Brexit Brexit and its effects on the EU EU „What subsequent plan should be adopted by the European Parliament in order to maintain a mutually-beneficial relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom, in case the “re!it" mo#ement will be #oted on by the ritish population in the $%&' referendum(" 1.1.What is Brexit? Brexit is an abbreviation abbreviation of „British exit” that mirrors mirrors the term Grexit, refers to the possibility of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union. Union .
A number of British political parties support a referendum on EU membership, the most prominent are the Conservative Party , which has promised a !"# in-out referendum, if it wins the $ay !"% &eneral Election, Election, and the UK Independence Party UKIP! , which was founded in "" (under a different name) to oppose Britain's membership in the EU. A sur*e in the U+-'s popularity in !" probably prompted the /onservatives to announce support for a referendum in that year. 1.".Why Brexit?
Even at the best of times Britain has always been a semi0detached member of the EU. 1he first post0war 2abour *overnments turned down the opportunity to participate in the ne*otiations that led to the birth of the forerunner of the EU in the early "%!s. 3ince then Britain has often been more sceptical of the European pro4ect than committed to it5 the country has been called 6the aw7ward partner”. 1hey eventual eventually ly 4oined 4oined the Europe European an /ommun /ommunitie itiess in "# "# and everyt everythin hin* * seemed seemed to be wor7in wor7in* * fine fine for the moment moment.. 1he 1he next next 2abour 2abour &overnme &overnment nt 8uic7ly 8uic7ly held a refern referndum dum on the membership in "#%, so it9s not the first time the U+ wants to leave an „european a*reement between several states”, but they choosed to stay as a part of the European /ommunities, but over the past few decades British *overnments have 7ept their distance as others within Europe pursued :ever closer union:. 1he one thin* that is certain about this referendum is that it9s unclear how it actually wor7s, *iven that no country has ever voted to leave the EU before. $r /ameron has promised to rene*otiate the terms of Britain9s relationship with the EU before such a vote, to *et a better deal for Britain. f those ne*otiations, ne*otiations, in areas li7e immi*ration, immi*ration, proceed well well then then his *overn *overnmen mentt would would presum presumably ably recommen recommend d that that people people vote to stay in the EU. 1.#.Pros and Cons of Brexit $he main ar%ument pro Brexit is the fact that EU costs too much, has *rown too much and the bussines re*ulations are maybe too strict. Brexit proponents believe that after a yes vote, the U+ will be able to ne*otiate a free trade arran*ement as 3wit;erland currently en4oys.
1he Anti0Brexit side is rellyin* on the list of benefits the EU has brou*ht to the U+ from bussiness advanta*es to the fact that 2ondon is the main main financial centre of Europe. Bussiness specialists say that U+ should choose to remain in the EU to avoid dama*in* the economy. economy.
pro stayin*. n the manufacturin* sector, =%> of business leaders considered it was best to remain within the EU, and similarly in the financial sector =?> believed it best to stay in the EU. Also 1he benefits for Britain of stayin* in the EU are primarily 0 one could ar*ue @ economic the EU is a lar*e mar7et, accountin* for %> of world &-. 1he EU is the bi**est tradin* partner of the U+5 ?%> of U+ exports are to the EU and %!> of imports are from the EU. 1he attractiveness of the U+ as a destination for forei*n direct investment (<) is enhanced by the country9s membership of the EU, and access to its mar7ets. n !" the U+ was a recipient of < to the tune of #bn. nvestment abroad by U+ firms was ",!==bn. Cearly %!> of U+ <, both inward and outward is EU related. 1he U+, bein* a service0based economy, en4oys hu*e potential *ains from membership of the /ommon $ar7et.
1.&.'o( much does the )U cost Britain?$im Con%don sept "*1#!
Cature of costs irect fiscal costs
>of &".%>
/osts of re*ulation
%.>
/osts of resource missalocation
.%>
Dationale +Gross payments to )U institutions. +Cost of emp,oyment financia, dan%erous sustances and procedure re%u,ations.
Relating to CAP(Common Agricultural Policy) and EU Protectionism.
/osts of lost 4obs
!.#%>
+/o ,osses of UK-orn popu,ation due to immi%ration from )U 0tates.
/osts of waste, fraud and corruption
!.#%>
Unforeseen commitments 1otal
!.%> 113
ish discard due to fish 2uotas ureaucratic inefficiencies and corrupt officia,s. 'ea,th and enefit tourism.
