Policy towards India and the Kashmir Dispute A study in light of the 2018 manifestos of Pakistani Political Parties1
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oreign relations with neighbors remain among priority agendas in a country’s external policies. It is but natural, therefore, that Pakistan-India relations have attained a vital position in Pakistan’s foreign foreign Policy since its inception. The two neighbors share more than 2000 km long border but the relations relations between between them have been been subjected subjected to deep mistrust and hostility due to the historical factors and specifically the Kashmir dispute that led to the eruption of three full scale wars between them.
Despite having a bilateral framework of comprehensive dialogue, the peace process between Islamabad and Delhi remains at stalemate. Bilateral trade remains at lowest levels against the huge potential. People to people contacts have been discouraging due to unwelcoming attitude towards artists, politician as well as sportsmen, particularly in India after the establishment of BJP’s government in India. Contrary to the Indian politics where bashing Pakistan during political and election campaigns is becoming a popular trend, criticizing India to muster support of the masses does not seem to be an agenda in the election discourse in Pakistan. Neither the popular campaign nor the manifestos of the parties suggest any such trend. The manifestos discuss relations with the neighboring countries but do not go into a disproportionate mention of India. It seems that in view of current Indian conduct, Pakistan’s Pakistan’s political parties’ have reached the understanding that no immediate breakthrough could be expected in the status quo. For some, another reason could be related to the Pakistani context of civil – military relations, – military where politicians would consider it a subject on which military has to have a say in policy formulation. Nevertheless, Nevertheless, despite representing representing different shades, there seems a kind of unanimity of views on several aspects of Pakistan India relations and Kashmir issue among the Pakistani political parties. The following
The situation today is also not normal. The popular freedom movement in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IoK) is being brutally responded by Indian occupied forces; LoC violations from India and cross LoC skirmishes are a regular feature while water disputes are aggravating in spite of some mechanisms which are available under the Indus Water Treaty. These are only some of the key subjects among host of other contentious issues between the two countries. Apart from the dynamics of bilateral relationship, the realignments at regional and global levels are also impacting the relations between the two countries. The deepening relations between Pakistan and China is not a new phenomenon but the growing strategic partnership between India and United States, in the backdrop of US rivalry r ivalry against an emerging China is impacting the regional balance and consequently the already soared relations between India and Pakistan.
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This brief is part of a larger stud y being conducted at IPS to understand the national mood in light of the approach of various Political Parties, participating in the elections 2018, on subjects of important issues r elated to the National Agenda.
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brief review of the parties’ position based on their manifestos and discussed under various headings, would be helpful to understand the complete picture.
meaningful in an atmosphere of mutual respect with all dialogue conducted conducted through diplomatic channels.” (p. 58). Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) doesn’t directly mentions the dialogue but it does talk about conflict resolution and stresses that “for lasting lasting peace within our own region, especially with our neighbor India, conflict resolution and the security route to cooperation is the most viable.” viable.” (p.56) MMA doesn’t mention the dialogue but its statement regarding relations with neighbors mentioned above, does indicate that it endorses the dialogue based on mutual respect. MQM also vows for meaningful, meaningful, sincere and honorable dialogue’ (p.17) dialogue’ (p.17) ANP’s manifesto mentions peaceful negotiations and open dialogue’ dialogue’ as ‘the ‘ peaceful hallmark of bilateral relations.’ relations.’ ( p.27) p.27) Though, ANP vows to give high priority toward the establishment of good relations.
