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11-10-2010, 09:08 PM

60minuteman Se nior Memb er

#1 Join Date: N ov 2010 Posts: 157

Supply & Demand Trading Jou rnal

In an effort to improve my trading i have decided to start a journal of all my trades.... DISCLA IMER: THESE ARE NOT MY IDEAS, This is something i have learned and rings true to me, I can not guarantee it works, thats what we are he re for... to find out! the system: I am currently in demo with 3 systems, all 3 work on the basis of supply and demand, you can call it support and resistance if you like, theyre the same.... but, its no good just picking any old, s/d you need to strong ones! So how do we decipher s&d, and what makes it strong....? well first it is important that you grasp this idea.... only 1 thing moves the market, not the news, not fibs, not indicators, not trend lines.... the only thing that will move price on your charts are orders to buy and orders to sell.....(i dont want to discuss this, its true).. Price on your charts is a visual of those orders, at this price there was 100 orders to buy, and 1 to sell.... which way is price going to go? up...of course! here's a chart:


we can see price went from 3 to 2, at point 2, what happened to price? it reversed quickly and dropped strongly... why? because there was no more buy ers and lots of sellers.... who do we think was buying just before price peaked?... i bet it wasnt the banks! or institutions.... it was novice traders... "the biggest mistake novice traders make is buying into a high and selling into a low" i was part of that group.... (These are the traders we want to take the money from....) So we can say at area 2 there is a strong imbalance between supply and demand... When price returned to that level at area 1, based on what we have just learnt, what can we assume will happen? ... exactly price will fall (not always, but you only need to be right at least 50% of the time to win with this system) Ok well we can see if you had set your short the re, you would have made a tidy profit!... now go check your own charts and see this playt out time and time again... RULES: These aren't really rules, but if finding the strong s&d areas is vital, we need some way of determining if it is strong or weak... Thankfully that is easy too... 1. The areas have to be : rally-base-drop or drop-base-rally youre looking for places where price turned..... its only minor s& d if price was moving up, went sideways, then continued up.... rall y-base-rally is no good! By all means note these areas, but theyre not what you are looking for... look at area 2 and 1 on the chart again.... rally-base-drop 2. how long did price stay at this area.... a short time is good! this shows there is a big imbalance between s&d 3. how did price leave this area... gap is excellent... but rare.. so we are looking for a strong move away.... area 1 and 2 on the chart again... 4. how far did it go.... this is your profitability area 2 dropped about 350 pips... we look for at least 3/1 profit, so a sl at area 1 of 100 pips would of been ok... 5. you also want to have a decent amount of time between prices visit to an area, because obviously if price is constantly hanging around the area, then its not meeting rules 2, 3 and 4.


ENTRIES: for entries we need to draw in our s&d zones, the conventional teaching is to draw a single line, but thats just not realistic, price isnt going to turn right on the exact pip! so we draw a zone... look at chart 2 Attached Images 1.jpg (19.2 K B, 29 views)

Last edited b y 60minutem an; 11-11-2010 at 01:35 PM.

11-10-2010, 09:15 PM

#2



Join Date: N ov 2010 Posts: 157

ok here i have drawn in the top and bottom lines of my supply zone.. you are just trying to capture the range of prices whe re price turned... its subjective, but practice.... i am

OK, SO WHEN DO WE PULL THE TRIGGER? this is the bit im always trying to find on threads i read, so ive put it in big letters for you... there are 2 approache s... conservative and gun ho! ... im a gun ho trader, unfortunately for me.... but its upto you! conservative is to wait for price to come back to the area and show some signal that it has tur ned.... bollinger bands, fibs, whatever you like, if it makes you feel better, do it.. gun ho! you just wait for price to enter the area, or even set a limit order on your line....


Attached Images 2.jpg (19.8 K B, 11 views)


11-10-2010, 09:28 PM


#3 Join Date : N ov 2 010 Posts: 157


STOP LOSS for your sl you use the top line (or bottom when going long) of your s&d zone

TARGET upto you, i tend to take profit as price moves towards minor s/r zones, but this area im experimenting with, and hopefully we can explore some ideas as this thread grows.... or dies...lol

11-10-2010, 09:32 PM



ok, now youre saying... thats only 1 system... yes i know.... the others will come.... soon fir st lets see if we can make this a winning system.... I promise to post all my trades here that use this system, i will not cherry pick... i dont need anyone to think im a great trader, i need to be one.... any support is greatly appreciated...

11-10-2010, 09:53 PM


ok just to get the ball rolling, he re is the first trade i ever took using this system.... and its a che rry (if i was going to pick 1lol) my sd zones were set on the daily (by the way this works on any tf) i entered on the first touch of the s&d zone.... result +428






11-10-2010, 10:02 PM

#6 Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: España Posts: 5 7

20pips Memb er

Nice, I wondered what supply/demand zones were. I sometimes trade something similar but use a line, MA or PA bar, often missing the trade because it didn't quite reach the trigger point or look right, I quite like the zone idea. Last edited b y 20pips; 11-10-2 010 at 10:04 PM.

11-10-2010, 10:08 PM


here is my Eu trades from today, 2 longs BE and +118






11-10-2010, 10:24 PM


gu long from today, from now on i will post entries and then results, just wanted you to get a visual idea of what im talking about





Last edited b y 60minutem an; 11-11-2010 at 09:56 AM.

11-10-2010, 11:38 PM



ok, important point here, that i never mentioned... when you look back from price now, to find a relevent supply and demand zone, you never cut through candles.... never!... dont forget!

11-10-2010, 11:54 PM

#10 Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 3 4

franci s galvin Memb er

best of luck with it subscribing

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11-11-2010, 09:49 AM

60minuteman S enior Mem ber

#11 Join Date: N ov 2 010 Posts: 157

ok heres my entry into gu short, ive marked my sd zones, see how i put my stop just above the outer zone..... good job, came real close to sl... went to +40 and i have taken ha lf profit there... see how it has paused he re.... well if you look left from price you can see a minor s/d zone (good place to set tp's) how do we know it is a minor sd zone... because it is rally base rally....



Last edit ed b y 60m inute man; 11-1 1-2010 at 09:51 A M.

11-11-2010, 11:00 AM

bushpippen Ju nior Mem ber


Good stuff 60mm,ill be following your journal and all the best to you,may you become a good trader in no time!!

11-11-2010, 11:53 AM



thanks Bp... are you still steadily increasing your account? really enjoyed your thread when i was starting out

11-11-2010, 04:12 PM

RMSTrader

#14 Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: A ustin, TX Posts: 47

Memb er

Fantastic thread 60mm! Looking forward to following your progress. I'm conservative. I look for CBL entries only, but your method will hopefully help me pinpoint those higher probability pairs to trade. Thanks for sharing on this thread. It is a little tedious for me to follow stuff in the chat room....

11-12-2010, 09:12 AM

60minuteman



S enior Mem ber

ok Gu trade... this is exactly what you need to look for if you want to trade this system, the entry meets all the criteria, with bette r management i could of won more pips for sure, but im happy with 173.... how many of these do you need a week to win in forex?



11-12-2010, 11:09 AM

#16 Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: Lithuania Posts: 8 Se nd a message via Skyp e™ t o Rokas

Rokas Ju nior Me mb er

Hi 60 very interesting thr ead. I never thought that you were that risky

If you don’t mind I have couple questions…

1. You wrote to never ever cut thr ough candles, but to place a zone you would ne ed to cut at least through wicks, so maybe no cutting of the the body? In your recent gu trade you cut both wick and body. And if its possible maybe you could write your reason for picking lower le vel of the zone. 2. What difference do you see with putting one big lot and putting 2 lots at different time? I always though of multi lots as a way of increasing BE levels and increasing R:R ratio by reducing risk. But you don’t reduce risk after a trade, you increase it a lot. And why second lot was twice as big as first one? 3. What do you think of not letting a winne r tur n into a big loser? 4. As you said before putting a single line and hope that price will turn at that point is just too optimistic so a zone is a superior thing to do, but isn’t it a same thing as putting a limit order at start of the zone? 5. Do you trade with a trend? Well that’s more than couple que stions… to be written trading plan…

I am really happy to see anothe r person writing a thread that is very similar to my yet

11-12-2010, 02:24 PM

#17 Join Dat e: No v 2010 Posts: 157


have a look at this rokas... Quote:

Originally Posted by Rokas Hi 60 very interesting thread. I ne ver thought that you were that risky

If you don’t mind I have couple questions…


1. You wrote to never ever cut through candles, but to place a zone you would need to cut at least through wicks, so maybe no cutting of the the body? In your recent gu trade you cut both wick and body. And if its possible maybe you could write your reason for picking lower level of the zone . have a look at this rokas, i dont think i explained it very well



2. What difference do you see with putting one big lot and putting 2 lots at different time? I always though of multi lots as a way of increasing BE levels and increasing R:R ratio by reducing risk. But you don’t reduce risk after a trade, you increase it a lot. And why second lot was twice as big as first one? both lots were the same size, but i took half off the first lot whe n i was r/r 1/1.. i havent worked out the best way to manage these trades rokas, i need some help from someone like grav or ty men, but clearly if you get that bit right also these can be very big winner s

3. What do you think of not letting a winner tur n into a big loser? obviously thats not good, but whatever you do, you need to make sure that you give your trades a chance to go to their potential, because then you only need to be right 50% of the time.. again it is a trade management issue , im trying to learn!