1.4.actors that inf,uence the popu,ation re%ardin% Brexit
1he main factors that play a role in chan*i* people minds re*ardin* Brexit are as follow • • •
inancia, 5e%u,ation (sensitive are for Britain) 6on-inancia, 5e%u,ation (prohibit dan*erous substances and processes) $he Common 7%ricu,tura, Po,icy (C7P, considered by the pro brexit side to be a
hu*e waste of money leadin* to an uncompetitive domestic a*ricultural sector dependent on subsidies (monetary assistance granted by the government) to survive)
•
Immi%ration and enefit tourism (probably the main source of doubt, the British
&overnment bein* afraid of potential „invasions” from Eastern Europe and not only, seein* this as a threat to the 4ob security for the ones born there, even thou*h those immi*rants to the U+ from the EU are better educated than U+ nationals with > havin* a de*ree compared to "> of U+ sub4ects.) 1.8.What (ou,d the a,ternatives e if Britain voted in the referendum to ,eave the )U?
1he EU has entered into three main types of a*reements with non0EU countries ". Allowin* membership of the 3in*le $ar7et (EEA) 1his would simply mean that the U+ would still abide by the same Brussels0imposed • re*ulation domesticallu that currently applies and still have acces to the common mar7et. Fowever Britain would not be able to influence ne*otiations on the formulation of re*ulations as it would have lost its s eat at the table. . $embership of the EU9s /ustoms Union 1his is the type of relationship that exists between the EU and 1ur7ey. 1he U+ would • remain outside the /ommon $ar7et, but would retain some of the trade benefits of membership, in particular for the trade in *oods. .
“The Greek debt crisis has made ritain !ar more likely to "ote !or an e#it !rom the Euro$ean Union% because traditional &abour "oters are shocked at the sa"age deal im$osed on Athens'% a leading City commentator has claimed. n a note to in"estors Albert Edards% global strategist at *rench bank +ociete Generale% described ho the le!t in ritish $olitics has become disillusioned ith the Euro$ean $ro,ect !olloing russels- treatment o! Greece. The humiliation o! the Greek le!tist Prime inister Ale#is Tsi$ras by Euro$e had resulted in a /massi"e change/ in ritish $olitics% stated r Edards. 0e said it as the biggest un!oreseen im$act to come out o! the deal beteen euro1one leaders% hich came a little o"er a eek ago a!ter all2night talks beteen Euro$e-s most senior 3gures% including German Chancellor Angela erkel and r. Tsi$ras. r. Edards added4 /! the treatment o! Greece ti$s the balance in an already close re!erendum and the U5 lea"es the EU% then euro1one leaders ill be le!t to re6ect on the ider im$act o! last eekend7s crushing o! Greece. /*or i! e"en a Euro$hile such as % ho belie"es strongly in the unlimited !ree mo"ement o! labour across the EU% reaches the $oint at hich he is likely to "ote
!or a re#it% ould think it is time !or in"estors to $re$are themsel"es !or that momentous outcome.' ut still% all the ad"isors% including arack 8bama% urges ritain to resist re#it and stay in the EU% so you can7t actually call the trend. Conclusion t seems that o$inions regarding re#it are to sided% close in numbers and more im$otant that anything "ery easy to $ass to another one. 9e can ne"er be sure hether the ritish ill be in6uenced by !acts or $romises and neither can you be sure hat ill ha$$en until the Re!erendum (scheduled sometime be!ore :;<=)% but some might see this re#it as a "ery ingenious le"erage to use in the discussions at the EU table% because a!ter all the U5 is a $oer in any 3eld and as much as it ould damage them to lea"e the EU% it sure ill damage the EU as ell. Use!ul links4 htt$4>>.economist.com>blogs>economist2e#$lains>:;;@>economist2 e#$lains2: htt$s4>>.in"esco$er$etual.co.uk>site>i$>$d!>n"esco2re#it2the2$ros2and2 cons.$d! htt$4>>.euracti".com>to$ics>bre#it htt$4>>.e#$ress.co.uk>3nance>city>?:=BB>Greek2crisis2makes2re#it28RE2 likely2due2to2le!t2ing2anger2claims2to$2City2e#$ert htt$4>>.in"esto$edia.com>terms>b>bre#it.as$ htt$4>>.cnbc.com>:;;=>;=>hy2euro$es2city2o!2lo"e2could2gain2!rom2 bre#it.html
