YOUR ESSENTIAL HORSE RACING SYSTEM HANDBOOK 10 Horse Racing Systems Covering the Flat and AW Racing in the UK and Ireland
By Cody Del Fabbro
By Cody Del Fabbro
Introduction I’m Cody Del Fabbro, and I love my horse racing. That’s me in a sentence. I love it. I love the thrill of placing a bet in the hope that it wins. I love standing by the winning post, waiting for my horse to cross the finish line. With my 7 years of betting experience (OK, not as much as some) plus my mathematical know-how, over the years I have generated a collection of betting systems, 10 of which are in this guide for you today. Each system is profitable. This is based on over 5 years of results. With each system, I have included a strike rate and an overall ROI to give you an idea of what you can expect from the system. I haven’t included ROI figures for the lay systems included because the ROI is quite low on laying because it is based on liability which is, of course, much higher than backing. My systems focus on the All-Weather racing and the Flat racing -- Just so you know. Why? Because the jumps are WAY too unpredictable. More horses fall. More jockeys are dismounted. More crashed. More runners. Long races. I hate it! There’s so much to go wrong and when I can just use the All-Weather racing there’s no point in risking money on the jumps when I’m not comfortable betting on the jumps. So here we go, onwards and upwards, let’s begin your journey of discovery into my world of TEN horse racing systems. Enjoy it!
Disclaimer: Cody Del Fabbro, and related content creators and website administrators cannot guarantee earnings of any sort from the systems enclosed within this guide book. Horse Races cannot be accurately predicted 100% of the time and results cannot be guaranteed by anyone. The systems in this guide book are to aid you in your betting and are not a guaranteed way of earning money. Cody Del Fabbro does not take any responsibility for any losses incurred through the use of all or part of the system included within this guide book. GambleAware.co.uk | 18+ | Please Gamble Responsibly
By Cody Del Fabbro
BACKING SYSTEMS
6 Backing Systems Covering the Flat and AW Racing in the UK and Ireland
By Cody Del Fabbro
By Cody Del Fabbro
1 - Jockey and Trainer Performance System Strike Rate on the Win Market: 23.4% Strike Rate on the Place Market: 42.3% ROI on the Win Market: 18.4% ROI on the EW Market: 5.2% This system is for the flat turf racing only! 1. The first stage is to find a qualifying race. The race will of course need to be a flat turf race only. You then need to look at races that are at least 1m4f in length. This is including 1m4f. 2. We also want to limit the number of runners in the race. Obviously, with less runners, there’s less competition for our selection. Therefore, there must be LESS THAN 12 runners in the race. So 11 or less runners in the race. 3. Now we need to look at the race and whittle it down to a little more. We don’t want any horses that are Maiden or are old. If the horse is 7 years old or 8 years old then ignore it. The best way to find this data is to put into Google “HORSE NAME Sky Bet.” This will bring up it’s Sky Bet profile where you can get all of this information. 4. You now need to look at the jockey and trainer performances for the course. Go to Paddy Power’s Racing Form page here: http://racingform.paddypower.com/informer then use the navigation on the left. You only want to consider trainer and jockeys whom both have a strike rate of at least 15% at the particular course you are interested in. It’s pretty easy to find this data when you’re over there. 5. Any horse/jockey/trainer combination matching the above will become a selection for you to back. Done! You’ll find that your average winning odds using this system are between 4/1 and 5/1. The longest winning streak experienced was: 4 The longest losing streak experience was: 20
By Cody Del Fabbro
