EUROPE Yugoseparatism FFOM OTJR SPCOAL@FRESPOilO€NT
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V
nLLYugoslavia
V ovenhrow
IN YI.,GOSTAVIA
be the nexr
counrryro
communisml Wrong ques.
tion. Bcmer to ask whaher Yugoslavia will become the first European counrry since 19'15 to fall to pieces: the race with the Sa viet Union is on" Secesion from Yugoslavia,
. not communism's furure, was the main issue in last Sunday's election of a new parliament
and president in Slovcnia, thc federarion's most liberal republic More than 8096 of the cligible voters turned out for Slovenia's first
multi-party elecion since 1938. For some time now most people in Slorrcnia have assumed that communism there was moribund" The republic's ovm C-ommw nists, under ltlr Milan Kucan, their imprcs. rive presidential candidate, harre hcn pcr. forming the last ritei and are now socid democrats in all but name. Thelive issuelast Sunday was whether Slovenia should in some way stay part of l'ugosiavia or pacl is bags and leave. Demos-an opposirion alliance of Liberal Democrao, Ctuistian &nv
ocrats, Social Democratr, the Peasant party
and others
Demos's simpler message, that Slove nia's economic surviral depended on how quickly it cut itself free from the Yugoslav disaster, proved more efecdve" Provisional results suggested that Demos has won 55% of the votes for Slovenia's new parliamenr, against thc C,ommunisa' l?% or so. The Liberal parry (as the former Socialist Youth movemenr that publishes the celebrated antirstablishm ent Mla/,hra magazine now calls itself) came third with around 16%. Still, the voters showed their aoorecia, rion of lt'{r Kucan by gving him 44% of the votes in the presidential contest. His closot rival, lr/r lozi Pucnik, the Demos candidate and leader of the Social &mocraric oarw. got26%.lrdr Kucan should win the runoti ql Apri! 22nd" The bctting in Liubljana, Slovenia's capital, is on lrdr kucan-as presi. dent with a nomommunirt prime minister. This may fairly represent scntiment in thc republic. The more reflecdve Slovenes readily admit that Slovenia, with B% of thc Yugoslav population, cannot easily just !o THE ECOi{oMFTAPR|L 14 1000
itr own way. They also acccpt that it rvould be prudent to work in cooperation with their much larrger neighbour, Croatia. The Cioa's, whc go tc the polls on April 22nd, retum the complimenn they too are ketn on co,operation"
In Croatia, as in Slovcnig sccessio;ist scntiment is strong Accor'ding to onc Za greb writer, "The Ctoac want lihradon from the Great Serbian hegemony, under which thcy lived in both Yugoslavias-thc one after l9l8 and again after 1945." Thc fgeling is reflected in the popularriry of the Croarian Democratic Union, a rightof.cerr ne narionalist parry ld by General Franjo Tudjman, a military historian who spent Eome years in prison after Tito's crackdown in Croatia in l97l-72. lart Sun&y in Za. greb, Croatia'c capiral" Itdr Tudjman dror a crowd of more than 100,000 on a wet, cold day at a rally lasring five
houn
Croatia's reformed Communists, laclc. ing a leader of Mr Kucants stirnrre, are re signed to defeat. Ir,t'Tudjman'g main rival is the recently formed Coalidon of Narional
Agreement.
lt
includes Liberals, Social Democrar, Christian Democras and a right of-cenne group formerly allied to Mr Tudjman but put of by his authorirarian
on his life last month by a Croatian Serb. And lt[r Tudjman'r party -har moncT-
loorer stlll and loos€r Movement towards an qven looscr Yugoslat via seems unstoppabli. Certainly the Yugo.
itJc.
slav Communist party cannot stop spite the elforts of lr,{r Slobodan Miloscvic" the populist Communistwho runs Scrbia-
bcause the panYugoslav parry in c!ftct no longer exists. A parry congrcs brokc up in
Clusten of ordinary folk mill around MrTudjman'r headquanen in ahgreb pre
disanay back in J**ry. On March 30th the Central Commimee was supposcd to mcet in Belgradc. But thc Croatc and the Slovenes did not ntm up, becausc thel werc in Ljubljana attending a conference of par, ries from the Alpcn Adria regional group (which also includes parts of ltab, Aun4 Germany and Hungary). fhs l6gnian mcm-
fab, waiting to run errands or just to sce the leader. He has bcen helped by ravage anads on him in the Bclerade prers and an uruuc.
ben did nrrn up, but left again immodiatcln ar did most of thc Maccdonians. lrdr Milosevic war left only with hir own Scrtx,
leadership. The coalidon has rcme re rpected leaderr, but it cannot match thc uniontg mass appcal
EUROPE thc Montencgrins and comrades from the provinces of Korcvo and Vojvodina, which Serbia now connols. His protestations that lhg pary will continue rcgardless ring fairly hollow.
Th. p".ry men from the Yugoslav army, however, were at thc Cenmal Comminee meeting in force. They supponed lvtr Milosevic's suggesrion that a disciplined all. Yugoslav party should bc created, which er" erysingte memhr of the old parry should be invited to join. The army has made clear ia preferencc for centralised, party
a
via still fear a pro
hthuania and the nofthem Yugoslav re publics. The economic boycott Uthuanians fear is not a weapon Serbia could sensibly uss it would hun Srbia more than Slove nia and Croatia That was the lesson of l"{r Milosevic's two attempts to punish Slovenia by boycotting ia goods. And, though some pcoplc in the Vest are tempted to bc indulgcnt towards strongarm uctics by l,lr Cor. bachcv in thc Baltic region, there is no Yrr gioslav Gorbacher'. The \[cst would have no sympathy for any $rb use of forcc. In io dgperate economic straic,
tfiigovemm,entinBcfundc hasio bcar such consider. atioru inmind. So thc slow unknotting of Yugoslavia will conrinua Unless, that ir, thc zcaloe
of cither sid+thc
indc. pendencerceken in Slorre nia and Croatia or the cerr
ralisc in Belgrad+-prxh
Yugoslavia to swift disint+ gratior! or to civil war.
a