Peaceful coexistence with the neighbors (India)
Peaceful coexistence with neighbors is the one of the major foreign policy goals of Pakistan. Under the framework of peaceful coexistence nothing becomes more significant in South Asian region than PakistanIndia relations. Almost all parties stress on building bui lding peaceful relations with India. PML- N’s N’s manifesto resolves to “strengthen “strengthen the narrative that Pakistan believes in compassion and tolerance at home, while seeking the friendship of all countries, on the basis of mutual respect.” respect.” (p.63) PPP indicates that “normalizing “normalizing relations with India is essential for regional peace and stability.” stability.” (p.58) PTI refers to a “conflict resolution approach towards improving our relation with our eastern and western neighbors.” neighbors.” ( p.56) Mutihida Majlis e Amal (MMA), without openly mentioning India’s name, refers towards developing good relations with neighboring countries based on Peaceful coexistence. (p.5) Mutihida Qaumi Movement (MQM) maintains that it “wants to promote close, friendly and honorable relations with all the countries, especially with the neighboring countries.” countries.” (p.17) Awami National Party (ANP) denotes that the “establishment “establishment of peaceful, cooperative good neighbourly relations with India will (p.26) be given high priority.” priority.” (p.26)
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While Pakistan would not accept any dialogue with preconditions, India insist for initiating the pursuing dialogue on its own terms; in this context, sustainability of the dialogue becomes the most pressing problem to be raised and and explored. Kashmiris Right of Self determination
Generally, the future policies of almost all t he parties reflect harmony on the issue of Kashmir. All the parties seek the resolution of Kashmir dispute under the auspices of United Nations i.e. i .e. in accordance with UN resolutions, supporting the right of selfdetermination of the Kashmiri people. PML-N briefly yet comprehensively comprehensively covers Pakistan’s official stance on Kashmir. The manifesto expresses solidarity and support to the oppressed people of Kashmir along with Palestine and Rohingya, notably in the chapter on National Security. (p.61) PML-N aims to, “resolve the Kashmir Issue Issue based on Pakistan’s principled policy of providing our moral, political and diplomatic support to the people of Indian Occupied Kashmir, in their just and heroic struggle for self- determination, in accordance with UN resolutions.” resolutions.” (p.63) PTI places the ‘resolution of the Kashmir dispute’ among four core national interests. In its external policy, it vows to ‘work on a blueprint towards resolving the Kashmir issue within the parameters of UNSC resolutions.’ resolutions. ’ ( p.56) p.56) PPP maintains within the section on Trade, “without prejudice to UN security Council Resolutions, we support open and safe borders at the Line of Control to unite the Kashmiri people socially and
This above statements reflect a common consensus among the political parties for the importance of building peaceful relations with the neighbours generally and with India particularly given the dangers of hostility between the two nuclear rivals. A respectable and mutually acceptable dialogue mechanism
There seems a consensus in all political parties on the resolution of disputes with India through meaningful, dialogue based on mutual respect. It does indicate that all parties are mindful of the fact that any conditional or imposed solution to the disputes wouldn’t be acceptable. acceptable. The thinking thi nking is reflected in manifestos. manifestos. PML-N vows to “stabilize relations with India through t hrough a sustained dialogue process with the aim of resolving all our differences.” differences.” (p.63) PPP focuses on mutual respect and maintains that ‘talks ‘talks will only be
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economically economically and endorse cross-LoC trade” trade”. It further says “We “We formally believe that the political rights of the Kashmiri People are indispensable for their economic rights and that a just solution for Kashmir should include its full integration to the emerging regional economic cooperation-connectivity paradigm.” paradigm.” (P.60) MMA pledges support for the Kashmiri freedom movement and maintains that the right of self-determination self-determination of Kashmiris in accordance with UN resolutions to be the main pillar of its foreign policy. (p.5) ANP’ does ANP’ does refer to the same thinking in the statements already mentioned in the above section. The manifesto states “All issues including Jammu and Kashmir and other outstanding issues would be solved through peaceful negotiations and open dialogue shall become the hallmark of bilateral bilateral relations …” (p.27) …” (p.27)
occasion declared its intentions to try and isolate Pakistan internationally. Political parties are expected to come up with a resolve to invest in their diplomatic outreach to address such issues. PPP’s manifesto doesn’t fail to refer towards this dimension. In the section of International Institutions, it maintains, “we “we strongly believe that the countries in violations of United Nations Security Council’s resolutions on matters of international peace and security such as Jammu and Kashmir dispute, by no means qualify for the special status in the Security Council” Council” (P.59). Similarly, without naming India it clearly mentions its opposition of NSG membership for non-nuclear states unless it is non-discriminatory. (P.55) Under the heading of Leading the Muslim World , it assumes to utilize Pakistan’s Pakistan’s strategic strength to address the most pressing issue in OIC. It also makes reference to ‘ political political and economic support for self-determination of the Kashmiri people’ people’ (P.62). As indicated above MMA has pledged to make the freedom of Kashmir an important pillar of the foreign policy. (p.5)
The above aspects being the key issues regarding PakIndia relations have been covered by all parties with little divergences. Based on the excerpts from manifestos, it is logical to conclude that while harmony on the fundamentals of the issues is clear, the practical approaches of the parties may differ from each other. There are other important aspects, discussed in the following, that required policy statement from the parties and have been reflected upon in one or the other manifesto.
