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Welcome to the Presentati on
INTERNTION FINNCI $N% "BREXIT & ITS EFFECT ON UK ITSEF! EU N# I$PCT I$PCT ON %OB ECONO$ N# POSSIBE I$PICTIONS ON BN%#ES'" Mr. Shabbir Ahmad Professor of Finance Department of Finance, University of Dhaka
Presentation by: Group - 2 Major S M Nuruzaman (Retd) -3101 Md! Masud Rana -3101" Mo#iuddin -3100$
INTRODUCTION
If we look at the world scenario from the top what we see today? The atrocities of so called IS (Islamic Sates) Chan!es happened in "ra# $orld d%e to so called "ra# Sprin! $orst possi#le on&!oin! ci'il war in Syria i#ya Ira and *emen N+,+R heard terrorist attacks in co%ntries of +%rope and US" itself and so on"ll these e'ents really worry %s e'en sittin! in a . rd world co%ntry like /an!ladesh- "nd most recent incidents takin! place d%e to the e0ec%ti'e orders si!ned #y newly elected US president 1r- Donald Tr%mp also make %s think a#o%t the f%t%re of the world when I remem#er a part of speech #y 1s2ilary Clinton d%rin! her election campai!n where she said to 1r- Tr%mp 32e wants to make friendship with R%ssia he act%ally doesn4t know that 1r- 5%tin is !oin! to eat %p his l%nch sittin! in 1oscow6 *+S really chan!es are happenin! and chan!es wo%ld contin%e to happen in the world economies #alance of power and politics in the days to come- /%t we ha'e to remem#er
Contents
+%ropean Union /R+7IT Short&term ,isi#le Impacts on U= on!&term Implications on U=
%&&e'ts on %
Conse%ences of /re0it for the !lo#al economy Implications for /an!ladesh +conomy Challen!es
$hat is the +%ropean Union The European Union (EU) is a political and economic %nion of 9> mem#er states that are located primarily in +%rope since ;@A- It has an area of B-.9 1illion km9 and an estimated pop%lation of o'er @;: millions- The +U has de'eloped an internal sin!le market thro%!h a standardied system of laws that apply in all mem#er states- +U policies aim to ens%re the free mo'ement of people !oods ser'ices and capital within the internal market enact le!islation in %stice and home aEairs and maintain common policies on trade a!ric%lt%re Fsheries and re!ional de'elopment- Co'erin! A-.G of the world pop%lation the +U in 9:;< !enerated a nominal !ross domestic prod%ct (HD5) of ;<-BAA trillion US dollars constit%tin! appro0imately 99-9G of !lo#al nominal HD5 and ;<-G when meas%red in terms of p%rchasin! parity
$hat /R+7IT 1eans
•
/R+7IT de&a##re'iates 3/ritain +0its6
The term %sed to descri#e the United =in!dom4s withdrawal of mem#ership from the +%ropean Union (+U) since it oined the +U in ;A.•
BREXIT
RESONS FOR BREXIT FRO$ EU /ritain
wanted reforms in +%ropean %nion-
ink
#etween immi!ration and +U mem#ership-
The
U= ta0 payers money !oes directly into +%ropean %nion-
The
relati'e health of the U= economy-
The +%ropean %nion re!%lation cost U= #%sinesses o'er
<::
million e%ro e'ery week
/ritain4s loss of f%ll a%thority o'er its economic policies and
re!%lations -
BREXIT The
+U referend%m was anno%nced in Je#r%ary 9:;< The +U referend%m was held on 9. 8%ne 9:;< DecisionK 3ea'e6 won #y @9G to B>G The decision of the U= electorate to Lea'e6 the +U reMects #oth economic and non& economic factors This st%dy foc%ses on the economic factors only-
BREXIT The
process of /R+7IT started #y holdin! the de#ate in U= parliament to start the in'ocation of "rticle @: of the is#on Treaty ;;B 15s 'oted a!ainst the #ill of callin! "rticle @: for a second readin! .> 15s 'oted for the #ill to call "rticle @: directly 51 Theresa 1ay already p%#lished the $2IT+ 5"5+R for "rticle @: which is ocial %nder&written process for the same It may take at least 9 years to Fnish the whole process for the U= +U to accomplish /R+7IT-
