Services for the Feasibility Study for the Laguna Lakeshore Expressway- Dike Project (y

FINAL REPORT

Feasibility Study of Laguna Lakeshore Expressway- Dike (LLEDP)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PROJECT DESCRIPTION

Upon the request of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), thru the “Advancing Philippine Competitiveness (COMPETE) Project”, engaged the Consultant to provide Services for the Feasibility Study for the Laguna Lakeshore Expressway- Dike Project (hereinafter called the Project). The Project aims to provide a high-standard highway-cum-dike that will facilitate traffic flow and mitigate flooding in the western coastal communities along Laguna Lake, from Bicutan/Taguig in Metro Manila through Calamba to Los Baños in Laguna. The Project is intended to be implemented under a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) scheme. The proposed Laguna Lakeshore Expressway- Dike Project consists of the following components: 1.

Laguna Lakeshore Expressway- Dike The Laguna Lakeshore Expressway Dike is a high speed highway facility that will run from the proposed terminus of C6 Phase 2 Expressway Project in Taguig Tagu ig until un til it reaches the th e area of Los L os Banos in Laguna. It has a length of 47.00 kilometers, to be installed at an average of 500 meters from the shoreline of Laguna Lake, farthest along the cove areas while maintaining an almost straight alignment and complying with high standard highway specifications. Further, the proposed expressway will be used to integrate a flood control system across the flood prone areas located along the shoreland of Laguna Lake. The flood control system consists of the expressway dike itself, which will serve as a barrier to deter the rising water of Laguna Lake from flowing onto the shoreland areas and a pumping system that will maintain the level of water along the shoreland at its lowest and keep it flood free even during heavy rains and strong typhoons.

2.

Reclamation Component The proposed reclamation component of the Project is to finance the construction of the entire project through thro ugh proceeds from the th e sale of part p art of the th e reclaimed lands. lan ds. This project p roject component comp onent is an amended reclamation proposal which was previously subjected to detailed feasibility study by then Public Est ates Authority (P EA) and now Philippine Reclamatio n Authority or o r PRA. The proposed reclamation component will have an initial 300 hectares up to maximum of 700 hectares coverage, as indicated by the results of the feasibility study stage.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

The government is optimistic that the country will continue to have brighter economic prospects for the year 2014. This would require concerted efforts from various government agencies and LGU officials. The NSCB (Agri-business sector) listed down several recommendations to reduce poverty and increase competitiveness of the country’s economy such as: (1) creation of at least 2 millions of jobs in the agriculture sector; (2) rehabilitation/repair rehabilitation/r epair of existing irrigation system and other infrastructure facilities; (3) promotion of off-and-non-farm enterprises including agri-processing in the agribusiness lands to increase and stabilize rural income. ADB projected that the country’s GDP is estimated to recover to 4.8% in 2012 and 5.0% in 2013 (after 3.7% in 2011). In ADB’s report released on 11 April 2012, it stated that “increased public spending, investment, and private consumption will lift growth in the Philippines over the next 2

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Feasibility Study of Laguna Lakeshore Expressway Dike (LLED) Expressway Pro ect

FINAL REPORT

years. However, long-standing structural weaknesses will remain an obstacle to reaching the government’s 7-8% economic growth target”. The CALABARZON region has great potentials to boost its economic growth and sustain its efforts in generating more employment opportunities in the succeeding years due to presence of industrial companies, and other business establishments. It has also vast tracts of land that could be utilized for expansion of industrial/business centers. The DOT is optimistic that the number of tourist arrivals in the country will continue to steadily increase in 2014, with the concerted efforts that it has been undertaking with other government agencies and private sector. The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) projected that, international travelers will nearly double in size in the succeeding years. Increase of tourist arrivals is expected in the country in 2013 and onwards. The target of the DOT is 4.6 million tourist arrivals in the country by 2013. It is also expected that there will be an increase in subdivisions or residential communities existing in the project areas or real estate business in the project areas due to improved road networks. Considering the rapid population growth in the project areas due to presence of industrial estates and commercial/business centers, it is expected that demands for housing units would be higher. Migration is fast in the project areas, and brighter economic growth in the areas is one of the key factors that could attract people from adjacent areas in Laguna or NCR to move to Laguna province. Increase in business investors and boost in tourism industry in the Project Area will redound to providing more employment opportunities for households. Small and medium-scale businesses in the region/provinces will increase once the proposed projects are implemented and completed. More commercial establishments will be established, and households will have the brighter prospects for increase in income. With all these positive socio-economic indicators observed, the development and implementation of the proposed PPP Projects is worthy of consideration. TRAFFIC ANALYSIS

The results of the traffic analysis undertaken for the Project suggest that the implementation of the Proposed Projects will exhibit promising and encouraging results in terms of traffic diversion, generation and development since the alignments of the toll way sections will traverse an area where land expansion for mixed development could be possible, the tourism industry and its accompanying and related business activities could grow and spread even to the remote communities of the Project areas, while flooding, traffic congestion and existing insufficient traffic network system could be resolved effectively. The results of the traffic analysis indicate that the traffic volume along the proposed Project Area will increase significantly with varying magnitude as the proposed line traverses from its interface with the Proposed C6 Tollway in Bicutan up to its terminus in Los Ba !os, Laguna. The projected traffic volume for the Project for the year 2020 at toll rate of PhP7.00 per kilometer is presented in the following table. Projected Traffic Volume Segment

