Welcome To The Soccer-4-Money-System Introduction "Football and Betting Exchanges are a dream come true." The sole aim of this manual is to reveal a formula to you so that you can make money from the betting exchanges using the football markets. Football used to be dominated by punters betting on trebles, and bookmakers loved it! Those days are over. This manual is all about how you can employ a simple trading formula to win consistently on the betting exchanges. You will be taught how to win money from other punters and operate as a 'wolf' in other words, a shrewd trader. This manual is aimed at those already familiar with how betting exchanges work but if you are a newcomer, a brief introduction is provided in Section 2. We have tried to keep Section 1 concise, putting into context who uses the betting exchanges, and where you should stand in the pecking order. The meat of the manual comes in Section 4 where The 4 System Formula is revealed. This is not theoretical mumbo jumbo but a trading formula that works, backed up with evidence. In fact, Section 5 takes you right to the heart of what it's like making money when we invited one of our contacts to road test the formula. We hope you enjoy this manual.
SECTION 1: SETTING THE SCENE 1.1 Bookmakers and Football Betting Despite all the media coverage on websites and in the newspapers, you'd have expected punters to have as much information on football as journalists and odds compilers. Yet they still end up losing. Why do punters find it so hard to win at football betting? The answer lies in two areas: * Sentimentality - punters bet on emotion. * Mathematics - punters have little, or no, grasp of bookmaking. Sentimentality The majority of punters have a fundamental tendency to bet on emotion and 'gut feeling'. They over-estimate the chance of the team they support winning a game and have a bet on them more out of loyalty than anything else. This is seen even more when patriotism comes to the fore, let's say in a major competition, when huge amounts of bets are placed on England. Betting with the heart as opposed to the head is commonplace, and this is reflected in the profits that bookmakers report from football punters. For some punters, the odds they end up taking on their bets doesn't worry them because their emotion and mindset are based on "if it's going to win, who cares what price I've taken". This kind of attitude is fundamentally flawed, and is the reason why this type of punter, who is betting with fixed-odds bookmakers, can never win over the long-term. Mathematics Following on from the last paragraph, most punters do not have a firm grasp of the way bookmakers 'price up' football matches to their benefit. The bookmakers profit margin, or 'over-round', can be seen by taking the odds of any match. For example, on Saturday 19th February 2005, Ladbrokes were offering the following odds on the Everton v Manchester United FA Cup game: Everton 11/4 Man Utd 4/5 Draw 9/4 Ask most punters to tell you the bookmakers profit margin based on these prices, and you'll be met by a blank stare. The answer is 12.97%.
To calculate the percentage chance of a fractional price, in the case of the Everton home win price of 11/4, simply divide the 11 by the 4 = 2.75, then add on 1, and then divide 100 by 3.75 = 26.66%. The percentages for that game then work out as follows: Everton 26.66% Man Utd 55.55% Draw 30.76% Total 112.97% A perfectly balanced book with no profit margin is 100% so you can see in the above example that the 'over-round' is 12.97%. The relevance of mentioning this here is that as you can see, punters who continue to bet with fixed odds, traditional bookmakers are fighting a losing battle. In fact, even by cherry picking the very best prices with different bookmakers, which is likely to drop the 'over-round' to around 8%, the writing is on the wall, and the cold, hard facts are that nearly every single punter who bets consistently on football will lose over the long-term. Bookmakers have moved with the times by changing their policy of only accepting trebles to offering singles on all games, and updated in-running (in-play) odds on televised games. 1.2 Betting Exchanges and Football Betting Punters have had an alternative for their football betting in the last few years in the shape of person-to-person betting platforms, or betting exchanges as they are more commonly called. The two major ones are Betfair (www.betfair.com) and Betdaq (www.betdaq.com). If you are unfamiliar with how betting exchanges work, please refer to Section 2 of this manual. Punters who have moved across from placing bets with fixed odds bookmakers to utilising the exchanges, have done so for three main reasons: * To achieve better odds on the teams they want to back. * To have the option of acting as a bookmaker, and 'laying' teams that they don't fancy. * To be able to back or lay after kick off - what is known as 'in-play'. The football markets on the exchanges attract lots of punters, and in terms of Betfair, football betting is second only to horse racing when it comes to volumes of 'matched bets'. This trend is accelerating all the time as more and more punters are attracted to the fundamental advantages of exchange betting, and it probably won't be long before football takes over from horse racing as the number one betting medium. In the Everton v Manchester United example in the previous section, the best odds on the home or away win, and the draw, were not with Ladbrokes but with Betfair. Odds comparison sites such as Oddschecker (www.betbrain.com) aid punters in finding which bookmakers or exchanges are offering the best odds. This type of site should be used without hesitation every time you are contemplating placing a football bet. In saying that, it is still surprising the number of punters who stick with one, or a very small group of bookmakers, to place all their bets. The point about punters betting on emotion still holds true for the vast majority of people who use the exchanges for their football betting. The focus of this manual, and The 4 System Formula that we'll come onto later, is all about using the betting exchanges to your advantage. The increasing use of exchanges for football betting is great news for you as a trader because you are only interested in: * High liquidity * Price movements These two factors, brought about by the varying opinions of punters, will give you the opportunities to trade and win. Forget about studying player or team form, wasting endless hours checking out statistics and reading the football press. The way to make money from football (other than as a highly paid professional player!) is to trade on the betting exchanges, and in particular, using the 'in-play' markets where you can create guaranteed profit situations. 1.3 Why Trading works Football punters have tried for years to beat the bookmakers and failed. Trading works because it embraces the fundamental bookmaking concept of risk management ? looking to hedge your position so that you can't lose. Trading seeks to make money from the ignorance, and emotion, of the majority ? for want of a better term, the 'mug punters'.