4. As you said before putting a single line and hope that price will turn at that point is just too optimistic so a zone is a superior thing to do, but isn’t it a same thing as putting a limit order at start of the zone ? sure and i do use limit orders at lines to enter in this system sometimes, the zone s just give you a visualization of the area where supply and demand were imbalanced before, therefore it is highly probable that the se conditions will be true ne xt time... cant guasrantee it, but if you were right 50% of the time you would make money

5. Do you tr ade with a trend? i pay no interest in trend at all... he re's why... why do most novice traders lose mone y in forex... because they buy after a sustaine d period of buying and they sell after a susta ined period of selling... for a trand to exist (according to the rules) you need 3 touches of that trend line... why do you want to get in now...? the basis of this system is that you are trading the way institutional and bank traders trade, taking the money from the novice trader.. have a look at the trades i have posted, see how price will often make a last surge up before turning down in our s/d zone.... who do you think is entering with the trend here?... yes , novice tr aders

Well that’s more than couple questions… trading plan…

11-12-2010, 03:33 PM


I am really happy to see another person wr iting a thread that is very similar to my yet to be written



Week su mmary

eu long -40 eu long +118 gu long +102 eu long -70 gu short +132 gj short +112 gj short again... still open Total so far = +354 ok, last trade for gj stopped out -35 total = +319 Last edit ed b y 60m inute man; 11-1 2-2010 at 03:49 PM.

11-12-2010, 06:21 PM

Rokas Ju nior Me mb er

#19 Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: Lithuania Posts: 8 Se nd a message via Skyp e™ t o Rokas

Great weekly results CONGRATS Little more niewbie ideas… If you look at 1 s/d zone in 1h tf it looks good and tradable but if you take a look at 4h its just a drop base drop and the second zone is rally base drop a very good zone visually the only problem from taking short from 4h would be the point that PA hasn’t moved a lot from that point in time. The TP points are roughly the same from 1h and 4h so the time trade reache s its goal is the same. If you look at daily both (1,2) s/d zones has little/no value, on the other hand 1,6300 looks as superb s/d zone on most lower TF. So wouldn’t it be a confluence of timeframes? (How stupid does it sound). Any way my point is shouldn’t strength of s/d zone (s/r line) depend on the TF it wa s drawn? For the trend part I was referring to higher TF tr end, like the 4h trend for 1h or daily trend for 4h. Graviton wrote A LOT about that subject.

11-12-2010, 10:18 PM

60minuteman



S enior Mem ber

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rokas Great weekly results CONGRATS Little more niewbie ideas… If you look at 1 s/d zone in 1h tf it looks good and tradable but if you take a look at 4h its just a drop base drop and the second zone is rally base drop a very good zone visually the only problem from taking short from 4h would be the point that PA hasn’t moved a lot from that point in time. The TP points are roughly the same from 1h and 4h so the time trade reaches its goal is the same. If you look at daily both (1,2) s/d zones has little/no value , on the other hand 1,6300 looks as superb s/d zone on most lower TF. So wouldn’t it be a confluence of timeframes? (How stupid does it sound). Any way my point is shouldn’t strength of s/d zone (s/r line) depend on the TF it was drawn? For the trend part I was referring to higher TF trend, like the 4h trend for 1h or daily trend for 4h. Graviton wrote A LOT about that subject. ok, i will answer you with what i know Rokas, wether I am right or not I dont know... you could have the sweetest looking entry on 1hr that fits all the rules, but on the daily it could be just the retrace of 1 candle.... does that mean you cant trade it? no.... you can trade it... supply and demand is taking place on all tf's..... if you find a good s/d zone on the daily, im sure within that trade you could find 2 or 3 on the 4hr..... my e/chf short went 450 pips on 1hr tf, but there was a 90 pip retrace during that, and i bet if i had looked at the 15m tf there were trades long.... i always draw my zones on the same tf i take the trade on... i havent thought of say drawing the m on 4hr and entering on the 1hr.... im not sure how that would work?... With regards finding a higher tf trend and say in a daily down trend only looking for shorts on the 4hr and 1hr ... we would be missing the point!... This system is built from the knowledge of how the big institutional traders trade... if they know there is strong demand at 1.600 and it has been in a downtrend for a week... what are they going to do....? well they know that all the big guns have already made the ir shorts, and they also know that novice traders usually enter after a long period of selling or buy ing... so they will enter long anyway.... they make their money by transfering the funds from the novice traders into their pockets...

Im probably not qualified to cover this really, but by sticking to the rules as i was told i am getting good results.... and sam was very clear...


you dont need trend lines, fibs or indicators and ignore the ne ws and expert advisors, just tr ade supply and demand as you see it on your charts the key to wining with this strat is to find strong s/d,

I can tell this has caught your imagination rokas, like it did me when i first encountered this way of trading.... i suggest you find the key points on your charts over the weekend, make some notes, or set some alerts, and try taking some on demo ne xt week... just remember dont go chasing your sl up behind price... it wont work... set your targets and if you make it, take profit, or just close the trade.... tight stops does not work Last edit ed b y 60m inute man; 11-1 2-2010 at 10:24 PM.

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Page 3 of 12 < 1 2 3 4 5 > Last » Thread Tools 11-13-2010, 03:19 AM

Display M odes #21

Join Dat e: Oct 2010 Location: USA Mic higan Posts: 38

Needy Adminis trator

I too will be watching and testing, You've been doing well from we see here and on chat.

11-13-2010, 09:32 AM



thanks needy, from this week i will start posting my demo account balance too, so we can see if we can grow an account us ing this system, and work out an optimum system for profit!

11-13-2010, 09:53 AM

#23




quite a few people asking me about higher tf trends, well its not something that is done by sam seiden,(edit i made a mistake with this, sam does use the higher tfs, but not in terms of trend, only in terms of supply and demand) but something he does utilise is the us dollar index... here is the daily chart and we can see that it is in a downtrend and moving into an area of supply, so we could say that looking for longs in the dollar pairs may well pay off... if it was also in oversold, we could add more weight to this think ing... lets see what happens monday! i havent really tested this, but sam hasnt put me wrong yet! by the way if you would like to see some webinars on supply and demand trading, they can be found at fxstreet website, I also need to point out, this is all my interpretation of what i have been taught, i may well be wrong, I am no expert and you really should go and look at the lessons for your self




11-13-2010, 01:12 PM

Rokas Ju nior Mem ber

#24 Join Date : Oct 2010 Location: Lit huan ia Posts: 8 Send a me ssage via Sk ype™ to Rokas

Yea I am well in the imaginationland of forex trading… Our opinions are very similar just some concepts are way off One of them is questioned letting a winner turn into loser. I consider this one of the key points of solid trade management. Any way subject of s/d (s/r) is very wide and there is a lot of good literatur e (free) for example Tymens omnibus p4-18 also http://www.forex4noobs.com/forex-pulse/forex-ebooks.php is a good read. What do you think of posting your charts with trade plan for next week for comparison reasons? Ps this video was a bit turnoff for Sam… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glUE2B_-7rs

11-13-2010, 02:25 PM



Quote:

Originally Posted by Rokas Yea I am well in the imaginationland of forex trading… Our opinions are very similar just some concepts are way off One of them is questioned letting a winner tur n into loser. I consider this one of the key points of solid trade management. Any way subject of s/d (s/r) is very wide and there is a lot of good literature (free) for example Tymens omnibus p4-18 also http://www.forex4noobs.com/forex-pulse/forex-ebooks.php is a good read. What do you think of posting your charts with trade plan for next week for comparison reasons? Ps this video was a bit turnoff for Sam… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glUE2B_-7rs on the letting a winner become a loser, if you think about it clearly the important thing is to get the correct r/r.... if you close all your winners at 1/1 then you need to win more than 50% to gain in your account... the interesting thin is how many of my winners have been losers, that became big winners achieving the desired 1/3 r/r... as with anything i like to stick to all the rules in demo and record the results, even if they dont quite make sense to me... always keeping in the front of my mind that i am a beginner and know nothing!


havent read that ebook, will do this weekend, thanks! great idea and something i planne d to do, i will be posting all my best set ups i will be watching next week over the weekend... as for forex on the internet, i am sceptical about it all, but thats the beauty of demo accounts.... test and record! I still think whatever way you trade the most important thing is risk / reward...... lets be more methodical with the figures over this month and see ..... good luck rokas and do let me know if you take any trades using s/d or evenpost them on here.... update: after doing a bit more study it appears sam does use higher tf's but only in respect to supply and demand, not with regards trend.... Last edited b y 60minutem an; 11-13-2010 at 09:33 PM.

11-13-2010, 07:28 PM


Ok here's a few set ups im watching next we ek, theres lots more and some are already in the zone






11-13-2010, 07:28 PM


and one more



11-15-2010, 05:49 PM

jdash Ju nior Mem ber

#28 Join Date: Oct 2010 Loc ation: philip pi nes Posts: 6

Subscribing!