Bicutan to San Pedro IC

San Pedro to Binan IC


Vehicle

Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Total Class 1 Class 2

Year 2020

33976 9250 3853 47080 39301 10700

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FINAL REPORT

Class 3 Total Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Total Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Total Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Total

Binan IC to Sta. Rosa (CALAX)

Sta. Rosa IC to Calamba IC

Calamba to Los Banos

4457 54457 21003 5718 2382 29103 9788 2665 1110 13562 16422 4471 1863 22756

From the results of the traffic projection and considering the DPWH standard to require widening once the traffic volume to capacity ratio reaches 0.6, the Project will require six (6) lanes ultimate development. The Table below shows the projected traffic volumes along the different segments of the existing roadways located within the Project Influence Area and those of along the Proposed PPP Projects. Without the Project

With the Project

% Impact

Alabang to Susana Heights

183908

161645

-12%

Susana Heights to Southwoods

181415

162439

-10%

Southwoods to Carmona

154999

132700

-14%

Carmona to Greenfields

150269

130885

-13%

Greenfields to Sta. Rosa

112974

103018

-9%

Sta. Rosa to Eton

152236

145378

-5%

Eton to Cabuyao

138770

133682

-4%

Cabuyao to Canlubang

136499

133682

-2%

Canlubang to Calamba

133146

132827

0%

Calamba to Sto. Tomas

83239

81603

-2%

Alabang to San Pedro

89145

72410

-19%

San Pedro to Binan

66477

52338

-21%

Binan to Sta. Rosa

42899

36789

-14%

Sta. Rosa to Cabuyao

47204

28389

-40%

Cabuyao to Canlubang

53136

50124

-6%

Canlubang to Calamba

41863

38279

-9%

48030

25637

-47%

Road Section South Luzon Expressway

Manila South Road

Calamba-Sta. Cruz – Famy Road Calamba to Los Ba!os

There will be an average of 12% or around 20,000 vpd reductions in traffic volume along the South Luzon Expressway from Alabang to Greenfields area in Mamplasan, Bi !an while there will be an average of 4% or 2000 vpd reduction from Bi !an to Calamba, all in Laguna. Along the Manila South Road or National Road, average traffic volume reduction is 18% or around 15,000 vpd from Alabang to Sta. Rosa while a remarkable 40% or around 19,000 vpd reduction in traffic volume along the segment, Sta. Rosa to Cabuyao. Along the Calamba to Los Ba !os Expressway, there will be a significant 47% or around 23,000 vpd reduction in traffic volume along the existing National Road. With the planned development of around 7,000 hectares of land at Canlubang and Silang areas, the developers have indicated the need to expand the South Luzon Expressway from three (3) lanes to JF Cancio & Associates

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FINAL REPORT


four (4) lanes each direction. The LLED, on the other hand, will serve proposed land development along its corridor. TECHNICAL DUE DILIGENCE

The technical due diligence undertaken for the Project included the conduct of supplemental topographic and bathymetric surveys and soil investigations. The topographic and bathymetric surveys were undertaken to establish the location of the proposed expressway dike in terms of horizontal and vertical alignment along the lake offshore and shoreland areas while the soil investigation was conducted to determine the capacity of the existing soil formation to accommodate future horizontal and vertical developments. From the results of the soils investigations and from those that were undertaken during the business case studies, the foundation system for the vertical structures and waterway and expressway travelway structures should be installed with piles, preferably bored piles with length from 20 meters to 30 meters . In identifying material sources for the construction of the proposed project components specifically the fill materials for the reclamation development and expresswaydike, the results of previous comprehensive soil exploration in Year 1991 were referred to inasmuch as the scope covered almost the entire Laguna Lake area. The previous material source exploration indicated positive results and from the findings, it was estimated that around 220 million cubic meters of sands and fill materials exist along the areas identified. As of the moment, the locations of potential source of fill materials have yet to be exploited such that these materials are still available for use in the proposed reclamation project. It is intended that all materials will be sourced from the vicinity of the Project area preferably within the Lake to minimize disturbance to communities that will be affected by the transport of materials which could come from other areas. Furthermore, the system of sourcing materials from the Lake area is the most economical as compared to transporting them by trucks from inland sources as the latter will eventually damage existing pavements and create traffic congestion along the routes. The hydrologic analysis of the Project area as well the hydraulic analysis and design of the required structures for the expresswaydike and flood control system reveal that the height of the lake water will increase by 0.01 meter if the proposed reclamation development and expressway dike will be installed inside the Laguna Lake area while maintaining the Lake water level with pumping facilities at Elev. 12.5 between the shoreland and expressway dike. This will result in a maximum of 0.08meter increase in the level of the Lake water. These observations will require the provision of sixteen (16) waterway openings where sluice gates will be installed while eight (8) regulation ponds will be provided beside the pump stations along the lakeshore expressway dike. The flood control system was designed at a 60- year return period in accordance with the Master Plan for Flood Control and Management in Metro Manila while the reclamation development and expressway dike components were designed with a minimum finished grade elevation of 15.20 meters or one (1) meter above the identified maximum flood level of 14.20 meters at 100 Year return period. From the results of the technical due diligence supported by field surveys and investigations, the other components of the expressway dike were developed to include the pavement structure component, Interchanges and link roads, rest areas and appurtenant traffic safety devices. The proposed reclamation development will entail a project cost of PhP 57.9 Billion while the expresswaydike to include the flood control system will cost PhP 64.9 Billion, both at 2013 prices. Construction will take six (6) years after a design period of one (1) year. BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS

