NOBLE PROTECTIVE SERVICES CORPORATION TRAINING DIVISION EXECUTIVE PROTECTION THREAT ASSESSMENT
Copyright 2006-2007 All rights Reserved Noble Protective Services Corporation
“ IT IT IS MY JOB TO BE PRESIDENT OF FRANCE, IT IS YOUR JOB TO MAKE IT POSSIBLE TO DO MINE.” CHARLES DeGAULLE
Where possible the first stage of a close protection assignment should be the “Threat Assessment” the lack of appropriate intelligence to facilitate a thorough and accurate situation appraisal is not uncommon. It is therefore necessary to establish the likely source, nature, impact and probability and of a potential threat. Once the threat assessment has been done it can be used to formulate a security plan that has the flexibility to provide the most effective cover within any constraints imposed.
It would be unrealistic and impractical to cover every eventuality so, the more clearly the situation can be defined, the easier it is to determine the resources needed for the task. Because of possible manpower and financial constraints a compromise in some aspects is often necessary. It soon becomes apparent then that a thorough assessment will help you prioritize tasking, maximize cover and provide the most efficient protection within the operational environment.
Another aspect worth considering is that the risk and nature of threat, once defined, may be unacceptable to you as a professional CPO or that it could be that the risk though high might be acceptable which will often influence the costing involved.
For many commercial security assignments a specific threat to an individual is less likely than a general threat posed by his position in life (i.e., wealth, assets or what he symbolizes to an aggressor). He is often more likely to fall victim to organized crime, petty criminals, extortionists or opportunists.
As it is likely you will at sometime be involved with this aspect of CP it is essential that you have an understanding of the process. Apart from the operational necessity for a procedure of this nature it also serves as an opportunity for you to: Create a favorable first impression Reassure the client Establish your credibility Demonstrate that you understand the concept through valid input and appropriate comment.
THE AIMS OF THREAT ASSESSMENT ARE TO: Define the current and potential threat situation. Form a basis for all your planning. Identify the manpower, logistical and administrative requirements. Identify prioritization of tasking and resources. Help you analyze vulnerabilities. Identify specialist personnel and equipment requirements. Help you to formulate relevant procedures. Identify areas of further investigation and development Establish if the situation is reasonable or acceptable to you.
WHEN APPROACHING THREAT ASSESSMENT IT SHOULD BE ACCEPTED THAT:
A definite assessment is not possible. It will be difficult to precisely determine the probability and impact of an attack on certain clients. It may also be a problem to ascertain their vulnerability. To try and eliminate risk would be inappropriate and unfeasible. A discreet and tactful approach will often be necessary. It should be an ongoing process. The aim is to be able to control risk.
When assessing risk ask yourself, does the assailant have: A motive The ability/means The opportunity
With this is mind we need to examine PERSONAL VULNERABILITY FACTORS that can include: Nationality Residence/office location Routes used Vehicles used Routines/patterns Personal wealth Family routine/lifestyle The clients health Clients associations Places he visits
Consider also: Have people like the client, been targeted before? (Target Profile) Is the client a threat to someone? (Past, present, future) Is the client’s business activity attracting hostile attention? What, in particular, might the client be doing that might attract hostility? That being obvious (high profile) and predictable will put the client at risk – so strive to make them elusive, unpredictable and aware. In addition to any specific or personal vulnerability factors we need to examine the risks involved from:
GENERAL OR NON-SPECIFIC THREAT FACTORS: Political unrest Terrorist activity Religious conflict General crime (random criminality) Organized crime Environmental hazards Any potential hostile elements
WE NOW NEED TO CONSIDER: What can go wrong? How can it go wrong? Probability of it going wrong? Impact of it going wrong? How can I prevent it going wrong?
If we accept that all security is a combination of: Procedures Technical Physical
We can now consider some planning aspects that should include: Surveillance vulnerability assessment Counter surveillance Routine procedures Standing operating procedures Problem handling routines Problems that may be beyond human reaction time Security team composition Vehicles, administration and logistical needs Communication requirements Technical equipment requirements Security profile, Briefings/ Awareness training Note: Security will inevitably be a
compromise between operational requirement and convenience.
