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CULTURE VULTURE 2018 In our seventh annual deep dive into the big trends pervading U.S. culture, we explore the current angst plaguing Americans, the new definition of suburbia, today’s modern parenting struggles, and how shopping is becoming more polarized (along with other interesting things, like breaking down the allure of shiny new things).
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THE GREA GR EAT T AMERICAN CRISIS(?)
SAFE HAVENS
03 THE MIDDLEBURBS
TOP CULTURAL TRENDS
04 CHILDHOOD, REIMAGINED
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GEN NICE: COMING OF AGE
EXTREME EXCHANGES
GREAT EXPECTATIONS
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RETURN TO THE LONG TERM
RISE OF THE ASIAN ECONOMY
SHINY NEW OBJECTS
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On the surface, sur face, Americans are doing well. People have more disposable income and can afford things they couldn’t couldn’t in the past. past . Despite this, there’s there’s an angst that pervades per vades consumers’ outlook.
Although 67% of consumers say “I’m very happy with my life as is,” 59% believe that this is the lowest point in our nation’s history that they can remember. We have a natural aversion to the feeling of getting less than others, and with rising income inequality and more perceived injustice, that’s exactly how some consumers feel. Sixty five percent say society grants an unfair advantage to some groups. This is magnified by social media; nearly two-thirds two -thirds say “social media has made people more envious of each other. other.”” The angst of feeling trapped in a stagnant position while everyone else seems to be benefiting is amplified by our tribal natures. As we gravitate toward groups with common values and motivations, THE GREAT AMERICAN CRISIS(?) 2018 TREND REPORT
it becomes easier to suppress dissenting perspectives. No wonder many groups feel left behind — nearly half of white working-class Americans say “things have changed so much that I often feel like a stranger in my own country.” Younger generations are experiencing this fragmentation too, leaving them feeling less connected to the 5
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WE HAVE A NATURAL AVERSION TO GETTING LESS�NOT TO INEQUITY. PAUL BLOOM PSYCHOLOGIST AT YALE UNIVERSITY
” country as a whole. Millennials are half as likely as Baby Boomers to say that the U.S. best represents who they are — they t hey relate to state and online communities instead. Brands have the difficult task of responding to this angst without isolating valuable consumer segments. Companies like Target, Jim Beam, and Papa John’s have faced backlash over statements supporting and opposing certain causes, causing PR nightmares and affecting bottom bot tom lines. Additionally, only 36% of consumers believe companies should comment on social and political situations — so brands must choose wisely when getting involved.
THE GREAT AMERICAN CRISIS(?) 2018 TREND REPORT
IMPLICATIONS 01
Figure out where your brand should and shouldn’t play on the continuum of social concerns.
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If getting involved in a cause, test involvement against current and potential customers.
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Keep up with the cultural zeitgeist (e.g. subscribe to your weekly Culture Briefings).
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IT’S ONLY ONLY AMONG HUMANS THAT YOU FIND VERY LARGE GROUPS WHO ARE ABLE TO CO� OPERATE. OPERA TE. BUT IN THIS CASE, CA SE, IT’S GROUPS UNITED TO FIGHT OTH� ER GROUPS, PROBABLY COMING FROM OUR LONG HISTORY OF TRIBAL LIVING. JONATHAN HAIDT PROFESSOR AT NYU
” Which of the following best represents who you are and your values? (%) Millennials
Gen X
Baby Boomers
31
22 18 15
16 13
12 12 13
14 9
7 3 The country I live in
The state I live in
My local community
8
6
The communities that I’m a part of online
3 The sports teams I root for
4 4 The school I went/go to
Sources: American Psychological Association, Mindshare’s Pool, PRRI, Simmons
THE GREAT AMERICAN CRISIS(?) 2018 TREND REPORT
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In 2005, the average person owned 156 CDs. Today, we have instant access to over two billion Spotify playlists. With seemingly endless content options, the world seems more complex than ever.
