LAPORAN PRAKTIKUM PERENCANAAN DAN PENGENDALIAN PRODUKSI
ACARA I PERAMALAN
Disusun Oleh :
Nama
: Lu’lu’atul Fatehah
NIM
: 11/318864/TP/10110 11/318864/TP/10110
Shift
: I
!" # $sis $siste ten n
: 1% 1% M"h M"h%% &i' &i'a( a(atu atull llah ah )% $*+ilian Me,asa+i
LABORATORIUM SISTEM PRODUKSI JURUSAN TEKNOLOGI INDUSTRI PERTANIAN FAKULTAS TEKNOLOGI PERTANIAN UNIVERSITAS GADJAH MADA YOGYAKARTA 2013 BAB I PENDAHULUAN
A.
Latar B!a"a#$ Pe+am Pe+amala alan n me+u me+u*a *a-a -an n a-ti a-ti.i .ita tass *ent *entin in, , (an, (an, 'ila 'ila-u -u-a -an n "leh "leh suatu suatu
*e+usahaan sea -"n'isi *e+usahaan elum tentu sama 'a+i a-tu -e a-tu% Misaln(a tin,-at *e+mintaan *+"'u- san,at mun,-in e+flu-tuatif% Ini lah (an, 'iseut 'iseut sea,ai sea,ai -eti'a-*asti -eti'a-*astian an 'alam suatu *e+usahaan% *e+usahaan% 2eti-a 2eti-a *e+usahaan *e+usahaan ti'a- mam*u menan,ani -eti'a-*astian te+seut a-ti.itas a-ti.itas (an, a'a 'alam suatu *e+usahaan se*e+ti *ena'alan *ena'alan in.ent"+i in.ent"+i *+"'u-si ti'a- a-an sin-+"n% Salah satu s"lusi 'a+i masalah te+seut 'i-enal 'en,an istilah *e+amalan% Pe+amalan a'alah suatu *+"ses untu- mem*e+-i+a-an e+a*a -eutuhan 'i masa 'atan, (an, meli*uti -eutuhan 'alam u-u+an -uantitas -ualitas a-tu 'an l"-asi l"-asi (an, (an, 'iutu 'iutuh-a h-an n 'alam 'alam +an,-a +an,-a memenu memenuhi hi *e+min *e+mintaan taan *+"'u*+"'u- 'en,an 'en,an men,,una-an 'ata hist"+is% Pe+amalan 5 forecasting me+u*a-an me+u*a-an a,ian .ital a,i setia* setia* *e+usah *e+usahaan aan sea sea mem*en mem*en,a+ ,a+uhi uhi -e*utu -e*utusan san *iha*iha- manaem manaemen en 'alam 'alam menent menentu-a u-an n alann alann(a (a *+"'u*+"'u-si% si% Pe+amal Pe+amalan an mena' mena'ii 'asa+ 'asa+ untuuntu- menent menentu-a u-an n *e+en7anaan an,-a *anan, *e+usahaan *e+en7anaan an,-a in'u- *+"'u-si *e+en7anaan -eutuhan in*ut *+"'u-si se+ta mena'i 'asa+ 'alam menentu-an an,,a+an 'an *en,en'alian 'ata% Pe+amalan ini 'iha+a*-an 'a*at menin,-at-an 'a(a sain, *e+usahaan te+ha'a* competitor 'en,an *+"'u- (an, seenis 'an 'a*at mela-u-an *en,en'alian *e+se'ian 5inventory 5 inventory control sehin,,a *e+usahaan 'a*at mema-simal-an -euntun,an 'an men,u+an,i ia(a in.ent"+i%
Pe+amalan san,at e+at -aitann(a 'en,an *e+en7anaan 'an *en,en'alian *+"'u-si 'alam suatu in'ust+i% Den,an a'an(a *e+-eman,an te-n"l",i *e+amalan 'a*at 'ila-u-an men,,una-an software% Met"'e *e+amalan (an, 'i,una-an sema-in e+a,am sesuai -"n'isi *e+usahaan% Men,in,at *entin,n(a *e+amalan ma-a mahasisa TIP 'iai-an untu- mam*u mela-u-an *e+amalan% Melalui *+a-ti-um a7a+a *e+amalan ini 'iha+a*-an mahasisa mam*u mela-u-an *e+amalan 'en,an antuan software -"m*ute+ 'an men,,una-an met"'e (an, te*at B.
T%&%a# Pra"t'"%(
1% Men,aa+-an mahasisa untu- mela-u-an *e+amalan 'en,an antuan -"m*ute+% )% Men,aa+-an mahasisa untu- memilih met"'e *e+amalan 'en,an ena+%
C.