BASIC PRINCIPALS Thorough Logical Accurate – suspected, confirmed, hearsay (log & record as such) Relevant Clear Ongoing
METHOD This involves the basic process of establishing as many facts as possible before allocating resources, manpower, and procedures.
NATURE
(of threat)
Initially try to establish if the threat is: Specific or None Specific Imagined or Perceived Paranoia Circumstantial Factual Combination
TYPE
(of threat)
Then try to ascertain the type of threat posed: Physical (death, injury, kidnap) Embarrassment (media intrusion, eavesdropping) Disruptive Destructive Nuisance (sabotage) Eavesdropping (snooping, commercial intelligence) Intimidation Blackmail Stalking Psychological harassment / Intimidation
WHO
Identify who exactly is at risk: Principal only Family Relatives Associates Combination
WHAT
Identify what interests of the client may be at risk (Cause for concern) His business interests Residence Office Property/livestock Reputation/image Other Combination
EXTENT OF THE THREAT
How long has this been going on? (History) How many incidents? Exactly what happened? Were the incidents related? Who was involved/affected? Is there a pattern? What action was taken? Were security measures breached? Was there a build up? Is escalation likely? Have others in similar positions been affected?
IMPACT Try to gauge the likely impact of the various type of attack should they succeed so you can prioritize resources and efforts accordingly. Consider also the probability of an attack.
MOTIVATION The motivation behind hostile intent will often fall into o ne of the following categories: Politics Religion Race Culture Criminal Revenge Jealousy Obsession Grievance Vendetta Provocation Combination
Consider also: What night the client represent in the mind of aggressor. Is the client a threat to anyone? Does the client match the profile of others who are, or have been targeted? Once the source of a threat has been identified, their MO and capabilities must be assessed. By doing so we can plan to minimize the opportunity for attack.
VULNERABILITY FACTORS
(specific and no-specific) Nationality/Race Religion Political sympathies Associations (Direct/indirect) Personal wealth Social activities Family lifestyle, routines Residence location Office/business location Places he visits / Routes used / Patterns
VULNERABILITY FACTORS
(specific and no-specific) Nature of business Poor or non existing security Vehicles used Predictable patterns of behavior Does he insist on driving himself Fire hazards Environmental hazards – non swimming children and ponds – hazardous substances Health and safety considerations – hearing impairment Communication vulnerability (Landline / Mobile phone / e-mail)
OTHER VULNERABILITY FACTORS Mistaken identity (looks like, similar name, address confusion) Debts Legal proceedings (past, present, pending) Indiscretions Infidelities Previous jobs/posts held, business dealings
CLIENT HEALTH Age, Fitness, Allergies Medical history, chronic conditions etc LIFESTYLE, stress, smoker, alcohol excess, diet, drug abuser
CLIENT PROFILING Getting to know your client is an ongoing process that may take time and effort, often it is dependent on the interpersonal relationship you develop with him or her. Be aware of the security implications / vulnerabilities involved with every aspect of the clients life. With this in mind then, as a vital part of the assessment let us consider the seven P’s of client profiling.
PEOPLE Family Friends Rivals/Enemies Loves Business Associates Social contacts Anyone considered relevant
PLACES
Born/Educated Previous address Holiday destinations Restaurants used Venues Office location Residence location Social haunts Any location considered relevant
PREJUDICES Religion Race Culture Controversial issues
PERSONALITY A client may attract unwelcome attention for a variety of reasons and can be their own worst enemy. Do they have an unpleasant disposition? They may have a poor attitude to security.
