !) *"(#-* )! -%!#-<% )$/ *-"/6$/ $)',-#$/= $* ") $,*$ ,"*&-%!* ,"%-"%($ % -&!#,$ %"6!,-$ "% )$/ !'/"/ ";$*,!($*"/. D"/(" "/," %,$ (" -/,!= V"%"@")! *"/"%,! ") &!$* *-"/6$= !) /"* & )%"*!)" $)',-#!&"%," ("-($ ! >" ") #*($ *"*"/"%,! ") 5 (" // ";$*,!#-$%"/ &/ (" )! &-,!( (" )$/ -%6*"/$/ +)-#$/. E;-/," )! $/--)-(!( #$%#*",! (" >" "/,! (")-#!(! /-,!#-<% ("/"&$>" "% (-/,*-$/= /"6+% M!*/. D" "))$ !*"#" "/,!* #$%/#-"%," ") *"/-("%," "%"@$)!%$= N-#$)/ M!(*$= >" "/, "7"#,!%($ -/-,!/ $#-!)"/ ! !*-$/ !'/"/ *$(#,$*"/ (" ",*<)"$ \"/," &!*,"/ /" "%#"%,*! "% A*6")-!\ !*! )$6*!* % !#"*($ >" "*&-,! !!* )! *$(##-<% (" #*($ !&"%,!* ") *"#-$ (") !**-)= ! ,*!?/ (" %! (-/&-%#-<% D" )! $7"*,!. L! #$%/),$*! "-("%#-! >" )$/ E/,!($/ >" /" "%#"%,*!% ,!&-?% !$ % *-"/6$ !),$ ("-($ ! )! 6"**! (") $*$ %"6*$ /$% A%6$)!= C!(= G-%"! E#!,$*-!) " I*%. C$**"% % *-"/6$ /""*$ R"+)-#! (") C$%6$= G!<%= I*!K= N-6"*-! S(%= &-"%,*!/ C$)$&-!= E#!($*= M?;-#$ R/-! ,"%(*% % *-"/6$ &$("*!($. S"!*!($/ $* )!/ *"7$*&!/. L! /"6%(! 7"%," (" ,"%/-<% >" ("/,!#! M!*/ $*-6-%! "% )! (-"*6"%#-! "%,*" )$/ !'/"/ "&"*6"%,"/ >" *"/"%,!% 7"*,"/ $$*,%-(!("/ (" -%"*/-<%= 6*!#-!/ ! )!/ *"7$*&!/ "#$%<&-#!/ >" "/,% !#$&",-"%($= )$/ >" %$. C-%!= I%(-!= I%($%"/-!= M?;-#$ A*6"%,-%! $7*"#"% "%!/ "*/"#,-!/= /"6+% )! #$%/),$*!. L! -$)"%#-! 7"*! (" #$%,*$) "% A/-!. S- 2014 ! /-($ ") !9$ "% ") >" )! -$)"%#-! $)',-#! /" ! &!%-7"/,!($ /$*" ,$($ "% ]7*-#! O*-"%,!)= O*-"%," M"(-$= ]7*-#! (") N$*,"= U#*!%-!= T!-)!%(-! 8$%6 $%6= "/," !9$ $,*$/ !'/"/ (" A/-! C"%,*!)= #$% *$#"/$/ *"/-("%#-!)"/ $!#$/= $(*'!% (!* )6!* ! )#!/ (" $("*= /"6+% ") -%7$*&" (" M!*/. L$/ &$-&-"%,$/ /"!*!,-/,!/ "% ") $$ (") *!#%. G*$/ $)',-#$/ *"6-$%!)"/ $ ?,%-#$/ >" /#!% )! -%(""%("%#-! $ % 7$*,!)"#-&-"%,$ (" / $("* 6"%"*!*% -%#"*,-(&*"=
*"@! ") -%7$*&". E) *"7"*?%(& (" E/#$#-! $(*'! /"*-* (" -%/-*!#-<% ! )$/ &$-&-"%,$/ /"!*!,-/,!/ (" C!,!)9!= B$/%-!8"*@"6$-%!= !/' #$&$ ! $,*$/ !'/"/ (" E*$!= ]7*-#! A/-!.
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
CONTRACORRIENTE EN LA ECONOMÍ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
L$/ -*!,!/ #-"*%?,-#$/. I%,"**&-* )! !#,--(!( (" )!/ "&*"/!/ *$$#!* ?*(-(!/= /$% )$/ *-%#-!)"/ $",-$/ (" )$/ #-"*!,!>"/ *$&$-($/ $* E/,!($/= >" /-6"% /-"%($ %$ (" )$/ 6*!%("/ *-"/6$/= /"6+% )! #$%/),$*!. S !,$*'! "/ (-7'#-) (" *$!*.