Short(term )isi*le im+acts on UK P The most immediate impact of /re0it was the de'al%ation of the Hreat /ritain 5o%nd (H/5)H/5 fell #y > percent a!ainst USD on 9B 8%ne 9:;
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P "s a res%lt U= e0ports ha'e !ained competiti'enessP Share marketK The inan'ia* +imes Sto', %'#an.e- FTSE ,-- Index e0perienced a downt%rn immediately after the 'ote #%t reco'ered lately The inan'ia* +imes Sto', %'#an.e- FTSE ./- Index fell as well and is still #elow pre&/re0it 'ote le'el •
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P Demand for !o'ernment #onds in the U= and elsewhere has risen since the referend%m Q as a res%lt yields ha'e fallen
on0 R1n E2ects on UK ,3 Immi0ration "nn%al net mi!ration from +%rope has more than do%#led since 9:;9 reachin! ;>.::: in 1arch 9:;@- Immi!ration from the +%ropean Union is c%rrently #oostin! the workforce #y aro%nd :-@G a year- This has helped s%pport the economy4s a#ility to !row witho%t p%shin! %p wa!e !rowth and inMation keepin! interest rates lower for lon!er.3 Tra4e an4 the man15act1rin0 in41str6 Ocial trade statistics show that the +%ropean Union is the destination for a#o%t half of all /ritish !oods e0ports- The tradin! links are #i!!er if we incl%de the co%ntries that the United =in!dom trades freely with #eca%se they ha'e a free trade a!reement with the +%ropean Union- These a!reements mean that
on0 R1n E2ects on UK7 83 Financial ser)ices an4 the Cit6 Jinancial ser'ices ha'e more to lose immediately after a +%ropean Union e0it than most other sectors of the economy- +'en in the #est case in which passportin! ri!hts were preser'ed the United =in!dom wo%ld still lose inM%ence o'er the sin!le market4s r%les93 Re01lation! inno)ation an4 +ro41cti)it6 /re0it is only likely to ha'e a limited impact on /ritain4s prod%cti'ity- It wo%ld also need to implement the %nion4s re!%lations to contin%e to e0port easily to the sin!le market/3 Forei0n in)estment "ccess to the sin!le market is not the only reason that Frms in'est in /ritain- It is likely /ritain wo%ld
on0 R1n E2ects on UK7 :3 P1*lic sector The /ritish !o'ernment co%ld sa'e a#o%t ;:#n per year on its contri#%tions to the +%ropean Union4s #%d!et if the co%ntry left the #loc- $e e0pect that /re0it wo%ld #eneFt the p%#lic Fnances #%t not to a h%!e de!ree;3 Cons1m+tion an4 the +ro+ert6 mar
E2ects on EU ,3 Tra4e =ithin E1ro+e +U trade matters more for the U= than U= trade for the +U #%t some states with #i! #ilateral s%rpl%ses feel a macro chill from /re0it .3 Forei0n 4irect in)estment /%sinesses Fnd it costly to relocate in'estmentfrom the U= and there is a risk the U= attempts to %nderc%t the +U on standards to attract JDI 83 i*eralisation an4 re01lation The #alance in the +%ropean Co%ncil shifts away from li#eralisation and it #ecomes harder to form a
E2ects on EU7 93 Immi0ration There co%ld #e a weakenin! of competition policy looser colla#oration in ed%cation and research and impacts on p%#lic proc%rement /3 In41strial +olic6 Some co%ntriesare aEected #y the impact on remittances or di'erted mi!ration with the e0tent of political conta!ion a #i! %nknown :3 Financial ser)ices One or two Fnancial centres may #eneFt #%t #%sinesses and ho%seholds s%Eer from the loss of
