Big Red Poll Exec Summary Spring 18 FINAL COPY

THE BIG RED POLL Politics in Kentucky April 11-15, 2018 Dr. Joel Turner Director, WKU Social Science Research Center

SURVEY METHODOLOGY The WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 531 Kentucky residents between April 11-15, 2018. 67% of respondents were reached via land line, and 33% were reached via cell phone. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.2%.

Donald Trump

10 45 45

Appr Ap prov ove e

Disa Di sap ppr prov ove e

Und nde eci cide ded d

DONALD TRUMP 45% approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, 45% disapprove, and 10% are undecided. 73% of Republicans approve of the President, while only 23% of Democrats and 33% of Independents approve of the job Trump Trump is doing. Trump has a 65% approval rating among conservatives, 42% approval among moderates, and 16% approval among liberals.

Matt Bevin

12 32

56

Appr Ap prov ove e

Disa Di sapp ppro rove ve

Unde Un deci cid ded

MATT BEVIN Only 32% of Kentuckians approve of the job Matt Bevin is doing as governor, while 56% disapprove, and 12% are undecided. Bevin has an approval rating of 45% among Republicans, 17% among Democrats, and 32% among Independents. Bevin has a 46% approval rating among conservatives, 25% approval among moderates, and 20% approval among liberals.

Kentucky Legislature

17

25

58

Appr Ap prov ove e


Unde Un deci cide ded d

KENTUCKY LEGISLATURE Only 25% of Kentuckians approve of the job done by the Kentucky legislature. 58% disapprove, and 17% are undecided. The legislature has has a 31% approval approval rating among Republicans, 20% among Democrats, and 23% among Independents. The legislature has a 26% approval approval rating among conservatives, 26% approval among moderates, and 19% approval among liberals.

Mitch McConnell

14 30

56

Appr Ap prov ove e


Unde Un deci cid ded

MITCH MCCONNELL 30% of Kentuckians approve of the job Mitch McConnell is doing as Senator. 56% disapprove, and 14% are undecided. He has an approval rating of 37% among Republicans, 21% among Democrats, and 30% among Independents. McConnell has a 28% approval rating among conservatives, 35% approval among moderates, and 21% approval among liberals.

Rand Paul

13 45 42

Appr Ap prov ove e


Unde Un deci cide ded d

RAND PAUL Among state politicians we asked asked about Rand Paul has the highest highest approval rating at 45%. 42% of Kentuckians disapprove, and 13% are undecided. undecided. He has an approval rating of 60% among Republicans, 23% among Democrats, and 55% among Independents. Paul has a 60% approval rating among conservatives, 43% approval among moderates, and 24% approval among liberals. BIGGEST PROBLEM Respondents were asked to name the biggest biggest problem currently facing Kentucky. The answer most commonly given was the pension crisis c risis (19%), followed by the opiod crisis (15%) and education (10%). Of course, it is possible that at least least some of those mentioning mentioning education would have been referring to the pension situation. No other problem mentioned managed managed to reach double digits in terms of frequency. PENSION CRISIS We asked a variety of questions regarding the pension crisis crisis facing Kentucky. First, we asked respondents if they they favored Governor Bevin’s position, the teacher’s position, or if they were neutral between the two. 53% expressed support for the teachers, teachers, 16% expressed support for for the Governor, and 20% indicated neutrality. neutrality. From a partisan standpoint, support for the the Governor’s position was highest among Republicans (28%), while support for the teacher’s position position exceeded 50% among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. Ideologically, support for for the Governor’s position is highest among conservatives (30%), while the greatest greate st support for teachers comes from liberals (75%).

Compounding problems for the Governor, 62% disapproved of the manner in which he has handled the pension issue, while only 29% approve of his handling of it. His highest level level of approval came from conservatives (43%) and Republicans (41%), while the greatest disapproval came from liberals and Democrats (78% each). We also asked respondents about their level le vel of support for tax increases, marijuana legalization, and casino gambling as mechanism by which to address the pension shortfall. shortfall. Casino gambling gambling was the most popular option (56%). (56%). This option was supported by 58% of Republican, 57% of Democrats, and 56% of Independents. Independents. Marijuana legalization (46%) was was the second most popular option. Marijuana legalization was supported supported by 51% of Democrats, 47% of

Independents, and 43% of Republicans. Tax increases, with only 29% support, was the least popular option among Kentuckians. In the wake of recent rece nt teacher protests, we also asked if these d emonstrations, and accompanying school closings, made respondents more likely to support, less likely to support, or ha d no impact imp act on support for pension reform. The protests appear to have have had the desired effect, as 36% indicated it made them less less likely to support support pension reform. 32% indicated that these these actions had no impact, and 18% indicated it made them more likely to support pension reform. These protests also had a positive impact across all partisan and ideological groups, as they made conservatives (30%), moderates (37%), and liberals (48%) all less likely to support pension reform. During the midst of the survey, the Governor made his controversial remarks regarding children in Kentucky being sexually assaulted or otherwise harmed due to being left at home unattended as a result of the teacher teacher protest and corresponding school cancellations. Although the sample is not large enough to make broad claims regarding the impact of this, we do have enough pre- and post-comment data to take a look at the general impact of these remarks.