Ma#)aat Pra"t'"%( 1% Mahasisa memahami *en,,unaan s"fta+e *e+amalan 'an mam*u
men,,una-ann(a untu- suatu -asus *e+amalan% )% Memahami e+a,ai ti*e 'ata sehin,,a 'a*at menentu-an met"'e *e+amalan (an, te*at%
BAB II TINJAUAN PUSTAKA
Pe+amalan 5 forecasting a'alah -e,iatan mem*e+-i+a-an a*a (an, a-an te+a'i *a'a masa (an, a-an 'atan, se'an,-an +en7ana me+u*a-an *enentuan a*a (an, 'ila-u-an *a'a a-tu (an, a-an 'atan,% Pe+amalan mena'i san,at *entin, -a+ena *en(usunan suatu +en7ana 'ianta+an(a 'i'asa+-an *a'a s uatu *+"(e-si atau +amalan% Pa'a ha-e-atn(a an(a- -e*utusan *entin, (an, 'ila-u-an se7a+a *+ia'i instansi mau*un *e+usahaan -e*a'a -ea'ian -ea'ian 'i masa (an, a-an 'atan, sehin,,a meme+lu-an +amalan tetntan, -ea'aan lin,-un,an masa 'e*an te+seut% Oleh -a+ena itu setia* -eia-an e-"n"mi ti'a- a-an te+le*as 'a+i usaha untu- menin,-at-an -ee+hasilan *eman,unan untu- men7a*ai tuuann(a *a'a masa (an, a-an 'atan, 'imana -eia-saaan te+seut 'ila-sana-an 5$ssau+i 14% Tuuan
*e+amalan
*a'a
'asa+n(a
a'alah
mem*e+-i+a-an
umlah
*e+mintaan 'i masa 'e*an% 9ntu- men7a*ai hal te+seut 'iha+a*-an hasil (an, 'i+amal-an men'e-ati -"n'isi seena+n(a% 2ete*atan 'an -etelitian hasil *e+amalan 'i,una-an sea,ai t"l"- u-u+ *e+f"+mansi met"'e *e+amalan (an, 'alam hal ini 'in(ata-an sea,ai -esalahan 'a+i *e+amalan% Sema-in -e7il -esalahan *e+amalan e+a+ti sema-in teliti *ula met"'e (an, 'i,una-an 'alam mela-u-an *e+amalan 5Pu+ant" 1)% Tuuan 'a+i *e+amalan a'alah untu- menentu-an umlah *e+mintaan *+"'u- *a'a masa (an, a-an 'atan,% $'a*un -e,unaan 'a+i *e+amalan a'alah 5$n"nim )013 : 1% Menentu-an esa+n(a e-s*ansi *a+i- )% Menentu-an +en7ana an,-a menen,ah *+"'u- (an, a'a 'an 'iuat 'en,an fasilias (an, a'a% 3% Menentu-an +en7ana an,-a *en'e- Lan,-ah (an, ha+us 'ila-u-an 'alam mela-u-an suatu *e+amalan a'alah 5&eie+ )001:
1% Menentu-an tuuan 'alam mela-u-an *e+amalan% )% Menentu-an atas a-tu *e+amalan% 3% Memilih m"'el *e+amalan (an, a-an 'i,una-an% 4% Men,um*ul-an 'ata (an, 'iutuh-an 'alam mela-u-an *e+amalan% ;% Men,esah-an/memasti-an m"'el *e+amalan 6% Mela-u-an *e+amalan% <% Men,u-u+ -esalahan *e+amalan 8% Mela-sana-an hasil (an, 'i*e+"leh 'a+i *e+amalan% P"la 'ata 'a*at 'ie'a-an mena'i em*at enis (aitu 5Ma-+i'a-is 188: 1% P"la &"+i"ntal 5& atau Horizontal Data Pattern P"la 'ata ini te+a'i ilamana 'ata e+flu-tuasi 'i se-ita+nilai +ata# +ata%Suatu *+"'u- (an, *enualann(a ti'a- menin,-at atau menu+un selama a-tu te+tentu te+masu- enis ini% )% P"la T+en' 5T atau Trend Data Pattern P"la 'ata ini te+a'i ilamana te+'a*at -enai-an atau *enu+unan se-ule+ an,-a *anan, 'alam 'ata% !"nt"hn(a *enualan *e+usahaan *+"'u- +ut" nasi"nal 5=NP 'an e+a,ai in'i-at"+ isnis atau e-"n"mi lainn(a selama *e+uahan se*anan, a-tu% 3% P"la Musiman 5S atau Seasional Data Pattern P"la 'ata ini te+a'i ila mana suatu 'e+et 'i*en,a+uhi "leh fa-t"+ musiman 5misaln(a -ua+tal tahun te+tentu ulan atau ha+i ha+i *a'a min,,u te+tentu% Penualan 'a+i *+"'u- se*e+ti minuman +in,an es -+im 'an ahan a-a+ *emanas +uan, semuan(a menunu-an enis *"la ini% 4% P"laSi-lis 5S atau Cyclied Data Pattern P"la
'ata ini te+a'i ilamana 'atan(a 'i*en,a+uhi "leh flu-tuasi
e-"n"mi an,-a *anan, se*e+ti (an, e+huun,an 'en,an si-lus isnis%!"nt"hn(a *enualan *+"'u- se*e+ti m"il% Te-ni- *e+amalan te+a,i mena'i 'ua 'ianta+an(a a'alah te-ni- *e+amalah se7a+a -ualitatif (a-ni *e+amalan (an, meliat-an *en'a*at *+ia'i *en'a*at ahli met"'e Del*hi *enelitian *asa+ 'an lain lain% Penelitian ini e+tuuan untu- men,,aun,-an selu+uh inf"+masi (an, 'i*e+"leh se7a+a l",i-a
'an sistematis (an, 'ihuun,-an 'en,an fa-t"+ -e*entin,an si *en,amil -e*utusan% Se'an,-an te-ni- *e+amalan se7a+a -uantitatif a'alah *e+amalan (an, 'i,una-an *a'a saat 'ata masa lalu 7u-u* te+se'ia% >ee+a*a te-ni- -uantitatif (an, se+in, 'i,una-an a'alah se*e+ti met"'e exponential smoothing moving average, linier regretion, 'an lain lain 5=as*e+s )004% Pe+amalan 'en,an time se+ies memili-i *+"se'u+ (an, ha+us 'ila-sana-an se7a+a utuh% >ila ti'a- ma-a +esi-"#+esi-" e+i-ut a-an te+a'i 5>uffa 1<: 1% )%
&asil *e+amalan ti'a- .ali' sehin,,a ti'a- 'a*at 'ite+a*-an% 2esulitan men'a*at atau memilih met"'e *e+amalan (an, a-an
meme+i-an .ali'itas +amalan tin,,i% 3% Meme+lu-an a-tu 'alam mela-u-an analisis 'an *e+amalan% ali'asi met"'e *e+amalan te+utama 'en,an men,,una-an met"'e met"'e 'i atas ti'a- 'a*t le*as 'a+i in'i-at"+ in'i-at"+ 'alam *en,u-u+an a-u+asi *e+amalan% >a,aimana*un u,a te+'a*at seumlah in'i-at"+ 'alam *en,u-u+an a-u+asi *e+amalan namun (an, *alin, umum 'i,una-an a'alah Mean Asol!te Deaviation 5M$D Mean Asol!te Percentage "rror 5M$P? 'an Mean S#!ared "rror 5MS?% $-u+asi Pe+amalan a-an sema-in tin,i a*aila nilai M$D M$P? 'an MS? sema-in -e7il 5Dil"+th 16% Peta M".in, @an,e 'i+an7an, untu- meman'in,-an nilai *e+mintaan a-tual 'en,an nilai *e+amalan% Den,an -ata lain 'a*at melihat 'ata *e+mintaan a-tual 'en,an meman'in,-ann(a 'en,an nilai *e+amalan *a'a *e+i"'e (an, sama% Peta teseut 'i-eman,-an -e *e+i"'e (an, a-an 'atan, hin,,a 'a*at meman'in,-an 'ata *e+amalan 'en,an *e+mintaan a-tual% Peta M".in, @an,e 'i,una-an untu- *en,uian -estailan s(stem sea a-iat (an, mem*en,a+uhi *e+mintaan 5&an-e1)%
BAB III METODE PRAKTIKUM
A.
