!"#$%& ()*+,-, !.# /&0&*& 1#$$& 234&+"&*
,-./012 •
(5+"&0)6)&+
•
74)*&+ "&3&* 4585+")")4&+ 4585+")")4&+
•
95$,"5 (*,%543# (*,%543# (5+")")4
•
:53#-8)6&+
;5<#+#3# !+&6#3#3 :585+")")4&+
•
=).)&+ !+&6#3#3
•
!"#$%&'('%#
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
$*+,-,., / 01213-
:,+358 ;&3&*
;5-,>*&<#
1$*)4$)*&6
(5*)@&0&+ (,8)6&3#
!+&6#3#3 $5+$&+> 4&*&4$5*#3$#4 8,8)6&3# "&+ 5?,6)3#+%& @5*"&3&*4&+ A&4$) "&+ *)&+> %&+> "#45+&6 "5+>&+ #3$#6&0 "5-,>*&<# BC885+05#-D EFGHI
9J=C;J (MCNJ:12 (JL;7;7: (5+>)-8)6&+ ;&$&
:J129(7K!L
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
;5<#+#3# P =).)&+
>8-.*7 $3.3;
-5*)8&4&+ >*7*-9191=3- 565-5+ 85+$#+> "&6&85-@&+>)+&+ 3)&$) A#6&%&0D 85+>5$&0)&+ &4&+ 85*45-@&+>&+ 85+")")4 -5*)8&4&+ @&>#&+ 8,4,4 "&6&8*,353 85*5+V&+&&+ BO&*8&+#D EFGHI
9J=C;J (MCNJ:12 (JL;7;7:
:J129(7K!L
(5+>)-8)6&+ ;&$&
!+&6#3#3 ;5-,>*&<# "#-)6 "5+>&+ 4,+358 "&3&*D "&3&*D 35@&> @5*#4)$ BO&+> P Q,<5D RHHSIT 214536 787153., 35V&*& &V$)&6 EU 95+>>&-@&*4&+ 95+>>&-@&*4&+ 214536 RU 95+5+$)4&+ 9,.:;,<1., 7*-9191= "# &*5& 3$)"# BV,+$,0T 458&"&$&+I 7*-9191=T .5+#3 456&-#+D )3#&D WU 95-@)&$ 7;8+,5 =8478.,., 7*-9191=T 3)4)D "66 XU 95+>0#$)+> 7;*.*-:3.* 7*;1<363- "&*# 4&*&4$5*#3$#4 8,8)6&3# $5*8#6#0
•
•
•
!"#$%&'('%#
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
;5<#+#3# P =).)&+
:,+358 ;&3&*
15+3)3 (5+")")4
1)*?5% B1&-856I
;#6&4)4&+ EH $&0)+ 354&6#U (5+>)-8)6&+ "&$& 35V&*& -5+%56)*)0 (&"& 45356)*)0&+ 8,8)6&3#Z
;#6&4)4&+ "&6&85*#,"5 $5*$5+$)Z
•
•
956&4)4&+ >5+5*&6#3&3# 8&"& 8,8)63# @5*"&3&*4&+ 45$5*A&4#6&+ 3&-856U
9J=C;J (MCNJ:12 (JL;7;7:
:J129(7K!L
!*-?147153- $3:3
M5>#3$*&3# !"#$%& ()*)+ •
M5>#3$*&3# [ 85+V&$&$&+ %&+> "#6&4)4&+ 85+")")4
Y !"#$%$ '"#(%(%) Y *+),-$"#$%$ 2"314+,1# (1# 2"510+1# 2"510+1# Y ."/+$0,1$+ 2"314+,1# )"6"#(%(%)1# 1# Y ."/+$0,1$+ )"6"#(%(%)
Y ."/+$0,1$+ *+/,1$+ Y !",0+7+)10 )"510+1# Y 8$9:
+6-741 *4847 '29213-3-641 •
(,8)6&3# 85+")")4
•
;#3$*#@)3# 85+")")4
•
(*,<#6 4,-8,3#3# 4,-8,3#3# 85+")")4
•
(*535+$&35 (*535+$&35 85*)@&0&+ 85+")")4
(JL;!Q7K7!L
!87153., !*-9191=
'>'B%# $%C%B >"!"#$'$'>%#
;#3$*#@)3# 85+")")4
!+&6#3#3 ;5-,>*&<# "#-)6 "5+>&+ 4,+358 "&3&*D 35@&> @5*#4)$ BO&+> P Q,<5D RHHSIT EU
95+>>&-@& 95+>>& -@&*4 *4&+ &+ 214536 787153., 35V&*& &V$)&6
9J=C;J (MCNJ:12 (JL;7;7:
(*,<#6 :,-8,3#3#
:J129(7K!L
(*535+$&35 (5*)@&0&+
!;8@,-.,
(13.
A14536 !*-9191=,
:&6#-&+$&+ 7$&*&
S\DX]SUXS
]FEDH\GUHH
:&6#-&+$&+ =#-)*
ERSDWX]UFR
WD\S\DXXFUHH
:&6#-&+$&+ 156&$&+
WSD\WHURH
XDEEFDSFXUHH
:&6#-&+$&+ =5+>&0
E\WD\]XUWH
RD]H\DRSXUHH
:&6#-&+$&+ ^&*&$
EX]DGHSUHH
XDFWRDXFFUHH
()6&) :&6#-&+$&+
\XHDSE\UGF
EEDGHGDWFFUSF
(JL;!Q7K7!L
'>'B%# $%C%B >"!"#$'$'>%#
(,8)6&3# (5+")")4
$,.:;,<1., 7*-9191=
RU 95+5+$)4&+ 9,.:;,<1., 7*-9191= A#6&%&0 3$)"#T •
•
95+)+.)44&+ 85*35@&*&+ &4$#?#$&3 54,+,-#D 3&*&+& 8*&3&*&+&D 8*&3&*&+&D "&+ 8)3&$ 85*>5*&4&+Z 95-@5*#4&+ 95-@5*#4&+ 3)")$ 8&+"&+> "&6&- -5*5+V&+&4&+ 85-@&+>)+&+U
9J=C;J (MCNJ:12 (JL;7;7:
(*,<#6 :,-8,3#3#
:J129(7K!L
(*535+$&35 (5*)@&0&+
(JL;!Q7K7!L
(,8)6&3# (5+")")4
'>'B%# $%C%B >"!"#$'$'>%#
;#3$*#@)3# 85+")")4
9J=C;J (MCNJ:12 (JL;7;7:
!;8+,5 >8478.,.,
:J129(7K!L
(*535+$&35 (5*)@&0&+
WU 95-@)&$ 7;8+,5 =8478.,., 7*-9191=T .5+#3 456&-#+D )3#&D 3)4)D "66 ^#,6,>#3T )-)*D )-)*D .5+#3 456&-#+ 1,3#&6Y@)"&%&T 85+"#"#4&+D 3$&$)3 85*4&A#+&+D 5$+#3#$&3D &>&-& "66 J4,+,-#T 85+"&8&$&+D 6&8&+>&+ 45*.&D .5+#3 8545*.&&+ "66 _5,>*&<#3T "53&Y4,$&D "&5*&0 &"-#+#3$*&3# "66 •
• • •
(JL;!Q7K7!L
(,8)6&3# (5+")")4
'>'B%# $%C%B >"!"#$'$'>%#
9J=C;J (MCNJ:12 (JL;7;7:
;#3$*#@)3# 85+")")4
(*,<#6 :,-8,3#3#
!*;:34<363- 787153., •
•
•
^#*$03 B;I (5,865 -,?#+> #+$, $05 $&*>5$ *5>#,+ B#+Y-#>*&+$3Z 29I
!*-1;1-3- 787153., •
•
;5&$03 B8I
!;*.*-:3.* !*;1<363-
XU 95+>0#$)+> 7;*.*-:3.* 7*;1<363- "&*# 4&*&4$5*#3$#4 8,8)6&3# $5*8#6#0
=5*"&8&$ ")& 85-#V) %&+> @5*85+>&*)0 $5*0&"&8 85*)@&0&+ 8,8)6&3# "&*# A&4$) 45 A&4$)
•
:J129(7K!L
•
•
B;<8I ` +&$)*&66% #+V*5&35 B;a8I `+&$)*&66% "5V*5&35U