E2ects on EU7 ;3 Tra4e +olic6 The +Uis a less attracti'e trade partner witho%t the U= in the deal and loses a mem#er state that p%ts its political wei!ht #ehind ne!otiations >3 International in?1ence The+U loses s%#stantial soft and hard power assets #%t may #e a#le to act more coherently e0ternally and in international instit%tions @3 B140et The +U loses a #%d!et disciplinarian and a maor net contri#%tor with the !ap needin! to #e Flled #y hi!her contri#%tions or less spendin! ,-3 Uncertaint6 Uncertaintyis #ad for #%siness in the +U
ConseA1ences o5 Breit 5or the 0lo*al econom6 ;) Hlo#al !rowth was already fra!ile prior to /re0it and last month the $orld /ank down!raded its own estimate for 9:;< for !lo#al !rowth from the consens%s F!%re of .-:G to a radically lower 9-BG9) 1%ch depends on the +U and +%roone o%tlook$e ha'e har#o%red do%#ts a#o%t +%roone s%staina#le !rowth for years.) 5res%ma#ly the oil price will s%Eer (mar!inally in the central scenario and less well in the worst case) from downward press%re as !lo#al HD5 !rowth falters-
Cont7 B) Interest rates will remain lower for lon!er@) In the r%sh to safety yields on most #onds of de'eloped economies ha'e collapsed to record lows in recent months and !i'en increased !lo#al risk will likely remain 'ery low<) J7 ratesK the po%nd will #e weaker than #efore and the +%ro o%!ht to weaken 'ers%s the dollar-
Im+lications 5or Ban0la4esh Econom6 The implications for /an!ladesh +conomy will #e analysed with respect to the followin! dimensionsK Trade Jorei!n
is the +U the #est market for /an!ladesh? D%ty&free market access for all prod%cts %nder Heneralised 5reference System (HS5)1ore recent #eneFtK D%ty&free %ota&free market "ccess for all& prod%cts&e0cept&arms to the +U market %nder the +'erythin!&#%t& "rms Initiati'e (+U&+/")One&sta!e R%les of Ori!in /an!ladesh r%ns the risk of losin! these #eneFts in the U= market +0port !rowth potential of /an!ladesh may !et %ndermined to a lar!e e0tent d%e to s%#d%ed demand in the concerned markets $eaker c%rrencies in the U= and the +U ones imply red%ced #%yin! power and th%s lower prospects of e0ports +0porters4 earnin!s will lose 'al%e in c%rrency •
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Im+lications 5or Ban0la4esh Econom6 Conti33
Jorei!n Direct In'estment The %ncertainty and 'olatility in U= market is likely to ha'e ad'erse impact on its in'estment #o%nd to /an!ladesh economy Remittance De'al%ation of H/5 will ha'e immediate impact on /an!ladesh4s remittance 1i!rant workers and non&resident /an!ladeshis may postpone sendin! remittance to /an!ladesh %ntil H/5 re'i'es Jorei!n "id The Mow of !rants from #oth the U= and the +U is likely to #e aEected #ased on their respecti'e economic states Ocial De'elopment "ssistance (OD")
Concl1sion No#ody e0actly knows what will #e the impact of /re0it on the world economy incl%din! /an!ladesh- 2owe'er the impact will #e lesser than anticipated& if the U= contin%es to allow d%ty&free market access e'en after its e0it from +U then /an!ladesh wo%ld not ha'e dic%lties in e0port- In that case U= wo%ld contin%e to !row #eca%se of a lar!e n%m#er of NR/ there- The !o'ernment may ha'e to make necessary ad%stments in the proposed #%d!et and keep the e0port sector 'i#rant #y maintainin! the ta0 at so%rce on R1H e0port- /an!ladesh needs to proceed caref%lly #y incl%si'ely analyin! post&/re0it !lo#al economic chan!es #y formin! a national committee in'ol'in! representati'es of all walks of rele'ant trade #odies and re!%lators so as to react eEecti'e ways- The !o'ernment o%!ht to start lo##yin! and need to rene!otiate with U= to retain the