A!at *a# Ba+a# $lat : 1% 2"m*ute+/La*t"* )% S"fta+e AinBS> >ahan : 1% Set Data
B.
Pr,-*%r Pra"t'"%(
1% Ditentu-an tuuan *e+amalan 5+amalan *enualan )% Ditentu-an an,-a a-tu *e+amalan 56 ulan -e 'e*an 3% Di-um*ul-an 'an 'ianalisis 'ata a% Di*l"t-an 'ata *enualan a-tual *+"'u- 1 *+"'u- ) 'an *+"'u- 3 selama 36 *e+i"'e *a'a Ms% ?C7el% % Diuat ,+afi- 'a+i masin,#masin, 'ata a-tual te+seut% 7% Diamati *"la *e+uahann(a a*a-ah e+*"la -"nstan t+en' atau musiman% 4% Ditentu-an te-ni- *e+amalan (an, sesuai 'en,an *"la 'ata (an, a'a a% i-a 'ata -"nstan/+an'"m 5*+"'u- 1 men,,una-an met"'e simple average adaptive exponential smoothing 'an linear regression% % i-a 'ata t+en' 5*+"'u- ) men,,una-an met"'e moving average with linear trend, exponential smoothing with linear trend, 'an linear regression% 7% i-a 'ata musiman 5*+"'u- 3 men,,una-an met"'e inte+’s% ;% Dila-u-an *e+amalan 'en,an 7a+a sea,ai e+i-ut : a% Dialan-an *+",+am AinBS> % Di*ilih EF"+e7astin, an' Linie+ @e,+essi"n 7% Pa'a menu EFile 'i*ilih *ilihan ENe P+"lem 'an 'iisi-an : 1 Pa'a menu P+"lem t(*e GTime Se+ies an' F"+e7astin,% ) Pa'a menu P+"lem title GPe+amalan 3 Time unit G M"nth 4 Nume+ "f time units 5Pe+i"'s G 36 ; P+"lem t(*e G Time se+ies 6 2li- EO2
'% Dimasu--an 'ata *enualan (an, a'a *a'a a+is (an, te+se'ia% e%
Disim*an 'ata te+seut
f% Dalam menu ES"l.e an' anal(se 'i-li- EPe+f"+m f"+e7astin,% ,% Dalam EF"+e7astin, Meth"' 'i*ilih 'ua 5) met"'e (an, 'ian,,a* sesuai untu- masin,#masin, 'ata *+"'u- 'i atas 5*+"'u- 1 ) 'an 3% h% Dalam EMeth"' *a+amete+s 'i*ilih Eassi,n .alues untu- nilai (an, su'ah 'i-etahui atau 'i*ilih Esea+7h f"+ the est untu- *en7a+ian te+ai- "leh -"m*ute+% i%
Dalam Esea+7h !+ite+i"n 'i*ilih EM$D %
Dalam Enume+ "f *e+i"'s f"+e7ast isi-an an,-a 6 untu- me+amal-an enam *e+i"'e -e'e*an%
-% Diisi-an 'ata (an, lain sesuai 'en,an met"'e *e+amalan (an, 'i*ilih% l%
Di-li- EO2 ma-a hasil *e+amalan a-an 'i*e+"leh m% 9ntu- melihat ,ama+ hasil *e+amlan -li- ESh" F"+e7astin, in =+a*h
6% Diu-u+ -esalahan a% Dian'in,-an nilai M$D 'a+i setia* hasil *e+amalan met"'e (an, 'i,una-an% % Di,una-an u-u+an Mean $s"lute De.iati"n 5M$D (an, te+-e7il untu- memilih met"'e *e+amalan (an, te+ai-% <% Di.e+ifi-asi *e+amalan Di,una-an f"+mula T+a7-in, Si,nal 5TS H3 untu- mem.e+ifi-asi met"'e *e+amalan (an, 'i*ilih 'an 'ila-u-an analisis untu- hasil *e+amalan masin,#masin, *+"'u-% BAB IV HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN
A.
Ha-'! 1. =+afi- Data $-tual
Produk 1 280 270 260
produk 1
250 240 230 220 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
=+afi- 1 2e7en'e+un,an Data untu- P+"'u- 1
Produk 2 500 400 300
Produk 2
200 100 0 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
=+afi- ) 2e7en'e+un,an Data untu- P+"'u- )
Produk 3 400 350 300 250
Produk 3
200 150 100 50 0 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
=+afi- 3 2e7en'e+un,an Data untu- P+"'u- 3 2. Tael $orecast a. Tael $orecast P+"'u- 1 'en,an men,,una-an met"'e Simple Average Forecast Result for peramal an 11-152013 Actual #ont $ata 1 250 2 250
Foreca st b %A
Foreca st "rror
!F"
#A$
#AP" &'(
#%"
250
0
0
0
0
270
250
20
10
200
4
245
256.66 67
20 11.666 7
0 3.7037 04
5
255
253.75
1.25
6
250
7
260
254 253.33 33
10.555 55 8.22/1 64 7.3833 31 7.2638 88
178.70 36 134.41 84 110.73 47 //.686 32
4.0564 36 3.1648 76 2.851/ 01 2.803/ 35
240
254.28 57
-4 6.6666 72 14.285 7
8.3333 44 /.5833 44 5.5833 44 12.250 02 2.0357 1
114.6
3.2537 13
3
8
8.2670 07
)rack*n + %*+nal 0 2 0.78/4 75 1.1645 5/ 0.7562 0/ 1.6864 27 0.2462 4
/
260
10
255
11
250
12
255
13
270
252.5 253.33 33
7.5 1.6666 72
253.5 253.18 18 253.33 33
-3.5 1.8181 76 16.666 67 /.6153 / 1.0714 26
14
245
15
255
254.61 54 253./2 86
16
258
254
4
17
260
254.25
250
254.58 82
5.75 4.5882 4 /.3333 3 3.8421 1.3500 06 1.2857 21 13.772 7 3.173/ 2 3.0416 7
18
254.33 33 253.84 21
1/
245
20
250
21
255
22
255
253.65 253.71 43
240
253.77 27