!*-,-?=3:3- 3:31 7*-1;1-3- 787153., .*K3;3 3534,
(5,865 65&?#+> 65&?#+> $05 *5>#,+ B,)$Y B,)$Y -#>*&+$3Z C9I
!*;.3433- '414 !*;1<363!87153.,
Q&6 $5*35@)$ -5+%5@&@4&+ .5+#3 456&-#+ 456&-#+ "& )3#& -5*)8&4&+ 0&6 %&+> 85+$#+>
:2.;32 )7;<2680 )213-3-6 •
95$,"5 !>>*5>&$
•
95$,"5 ;#3&>>*5>&$
(JL;!Q7K7!L
!*-9361513-
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(5*$#-@&+>&+
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
=*5+" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
[email protected]$#?5 (*,.5V$#,+
:J129(7K!L
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
95+5*&84&+ -5$,"5 4)&+$#$&$#< )+$)4 -5+"&8&$4&+ 0&3#6 %&+> "#8*,%543#4&+U
=5*"&8&$ ")& $#8,6,># "&6&- &+&6#3#3 4585+")")4&+ B!*-3$*,+>D EFG\IU
^5@5*&8& -5$,"5 8*,%543# &"& %&+> 0&+%& @5*>&+$)+> 8&"& $*5+ 0#3$,*#3 B-#3&6+%&D -,"56 543$*&8,6&3# $*5+ID "&+ &"& 8)6& %&+> -5-85*0#$)+>4&+ @5*@&> 45$5*4$&+ 3$&$#3$#4 8,8)6&3# "5+>&+ ?&*#&@56 +,+Y
1)@.5V$#?5 (*,.5V$#,+
digambarkan sebagai “tebakan” , peneliti -5+.&)04&+ "#*# "&*# 85+"54&$&+ 3#3$5-&$#3 3#3$5-&$#3 "&+ -5$,",6,>#3 %&+> 45$&$U 1&+>&$ $5*>&+$)+> 8&"& 85*&3&&+ "&+ #+$)#3# 350#+>>& 0&+%& "&8&$ -5+V5*-#+4&+ 453&+ 8&"& 45V5+"5*)+>&+ 45V5+"5*)+>&+ 8,8)6&3# -&3& "58&+
=&-@&0&+
(JL;!Q7K7!L
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(5*$#-@&+>&+
!*-9361513-
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
=*5+" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
:J129(7K!L
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
(,8)6&$#,+ (*,.5V$#,+ 95$0,"3
=*5+" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"3 • •
• • •
K#+5&* _5,-5$*#V (&*&@,6#V K,>#3$#V 10&*5 ,< _*,A$0
c,0,*$YV,-8,+5+$ 95$0,"3
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"3
95$,"5 &>*5>&$ 95$,"5 "#3&>*5>&$
=&-@&0&+
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(JL;!Q7K7!L
!*-9361513-
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
0;*-9 "M:;37853:,8- 4*:689.
•
•
•
•
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
95+>&-&$# $*5+ 0#3$,*#3 0#3$,*#3 "&+ -5-8*,%543#4&+ 45 -&3& "58&+U 15*#+> "#>)+&4&+ "#>)+&4&+ )+$)4 "&5*&0 45V#6 45V#6 "# -&+& 3$&$#3$#4 8,8)6&3# "#3&>*5>&$ $#"&4 $5*35"#& B"&$&+%&I !6&$ %&+> 4)&$ )+$)4 -5-8*,%543#4&+ -5-8*,%543#4&+ 8,8)6&3# 4&*5+& &+&6#3#3 @5*>&+$)+> @5*>&+$)+> 8&"& 3&$) 35*# "&$& %&+> 3&+>&$ $5*&>*5>&3# JbT 4#$& "&8&$ -5+>543$*&8,6&3# -5+>543$*&8,6&3# $*5+ 8,8)6&3# %&+> "#&-&$# 356&-& ")& 8)6)0 $&0)+ $5*&40#* )+$)4 c#+V#++&$# "&6&- A&4$) "54&$
:J129(7K!L
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
N868;:DN8478-*-: H*:689
•
•
7-)-+%& -5+>>)+&4&+ 46&3#<#4&3# )3#& %&+> 3853#<#4 "&+ -5+%53)&+ -5+%53)&+ "5+>&+ W <&4$,* 85*$)-@)0&+ 8,8)6&3#D 4,?;3:,8-U %$) <,;:6.O 9*3:6.O 3-9 4,?;3:,8-U 95$,"5+%& 8&6#+> @&+%&4 @&+%&4 "#>)+&4&+D 4&*5+& "#&+>>&8 3)"&0 V)4)8 "5$ "&6&- -5-85*$#-@&+>4&+ <&4$,* 85*)@&0&+ 8,8)6&3#
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
=&-@&0&+
C:;1K:1;35 H*:689.
•
95+.56&34&+ 85*$)-@)0&+ 8,8)6&3# B?&*#&@56 "585+"5+I -56&6)# @5*@&> ?&*#&@56 +,+Y"5-,>*&<# B#+"585+"5+I 3585*$# 8545*.&&+D $#+>4&$ )8&0D "&+ <&3#6#$&3 6,4&6 35*$& 85+>>)+&&+ 6&0&+ "&+ -,"56 $*&+38,*$&3#U
(JL;!Q7K7!L
!*-9361513-
•
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(5*$#-@&+>&+
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
=*5+" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
:J129(7K!L
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
d&"# @&>-&+& !+"& @#3& @#3& %&4#+ )+$)4 -5-#6#0 -5$,"5 8*,%543# 8*,%543# %&+> 8&6#+> $58&$e
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
C1<2*K:,@* ,47;*..,8-. T 0,4* K8-.:;3,-: T 0*K6-,K35 .=,55 5*@*5 $3:3 3@3,53<,5,:P $*:3,5 8+ 3-35P.,. !1;78.* 8+ :6* 787153:,8-
=5+$)+%&D -5-&0&-# 4&*&4$5*#3$#4 )+#4D &3)-3#D "&+ 85*3%&*&$&+ -5*)8&4&+ 6&+>4&0 85+$#+> )+$)4 -5-@)&$ 8#6#0&+D $5$&8# &"& @&+%&4 +3=:8; P3-? 63;1. 9,7*;:,4<3-?=3-
7;82*K:,8 C:;*-?:6. 3-9 Q*3=-*..*.