The beauty of live televised football trading is that you can aim to supplement your income from football, and do this around your full-time job, as nearly all live matches take place in the evenings or at weekends. 1.4 Sheep, Shepherds and Wolves The price movements on the betting exchanges on the outcomes of matches (i.e. home win, away win or draw) are based on knowing the interaction between the sheep, the shepherds and the wolves. The Sheep This is the group of people that you are going to make money from. These are the punters whose betting is based on greed ('easy money'!), emotion, ignorance and following the accepted wisdom ?'following the crowd'. Someone who is a regular loser looks to find winners from other sources. These sources are perceived to be experts, such as journalists and tipsters (the shepherds). Whenever these experts advise a bet, the reaction of the sheep is to create a stampede ? they are all looking for odds about the same outcome, and this becomes self-reinforcing, further shortening the odds on offer. As we said earlier on - "if it's going to win, who cares what price I've taken." Coming under the same classification, there is also a group of people who will take shorter prices on the betting exchanges rather than seek bigger-priced alternatives with traditional bookmakers. The Shepherds This is the group of perceived experts who influence the actions of the sheep. One of the major shepherds is the Racing Post (www.racingpost.co.uk) who have a massive following when it comes to football betting. Other shepherds would include tipping services that can influence the market to a position where the outcome becomes 'over bet'. The Wolves This is the group of people who you should be aiming to join. These are the shrewd operators and traders who take advantage of the interaction between shepherds and sheep, and then look to step in to a market when the time is right. Greed, emotion and ignorance are all thrown out of the window for the wolves because they understand how 'mug punters' operate. It is the job of the wolves to calculate beforehand how the sheep will react to events.
SECTION 2: GETTING STARTED ON THE BETTING EXCHANGES 2.1 What is a betting exchange? It has always been accepted that if you want to have a bet, you go to a bookmaker who offers you odds about the horse/player/team you're interested in. The relationship is simple - you are the backer and the bookmaker (licensed under gaming legislation) is the layer. A betting exchange doesn't quite work like this because you actually bet against other punters, rather than traditional bookmakers. It is no coincidence that a betting exchange is also known as a person-to-person betting platform. It works just like a stock exchange - in other words, a meeting place for traders. A betting exchange makes its money by charging a commission on all winning trades, similar to a stockbroker. 2.2 How does a betting exchange operate? With a betting exchange you can choose to do the following: * Take on the role of the bookmaker, offering odds for others to bet on. * Bet as an ordinary punter, backing where others have offered the odds. The odds (or prices) available on a betting exchange are shown in decimals, unlike most British-based bookmakers who use fractions.
For example, a 4/5 chance with a bookmaker would read 1.8 on a betting exchange and a 5/2 chance would read 3.5. These decimals include your stake as part of your total return so in the first example above, £100 win at 1.8 returns £180 if your horse/player/team wins, whereas British-based bookmakers would quote 4/5 (the same as 1.8), so you would have winnings of £80 plus your original stake of £100 (a total return of £180). 2.3 How do I get started? The Internet has been the perfect medium for the growth of the betting exchanges. Their websites can be viewed by a global audience, and that means you could be betting against someone from the other side of the world, although you wouldn't know this because an individual's identity is not revealed. To get started you'll therefore need a computer, phone line and access to the Internet . it is recommended when trading to be on a fast connection (known in the UK as ADSL or broadband). For best broadband deals click here. In order to trade on a betting exchange, you will first need to open an account and deposit some money. 2.4 The main betting exchange websites * www.betfair.com Betfair is the market leading betting exchange at present with turnover in the region of £50 million every week. Commission rates on winning trades vary from 2 to 5% and the more you bet the less commission you pay. Betfair has a strong marketplace and liquidity is good. * www.betdaq.com Betdaq is still comparatively small by Betfair's standards and at the moment doesn't have the same sort of market liquidity. To compensate for this Betdaq offers a lower starting commission rate of 3%. If you are not a registered user of these sites, we recommend you click on the links above, and open up accounts with them. Your first visit to one of the above websites can be quite a daunting experience, and the online help options that are available should prove invaluable. If you are already a registered user, we suggest that you open a brand new account separate from all your other previous exchange activity. The reason we recommend this is because you are likely to be more structured starting again from scratch. You can close down your other account if you want to or keep it running for activities other than trading on football. IMPORTANT: You should refrain from trading on a betting exchange, and using the contents of this manual, until you feel totally comfortable and are fully conversant with the terms and conditions. 2.5 Trading Principals The main reason behind the rise of betting exchanges such as www.betfair.com and www.betdaq.com is that they offer punters the opportunity to play dual roles. The terminology used on betting exchanges is lay (or sell) and back (or buy). * If you decide to adopt the role of the bookmaker (or layer) you will in effect be offering a price under the lay column. * If you decide to adopt the role of the punter (or backer) you would place an order under the back column. * If you adopt the role of the trader, you are backing and laying at different odds to create profit positions. Here is an example of a race taken from www.betfair.com:
This screenshot is relatively self-explanatory with the lay prices on the right hand side coloured pink, and the back prices on the left hand side coloured blue. To place a trade on a particular horse you click on the relevant coloured square. The cash values below the prices (referred to as liquidity) indicate the total amount of money you could 'match' at that particular point in time (don't forget that this screenshot is only a snapshot and prices/liquidity are constantly changing). As an example, if you wanted to back Red Trance, the current best price is 5.6 (4.6/1). Let's say you wanted a £50 win bet, this is what would happen - £40 of your £50 would be 'matched' immediately (in other words, you would have a confirmed win bet of £40 @ 5.6) but the remaining £10 would remain 'unmatched' for the time being. This would result in the screenshot changing, and on the lay side, 5.6 would appear showing £10 underneath. You are then effectively asking someone to come along as a layer and 'match' your £10 stake. The betting exchanges are totally flexible and it's possible to request prices that are better than on the back side of the screen. For example, looking at the above screenshot, you may want to back Barbajuan at 4.0 (3/1). If you put an order in for let's say £25, this would remain 'umatched' - the effect on the screen would be to see the £17 already underneath the 4.0 price, increase to £42 (your £25 is effectively second in line to the £17). A layer may then come along and be willing to take the £42, in which case your 'umatched' order becomes a 'matched' one. Whilst this section has explained the basics, our advice is simple. If you are not already familiar with betting exchanges and don't have your own account(s), visit the websites and consult the 'getting started' sections - they have basically done the explaining job for us in an excellent fashion.