Bevin Approval App roval Pre- and Post-Remarks Post-Remarks 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Before Remarks

After Remarks Appr Ap prov ove e


Nott su No sure re/r /ref efus used ed

Roughly a quarter of the sample was contacted after Bevin’s remarks. What we see is roughly roughly a 7 point decline as his approval ap proval before the remarks was 34%, while his approval after the remarks was 27%. His disapproval rose from 55% before his remarks remarks to 60% after his remarks. Although we do not have enough respondents pre- and post-remarks to perform more nuanced analysis, it does appear that they did indeed negatively impact his approval. GUN POLICY We asked a variety of questions regarding gun policy in the wake of high profile school shootings that have occurred in the the U.S. First, we asked respondents respondents if they favored having an

armed resource officer at all all public schools. This proposal received overwhelming support from Kentuckians (70%). Support for this was bipartisan, as it was supported supported by 78% of Republicans, 72% of Independents, and 63% of Democrats, and crossed ideological lines, as it was supported by a majority of moderates, liberals, and conservatives. conservatives. Additionally, 63% of those in favor of this also supported a tax increase in order to pay for it. Again, in each instance a majority of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents demonstrated support for this proposal. Finally, 70% of respondents favored raising the minimum age to purchase an AR-15 from 18 to 21. This policy was supported by 79% of Democrats, 73% of Independents, Independents, and 64% of Republicans. This proposal also received received 82% support from liberals, 79% support from moderates, and 62% from conservatives. ABOUT THE WKU SSRC The WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology, and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person interviews. interviews. For the latest news on what is happening at the WKU WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) (faceb ook.com/WKUSSRC) or follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).

DONALD TRUMP Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President? Approve Disapprove Not sure/refused sure/refused

Approve Disapprove Not sure/refused sure/refused

All 45 45 10

18-34 40 32 28

Gender Men Women 52 43 39 46 9 11 Age 35-49 50-64 30 33 40 38 40 19

Party Id Rep Dem 73 22 17 76 10 2

65+ 54 30 16

Ind 33 48 19

Ideology Con Mod 65 42 26 42 19 18

Race White Non-White 75 41 10 38 15 10

Lib 16 82 2

<50 49 42 10

HS or less 44 41 15

Income 50<100 44 44 12

100+ 48 45 8

Education College Adv. Degree 50 35 41 62 19 3

MATT BEVIN Do you approve or disapprove of the way Matt Bevin is handling his job as Governor? Approve Disapprove Not sure/refused sure/refused


All 45 45 10

18-34 30 55 15


Party Id Rep Dem 45 18 43 76 12 6

65+ 37 61 2

Ind 32 51 17



Lib 20 72 8

<50 34 55 11

HS or less 36 55 9

Income 50<100 24 60 16

100+ 40 52 8

Education College 31 55 14

Adv. Degree 32 56 12

KENTUCKY LEGISLATURE Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Kentucky state legislature is handling its job? Approve Disapprove Not sure/refused sure/refused

AD Approve Disapprove Not sure/refused sure/refused

All 45 45 10

18-34 31 58 11


Party Id Rep Dem 31 20 50 65 19 15

65+ 16 64 20

Ind 23 61 16



Lib 19 70 11

<50 26 52 22

HS or less 26 54 20

Income 50<100 22 73 5 Education College 25 58 17

100+ 25 58 17

Adv. Degree 20 69 11

MITCH MCCONNELL Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as Senator? Approve Disapprove Not sure/refused sure/refused


All 45 45 10

18-34 45 45 10


Party Id Rep Dem 37 21 47 67 16 12

65+ 14 64 22

Ind 30 56 14



Lib 21 68 11

<50 32 53 15

HS or less 34 56 10

Income 50<100 28 60 12

100+ 27 62 11

Education College Adv. Degree 28 26 55 65 17 9

RAND PAUL Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as Senator? Approve Disapprove Not sure/refused sure/refused