=&-@&0&+
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(JL;!Q7K7!L
(5+"&0)6)&+
!*;:,4<3-?3-
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
=*5+" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
:J129(7K!L
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
^&$&3&+ O&4$) • ^5*&8& 6&-& A&4$) )+$)4 -5+>)-8)64&+ "&$&D -56&4)4&+ &+&6#3#3D "&+ -5+)6#3 6&8,*&+ &4&+ -5-85+>&*)0# 458)$)3&+ 4#$& "&6&- -5-#6#0 -5$,"5
:53&+[(5+"&8&$$ 15V&*& 1)@.54$#< :53&+[(5+"&8& =#+>4&$ :5-&-8)&+ =54+#3 •C*&+> &4&+ V5+"5*)+> -5-#6#0 -5$,"5 %&+> "#*&3& +%&-&+ )+$)4 "#>)+&4&+U 85+>5$&0)&+ %&+> V)4)8 &4&+ 3)&$) -5$,"5 -5+.&"# &6&3&+ )+$)4 -5-#6#0 85+"54&&+ %&+> 65@#0 -)"&0 "&*#8&"& %&+> 3)6#$U •:)*&+>+%& 85+>5$&0)&+
:5$5*35"#&&+ :5$5*35 "#&&+ ;&$& •d#4& "&$& %&+> "#-#6#4# 0&+%& 8,8)6&3# 95$,"5 &>*5>&$ •d#4& "&$& 65@#0 "5$D -56#@&$4&+ 4,-8,+5+ 8,8)6&3# 85+")")4 95$,"& c,0,*$ [ "#3&>*5>&$
:5"5$&+ !+&6#3#3 •=#+>4&$ 45"5$&+ "&6&- &+&6#3#3 -5-+4&+ 85*&+&+ 85+$#+> 45$#4& -5-#6#0 $54+#4 54$*&8,6&3# $*5+ %&+> 65@#0 3#-865 &$&)4&0 -,"56 4,-8,+5+ 4,0,*$ %&+> V5+"5*)+> 65@#0 #+$5+3#< "&+ "5$U
=).)&+ •=).)&+T #+>#+ -5-8*,%543# 85+")")4 35V&*& 4)&+$#$&$#< 3&.& T 95$,"5 &>*5>&$ 85+")")4+%& -5$,"& "#3&>*5>&$ •d#4& 356+ -58*,%543# #+>#+ $&0) .)>& @&>-&+& &6&3&+ 85*)@&0&+ 85+")")4+%&
:54)&$&+ "&+ 4565-&0&+ -5$,"& •15$#&8 -5$,"5 -5-#6#4# 454)&$&+ B-#3&6+%&T 3%&*&$ "&$& *5+"&0D 350#+>>& 65@#0 -5-)"&04&+ &+&6#3#3I "&+ 8&"& %&+> 3&-& -5-#6#4# 4565-&0&+ BV,+$,0T 4)*&+> "5$I
=&-@&0&+
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(JL;!Q7K7!L
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
•
!"#$%&%$' )*+,"%-. /&0#$1 )"'2&2&% 2. 0$-$ 2")$' 2"'3$' $-&0-.4 5*"' 60$-$ #$#&7 8"*#$'/&5 )$2$ 5$1&'9 5$1&' 8"*.%&5',$
•
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
===> 6=@"*$3" =''&$# !(")*#+, >1$'3"-7 +*$'3 )"* 5$1&' ==:> 6=@"*$3" =''&$# -,./,0+ >1$'3"-7 )"*-"' 6A7
-.)1,2"% 3,04#4#2&
:5;' < :' ; '6===>7 :5;' < :5 9
56/6$ $,+)4,&
K#+5&*
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
0;*-9 "M:;37853:,8- H*:689
!"#$"%&
:J129(7K!L
6?;==:>7'
===> < 6:t+n – : :t7B' ==:> < 6:t+nB:t7 9 ?
?B'
C*"'2 DE5*$)+#$5.+' !"51+2
_5,-5$*#V
(&*&@,6#V
K,>#3$#V
10&*5 ,< _*,A$0
10#<$Y10&*5
=&-@&0&+
(JL;!Q7K7!L
(5+"&0)6)&+
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(5*$#-@&+>&+
(,-*3;
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
:J129(7K!L
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
0;*-9 "M:;37853:,8- H*:689
R*84*:;,K
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
=&-@&0&+
!3;3<85,K
(8?,.:,K
=#+>4&$ 85*$)-@)0&+ 85+")")4 8&"& $#&8 $&0)++%& $#"&4 @5*3#<&$ 6#+5&*U (5*)@&0&+ %&+> $5*.&"# 8&"& -,"56 #+# $#"&4 4,+3$&+ "&8&$ @5*$&-@&0 &$&) @5*4)*&+>U
(,6& 85*$)-@)0&+ 8&"& -,"56 #+# &"&6&0 "5+>&+ 85*$)-@)0&+ %&+> 6&-@&$D 45-)"#&+ -5+#+>4&$ 8&"& 3&$) 85*#,"5D "&+ $5*&40#* $5*.&"# 85+)*)+&+U Q&6 #+# .)>& "#6&4)4&+ "5+>&+ -5+5+$)4&+ @&$&3 &$&3 "&+ @&A&0 "&*# 8,6& "&$&U
!3)-3#
(5*$)-@)0&+ 8,8)6&3# -5+>#4)$# 8,6& 6#+#5* 85*$)-@)0&+ 85+")")4 $#&8 $&0)++%& @5*.)-6&0 3&-&U
(5*$)-@)0&+ 85+")")4 "5+>&+ *&$5 &$&) $#+>4&$ 85*35+$&35 %&+> 4,+3$&+ $#&8 $&0)+ .)-6&0 85+")")4 -5+#+>4&$ B85*6&0&+I 8&"& $&0)+Y$&0)+ 85*$&-&
:)*?&
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(JL;!Q7K7!L
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
0;*-9 "M:;37853:,8- H*:689
:J129(7K!L
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
=&-@&0&+
!"# %&'()* +,-./)0&,' 1,2(/ :' < α
; β 7 C'
-0< "-5.0$5"2 )+)$5.+' F+* $ 3.@"' ,"$*
' α ` .'5"*G")5 +F 51" #.'"$* *"3*"--.+' 0+2"# β ` -#+)" G+"FF.G."'5 +F 51" #.'"$*
*"3*"--.+' 0+2"# 3*+H51 $''&$# $8-+#&5" )+)$5.+' 3*+H51 80 < 51" .'2"E '&08"* F+* ,"$* '
d#4& "#)-8&-&4&+ @&0A& .)-6&0 &"&6&0 &D $#+>4&$ 8,8)6&3# &"&6&0 (ED (RD (W, …… (+ "&+ $&0)+ 1,2,3 ….. &"&6&0 +D -&4&T (E ` (, f & (R ` (E f & ` B(, f &I f & ` ( , f R& (W ` (R f & ` B(, f R&I f & ` (, f W& (+ ` (+YE f & ` (, f B+YEI& f & ` ( , f +& 150#+>>& T
!- S !8 E -3 :5$5*&+>&+ T (+ ` 8,8)6&3# $&0)+ + (, ` 8,8)6&3# $&0)+ "&3&* + ` 85*#,"5 8*,%543# & ` @53&*+%& 85*$)-@)0&+
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(JL;!Q7K7!L
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
0;*-9 "M:;37853:,8- H*:689
:J129(7K!L
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
=&-@&0&+
3"# 4(,5(0*&6 +,-./)0&,' 1,2(/ I"'3$' 0"'33&'$%$' "#$%&' #(&) 0$%$ /&0#$1 )"'2&2&% 0"'.'3%$5 6)"*#$1$'7 )$2$ 5$1&'95$1&' )"*5$0$ '$0&' %"0&2.$' 0"'.'3%$5 2"'3$' -$'3$5 G")$5 )$2$ 5$1&'95$1&' 8"*.%&5',$J 8"*.%&5',$J
*<
:';? 9 :' :'
* < G+'-5$'5 3*+H51 *$5" :' < )+)$5.+' .' ,"$* ' :';? < )+)$5.+' .' ,"$* ';?