Research made on the current real property trend in Metro Manila indicates encouraging results. Interviews with large real estate developers also reveal positive results as far as the market trend on JF Cancio & Associates

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FINAL REPORT


real estate development and selling are concerned. The continuous rise in real estate development could be attributed to the steady expansion of the Philippine economy despite of damages sustained by some parts of the country due to severe climatic phenomenon and other natural disasters that have occurred in the country recently. With continuous population growth as well as continuing growth in the per capita income buoyed by increasing overseas employment and remittance, increase in real estate demand could be anticipated. Based on its location and development in the Project’s vicinity, the proposed LLED Reclamation landform shall consist of seven (7) reclaimed islands, each of which shall be of approximately one hundred hectares (100.0 has.) in surface area and located within distinct city waters i.e., two (2) islands for Taguig City, one (1) island for Parañaque City and four (4) islands for Muntinlupa City. The 700.0 has. gross reclamation area is to be approved by the LLDA, but that can still be increased if it fulfills the requirements set by the LLDA in consideration of possible impact areas i.e. the current total LLED gross reclamation area of 700.0 has. must fully comply with pre-set LLDA conditions. While it is desirous for the intended 700.0 has. LLED reclamation development not to directly compete with other large developments in the MMA, the following basic types of development must be fully planned for (and possibly be designated as the primary development magnets or centerpieces), to wit: 1. 2. 3. 4.

high-density residential; business/ office/ commercial; transportation- or transit-oriented developments; and leisure, recreational and selected indoor/ outdoor recreational or entertainment facilities.

The LLED Reclamation structure will be a combination of geometric and curvilinear RROW and pedestrian corridor patterns linking the various LLED Reclamation development clusters. The curvilinear road system is preferred to a gridiron development pattern to create better vistas and variegated viewing experiences of both the remaining natural and the proposed built environments. The RROWs strive to maximize lot frontages or face the esplanades across and along the water edge. At least four (4) main bridges, excluding possible outdoor mall bridges (solely for pedestrians) shall link the 5 islands. A ferry terminal can be introduced in the island at Muntinlupa City which shall host the main CBD. To initially gauge the acceptability of the proposed project, a preliminary market sounding was undertaken with a number of potential investors, developers, toll operators, and financial institutions The results of the preliminary market sounding indicate that while the proposed development of the reclamation project is acceptable from the viewpoint of the prospective proponents and investors, there are, likewise reservations expressed in terms of technical, marketability and environmental aspects. There were reclamation projects implemented around the country but mostly located near the seashore. First of its kind, a pioneering project around an existing lake, which is considered as environmentally critical location and being administered by a number of local government officials with differing opinions and perspectives, the Project will face some serious and tough challenges during development and implementation stages. The proposed project is envisioned as a high end development similar to the Bonifacio Global City and Makati CBD such that the lots to be generated by the land development will be offered at an initial selling price of PhP 55,000.00 to 75,000.00 per square meter , which when subjected to financial analysis would produce encouraging results for the prospective developers to consider. ECONOMIC EVALUATION

Road infrastructure projects, such as the one being analyzed, yield a multitude of benefits to the users of both the new and the existing road network which cannot be quantified in the financial analysis. This includes stimulation of inter-regional development, reduction in traffic congestion, savings in


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FINAL REPORT

vehicle operating expense, savings in travel time, improvement in traffic safety and savings due to avoided flooding. The economic evaluation used is in accordance with the methodology for economic feasibility studies for road infrastructure projects of the Philippine Government. The analysis employs the with- and without-the-project approach. The economic internal rate of return (EIRR) is the principal quantitative tool used for measuring the project’s economic feasibility and is complemented by the net present value (NPV) of the project and the benefit-cost ratio. Financial investments and operating costs are converted into economic values by excluding transfer payments such as taxes and applying a shadow price to all foreign exchange components and to the cost of labor. The project evaluation period considered is thirty (30) years. The total economic cost of the project is estimated at PhP 121,974 million, the breakdown of which is presented by Table 6.1. Table 6.1: Total Economic Cost, In PhP Million Cost Items

1. 2. 3. 4.

