ANALYZING THE THREATS POSED BY NEW WAVE COMMUNISM IN INDONESIA
From the root word “communal” = joint joint owner ownership ship
Definisi
- An ideology/worldview ideology/worldview that opposes individual ownership while idealizing absolute equality and perpetualizing conflicts among different different socioeconomic classes - A socio-political movement movement pushing towards towards the creation creation of classless society and total total control over production production tools by a domineering State State
Ajaran
Pengaruh
• Based on the 18 th century teachings of Karl Marx (Communist Manifesto Manifesto and Das Kapital ) saying that the State is a tool. International Communism is h heavily eavily influenced by Leninism • International with with two two main main key key ideas ideas:: “labor party ” and “revolution ”.
- One-third of the world’s countries used to adhere to communism, which they initially considered a decent stream of thought seeking to balance the equation across different different socioeconomic classes in the society and put an end to inequality. - Communism, however however,, had soon turned into an ideology that appeared appeared to be extreme, rough and intimidating because it was mostly run by coldblooded dictators. Murders, physical torture, massacres as well as divideand-conquer political strategies were common tactics employed to
The world’s socialist-communist socialist-communist dictators Stalin (1879-1953). Soviet Union leader, a merciless dictator, dictator, Man of Steel, murdered 30 million Russians, despising religions (like ( like an Atheist). He was the leader of the communist party, party, a party which oversaw almost half of the world’s population at that time. After the World War War II ended, he installed ‘Iron Curtains’ that turned Eastern Europe into communist countries. Mao Zedong (1893-1976), the founding father of China in 1949, a philosopher and leader of the Maoist party, which followers were referred to as the Red. Mao allowed academics and the educated to speak their minds only to subsequently capture them to be incarcerated in villages. China’s cultural revolution, went on from 1960 -1966, attacked the capitalists using the ‘villages besiege cities’ tactic.
Hitler (1889-1945) was a German chancellor and the leader of the NAZI socialist-nationalist party. party. Prior to that, th at, he was active in the Labor Party. Party. In his book Mein Kampf (My Struggle), he insinuated that non-Europeans were descendants of monkeys (influenced by Charles Darwin’s theory). His concepts of eugenics and race rectification became central in NAZI’s concept of evolution.
The world’s socialist-communist socialist-communist dictators
Lenin (1870-1924) was a Russian communist revolutionary. He was the proponent of the concepts of revolution and the establishment of a labor/communist party . He incited the rebellion of the laborers, giving rise to the October Revolution in Russia. Soviet Union’s Union’s first Prime Minister, Minister, leader of the Bolshevik party and the proponent of the Leninist ideology. Benito Mussolini (1883-1945), an Italian dictator who adhered to Fascism. He was active in the Italian socialist party, party, influenced by Marx. He also established the Fascist movement (‘black cloth’). Thanks to its prioritization of violent and anarchic tactics, tactics, the movement managed to scare King Emanuel III, II I, leading in the appointment of Mussolini as the new leader for a new governmental governmental system. Since then, Italy became much-feared; its first breakthrough being the massacre/genocide massacre/genocide of the Ethiopians (the Blacks), influenced by Darwin’s theory (same as Hitler). Pol Pot (1925-1998) (1925-1998) was the leader of the Khmer Khmer Rouge while serving serving as Cambodia’s Cambodia’s prime minister from 1976 to 1979. He was responsible for the murder of 2 million Cambodian people and the establishment of the Communist Republic. He was highly critical towards towards his opponents. He evacuated residents from cities to villages. The red army was feared; it was backed by the US and Thailand during the fierce conflict between Cambodia and Vietnam.