SECTION 3 - INITIAL SUMMARY 3.1 Betting Banks The first point to make is that when it comes to funding your betting exchange account in preparation for using The 4 System Formula, make sure this risk capital is within your own comfort zone, and it is money that you do not need to pay for essentials such as your mortgage, bills etc. You should always keep your betting and trading activities separate and be prepared for the ultimate worse case scenario which is for your entire betting bank to be lost. The examples shown in the next section, and those in the diary (Section 5), are based on a starting betting bank of £2000. If you decide to operate from this bank size then the following staking is advisable: 3.2 System 1 - Goal Demander Method 1 - When opening a trade using this method, the potential liability should be set to no more than 25% of your bank. In the case of a £2000 starting bank, this is a £500 liability. Method 2 - When opening a trade using this method, the potential liability should be set to no more than 50% of your bank. In the case of a £2000 starting bank, this is a £1000 liability. 3.3 System 2 - Quick Goals
When opening a trade using this method using a £2000 starting bank, a £300 stake is advised. 3.4 System 3 - Levels When opening a trade using this method, the potential liability should be set to no more than 25% of your bank. In the case of a £2000 starting bank, this is a £500 liability. 3.5 System 4 - The Time Bomb When opening a trade using this method, the potential liability should be set to no more than 50% of your bank. In the case of a £2000 starting bank, this is a £1000 liability. NOTE - We would recommend that should your starting betting bank reduce in size, you should stake to a percentage of your lower bank figure.
SECTION 4: THE 4 SYSTEM FORMULA The formula is based on the use, and interaction, of four systems - Goal Demander, Quick Goals, Levels and The Time Bomb. You should not be tempted to cherry pick the systems that you will use because the four systems work together to form a complete methodology. Each system has been rated in terms of its risk profile with (1) representing the lowest risk to (5) representing the highest. The examples shown are taken from actual Betfair data supplied to us. NB: All bookmakers fractional odds quoted in this section are followed by the betting exchange equivalent - e.g. 5/2 (3.5) 4.1 System 1 - Goal Demander (Risk Profile: 3 and 4) The Criteria This is the only system within The 4 System Formula where you open up a trading position before the kick off. It is strictly based on the pre-match odds available to you. There are two methods, and two sets of criteria, within the Goal Demander: * Method 1 Any live televised match qualifies. The pre-match odds for the draw must be 5/2 (3.5) or less. Both the home and away teams need to be a minimum of Evens (2.0). * Method 2 Any live televised match qualifies. The pre-match odds for either the home or away teams is no higher than 4/5 (1.8) and not less than 1/2 (1.5) to win the match. (The advice is to exclude Derby games for Method 2 - e.g. Manchester United v Manchester City). The Methods Method 1 (Risk Profile: 3) * You lay the draw before the kick off if the match odds fit the criteria. * Should a goal be scored by either team the odds on the draw will move higher. You then back the draw at the bigger odds to secure a profitable trade. You can use the Trading Calculator software to stake your back part of the trade so that you end up with a winning position no matter what the final outcome of the match. * If no team has scored a goal and the match odds for the draw reaches Evens (2.0) then you back the draw for twice the amount of your lay liability. Example: If your lay liability is £100 then you would back the draw at Evens (2.0) with a £200 stake. (This would normally happen between the 60th and 66th minute mark). * After you back the draw for twice the amount of your lay liability, you then look to trade off as soon as possible with a lay at close to 1.8. If 1.8 has not been reached by the 70th minute, this is the cut off point to close out your trade. The aim is to reduce your liabilities on the trade to around 15% or £15 in every £100. Example 1 - Tottenham v Liverpool - August 14th 2004 The first live game of the 2004-2005 Premiership season was between Tottenham and Liverpool. The match odds for the draw would have fitted the criteria for Method 1 of the Goal Demander, and the draw would have been laid at 3.35 for £213 to leave a potential loss position of £500 if the game had ended all square (see below). Please refer to Section 3 on the staking used for the systems within The 4 System Formula.