Project Construction Detailed Design Construction supervision Independent consultant

5.

Agency supervision

6. Physical Contingency 7. Land Acquisition Grand Total

Expressway-Dike

Reclamation

Total

56,398 1,484 1,484 990

49,145 1,345 1,345 897

105,543 2,830 2,830 1,886

143

1,146

1,289

2,820 2,154 65,473

2,623

5,443 2,154 121,974

56,502

The main economic benefits from the Project will be in the form of (a) reductions in vehicle operating costs (expressed in Net Present Value, of PhP5,071 million) due to faster travel speeds and (b) savings in travel time (expressed in Net Present Value, of PhP8,653 million), likewise due to faster travel speeds. The Project also includes a flood control component which is designed to reduce if not to eliminate flooding within low-lying areas close to the Laguna Lake. Due to the flood control component of the Project, economic benefits will also be generated in the form of (a) reduction in flood damages on properties (estimated at PhP 6,007 million per year and an NPV of PhP 20,017 million including indirect benefits), and (b) increase in land productivity in the affected area due to its protection from flooding (estimated at about PhP 31,200 million at the start of the Project operation period, or a Present Value of PhP 10,199 million). The Reclamation Component will provide the land spaces which will generate significant benefits to the regional and national economy. These economic benefits are provided in terms of the value-added from the productivity of the new land created by the reclamation (considering the schedule of sales of the reclaimed land (initially at PhP 55,000 per square meter) over the 15-year period, the Present Value of the yearly land productivity values is PhP 118,825 million). The economic benefit for the project was computed based on 2013 base and constant prices. The computation used the traffic forecast using PhP7.00 base toll when the project is completed. The expressway-dike was evaluated independently (without the reclamation component) and the results of the evaluation suggest that the expressway-dike by itself is economically viable with an EIRR of 15.20%. The results of the evaluation further indicates, that when taken as a whole project, the expresswaydike and the reclamation component, project is considered economically viable with an EIRR of 27.20%.


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FINAL REPORT


Sensitivity tests performed on the Project reveal that even at the worst scenario of 20% increase in costs and a simultaneous 20% decrease in benefits, the LLEDP would still remain economically feasible at 19.00% EIRR . FINANCIAL EVALUATION

As a revenue-generating public sector project, the project’s financial viability is measured by its computed financial internal rate of return (FIRR). The project is considered financially viable if its FIRR is at least equal to the cost of capital used to implement it. Costs and revenues used in the calculation of the FIRR are in current prices for them to be comparable to the cost of capital, also expressed in current prices. The computed FIRR will indicate the commercial viability of the project and will specify whether or not the project needs government financial support. The evaluation is anchored on the premise that the project will be implemented and operated through a PPP scheme, particularly under the Build-Transfer-Operate (BTO) arrangement. The estimated investment requirement for the expressway-dike is PhP 83.369 billion. This includes right- of- way (ROW) acquisition costs and allowances for price increase due to inflation. On the other hand, the estimated total investment requirement for the land reclamation component of the project is PhP 74.624 billion. These amounts incorporate cost of physical and price contingencies, as well as allowances for price increase due to inflation. These cost components are expected to be financed by the private sector, excluding 50% of the cost of the Independent Consultant which will be financed by the Government. The private funds will be sourced from investors’ equity and from borrowings, with an assumed equity-loan mix of 30%-70%, which is the usual current practice. The project has both operating and maintenance costs and non-operating expenses. Operating and maintenance costs for the Expressway Dike include the cost of personnel services, repair and maintenance of the expressway, floodgates and inland channel, the cost of utilities, administrative and other miscellaneous expenses. For the reclamation component, the operating and maintenance costs include the marketing cost and transfer cost, which incorporates the cost of transferring land titles. Marketing cost is assumed to be at 10% of sales, while transfer cost is estimated at 7% of sales. These costs are first estimated in 2013 prices and are converted to current prices by assuming an annual inflation rate of 5%. These costs are first estimated in 2013 prices and are converted to current prices by assuming an annual inflation rate of 5%. Revenues from expressway dike operation will mainly be generated from toll fees. These are calculated based on projected vehicle traffic volumes and proposed toll rates, which correspond to PhP 7.00 per kilometer for Class 1 vehicles in Year 2020 inflated at the rate of 5% per year until Year 2022, start of operation. Aside from this, other sources of revenues will be from commercial areas that will be made available for food and service concessioners. On the other hand, revenues from the land reclamation component will then mainly be generated from land sales, which will start at PhP 55,000 per square meter but expected to increase by about Php11,786 annually, until the lot price reaches four times its original value in 2033 –PhP 220,000, based on the result on the results of the market study conducted for the Project. The results of the financial evaluation performed for the proposed Expressway- Dike component alone indicate a low equity IRR of 7.04% , which suggests that the implementation of the proposed Project will not be financially viable unless financial support is provided. For the reclamation component, the equity IRR is 32.6% with NPV of PhP 24.92 Billion. Considering Concessionaire and Government’s investment, the Project equity IRR is 19.93%, which shows that earnings from this component could support the development works of the Expressway Dike. Evaluating the Project as a whole, the Equity IRR is 18.95% .