Communist countries STILL EXISTING • China • Cuba • North Korea • Laos • Vietnam
ONES THAT HAVE CEASED TO EXIST • Soviet Union (1922-1991) • East Germany(1949-1990) Germany(1949-1990) • People’s People’s Republic of Hungary (1949 -1989) • People’s People’s Republic of Bulgaria (1946-1990) • People’s People’s Republic of Poland (1944 -1989) • People’s People’s Republic of Romania (1947 -1989) People’s Republic of Albany (1944 -1992) • People’s • Socialist Federation Republic of Yugoslav (1943-1992) • Socialist Republic of Czech (1948-1989) • People’s People’s Republic of Angola(1975– 1992) • People’s People’s Republic of Benin(1972– 1990) • People’s People’s Republic of Congo(1970– 1992) and Derg (1974-1987) (1974-1987) • People’s People’s Democratic Republic of Ethiopia(1987 -1991) and • People’s People’s Democratic Republic of Mozambique (1975– 1990) • Southern Yemen (1969 –1990) • Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (1978 –1992) • People’s People’s Republic of Cambodia (1979-1989) and the Democratic Republic of
Characteristics Characteristics of Communist Nations • A single-party system featuring the communist party • Free healthcare and education programs become priority • Ministers serve executive function • Being imposed with travel bans from the US (e.g.: US citizens citizens prohibited prohibited from visiting Cuba) • Fidel Castro builds Cuba based on his interest on socialism, he is not authoritarian but very populist • The revolution is constantly being systematically planned • 50% of population constituted by mixedrace people • Abortion rate: 77%. Low population growth • Developing Developing country; country; world’s world’s biggest biggest sugar sugar producer
CUBA
socia l-democratic • Dominated by social-democratic and labor parties • Authoritarian leadership by dictators • Nation prioritizes military advancement, an epitome of nation advancement • Limited individual freedom • Strategic leadership system inculcates loyalty among its people • Kim Jong Il comes up with the “Jache” ideology = people taking control of their own destinies • Its people living in poverty because they have to struggle for their own welfare, international trade being restricted • The most insular nation on Earth • Nation takes control of its abundant resources; people have to make do with what’s available • Media being gagged, opponents quashed
N. Korea
Characteristics Characteristics of Communist Nations -Single-party system featuring the revolutionary party of the people (a continuation of the popular communist movement called PATHET LAO). -Geographically bordered by Vietnam and China; also influenced by Chinese communism -PATHET LAO succeeded in overthrowing the Laos kingdom after fighting against France, cooperating with Vietnam to expulse colonists before ultimately turning against Vietnam. -- Laos started started to advance advance as a nation after government lifted up tight control over its economy in 1986; economic growth amounts to 6% -Opened up bilateral ties with the US in 1994, officially registered as ASEAN member in 1997 - Information Information flow being being relatively closed compared to other ASEAN countries; no railway connections yet - Low educa educational tional level level
LAOS LAOS
- Vietnam is part of China’s royalty system; and just like China, both both Confucianism Confucianism and Buddhism Buddhism lay the foundation for the religious lives of the Vietnamese. - In its single-party single-party system, the Vietnam Vietnam Communist Party has the highest longevity of all parties in the country; party functionaries set up a committee to deliberate bills. - Communism serves as the political political direction although its influence among many aspects of people’s lives has become lenient since 1990, when Vietnam opened itself up to Southeast Asia. - Communal Communal lives carry high socialist socialist vibe - In 2013, the reformist issued ‘Petition 72’ pushing toward a multi-party system but in 2014 the communist party took revenge against such initiative by issuing a new constitution constitution limiting
people’s political rights.
VIETNAM
THE RISE OF CHINA GEO-STRA GEO-S TRATEG TEGY Y: PEACEFUL RISE China’s peaceful rise is the result of the nation offering a mutually beneficial scheme to other countries through a number of diplomacy programs. ECONOMY/ TRADE/ FUNDS/ INVESTMENTS – POLITICAL AGENDA...China wants to establish its “Middle Kingdom” in Asia, making all Asian countries dependent towards it.
STRATEGY STRA TEGY:: SMILE SMIL E DIPLOMACY AND CHARM C HARM OFFENSIVE China applies this strategy for the Southeast Asia and Pacific regions, because its longterm strategy has always always involved ASEAN, particularly Indonesia. Beijing builds its political influence upon economic and diplomacy activities.
NEW TREND OF COMMUNISM The West perceives that China has turned into a capitalist country due to the latter’s market-based economy, but that is just China’s way of disguising itself. Socialist economy has turned into a socialist market economy and now it has turned into a semimarket economy with Chinese Chin ese characteristics.
