THE ULTIMATE FOOTBALL BETTING SYSTEM Updated for the 2011/2012 season
INTRODUCTION This system is based on the fact that there are some teams that are far more consistent and predictable than others. These are not necessarily better or worse teams than others; they are just very well suited to gambling. The teams that have been selected to appear in this book have been chosen because they consistently produce a particular result. Over several years this result has appeared far more often than any other and certainly far more often than bookmakers’ odds would suggest. This is the way to Value for Money betting. ‘Value For Money’ (VFM) is all-important. If you are not getting good odds on a bet, then it is a bad bet and will eventually leave you broke. The systems described here are very simple to understand and follow – all the hard work has been done for you.
HOW TO IDENTIFY THE BEST BETS On the next page you will see the Top Ten list. These teams are in the list because: 1. Over several years, their games have regularly produced a particular result and, 2. Bookies are consistently over-generous with the odds offered on these correct score bets. These are the only teams that are to be used with this system, and then only using either home or away games as stated. To identify the best bets each match-day, just follow these rules: 1. Identify which of the teams in the Top Ten list are playing at home or away as required. 2. Eliminate any matches where the odds offered on the score listed are lower than the Value odds required. (If you ever have to eliminate any, you’re using the wrong bookie) 3. Bet on the scores of the selected matches to be as listed. E.g. Check whether Bolton are playing Away. If so, bet on the result to be 1-0 if odds offered are at least 9-2. Check whether Fulham are playing Away. If so, bet on the result to be 0-0 if odds offered are at least 9-2. Etc for all the teams in the list. On a typical match-day, this should yield four or five reliable bets. The reason these are value bets is that there is more chance of the bet being successful than the odds offered would suggest. You will find that most odds are over-estimated by at least one or two points. This difference between actual odds and Value odds is your profit margin.
TOP TEN LIST Team Bolton Fulham Man City Wigan
Home/Away Common Result Value odds (VFM) score % Fractional Decimal Away 1-0 18.4 9-2 5.5 Away 0-0 18.4 9-2 5.5 Home 1-0 19.7 9-2 5.1 Home 1-1 18.4 9-2 5.5
Bristol City Coventry Crystal Palace Ipswich
Home Home Away Home
1-1 1-1 1-1 1-1
21.7 19.6 19.6 19.6
4-1 9-2 9-2 9-2
4.6 5.2 5.2 5.2
Morecambe Shrewsbury
Home Away
1-1 1-1
18.5 21.7
9-2 4-1
5.5 4.6
About the top-ten list Whether you’re betting on a team’s home or away results, the scores listed always show the home team’s score first. E.g. – When Bolton play away from home, the most likely result is 1-0, meaning that they lose one to nil. The first score given is that of the home team, and not necessarily that of the team listed. Over recent years, 1-0 has appeared in 18.4% of Bolton’s away games. To be a value bet, you must get at least 9-2 on that bet, yet the actual odds offered are more likely to be around 7-1, giving you a massive advantage against the bookmaker. It is strongly recommended that you shop around for the best odds on all of your bets, especially from Betfair. Betfair is a betting exchange where you bet directly against other punters with a small commission taken from winnings. Odds are typically around 20% better than usual bookmakers and often even better than that.
STAKING SYSTEMS When you have identified the matches you’ll be betting on, there are a number of systems you can use in order to maximise your profits. If you have a favourite staking system, you can obviously use that, or you could use one or all of the three shown here. System 1 – Level Stakes The simplest way to bet on the selected matches is to bet at level stakes and treat each match as a single bet. On a day when there are six bets, you should only expect one or perhaps two to be winners but the over-generous odds offered will ensure that the small number of winners is easily enough to cover any losing bets and still leave a good profit. One winner from six bets will give you a profit of one or two points. Two winners from six bets will give you about eight points profit. Important point – When the Top Ten list requires you to bet on a team’s away games, make sure you write the bet with the home team and their score listed first. E.g. If Bolton are away at Tottenham, the bet is written as ‘Tottenham 1-0. The Top Ten list always gives the Home team’s score first. If you are using a pre-printed football coupon, just write the score exactly as it appears in the top ten list. Important point 2 – When two teams from the list are playing each other, treat it as two separate bets. Both bets are good value although they obviously can’t both win (except for Big Bets, described below). Betting at level stakes is the best way to ensure consistent and regular profits and those profits will average out at a couple of points each matchday. If however, you want bigger profits and are prepared to be a little patient, try betting multiples as shown in system 2. System 2 – Betting in Multiples When you have selected your bets, it’s possible to greatly increase the potential payout by combining the bets into multiples. Just use the permutation chart on the next page to find out how many bets are required. Doubles and Trebles are generally the best multiples because they give a nice payout for a small stake and they will come up fairly regularly. Many punters don’t bet multiples because they believe you are multiplying your disadvantage with every bet – and usually this is correct. However, when you only bet on VFM bets, you are actually multiplying your advantage and therefore your profits are also multiplied. System 3 – Big Bets This is when two teams in the list are playing each other and they both have the same common score. This year there are five big bets: Man City vs Bolton 1-0 Bristol City vs Crystal Palace 1-1 Coventry vs Crystal Palace 1-1 Ipswich vs Crystal Palace 1-1 Morecambe vs Shrewsbury 1-1 These are bets that are worth getting an extra couple of pounds on.