Consumers are feeling the effect effects, s, with 67% saying they “find the world to be increasingly complex” (up from 56% in 2012). And having too many options takes a toll on decision-making. Many people feel paralyzed by choice — nearly half say they sometimes “spend more time trying to decide what to watch than actually watching something.” Others fall back on was the largest box office year for safe bets: over half of consumers horror films, with hits like It and admit to watching an entire TV Get Out providing safe havens series multiple times. for viewers to replace real-life fear with fiction and experience Whatever Whatev er content they choose, for negative emotions in manageable many consumers, it’s an escape environments. from the anxiety of everyday life. Nearly two-thirds say they “use As shows and movies play a content to take my mind off of bigger role in one’s identity, negative things going on in the escapism goes beyond a solo world.” One surprising stress- pursuit. From Meetup groups relieving genre? Horror — 2017 hosting Game of Thrones watch SAFE HAVENS 2018 TREND REPORT
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63% 63 %
AGREE: “I USE CONTENT AND AGREE: “I ENTERTAINMENT TO TAKE MY MIND OFF OF NEGATIVE NEGATIVE THINGS GOING ON IN THE WORLD”
parties to conventions like Comic Con and RTX, content lovers are herding together to form collective escapism. Some brands go a step further. Netflix’s Bed ‘N’ Binge room allows people to binge shows in themed rooms. And Disney recently announced plans for a Star Wars luxury hotel, complete with costumes and customized storylines for guests — proving that escapism goes beyond the screen.
SAFE HAVENS 2018 TREND REPORT
IMPLICATIONS 01
How can your product or brand create or align to a “safe haven” for consumers?
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Find ways to simplify messaging or block out noise in the age of complexity.
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Does your 2018 tentpole strategy align with consumers’ changing behaviors?
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WHEN FANS LISTEN TO A BACHELOR OR BACHELORETTE PODCAST,, THEY’RE PODCAST THEY’ RE ENTERING THE SHARED COMMUNITY OF FANS THE SAME WAY FANS OF A FANTASY EPIC �OR AN NHL FRANCHISE� MIGHT MIGHT.. PASTE MAGAZINE
” Agree “I find the world world to be increasingly complex” complex” (%)
56%
2012
58%
2013
61%
2014
64%
66%
67%
2015
2016
2017
Sources: ICM, Mindshare’s Mindreader, Mindshare’s Pool
SAFE HAVENS 2018 TREND REPORT
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The great urban revival is relocating — to suburbia. And these aren’t your mother’s suburbs. Communities sitting on the edges of urban centers are developing unique economic and cultural identities.
That’s leaving today’s boom looking rather different from the one that took place in the 1950s, when “the father of modern American suburbia” William Levitt applied mass production to home building. Back then, the suburbs depended heavily on the urban centers they surrounded — a city/ suburb relationship sociologists identified as a monocentric model.
rather, Millennials settling down, shifting population growth from Over time, developers have made urban counties to suburban more walkable downtown areas ones. And as more young people in communities outside of cities, move to the suburbs, they’re causing this relationship to turn bringing urban expectations into a polycentric model, with with them. Stereotypically urban many economic centers operating establishments like pop-up shops independently of one another another.. This and food halls have begun to shift is blurring the line between cross over into suburban living. cities and suburbs. Millennials are even adding an Instagram-inspired twist on You can thank Millennials — or home-buying, hiring professional MIDDLEBURBS 2018 TREND REPORT
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THE GREAT URBAN REVIVAL RE VIVAL MIGHT NOT BE ENDING, IT MIGHT MIG HT JUST BE RELOCA RELOCATING. TING. INSTEAD OF PILING INTO EXISTING CORES, AMERICANS MIGHT MIG HT SIMPLY SIMPLY BE CREATING NEW ONES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. BLOOMBERG
” photographers to capture the moment they step into their new pads. Suburban infrastructure has also shifted. For example, The Arcade Providence in Rhode Island was one of the oldest libraries in the country. With a rising demand for housing in the area, it’s now a swanky apartment complex within a walkable city center. New York’s Knitting Factory music venue has bought small concert halls in suburban Minnesota, bringing more opportunity and culture to the city outskirts — and giving the suburbs a whole new feel.
MIDDLEBURBS 2018 TREND REPORT
IMPLICATIONS 01
Does your current brand proposition draw in Middleburbia consumers and address their needs?