95$,"5 #+# 65@#0 -5+>&*&0 458&"& 85*0#$)+>&+ +#6 85*$)-@)0&+ 85+")")4 -56&6)# 4*:89* ;3:3D;3:3 d&"# "&8&$ "#3#-8)64&+ @&0A&
!- S !8 FTE;J:5$5*&+>&+ T (+ ` 8,8)6&3# $&0)+ + (, ` 8,8)6&3# $&0)+ "&3&* + ` 85*#,"5 8*,%543# * ` *&3#, 85*$)-@)0&+
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(JL;!Q7K7!L
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
0;*-9 "M:;37853:,8- H*:689
7"# +)*)8,/&6 +,-./)0&,' 1,2(/ , < &
; @E 7
c&35
:J129(7K!L
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
2
-0< )+)$5.+' .' 51" ,"$* ' 62")"'2"'5 @$*.$8#"7 α ` .'5"*G")5 βT "&+ βU` G+"FF.G."'5 +F 51" )$*$8+#.G G&*@" 80 < .'2"E '&08"* F+* ,"$* '
222
βE
βR
8,3#$#<
8,3#$#<
(5*$&-@&0&+ %&+> 35-&4#+ -5+#+>4&$ (5+")")4 @5*$&-@&0 :)*?& V54)+> 45 &$&3 BV,+V&?5 )8A&*"I
+5>&$#<
(5*$&-@&0&+ %&+> 35-&4#+ @5*4)*&+> (5+")")4 @5*4)*&+> :)*?& V54)+> 45 @&A&0 BV,+V&?5 ",A+A&*"I
8,3#$#<
(5*$&-@&0&+ %&+> 35-&4#+ @5*4)*&+> (5+")")4 @5*$&-@&0 :)*?& V54)+> 45 &$&3 BV,+V&?5 )8A&*"I
8,3#$#<
+5>&$#<
β1 %+"F.-."' #.'"$* 6C7 ,$'3 0"'&'/&%%$'
)"*5&08&1$' %+'-5$' β2 %+"F.-."' '+'9#.'"$* 6CM7 ,$'3 0"',"8$8%$'
2g
=&-@&0&+
1#>+ ,< +,+Y K#+5&* 16,85 (&*&-5$5*
; βE 7 C' ; βR 7 9CM'7 22
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
1#>+ ,< K#+5&* 16,85 (&*&-5$5*
K ; 8L J KM
I$)$5 2.5.-%$' %" 2$#$0 F+*0$ %")"'2&2&%$' -884
:' < α
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
+5>&$#<
+5>&$#<
J<<5V$3 ,+ (,8)6&$#,+ _*,A$0
(5*$&-@&0&+ %&+> 35-&4#+ -5+#+>4&$ (5+")")4 @5*4)*&+>
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(JL;!Q7K7!L
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
0;*-9 "M:;37853:,8- H*:689
:J129(7K!L
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
=&-@&0&+
9"# %,:&;0&6 +,-./)0&,' 1,2(/ N<
>
?;$J" 98K
K < .'2")"'2"'5 @$*.$8#" N < 2")"'2"'5 @$*.$8#" $ R 8 < )$*$0"5"*G < 3*+H51 G".#.'3 G+'-5$'5 +* &))"*
I.-"2"*1$'$%$' %" 2$#$0 F+*0$ ,$'3 5"#$1 %.5$ %"'$#J :' < )+)$5.+' .' ,"$* ' C' < .'2"E '&08"* F+* ,"$* ' α ` )$*$0"5"* β < G+'-5$'5 )+)$5.+' 3*+H51 F$G5+* ?BG < *"G.)*+G$# +F 51" )*"-"5 &))"* $-,0)5+5.G )+)$5.+'
? < ? ; $8K N G
=+ ? < ? ; αβ :' G
O&*@$ #+3.-5.G 8"*#$%& 8$.% &'5&% -%"'$*.+ 8$5$- $5$- 0$&)&' 8$5$- 8$H$1J :"*8"2$$'', 5"*3$'5&'3 )$2$ '.#$. )$*$0"5"* βT PQ βaE G$-" 2"'3$' 8$5$- $5$βhE G$-" 2"'3$' 8$5$- 8$H$1
(5+"&0)6)&+
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(JL;!Q7K7!L
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
:J129(7K!L
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
034<363-
!"5+2" :*+,"%-. :"'2&2&%
C*"'2 DE5*$)+#$5.+ ' !"51+2-
S.'"$* >1$'3"
T"+0"5*.G >1$'3"
>+0)#"E DE5*$)+#$5.+ ' !"51+2
DE)+'"'5.$# >1$'3"
<)58)=)'>
S.'"$* 0+2"#
:+#,'+0.$# !+2"#
S+3.-5.G !+2"#
U$5.+ DE5*$)+#$5.+ ' !"51+2
=UV!= C.0" W"*."-
>+'-5$'5 W1$*"
W1.F5 W1$*"
!"5+2" I.-$33*"3$5
T*+H51 W1$*"
>+1+*59 >+0)+'"'5 !"51+2
W5*&G5&*$# !"51+2-
(JL;!Q7K7!L
(5+"&0)6)&+
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(5*$#-@&+>&+
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
:J129(7K!L
N868;: H89*5 H*:689
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
1%*23% 4252&*-62#72.%.* -5-85*$#-@&+>4&+ 4,-8,+5+Y4,-8,+5+ 4585+")")4&+ %&+> 3853#<#4 Bd5+#3 456&-#+D )3#&D "66I 35*$& -5+>0)@)+>4&++%& "5+>&+ "5+>&+ <&4$,*Y<&4$,* 85*$)-@)0&+ 85+")")4 3585*$# 456&0#*&+D 45-&$#&+D 45-&$#&+D "&+ -#>*&3#U95$,"5 4,-8,+5+ 4,-8,+5+ V,0,*$ #+# -5*)8&4&+ -5$,"5 %&+> 8&6#+> 35*#+> "#>)+&4&+ 4&*5+& 65@#0 "5$ "&6&- -56#0&$ 85*)@&0&+ 8&"& $#&8 4,-8,+5+ 4585+")")4&+U BO&+> P Q,<5 D RHHSI
7;8@,9*. 9*:3,5*9 9*48?;376,K ,-+8;43:,8- 8- Q6P 3-9 68Q :6* 787153:,8- K63-?*.V
NI&IB0W
4252&* "#"5<#+#3#4&+ 35@&> .13:1 =*58478= 787153., %&+> -5+>&6&-# 4,+"#3# %&+> 3&-& 356&-& 85*#,"5 A&4$) $5*$5+$) "&+ "##"5+$#<#4&3# 45-)"#&+ "# -&3& "58&+ @5*"&3&*4&+ 453&-&&+U :56,-8,4 #+# @5*"&3&*4&+ )3#&D .5+#3 456&-#+D 3)4)D "66U
=&-@&0&+
(JL;!Q7K7!L
(5+"&0)6)&+
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
(5*$#-@&+>&+
H"0I$" !BIL">CG !"#$'$'>
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
H*4<3?, 787153., =*93534 =*58478= 1.,3 93- 2*-,. =*534,-
•
•
0,-?=3: =*536,;3-O =*43:,3-O 93- 4,?;3., "#&86#4&3#4&+ 8&"& $#&8 V,0,*$U 7+$)4 $#&8 V,0,*$D &4&+ 4#$& 7;8P*=.,=3<3?3,43-3 7*-9191= 3=3- <*;1<36 .*5343 7*;,89* Q3=:1 P3-? 9,:*-:1=3-
:J129(7K!L