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FINAL REPORT

A stakeholders’ analysis was performed and the results indicate that each stakeholder will have high Equity IRR and NPV as presented hereafter. Stakeholders’ Analysis

Net Present Value (Net in Cash and Cash Equivalent) Equity IRR

LLDA/PRA (net of remittance to National Treasury, with assumed water rights value)

Concessionaire

National Government

"10,946,714,214

"136,880,235,284

"5,111,777,533

"9,277,079,075

18.95%

56.63%

19.96%

91.76%

LGUs

SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT

Environmental concerns that were observed during the surveys and investigations of the Project area g and the proposed mitigating and enhancement measures are presented hereafter. Pre-Construction and Construction Phases Impacts

Duration and Type of Impacts

Geology Ground Shaking Possible occurrence of high magnitude earthquake due to close proximity of known active earthquake generators such as the WVF and the EVF Seiche Possible occurrence of seiche which can lead to flooding at the impacted site or wave force may cause erosion and damage to shoreline structures

Intensity of Impacts

Mitigation/Enhancement Measures

Long-term, Negative

Significant

•

Short-term, Negative

Significant

•

• •

•

•

• • •

•

•

Ground Subsidence Liquefaction High intensity earthquakes cause ground subsidence Potential occurrence of liquefaction triggered rhythmic pounding during driving

and

Significant

•

will soil by pile

Geology Ground Subsidence and Liquefaction High intensity earthquakes will cause ground subsidence JF Cancio & Associates

Long-term, Negative

•

•

Long-term, Negative

Significant

•

•

Undertake a site specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) as part of the engineering design study to estimate the Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) and the Design Basis Earthquake (DBE) Formulation of earthquake/seiche disaster preparedness plan; Identification of refuge areas; Identification of refuge structures (both private and public); Construction of earthquake resilient and erosion resilient shoreline wall and or revetments; Establishment/propagation of "green belt" in the lake side of the project corridor by introducing swamp vegetation e.g. nipa, marsh etc.; Designation of escape routes; Sieche warnings; Community Preparedness for Earthquake Resiliency; Development of highly resilient coastal protection facilities; and Raise Disaster Awareness (Practice-PracticePractice) Review various literatures, maps, and records relevant to the site and area's geology, hydrogeology/hydrology, history of land subsidence and fissure formation; Review LSD which may indicate past land subsidence; Review available maintenance records of nearby wells for signs of subsidence related damage; Review available historic water-level data and subsurface units from well driller’s logs for nearby water wells; Analysis of RSD including interpretation of

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FINAL REPORT

Impacts



Potential occurrence of soil liquefaction triggered by rhythmic pounding during pile driving


•

•

Water Quality Increased siltation / water column turbidity

Long-term, Negative

Significant

•

•

•

Freshwater Ecology Plankton communities Increase in turbidity in the water column would slightly increase the mortality rates among fish larvae/juveniles including other planktonic organisms Freshwater Ecology Soft Bottom Benthic Communities Complete smothering and burying of a ll benthic organisms at the footprint of the expressway road dike project and reclamation area.

Fishes and Invertebrates Increased siltation and turbidity would cause adult fish to JF Cancio & Associates


Significant

•

•


Adverse/ Significant

•

•

Short-term, Negative (Localized)

Minimal

•

aerial photographs for terrain features relevant to subsidence and fissures. Undertake surface investigation to include mapping of geologic and soil units, fissures, faults or other geologic structures, geomorphic features and surfaces, deformation of engineered structures due to land subsidence or earth fissures both on and beyond the site as appropriate; and Undertake subsurface investigation. Below ground soil improvement techniques include but not limited to: vertical drains, sand compaction piles, and the lime/ceme nt deep mixing method. Above ground soil improvement techniques shall include MSE embankments, granular or sand compaction piles, vertical drains, and the lime/cement deep mixing method, piling and micro piling, replacement of unsuitable material including sand compaction piles, rod (vibro) compaction, sand drains and preloading This impact is expected to last in the duration of the construction period. Adoption of best engineering practices and mitigation measures/structures to include the following is recommended: ! choice of appropriate reclamation procedures; ! provision of settling basin; ! full construction of revetment or containment structure prior to filling; ! construction of a wall to protect the project from wave action and siltation; ! proper implementation of existing mandated environmental rules and regulations and preservation requirements / guidelines; and ! use of geotextile silt screens/curtains Work gap- reclamation/landfilling and piling activities may not be carried out 24 hours a day to allow the settling of suspended sediment particles so that TSS levels would remain acceptable (lower TSS concentrations); and Construction activities must be monitored vigorously and comprehensively This impact is expected to last until the duration of the construction period. Adoption of best engineering practices and mitigation measures/structures is highly recommended; Use of geotextile silt screens/curtains to reduce turbidity