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Implement your local marketing strategy so that it appeals to a Middleburb mentality.
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Use signals and data to help identify Middleburbs for 2018 business opportunities.
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THE NAME “SUBURBS” NEEDS A REVISION. REVISION . THE TOWNS SUR� ROUNDING URBAN CORES WITH TRAINS AND BUSES DIRECT TO CITY CENTERS AND A WALKABLE AND ACTIVE DOWNT DOWNTOWN OWN ARE NOT SUBURBS GABE BAILER URBAN PLANNER
” MONOCENTRIC MODEL
POLYCENTRIC POL YCENTRIC MODEL MO DEL
1950’s
TODAY
Sources: New York University
MIDDLEBURBS 2018 TREND REPORT
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Parents are spending more time than ever with their kids. But thanks to the ubiquity of screens and techy toys, that time isn’t always the quality time that parents yearn for.
We’re living in an era of hyperindulgence, with the average household containing about 71 toys for kids to play with. Part of this is due to the hyper-connected world we live in causing tensions for both parents and their kids. Children are getting phones at younger ages and spend more time each day using mobile devices (48 minutes on average) than reading or being read to (30 minutes). However, as the issues of indulgence become more apparent, a potential backlash may be coming. Researchers recently found that kids become more creative with fewer toys, causing some parents to take a more minimalist approach. Parents are also trying to balance the tensions of mobile moderation. While 71% CHILDHOOD, REIMAGINED 2018 TREND REPORT
of parents say they worry their children spend too much time in front of screens, they don’t want to be overbearing or have their child feel left out from social groups by going completely screen-free. Schools are taking note. Instead of sending their kids to tech-oriented schools, tech executives like Bill Gates and Steve Jobs favored schools like the Waldorf School in Silicon Valley, which doesn’t let 17
71% 71 %
PARENTS ARE WORRIED THAT THEIR CHILDREN SPEND TOO MUCH TIME WITH THEIR DEVICES
kids use screens until 8th grade. Standards around homework and testing are changing too — some elite schools are reducing the amount of homework and starting later, enduring criticism from opposing viewpoints. And the evolution of STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) is evolving again, with some pushing this categorization to expand into the arts as well (meet STEAM).
IMPLICATIONS 01
Inspire ideas for quality family bonding time among consumers and their families.
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How does your brand offer utility or guidance that addresses modern parenting struggles?
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How does your brand support children’s learning with the current evolution in education?
More distractions, distract ions, more problems? For some parents and kids, less (tech and toys) is more.
CHILDHOOD, REIMAGINED 2018 TREND REPORT
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A NEW MOVEMENT IS WORKING TO INCLUDE ART AND DESIGN INTO THE CONCEPT OF STEM. THE NEW IDEA, STEAM, HIGHLIGHTS THE NECESSITY OF INCORPORATING ART WHEN TURNING SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL PROJECT PROJECTS S INTO USABLE, REAL�WORLD PRODUCTS. HUFFINGTON POST
” Number of Waldorf Schools in the US (kids don’t use screens until 8th grade)
150
160
173
65
1991
2000
2012
2017
Sources: Pew Research, Nielsen, Common Sense Media, Toy Industry Association, New York Times
CHILDHOOD, REIMAGINED 2018 TREND REPORT
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Meet Gen Nice. They‘re the most educated, diverse, and tech-savvy group ever, and just beginni beginning ng to hit adulthood — one that’s looking pretty different than it did for other generations.