N868;: H89*5 H*:689
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
=&-@&0&+
;&6&- 35$#&8 V,0,*$ 4#$& "&8&$ -5-8*,%543#4&+ -5-8*,%543#4&+ <3?3,43-3 787153., 9373: <*;1<36 93534 ;*-:3-? Q3=:1 P3-? :*536 9,:*-:1=3EU RU
^&>-&+& ^&>-&+& A&+#$& A&+#$& )3#& )3#& RHYRX $&0)+ "&8&$ @5*)@&0 @5*)@&0 "&6&- \ $&0)+ 45"58&+e ^&>-&+& ^&>-&+& 8,8)6&3# 8,8)6&3# 8&"& 3)&$) &*5& "&8&$ @5*)@&0e @5*)@&0e
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
N868;: H89*5 H*:689
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
=&-@&0&+
H*:893 4252&*-42#72.%.*
:56&0#*&+
:5-&$#&+
9#>*&3#
(*,%543# .)-6&0 85+")")4 "#85+>&*)0# ,650 $# +>4&$ 456&0#*&+ G7",0+3+0H ,10"I 8&"& 85*5-8)&+ 456,-8,4 )3#& 8*,")4$#<[ 3)@)*
(*,%543# .)-6&0 85+")")4 @5*"&3&*4&+ 8&"& $#+>4&$ 45-&-8)&+ @5*$&0&+ 0#")8 B$%,J+J13 ,10"I &$&) .)-6&0 85+")")4 %&+> -&-8) @5*$&0&+ 0#")8 356&-& 85*#,"5 A&4$) $5*$5+$)U
(*,%543# .)-6&0 85+")")4 "#85+>&*)0# ,650 +5$ -#>*&3#D %$) 356#3#0 -#>*&3# %&+> -&3)4 "&+ $,$&6 -#>*&3# %&+> 456)&* !3)-3#T =#+>4&$ -#>*&3# +5$$, 85+")")4 &4#@&$ -#>*&3# 4,+3$&+ $#&8 $&0)++%&U
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
N868;: H89*5 H*:689
=&-@&0&+
>IH!I#"# HIB0%(G0L FHJ
•
•
;5+>&+ "#85+>&*)0# ,650 3)*?#?&6 *&$5 B#3* K ID 8,8)6&3# A&+#$& "&*# $&0)+ RHHH B#i K BCCC I 1)1# 5"#L1(+ B#!i K BCCM I (1# H1#/ 0+(1) 9",0141# $"3151 014%# BCCCNBCCM 1)1# 5"#L1(+ B#8i K BCCCNBCCM I (5*0#$)+>&+ 85*$&-& "#-)6 "5+>&+ j-5+>&6#4&+j 8,8)6&3# "# $&0)+ "&3&* "5+>&+ 3)*?#?&6 *&$5 8&"& $&0)+ $5*35@)$U
;<<= / X ;<<< 8 .; .!X 89: . 8 . 8
•
K O %$+1 1P13 61(1 $6"Q+7+Q $6"Q+7+Q 1/" Q-4-,0
•
# O L%5314 014%# 61(1 $6"Q+7+Q 1/" Q-4-,0 GM 014%#I
•
R O 014%# 6,-H")$+ 6,-H")$+ GBCCCNBCCMI GBCCCNBCCMI
(X
;<<<-;<<= /
X
;<<<
!X
;<<=
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
N868;: H89*5 H*:689
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
>IH!I#"# HGRB%CG 0I0%( 0I0%( •
•
•
(&"& "&3&*+%& 3&+>&$ 3)6#$ )+$)4 -5+5+$)4&+ &$&) -5-8*,%543#4&+ -5-8*,%543#4&+ 35V&*& $5*8#3&0 .)-6&0 85+")")4 %&+> @5*-#>*&3# 456)&* A#6&%&0 -&)8)+ 45"&6&- A#6&%&0U (5*-&3&6&0&+ )$&-& "&6&- -56&4)4&+ 8*,%543# 8*,%543# 35V&*& 35V&*& $5*8#3&0 &"&6&0 45$5*@&$&3&+ "&$&U 7+$)4 #$) "#6&4)4&+ 85+"54&$&+ 85+"54&$&+ #"0 5+/,10+-# "5+>&+ V&*& -5+>0#$)+> *53#") "&*# 0&3#6 8*,%543# 85+")")4D 45-&$#&+D 45-&$#&+D "&+ 456&0#*&+U
?@@=-;<<< / ! ;<<< - ! ?@@= - Y ?@@=-;<<< 9 $ ?@@=-;<<< .>1 89: . 89: . 8 . 8 . 8
•
•
2L [ C7=e
95+#+.&) <&4$,* 3,V#,5V,+,-#VD V5+"5*)+> #+$5*+&6 &$&) 5b$5*+&6
,)$Y-#>*&$#,+ "#$5+$)4&+ ,650 <&4$,* #+$5*+&6D 350#+>>& 8,8)6&3# %&+> "#>)+&4&+ &"&6&0 8,8)6&3# #+$5*+&6 2+Y-#>*&$#,+ "#$5+$)4&+ ,650 <&4$,* 543$5*+&6 $5*0&"&8 &*5& %&+> "#&+>>&8 -5+&*#4D 350#+>>& 8,8)6&3# %&+> "#>)+&4&+ @)4&+
=&-@&0&+
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
N868;: H89*5 H*:689
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
=&-@&0&+
>IH!I#"# >"(%&GB%# •
15@5*&8& @&+%&4 @&%# @&%# %&+> &4&+ "#6&0#*4&+e
95-8*,%543#4&+ 95-8*,%543#4&+ .)-6&0 @&%# 6&0#* 8&"& 35$#&8 A&+#$& "# *5+$&+> )-)* $5*$5+$) 95+>&6,4&3#4&+ 95+>&6,4&3#4&+ 35$#&8 456&0#*&+ B456&0#*&+ 6&4#Y 6&4#[85*5-8)&+I 95+>>)+&4&+ 3)*?#?&6 *&$53 )+$)4 -5+5+$)4&+ .)-6&0 6&4#Y 6&4#[85*5-8)&+ %&+> 6&0#* "&+ &4&+ 356&-&$ 3&-8 46&3#<#4&3# *5+$&+> )3#& $5*-)"& 8&"& $&0)+ 8*,%543#
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
N868;: H89*5 H*:689
1$*)V$)*&6 95$0,"
=&-@&0&+
K&.) $#+>4&$ 456&0#*&+ *&$&Y*&$&
(*,%543# 456&0#*&+ $,$&6 "&*# 35$#&8 *5+$&+> )3#& A&+#$& %&+> @5*856)&+> -56&0#*4&+
15b *&$#, 456&0#*&+ @&%# 35V&*& 0#3$,*#3 •
!$Y*#34 <5-&65 8,8)6&$#,+ 8,8)6&$#,+ &$ $05 5+" ,< $05 8*,.5V$#,+ #+$5*?&6 #+$5*?&6 ABX 8 ;<<= . ABX
(*,%543# 8,8)6&3# A&+#$& %&+> @5*856)&+> )+$)4 -56&0#*4&+ •
>IH!I#"# >"(%&GB%#
/ .X 8 ;<<< – C
^#*$03 @5$A55+ RHHH &+" &+" RHH\D &>5 V,0,*$ K ;<<<-;<<= / . ABX ABX 8 ;<<= 8 .)$& 8 ;<<= .0 8
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
;5-,>*&805*3 ;5-,>*&805*3 35*#+> 4&6# -5-85*$&+%&4&+ -5-85*$&+%&4&+ 353)&$) %&+> $#"&4 @#3& "#.&A&@ "5+>&+ -5$,"5 8*,%543# %&+> 0&+%& "#$5+$)4&+ ,650 <&4$,* "5-,>*&<#3U
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
C:;1K:1;35 H*:689
*+,&+#(- .$/)- 0"'3$.5%$' )"*&8$1$' /&0#$1 )"'2&2&%
2"'3$' )"*&8$1$' 2$*. -$5& - $5& $5$& #"8.1 @$*.$8"# .'2")"'2"' '+'92"0+3*$F.J
D%+'+0.