250
253.17 3/
25
250
253.04 17
26
265
252./2
250
253.38 46
240 255
253.25 /3 252.78
23
24
27
28 2/
12.08 3.3846 1 13.25/ 3 2.2142
5.4642 /4 7.130/ 66 3.630/ 66 5.44/1 42 22.115 81
8.1711 31 7.4484 13 7.0535 72 6.5776 27 7.4183 81
107.30 62 /5.6/1 /5 87.347 75 7/.707 57 /6.213 43
3.2075 76 2./238 2.7714 2 2.5842 /2 2.8833 38
0.6687 32 0./573 81 0.5147 7 0.8284 36 2./812 1/
12.500 43 13.571 85 17.571 85 23.321 85
7.5873 81 7.121/ 56 6./138 26 6.8410 86
/5./24 38 8/.154 63 84.277 66 81.076 71
2./634 3/ 2.7817 76 2.6//6 84 2.66/1 75
1.6475 2/ 1./056 36 2.5415 53 3.40/0 86
18.733 61
6.7085 66
77.545 84
2.6201 23
2.7/24 /1
/.4002 84 5.5581 82 6./081 88 8.1/3/ 0/ 5.5788 1 8.7527 3 11.7/4 4 0.2855 // 3.0//0 1 16.358 3 -
6.8543 86 6.6/58 45 6.4285 53 6.1836 56
78.077 24 74.744 84 71.0/8 73 67.7/1 7/
2.6862 01 2.6257 08 2.5208 /4 2.4248 61
6.5286 14
73.332 52
2.5754 87
6.3827 58
70.582 14
2.5187 08
6.2435 46 6.4770 04
68.026 71 71.142 7
2.4644 56 2.5482 18
6.3580 66
68.847 04
2.5022 8
6.6136 66 6.4565
72.808 56 70.383
2.6142 21 2.5518
1.3714 26 0.8300 /4 1.0746 1 1.3250 /1 0.8545 2 1.3713 1 1.88/0 6 4.41"02 0.4874 1 2.4734 1 -
57
30
31
32
33
34
35
36 37 38 3/ 40 41 42
!F" #A$ #%" #AP" )rk%*+n al R-
250
252.86 21
255
252.76 67
240
252.83 87
255
252.43 75
240
252.51 52
250
252.14 71
255
252.08 57 252.16 67 252.16 67 252.16 67 252.16 67 252.16 67 252.16 67 36.7/6 / 6.2530 3/ 66.42/ 84 2.486/ 62 5.8846 4 0.0424
7/ 2.8620 8 2.2333 37 12.838 7
2.5625 12.515 2 2.1470 6 2./142 /1
14.144 17.006 1 14.772 7 27.611 5 25.04/ 37.564 1 3/.711 2 36.7/6 /
44
36
68
6.3325 /7
68.238 82
2.5033 5
6.1/5/ 55
66.130 45
2.44/0 //
6.4102 38
6/.314 38
2.5426 5/
6.28// /6
67.353 52
2.4/46 04
6.4786 37
70.058 83
2.5770 3
6.3512 38
68.133 87
2.5264 /4
6.2530 3/
66.42/ 84
2.486/ 62
2.1/06 5 2.6854 8 2.3842 6 4.3074 3./823 5 5.7/81 5 6.2525 1 5.8846 4
s,uare
26
b.
Tael $orecast P+"'u- ) 'en,an men,,una-an Met"'e Do!le "xponential Smoothing with Trend
Forecast Result for peramal an 11-152013 #ont
Actual $ata 1 250
Forecast b $"%)
2
260
250
3
270
260.4
4
280
273.088
260
285.576 3
5
6
255
7
285
8
2/0
266.145 8 254.807 1 283.446 /
2/5
2/5.665 5
/
10
300
11
310
302.148 7 306./0/ 5
12
2/0
316.538
13
285
14
310
2/6.188 5 284.626 6
Foreca st "rror
10 /.6000 06 6./120 18 25.576 3 11.145 8 30.1/2 87 6.5531 31 0.6654 7 2.1486 5 3.0/05 46 26.538 11.188 5 25.373 35
!F"
#A$
#%"
#AP" &'(
)rack*n + %*+nal
10 /.8000 03 8.8373 41
100 /6.080 06 7/./78 7
3.8461 54 3.7008 56 3.2/00 /6
13.022 0/
223.52 11
4./268 34
12.646 83 15.571 17 14.282 88
203.66 27 321.65 38 281.83 81
4.8156 4/ 5.7787 06 5.275/ /
0.0718 55 0.8073 3 1.2833 18 1.8578 81
25.870 42
12.580 7
246.66 37
4.6446 /
2.0563 57
23.721 77 26.812 32 0.2743 53 10./14 2 14.45/ 17
11.421 5/ 10.588 48 12.038 44
21/.76 /6 1/8.74 78 244.70 37
4.2081 /3 3.8870 6/ 4.3656 1
11./67 61 12.//8 82
234.74 37 266.21 01
4.328/ 5/ 4.6255 74
2.076/ 24 2.5322 15 2.28"02 0./11/ 8 1.1123 45
10 1/.600 01 26.512 02
0./357 10.210 1 1/./82 76 26.535 8/
1 2 3
15
315
16
320
17
330
18
340
1/
305
20
340
21
350
22
360
23
365
24
380
25
3/0
26
400
27
420
308.063 8 31/.187 2 325.817 8 336.172 4 347.28/ 1 311.47/ 5 337.876 8 354./32 8 367./28 7 373./7/ 1 388.545 1 3//.//0 5 410.326 1
28
400
2/
425
430.715 3 411.715 5
425
430.170 1
30
31
32
33
34
430
433.024
435
436.711 /
440
440./46 7
440
445.514 4
6./362 4/ 0.8128 05 4.1821 5/ 3.8276 37 42.28/ 1 28.520 54 12.123 23 5.0671 6/ 2./287 4 6.020/ 35 1.4548 65 /.46"03 /.673/ 2 30.715 3 13.284 48 5.1700 7 3.0240 5 1.711/ 1 0./467 2 5.5144 4
21.3/5 42 22.208 22 26.3/0 38 30.218 02
12.565 78 11.782 25 11.307 24 10.867 27
250.63 17 233./6 6/ 220.43 71 208.33 21
4.4524 61 4.1725 64 3.//0/ 86 3.8224 44
12.071 16.44/ 4/ 28.572 72 33.63/ 8/
12.612 /2 13.450 16 13.383 82 12./87 7/
2/6.11 17 323.33 85 314.52 02 300.76 57
4.3803 7/ 4.5/13 27 4.534/ 5 4.3860 26
1.7026 73 1.8848 88 2.333/ 36 2.7806 46 0./570 4 1.222/ /6 2.1348 71 2.5/01 17