The Great Recession and the evolution of technology have helped shape shap e Gen Nice, ages 7-22, 7-22, into a different cohort. Milestones like driving, dating, and drinking were left behind with older generations. Instead, Gen Nice’s online activities define them, from what apps they use to what YouTube channels they subscribe to. Coming of age in a time with a huge emphasis on technology comes with growing pains. New services like tbh, House Party, Part y, and Musical. ly create more opportunities for Gen Nice to stay connected to each other and the world at large. However, from juggling multiple Instagram accounts (Finstas) to keeping up on their Snapstreaks, it’s become more difficult for them GEN NICE: COMING OF AGE 2018 TREND REPORT
to manage their online identities. With the majority of interaction happening online, there’s also a feeling of isolation when that interaction shifts into the real world. These tech troubles — along with high academic and economic pressures from parents and schools — have stressed out Gen Nice young adults, who are now exhibiting higher rates of anxiety and depression than Millennials before them. 21
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“I JUST KNOW OF ALL OF THESE PEOPLE BECAUSE OF SOCIAL MEDIA, BUT I DON’T ACTUALLY KNOW THEM. I COULD NEVER GO UP TO THEM AND BE LIKE, ‘HEY, I SAW YOU ON INSTAGRAM FOR TWO YEARS.’” GEN NICE FEMALE
” But it’s not all doom and gloom. Gen Nice is one of the most empathetic generations, breaking down stigmas around race, gender, and mental health. And they’re optimistic about their place in the world and the future they’ll help shape. And while traditional celebrities still resonate, they have an everrefreshing set of role models to look up to, born out of YouTube, Snapchat, and Instagram. These influencers connect with them on a deeper level, thanks to their approachable personas and engaging content.
IMPLICATIONS 01
Think about how your product or communication approach will change for the next generation.
02
Ensure that you understand the nuances of these potential new customers.
03
How can your brand help the next generation navigate their complex entrance into adulthood?
Brands, meet the new changemakers.
GEN NICE: COMING OF AGE 2018 TREND REPORT
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63% 63 % GEN Z WOULD PREFER TO SEE A SOCIAL MEDIA INFLUENCER IN ADVERTISEMENTS �ONLY 37% PREFER TRADITIONAL CELEBRITIES�
High School Seniors Who’ve Done the Following (%) 1976
87
2016
85 72
72 56
68 57 33
39
11 Has driver’s license
Ever dated
Worked for pay
Drank alcohol
Smoked cigarettes
(last 30 days)
(last 30 days)
Sources: Association for University and College Counseling Center Directors, University of Michigan, MediaKix
GEN NICE: COMING OF AGE 2018 TREND REPORT
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Look at any category from retail to food to travel to media, and you’ll see two extremes in action, with efficiency at one end of the spectrum and immersion at the other.
Laziness is deeply Laziness deepl y ingrained in our DNA. And that’s good for brands — 51% of consumers want a trusted brand to help simplify their lives (up from 31% in 2012). So it’s no surprise that these consumers want a streamlined shopping experience. For example, Amazon Go, a beta retail experience, removes the friction of checking out by tracking shoppers through the store using sensor tracking and deep learning. Other retailers are investing in line-skipping convenience, with Walmart’s Scan & Go app and the CVS and Curbside partnership among the many convenient options available to consumers. It’s not just retail that’s focused on streamlining. Starbucks is increasing efficiency in its express EXTREME EXCHANGES 2018 TREND REPORT
stores, which feature only items that can be made quickly and have employees taking orders before consumers even get to the register. But it’s not just about what’s faster and easier. About 65% of consumers say “it’s extremely important to have stimulating experiences” and over one-third say “even when I don’t purchase anything, I enjoy shopping.” In 25
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YOU HAVE TO GIVE PEOPLE A REASON TO COME TO THE STORE OTHER THAN JUST DUPLICATING WHAT WHA T THEY CAN CA N BUY ONLINE. BRIDGET RUSSO SHINOLA CMO
” addition to its express stores, Starbucks also offers a Roastery, a small-batch “coffee theater” that encourages consumers to enjoy a multi-hour visit. The Samsung 837 NYC flagship store doesn’t sell products but operates as a digital playground of art-house installations. There are even Instagram-ready museums like the Museum of Ice Cream, which features colorful areas for picturesnapping.
IMPLICATIONS 01
Workshop what the extremes of your category could look like for new products or services.
02
Identify where your brand has a right to play among consumers.
03
Continue to monitor innovation across relevant categories so you don’t fall behind.
Whether it’s efficiency or immersion that consumers are after, brands are stepping up and giving it to them.