PERSPECTIVAS MUNDIALES A MEDIANO PLA>O S" *$%$/,-#! >" ") #*"#-&-"%,$ &%(-!) ";"*-&"%,!*! % !&"%,$ &!*6-%!) ("/?/ (" 201= ! >" ") *"%," !(-#-$%!) "% )!/ "#$%$&'!/ (" &"*#!($/ "&"*6"%,"/ "% ("/!**$))$ #$&"%/!*'! % #*"#-&-"%,$ &/ ,'&-($ "% )!/ "#$%$&'!/ !!%@!(!/. E/," *"%," /" ("" &/ >" %!(! ! )! *"/%#-<% (" % *"6*"/$ !)!,-%$ ! ,!/!/ (" #*"#-&-"%,$ &/ %$*&!)"/ "% )$/ !'/"/ )! *"6-$%"/ >" /" "%#$%,*!*!% /$&",-($/ ! ,"%/-$%"/ $ ,"%(*% % #*"#-&-"%,$ & -%7"*-$* !) $,"%#-!) "% 2015\1 #$&$ R/-!= B*!/-)= ") *"/,$ (" A&?*-#! L!,-%! !)6%!/ !*,"/ (" O*-"%," M"(-$H. P$* $,*! !*,"= )!/ "#$%$&'!/ !!%@!(!/ #*"#"*'!% ! ,!/!/ &/ &$("*!(!/ ! !*,-* (" 201= ("-($ ! )! ")-&-%!#-<% 6*!(!) (" )!/ *"#!/ (") *$(#,$ "/"#-!)&"%," "% )! @$%! (") "*$ E/,!($/ U%-($/ ($%(" -%"% )! "*/-/,"%#-! (" )$/ )"6!($/ (" )! #*-/-/ )! -%#"*,-(&*" "% ,$*%$ ! )!/ $)',-#!/H !/' #$&$ ! )$/ "7"#,$/ (" )$/ 7!#,$*"/ ("&$6*#$/ "% )! $7"*,! (" &!%$ (" $*! = $* )$ ,!%,$= "% ") *$(#,$ $,"%#-!).
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
CRECIMIENTO ECONOMICO MUNDIAL L! *$"##-<% (") #*"#-&-"%,$ &%(-!) !%,! ! % !&"%,$ &$("*!($ "% ") 2015 1= (" 3=3 "% 2014 ! 3=5 "% 2015 3= "% 201 E/,$ *"*"/"%,! %! *"-/-<% ! )! !! (" 0=3 "% !&$/ !9$/ "% #$&!*!#-<% #$% )! "(-#-<% (" $#,*" (" 2014 (" P"*/"#,-!/ (" )! "#$%$&'! &%(-!). D-"*/$/ 7!#,$*"/ *"#-"%,"/= >" !% !7"#,!($ ! (-/,-%,$/ !'/"/ (" (-7"*"%,"/ &!%"*!/= !% &$)("!($ )! "#$%$&'! &%(-!) ("/(" )! )-#!#-<% (" )! "(-#-<% (" $#,*" (") -%7$*&" XEO= !*&! ") -%7$*&": L$/ %"$/ 7!#,$*"/ >" *"/!)(!% ") #*"#-&-"%,$ ^)! #!'(! (" )$/ *"#-$/ (") ",*<)"$= ,!&-?% )! ("*"#-!#-<% (") "*$ (") "%^ "/,% &/ >" #$&"%/!($/ $* 7"*@!/ %"6!,-!/ "*/-/,"%,"/J "%,*" "))!/=
Pr$er( = )! *$"##-<% (") #*"#-&-"%,$ (" C-%!= ($%(" )! ";!%/-<% (" )! -%"*/-<% /" ! "%7*-!($ = /"6+% )!/ *"-/-$%"/= #$%,-%!* ! )! !!= ! /-($ *"-/!(! ! )! !!= ! &"%$/ (" . S" *"? "% "/," &$&"%,$ >" )!/ !,$*-(!("/ !*% &/ ?%7!/-/ "% *"(#-* )!/ )%"*!-)-(!("/ 6"%"*!(!/ $* ") *"#-"%," #*"#-&-"%,$ *-($ (") #*?(-,$ )! -%"*/-<% = $* )$ ,!%,$= )!/ *"-/-$%"/ #$%,"&)!% %! $)',-#! (" *"/"/,! &"%$/ ("#-/-! 7*"%," ! "/,! &$("*!#-<%. S-% "&!*6$= "/,! (-/&-%#-<% (") #*"#-&-"%,$ "/, !7"#,!%($ !) *"/,$ (" A/-!. Se?*nd(= )!/ "*/"#,-!/ "#$%<&-#!/ (" R/-! /$% &#$ &"%$/ !)"%,!($*!/= #$% %! *$"##-<% (" #*"#-&-"%,$ ("