30.711 15 36.732 0/ 38.186 /5 38.1/6 41 47.870 33
12.530 56 12.247 53 11.7/7 84 11.326 3 11.262 75
287.48 44 276.56 12 265.12 61 254.52 1 248.33 12
4.2231 34 4.1084 0/ 3./527 68 3.7/47 52 3.7373 8/
2.450/ 01 2.///1 42 3.2367 76 3.3723 64 4.2503 24
17.155 06 30.43/ 54
11./83 21 12.02/ 6/
274.07 55 270.58 /8
3.8833 68 3.8563 11
1.4315 /1 2.5303 6/
25.26/ 47
11.7/3 15
262.18 0/
3.7652 82
2.1427 25
22.245 42
11.500 84
253.74 64
3.6632 15
1./342 43
20.533 51
11.185 07
245.65 55
3.5577 42
1.8357 /6
1/.586 7/
10.865 12
238.00 68
3.4532 87
1.8027 22
14.072 36
10.702 /8
231.71 5/
3.3866 2
1.3148 07
35
36
450
450
37 38 3/ 40 41 42
445.075 7 454.002 1 454./76 6 45/.031 2 463.085 7 467.140 2 471.1/4 8 475.24/ 3
4./243 16 4.0021 4
18.//6 67
10.533 02
225.61 4
3.31/1 /8
1.8035 35
14.//4 54
10.346 42
21/.62 55
3.24/7 75
1.44/2 48
14.//45 4 10.3464 2 21/.625 5 3.24/77 5 1.44/24 8
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Actual
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$ata 1 250
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2
255
250
3
260
4
265
258.3/3 264.483 5
5
270
6
7
8
/
10
11
2/0
26/.834 274./46 7
280
305.161 8
275
278.087
270
270.//2 2
270
265.318 /
265
268.4/5 5
12
260
13
270
14
280
15
2/0
261.123 4 255.361 1 275.2/5 288.487 8
16
285
17
2/5
2//.514 284.664 8
300
301.678 3
2/0
305.53/ 4
18
1/
&'(
+ %*+nal
s,uare
5 1.606/ /5 0.5164 8 0.165/ 85 15.053 34 25.161 8 3.0870 4 0.//21 6
5 6.606/ /5 7.1234 74 7.28/4 5/ 22.342 8 2.81/0 3 5./060 7 6.8/82 2
5 3.3034 /7 2.3744 /1 1.8223 65 4.4685 61
25 13.7/1 22 /.2830 61 6./6/1 83 50.8/5 /8
1./607 84 1.28/4 3 0./245 86 0.7088 08 1.6052 08
7./174 4
147./3 3
2.8354 02
7.2273 82
128.16 11
2.5/07 1
6.447/ 7/
112.26 4
2.3128 04
4.6811 22 3.4/54 8 1.1234 4 14.638 /2 4.704/ 56 1.5121 77
2.2171 5.7125 / 6.8360 3 7.8028 87 12.507 84 14.020 02 0.4/3/ 6 /.8412 48
6.2516 61
102.22 5
2.2484 65
5./760 44
/3.224 33
2.1555 24
5.5348 /8 6.2/35 66 6.1713 66 5.8385 66
84.864 13 /5.650 28 8/.//5 38 83.730 47
1.//88 48 2.2840 /6 2.2376 53 2.1150 67
5 0.3560 5 0.8171 8 1.06/8 3 0.3546 4 0./55/ 1 1.2350 8 1.23/8 2 2.0267 54 2.4012 78
6.416/ 27 6.6618 1/
/2.1/2 14 /3.106 16
2.3135 7 2.387/ 38
-7.70"02 1.4772 61
8.162/ /4
6.3686 6/
87.7/5 01
2.2803 78
7.3764
6.8781 53
/6.332 66
2.4513 8
1.2817 43 1.0724 4
14.514 10.335 21 1.6782 5 15.53/ 4
1 2 3 4 0.657/ 17
20
21
22
23
24
285
284.//4 4
5.62"03
285
27/.//8 2
280
283.3/2 4
275
276.0/0 3
270
270.350 4
5.0018 01 3.3/24 3 1.0/03 3 0.3504 3 5.1126 4 18.356 8 15.8// 87 4.88/7 7 8.4284 06 7.2/11 1 7.3433 5 17.360 2 0.57/5 /
25
260
26
270
27
2/0
265.112 6 251.643 2 274.100 1
28
300
2/
320
304.88/ 8 311.571 6
330
337.2/1 1
335
342.343 4
325
342.360 2
320
320.57/ 6
320
315.186 3
310
318.452 /
4.8137 21 8.4528 5
310
302.716 8
7.2832 34
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
7.3707 / 2.368/ / 5.7614 1 6.8517 5 7.2021 8 12.314 8 6.041/ 77 21./41 85
6.5164 41
/1.262 53
2.3224 64
6.4407 0/
87./50 3
2.2/40 /2
6.2/55 53
84.310 22
2.2425 43
6.058/ 52
80.531 /7
2.1586 32
5.8107 55
77.035 /3
2.0704 21
5.7816 67 6.2846 72 6.6544 88
74./15 22 85.3/7 4/ /1.836 28
2.0660 87 2.2553 /6 2.37/5 24
1.1311 1 0.3678 1 0./151 6 1.1308 5 1.23/4 6 2.12// 8 0./613 83 3.2/73 01
17.052 08 25.480 48
6.58/1 28 6.6548 16
8/.320 4/ 88.667 54
2.3517 61 2.3618 37
2.587/ 11 3.8288 7/
18.18/ 38
6.6767 57
87.443 15
2.3565 81
2.7242 83
10.846 02 6.5141 5 7.0/37 4 2.2800 1 10.732 / 3.44/6 3
6.6/8/ 77
86.325 87
2.3510 /7
7.0428 87
/3.262 /5
2.4475 64
6.840/ 0/
/0.358 //
2.3767 38
6.77/4 7/
88.323 01
2.3503
6.8286 /5
87.826 77
2.3613 71
6.8416 82
86.833 02
2.3610 3
1.61/0 57 0./24/ 3 1.036/ 6 0.3363 1 1.5717 3 0.5042 1
37 38 3/ 40 41 42 !F" #A$ #%" #AP" )rk%*+n al Rs,uare
307.65/ 1 305.318 3 302./77 4 300.636 6 2/8.2/5 7 2/5./54 / -3.44/63 6.84168 2 86.8330 2 2.36103 -0.50421
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B.