EXTREME EXCHANGES 2018 TREND REPORT
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65% 65 %
Agree: “It’s extremely important to have stimulating experiences experiences””
STREAMLINED
ELABORATE
Data Sources: Mindshare’s Mindreader, Simmons
EXTREME EXCHANGES 2018 TREND REPORT
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As com compani panies es lik like e Amaz Amazon, on, Uber Uber,, and Netflix push the boundaries of speed, service, and innovation, consumer expectations are changing, forcing other brands to kee keep p up.
With great expectations comes great power. In the late 1960s, psychologist Robert Rosenthal introduced the Pygmalion Effect, which suggests that higher expectations lead to an increase in performance, impacting how we think and behave behave.. Consumers today are comparing all brands to a select few disruptors, raising the overall bar. Fifty two percent of consumers say that they “have higher expectations for brands today than they did in the past.” So what can we learn from innovators like Tesla and Airbnb? How to play off key human behavior triggers. The number one consumer expectation for brands today is “to make my life easier.” To do this, brands should look to the U.K. Behavioural Insights GREAT EXP ECTA ECTATIONS TIONS 2018 TREND REPORT
Team’s EAST Model, consisting of four pillars: make it easy, make it attractive, attracti ve, make make it social, and make it timely. Brands like Amazon have done this by implementing same-day deliveries, reducing the wait time consumers expect for receiving their products. HotelFlex works with hotels to allow travelers to check in and check out at any time they’d like. And Hiatus is an app 29
Attractive
Ease
Largest touchscreen Slick design (e.g. removal of grill) Key shaped like car
Direct to customer selling Autopilot Easy entry/ entr y/exit exit Automatic garage warning Over the air updates Streaming services Advance parking sensors
Social
Timely
Tesla charger stations Easter eggs Dealerships in Malls Elon Musk – ‘social CEO’
Speed of response on social Culturally relevant press releases
that negotiates bills and payments on the consumer’s behalf to lower prices. Media is also undergoing a change in response to consumers’ expectations — HBO’s new interactive show Mosaic lets viewers watch from different characters’ perspectives and choose the sequence in which the story unfolds. And FOX has adopted six-second ads onto their network, minimizing how long consumers expect commercia commercials ls to last. Great expectations, exceeded.
GREAT EXP ECTA ECTATIONS TIONS 2018 TREND REPORT
met
IMPLICATIONS 01
Use data and research to identify and meet changing expectations of category consumers.
02
Use the EAST Model to workshop new ways to enhance your marketing or communication strategy.
03
Explore adding layers to content (e.g. shopability) to ensure it’s delivering against expectations.
and
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52% AGREE: “I HAVE HIGHER
EXPECTATIONS FOR BRANDS NOW THAN I DID IN THE PAST” �61% OF MILLENNIALS�
87%
Consumers say they measure all brands against a select few companies
Sources: Mindshare’s Pool, Behavioural Insights Team (a separate company in the UK), Wunderman
GREAT EXP ECTA ECTATIONS TIONS 2018 TREND REPORT
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For the past few years, companies have been trading long-term success for shortterm gains. However, we’re now in the midst of a backlash as longevity is making a comeback.
The average number of very large business effects (e.g. (e.g. penetration, market share) per ad campaign has dropped by nearly 20% from 2012 to 2016, thanks to the percent of short-term campaigns increasing from 7% in 2006 to 26% in 2016. It’s understandable why brands would favor short-termism. Not only is it easier to observe and measure, but CMOs and brand managers are increasingly pressured by quarterly sales goals. But immediate results aren’t always a good thing. This shortterm outlook inhibits innovation and makes the economy less competitive, impacting the stock market. This means that more companies are staying private, with the number of U.S. publicly traded companies dropping by almost RETURN TO THE LONG TERM 2018 TREND REPORT
50% since the 1990s. Startups are also taking longer to IPO, with the median amount of time increasing from 3.1 years in 2000 to 8.2 years in 2017. As the issues with short-termism become more apparent, some are shifting to more long-term strategies. For example, the LongTerm Stock Exchange is a new model backed by Silicon Valley venture capitalists that operates 33
THERE IS CURRENTLY TOO MUCH FOCUS ON THE SHORT�TERM EASIER TO MEASURE AND OBSERVE CLIENTS OFTEN PRESSURED BY QUARTERLY SALES GOALS
using “tenure voting,” in which shareholders who have their stocks for a longer period of time get more votes. The power of long-term thinking has its perks. Just look at the Houston Astros, who went from one of the Major League Baseball’s worst teams to World Series Champions in five years by leveraging young young prospects. prospect s. Proof that if companies are willing to take a step back and focus on the greater potential, the payoff will greatly exceed the sacrifices.