\3=0 !*! 2015 #$&$ *"/),!($ (") -&!#,$ "#$%<&-#$ (" )! 7"*," #!'(! (" )$/ *"#-$/ (") ",*<)"$ ") *"#*("#-&-"%,$ (" )!/ ,"%/-$%"/ 6"$$)',-#!/. Ter+er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
RIESGOS PARA LA RECUPERACIN L! (-/,*-#-<% (" *-"/6$/ !*! ") #*"#-&-"%,$ &%(-!) "/, &/ ">-)-*!(! >" "% $#,*"= /"9!)! )! A#,!)-@!#-<% (") -%7$*&" XEO. D") )!($ $/-,-$= )! #!'(! (" )$/ *"#-$/ (") ",*<)"$ $(*'! *-%(!* % "/,'&)$ &!$* (") *"-/,$. O,*$/ *-"/6$/ >" $(*'!% "&!9!* )!/ "*/"#,-!/ /$% % ")#$ (") /"%,-* (" )! $)!,-)-(!( (" )$/ &"*#!($/ %!%#-"*$/ -%,"*%!#-$%!)"/= "/"#-!)&"%," "% )!/ "#$%$&'!/ (" &"*#!($/ "&"*6"%,"/. C$% ,$($= )! ";$/-#-<% ! "/,$/ *-"/6$/ ! #!&-!($ "%,*" )!/ "#$%$&'!/ (" &"*#!($/ "&"*6"%,"/ ("-($ ! )! 7"*," #!'(! (" )$/ *"#-$/ (") ",*<)"$: ! !&"%,!($ "% )$/ !'/"/ ";$*,!($*"/ (" ",*<)"$= #!/ )%"*!-)-(!("/ /" !% !6(-@!($ "% ") &-,$ ";,"*%$ "% ") (" )$/ !)!%#"/= ! (-/&-%-($ "%,*" )$/ -&$*,!($*"/ (" ",*<)"$= >" !% $(-($ *"7$*@!* )$/ !&$*,-6!($*"/
PRIORIDADES EN MATERIA DE POLÍ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
DESA7IOS @UE EN7RENTARA LA ECONOMIA MUNDIAL EL 2=16 L! #!'(! (") *"#-$ (") #*($= )! #*-/-/ "% )! @$%! "*$ )! -%#"*,-(&*" "% )$/ &"*#!($/= /$% !)6%$/ (" )$/ 7!#,$*"/ >" /"6+% ") "*-<(-#$ _T" G!*(-!%_ -%-*% "% )! "#$%$&'! &%(-!) "% ") !9$ 2015. E) 2015 /"* % !9$ (" -&$*,!%,"/ #!&-$/ !*! )! "#$%$&'! &%(-!)= #$%/-("*! _T" G!*(-!%_ S"6+% ") "*-<(-#$ *-,%-#$= ! "/!* (" >" !*! !)6%$/ !'/"/ ") *<;-&$ !9$ "(" /"* %! ?$#! (" &"$*!/ "% / /-,!#-<% "#$%<&-#! %!%#-"*!= ! %! /"*-" (" 7!#,$*"/ >" "("% !6*!!* !+% &/ )! "#$%$&'! 6)$!).
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CONCLUSIONES
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L! $)',-#! "#$%<&-#! (") P"*+ )! "$)#-<% "#$%<&-#! ! !*,-* (") 2004 ! /-($ !/,!%," "%!. M!%,"%"* %! $)',-#! &!#*$"#$%<&-#! /!%! 7!$*!)" !) #*"#-&-"%,$= "% % &!*#$ (" $)',-#! "#$%<&-#! /$#-!) >" ,"%6! %! -/-<% ! )!*6$ )!@$ "*&-,! #$&!,-* "**!(-#!* )! ("/-6!)(!( ";#)/-<%. E/ ") *",$ >" ,$($/ )$/ "*!%$/ (""&$/ !)#!%@!*. U% !'/ !!%@! "% #$%%,$ #$% ,$($/ )$/ #$&$%"%,"/ (" / "#$%$&'!= /-"&*" 6-%($%$/ (" )!/ "/,!('/,-#!/ >" /" ";,*!"% (" #!(! !9$ "*-$($ "#$%<&-#$ (" !#"*($ !) 6$-"*%$ "% ,*!%/-#-<%.
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
A*$,$&! C.= S. 12H. O*6!%-@!#-<% G"/,-<% I%,"6*!(! (" U%-(!("/ M-#*$*"6-$%!)"/: C$&",-,--(!( R"6-$%!). A!##$= P"*+: COGEI UNSC8.