All 45 45 10

18-34 43 42 15


Party Id Rep Dem 60 23 28 61 12 14

65+ 44 50 6

Ind 55 38 8

White 46 41 13

Ideology Con Mod 60 43 31 38 9 19 Race Non-White 39 53 8

Lib 24 65 11

<50 46 40 14

HS or less 39 48 13

Income 50<100 36 52 12

100+ 45 43 12

Education College 50 38 12

Adv. Degree 44 47 9

PARTY IDENTIFICATION Regardless of how you voted in the last election, do you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

Democrat Independent Republican Not Sure

36% 20% 40% 4%

IDEOLOGY On a scale of one to ten where one represents very liberal and ten represents very conservative where would you place yourself? ***(1-4 classified as liberal, 5-6 as moderate, and 7 -10 as conservative)***

Liberal Moderate Conservative Refused

24% 32% 40% 4%

SEX What is your sex?

Male Female

46% 54%

EDUCATION What is the highest level of formal education you completed?

Less Than High School Some High School High School Graduate/GED Vocational/Technical School Some College College Degree Post-Graduate Degree

2% 3% 26% 10% 21% 26% 12%

RACE Would you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American, Asian American, Biracial, or something else? ***(collapsed into white/non-white categories)***

White Non-white

88% 12%

AGE What is your age?

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

26% 30% 30% 18%

INCOME Which of the following categories best describes your total household yearly income? Less than 25,000, 25,000 to less than 50,000, 50,000 to less than 75,000, 75,000 to less than 100,000, or 100,000 or more? ***(collapsed into less than 50,000, 50,000 to 100,000, and more than 100,000)***

Less than 50,000 50,000 to <100,000 100,000 or more Refused

46% 38% 16% 9%

PENSION 1 Governor Bevin and a large number of teachers have been in disagreement over how to reform the pension for Kentucky teachers. Are you generally more supportive supportive of the Governors position, the teachers’ position, teachers’ position, or are you generally neutral in the in the political debate over pension reform.

Governor Teachers Neutral Not sure/refused

Governor Teachers Neutral Not sure/refused sure/refused

16% 53% 20% 11% Party Id Rep Dem Dem 28 6 38 71 24 13 8 10

Ind 10 50 28 13

Ideology Con Mod 30 9 36 63 26 19 8 9

Lib 7 75 12 6

PENSION 2 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Bevin has handled the pension crisis?

Approve Disapprove Not sure/Refused


29% 62% 9%

Rep 41 48 11

Party Id Dem Dem 16 78 7

Ind 32 60 8

Con 43 48 9

Ideology Mod 24 66 10

Lib 18 78 5

PENSION 3 Several school districts across Kentucky closed over the past c ouple of weeks to allow teacher to go to Frankfort to protest pension reform legislation. legislation. Did these actions make you more likely to support, less likely to support, or have no impa ct on your support of proposed pension reform?

More likely Less likely No impact Not sure/Refused

More likely Less likely No impact Not sure/refused sure/refused

18% 36% 32% 14%

Rep 23 36 23 18

Party Id Dem Dem 18 44 27 12

Ind 16 27 43 14

Con 22 30 44 4

Ideology Mod 18 37 33 1

Lib 17 48 16 0

PENSION 4 Do you support or oppose the following proposals as ways to help the state government fund the state's pension obligations?

Tax increases Support Oppose Not sure/Refused

24% 54% 22%

Marijuana Legalization Support Oppose Not sure/Refused

46% 39% 15%

Casino Gambling Support Oppose Not sure/Refused

56% 22% 22%

ARMED RESOURCE OFFICER Do you think the state of Kentucky should, or should not, allocate state money each year to pay the salary and other related expenses expe nses to put a full-time armed, trained law enforcement e nforcement officer -known as a school resource officer -- in every public school in the state?

Should Should not Not sure/Refused

70% 15% 15%

ARMED RESOURCE OFFICER FOLLOW UP Would you support an increase in taxes to support putting a school resource officer in every Kentucky public school? ***(asked to those who answered should to previous question)***

Yes No Not sure/Refused

63% 20% 17%

AR-15 AGE LIMIT Do you think Kentuck y should, or should not, pass a law la w raising the minimum age for purchasing a semi-automatic weapon, such as the AR-15, from 18-21 years old?

Should Should not Not sure/Refused

70% 23% 7%

BIGGEST PROBLEM What do you believe is the biggest biggest problem facing facing Kentucky? ***(open ended)***

Pension crisis Opiod crisis Education All others combined

19% 15% 10% 56%

***Problems listed are ones that reached double digit percentage in mentions***

Big Red Poll Exec Summary Spring 18 FINAL COPY

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