11-18-2010, 08:27 PM

#29




ok firstly, sorr y for no action on the thread, but i have been trading! I know I promised to post lots of details and all trades on here, and i will try, but i also have a restaurant to run 6 days a week... i will do my best! DONT TRADE THE NEWS.... though i would add that, because it got me bad this week.... thank god for demo... i am still learning!!!

ok, onto some trades... 1. this is GA sunday night opening, straight into an excellent set up, these entries stick out like sore thumbs, so if you are unsure, just move on, there are loads of entries all the time on all time frames


11-18-2010, 08:46 PM


2. NU 30m tf short +80 pips




just want to go over the rules again.... to find your S/D zone.... 1.rall y - base - drop or drop - base - rally ... so on your charts that looks like a v shape or upside down v 2. price should not stay at the top for long, a few candles is best... remember if there are lots more sellers than buyers price will not hang around.... this is what we mean by a strong IMBALANCE in supply and demand 3. price should of dropped quickly away from thi s zone... 4. price should of dropped a long way. 5. on the FIRST return to this level you look to enter n.b i will scan the other tf's to be sure im not selling into some strong demand on a highe r tf.... mark them out on your charts, its as easy as drawing 2 horizontal lines

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Dis play Modes

11-19-2010, 12:52 AM

ardy Ju nior Mem ber

#31 Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 11

Inspiring

60mm, this is very inspiring. At this stage of my trading, with the frequent setbacks, I need to see someone succeeding at this. Gives us all hope. Ev en though I don't trade this system myself, I see many things I can take away that will be applicable to my system. And if you continue with these kind of results, I might have to try this on my own... Keep it up.

#32

11-19-2010, 12:54 AM

ardy Ju nior Mem ber

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 11

Failed trades

Oh, and post some failed trades as well .... I think we learn as much, if not more, from the ones that got away.... That is if you have any :-)

11-19-2010, 01:27 AM


#33 Join Dat e: Nov 2 010 Posts: 157


ok ardy i will post a fail now..

11-19-2010, 01:37 AM



ok here is an eu trade that didnt win... but still, look at the loss... some people think you have to risk alot to trade this system, but compared to the size of the wins.... its a good r/r

so why did price not turn here? well demand had left from this price.... it happens... stick to the rules and you will make pips with this system... but dont believe me, demo it!



11-19-2010, 01:44 AM



thought i would post this.... im a lousy teache r, but this explains the rules very clearly AN IMPORTANT RULE TO CONSIDER WHEN SCANNING FOR TRADING OPPORTUNITIES IN FOREX Type: Webinar

Expert: Sam Seiden, Stocks, Futures, Forex and Options Trader at Online Trading Academy Moderator: Maud Gilson Start: Wed, Jan 6 2010, 12:00 GMT End: Wed, Jan 6 2010, 12:45 GMT Participants: 75 pre-registered participants Summary: During this session, we will go over one of the most important rules when searching for low risk and high reward trading opportunities in F orex. It is a rule often overlooked yet it is a crucial piece of the puzzle for successful Forex traders. http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/ses...b-d2c7be57b01d

11-19-2010, 07:29 PM


ok, i promised to start posting my account so we can see it grow..... or shrink!!!! so although i am a week late i did manage to get round to printing todays off.... better late than never i suppose

#36 Join Dat e: Nov 2010 Posts: 157


11-22-2010, 12:17 PM


ok, mondays trades... +10% account that will do for the day, will post charts...

#37 Joi n Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 157


11-22-2010, 12:34 PM


GU trade monday



11-22-2010, 12:35 PM


gj trade monday... look how easy these are to pick



11-22-2010, 03:42 PM

RMSTrader Member

Great stuff, 60mm!!

#40 Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 47


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Page 5 of 12 « First < 3 4 5 6 7 > Last » Thread Tools 11-22-2010, 04:32 PM


ECHF trade, again easy pips, small risk, big gains....

Dis play Modes #41 Joi n Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 157



11-22-2010, 04:36 PM



EU trade... before this win i entered at the supply zone just below, again my most common mistake... entering too soon, i lost on the first trade but re-entered when i woke in the morning... if you find 2 supply or 2 demand areas on top of each other, this is considered very strong so i had no worries about taking this second trade



11-23-2010, 12:53 PM

fartist Memb er


Hey 60mm, nice trades going on! Could you post more of sam's videos which you personally think are critical to learning his method? I've seen the one you posted and it helped heaps! But are there more? heh

11-23-2010, 01:02 PM



Heres 21 more sam seiden webinars... http://www.consult-llewellyn.com/fx/?p=184

11-23-2010, 01:02 PM

fartist Memb er


thanks 60mm, anyone in order that i should start watching first?

11-23-2010, 01:28 PM


Quote :

Originally Posted by fartist



thanks 60mm, anyone in order that i should start watching first?

watch them all fartist, its a simple idea but is fundamental to trading in any market... good luck, and post some wins/losses on here

11-23-2010, 01:52 PM

fartist Memb er


Ok no problem! Thanks for sharing, will post some the tr ades for sure

11-24-2010, 11:36 AM



2 more trades from Tue sday night, had 3 SL hits today trying to pick the reverse on the Eur o, with hindsight today was a day not to trade because of the extreme news...



#49


11-25-2010, 01:27 AM Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 49

fartist Memb er

Hi 60mm, so for your trades when do you set to BE? Or do you just set a TP and wait for PA to either hit your SL or TP. thanks!

11-25-2010, 10:02 AM



Quote :

Originally Posted by fartist Hi 60mm, so for your trades when do you set to BE? Or do you just set a TP and wait for PA to either hit your SL or TP. thanks!

Often the se trades go your way straight away so I dont move my stop loss, Sam seidens rule is Take Profit or Stop Loss... Sometimes of cour se they may go 20 and stall, and if i have to go away from the screen I will tighten my stop, or perhaps if there is red flag news out... The important thing to remember is , and this has been extensively tested, it is the R/R of this system that ensures you make profit in the good times, and in the bad times, so dont try and go with too tight a SL, set your SL as per the rules and if youre in, youre in!!!


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11-25-2010, 12:06 PM

fartist Member


Ahh okay! I'll take note of that

11-26-2010, 11:57 PM

60minuteman Senior Member

#52 Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 157

Last trades of the week for me, wasnt going to trade today but woke up to see 2 perfect set ups and bagged myself another 200 odd pips... I had to go out and leave these trades, was going to close them but opted instead for a tight sl, both stopped out but for good profits happy days!!! so i think it is fair to say, im either the luckiest git alive or picking strong supply and demand is an excellent way of finding low risk, high probability trades..... you decide



another £280 to my account...


if anyone else is trying this, post some charts and we can all learn from each other Last edited by 60minut eman; 11-27-2010 at 12:04 AM.

11-27-2010, 05:26 AM

Tyler Vegas Junior Member

looking fantastic 60. what is your win ratio like? and how do you improve it? what rules do you consider most important to taking one of these trades?



again, well done

11-27-2010, 10:23 AM



Quot e:

Originally Posted by Tyler Vegas looking fantastic 60. what is your win ratio like? and how do you improve it? what rules do you consider most important to taking one of these trades? again, well done Thamks Tyler.... Win Rate is 70%... The most important rules and the way to insure a high win rate is the enhancers: Trade enhancers: Selecting supply and demand zones: 1.Pick rally, base, drop or drop, base, rally - this looks like a sharp peak on your charts, or a deep sharp V-shape 2. price dropped fast from the peak. 3. price dropped a long way. 4. price was at the peak for a short time only. Entries: 1. this is the first return to the supply or demand zone. 2. price rallied strongly into the supply zone, or even better, gapped into the supply zone 3. price has been away from the supply zone for a long time Other things to look for: 1. make sure that you have at least 1/3 risk/reward, ideally 1/4... count the pips of the drop from the supply zone last time and divide


that by your stop loss, if the result is above 3 this is a good trade. 2. if entering from supply on the 1hr, check that the 4hr and daily are not in demand....

The hardest thing is entering long when you see price plummeting strongly short... it feels wrong at first, but you need to remember this, The forex market is just a transfer of funds from 1 set of traders to another, this is how oney is made in forex, so we are looking to take the money from the novice trader... we can find these traders easily on our charts. Novice traders make 2 mistakes over and over again.... "they buy after a sustained period of buying and into areas of supply..." and vice versa... so when you see those strong rallies or drops into our areas of supply and demand, we know it will be easy to take this money.... institutional traders know this and trade this way too...

11-27-2010, 10:50 AM

Tyler Vegas


Junior Member

that post pretty much wraps it up nice and simple. thanks!