Liverpool took the lead in the 38th minute through Djibril Cisse, and shortly after that point, when the market had re-established itself and settled down, you would have closed the trade by backing the draw at the higher price, leaving a profit on whatever the eventual outcome of the game. The draw would have been backed at 5.0 with an £140 stake leaving you with a guaranteed profit of £60 if the game finished all square or £73 profit if either Liverpool or Tottenham went on to win the match (see below). Again, use the Trading Calculator to help you.
Tottenham's Jermain Defoe equalized in the 71st minute and the match finished in a draw. A £60 profit would have been made on this game with this trade - Method 1 of the Goal Demander. Example 2 - Aston Villa v Chelsea - September 11th 2004 The live clash between Aston Villa and Chelsea matched the criteria for Method 1 of the Goal Demander, and the draw would have been laid at 3.35 to lose no more than £500.
This game was a tight affair, and by the 62nd minute, the match odds for the draw had reached Evens (2.0). Following the method for this trade, the draw would have been backed for double the liability of the original lay ? so ?1,000 at 2.0:
As you can see from the this screenshot, you would now have significant liabilities if either Aston Villa or Chelsea scored, so you would be looking to reduce those liabilities as quickly as possible. NOTE - Once the match odds for the draw reaches Evens (2.0) you will make a loss for Method 1 of the Goal Demander. Seven minutes later the odds for the draw shortened to 4/5 (1.80) and you would then have laid the draw to reduce the liabilities on the Aston Villa and Chelsea positions. In the screenshot below, the draw would have been laid to a stake of £719 leaving you with a £75 loss on the draw - this is calculated as the £500 profit on the draw, as per the previous screenshot, minus £719 x 0.8 = £575 - so a loss of £75. The £68 loss on Aston Villa or Chelsea is calculated as the £787 loss, as per the previous screenshot, plus the £719 stake that you would collect if either team won the match.
The Reasoning This is based on an extensive analysis of the data for the 2004-2005 Premiership season. Method 1 * Of the 138 live Premiership matches in the 2004-2005 season, 63 matches qualified for Method 1 of the Goal Demander System (46%). * Of those 63 matches that qualified, the first goal of the match was scored before the match odds on the draw had reached Evens (2.0) in 50 of the matches (79%). Method 2 (Risk Profile: 4) * You back either the home or away team if they match the criteria prior to kick off. * Should they score the first goal their match odds will shorten. You then lay them to win the match at the shorter odds to secure a profitable trade. You can use the Trading Calculator software to stake your lay part of the trade so that you end up with a winning position no matter what the final outcome of the match. * If the team you have initially backed has not took the lead by the time they lengthen to Evens (2.0) in the game, then you lay them back to a position where you break even if they win the game, and incur a smaller loss if they do not win the game. Again, use the Trading Calculator to help you. Example 1 - Everton v Arsenal - August 15th 2004 In the first Sunday game of the 2004-2005 Premiership season Arsenal, with pre-match odds of 1.62, qualified for Method 2 of the Goal Demander. A £1000 back stake would have been placed on Arsenal before the kick-off (see below). Please refer to Section 3 on the staking used for the systems within The 4 System Formula.
Arsenal took the lead through Dennis Bergkamp in the 23rd minute and this would have left you in a position to close the trade off securing a profit whatever the eventual outcome of the match. The aim is to make at least 20% of your original stake, with the profits being skewed towards the team you backed prior to the kick off.
In the above screenshot, to close the trade, Arsenal would have been laid at 1.25 for £1200. The profit positions are £320 if Arsenal win the game or £200 if it ends in a draw or Everton come back and win. Arsenal ran out 4-1 winners and the £320 profit would have been secured. Example 2 - Tottenham v Norwich - 12th Sept 2004 Tottenham entertained Norwich and the home side qualified for Method 2 of the Goal Demander. A £1000 back stake would have been placed at odds of 1.68:
The game was a tight affair even though Spurs had the best chances. It remained 0-0 when the match odds for Tottenham reached Evens (2.0). This is the cut off point for this trade, and Tottenham would have been laid back at Evens (2.0) for £680. This would have left the position of making no money if Spurs won, and a £320 loss if the game finished all-square or Norwich won:
The match finished 0-0 and a loss of £320 would have been recorded on this match. As we have said, this is a high-risk trade and losses may occur in individual games over the course of the season. That said, the rewards should outweigh the risks over the full course of the season. Example 3 - Fulham v Manchester United - 13th Dec 2004 Manchester United were very short at 1.58 to beat Fulham at Craven Cottage. Qualifying for Method 2 of the Goal Demander, a £1000 back stake would have been placed pre-kick off at those odds (see below).