1
4
4
6
4
1
5
5
10
10
5
1
6
6
15
20
15
6
1
7
7
21
35
35
21
7
1
8
8
28
56
70
56
28
8
1
9
9
36
84
126
126
84
36
9
1
10
10
45
120
210
252
210
120
45
10
Ten-folds
3
Nine-folds
3
Eight-folds
3
Seven-folds
1
Six-folds
2
Five-folds
2
Four-folds
1
Trebles
Singles
1
Doubles
No. Matches
PERMUTATION CHART
1
System 4 – Season Series This system may seem a little complicated, but if followed correctly, it is almost guaranteed to produce whatever amount of profit you wish. I’ll run through the system using just one team (Shrewsbury) as an example. 1. Decide on how much profit you want to make on Shrewsbury. In our example we will set a target of £100. Set your own target according to the amount you can afford to stake 2. When Shrewsbury play away, use the odds offered to calculate the stake needed for a bet on 1-1 to give a profit of £100. E.g. if the odds offered are 6/1, stake required is £100 divided by 6 = £16.67. 3. Make a bet on the score to be 1-1 with a stake of £16.67. i) If the bet wins, you have made a profit of £100. You have hit your target and you should place no further bets on Shrewsbury. ii) If the bet loses, add the lost stake to your target and repeat from step 2 using the new target (i.e. £116.67) 4. Continue betting on Shrewsbury’s away results to be 1-1 and calculate stakes as shown until a winner is reached. At this point the return from that winning bet will cover all previous losses and leave a profit of £100. All of the teams in the Top Ten list have hit their Common Result many times in the years examined, and for this system to be successful they only need to hit it once this season. The example above uses just one series and produces a profit of £100. If you want to win more often and are able to bet with bigger stakes, you can have up to ten separate series by following all the teams in the same way. When all the teams have hit just one winner each, you have a profit of £1,000.
EXPECTED RESULTS The reason that all of these systems are so effective is that you are only betting on VFM bets. When you combine those bets, whether as doubles or trebles, etc. you multiply your advantage. As an example we can see that VFM odds on a Wigan home game ending up as a 1-1 home win is listed as 9-2. In reality it is much more likely that this bet would be offered at around 6-1 or more. This is therefore a VFM bet. The average odds you will be offered on all the results listed will be at least 6/1, and usually will be more, especially using Betfair. A successful treble will therefore pay a return of at least 342/1. If you hit a successful four-fold, you will be paid at least 2400/1. From these figures you can see that your stakes don’t need to be very big to produce a very good return. Use the permutation chart and decide whether you want to bet on doubles or trebles or bigger multiples. Choose a stake that you can afford and that will give the returns you desire. If you have a spare pound, I would also recommend investing this on an accumulator consisting of all bets for the day. On days where you have six suitable bets, you could win over £120,000 for your one pound stake. Obviously this bet isn’t going to win very often, but it only needs to happen once, ever, to be worthwhile. It’s definitely a far better bet than spending it on the lottery.
SUMMARY You now know which the most predictable teams in the English leagues are. You also know what the most common result of each team is. You know how often that result occurs and what odds can be accepted in order for the value to be good value.
So, to summarise. Only bet on the VFM matches shown in the Top Ten list. Remember – only bet when the listed team is at home or away as required and also remember that the home team’s score is always listed first. Bet at level stakes to produce regular, long-term profits. You can also bet in multiples to increase payouts. Keep stakes low enough so you can afford to cover all the multiples. Bet on each team individually using increasing stakes to produce a pre-planned profit. Don’t allow sentiment to cloud your judgment. The systems and statistics in this book are all based on hard facts. If the system says you must bet on your favourite team to lose, then that is what you must do if you want maximum profits.
Follow these rules and you simply can’t go wrong.