11-27-2010, 04:18 PM

60minuteman Senior Member Upcoming webinar

SUPPLY AND DEMAND STRATEGY APPLICATION Type: Webinar Register for this Session Expert: Sam Seiden, Stocks, Futures, Forex and Options Trader at Online Trading Academy Moderator: Vicky Ferrer Start: Tue, Nov 30 2010, 16:00 GMT End: Tue, Nov 30 2010, 16:45 GMT Participants: 76 pre-registered participants Summary: During this session, we will apply the supply / demand strategy information that we learned during our last session. http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/ses...3-e8f5ecee780e



11-28-2010, 01:04 AM

fartist Member


Quot e:

Originally Posted by 60minuteman Thamks Tyler.... Win Rate is 70%... The most important rules and the way to insure a high win rate is the enhancers: Trade enhancers: Selecting supply and demand zones: 1.Pick rally, base, drop or drop, base, rally - this looks like a sharp peak on your charts, or a deep sharp V-shape 2. price dropped fast from the peak. 3. price dropped a long way. 4. price was at the peak for a short time only. Entries: 1. this is the first return to the supply or demand zone. 2. price rallied strongly into the supply zone, or even better, gapped into the supply zone 3. price has been away from the supply zone for a long time Other things to look for: 1. make sure that you have at least 1/3 risk/reward, ideally 1/4... count the pips of the drop from the supply zone last time and divide that by your stop loss, if the result is above 3 this is a good trade. 2. if entering from supply on the 1hr, check that the 4hr and daily are not in demand....

The hardest thing is entering long when you see price plummeting strongly short... it feels wrong at first, but you need to remember this,


The forex market is just a transfer of funds from 1 set of traders to another, this is how oney is made in forex, so we are looking to take the money from the novice trader... we can find these traders easily on our charts. Novice traders make 2 mistakes over and over again.... "they buy after a sustained period of buying and into areas of supply..." and vice versa... so when you see those strong rallies or drops into our areas of supply and demand, we know it will be easy to take this money.... institutional traders know this and trade this way too... Thanks for the guidelines 60mm, indeed very useful. I'll post a chart of eur chf i took earlier this week, which resulted in BE. Good trading mate!

11-28-2010, 04:12 AM

fartist Member



Exited at BE. Prior to that i had r:r of 1:1 and thus set it to BE and decided to let it run. BE got hit later on. Not sure if its a good SD zone as price appears to be consolidating on the 3rd circle area. Last edited by fartist; 11-28-2010 at 04:1 4 AM.

11-28-2010, 07:27 AM




Quot e:

Originally Posted by fartist

Exited at BE. Prior to that i had r:r of 1:1 and thus set it to BE and decided to let it run. BE got hit later on. Not sure if its a good SD zone as price appears to be consolidating on the 3rd circle area. I'd say it was a good trade to take, except for the exceptional circumstances of the euro last week, I got caught trying to long the euro too..


anyother time I believe you would of won with this trade.... also, the third circle was the best entry, because at this point price had been away from the zone the longest time The entry fitted with all our enhancers and there was a strong kick out of the zone last time, sure it had been back here a few times but there was a long time since its last visit to the price.... not sure if i will trade the euro next week, the only one i have seen is a possible short on ea.. maybe the thing to do with the euro for now...i will probably try to avoid the euro this week.. Last edited by 60minut eman; 11-28-2010 at 07:56 AM.

11-28-2010, 09:24 AM

#60 Join Dat e: Oct 2010 Location: Lithuania Posts: 8 Send a message via Skype™ to Rokas

Rokas Ju nior Memb er

Hi 60 thx for webinar, registered Was wondering do you record mae or mfe and other stuff like profit efficiency, if so what are you averages?

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11-28-2010, 09:52 AM



honestly Rokas, i dont even know what they are...lol Really need to do some work on money management, but it is an area that is hard to find good information on, if you have any tips I would appreciate your input! profit wise im close to 25% up for 3 weeks trading, wether thats good or bad, i dont know? F or me its certailny good enough! Short term I will focus on cutting out big losses, ive had a few multilot trades hit sl where i was just being lazy and not thinking things through... the re is definitely scope to improve on this... also i haven't really taken any 4hr entries yet, i have been taking big pips off the 1hr and in theory the wins and r/r could be even greater on the long tf's. see you in the webinar!

11-28-2010, 11:51 AM

fartist Memb er



Good to hear you have found some sucess with this method 60mm! I will continue forward testing this method and post up charts to review together.

11-28-2010, 03:35 PM

Rokas Ju nior Mem ber

#63 Join Date : Oct 2010 Location: Lit huan ia Posts: 8 Send a me ssage via Sk ype™ to Rokas

Read up Gravitons pdf he wrote A LOT about multi lots, optimization, money management, overtrading and so on really I cant imagine that any 1 who read that pdf was disappointed or though that time was wasted. Heres link http://www.4shared.com /document/kc-EpXqo/MTTFTv1.html

11-28-2010, 05:38 PM

Graviton

#64 Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: Houston, Texas Posts: 169

Senior Memb er

60MM, I took 7 of these trades over the last 10 days of trading. 5 of those trades were a combination of s/d trades taken whe n a CBL formed. All 7 trades were winners. Using the CBL allowed me to enter the trades at a good time and not jump in too early while the price still had some move to make against me within or near the identified zone. This is a small sample, and I'd usually want to see about 20 winning trades before judging a system, but it looks very promising. I particularly like combining the s/d with the CBL as it he lps time the entry. One thing I'd offer caution about is being hardheaded about any system. Most systems work well in some situations and not in othe rs. It's important to understand when your particular system works and whe n it doesn't. This system works well when there is no earth shattering fundamental news driving the market in only one direction. You don't need to monitor news wires for that sort of information since it will be the lead story on any news broadcast, like CNN. The N. Korean shelling of S. Korean territory last week was some such earth shattering fundamental news that drove investors into the U SD and ment that price would not return to supply zones as usual, but rathe r fall, and then fall even more. So in conclusion, this system works well m,ost of the time when news is minor and price just swings from supply zones to demand zones and back again over and over. This system does not work well when major fundamental ne ws drives price in only one dirrection or anothe r. That is a different setup that should be


accounted for. It's a rare thing, happening only once a month or so, but it can be very profitable if it's recognized, and very costly if not.

11-28-2010, 06:15 PM



Grav thats great news, Im glad to have you on board and I value your opinion with regards anything trading wise... The fundamental issue you have pointed out is true, i discovered by losing lots of pips.... but good to know for the future, I avoided this by switching to my exotic pairs and had good success there... so barring global warfare there will always be pairs to trade using this system. and wow... thats a cracking win rate! the cbl combined is excellent for timing entries, and correct me if im wrong, is this the missing piece of the puzzle in bb dna, is this the key to the no trade zones?????

11-28-2010, 06:19 PM



heres a few numbers and pairs, not saying trade these numbers, but just areas to watch au 0.9575 ea 1.3840 ej 107.50 gu 1.5500 nu 0.7440 uchf 1.0175 uj 86????? cj 81.40 83.00

11-28-2010, 06:51 PM

#67


Graviton

Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: Houston, Texas Posts: 169

Senior Memb er

Quote:

Originally Posted by 60minuteman Grav thats great news, Im glad to have you on board and I value your opinion with regards anything trading wise... The fundamental issue you have pointed out is true, i discovered by losing lots of pips.... but good to know for the future, I avoided this by switching to my exotic pairs and had good success there... so barring global warfare there will always be pairs to trade using this system. and wow... thats a cracking win rate! the cbl combined is excellent for timing entries, and correct me if im wrong, is this the missing piece of the puzzle in bb dna, is this the key to the no trade zones????? 60MM, 4 of the 7 trades I took were in no trade zones and all won. I'm still in the earliest phase of testing, but my nornal win rate on trades taken in no trade zones is much less, like around 50% . I will say I am being very careful on not tr ading long into a higher time frame supply zone, or short into a higher time frame demand zone. For the most part though, these were trades I would have wanted to take anyway because of other reasons and the s/d picture just gave me additional confidence to take the trade and stay with them through the small retracements. Your statement that this can work except with breakout of global warfare is right on point. I'm not talking about not taking s/d trades because of red flag news. That news is the fuel to move price from supply to demand zones over and over and we depend on it to make our price targets. Specifically, I'm saying that very significant suprise news, like N. Korea shelling S. Korea will cause the system to break down, since price onl y moves in one direction then. Of course, that is the only sort of news I usually trade, and it can be very profitable by multi-lot trend trading in only that one dirrection. Like I said, that only usually happens once every month or two. So, In my own humble opinion, a complete system is two parts. One which uses s/d most of the time when N. Korea isn't shelling S. Korea, or something like that, and simply trend trading with multi-lots in the rare occasion when something like that is making headline s on every news broadcast in the world. Last edited b y Graviton; 11-28-2010 at 07:12 PM.

11-29-2010, 09:12 PM




ok, another week begins... +143 for the day, sounds good right? well how about 223? well thats what i would of had if i wasnt an idiot, i set a rule to not trade the euro and then complete ly ignored it.... so first lesson, dont break your rules! hahha... but seriously im beginning to realise that you can easily win 100 pips a day consistently if you just pick strong supply and strong demand....



12-01-2010, 08:29 AM

franci s galvin


Memb er

looking good 60

12-05-2010, 12:09 AM

fartist Memb er

#70 Join Dat e: Oct 2010 Posts: 49

took 3 trades this week, 1 win 2 losses First up AJ 1 HR TF Was not a high probabilty trade as the area was tested quite a number of times as 60mm has mentioned to me. Loss of 28pips on this.