Alan Smith opened the scoring for the visitors in the 33rd minute, and the trade would have been closed out to leave a healthy profit on Manchester United winning the match. A £1200 lay stake would have been placed at 1.21:
Fulham equalized in the 87th minute through Papa Bouba Diop but the system had already secured a healthy profit whatever the final outcome. The Reasoning This is based on an extensive analysis of the data for the 2004-2005 Premiership season. Method 2 * Of the 138 live Premiership games during the 2004-2005 season, 19 games qualified for Method 2 of the Goal Demander System (14%). * Of those 19 matches that qualified, the first goal was scored by the team that were backed before kick off at odds of between 4/5 (1.8) and 1/2 (1.5) in 13 of those matches (68%). * The Goal Demander System (both Methods) produced a 77% success rate and a profit of £3370 during the 2004-2005 Premiership season. 4.2 System 2 - Quick Goals (Risk Profile: 1)
This system is considered a solid, low-risk trading system, and is very suitable for risk-averse traders. The liquidity in the under/over 2.5 goals market on Betfair is not as strong as the main match odds market, and this is the reason why stakes using this system are reduced accordingly. The Criteria * Any live televised match qualifies - this is essential because this system involves trading if a goal is scored within the first 10 minutes. * There are no criteria to the pre-match odds as you are trading in a different in-play market - the under/over 2.5 goals market on Betfair. The Method * To back under 2.5 goals if a goal is scored within the first 10 minutes of the match by either the home or away team. * The aim is to secure a risk-free profit once the first goal is scored. Do not play in this market in the pre-match position. * This is an in-play trade on how many goals will be scored in the match. You ONLY get involved after the first goal is scored, as soon as the market re-establishes itself and settles down (usually within 2 minutes of the goal being scored). * Once you have backed under 2.5 goals, you are looking to lay your position within a short time period (3-5 minutes) leaving you with a profit on whatever the outcome of the match in terms of goals. You should be looking to make around 5% - 10% of your trading stake. The Reasoning * A study across a number of seasons by Kevin Pullein of the Racing Post showed that a goal within the first 10 minutes is no more significant than there being more than 2.5 goals, than the actual chance before the kick off. * It gives you as the trader the opportunity to back at increased odds to those being offered before the kick off, thus ensuring a good trading position. * By trading in such a tight time span (3-5 minutes after the first goal), the odds of another goal remains exactly the same as before the kick off. * This is a low-risk trading system so you are highly likely to be in a position to close the trade at a profit. * During the time span quoted (3-5 minutes after the first goal), the odds will shorten on under 2.5 goals whilst the odds on over 2.5 goals will lengthen. By using our Trading Calculator software you will be in a good position to secure a trading profit. * Of the 138 live Premiership games during the 2004-2005 season, 14% of the matches qualified for this system with a 100% success rate. Example - WBA v Aston Villa - August 22nd 2004 Olof Mellberg gave Aston Villa the lead in the 4th minute of this match and this would have triggered the Quick Goals trade. A back stake of £300 would have been placed on under 2.5 goals at the odds of 2.5 (see below). Please refer to Section 3 on the staking used for the systems within The 4 System Formula.
A goal in the first five minutes means you are likely to get matched at odds of around 2.5. Your next aim is to close off the trade as quickly as possible securing a profit on either outcome. This particular game would have been closed out within a four-minute timeframe by laying under 2.5 goals at 2.4 for £310, leaving you a profit of either - £16 or £10 (see below). A decrease in odds from 2.5 to around 2.38 within five minutes of the first goal is very typical.
WBA did not equalize until the 38th minute and if you had traded out in the 30th minute of the game you would have made the following profit (see below).
Yes, in this example, you could have made more money by leaving the trade open but we would always advise against this. Remember, this is meant to be a low-risk trading system where you are looking to quickly make between 5 and 10% of your trading stake. A second goal from either team will leave you wide open to make heavy losses. The advice is to close the trade as quickly as possible securing a small profit. If you traded within a 4-5 minute time span after a first goal had been scored within the first 10 minutes, during the 2004-2005 Premiership season you would have made a profit on every game. 4.3 System 3 - Levels (Risk Profile: 5) This system has the highest risk rating within The 4 System Formula because it is based on a one-way, open lay position. The Criteria * Any live televised match qualifies - this is essential because this system involves trading if a goal is scored within the first 25 minutes. * Prior to kick off, both teams must be available at Evens (2.0) or above. * When a goal is scored within the first 25 minutes, if the team leading is the home team, they have to be at odds of 1.5 or lower to qualify. If the team leading is the away team, they have to be at odds of 1.9 or lower to qualify. * You do not include the big three teams in the Premiership (Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United) in this system whether they are playing each other or different opponents, even if they match the above criteria. The Method * To lay the team who scores first if the goal comes before the 25th minute. This action is one of going against the majority of punters who will want to back the team instead. * You need to wait until the match odds market re-establishes itself and settles down after the first goal is scored before laying the team leading the match. * You now have a one-way lay and will lose if the team wins the match. * If there is an equalizing goal then you close out the trade leaving a healthy profit on all results. * When this open lay reaches the position in the match for opening The Time Bomb trade (see next system), you should take the loss on this system by backing at the odds you are opening up with The Time Bomb trade. The Reasoning * Teams that are evenly matched tend to produce tight games, and more often than not, the team that takes an early lead will not go on to win the game without conceding at least an equalizer. * The match odds on the team leading the match are unlikely to decrease very much from your opening lay position as the match progresses, unless a second goal is scored by that team. The cut off point will be around the 60th minute, and normally at the point of the match, The Time Bomb System kicks into play. * By laying the team leading the match, if there is an equalizer, you are in a position to secure a very healthy profit. Because of the frequency of equalizing goals based on the criteria for this system, in the 2004-2005 Premiership season, you would have had a 100% strike rate. However, it is probably more likely that the overall success rate will be lower in future seasons. * 7% of all live Premiership games in the 2004-05 season qualified for this system, and as mentioned, you would have had a 100% success rate, and produced a profit of £5569. Example 1 - WBA v Aston Villa 22nd Aug 2004
As we mentioned earlier, in this match, Aston Villa took the lead in the 4th minute through Olof Mellberg. Not only did the game qualify for the Quick Goals system but it also qualified for the Levels system as well. Aston Villa would have been laid at 1.47 to lose £500 (see above), putting you in a very strong position if WBA equalized. They did in the 38th minute and the trade would have been closed out securing a healthy profit for the game (see below). Aston Villa would have been backed at odds of 2.72 with a £450 stake, leaving a minimum profit of £274 on the match. It is recommended that when closing out this type of trade, you skew the profit towards the home team.