S.'3%&'3$'
S$'2 &-"
:"*0&%.0$'
;)& 4&$5>,*# )-)•
•
"K8-84,KD9*48?;376,K 489*5. ;#>)+&4&+ )+$)4 -5-8*,%543#4&+ -5-8*,%543#4&+ 8,8)6&3# "&+ &4$#?#$&3 54,+,-# 8&"& &*5& >5,>*&<#3 %&+> *56&$#< 6)&3 B3$&$5D V,)+$*%D +&$#,+I
• •
=&-@&0&+
';<3- .P.:*4. 489*5. i,4)3 8&"& &*5& %&+> *56&$#< 45V#6 3585*$# @6,4D
W.-5"0 C*$'-)+*5$-.
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
;&6&- @5@5*&8& 4&3)3 <5*$#6#$% "&+ -,*$&6#$% "&8&$ "#.&"#4&+ $,6&4 )4)* )$&-& "&6&- -56&4)4&+ 8*,%543# 85+")")4U ;#&+$&*&+%& ;#&+$&*&+%& &"&6&0 4&3)3 "#-&+& 456&0#*&+ "&+ 45-&$#&+ $5*35@)$ -5*)8&4&+ 4,+$*#@)$,* )$&-& "&6&- 85*$)-@)0&+ 8,8)6&3# B!06@)*>D EFFFIU
HGRB%0GI# (5*@5"&&+ "5+>&+ V,0,*$ V,-8,+5+$ -,"56 -#>*&3# -5-85*$#-@&+>4&+ <&4$,* 54,+,-# 54,+,-# B.,@ V0&+>5D )+5-86,%-5+$D &+" A&>53 A&>53 ,* #+V,-5I i&4$,* +,+ 54,+,-# BV6#-&$5D BV6#-&$5D V,&3$&6 6,V&$#,+D 6,V&$#,+D 6#<5 V%V65 V%V65 V0&+>53D 85*3,+&6 V0&*&V$5*#3$#V3D &+" 3,V#&6 +5$A,*43I
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
C:;1K:1;35 H*:689
=&-@&0&+
Q&-8#* 35-)& -,"56 -#>*&3# "5-,>*&<# 54,+,-# "#"&3&*4&+ 8&"& 8*5-#3 @&0A& ,*&+>Y,*&+> 8&"& "&3&*+%& 356&6) @5*)3&0& )+$)4 -5-85*,650 -&$5*# %&+> 65@#0 @ BM&?5+3$5#+D EGGFT RG]IU
•
•
!3$,+5 &+" 9VK&+&0&+D EFFXZ ;&g&+k, ;&g&+k, &+" 9,**#3,+D EFSGZ i)>)#$$ &+" ^*,A+D EFFHZ 9&335% 5$ &6D EFGS
(5*-&3&6&0&++%& T #+"585+"5+$ ?&*#&@653 $05-356?53 -)3$ @5 8*,.5V$5"U
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
C:;1K:1;35 H*:689
=5*"&8&$ W 85+"54&$&+ )-)- "&6&- -5*&+V&+> "&+ -5+>#-865-5+$&3#4&+ 5V,+,-#VY "5-,>*&80#V -,"563
JcCLC9J=M2c 9C;JK1
95+>>)+&4&+ -5$,"5 *5>*53# )+$)4 -5-8*,%543#4&+ -#>*&3# 35@&> <)+>3# 3$&$#3$#4 "&6&- 54,+,-# B;&6&- @&+%&4 4&3)3D -#>*&3# "#85+>&*)0# ,650 54,+,-#D $5$&8# 54,+,-# $#"&4 0&+%& "#85+>&*)0# ,650 &"&+%& -#>*&3#I
^!K!Lc2L_ 9C;JK1
95-@5"&4&+ 8*,%543# 8*,%543# -#>*&3# -5+.&"# 8*,%543# 3)886% $5+&>& 45*.& "&+ "5-&+" $5+&>& 45*.&
M!=2CY^!1J; 9C;JK1
95+)*)+4&+ 8*,%543# 8*,%543# 85+")")4 35V&*& 6&+>3)+> "&*# 8*,%543# $5+&>& 45*.&
=&-@&0&+
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
C:;1K:1;35 H*:689
=&-@&0&+
JcCLC9J=M2c 9C;JK1 •
•
•
H*-??1-3=3- 7*-9*=3:3- *K8-84*:;,KV 9#>*&3# 65@#0 "#$5+$)4&+ ,650 ?&*#&@56 54,+,-#U (&*&-5$5* "&6&- 85*3&-&&+ 54,+,-5$*#4& "#$5+$)4&+ "&*# "&$& 0#3$,*#3 "5+>&+ -5+>>)+&4&+ $54+#4 *5>*53#U 95-5*6)4&+ 3#3$5- 85*3&-&&+ @5*34&6& @5*34&6& @53&*D "&$& "&6&- .)-6&0 @53&*
•
M5V)*3#?5 -,"563 :,93= 9373: 4*;*+5*=.,=3.*K3;3 4*-P*51;16 3-:3;3 4,?;3., 93- *=8-84,D *=8-84,D +&-)+ $5$&8 $5*@)4$# @5*0&3#6 )+$)4 -5-8*,%543#4&+ -#>*&3# Bc6&*4 &+" Q)+$5*D EFFRZ _*55+A,," &+" Q)+$D EFFEZ 1&+ ;#5>, !33,V#&$#,+ ,< _,?5*+-5+$3D EFFFZ _*55+A,,"D EFS\Z =&@)V0#D EFG\IU
•
model “recursive”
156+ "#>)+&4&+ )+$)4 -56#0&$ 0)@)+>&+ "# "&6&3)&$) *5>#,+D @)+>&+ *5V)*3#?5 .)>& 9373: 9,,475*4*-:3.,=3- 93534 489*5 415:,;*?,8-35 Bc&-8@566D EFF]Z i,,$ &+" 9#6+5D EFGFD 2335*-&+D 5$ &6UD EFG\D M,>5*3 &+" O#66#&-3D EFG]IU
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
C:;1K:1;35 H*:689
=&-@&0&+
^!K!Lc2L_ 9C;JK1 :,+358 "&6&- @&6&+V#+> -,"56 8&"& "&3&*+%& 3&+>&$ 3&+>&$ 35"5*0&+&U (*#+3#8 d#4& 85+&A&*&+ 85+&A&*&+ $5+&>& $5+&>& 45*.& 45*.& -565@#0# 85*-#+$&&+ $5+&>& 45*.&D 8545*.& @5*-#>*&3# 456)&* "&*# "&5*&0 d#4& 85*-#+$&&+ $5+&>& 45*.& -565@#0# -565@#0# 8&3,4&+ 8&3,4&+ $5+&>& 45*.&D 8545*.& @5*-#>*&3# 45 "&5*&0 $5*35@)$U