2nd is CJ 1HR TF had a 1:3 risk reward ratio


And lastly was the same CJ trade i took earlier but a short down. However i was stopped out on this one. Over pips gained for the week is 85. Last edited b y fartist ; 1 2-05-2 010 at 07:2 4 AM.


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Page 8 of 12 « Fi rst < 6 7 8 9 10 > Last » Thread Tools 12-06-2010, 07:43 PM


nice fartist, you can see on your first chart that the first retur n that just clipped the area was the one to take... here is my AU entry from today

Display M odes #71 Join Date: N ov 2010 Posts: 157





12-07-2010, 10:32 PM



GA trade today, I could see a great set up on the daily, and 3hr tf, great potential, good drop base rall y, short time at the level etc etc all the enhancers (if you don't know them, you need to go watch the videos...slackers!) but anyway you can see just by looking at it, this is as good as set ups go.. took 400 pips with 4 lots... easy low risk mone y....


and here's the daily chart


12-14-2010, 05:20 PM

jdash Ju nior Mem ber

Great thread 60mm thanks for sharing with us.

#73 Join Date: Oct 2010 Loc ation: philip pi nes Posts: 6


12-18-2010, 10:27 AM

pauleamonn Junior Memb er

#74 Join Date: Dec 2010 Loc ation: Mid lands UK. Posts: 22

Hi All I'm new to this thread but not new to Supply & Demand trading as taught by Sam Seiden. Having said that, I'm only just getting my psychology around this stuff and so, while I may be quite knowledgeable on Sam's teachings, I haven't yet made my fortune using it - but I'm getting there. I passed this link to a couple of attendees to the Seiden webinar yesterday and they said that they would look in. Well, make yourselves know guys and let's see if we can make this a good thre ad whe re we can all learn and prosper from trading Supply & Demand. Just to throw a few pennies into the hat to start the ball rolling, I will give you an outline of my experience thus far and where I’m at in my journey. Over the year or so that I’ve been looking at S&D I’ve tried all sorts of ways to make it work for me but to no avail – until recently when I watched one of Sam’s old webinars where he discussed including CCI in the equation. However, just adding the CCI didn’t do it for me as I seemed to get whipped a lot. So I added in a higher time frame moving average and committed to only trading long when the 30 minute bar had closed above the ma and short when it closed below. This yielded some decent results but, at the same time, gave me some losses after price had turned at large supply or demand but the rules still required me to take the trade. Consequently I’ve been experimenting with the MACD as the gross trend indicator instead of the MA and, while at the tur ning points it is less clear than the MA, the preliminary results are looking good. Maybe I’ll end up using a hybrid of both; who knows at the moment. So that’s me - I’m getting the re bit by bit. 60 minute man, I look forward to your next post and also comments from anyone else looking in too. __________________ Regards Paul Eamonn

12-19-2010, 03:04 AM

fartist Memb er



Couple of SD trades i took over this week. Sorry if you guys couldn't see the tp levels as i print screen whe n i took the tr ade and did not printscreen the end result. Anyway couple things that he lps me greatly increase my probability of trade is that i trade only in the direction of the trend, if there is one. Example would be the audcad, its in a nice uptrend, thus i will never go shorting on it. Second, i look at price patterns, perharps my favourite would be the pinbars. Consolidation may not be a bad thing too. lastly, like what sam and 60mm has said, whe n price is rushing or barging into the SD area, its a good sign! I like that, however i will not enter till i get some clue s that price has somewhat stalled and might turn around. Because there are times it will just barge through and blast through the SD areas, so i generally am more conservative and wait for some confirmation first. Candlesticks would help you on that.

First up is audcad which was a long trade, i exited at BE for this.


Second trade is cadjpy short trade with nice range to swing trade from, i had close to 1:1 for this, however i exited as the weekend was approaching.


Last edited b y fartist ; 1 2-19-2 010 at 03:0 8 AM.

12-19-2010, 03:18 AM

#76


Join Dat e: Oct 2010 Location: USA Mic higan Posts: 38

Needy Adminis trator

Welcome aboard pauleamonn and thank you for helping to spread the word. I too am on the upside of learning S/D. 60mm and othe rs here have put it to good use. Join us in our Skype Live Trading Room. Go to http://66.55.139.141/bbdna and you MAY get in, otherwise post your Skype Name here and someone will invite you. It's supposed to be automatic but does not work right all the time: I hope we can fix this! It would be nice to see you enha nce the SD system using those indicators, not much sentiment around here for those. But like I said, I'm on the upside. You may find http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=255586 helpful, lots of SD there.

12-19-2010, 05:15 PM



Hi Needy Many thanks for the welcome and the link to the FF thread. I sat and read through it today and you are correct in that it does have some very interesting comments and resources - not all totally correct on my understanding of S&D as taught by Seiden (no, I'm not a OTA student, just an avid watche r of his webinars) but much of it helpful nevertheless. Thanks also for the invite to join the Skype group. I will tr y to link up tomorrow and enlighten you all as to why I adulterate the sanctity of supply and demand with indicators __________________ Regards Paul Eamonn

12-19-2010, 08:05 PM




sorr y for the lack of action here, christmas is a busy time in my restaurant, but i will update this week as i have some new ideas on how we can improve our s/d trades....

12-20-2010, 11:56 AM



Hi Needy I clicked on the link to the Skype live Trading Room but I'm not sure if it's working Ok or not. It opened up a Skype page with a couple of names at the top but there isn't any chatting going on. Or maybe it's the case that there isn't anyone on at the moment? At the moment all it's saying in the box where you type your message is 'The host of this conversation is currently off line. You can cl ose this window and when the host is next online you will be added to the IM.' Anyway, rather than post up my Skype name (so every twatinahat can get it - except, of course, those lovely young east Eur opean ladies who all want to be my friend ) can I Pm it to you or someone else? That way, as you suggested, I can be inv ited in and so get over the problem. __________________ Regards Paul Eamonn Last edited b y pauleam onn; 12-2 0-2010 at 01:39 PM.

12-20-2010, 01:39 PM



Hi Needy Just to let you know that Skype decided to let me into the Trade Room. One minute I was sitting there with a blank screen and the


next I was in among all the guys with about 960 IM's to read!! - and that was just for today! So anyway, all is good at the moment. __________________ Regards Paul Eamonn

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Page 9 of 12 « First < 7 8 9 10 11 > Last » Thread Tool s 12-20-2010, 04:23 PM

tymen1

Display Modes #81 Join Date: Oct 201 0 Posts: 45

Chief Admin istrator

In looking at this supply/demand trading I notice that something is glaringly absent...... What are the rules for determining the lines that set the width of the supply/demand bands? Could someone please post them. At this point is just looks as if they are drawn by magic and no particular rules are being used. This is obviously not good enough - there must be clear rules. I do find Sam Seidens material to be good and simple but unfortunately, he does not have the teaching gift that I have and the quality of his presentation is well below standard.

12-20-2010, 04:27 PM

#82


Join Date: Oct 201 0 Posts: 34

francis galvin Mem ber

Quote:

Originally Posted by tymen1 In looking at this supply/demand trading I notice that something is glaringly absent...... What are the rules for determining the lines that set the width of the supply/demand bands? Could someone please post them. At this point is just looks as if they are drawn by magic and no particular rules are being used. This is obviously not good enough - there must be clear rules. I do find Sam Seidens material to be good and simple but unfortunately, he does not have the teaching gift that I have and the quality of his presentation is well below standard.

i think this is where u could work ur magic tymen, simplifying and making clear rules as it's so close to ur own methods already. u could present this in a crystal clear manner to everyones benefit.

12-20-2010, 05:00 PM

pauleamonn Junior Member

#83 Join Date: Dec 20 10 Location: Midlands UK. Posts: 22

Quote:

Originally Posted by tymen1 In looking at this supply/demand trading I notice that something is glaringly absent...... What are the rules for determining the lines that set the width of the supply/demand bands? Could someone please post them. At this point is just looks as if they are drawn by magic and no particular rules are being used. This is obviously not good enough - there must be clear rules.


I do find Sam Seidens material to be good and simple but unfortunately, he does not have the teaching gift that I have and the quality of his presentation is well below standard. Tymen – Sam’s basic ‘rules’ are to eyeball the area of supply or demand and make sure that the lines enclose the area in which most of the trading was done (give or take a bit , his words, not mine). But having seen most of his webinars I have noticed that, at a supply level, he always looks to put the lower (entry) line approximately across the bottom of the bodies of the candles that form the base of his zone – i.e. those that make up the 'base' part of the rally/base/drop. As for the upper line, that seems to be set at the top of the wicks formed when price rallies just prior to the start of the base. In the case of a demand level the opposit e it true as you can see from the attached chart. However, I must just say that, while this chart is Ok for demonstrating the mechanics of a demand level, I don't think it would have actually been a qualifying level according to Sam’s rules – AFAIK. Hope this helps. Attached Images drop b ase rally.jp g (19 .9 KB, 36 views)

__________________ Regards Paul Eamonn Last edited by pauleam onn; 12 -20-2010 at 05:03 PM. Reason: Testicul ations

12-21-2010, 05:22 AM

tymen1 Chief Admin istrator

Quote:

#84 Join Date: Oct 201 0 Posts: 45


Originally Posted by pauleamonn Tymen – Sam’s basic ‘rules’ are to eyeball the area of supply or demand and make sure that the lines enclose the area in which most of the trading was done (give or take a bit, his words, not mine). Thank you Paul. I think that after I have published the Profit Walk method, I will spend some time looking at this approach and try to streamline some of the actions, such as the setting of the zones. More definite rules are needed here. In addition, some stronger rules may be needed to weed out the false areas fo supply/demand. Also in need of consideration is the fact that when the price action retraces to the supply/demand zone, it sometimes just goes straight through and does not do what you expected it to do.