P(/a+a-a# P+a-ti-um Pe+en7anaan 'an Pen,en'alian P+"'u-si $7a+a I e+u'ul
Pe+amalan% Tuuan 'a+i *+a-ti-um ini anta+a lain men,aa+-an mahasisa untu- mela-u-an *e+amalan 'en,an antuan comp!ter 'an men,aa+-an mahasisa untu- memilih met"'e *e+amalan 'en,an ena+% Pe+amalan a'alah seni 'an ilmu mem*+e'i-si *e+istia *e+istia masa 'e*an% Pe+amalan meme+lu-an *en,amilan 'ata hist"+is 'an mem+"(e-si-ann(a -e masa 'e*an 'en,an ee+a*a m"'el matematis% Pe+amalan iasan(a 'i-el"m*"--an "leh h"+i"n a-tu masa 'e*an (an, men'asa+in (a% Pa'a *+a-ti-um -ali ini 'ila-u-an *e+amalan te+ha'a* 'ata *enualan 'a+i ti,a enis *+"'u- (an, masin, masin, set 'atan(a te+'i+i 'a+i 36 *e+i"'e% Pe+amalan (an, 'ila-u-an a'alah *e+amalan te+ha'a* *enualan suatu *+"'u- untu- enam *e+i"'e -e 'e*an 'a+i 'ata a-tual *enualan 'i masa lalu% Met"'e ini 'iseut 'en,an met"'e 'e+et a-tu 5time series'( Time series me+u*a-an met"'a (an, 'i,una-an untu- -"n'isi 'imana -ita ti'a- 'a*at menelas-an fa-t"+ a*a (an, a-an 'a*at men(ea-an te+a'in(a event (an, 'i+amal-an )lac* ox'( $nalisis ini men,,ama+-an huun,an anta+a .a+iael (an, 'i7a+i 5dependent 'en,an .a+iael (an, mem*en,a+uhin(a 5independent variale (an, 'i-ait-an 'en,an a-tu se*e+ti min,,uan ulan t+iulan 7atu+ulan semeste+ atau tahun% Lan,-ah aal (an, 'ila-u-an 'alam *+a-ti-um ini a'alah mela-u-an taulus 'ata *enualan *+"'u- 1 *+"'u- ) 'an *+"'u- 3 'en,an men,,una-an Ms%?C7el% Data (an, telah 'i-eti--an 'alam sheet Ms%?C7el te+seut -emu'ian 'i*l"t -e 'alam ,+afi- (an, men,,ama+-an huun,an anta+a umlah *enualan 'en,an *e+i"'e *enualan% Da+i ,+afi- (an, 'ihasil-an tam*a- aha *+"'u- 1 te+,"l"n, 'ata -"nstan% &al ini 'isea-an -a+ena ,+afi- (an, te+entu- mementu- *"la flu-tuatif (an, stail 'en,an range 'ata (an, +elati.e esa+% Data *+"'u- ) te+,"l"n, 'ata t+en' sea ,+afi- (an, 'ihasil-an menunu--an -e7en'e+un,an nai- se7a+a flu-tuatif% Data *+"'u- 3 te+,"l"n, 'ata musiman -a+ena ,+afi- (an, 'ihasil-an mementu- *"la +es"nansi ,el"man,% Setelah masin, masin, 'ata 'i-etahui *"lan(a setia* 'ata 'ila-u-an *e+amalann(a% Pe+amalan 'ila-u-an te+ha'a* *+"'u- 1 te+leih 'ahulu% Oleh -a+ena 'ata *+"'u- 1 me+u*a-an 'ata -"nstan ma-a te-ni- (an, 'i,una-an a'alah te-ni-
moving average% Pe+tama 'iu-a s"fta+e AinBS> a,ian forecasting 5F! and +inier egression% 2eti-a AinBS> telah a-tif selanutn(a 'i*ilih new prolem 'i menu a+ hin,,a mu7ul 'ial", "C prolem specification% P+"lem ti*e (an, 'i*ilih a'alah Time series forecasting prolem title 'iisi 'en,an *+"'u- 1 time !nit month n!mer of time !nit 5*e+i"'e 'iisi 36% Time series forescasting me+u*a-an met"'e *e+amalan (an, 'i*ilih% Prolem title a'alah u'ul 'a+i *e+amalan (an, 'iuat time unit a'alah unit a-tu (an, 'i,una-an Pa'a -asus ini (an, 'i,una-an a'alah ulan 5m"nth 'an n!mer of time !nit a'alah umlah ulan (an, 'i,una-an (aitu 36% Stelah semua te+isi 'i-li- O2% Lan,-ah selanutn(a a'alah 'imasu--an 'ata *enualan *+"'u- 1 -e 'ala m f"+m (an, mun7ul% Data 'a+i spread sheet 'i-"*i lalu f"+m 'ata 'i AINBS> 'il"- semua lalu 'item*el-an 'ata te+seut *a'a f"+m tael (an, te+se'ia% Pe+amalan 'ila-u-an 'en,an men,-li- analyze *a'a menu a+ lalu *ilih perform forecasting ma-a a-an mun7ul 'ial", "C% Pa'a forecasting method (an, 'i*ilih a'alah moving average -a+ena (an, 'i+amal-an a'alah 'ata -"nstan% Method Parameters 'iisi assign val!es search criterion 'iisi M$D n!mer of period to forecast 'iisi 6% Ini me+u*a-an umlah ulan (an, in,in 'i+amal-an% Selanun(a 'i-li- "- ma-a hasil *e+amalan a-an mun7ul 'i in'"s% 9ntu- melihat ,ama+ hasil *e+amalan 'i-li- EShow $orecating in -raph% >e+e'a haln(a 'en,an 'ata *enualan *+"'u-1 'ata *enualan *+"'u- ) me+u*a-an 'ata t+en' *"sitif sehin,,a analisi *e+amalann(a 'ila-u-an 'en,an met"'e Do!le exsponential smoothing with trend 5D?ST( Pe+tama tama 'ata a-tual *enualan *+"'u- 'a+i spread sheet 'i,an'a-an -emu'ian 'item*el-an -e AinBS> se*e+ti *a'a taha* aal *e+amalan seelumn(a% Pe+amalan 'ila-u-an 'en,an men,-li- analyze *a'a menu a+ lalu *ilih perform forecasting ma-a a-an mun7ul 'ial", "C% Pa'a forecasting method (an, 'i*ilih a'alah Do!le exsponential smoothing with trend 5D?ST( $*aila search the est ma-a -"m*ute+ a-an men7a+i nilai 'an J te+ai-% 2"nstanta 'an J a'alah -"nstanta *emulusan 'en,an +entan, nilai 0#1% 2"nstanta *emulusan a'alah *em""tan (an, a-an meme+i-an *e+e'aan anta+a 'ata a-tual masa lalu 'en,an 'ata