Example 2 - Bolton v Birmingham 25th Sept 2004 Bolton took an early lead in the 16th minute through a goal by Radhi Jaidi, not only did that close out Method 1 of the Goal Demander, it would also have presented an opportunity to open up the Levels trade. Bolton would have been laid to the sum of £1020 at 1.49, giving a liability of £500 (see below).
Muzzy Izzet equalized for Birmingham in the 49th minute, and the trade would have been closed out by staking £600 at 2.3 to leave a healthy guaranteed profit (see below).
4.4 System 4 - The Time Bomb (Risk Profile: 1) This system is considered a solid, low-risk trading system, and is very suitable for risk-averse traders. The Criteria * Any live televised match qualifies - this is essential because this system involves trading at a certain point in the second half of the match. * Prior to kick off, the more evenly matched the two teams are - i.e. 6/4 (2.5) each - the better the trading opportunity could be for this system. It also works well on the outsiders who are leading at a certain point in the second half. The reason is that any odds over Evens (2.0) will reduce by increments of 0.02, whereas the odds at less than Evens (2.0) will only reduce by 0.01. This means a profit can be potentially secured quicker on outsiders. * The odds available at the time of opening the trade have to be no lower than 1.35. * If the first goal of the match is scored after the 55th minute and before the 75th minute, and the odds on the team who scored that goal are equal to or higher than 1.35, then you get involved. * If a team pulls back a goal (after trailing by 2 goals) after the 55th minute and before the 75th minute, the odds on the team winning the match at that point have to be equal or higher than 1.35 for you to get involved. The Method * The aim is to secure a risk-free profit during the second half of a live match. Do not get involved prior to kick off or during the first half. * This is an in-play trade on the team that is currently winning the match but you do not get involved until a certain point of the match. * If the team leading the game matches the criteria by the time the game reaches a point between the 60th to 64th minutes, you open up a live trade by backing that team to win the match. * If the game is 0-0 when the match reaches the 56th minute, you would be looking to back either team that scores the first goal, if the match odds are 1.35 or higher. If the game is 0-0 by the 75th minute, you will not be getting involved in the match using this system. * The previous comment applies if a team is leading 2-0 and the losing team pulls a goal back between the 55th and 75th minute. You open up a live trade on the team leading if the odds are above 1.35. * You are then looking to lay the team you have backed within a 3 to 4 minutes period, leaving you are trading profit if that team goes on to win the match. * The aim is to trade to a position where you will make 5-10% profit on your stake if the team goes on to win the match. Of course, you can use our Trading Calculator software to guarantee a winning position whatever the final outcome. As a rule, we recommend looking to make 2% profit on your stake if the game finishes in a draw. The Reasoning * Two factors are happening once you have opened up a live position. Firstly, the team you have backed is winning the match and secondly, the clock is ticking towards the end of the game. The likely end result will mean the odds on that team winning the match is likely to keep shortening. * The 60th to 64th minute zone is a 'tipping point' where the odds on the team winning at that stage of the game start to decrease quite rapidly. The reason is that the majority of punters start to think that with 30 minutes and less to go, the chances are that team leading will win. With this system you are looking to take advantage of the thinking, and actions, of other punters. * By trading out in such a tight time span (3 to 4 minutes after opening up your trade), the odds of the team currently losing equalizing in this timeframe are extremely high. * This is a low-risk trading system so you are highly likely to be in a position to close the trade at a profit. * It is important before and during this trade that you are monitoring the developments in the match. For example, it would not be advisable to open up this trade in the 60th to 64 minute zone if the team losing have a corner or free kick. As with all trading, the advice is to have your wits about you. The traders who make the most money are the ones who are the most alert! * In the 2004-05 Premiership season, 27% of the matches qualified for The Time Bomb system, and a 100% success rate produced a £2066 profit. Example 1 - Tottenham v Liverpool - August 14th 2004
In this game, Liverpool took the lead in the 38th minute (see the second screenshot in Method 1 of the Goal Demander) and between that point and the 60th minute, the match odds for Liverpool have stayed the same around the 1.35 mark. The reason for this is because of the 'away team' effect. The above screenshot shows that a £1000 back stake on Liverpool would have been placed at 1.36. Within four minutes of that action taking place, the odds on Liverpool would have shortened, and a £1020 lay at 1.31 would have been secured resulting in a guaranteed profit:
Incidentally, when Tottenham equalized in the 71st minute, Liverpool had ticked down to 1.25. Yes, in this example, you could have made more money by leaving the trade open but we would always advise against this. Remember, this is meant to be a low-risk trading system where you are looking to quickly make between 5 and 10% of your trading stake. SECTION 5: THE 4 SYSTEM FORMULA DIARY This section has been included in this manual to give you a better picture of what it's like using The 4 System Formula in actual games. Football Select have a network of contacts so we decided to use one of them to road test the formula. Sportsvision trader, Matt Finnigan, was given access to the formula and told to see if he could make a profit over a week. He opened a separate account on Betfair with a starting bank of £2000. His aim was to see if he could secure a profit on the European matches (not the Premiership) using the formula. NOTE - Whilst the rest of this manual highlights examples from the 2004-2005 Premiership season, it must be stressed that The 4 System Formula can be used on any live televised match where the market goes 'in play'. 5.1 Day 1 - Tuesday, April 5th 2005 Two live Champions League quarter final first leg matches were taking place - Liverpool v Juventus and Lyon v PSV. In the Liverpool game, the majority of the pre-match money was centred on the draw, as that seemed the most likely outcome. For the trader road testing the formula, Method 1 of the Goal Demander would be triggered, as the odds on the draw were less than 3.5 and both teams were a minimum of Evens (2.0). A lay stake of £238 was placed on the draw at 3.1 for a liability of £500: Goal Demander (Method 1) - Opening up the trade
In the other match, Lyon just qualified at odds of 4/5 (1.8) for Method 2 of the Goal Demander system so a £1000 back stake was placed on them: Goal Demander (Method 2) - Opening up the trade
Liverpool opened the scoring in the 10th minute through Sami Hyypia, and this gave the trader the perfect opportunity to close the position for a guaranteed profit. He backed the draw at 3.7 to a stake of £200 leaving him with a minimum profit of £38: Goal Demander (Method 1) - Closing out the trade
At the same time, because a goal was scored within the first 10 minutes, he opened up a trade using the Quick Goals system. A £300 back stake was placed on under 2.5 Goals at 2.14: Quick Goals - Opening up the trade
Within seconds of having his £300 back stake matched, he immediately entered a lay order at 1.95 for £330 to secure a guaranteed profit. This lay order remained unmatched for a short period of time but by the 15th minute of the game, the odds on under 2.5 Goals had continued to shorten and the lay order became matched: Quick Goals - Closing out the trade
He then moved quickly as news filtered through (the trader was not actually watching this game live but instead was keeping his eye on a scorecast service on Sky Sports) that Lyon had taken a 12th minute lead. He therefore needed to close out his Method 2 Goal Demander trade on the French. He did so to the exact criteria set out in this manual - to aim to make 20% profit on your trading stake and to skew the profit towards the team you have backed before the kick off. Lyon was laid at 1.32 for £1200 leaving the trader with a guaranteed profit of £200 for the game: Goal Demander (Method 2) - Closing out the trade
At this point, he was now left in a position of a guaranteed profit of £66.50 on the Liverpool match - the minimum profit of £28.50 on the under 2.5 Goals plus the minimum profit of £38 on the match odds market. In addition, he had made at least £200 on the Lyon game. A guaranteed profit of £266.50 wasn't bad for 15 minutes 'work'. However, the trading was not yet over. He had to wait until the 62nd minute in the Liverpool v Juventus game before getting involved again. A pull back goal by Cannavaro for Juventus made the scoreline 2-1 in favour of the home side. He then opened up a trade on Liverpool to win the match using The Time Bomb system. He placed a £1000 back stake at 1.42 as soon as the market had re-established itself and settled down (the 65th minute): The Time Bomb - Opening up the trade
Within four minutes of the trade being opened, he was able to close out his position with a healthy profit on Liverpool if they went on to win the match. He placed a lay stake at 1.34 for £1020. That meant that he would have won £73.20 if Liverpool went on to win the match or £38 if Juventus won or £40 if it ended in a draw. The screenshot below shows the aggregate profit position taking into account the profit from the previous closed out Goal Demander trade. The Time Bomb - Closing out the trade
The Liverpool game finished 2-1, and a profit of £141.20 before commission was secured. In the Lyon game, Philip Cocu levelled the match with a goal in the 73rd minute and the match finished 1-1, leaving a profit of £200. Day 1 - Tuesday, April 5th 2005 Trading Profit / Loss : £341.20 profit before 5% commission 5.2 Day 2 - Wednesday, April 6th 2005 Two live Champions League matches were taking place - AC Milan v Inter Milan and Chelsea v Bayern Munich. As with the Liverpool v Juventus match the previous night, in the AC Milan game, the draw was very short, and this again put our trader in a position to open up with Method 1 of the Goal Demander. He laid the draw at 2/1 (3.0) to lose no more than £500 (see below). Goal Demander (Method 1) - Opening up the trade
In the Chelsea v Bayern Munich match, the odds on Chelsea were short enough to qualify for Method 2 of the Goal Demander, and our trader placed a £1000 back stake at 1.77 on the home side: Goal Demander (Method 2) - Opening up the trade
Chelsea took the lead with a quick fire goal after 4 minutes through Joe Cole, and following the criteria set out in this manual, the trader could quickly close his position out to leave a very healthy profit. He placed a £1200 lay stake at 1.28 to guarantee a minimum trading profit of 20% of his stake should the draw or Bayern Munich be the eventual result, and a bigger £434 profit should Chelsea go on to win the game (see below). Goal Demander (Method 2) - Closing out the trade
Chelsea did win the match 4-2 so another £434 was added to his Betfair account. NOTE - A single night's successful trading could cover your outlay for this manual. With the early Chelsea goal, it triggered the Quick Goals system, and a £300 back stake was placed on under 2.5 goals at 2.36 (see below). Quick Goals - Opening up the trade
As we have already explained, the odds on under 2.5 goals do decrease rather quickly, and the trader was able to close out the trade within 5 minutes. He placed a £320 lay stake at 2.2 to guarantee a profit (see below). Quick Goals - Closing out the trade