CHINA’S SILK ROAD
REBALANCING POWER : USA in the Pacific
What is new wave communism? DEFINITION 21th century communist movement movement
Abandoning the “pure” style
EVOLUTION EVOL UTION OF MOVEMENT Prior Prioritiz itizing ing So Soft ft Power ower
Strategic planning across all lines
TARGET AND AIM Not aiming at followers but at policies and system
Using religion, media and social movement to attain their agendas
Pure communism • Social system demands absolute equality • Nation has to possess total control of resources • Dominated by violent and murderous approaches • Labor party has strong presence • Religion seen as drug; opposes organized religion • Class conflict perpetuated; laborers attack capitalists
New wave communism • Idealizing pluralism and diversity in the social system • Nation could still control the market but now loosen its rein on the market. • Strategic influence through soft power influences all aspects of life. • Any parties allowed to flourish; yet most of them embody communistsocialist slant • Religion seen as an institutional instrument needed to boost the development development of communism in social system. • Businesspeople have guaranteed laborers’ welfare, making it difficult for them to launch revolution.
New wave communist propaganda
New wave communist propaganda
New wave communist propaganda
Anticipating new-wave communism’s strategies
Indonesia turns into a democratic republic nation with communist directions
A system that allows communism to flourish
Erase anticommunist regulations
Supporting procommunism leader
Infiltrate through all lines
Social movements
The flourishing of parties with socialist and communist bend
Divide and conquer
COMMUNISM COMMUNIS M IN INDONESIA: 3 UPRISINGS UPRIS INGS I. Nov 19, 1926 (On National Revival Day) Five combatants: ARMY, AIR FORCE, NAVY,, FARMERS, NAVY LABORERS
II. Sept 17,1948 (Madiun (Madiu n : Mus Muso o and Ali Alimin min))
100.000 WEAPONS
In seizing power, it has to be able to make use of the enemy,, including enemy incl uding government’s war battalion
AIDIT follows
III. September 30,, 19 30 1965 65 (DN (DN Aidit) January 25, 1965
TROTZKY
Establishing 10 special bureaus
1. Destr Destroyi oying ng sol solida idarit rity y 2. Inf Infilt iltra ration tion from from the the insid inside e
THREEELEMENT METHOD
Regional revolutionary movements
FARMERS AND THE VILLAGE
Soldiers / traitor traitorss
THREAT ANALYSIS Comprising two factors: -Threat carriers -Threat objects T = (d (de esire + expect cta ation) + (knowl wle edge + resource cess) T = threat Desire = enthusiasm Expectation = confidence Knowledge = inf informati ormation on Resources = skills, experience, materials
(desire) (Expectation)
Elements of Threat (inte (in tent ntion ion= = i) Threat
(Knowledge) (Resources)
(Capabi (Cap abilit lityy = C)
Example of Threat Analysis
Taken from: Hank Prunckun – Methods of IntelligenceAnalysis
Analysis of new wave communism threat Desire (4) Intention Expectation (4)
(8)
Threat
16,55 Knowledge (4,3) Capability Resources (4,25)
(8,55)
Scientific Methods of Inquiry for Intelligence Intelligence Analysis Sumber : Handbook of Scientific
N0
SCORE
Threat of new wave communism in Indonesia 1
2
AVERAGE
3
4
5
DESIRE
1
Spreading communism as an anti-oppression and anti-neoliberal ideology
x
2
Revivalism of communism and sociology as teachings, discussion materials an a nd role models
x
3
Turning Indonesia into a nation with socialist-communist directions (China)
x
4
EXPECTATION
1
Permeate into all aspects of society’s life
X
2
Accepted by the society through soft power methods using symbols of struggle
X
3
Suppor Supportin ting g pro-L pro-Lef eft/s t/soc ocial ialist ist/co /commu mmunis nistt leade leaders rs and and figure figuress
x
4
INTENTION
8
KNOWLEDGE
1
Using human rights and democracy issues while positioning oneself as victim to gain sympathy
2
Supp Suppor orte ted d by leg legal al war warfar fare ea and nd wea weakk reg regul ulat atio ions ns
3
Separating the army from p eople through “villages besiege cities” concept
X x
4,3
x
RESOURCES
1
Network already existing, from different societal layers to the government
X
2
Aware of the weaknesses of the army, government and state apparatus
x
3
Making use of Generation Z, social media and technology
X
4
High High quali quality ty resour resources ces:: underst understand and defens defense, e, publ public ic policy policy,la ,law w and politi politics cs CAPABILITY
4,25
x
8,55
Conclusion of threat
• Based on threat analysis, new wave communism communism achieves score of 16,55 which is High
analysis Suggestions using threat analysis
• National consolidation, particularly among the th e Army, Army, needed • Mapping of the new force with its new network power
Socio-political analysis of new-wave communism Politics • Flourishing thanks to China’s China’s support • Changing international political map map (Asian (Asi an pivot) and its hegemony brings hope for communism to find new style. • Regional autonomy makes it difficult for centralization • Monitoring of new movements difficult, difficult to detect new movements • SCORE = 4
Economy • Economic growth below 5% • Exchange rate with US dollar reaches Rp 14.000-16.000 • Expensive staple foods • Rampant layoffs (50,000) • Tough economic situation giving rise to ideas of revolution • Chin China’ a’ss loan to Indo Indone nesi sia a reac reache hess US$50B.