*e+amalan masa lalu% Selanutn(a 'i-li- "- hin,,a 'ata hasil *e+amalan mun7ul% % 9ntu- melihat ,ama+ hasil *e+amalan 'i-li- EShow $orecating in -raph% Data *enualan *+"'u- 3 (an, me+u*a-an 'ata musiman 'i+amal-an 'en,an met"'e Holt . &inter Additive Algorthm( Pe+tama 'ata 'a+i spread sheet 'item*el -emu'ian 'item*el-an -e AinBS> se*e+ti *a'a *e+amalan seelumn(a% Pe+amalan 'ila-u-an 'en,an men,-li- analyze *a'a menu a+ lalu *ilih perform forecasting ma-a a-an mun7ul 'ial", "C% Pa'a forecasting method (an, 'i*ilih a'alah Holt . &inter Additive Algorthm ( Da+i -eti,a 'ata (an, 'i,una-an masin, masin, memili-i *"la (an, e+e'a sehin,,a met"'e (an, 'i,una-an 'alam analisisn(a *un e+e'a e'a% P"la 'ata untu- *+"'u- 1 ) 'an 3 e+tu+ut tu+ut te+,"l"n, 'ata -"nstan 'ata t+en' 'an 'ata musiman% 9ntu- *+"'u- 1 (an, enis 'atan(a -"nstan met"'e (an, 'i,una-an a'alah met"'e simple average weighted moving average exponential smoothing 'an adaptive exponential smoothing % 9ntu- *+"'u- ) (an, me+u*a-an 'ata trend met"'e (an, 'a*at 'i,una-an a'alah met"'e moving average with linear trend exponential smoothing with linear trend 'an linear regression% 9ntu- *+"'u- 3 (an, musiman han(a 'a*at 'i,una-an met"'e winter % Dalam *+a-ti-um ini met"'e (an, 'i,una-an untu- *+"'u- 1 han(alah met"'e simple average sementa+a untu- *+"'u- ) met"'e (an, 'ite+a*-an a'alah met"'e do!le exponential smoothing with linear trend % 9ntu- *+"'u- 3 met"'e (an, 'i,una-an a'alah met"'e Holt%&inters additive Algoritm% 2eti-a hasil *e+amalan telah 'i*e+"leh *a'a in'"s a-an mu7ul tael hasil *e+amalan (an, te+'i+i 'a+i e+a,ai -"l"m% 2"l"m month menunu--an ulan atau *e+i"'e 'ata% 2"l"m act!al data a'alah -"l"m (an, e+isi 'ata a-tual (an, 'i+amal-an% $orecast y menunu--an hasil *e+amalan (an, 'ila-u-an 'en,an met"'e *e+amalan (an, 'i*ilih% $orecast eror e+asal 'a+i selisih nilai *e+amalan 'en,an nilai a-tual%
C!mm!lative $orecast error a'alah umlah
-eselu+uhan forecast error (an, meme+i-an ,ama+an umlah -eleihan atau -e-u+an,an i-a men,,una-an met"'e *e+amalan te+seut% Nilai !F? ti'a- 'a*at meme+i-an ,ama+an met"'e *e+amalan (an, te+ai- -a+ena setia* -esalahan (an, te+a'i 'a*at salin, menia'a-an nilai *"sitif 'an ne,atif%
M$D 5 Mean Asol!te Deviation a'alah +ataan nilai as"lut 'a+i setia* forecast error (an, 'ihasil-an suatu met"'e *e+amalan% Nilai M$D 'i,una-an untu- men,etahui see+a*a esa+ +ata#+ata -esalahan (an, a-an te+a'i a*aila men,,una-an met"'e te+seut% Nilai M$D meme+i-an ,ama+an (an, ai- 'alam melihat -esalahan *e+amalan (an, te+a'i -a+ena -esalahan (an, te+a'i 'imutla--an sehin,,a hasiln(a 'a*at 'i-etahui 'en,an elas -esalahan *e+amalan (an, te+a'i( 9ntu- masin,#masin, *"la 'ata 'i,una-an leih 'a+i satu met"'e *e+amalan (an, 'i,una-an a,a+ 'a*at 'i7a+i met"'e *e+amalan (an, *alin, ai- 'en,an men,etahui -esalahan atau error 5M$D (an, *alin, -e7il% @umus M$D a'alah sea,ai e+i-ut :
MS? 5 Mean S#!ared "rror me+u*a-an nilai +ata#+ata 'a+i -ua'+at nilai forecast error % Nilai MS? me+u*a-an ,ama+an nilai .a+ians (an, te+a'i 'a+i hasil *e+amalan te+seut% @umus MS? 'in(ata-an 'alam :
Nilai M$P? 5 Mean Asol!te Percentage "rror a'alah
+ata#+ata nilai
*+esentase 'a+i umlah asol!te forecast error % Nilai ini meme+i-an ,ama+an (an, se+u*a 'en,an nilai M$D teta*i 'alam entu- *+esentase te+ha'a* nilai a-tual% @umus M$P? 'in(ata-an 'alam :
