Chapter 6 Hull 6 Hull Importing Company Effects of Intervention on Import expense a) Hull expects expects the at Mexico’s Mexico’s central central bank bank will increase increase interest interest rates rates and that Mexico’s inflation will not be affected. Offer any interest on how the peso’s value may change and how Hull’s profits would be affected as a result.
Higher interest rates without an increase in inflation would adversely affect Hull, because its expenses expense s would increase, but it would not n ot be able to pass on the higher h igher cost to its customers. When Mexico’s central bank will increase the interest rates, the investors of neighbor country want to invest in Mexico. The value of Peso’s will increase due to increase demand of investors. This higher value also increases the expense of Hull Company, and Hull profits would be affected due to its higher cost of importing. As a result consumers would then switch to different gift Item Company.
b) Hull used to closely closely monitor government intervention intervention by the the Bank of England England (the British central bank) on the value of the pound. Assume that the bank of England intervenes to strengthen the pound’s value with respect to the dollar by 5 percent. Would this have a favorable or unfavorable effect on Hull’s business?
If the British pound’s value is increased, Hull’s expenses are increased, causing an adverse effect. This intervention create both positive and negative situation, 5% are not small amount. If the value of pound will increase 5%, expense will also increase which would be unfavorable effect for Hull business. Because of importing company, Hull has been unable to pass on higher cost to its customer. But it would be favorable for Hull business, if expense is decrease due to decrease the value of pound by the Brithish Central bank.
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Chapter 7 Zuber, 7 Zuber, Inc. (Using covered interest Arbitrage) A) Would you be willing to invest the the funds in Poland without without covering covering your position? Explain.
The expected value of the yield on investing funds in this country would be 14 percent, versus only 9 percent in the U.S. However, there is much uncertainty un certainty about the foreign yield. If the currency depreciates by a large amount, it will wipe out some of the principal invested. Given that Zuber did not want to target these funds for a speculative purpose, it would not be wise to invest these funds in the country without covering.
B) Suggest how how you could attempt attempt covered covered interest arbitrage. arbitrage. What What is the expected expected return from using covered interest arbitrage?
Covered interest arbitrage would involve exchanging dollars for the currency today, investing the currency in the country’s Treasury securities, and negotiating a forward contract to sell the currency in one year in exchange for dollars. Given that $10 million is available, this amount would be converted into 25 million units of the foreign currency, which would accumulate to 28.5 million units (at 14 percent) by the end of the year, and be converted into $11,115,000 at the time (based on a forward rate of $.39). This reflects a return of 11.15 percent.
C) What risks risks are involved involved in using covered interest interest arbitrage arbitrage here? here?
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The risks of covered interest arbitrage are as follows: •
The Treasury of the country could default on its securities issued.
•
The bank may not fulfill its obligation on the forward contract (the bank was just recently privatized and does not have a track record as a privatized institution).
•
The government could restrict funds from being converted into dollars. (Since the country has only allowed foreign investments recently, it does not have a track record. There is some uncertainty about its future laws on international finance.)
D) If you had to to choose between between investing investing your funds in U.S. Treasury Treasury bills at 9 percent or using covered interest arbitrage, what would be your choice? Defend your answer.
While covered interest arbitrage would be expected to achieve a yield of 11.15 percent (versus only on ly 9 percent in the U.S.), the risks are significant, s ignificant, and especially considering that the country is still experimenting with cross-border transactions. Since some students will probably suggest going for the higher returns, this question may allow for an interesting class discussion
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Chapter 8 Flame Fixtures, Inc
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(Business application of purchasing power parity) a) Describe a scenario that that could cause flame to save even more than 20 percent on on production costs .
If the peso depreciates by more than the inflation differential, then the dollar cost to Flame will be even lower than expected.
b) Describe a scenario that that could cause flame to actually incur higher higher production production costs than if it simply had the parts produced in the United States.
If the peso depreciates by less than the inflation differential, then the dollar cost to Flame will be even higher than expected. Consider a scenario in which the Mexican inflation rate is 80 percent or so, causing the bill in pesos to be 80 percent higher. Yet, if the peso depreciated by a relatively small amount over this period (say 20 percent or so), the dollar cost to Flame will increase substantially. Since there are other factors in addition to inflation that also affect the peso’s exchange rate, the peso will not necessarily depreciate by an amount that fully offsets the high inflation. c) Do you think that Flame will experience stable dollar outflow payments to Coron over time? Explain,(Assume Explain, (Assume that the number of parts ordered is constant over time)
Stable dollar payments payments would only occur if the peso depreciated depreciated by an amount that offset its high inflation rate. It is unlikely that there will be a perfect offset in any given period. Therefore, Flame’s dollar payments would be unstable, and so would its profits. 4|Page
d) Do you think that Flame’s risk changes at all as a result of its new relationship with Coron Company? Explain.
The risk would increase, because its payments for parts would now be more volatile, and so would its profits. Given that it does not have much liquidity, it will suffer a cash squeeze if the peso does not depreciate much while Mexican inflation is high. Over the long run, there may be periods in which this happens. Flame would be locked into this arrangement with Coron for ten years, and therefore cannot back out, even if the peso’s depreciation does not offset the inflation differential.
Chapter 19 Ryco 19 Ryco Chemical Company (Using countertrade )
a) Describe a counter trade strategy that could reduce Ryco’s exposure to Brazilian inflation.
Ryco could attempt to work out a countertrade agreement. Ryco could provide chemicals that Concellos needs in exchange for the chemicals that Ryco normally purchases from Concellos. Concellos. Ryco could benefit because its cost of importing some chemicals would no longer be tied to Brazilian inflation. Instead its cost would be tied to its own cost of producing the chemicals it must exchange for the imports. If Concellos would agree to the countertrade agree agreeme ment, nt, Ryco Ryco may may be able able to stabi stabili lize ze its its cost cost of impor imports ts,, which which could could reduc reducee the uncertainty surrounding cash flows and profitability.
b) Would Concellos be willing to consider this strategy? Is there any favorable effect on Concellos that may motivate it to accept the strategy?
Concellos is exposed to the weak currency (called the real). If it purchases the chemicals used in production from Ryco, its cost will not be affected by the real’s exchange exchange rate (as it could purchase the U.S. goods through a countertrade coun tertrade agreement). Thus, it may be able to stabilize its cost of imports in this matter.
c) Assume that both both parties agree on counter counter trade. Why would the the cost of obtaining imports still rise over time for concellos? Would concellos earn lower profits as a result?
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Concellos’ cost of obtaining imports is the cost of producing the chemicals it uses for exchange exchange (based (based on the counter countertrad tradee agreeme agreement) nt).. Given Given high inflation inflation in Brazil Brazil,, these these production costs will rise. However, it may be able to raise rais e its prices on o n its final products pr oducts by by the inflation rate to cover its higher costs of production. Overall, it will be able to offset these higher costs easier than offsetting the higher costs that would result from exchange rate effects. Since its competitors base their prices on local cost of production (as they are not exposed to a weak exchange rate risk), Concellos would now incur costs that are more similar to those of its competitors.
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