Unavoidable but temporary in nature. Benthic organisms can easily re-colonize in undisturbed and un-reclaimed areas; Complete recovery rates of soft bottom benthic communities are partly a function of habitat type and depth and could be attained within a year or two Use of geotextile silt screens/curtains is highly recommended minimize effect of among smaller fish species and macro invertebrate

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FINAL REPORT

Impacts

migrate to other suitable areas. Smaller species that are unable to migrate would chronically exposed to high turbidity may suffocate as their gills become clogged with sediments Fish Capture Fishery Disruption of fishing activities on some fisherfolks




populations (clam, snail, shrimp)


Negligible

•

•

•

Fish Pens and Fish Cages Some fishpens and fish cages are probably placed along the proposed route of the dike expressway project and they are likely to be affected by the construction activities

Short-tern, Negative

Minimal

Protected Area/Fish Sanctuary Possible loss/destruction and/or damage the designated protected area/fish sanctuary at Brgy. Bucaland Pansol(Calamba City) due to the likely encroachment of the proposed road dike route Air Quality Possible increase in the level of particulate matter (PM10) at the construction sites and adjacent areas, particularly at dust pollution sensitive receptors areas due to bulldozing, stripping, earthmoving and other related activities

Long-term, Negative

Significant

•


Minimal

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

Possible increase in the concentration levels of SO2 and NO2 due to exhaust gas emissions from various construction vehicles, equipment, and machineries


Minimal

•

•

•

Noise Level and Vibration Possible increase in the noise level in the area due to operation of various construction equipment JF Cancio & Associates


Minimal

•

The required safety exclusion zone will not reduce their income since they can move to the adjacent fishing ground; A required safety exclusion zone along the construction area will be recommended to create a fishing ground to the affected fisher folks; and Since the construction will be in phases, Affected fisher folks can temporarily move to neighbouring fishing grounds to continue their activities (with due approval from FARMC of neighbouring cities/municipality) A detailed physical inventory of these aquaculture structures along the route of the proposed expressway dike project is recommended. Relocation of the affected fish cages at belts established the LLDA

Location/distance of the proposed expressway dike project must be at least 1 km away from the shoreline of Brgy. Bucaland Pansol, Calamba City

Exposed and cleared construction areas will be regularly sprayed with water to minimize dust re-suspension; A 20 kph speed limit along the construction areas, particularly at dust pollution sensitive receptor areas will be strictly enforced; Temporary stockpiles of un-recycled materials and construction spoils will be covered with tarpaulin or sack materials to prevent resuspension of particulate matters; Construction spoils will be regularly hauled and disposed to areas duly-approved by the DENR and/or concerned LGUs; and Delivery and hauling trucks will be provided with tarpaulin or sack material to minimize dust re-suspension PMS of construction equipment, machineries, and vehicles will be strictly complied with to ensure these are in good working condition at all times; and Daily routine check-up of construction vehicles, equipment, and machineries must be strictly complied with; Quarterly SO2 and NO2 sampling at air pollution sensitive areas will be conducted during the pre-construction and construction phases of the project Noise suppressors will be installed to construction equipment and machineries whenever necessary to maintain noise generated

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FINAL REPORT

Impacts



and machineries, particularly at noise sensitive receptor areas


•

•

•

The People SECTOR: LANDOWNER, STRUCTURE OWNERS (Direct) Loss of land to be acquired for widening of access roads going to and from the expressway dike Increase in value of remaining land due to advantage of frontage SECTOR: FISH CAGE OPERATORS (Direct) Loss of fish cage structures along the belt where expressway dike will be constructed

Long-term, Negative

Low

•

Long-term, Negative

High

•

Long-term, negative

Low

at permissible level; High noise generating construction activities will be undertaken during the daytime only to minimize noise disturbance to nearby residential and other noise sensitive receptors areas; Construction areas must be enclosed with metal sheets to contain noise within the site and maintain noise level at permissible limit; and PMS of the construction equipment and machineries will be strictly complied with to ensure that these are in good working conditions at all times

Payment of compensation at fair market values for land and at replacement cost for structures Carefully plan configuration of lot to be acquired so that remaining portion would still have high economic value

FOR LEGAL/REGISTERED STRUCTURES: Payment of fish cage structures at replacement cost as defined in the Implementing Rules and Regulations of R. A. 8974 Relocation of fish cages at LLDA specified sites FOR ILLEGAL/UNREGISTERED STRUCTURES: Payment of fish cage structures at replacement cost as defined in the Implementing Rules and Regulations of R. A. 8974 FOR LEGAL/REGISTERED STRUCTURES: Careful planning and coordination between LLDA and Construction Contractors to achieve shortest possible transition period •

•

•

Loss of income from fish cage operations during transition period from dismantling to relocation SECTOR: INFORMAL SETTLERS (Direct) Loss of residential structures of informal settlers occupying the lakeshore areas

Short-term, negative

High

Long-term, Negative

High

•

IF VALUE OF STRUCTURE # P250,000 Provide in-City relocation to avoid disruption of livelihood activities and social networks Assist the IS families access Community Mortgage Program (CMP) for the relocation house and lot IF VALUE OF STRUCTURE > P250,000 Cash compensation at replacement cost as defined in the Implementing Rules and Regulations of R. A. 8974 •