Trac*ing signal a'alah suatu u-u+an a,aimana ai-n(a suatu +amalan mem*e+-i+a-an nilai#nilai a-tual% Suatu +amalan 'i*e+aha+ui setia* min,,u ulan atau t+iulan sehin,,a 'ata *e+mintaan (an, a+u 'ian'in,-an te+ha'a* nilai#nilai +amalan% Trac*ing signal 'ihitun, sea,ai !F? 'ia,i 'en,an mean asol!te deviation 5M$D%
Selain 'en,an men,,una-an software nilai nilai 'i atas 'a*at 'ihitun, se7a+a manual 'en,an men,,una-an +umus% @umus (an, 'i,una-an untu- men,hitun, nilai M$D a'alah nilai forecast error *a'a *e+i"'e te+tentu 'ia,i 'en,an umlah *e+i"'en(a% Misaln(a nilai M$D *a'a *e+i"'e -eti,a 5men,,una-an 'ata *+a-ti-um *e+amalan *+"'u- 1 a'alah 10% Nilai ini 'i*e+"leh 'a+i hasil *enamahan nilai e *a'a *e+i"'e -e ) seesa+ 0 'en,an nilai f"+e7ast e++"+ *a'a *e+i"'e -e 3 seesa+ )0 sehin,,a men,hasil-an nilai )0 -emu'ian 'ia,i 'en,an ) 5*e+i"'e (an, 'ianalisis (a-ni 'i-u+an,i 1% MS? 'ihitun, 'en,an 7a+a mema,i -ua'+at nilai e 'en,an umlah *e+i"'en(a% Misaln(a nilai MS? *a'a *e+i"'e -e 4 a'alah 1<8<036% Nilai ini 'i*e+"leh 'a+i hasil *enamahan nilai -ua'+at 'a+i forecast error *e+i"'e ) *e+i"'e 3 'an *e+i"'e 4 50 K 400 K 136%1118 lalu 'ia,i 'en,an 3 5-a+ena te+'a*at ti,a *e+i"'e seelum *e+i"'e -eem*at % @SF? 5 !nning S!m of $orecast "rror 'ihitun, 'en,an menumlah-an nilai e *a'a *e+i"'e seelumn(a 'en,an *e+i"'e sesu'ahn(a% Misaln(a nilai @SF? *e+i"'e -e 3 a'alah 83334 (an, 'i'a*at 'a+i hasil *enumlahan nilai forecast error *e+i"'e 1) se+ta 3 50 K )0 K5#11666<% M$P? 5Mean $s"lute Pe+7enta,e ?++"+ 'ihitun, 'en,an 7a+a menumlah-an nilai mutla- nilai e *e+i"'e te+tentu 'ia,i 'en,an 'ata a-tual *a'a *e+i"'e te+seut -emu'ian 'i-ali 5100/ n#1 'imana 5n me+u*a-an *e+i"'e (an, 'iui% Misaln(a *a'a *e+i"'e -e 4 'i'a*at nilai M$P? seesa+ 40;643% Nilai ini 'i'a*at 'a+i hasil *enumlahan nilai *ema,ian anta+a e 'en,an nilai 'ata a-tual *a'a *e+i"'e 1 ) 'an 3 50 K 5)0:)<0 K 511666
untu- 'ata *e+amalan% >e+'asa+-an hasil analisis *a'a 'ata *+"'u-si 1 selu+uhn(a masih a'a 'alam atas -"nt+"l% Pa'a 'ata *+"'u-si ) te+'a*at ee+a*a 'ata (an, -elua+ 'a+i atas -"nt+"l% Pa'a 'ata *+"'u-si 3 han(a satu (an, -elua+ 'a+i atas -"nt+"l% Data (an, -elua+ 'a+i atas -"nt+"l menan'a-an a'an(a -eti'a-sesuaian 'en,an met"'e *e+amalan (an, 'i,una-an% >e+'asa+-an *eta -"nt+"l te+seut ma-a met"'e (an, *alin, 7"7"- a'a *a'a 'ata *+"'u-si 1 (aitu moving average( >ee+a*a istilah -"efisien (an, a'a 'alam *e+amalan ini anta+a lain : 1% $l*ha a'alah nilai -"efisien untu- memulus-an 5 smoothing 'ata% 2"efisien ini men,,ama+-an 'ata -"nstan% 2eti-a nilai al*ha men'e-ati 1 a+tin(a hasil *e+amalan men'e-ati 'ata te+a+u% )% >etta a'alah -"efisien ,a+is t+en'% 2"efisien ini men,,ama+-an 'ata t+en'% $*aila nilai etta G 0 ma-a 'ata ti'a- 'i*en,a+uhi t+en'% 3% =amma a'alah -"efisien *a'a m"'el *e+amalan 'ata musiman% 2eti-a nila ,amma G 1 ma-a 'ata 'i*en,a+uhi "leh musim 5te+masu- 'ata musim% 4% @ atau -"efisien 'ete+minasi a'alah -"efisien (an, 'i,una-an untu- menunu--an a*a-ah hasil analisis te+seut a-u+at atau ti'a-% Nilai @ ) te+leta- anta+a 0 1% Sema-in tin,,i nilai @ n(a ma-a hasil analisis 'a*at 'i-ata-an a-u+at% >e,itu *ula seali-n(a%
BAB V KESIMPULAN
>e+'asa+-an *+a-ti-um (an, telah 'ila-u-an 'a*at 'isim*ul-an sea,ai e+i-ut:
1% Pe+amalan 5 forecasting a'alah seni 'an ilmu untu- mem*e+-i+a-an -ea'ian 'imasa 'e*an% &al ini 'a*at 'ila-u-an 'en,an meliat-an *en,amilan 'ata masa lalu 'an menem*at-ann(a -e masa (an, a-an 'atan, 'en,an suatu entu- m"'el matematis% Pe+amalan isa 'ila-u-an 'en,an antuan s"fta+e -"m*ute+ salah satun(a AinBS>% )% Met"'e *e+amalan 'isesuai-an 'en,an *"la enis 'ata% Pa'a *+a-ti-um ini 'ata *"la -"nstan sesuai 'i+amal-an 'en,an met"'e moving average 'ata t+en' 'i+amal-an 'en,an met"'e Do!le exsponential smoothing with trend 5D?ST 'an 'ata *"la musiman 'i+amal-an 'en,an met"'e Holt . &inter Additive Algorthm(
DAFTAR PUSTAKA
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