Trade Relations
Economic relations signify another important area where reflection by the parties is expected. PPP does refer to the development of ‘warmer trade relations’ with India. It further f urther says, we believe that energy and trade connectivity between Pakistan and India can provide solutions solutions to our region’s shared challenge to (p.58) poverty alleviation.’ alleviation.’ (p.58)
Water Dispute with India
Indian construction of controversial controversial dams on western rivers, is the issue that needs vigilance as well as viable solution to avoid the worsening of water crisis in Pakistan and to deter the moves by Indian leadership to block the water considering the recent threat of ‘water blockage’ blockage’ by Indian PM Modi.
Though economic relations is an area that needs deeper deliberation keeping in view the hostile relations between the two states and the disruption of economic activity in the wake of disturbed peace process. It appears that parties have ignored the subject in the manifestos impliedly conveying that warmer trade relations with India is a distant dream and cannot be achieved unless a genuinely meaningful dialogue process gets start.
While focusing on energy, MMA touches on taking measures to fill the gaps in Indus Water treaty that led to the illegal construction of Indian dams. It also talks about adopting a better legal and administrative strategy to deal with the threat of water terrorism from India. (p.6) PPP also reflects upon the issue stating that “Pakistan must be guaranteed its right to water as a lower riparian, and any Indian construction that affects water flows must be subject to mutually acceptable safeguards under relevant agreement. (p. 58)
Defense and Security
India is continuously modernizing its military and strategic capabilities. Pakistan also needs to enhance capabilities to ensure minimum credible deterrence against all spectrum of threats. PTI indicates towards this direction, too. The manifesto says that the “credibility of Pakistan’s full spectrum deterrence deterrence will be ensured.” ensured.” It further says that the party “will move
Diplomatic Outreach
Indian diplomacy is very proactive in enhancing its global profile. Indian leadership has on several
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CONCLUSION
substantively on the bilateral strategic dialogue with India encompassing all aspects of the strategic nuclear deterrence so as to prevent a spiraling nuclear arms race in the region.” (p.58) region.” (p.58) PML- N N says says “resource “resource fully the military doctrine of full spectrum deterrence against India’s colossal military buildup military buildup””. (p.61) With reference to nuclear capability PML (N) promises to maintain status as a responsible and credible nuclear state. The manifesto also specifically mentions “Attend war games and visit troops deployed at frontline borders”. About the Nuclear, PPP vows to “bring fresh focus, vigor and substance to Pakistan’s nuclear security paradigm …”. …”. (P.57) PPP regards “Pakistan’s “Pakistan’s hard earned nuclear deterrence as a cornerstone of its national and regional security and stability equilibrium”. (P.55) MMA also pledges protection of the nuclear capability of the country. (p.5)
The upcoming political leadership would need to formulate a strategy focusing on strengthening and sustaining the prevailing consensus/ harmony on Kashmir issue as well as relations with India. There should be emphasis on the resolution of disputes through peaceful means and negotiations with India. However, as discussed earlier, owing to the Indian domestic political dynamics, at least until next elections in India (due in 2019) are held one cannot expect any change in Delhi’s hawkish Delhi’s hawkish policy towards Pakistan. Keeping this in view, it is necessary to work on self preparedness. preparedness. It is the time to communicate communicate with and influence international as well as the Indian public opinion. Recently, in June 2018, United Nations Human Rights Commission published a report on gross human rights violations in IoK. It, is the first ever report coming from the forum of UN and thus is very pertinent in the context of awakening the conscious of international community. Same goes for the water dispute with with India. However, preparation preparation in this area requires both physical initiatives on ground to exploit the opportunities available to Pakistan under the Indus Water Commission as well as better legal preparations while contesting anything under the dispute resolution mechanisms mechanisms allowed in the Treaty. Manifestos of the political parties have broadly discussed terrorism and related issues yet except for MMA this has not been touched in Pakistan-India context, while India most frequently raises this issue. Countering the Indian narrative of terrorism at international level and Indian sponsorship of terrorism at domestic level, is and would continue to be a challenge for new government in Pakistan.
People to People contacts
Improvement of people to people contacts is a long term goal to enhance the trust deficit gradually. None of the parties mentions people to people contacts except PPP which stresses by saying “easing travel restrictions especially for tourism, medical treatments, student exchanges, artists and businessmen.” businessmen.” (p.58) Climate and Environmental Security
Climate change and environmental security are the most pressing issues in global contemporary challenges. Referring to the challenges of ‘water stress, flash flood and smog,’ PPP stresses for the cooperation between the two countries to resolve the challenges of climate change and environmental security. (p.58) It is indeed a pertinent area that needs attentions due to the impact of Indian energy projects.
Prepared by: Waqar un Nisa Research Coordinator Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), Islamabad.
For queries: Syed Nadeem Farhat, Senior Research Coordinator,
[email protected] | www.ips.org.pk
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