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
>*5*<,63-Z 65@#0 -)*&0 )+$)4 "#$5*&84&+ "&+ 65@#0 -)"&0 "#>)+&4&+ "&*#8&"& -,"56 54,+,-5$*#4 54,+,-5$*#4 4&*5+& -5*54& $#"&4 -5-5*6)4&+ 3#3$5- 85*3&-&&+ @5*34&6& @53&*D "&$& "&6&- .)-6&0 @53&*D &$&) 85+>>)+&&+ 8*,35")* 3$&$#3$#4 <,*-&6U >*5*4363-Z -,"56 #+# -5-@)$)04&+ @&+%&4 @&+%&4
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
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
C:;1K:1;35 H*:689
B%0GID Y%C"$ HI$"(C[,27"H)*I2.GJ# HI$"(C[,27"H)*I2.GJ#7H2K#%.* 7H2K#%.* B)*I2D • •
9,"56 8,8)6&3# [ 8545*.&&+ 8545*.&&+ B( [ JI -5-8*,%543#4&+ -5-8*,%543#4&+ $,$&6 8,8)6&3# 8,8)6&3# 35V&*& 6&+>3)+> 9,"56 ( [ J &"&6&0 V&*& $5*-)"&0 "&+ 8&6#+> -)*&0 )+$)4 )+$)4 -5-&3)44&+ -5-&3)44&+ <&4$,* 54,+,-# 45 "&6&- 8*,%543# 8*,%543# 8,8)6&3#U
cCL=CQ 95+>>)+&4&+ *&3#, $)+>>&6 "&6&- -56#0&$ 8,8)6&3# $,$&6 "5+>&+ -5-@&+"#+>4&+ 8,8)6&3# "5+>&+ $,$&6 8545*.&&+U !3)-3# %&+> "#>)+&4&+ &"&6&0 *&3#, &+$&*& 8,8)6&3# "&+ $,$&6 8545*.&&+ %&+> $5*35"#& &4&+ 3&-& "&*# $&0)+ 45 $&0)+U
!*-9*=3:3- ,-, :,93= 53?, <3-P3= 9,?1-3=3- 4&*5+& ( [ J *&3#, "#45$&0)# @5*)@&0 "&*# A&4$) 45 A&4$) "&+ @5*?&*#&3# 353) "5+>&+ 3)@456,-8,4 "5-,>*&<#3 "5-,>*&<#3 B9)*",V4 "&+ J66#3D EFFEIU
=&-@&0&+
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
7*@&+ 3%3$5-3 -,"563 )-)-+%& "#>)+&4&+ )+$)4 -5-8*,%543#4&+ "#3$*#@)3# 85*-)4#-&+ "&+ &4$#?#$&3 +,+ 85*-)4#-&+ "&6&- 4&A&3&+ 85*4,$&&+ &$&) "&6&- 3)&$) A#6&%&0U
EU RU
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
•
•
(5*@5"&&+ "&*# 5V,+,-#VY "5-,>*&80#V -,"563
XU \U
=&-@&0&+
;#"53+ "#>)+&4&+ "#>)+&4&+ 8&"& A#6&%&0 A#6&%&0 >5,>*&<#3 >5,>*&<#3 %&+> 65@#0 45V#6U 45V#6U 95+>>)+&4&+ ?&*#&@56 #+"585+"5+ #+"585+"5+ %&+> @5*@5"& B65@#0 "5$ "5$ "&+ -#4*,I .,@3 &+" #+V,-5 )*@&+ 3%3$5-3 3%3$5-3 -,"563 #+V6)"5 6&+" )35 V0&*&V$5*#3$#V3 V0&*&V$5*#3$#V3 Bk,+#+>D 5+?#*,+-5+$&6 5+?#*,+-5+$&6 V,+3$*+$3D 6&+" ?&6)5 &+" 6&+" 3)886%I V0&*&V$5*#3$#V3 ,< $05 $*&+38,*$&$#,+ $*&+38,*$&$#,+ 3%3$53%3$5- B5U>UD $*&?56 $*&?56 $#-53D V,3$D &+" "#3$&+V53IU 95+>>)+&4&+ >5,>*&80#V #+<,*-&$#,+ 3%3$5- B_21I $5V0+,6,>% $5V0+,6,>%UU ;&6&- )*@&+ 3%3$5- -,"563D _21 "#&+>>&8 3&+>&$ 85+$#+>U 95-@)$)04&+ #+<,*-&3#D A&4$) "&+ 3)-@5*"&%& %&+> 665@#0 @53&* "#@&+"#+>4&+ 5V,+,-#VY"5-,>*&80#V -,"563U ^#&3&+%& <,4)3 <,4)3 "&6&- 3&$) #3) B* l)&6#$%D l)&6#$%D $*&<<#V $*&<<#V V,+>53$#,+D V,+>53$#,+D 6,33 ,< ,85+ 38&V5D &+" 8)@6#V $*&+38,*$&$#,+I %&+> $#"&4 @#3& "#6&4)4&+ ,650 35@&>#&+ @53&* 5V,+,-#VY"5-,>*&80#V 5V,+,-#VY"5-,>*&80#V -,"563U •
WU
C:;1K:1;35 H*:689
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
•
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
C:;1K:1;35 H*:689
=&-@&0&+
!;8P*=., 7*-9191= 93- *=8-84, )-)-+%& "#0&3#64&+ "5+>&+ -5+>>)+&4&+ 5V,+,-#V "5-,>*&80#V -,"563 %&+> "#@&0&3 35@56)-+%&U
W :C9(CLJL 7= 7 =!9! • • •
•
>8478-*- 7*-??1-33- 5363- 93- 3=:,@,:3. $5*"#*# "&*# 35*&+>4&+ 8*,35")* %&+> *)-#$ )+$)4 -5+"#3$*#@)3#4&+ 8*,%543# *5>#,+&6 45 "&6&- k,+& "#
M5>#,+&6 8*,.5V$#,+3 K&+" )35 &+" &V$#?#$% =*&+38,*$&$#,+
4&A&3&+ #+#U !86#4&3# @#&3&+%& -56#@&$4&+ &+$&*& E\H "&+ WHH k,+& B"#45-@&+>4&+ B"#45-@&+>4&+ )+$)4 &*5& >5,>*&<#3 %&+> 65@#0 45V#6 3585*$# @6,4 35+3)3D >&*#3 85$&4D "&+ 8&*356 6&0&+I B1&+ ;#5>, !33,V#&$#,+ ,< _,?5*+-5+$-5+$3D EFFGZ "&+ O&""566D RHHHIU •
>8478-*- :;3-.78;:3., -5-8*,%543#4&+ -5-8*,%543#4&+ 4&*&4$5*#3$#4 3#3$5- $*&+38,*$&3# 3585*$# ?,6)-5 6&6) 6#+$&3 "&+ $*&+38,*$&3# )-)-U