•

•

SECTOR: LESSEES OF SHORELAND AREAS (Direct) Loss of residential /commercial/ recreational structures of LLDA Lessees along the shoreland areas

Long-term, Negative

High

To be clarified with LLDA, due to Section 4 of Board Resolution 283 Series of 2006, which states that if the reclaimed area will be needed by the LLDA or the National Government or any of its instrumentality for a project with greater benefits/impacts, the ownership of the facilities/structures as well as the reclaimed area, except those within titled property, shall revert to LLDA. SECTOR: FISHER FOLKS, AND OTHER CATCH FISH SECTORS (Indirect) JF Cancio & Associates

•

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FINAL REPORT

Impacts

Loss of fishing grounds in the Taguig-Muntinblupa area due to the reclamation project

The People Loss of income due to reclamation of land in Taguig and Muntinlupa

Duration and Type of Impacts Long-term, Negative

Intensity of Impacts High


FOR TAGUIG & MUNTINLUPA FISHER FOLKS: Provision of alternative livelihood such as the construction of a fish port and cold storage facility, in between Taguig and Muntinlupa. Port shall be managed and operated by a Cooperative consisting of displaced fisher folks of Taguig and Muntinlupa •

Long-term, Negative

High

Formulation of Livelihood Restoration and Improvement Program as part of the Final Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) to be prepared after the Detailed Engineering Design Possible loss of, or damage to fish Long-term, High Realignment of the expressway dike to maintain sanctuary in Calamba Negative at least 1.0 km distance from the fish sanctuary in Calamba SECTOR: FISHER FOLKS, AND OTHER CATCH FISH SECTORS (Indirect) Reduction of fish catch in the Long-term, High Unavoidable, but temporary. Clarity of water shallow portions of the lake due to Negative will return to normal after a few months, or turbidity of water during after reclamation of land for dike, whichever construction comes first For eligible and interested fisher folks, priority in hiring during construction period Formulation of Livelihood Restoration and Improvement Program as part of the Draft and Final Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) to be prepared Commercial establishments to cater to needs of construction staff and crew must be open only to affected areas •

•

•

•

•

•

Demobilization / Decommissioning Phase The People Possible spread of communicable diseases due to abandoned domestic and solid wastes from the temporary sanitation facilities

Short-term, negative

High

•

•

To prevent possible spread of communicable diseases due to abandoned domestic and solid wastes the Contractors/Sub-Contractors must ensure that: ! All temporary sanitation facilities are completely and properly dismantled; and ! All domestic and solid wastes are properly disposed to disposal site/s duly approved by the concerned LGUs A joint site inspection at all work sites must be conducted by the ESHO of the Contractors, representatives from the Waste Management and Disposal Department and Health Office of the concerned LGUs, and barangay leaders of affected communities to ensure that all temporary sanitation facilities are completely dismantled and no domestic and solid wastes are abandoned

Operational Phase Land Use and Classifications Informal Settlements Once the inland from Taguig to Muntinlupa, which is roughly 120 ha ( !12 km x 100 m) dry up, the area would be prone to encroachment JF Cancio & Associates

Long-term, Negative

Significant

•

•

Reclaim land from the MLLW shoreline, and do not leave a 100-m strip of inland channel; Fence the resulting 120 ha strip, preferably utilizing green engineering technology (e.g., using trees as fence or barrier);

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FINAL REPORT

Hydrology Reduced flooding along the western urban corridor of Laguna Lake Freshwater Ecology Fishes and Invertebrates Embankment structure of the of expressway dike which is made up of rock boulders will enhancement aquatic habitat in the lake

Fish Capture Fishery Sustenance fishing operations during the lean months from November to February, which coincides with rough water conditions during this period making fishing difficult, will now be protected by the newly constructed expressway structure SECTOR: MAYNILAD (Indirect) Possible reduction in water circulation along inland channel which may cause decline in quality of water being utilized by MAYNILAD

Long-term, Positive

Significant

•

Long-term, Positive

Significant

•

Long-term, Positive

Significant

•

Long-term, Negative

High

•

Regular inspection and maintenance of the flood control facilities installed must be undertaken to ensure optimum level of service The embankment of the dike structure can act as artificial hard substrates that could attract colonization for a variety of aquatic life and provide shelter to a number of organisms. The hard substrates will also provide food and protection for numerous and diverse aquatic organisms but will also serve as attachment or substrate for attached forms; thus, these artificial hard structures will enhance the aquatic habitat in the lake No enhancement measures recommended

Extend water intake structure up to portion of lake after the dike

INSTITUTIONAL AND LEGAL ANALYSIS

The institutional and legal analysis of the Project indicates the major agencies involved as well as possible institutional and legal arrangements for the successful implementation of the Project. The major agencies involved in the Project are as follows: 1.