2 - Jockey and Trainer Partnership System Strike Rate on the Win Market: 15.5% Strike Rate on the Place Market: 40.7% ROI on the Win Market: 8.6% ROI on the EW Market: 4.8% This system is for the flat turf racing only! 1. Firstly, you need to look for Handicap races that have LESS THAN 12 runners which are UP TO 1m4f in length. 2. You now need to see which horses qualify. You need to look at horses that are not Maiden, have run in the last 28 days and in their last run, did NOT come first. This can be found again using the Sky Bet Google search term. 3. You now need to look at the Jockey/Trainer combination statistics (found here: http:// www1.skysports.com/racing/statistics/flat-jockey-trainer/season) and are looking for the jockey/trainer combinations of any horses that match the criteria so far. The Jockey/trainer combinations must have: Between 4 and 19 wins A win strike rate of 15% or more A place strike rate of 30% or more 4. Once you’ve found one, it’s a case of backing them. I’d advise backing them to win as opposed to place because the return is much higher although you would of course have a great strike rate by covering both markets. You’ll find that your average winning odds using this system are between 6/1 and 7/1. The longest winning streak experienced was: 4 The longest losing streak experience was: 32
By Cody Del Fabbro
3 - A Simple AW System Strike Rate on the Win Market: 26.6% Strike Rate on the Place Market: 53.3% ROI on the Win Market: 6.0% ROI on the EW Market: 3.0% This system is for the AW racing only! 1. The first thing to do before you do ANYTHING else is to only look at the AW racing. There’s not AW racing every day. Here’s a list of AW courses for this and the other AW systems in this guide: http://www.allaboutbetting.co.uk/horseracing/allweathercourses.html 2. Let’s now limit the race. We want to only consider races with less than 11 runners (so 10 or less). You also want to only consider those races SHORTER THAN 1m4f. 3. Now let’s look at the horse. It must NOT be a Mare (this is the gender and can be found on Sky Bet). It must have won in the last 14 days but that doesn’t have to be the most recent result. 4. A final little selection filter is that the jockey must be male. Again, a quick Google of their name can sort this out for you. 5. You have a bet if the odds of the selection are between 2.00 and 10.00 on Betfair. Back the selection either to win or EW. Simple! You’ll find that your average winning odds using this system are between 3/1 and 4/1. The longest winning streak experienced was: 4 The longest losing streak experience was: 23
By Cody Del Fabbro
4 - Good Recent Performance on the AW Backing System Strike Rate on the Win Market: 20.7% Strike Rate on the Place Market: 46.8% ROI on the Win Market: 5.1% ROI on the EW Market: 1.8% This system is for the AW racing only! 1. Obviously this is an AW system so limit it to the AW courses. You also need to only consider those races fo 5f/6f/7f in length. 2. Look at the horses -- you only want to look at horses whose gender is Gelding. 3. You then need to look at the form of all the horses in the race that are a Gelding (this can easily be done from within Betfair) and then you need to see if they placed in the last 3 races. They must have done so between 2 and 3 times. 4. Finally, the horse must have ran in the last 14 days (can be found from within SkyBet without an account). 5. You then back each horse. I would limit this system to the back market only. You’ll find that your average winning odds using this system are between 4/1 and 5/1. The longest winning streak experienced was: 4 The longest losing streak experience was: 37
By Cody Del Fabbro
5 - Under Rated Horses to Back on the Flats System Strike Rate on the Win Market: 15.4% Strike Rate on the Place Market: 38.5% ROI on the Win Market: 5.8% ROI on the EW Market: 1.8% This system is for the flat turf racing only! 1. So first, you need to look at races of 1m to 1m4f and they must NOT be handicap race. 2. There must also be LESS THAN 11 runners in the race. 3. Next, you want to only consider those horses with BSP odds of between 2.00 and 50.00. 4. You then need to look of the position of the horse in their last race. Ignore all those horses that came first in their race. 5. The horse must also have run OVER 7 days ago for it be a consideration. 6. You then need to use the Google + SkyBet technique to look for data on the horse. The horse must have AT LEAST 1 career win. 7. Select found! You need to back this horse to win. Again, in this system I would limit it to the win market only. You’ll find that your average winning odds using this system are between 6/1 and 7/1. The longest winning streak experienced was: 2 The longest losing streak experience was: 27
By Cody Del Fabbro