RETURN TO THE LONG TERM 2018 TREND REPORT
IMPLICATIONS 01
Ensure that you’re setting the right KPIs for long-term growth (e.g. unaided awareness, penetration).
02
Balance brand building and sales activation in your creative and media strategy.
03
Think long-term; don’t always be quick to change course if impact is not immediate.
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SILICON VALLEY’S HIGH� HIGH�TECH TECH DENIZENS COMPLAIN THE PUBLIC STOCK MARKETS ARE MARRED BY A NARROW FOCUS ON SHORT� TERM EARNINGS AND PROFITS. NOW THEY ARE ACTUALLY DOING SOMETHING ABOUT IT, BY LAUNCHING A NEW FRAMEWORK FOR CORPORA CORPOR ATE GOVERNANCE, INVESTING AND TRADING CALLED THE LONG�TERM STOCK EXCHANGE. WALL STREET JOURNAL
” Median time for IPO exit
7.4 years
8.2 years
3.1 years
2000
2013
2017
Sources: Wall Street Journal, National Venture Capitalist Association, IPA
RETURN TO THE LONG TERM 2018 TREND REPORT
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Growing in population p opulation size, buying power power,, and cultural influence, Asian-American consumers are becoming an increasingly valuable multicultural segment for brands to consider.
Asian Americans make up 6% of the U.S. population, but they’re the fastest-growing multicultural segment, expected to balloon to 14% within the next five decades. This often-overlooked group in America represents a huge untapped market waiting to be recognized, with the highest incomes and education levels, the fastest-growing home-ownership records with a top 10 Billboards in the U.S., and some of the debut and a spot on Time’s list of highest spending in categories c ategories like the Top 25 Internet Influencers. makeup,, apparel, and restaurants. makeup It can be seen in our content too, But those aren’t the only places as Asian authors, playwrights, where Asian Americans are having directors, and actors bring their an impact. From Hollywood to own unique values, stories, and Washington, 2017 was a watershed perspectives into the mainstream. year for this group. For example, Companies like Netflix have Congress added 18 members of recognized this and are buying Asian descent (the most ever). And and creating Asian content like K-Pop group BTS broke hearts and Okja and Bardo. Their impact on RISE OF THE ASIAN ECONOMY 2018 TREND REPORT
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FOR A LONG TIME, GLOBALIZATION HAS EFFECTIVELY MEANT ‘AMERICANIZATION.’ THE NEW GLOBALIZATION IS NOT AS SUCH AMERICANIZA AMERICAN IZATION TION BUT IS SOMETHING THAT COULD BE CALLED ‘GLOBAL�AS�ASIAN. FORBES
” other brands is wide-reaching, with companies Nike and Sephora jumping to embrace embrace the culture. culture. Of course, there are still issues that need to be addressed. Brands need to understand that Asian Americans represent a broad and diverse group of many different cultures with vastly different values and needs. And they need to be cognizant cogniz ant of the problems they face — like misrepresentation in media, immigration, and discrimination — to better serve them.
RISE OF THE ASIAN ECONOMY 2018 TREND REPORT
IMPLICATIONS 01
Understand Asian-American consumers’ relevance to your category and brand and, when appropriate, include them in your multicultural strategy.
02
Understand their motivations and nuance your brand communications accordingly.
03
Make sure communications reflect an accurate and authentic representation of this audience.