12-21-2010, 06:09 AM



You're welcome Tymen. I don't know how familiar you are with Sam Seiden and his relationship wit h Online Trading Academy and FX Street so I will outline a few of my thoughts below just in case you are totally in the dark. If I am teaching my grandmother to 'suck eggs', I apologise in advance. What follows is just what I have gleaned from reading his material and listening to him on the webinars. Sam is one of the main educators at OTA. He not only takes classes in the various disciplines but he also conducts a large number of the XLT classes. The former being the pure 'teaching' of the basics of supply and demand and the latter being the mentorship of graduates on a continuing basis. FX Street is, as far as I'm concerned, used by Sam and OTA (and indeed all presenters of webinars on there) as no more than an advertising tool. Sam (and only Sam AFAIK) gives regular webinars on supply and demand. While these webinars are filled with lots of information, he has admitted on more than one occasion that they are by no means the whole deal. He says that he keeps stuff back for the paying customers and to discover all of the details of the systemethod you will have to attend one of the courses at a cost of $5000. Personally I see nothing wrong with this.


Therefore, you can forgive Sam if he seems to be a bit vague or reluctant to answer questions on the lesser discussed topics as he is, after all, trying to get people to sign up to the OTA courses and, if he gave away too much on FX Street, there would be no 'secrets' to pay $5000 for! Regarding the setting of the zones, Sam himself refers to it as a judgement call and the precise placing of the lines depends upon the eye of the beholder and in which time frame you view the area in question. Sam's rules of 5:1 & 3:1 are actually designed to highlight the potentially more reliable levels. A case in point is the chart I attached to my last post. My 'free' knowledge of the Seiden rules would suggest that the level I have shown would not have qualified as a potential entry. With reference to your comment that some levels seem to be ignored by the market on it s return can be put down to a number of things in my opinion. Firstly, it could be that the level is not actually 'a level'. It could be that the area is, in fact, the return to a previous level and so the likelihood of surplus supply or demand still being there is greatly reduced. Second, there is always the question of opposing higher time frame levels. By this I mean if you take a 5 minute supply entry very close to a daily demand level you are trading the wrong way and so should expect the level to fail. Sam once commented on levels that break and his answer to them so he is obviously fully aware that this is not the Holy Grail. I think this, as in all trading, is just a matter of following the rules (such as they are and can be) in the same way every time and relying on the numbers game aspect of Risk:Reward. Sorry if the above sounds like something straight out of Sam’s fan club manual - I assure you, transference is not an issue! - However, I have studied his material a great deal and have learned a lot about the realities of the market from him and so I have reason to be grateful. I just hope that the above helps you with your search for a more systematic way of trading supply and demand. I would certainly be interested in your findings. __________________ Regards Paul Eamonn

12-21-2010, 11:40 AM

#86


NorwegianBlue

Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Melb ourne Posts: 9

Junior Member

If the supply/demand rules only gave you 50/50 win ratio, with 3:1 risk/reward it would still be extremely profitable. On the other hand, why doesn't Sam just trade his system and build a 7 or 8 figure account? Why stuff around with customers and measly $5000 training courses?

12-21-2010, 12:05 PM



Hi NorwegianBlue You are indeed correct. A 50/50 win to loss ratio at 3:1 would make any trader very wealthy. However Sam says that on his smaller time frame intraday trades (usually on the Euro or the Yen); he only goes for a 1.5-2.0 to 1 profit to loss. As for the ‘why’ he teaches, well, he says he only sits in front of his screen for a couple of hours a day which would indicate to me that he doesn't want to be there any more than that. He's obviously got a life outside! Plus, listening to him talk on the webinars I tend to think that the teaching is done more for the love of it or, at the very least, for the interest and distraction away from trading. I cert ainly know for myself that I get bored sometimes sitting in front of my screens but, there again, I can sit a talk about trading all day long. Maybe getting the balance correct is important to him? __________________ Regards Paul Eamonn

12-22-2010, 08:13 AM

#88


tymen1

Join Date: Oct 201 0 Posts: 45

Chief Admin istrator

Quote:

Originally Posted by pauleamonn You're welcome Tymen. Therefore, you can forgive Sam if he seems to be a bit vague or reluctant to answer questions on the lesser discussed topics as he is, after all, trying to get people to sign up to the OTA courses and, if he gave away too much on FX Street, there would be no 'secrets' to pay $5000 for! Thank you again for your very comprehensive answer Paul. It is a pleasant change for me to be able to read proper replies from traders. I was so accustomed to getting nothing but static and trash posts from the troublemakers on BP. I think that place is cursed with troublemakers and will always have them!! Now I am not familiar with Sam Seiden's teachings, but since there has been so much publicit y on our forum about him, I have made a point about learning his stuff - and I must say, it is high quality. I, therefore, value highly every piece of information that you give on his methods. However, I cannot stomach his videos - I maintain that, while he knows his stuff, he is no teacher, and his presentation, even if deliberately vague at certain points, is the pits!! He reminds me of my university days, with the lecturers who had no teaching skills, and mumbling along in such a way as to put everyone to sleep. Seiden's presentation skill is no better than that. For this reason, I may have to input, and learn carefully his method, then re-present it here in a professional manner in a PDF. Not only that, there is no charge for my work. I am not surprised that he would be vague - someone is always trying to chisel money out of someone else thro some racket. There is no way that I would pay for anything of his. My Profit Walk method is very similar and it is FREE!!


Quote:

With reference to your comment that some levels seem to be ignored by the market on its return can be put down to a number of things in my opinion. Firstly, it could be that the level is not actually 'a level'. It could be that the area is, in fact, the return to a previous level and so the likelihood of surplus supply or demand still being there is greatly reduced. Yes, I understand this. Quote:

Second, there is always the question of opposing higher time frame levels. By this I mean if you take a 5 minute supply entry very close to a daily demand level you are trading the wrong way and so should expect the level to fail. I discovered this one also.

Quote:

I just hope that the above helps you with your search for a more systematic way of trading supply and demand. I would certainly be interested in your findings. Well, Paul, I should carefully study what is available here and do some research of my own. Then I can professionally present the Supply and Demand PDF.

12-22-2010, 08:22 AM

tymen1 Chief Admin istrator

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorwegianBlue

#89 Join Date: Oct 201 0 Posts: 45


If the supply/demand rules only gave you 50/50 win ratio, with 3:1 risk/reward it would still be extremely profitable. On the other hand, why doesn't Sam just trade his system and build a 7 or 8 figure account? Why stuff around with customers and measly $5000 training courses? This has me a little suspicious also. Teaching is a nice way to get around and meet people but you are giving away your trading secrets. As a professional teacher myself, I can tell you that teaching can get boring too - just like any other job. Furthermore, he is not a qualified teacher and that certainly is made very obvious with his mindless dithering and aimless presentation in his webinars. He does not have a clue on how to present a topic professionally. Nevertheless, I will at least give him credit for trying to present something of real value. On the other hand, my stuff here is for FREE and I teach it properly!!

12-22-2010, 03:26 PM


60minuteman Senior Mem ber

This is like saying why do rich men work, come on, its not as simple as making money, you need to have a purpose in life too!

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12-25-2010, 04:26 AM

Graviton

#91 Join Date: Oct 2010 Loca tion: Hou ston, Texas Posts: 169

Senior Memb er

I think there is good basis to much of what Sam teaches. I've used those methods to help spot trading set-ups. I could understand wanting to spend some time teaching as it's very rewarding. As to what the point of charging $5,000 for "secrets" is, I have no clue. Someone would have to prove to me these secrets are worth $5,000 and I find that very hard to believe. If I type supply demand trading into google, I get over 23,000 pages and I suspect all of Sam's secrets are there. Really, even the US State Dept. can't keep a secret these days. I'm quite sure Sam's students are no better at it. So far, I've found all on supply demand trading I have time to read.

01-12-2011, 06:26 PM

O990l6mh


Junior Memb er

I've just read through this thread now and I feel cheated

This is the very thr ead I was planning on getting around to myself!

Jokes aside, pleased to be here and I certainly hope the thr ead is still alive. I see it was a few weeks since the last post.