With a healthy profit secured on the Chelsea game, the trader was certain of making a profit on the night. FACT - The trader was guaranteed to make at least £220 profit from the Chelsea game from just nine minutes trading activity. With a profit locked in on the Chelsea game, the trader switched channels to focus on the Milan derby. AC Milan took the lead on the stroke of half time through a goal by Jaap Stam. This led to the odds on the draw lengthening, and the open trade on Method 1 of the Goal Demander could now be closed out for a guaranteed profit. He wanted a pretty much equal profit distribution whatever the outcome so he backed the draw at 4.3 for £175 (see below). Goal Demander (Method 1) - Closing out the trade
The match odds did not change much over the half time period and during the first 15 minutes of the second half. As the game approached the 60th minute, the trader was in a position to open up a trade for The Time Bomb system on AC Milan. A £1000 back stake was placed at the odds of 1.37 (see below). The Time Bomb - Opening up the trade
In the 61st minute the market started to move, and within 4 minutes, the trader was in a position to close out his trade leaving a healthy profit if AC Milan went on to win the match. A £1020 lay stake was placed at the odds of 1.3. That meant that he would have won £64 if AC Milan went on to win the match or £20 if Inter Milan won or £22.50 if it ended in a draw. The screenshot below shows the aggregate profit position taking into account the profit from the previous closed out Goal Demander trade (see below). The Time Bomb - Closing out the trade
AC Milan did win the match 2-0 and another profit was secured, leaving the trader with a £934.20 profit before commission over the 2 days. Day 2 - Wednesday, April 6th 2005 Trading Profit / Loss : £593.00 profit before 5% commission Cumulative Total for Tuesday and Wednesday Trading Profit / Loss : £934.20 profit before 5% commission 5.3 Day 3 - Thursday, April 7th 2005 We contacted the trader on the morning of Day 3 to see how he had been getting on with the formula. He had this to say: "To be honest this formula is so easy to follow, you wouldn't need much knowledge about football or backing and laying to use it. I realise that the previous two nights profits are not necessarily the norm but are a reflection of the kind of profits you can quickly make using the criteria set out in the manual. After just two days trading, I am convinced that over the period of a season you will make good profits using this formula." Matt Finnigan Sportsvision. There was just one game to focus on that evening - Newcastle v Sporting Lisbon in the last 16 of the UEFA Cup. Once again the pre-match odds on the draw triggered Method 1 of the Goal Demander system, and the draw was laid at 3.35 to a maximum liability of £500 (see below). Goal Demander (Method 1) - Opening up the trade
The trader had to wait until the 37th minute, when Alan Shearer opened the scoring for Newcastle, and when the market had re-established itself and settled down, the trade was closed out at a guaranteed profit. The trader placed a £170 back stake on the draw at 4.2 (see below). Goal Demander (Method 1) - Closing out the trade
A guaranteed profit of over £40 was secured on the match but the match odds on Newcastle remained pretty stable until the 60th minute. At that point, the trader once again opened up another trade using The Time Bomb system with a £1000 back stake at odds of 1.37 (see below). The Time Bomb - Opening up the trade
The odds on Newcastle then shortened over the next five minutes, and the trade was closed out to add even more money to the Betfair account. Newcastle was laid for£1040 at odds of 1.31 leaving a healthy profit no matter what the eventual outcome of the game. The screenshot below shows the aggregate profit position taking into account the profit from the previous closed out Goal Demander trade (see below). The Time Bomb - Closing out the trade
Newcastle won the game 1-0 and another good night's 'work' was achieved. Day 3 - Thursday, April 7th 2005 Trading Profit / Loss : £90.60 profit before 5% commission Cumulative Total for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday Trading Profit / Loss : £1024.80 profit before 5% commission Overall Diary Summary The aim of the trader was to make money during a week where live televised games were taking place. This ended up being on European action instead of the Premiership.
A very healthy profit was made over the 3 days and this easily covered the outlay that someone would have to make for this manual. Even if you exclude the two good profits that came from Method 2 of the Goal Demander system, you would still have made good profits on the other low-risk trades. With football almost a seven day a week sport, and played mainly in the evenings, there is a real opportunity to take advantage of the betting exchanges, and The 4 System Formula, to supplement your income.
DISCLAIMER Football Select specifically disclaims any liability, loss or risk incurred as a consequence of the use or misuse, either directly or indirectly, of any information or advice presented in this manual or any of the associated software. The purpose of this manual and associated software is to provide you with information to help you learn to trade using the betting exchanges. Soccergains are in no way liable for your activities or trading that results from any information given in this manual. All trading decisions are made by you. You, and you alone, must decide if and when to trade. Remember that trading is speculative and only trade with capital that you can afford to lose. No part of this manual may be reprinted, reproduced, or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from Football Select . This manual is sold subject to the condition that it shall not, by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, re-sold, hired out or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser.