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WHAT BOTHERED ME ABOUT APU IS HOW HE STOOD IN FOR MY PARENTS, REPLACING THEIR REAL REA L STORIES AND REAL STRUGGLES AND THEIR REALLY COMPLICATED LIVES WITH AN ACCENT HARI KONDABOLU THE PROBLEM WITH APU
” Expenditures by Race/Ethnicity White
AA
Hispanic
A si a n
$325 $275 $270
$256
$208
$206
$180 $163
$156
$167
$133
$130
$105 $74 $74
Family Restaurants
Women’s Apparel
Women’s Accessories
$88
Skincare
$70
$79
$81
$96
Makeup
Sources: U.S. Census, Simmons, Pew Research
RISE OF THE ASIAN ECONOMY 2018 TREND REPORT
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As new techno technology logy dev develops elops at rapid rates, it’s easy to be fascinated by the latest devices. But brands must embrace tech trends carefully — or risk losing big.
Look no further than Second Life for a cautionary tale. In the early 2000s, the virtual world — which lets users create avatars to interact, shop, and consume media — was predicted to be the future of the internet and marketing. It was supposed to revolutionize life as we knew it. But it failed. Fast forward to 2012, and Google Glass was expected to be our new way of seeing the world, displaying digital information through wearable headsets. It also failed. So did Snap Inc.’s near-identical replica, Spectacles. Our brains are often hijacked by novelty.. Whether it fails or succeeds, novelty our “cult of the new” mentality keeps us distracted by the latest thing. Just look at breakout ice SHINY NEW OBJECTS 2018 TREND REPORT
cream brand Halo Top, which had over 2,500% increase in sales in 2016. That deserves recognition, but we ignore the fact that 85% of CPG products fail. Blame “Survivorship Bias,” a tendency to focus on success stories while forgetting failures. This bias even happens with successful brands like Amazon, Google, and Apple — all having introduced failed products (RIP Google Plane and Google Wave) between their few 41
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MOST OF US ARE REGULARL REGU LARLY Y FOOLED BY THE SURVIVOR BIAS. CONSIDER THE PLETHORA OF BUSINESS BOOKS READILY READILY AVAILA AILABLE BLE IN AIRPORT A IRPORT BOOKSTALLS THAT FEATURE THE MOST SUCCESSFUL COMP COMPANIES ANIES SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN
” successful launches. However, as we enter a period of fad fatigue, brands are starting to become more cautious. Some brands fell into a Millennial refresh trap — like Applebee’s, which changed their menu and model to attract younger customers. It failed, so they went back to their original model. Many are also taking a cautious approach to the digital ecosystem, with major spenders like P&G, Mars, and Taco Bell pulling money out of digital and reinvesting in television for longevity and brand safety concerns.
IMPLICATIONS 01
Always check Shiny New Objects against scale and marketing truths.
02
First-mover advantage isn’t always an advantage; make strategic decisions about relevance to your brand.
03
Lean on agency partners (who have a broader view) to help navigate the fast-moving tech space.
What’s old is new — and profitable — again.
SHINY NEW OBJECTS 2018 TREND REPORT
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IPL
ant.pre-SMA
“
“THE PREFRONTAL PREFRONTAL CORTEX HAS A NOVELTY BIAS, MEANING THAT ITS ATTENTION CAN BE EASILY HIJACKED BY BY SOMETHING NEW � THE PROVERBIAL SHINY OBJECTS WE USE TO ENTICE INFANTS, PUPPIES, AND KITTENS. KITTENS.”” DANIEL J LEVITIN MCGILL UNIVERSITY
”
MFG/IOFC
Google Search Index RSS, Dec. 2005 UGC, Feb. 2008
Virtual World, Jun. 2010 Gamification, Apr. 2014 Wearables, Sep. 2014
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 4 6 4 6 8 2 0 8 2 4 6 8 0 2 2 4 6 8 0 0 4 6 8 2 4 6 8 2 0 2 2 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 2 2 8 2 0 2 2 4 6 8 0 0 2 2 2 4 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 - - 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Sources: Halo Top, Nielsen, Google Trends
SHINY NEW OBJECTS 2018 TREND REPORT
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SUMMARY Technology plays a part, but at the end of the day it’s human behavior that shapes marketing and media strategies. Current trends are giving you plenty of material to work with. Contact us for the latest trends as they rise in the cultural zeitgeist.
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