DPWH DPWH, by virtue of its mandate under the Administrative Code of 1987, Title V – Public Works and Highways, can undertake on its own the planning, design, construction, maintenance or operation of infrastructure projects such as but not limited to “highways, flood control and water resource development systems,” except those specialized projects undertaken by Government corporate entities.

2.

Laguna Lake Development Authority (LLDA) Under RA No. 4850, dated July 18, 1966, as amended by PD No. 813 October 17, 1975 LLDA has powers to successfully implement infrastructure projects by itself or through Public-PrivatePartnership, should LLDA wish to implement infrastructure facilities such as the project roads, flood control, land reclamation and water resource development and other related or linked projects.

3.

Philippine Reclamation Authority In the subsequent issuance, particularly Executive Order No. 380-A, it was clarified that while the PEA is renamed the Philippine Reclamation Authority (PRA), the PRA shall continue to perform the powers and functions of the PEA pursuant to PD No. 1084 (PEA Charter) as


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FINAL REPORT


amended under Executive Order No. 654, including but not limited to the functions to reclaim land, to develop, manage and dispose of lands, buildings, estates and other forms of real property arising from reclamation; to provide, operate and administer infrastructure facilities and services on the above mentioned reclaimed properties and to authorize through the rules of public bidding, reclamation projects by other entities. 4.

Toll Regulatory Board Presidential Decree No.1112, “ Authorized the Establishment of Toll Facilities on Public Improvements, Creating A Board for the Regulation thereof and For Other Purposes .” PD No. 1112 was intended “to attract private investment in the government’s infrastructure projects,” by authorizing the collection of toll fees for the use of certain public improvements, that would allow a reasonable rate of return on investments; and provided that, the collection of toll fees and operation of toll facilities by the private sector should be loosely supervised and regulated in the public interest. While PD No. 1112 provided TRB with a broad mandate as regards tollway projects, Executive Order No. 686 was issued on 19 December 1007, clarifying some basic concerns governing toll road projects under consideration.

Based on the mandate of each respective agency involved either in the development, implementation or regulation of infrastructure projects, the Proposed Laguna Lakeshore Expressway Dike Project could be implemented as follows; Project Implementation Arrangements The Project may be implemented either directly by the national government through the DPWH and/or the LLDA and the PRA; or through Public-Private-Partnership or under a Joint Venture Arrangement. Considering the limitations of the national government to fund the Project entirely through direct government appropriations, the Project may have to secure loan financing or development assistance for certain project components, such as the dike/flood control structure and the road sub-base foundation, and to encourage the private sector to finance viable aspects of the project most especially the reclamation component, including the development of the road network and surface and the required safety structures along the entire length and area of the project road. Implementation through the Public – Private – Partnership is allowed under RA 6957 as amended by R.A. No. 7718, which authorizes the financing, construction, operation and maintenance of infrastructure projects by the private sector. The law itself recognizes “the indispensable role of the private sector as the main engine for national growth and development and provide the most appropriate incentives to mobilize private resources for the purpose of financing the construction, operation, and maintenance of infrastructure and development projects normally financed and undertaken by the Government.” Contractual Agreement Structure The Project under this Contract Package will be carried out within the PPP framework in accordance with the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) Law (Republic Act or RA No. 6957, as amended by RA No. 7718) and its Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRR). In particular, the DPWH, with supporting agreements with the Laguna Lake Development Authority (LLDA) and the Toll Regulatory Board (TRB), will bid out and implement the Project using the BTO contractual arrangement or modality for the ExpresswayDike Component, and BOO or BT arrangement for the Reclamation Component. See Annex 10.1 for draft Memorandum of Agreement among the DPWH, LLDA and PRA, Annex 10.2 for draft Memorandum of Agreement among the DPWH, TRB and CMMTC (C6 Phase 2 proponent), Annex 10.3 for draft Memorandum of Agreement between DPWH and TRB, and Annex 10.4 for the Draft Transaction Documents (Invitation to Bid, Instructions to Bidders, Minimum Performance Standards and Specifications and the Concession Agreement). JF Cancio & Associates

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FINAL REPORT

Proposed Project Implementation Structure The chart depicts the Project Implementation Structure, including the main entities concerned and their responsibilities and relationships. Project Implementation Structure

OVERALL PROJECT EVALUATION

The results of the feasibility study for the Proposed Laguna Lakeshore Expressway Dike reveal that with the expresswaydike component alone, the implementation of the proposed project will not be commercially viable due to the huge investment required and the fact that the Project will include a non-revenue generating facility, a flood control system. Aside from the funds required for its construction, the flood control facility requires funds for its operation and maintenance. On the other hand, with the integration of a reclamation component, the opportunity for the proposed Project for implementation has become apparent since the revenues that could be generated from the proposed reclamation development are sufficient to finance partly the construction of the Expressway Dike. With the positive indicators from the different disciplines of the feasibility study, it is highly recommended that the approval and implementation of the Proposed Laguna Lakeshore ExpresswayDike Project be given prior consideration to attain the desired objectives of the Project and reap its expected benefits at the soonest possible time.


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Services for the Feasibility Study for the Laguna Lakeshore Expressway- Dike Project (y

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