Anyway, I'll try to post a chart or two and add to the learning. I'm almost through all of Sam's videos but there's a bunch of the m so I still have the vids from April 2010 and forward to watch. Thanks for the link to this thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=255586 I've only glanced but it looks very tasty! I also have some thoughts on the approach to s/d that Seiden te aches. It all makes sense, actually, it makes more sense than everything else I've come across combined. Still, there are some things that he eithe r doesn't mention at all (in the vids I've seen so far). It's going to take some time to explain what I mean so I'll save it for my next post. Anyway, glad to see some fellow Seiden students here! __________________ I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. Part of: Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear

01-13-2011, 08:55 AM

tymen1


Chief A dm inistrator

Quote :

Originally Posted by O990l6mh ............................................ Still, there are some things that he either doesn't mention at all (in the vids I've seen so far)....................... I am told that the things he does not mention are given in his teaching sessions where you have to pay to get that extra. NOTICE - I have specially provided a category for Sam Seidens trading method. Future posts should be put in that category and NOT he re. I will be shifing all related posts to that category shor tly.

01-13-2011, 01:38 PM

#94


O990l6mh


Junior Memb er

Quote :

Originally Posted by tymen1 I am told that the things he does not mention are given in his teaching sessions where you have to pay to get that extra. NOTICE - I have specially provided a category for Sam Seidens trading method. Future posts should be put in that category and NOT here. I will be shifing all related posts to that category shortly. I know about the paying part, I'm not entirely sure that he covers my question in that material eithe r though. I'll explain what I mean in detail later. I did see the Seiden section, I even opened a thread of my own the re that I will hopefully develop into something useful. I expect that this thread will soon be a neighbour over there in the Seiden section __________________ I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. Part of: Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear

01-13-2011, 07:59 PM

O990l6mh


Junior Memb er

I need some input!

All right. I need some input here. This short EURCHF was the first trade I took using Sam Seiden's approach. It was a loser and now my que stion is: did I miss something or was this just one of those that Sam might have taken as well and that simply fails for no good reason? Some charts:


Here's the big picture that I based the trade on. Did I make a mistake picking this supply zone? It's not the first retrace to the zone, but since it has dropped nicely from the zone every time I viewed it as valid.


Today it became obvious that being a bit more generous with the stop loss would have done nothing to help the trade:


I've gone over this trade and looked at it and I can't honestly see anything that I was off about anything in setting the trade up. That's why I'm posting, I'd very much li ke to get some input from 60mm or anyone else about this. Was it me, or was it just one of those that didn't work out? __________________ I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. Part of: Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear

01-13-2011, 08:55 PM

Tyler Vegas Junior Memb er



i think one reason why it did not work out is because it had already retraced quite a bit just before reaching your supply level.

01-13-2011, 08:59 PM

O990l6mh


Junior Memb er

Quote :

Originally Posted by Tyler Vegas i think one reason why it did not work out is because it had already retraced quite a bit just before reaching your supply level. Well yes, but it would have to retrace after first dropping from the supply to the left right? Maybe I'm not quite understanding what you're saying? __________________ I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. Part of: Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear

01-13-2011, 09:14 PM

Tyler Vegas


Junior Memb er

yes that first supply level i believe you are talking about was confirmed by the retrace. meaning the one you used just above was now much less favourable for anothe r tur n south. i have heard sam talk about this issue in his videos

01-13-2011, 09:22 PM

#99


O990l6mh


Junior Memb er

Quote :

Originally Posted by Tyler Vegas yes that first supply level i believe you are talking about was confirmed by the retrace. meaning the one you used just above was now much less favour able for another turn south. i have heard sam talk about this issue in his videos He does talk about that but as I understand him he says that as long as every drop gives a 3:1 profit margin or better he view the area as still valid. __________________ I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. Part of: Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear

01-13-2011, 10:09 PM

#100 Join Date: Oct 2010 Locat ion: M ichig an Posts: 6

jcgibson Ju nior Mem ber

Quote :

Originally Posted by O990l6mh He does talk about that but as I understand him he says that as long as every drop gives a 3:1 profit margin or better he view the area as still valid. I think the reason has to do with the last time price visited the zone it stayed way to long. To be a valid Supply zone it needs to get in and out with fewer bars. At least that is what I understand.

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01-14-2011, 08:51 PM

O990l6mh


Ju nior Mem ber

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcgibson I think the reason has to do with the last time price visited the zone it stayed way to long. To be a valid Supply zone it ne eds to get in and out with fewer bars. At least that is what I understand. Yes, I've studied it a bit more and he actually contradicts himself slightly between the different videos. The one where he says that a s/d level re mains valid for x number of times as long as price continues to react strongly to it seems to be the one off. In most vids he uses the chopping down a tree analogy to explain how the supply or demand is drained more and more with every time that the level is hit and he prefers trading the first or maybe the second revisit but not further than that. I found a some very useful info on the odds enhancers and that sort of helped me with my analysis of the failed trade I've posted. One of the odds enhancers that did not check out was the number of revisits to the level, another was as you said, the time spent at the level last time. At the lest it would have been a trade that should have been entered through a confirmation order, not a set and forget limit


order, if the trade should have been taken at all that is. __________________ I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. Part of: Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear

01-14-2011, 08:52 PM

O990l6mh


Ju nior Mem ber

Still would like some input from the thread starter... hint hint __________________ I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. Part of: Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear

01-15-2011, 01:08 PM

fartist Memb er


Hey there. I have personally used SD and there are in fact 3 things i look out for when i enter a trade. 1) Firstly would be a strong drop of price action 2) I would only go with the trend, no counter trend trades for me 3) lastly, i look closely at price action of candlesticks. I like indecision candles and shooting stars. IB and OB are good as well. As for your trade, i would probably would have taken it as i see nothing wrong, only reason i did not take it was i am asleep and usuall y take SD trades during london sessions. Cheers!

01-19-2011, 11:25 AM




Hi O990l6mh I think it’s very easy to ‘hindsight’ a trade – especially someone else’s – and give a critique on it but I’ll do my best to try and avoid being influenced by subseque nt events. In short, I think you made two errors. Firstly, you marked up the wrong area by setting your levels based on a supply zone that had been (by my interpretation of the Seiden rules) negated. Second, you seem to give the same importance to the actual top as do many others on here. In some cases this attention is often neither deserved nor proves to be the focus of the move especially on the first visit back. That is not to say that Sam ignores pivots. In this case he may have declared the area as a ‘level on a level’; in his eyes, a very high probability trade, though I doubt it. From what I can see you took the supply level from the 21st Dec and decided that the revisit on the 27th was so comprehensive ly rejected that there would still be plenty of sellers in the area. In this you were correct and the subsequent visit to the level on the 5th/6th Jan proved that there was still supply in the area. However, on this visit the time at the level (from 15.00gmt to 11.00gmt) gave the market lots of opportunity to do its thing. Not only that but the price action also negated the original level’s value by (in Sam’s words) penetr ating the zone by more than 50%. That is one of the benchmarks he uses to judge as to whether he will entered on a second or subsequent revisit to a zone. If we examine the main area upon which you based your trade levels, price was in the area for about 20 hours, much of that during the European and U S sessions – lots of chopping of the tree trunk. During that time the only attempt made by price to leave the area was during a 30 odd pip drop at the beginning of European tr ade possibly caused by the better than expect Chf CPI figur es announced at 8.15am. This was quickly recovered during the second half of the morning when price moved back into the area for another hour or so – poor Eurozone retail sales figures? Then price dropped back down to the same level that turned it back up earlier and traded in a narrow range for a couple of hours. Then, and this to my mind is the big clue, price dropped 150 pips in not much more time than it took price to move the two 30 pip drops earlier in the day. Now that is order exhaustion! Then it broke down some more and gave us the required 5:1 zone:return ratio that Sam looks for. That is something I’ve not seen mentioned on any thread before and is one of the things that Sam considers important to a low risk trade. In short, it stretches the elastic band. However, in the end, it would have been all for nought as the trade didn’t work out anyway. Even by taking 12670 as the entry and putting the stop past the back of the zone at 12702, the refore giving us a 3:1 profit to the next opposing demand level (12556), price still didn’t get down there. Therefore, from my understanding of the Seiden method, as he doesn’t move his stop loss to breakeven until the first target is hit which, in this case, it wasn’t, the trade would have ended up as a loser. Anyway, those are my thoughts, for what they are worth. I hope it helps. __________________ Regards


Paul Eamonn

01-19-2011, 11:33 AM



Quote:

Originally Posted by fartist 2) I would only go with the trend, no counter trend trades for me Hi Fartist If I recall correctly, the last time I listened to a Seiden webinar he was asked about trend and I recall that he said (something like) - "After you've been following this method for a while trend isn't something you take much notice of". If you consider the conceptual theory of his method it is true. There isn't any reason to take trend into consideration as trend is a function of the time frame and so you are always trading both with a trend and against one. I think the reality is more likely that you should be looking to trade into the area of least resistance rather that with a trend. __________________ Regards Paul Eamonn Last edited b y pauleam onn; 01-1 9-2011 at 11:35 AM. Reason: A dded som e more FWIW!!