Consider the following: Arrogant Brash Dismissive Provocative Boastful Vain Violent Ambitious Devious Unscrupulous Fastidious Methodical Mean
PERSONAL HISTORY Full name & title Marital status Outstanding achievements Nationalities (previous/current) Languages Military service Awards Qualifications Positions held Previous spouse Children Medical history Political history Convictions
PRIVATE LIFESTYLES It can be difficult to get any reliable information on this aspect, yet try to establish the following or any other aspect that could affect your protection plan:
Family man or philanderer Extra marital relationships Drinking habits Gambler Sporting and leisure activities Workaholic High profile Food & drink preferences Drug user Sexual orientation
POLITICAL VIEWS Influence Open support Published opinions and comments Associations Donations Memberships Political ambitions
SOURCES OF INFORMATION Verbal Abroad – Regional Security Officer Media Archival/library Internet Staff (past/present) Police, crime prevention Pinkerton & other intelligence agencies FCO
All information from whatever source must be: Collated Evaluated Recorded Filed Protected Revised & updated Disseminated as necessary Note:
client confidentiality must be observed at all times
CATEGORISING THE THREAT LEVEL It is not easy to categorize the level of threat, as there are many factors and circumstances involved. Some aspects you may be aware of and others may not come to light until later, some may never be known. In trying to determine the category of threat, it may help to consider the following definitions:
CATEGORY 1 Is the client in significant danger? Is an attack expected? Not ‘if’ but ‘when’ The impact of the attack would be serious or devastating
CAT 1 protection recommendations: CPO Personal Escort Section Residence Security Team Security Advance Party OST – Office Security Team Armored Vehicle Full Procedural, Technical and Physical cover
CATEGORY 2 Is the client in some danger? An attack is possible Not ‘when’ but ’if’
CAT 2 protection recommendations: CPO PES RST Selected aspects of CAT 1 protection as necessary Note:
Both CAT 1 and 2 involve 24/7 cover.
CATEGORY 3 CPO PES and RST as necessary
These categories are not an exact science and the edges are often blurred. It is also necessary to recognize that there are problems in determining precisely the level of threat and being able to implement the protection level deemed necessary. For instance a client may need CAT 1 protection but can only afford CAT 3. in other situations a CAT 1 protection is in place when a lower level would suffice.
CONCLUSION Threat Assessment is probably one of the most difficult aspects of Close Protection assignments you are likely to face. The accuracy of the assessment is the basis for all subsequent planning and deployment. If it is flawed the consequences could be very serious indeed. If we are to develop a secure environment for our client to operate in we must examine those aspects of their lives that increase their risk to the various threat possibilities and take appropriate steps to limit the opportunity for attack. PERCEPTION IS A BASIS FOR ACTION.
THE PRINCIPAL WILL NEVER CHANGE HIS LIFE TO MAKE YOURS EASIER
CLIENT CONTROL
YOUR JOB AS PPO is to endeavor at all times to control or influence from a security perspective all of the following: ACCESS: To the client VULNERABILITY: Of the client ROUTES: Used by the client SCHEDULES HABITS: Of client and family PROCEDURES: In all security matters AWARENESS: Educate in security ATTITUDES: Education in security for all concerned
If you have the trust and respect of your client, then he is much more likely to take your advice and recommendations on security. A co-operative and security aware client is much easier to protect. REMEMBER: There will be a security/convenience compromise SITUATION AWARENESS: Is our minutes by minute Threat Assessment.
THE TWO WORST MISTAKES IN EXECUTIVE PROTECTION OVER REACTION – RESULTS IN LIABILITY
UNDER REACTION – RESULTS IN FAILURE
FACTORS TO BE CONSIDERED IN THREAT MANAGEMENT YOUR SKILL LEVEL THE REPERCUSSIONS OF YOUR ACTIONS
DON’T PLAN ALL OF YOUR CONTINGENCIES TO THE OUSTSIDE, LOOK INSIDE AS WELL RABIN SADAT
RISK EXISTS WHEN THE FUTURE IS UNKNOWN!!
ADVANCE, ADVANCE, ADVANCE!!! KNOW WHAT YOU ARE FACING!!! – THREAT ASSESSMENT – RISK ANALYSIS