(5+"&0)6)&+
(5*$#-@&+>&+
=*5+" =*5 +" Jb$*&8,6&$#,+ 95$0,"
c,0,*$ 9,"56 95$0,"
C:;1K:1;35 H*:689
=&-@&0&+
0*;239,-P3 61<1-?3- ,:*;3:,+ 93- *=.75,.,: 3-:3;3 =3;3=:*;,.:,= 7*-??1-33- 5363-O 58=3., =*?,3:3-O 93- .,.:*4 :;3-.78;:3., •
! <)+"&-5+$&6 V0&*&V$5*#3$#V ,< )*@&+ 3%3$5-3 -,"563 •
•
;#3$*#@)3# 8,8)6&3# @5*>&+$)+> 8&"& 0)@)+>&+ &+$&*& *)-&0 B6,4&3# 85*)-&0&+I "&+ $5-8&$ 45*.& B6,4&3# 45*.&IU Q&6 $5*35@)$ "#$5+$)4&+ @5*"&3&*4&+ 8*,@&@#6#$&3 85*.&6&+&+ &+$&* k,+& @5*"&3&*4&+ A&4$)D .&*&4D &$&) @#&%& "&+ 8,6& 85*.&6&+&+ B()$-&+D EFFEIU K,4&3# $5-8&$ $#+>>&6 -5-85+>&*)0# "#3$*#@)3# *)&+> 45*.&D 45*.&D $5*)$&-& 8545*.&&+ %&+> -56&%&+# 8,8)6&3# 6,4&6 3585*$# 85*"&>&+>&+ *#$56 "&+ .&3&U 1#3$5- $*&+38,*$&3# "&+ 4&*&4$5*#3$#4 85+>>)+&&+ 6&0&+ -5-+4&+ 85*&+ 85+$#+> "&6&- -5+5+$)4&+ 6,4&3# 85+")")4 "&+ 45>#&$&+ 6++%& B1&+ ;#5>, !33,V#&$#,+ ,< _,?5*+-5+$-5+$3D EFFGZ "&+ O&""566D RHHHIU
'280E9-/41 •
c,+$,0 c, +$,0 (5+5*&8&+ (5+5*&8&+
•
1#-8)6&+ 1$)"#
(JL;!Q7K7!L
N8-:86 %75,=3.,
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
9J=C;J (MCNJ:12 (JL;7;7:
>"CGH!'(%#
1#-8)6&+
cCL=CQ (JLJM!(!L (JLJM!(!L ;!K!9 (O: =).)&+T 95+%)3)+ 45*&+>4& -&4*, 85-@&+>)+&+ 3,3#&6Y54,+,-# 9&--#+&3&$&D =#- 1$)"# d2c! -5-@)&$ 8*,%543# 85+")")4 &+$&*& $&0)+ RHHH "&+ RHRH "5+>&+ -5+5*&84&+ -5$,"5 4,-8,+5+ V,0,*$ "5+>&+ 85*$#-@&+>&+ $*5+ 85+")")4 &+$&*& $&0)+ RHHH "&+ RHHWU
K&$&* ^56&4&+>T 95$,"5 4,-8,+5+ V,0,*$ "#8&4 4&*5+& -5-#6#4# 4565@#0&+ "&6&- -5*&-&64&+ 3$*)4$)* .)-6&0 85+")")4 35V&*& -5+%56)*)0 -5+%56)*)0 B)-)* "&+ .5+#3 456&-#+I 356&-& 85*#,"5 3&3&*&+ )+$)4 )+$)4 -5+"&8&$4&+ >&-@&*&+ %&+> &4)*&$ -5+>5+ .)-6&0 85+")")4 -5+5$&8 35*$& 85+")")4 85+")")4 @545*.& @545*.& "# 9&--#+&3&$&U ;5+>&+ -5+5$&84&+ $&0)+ 3&3&*&+ 8&"& RHRHD =#- 1$)"# d2c! -5-@)&$ 8*,%543# .)-6&0 85+")")4 -5+)*)$ 45V&-&$&+U
(JL;!Q7K7!L
N8-:86 %75,=3.,
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
9J=C;J (MCNJ:12 (JL;7;7:
>"CGH!'(%#
1#-8)6&+
;5+>&+ -5+5$&84&+ $&0)+ 3&3&*&+ 8&"& RHRHD =#- 1$)"# d2c! -5-@)&$ 8*,%543# .)-6&0 85+")")4 85+")")4 -5+)*)$ 45V&-&$&+U
EU
RU
WU XU
d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
(JL;!Q7K7!L
N8-:86 %75,=3.,
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
9J=C;J (MCNJ:12 (JL;7;7:
>"CGH!'(%#
1#-8)6&+
;5+>&+ 85*3&-&&+ )-)-T
, / ,< 9 C0 – (F (F 9 C1I – 12F 12F
( (H ^ – ; 9# – 9,
T .)-6&0 85+")")4 T .)-6&0 85+")")4 $&0)+ &A&6 T 85*$)-@)0&+ &6&-#&0 B456&0#*&+Y45-&$#&+I T -#>*&3# +5$$, B-#>*&3# -&3)4Y456)&*I
^5*"&3&*4&+ ^5*"&3&*4&+ &3)-3#Y&3)-3# "# &$&3D =#- 1$)"# d2c! $56&0 -5+>0#$)+> $,$&6 .)-6&0 85+")")4 "# A#6&%&0 3$)"# %&+> &4&+ -5+V&8 RDG .)$& 8&"& $&0)+ RHRHU
(JL;!Q7K7!L
N8-:86 %75,=3.,
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
1#-8)6&+
9J=C;J (MCNJ:12 (JL;7;7:
>"CGH!'(%#
(JL;!Q7K7!L
c,+$,0 !86#4&3#
7:7M!L ;!1!M :J(JL;7;7:!L
9J=C;J (MCNJ:12 (JL;7;7:
>"CGH!'(%#
C,47153-
5,+)4, !:.,:6+
5,+)4, ;%"6:.,:6+
I.3&'$%$' /.%$ 1$',$ .'3.' 0"'3"5$1&. )"*&8$1$' /&0#$1 )"'2&2&% -$/$
I.3&'$%$' /.%$ .'3.' 0"'3"5$1&. F$%5+* )"',"8$8 )"*&8$1$' )"'2&2&% 62$*. %+0)+'"' 2"0+3*$F.-7
!&2$1 2.$)#.%$-.%$' 2$' G")$5
I$)$5 0"'/"#$-%$' )"*5$08$1$' )"'2&2&% 8"*2$-$*%$' &-.$ 2$' /"'.- %"#$0.' 2$' F$%5+* '+' 2"0+3*$F.- #$.'',$ 6)"%"*/$$'X2##7
I$5$ ,$'3 2.8&5&1%$' 1$',$ 2$5$ )+)$-. 6&0.) 1)#0)12
I$5$ ,$'3 2.8&5&1%$' #"8.1 8$',
%$