01-20-2011, 02:16 AM

fartist Memb er


I prefer being in sync with the higher TF trend. I didn't exactly follow sam's method exactly, just some modification to keep me in tr ades i feel that has higher probability to me. Thanks for pointing out and sharing, i believe others out here would benefit from your post


01-20-2011, 08:40 AM



Hi Fartist – thanks for your reply. Like you I don’t actually use Sam’s system in its purest manner, it just doesn’t suit my psychology. Again, like you, I just take a bit of it to confirm entries and give me advanced warning me of ‘speed bumps’ and possible limits. However, I do know quite a bit about it, having studied his methods for a couple of years, so I am always happy to try and help anyone who wants to master the Seiden Supply and Demand. I know, I know! Some people on here may find that a bit strange (knowing a method but not using it!). But I know ‘me’ and it just don’t fit with my psyche and where I am in my trading evolution. There again, I am also pretty knowledgeable in Elliott wave (not a good method of analysis for a Libran! ) and also quick good with Joe DiNapoli’s Fibonacci trading. But they’re both too riddled with the need for decisions and that isn’t good for a Libran eithe r. Still, you never know, talking about Sam's methodology on here may move me on a bit and I might grow into it. It would be good to develop something for longer term trading. Another thing I find difficulty with is identifying a trend judgementally – and so I don’t tr y! For my trading, I just use a very simple 30 min 20 period SMA. Even then I can still find problems with indecision! Still, I seem to be able to work with it and make a regular profit. Can I ask, if you don’t mind, how you identify the higher time frame trends? __________________ Regards Paul Eamonn

01-20-2011, 12:19 PM

fartist Memb er


Hi there! Well to answer your qns about looking at trends, i simple look at the weekly charts and scrutinize down to the daily and 4 hourly to get clearer picture.


As you know sometimes 4HR can be trending but it could simply be part of a bigger rretracement on the daily, or even weekly. I agree it can be subjective at times, or even unsure. When thats the case, it probably means there isn't a trend and just ranging. I believe you know the higher highs and lows stuff, so i don't think i'll even go to it. However if you want to read about trend trading, there's a thread in babypips created by graviton titled multi time frame trading in the newbies section. Have a read, or better still are you on skype? I could send you the PDF file for it, perharps you could gain better insight. Good to know that you're doing well with SD, i rarely get much entries on it due to the fact that i look for higher TF entries, like 4HR and above. Great to have you aboard and i look forward to learning more from you

02-04-2011, 05:56 PM



wow... sorry i havent posted on he re for so long... but i have been working on my own trading and i've got too much on my plate to be fair... i will tr y and go through the posts this weekend and get things back upto date...

here's a thought in the meantime.... a stop loss should be at the point a long becomes a short and vice versa..... if your waiting to see if a demand level is going to hold so you can go long, what is a hi gh probability trade if preice breaks this level ???? as always, zoom out, look left..... i have lots more on this point and i will post some charts this weekend....

02-04-2011, 08:51 PM

#110




ok here is one of the ways i use supply and demand to trade.... i will post some more examples, for now look at the charts and tell me your thoughts p.s the second chart is a 15m chart


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ok and now how it works on zones that are respected.......

Display Modes #111 Join Dat e: Nov 2010 Posts: 157



02-06-2011, 07:24 PM

#112


O990l6mh


Junior Member

Quote:

Originally Posted by pauleamonn Hi O990l6mh I think it’s very easy to ‘hindsight’ a trade – especially someone else’s – and give a critique on it but I’ll do my best to try and avoid being influenced by subsequent events. In short, I think you made two errors. Firstly, you marked up the wrong area by setting your levels based on a supply zone that had been (by my interpretation of the Seiden rules) negated. Second, you seem to give the same importance to the actual top as do many others on here. In some cases this attention is often neither deserved nor proves to be the focus of the move especially on the first visit back. Well, looking at the 4H chart price does drop away pretty strongly from the level on Jan 6. Looking back, what I see now is that due to how price behaved on the way back to the level, I would not have placed a limit order. It was able to hang around just below the zone without much effort, which is a red flag. The fact that it was not the first revisit either (it is actually the third... not very hot in Sam's book) and also that price spent some time in the zone on the first revisit would also, as I know now, have caused me to either scrath the setup, or at least, wait for confirmation. Quote:

Originally Posted by pauleamonn That is not to say that Sam ignores pivots. In this case he may have declared the area as a ‘level on a level’; in his eyes, a very high probability trade, though I doubt it. From what I can see you took the supply level from the 21st Dec and decided that the revisit on the 27th was so comprehensively rejected that there would still be plenty of sellers in the area. In this you were correct and the subsequent visit to the level on the 5th/6th Jan proved that there was still supply in the area. However, on this visit the time at the level (from 15.00gmt to 11.00gmt) gave the market lots of opportunity to do its thing. Not only that but the price action also negated the original level’s value by (in Sam’s words) penetrating the zone by more than 50%. That is one of the benchmarks he uses to judge as to whether he will entered on a second or subsequent revisit to a zone. Looking back more carefully I realize that the lower border of the zone should have been at 1.2680-ish which would have, as you say, made the whole thing a non issue as there would never have been any trade in the location I picked. Quote:

Originally Posted by pauleamonn If we examine the main area upon which you based your trade levels, price was in the area for about 20 hours, much of that during the European and US sessions – lots of chopping of the tree trunk. During that time the only attempt made by price to leave the area was during a 30 odd pip drop at the beginning of European trade possibly caused by the better than expect Chf CPI


figures announced at 8.15am. This was quickly recovered during the second half of the morning when price moved back into the area for another hour or so – poor Eurozone retail sales figures? Then price dropped back down to the same level that turned it back up earlier and traded in a narrow range for a couple of hours. Quote:

Originally Posted by pauleamonn Then, and this to my mind is the big clue, price dropped 150 pips in not much more time than it took price to move the two 30 pip drops earlier in the day. Now that is order exhaustion! Then it broke down some more and gave us the required 5:1 zone:return ratio that Sam looks for. That is something I’ve not seen mentioned on any thread before and is one of the things that Sam considers important to a low risk trade. In short, it stretches the elastic band.

I'm not sure I'm follwing quite here? This strong drop would then suggest a major imbalance of s/d having come about right? Wouldn't that then support the view that the zone is still valid even though it has been revisited before? You write 5:1? I haven't heard anything else that 3:1 or better said by Sam in his webinars. Please elaborate? Quote:

Originally Posted by pauleamonn However, in the end, it would have been all for nought as the trade didn’t work out anyway. Even by taking 12670 as the entry and putting the stop past the back of the zone at 12702, therefore giving us a 3:1 profit to the next opposing demand level (12556), price still didn’t get down there. Therefore, from my understanding of the Seiden method, as he doesn’t move his stop loss to breakeven until the first target is hit which, in this case, it wasn’t, the trade would have ended up as a loser. Not moving stops is what I've heard him say as well, although he said at one occasion or another that one might consider moving to break even at 2R, but that it's not something he himself does. Quote:

Originally Posted by pauleamonn Anyway, those are my thoughts, for what they are worth. I hope it helps. It certainly does! __________________ I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. Part of: Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear

02-06-2011, 07:25 PM

O990l6mh Junior Member



Quote:

Originally Posted by 60minuteman ok and now how it works on zones that are respected.......


So you're basically using 1-2-3 setups in conjunction with Seiden's zones? __________________


I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. Part of: Bene Gesserit Litany Against Fear

02-07-2011, 12:38 AM



Quote:

Originally Posted by O990l6mh So you're basically using 1-2-3 setups in conjunction with Seiden's zones? yes, I have been trying lots of price action trading and they seem to be very reliable.... I always keep an open mind and view a supply and demand zone as a good location for a short OR long trade, so wether the zone is respected or not there is usually a good trade to be had.

02-11-2011, 01:37 PM

squiggl yline Junior Member

#115 Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 3

hey 60 .. nice thread ... its good to see a true sam seiden thread in action - hopefully we can keep it alive

02-14-2011, 12:54 PM


Quote:

Originally Posted by squigglyline hey 60 .. nice thread ... its good to see a true sam seiden thread in action - hopefully we can keep it alive Thanks squiggly.... cool name.... you should take a look at my fibalicous thread too in general trend trading...



03-29-2011, 05:27 AM

ardoc Junior Member

#117 Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2

I am trader of ready made new summer stuff.. I had been starting my trading business for previous 2 months... I want to expand my business, Do tell me how it is possible.. What the new thing that I really start for earning more profit... Thanks in advance..

THIS POST DOES NOT REALLY ADDRESS THE SUBJECT - Administration. __________________ Phoenix Homes for Sale Last edited by tymen1; 03-29-2011 at 05:01 PM. Reason: largely irrelevant.

04-01-2011, 08:44 PM



perhaps go to the fxstreet.com website, watch a few webinars and see what type of trading appeals to you sam seiden rob booker chris capre all good traders and teachers good luck

04-22-2011, 09:42 PM

sheth39 Junior Member

#119 Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 1

supply and demand zon e

earlier in the thread there was talk about coming up with rules for supply zone and demand zone. any news on that? otherwise if u put tight stop loss and ur wrong in placing the zone lines correct u will be stopped out more often even though u correctly identified trade.


thanks hope for the reply.

05-19-2011, 08:35 AM

#120 Join Date: May 2011 Location: USA Posts: 4

Langer Junior Member

Excellent work here and important tips here about the supply demand objectives,Really learning and informative.Keep it up. __________________ Deed in Lieu

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