6 - Good Performance Horses on the AW Racing System Strike Rate on the Win Market: 26.5% Strike Rate on the Place Market: 52.9% ROI on the Win Market: 9.0% ROI on the EW Market: 4.1% This system is for the AW racing only! 1. Firstly, only look at those AW races that are at least 1m4f in length. 2. There must also be less than 11 runners. 3. Now look at the last position of all the horses. You need to look at those horses that came FIRST ONLY in their last race. 4. The horse MUST NOT be a ‘horse’ or ‘mare’ in gender terms. 5. The final check is the jockey. You have a back bet if the jockey is male. 6. With these selections, it could be profitable to back on both win and place markets. You’ll find that your average winning odds using this system are between 3/1 and 4/1. The longest winning streak experienced was: 6 The longest losing streak experience was: 16
By Cody Del Fabbro
LAYING SYSTEMS
4 Laying Systems Covering the Flat and AW Racing in the UK and Ireland
By Cody Del Fabbro
By Cody Del Fabbro
7 - Laying Good Performers on the AW System Strike Rate on the Win Market: 88.0% Strike Rate on the Place Market: 64.3% This system is for the AW racing only! 1. Again, you only want to look at the AW racing -- So make sure you limit it to this form of racing. 2. Only look at races that are 5f/6f/7f in length. 3. There must also be more than 10 runners in the race. Of course, with more runners, we increase the chance of the horse losing as there is more competition. 4. Now you need to look at horses that finished first in their last race and this must have happened within the last 7 days. 5. You now lay this selection. Of course, if you come up with more selection then you can lay them both. You’ll find that your average winning odds using this system are around 9/1. The longest winning streak experienced was: 66 The longest losing streak experience was: 3
By Cody Del Fabbro
8 - Laying Good Performers on the Flats System Strike Rate on the Win Market: 83.3% Strike Rate on the Place Market: 54.2% This system is for the flat turf racing only! 1. This time, we are concentrating on the flat turf racing although this system is very similar to the previous system. 2. You only want to consider Handicap races that are 5f/6f/7f in length again. 3. You now need to look at horses that won their last race and this must have happened within the past 7 days. 4. The final filter is that the horse must be younger than 4 years (use Sky Bet and Google again). 5. If this is the case, then lay the horse if the odds are between 1.99 and 10.00. You’ll find that your average winning odds using this system are around 6/1. The longest winning streak experienced was: 32 The longest losing streak experience was: 4
By Cody Del Fabbro
9 - Laying Single Run Jockeys on the Flats System Strike Rate on the Win Market: 81.7% Strike Rate on the Place Market: 48.8% This system is for the flat turf racing only! 1. Once you have found yourself at the flat racing, you need to look at races with at least 10 runners. And the course must NOT be tight in terms of speed (a quick Google for the course name and speed will give you this information). 2. Now you need to get a list of the jockeys that are just riding the once for the day’s racing. Go here: http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/profiles/. Then search for the jockey. And then click future entries. This will show you how many times they are running on a particular day. 3. Look at the result of the horse last time out. It must have come in the top 3. 4. Finally, the selection must be in the top 4 of the betting (this is to limit the odds also). Now lay the selection. You’ll find that your average winning odds using this system are around 5/1. The longest winning streak experienced was: 26 The longest losing streak experience was: 4
By Cody Del Fabbro
10 - Poor Recent Performance on the AW Laying System Strike Rate on the Win Market: 81.2% Strike Rate on the Place Market: 47.9% This system is for the AW racing only! 1. First of all, you need to look at NON-Handicap races that are 5f/6f/7f in length. 2. The next thing to consider, are those horses with BSP odds of between 2.00 and 10.00. Nothing under as the probability of winning jumps right up and nothing over as the liability gets out of control. 3. Once you have a few horses, you need to look at their last three races. They must NOT have placed in the last three races. 4. The horse must also have NOT run in the past 7 days. Use SkyBet to find this information out. 5. You may find yourself with a couple of selections in one race - Feel free to lay them both. You’ll find that your average winning odds using this system are around 5/1. The longest winning streak experienced was: 28 The longest losing streak experience was: 4
All facts and figures in this guide are based on past results and cannot be guaranteed for future performances. They are based on results from Jan 2008 - Oct 2013.
By Cody Del Fabbro