Social-cultural • Indonesian society easy to divide and conquer, conquer, remnants of divide et impera strategy during colonialism • Peopl eople e mani manipu pula late ted d so they do not believe in the National Army or government • New wave communism agents infiltrate villages with ‘villages besiege cities’ concept • Indication of conflict among Chinese expatriate workers (10.000.00 (10.000.000 0 ) with Indonesians
SCORE E =6 • SCOR SCORE E= • SCOR
Technology • Last week a new wave communism individual launched website of Indonesian history • Social media makes it easy to infiltrate the internet with Leftist messages • Generation Z becomes target of new-wave communist campaign • Dissemination of
communist ebook/books
• SCORE = 4
Social political analysis-contd Environment • China’ China’ss hegemony hegemony in the world, particularly Asia, makes strategic environment uncertain (Pivot Asia) • ASEAN divided into 4 vs 4 on that cont context ext • China’ China’ss new style style of of trade and geostrategy permeates into Vietna Vie tnam, m, Laos, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and Indones Indonesia ia • Middle kingdom with silk road as weapon. They force Indonesia to apply maritime axis • SCORE : 4
Legal • Media and press freedom not monitored • Restrictive Army, Intelligence and Human Rights laws • Subversion erased • Book censorship institution erased • Village and regional autonomy laws become opportunities for new wave communism SCORE E: • SCOR 6
Organization • New wave communism permeates every line • Cooperation with communist parties from other countries • Funding support from China pe rmeate into • Target: permeate policies and system • Targeting social media and Z generation SCORE E: • SCOR 5
Results of socio-political analysis
ANALYSIS RESULT
CONCLUSION
RECOMMENDATIONS USING SOCIOPOLITICAL APPROACH
• Economic, legal and organizational factors become dominantly influential for new wave communism in Indonesia
New wav wave comm commun unis ism m flou flouri rish sh in Indo Indone nesi sia a due due to econ econom omic ic facto actorrs • New as well well as weak weak regul egula atory ory sys system. tem.
• Not too economically dependent on China while strengthening popu populi list st econ econom omy y, reje reject ctin ing g Chin Chines ese e work worker erss to abso absorb rb loca locall labo labore rerrs into into the workf workfor orce. ce. • Propose judicial reviews to laws that adversely impact the National Army and Intelligence Body Fighting new wave communism through solidarity between TNI, university
RECOMMENDATION FOR THE ARMY POLITICS • FORMULATE MATERIALS IN LAWS THAT ADVERSELY IMPACT THE TNI, LOBBY THE “SECOND D HAND” HAND” FOR HOUSE HOUSE OF REPRE REPRESEN SENT TATIVES, TIVES, USE “SECON FOR JUDI JUDICI CIAL AL REVI REVIEW EW
STRATEGIC STEPS • CONSOLIDATION BETWEEN THE NATIONAL ARMY WITH OTHER RELATED STAKEHOLDERS
(NATIONAL (NATIONAL RESILIENCE INSTITUTE, HOME MINISTRY MI NISTRY ETC) • GRAND STRATEGY TO FIGHT NEW WAVE COMMUNISM (POLITICAL, CULTURAL,
ECONOMIC, CYBER, LEGAL AND SECURITY STRATEGIES) STRATEGIES)
TACTIC • FORMING A NEW WAVE COMMUNISM TASK FORCE
ADJUSTMENT IN THE ARMY COMMUNITY • PERCEPTION ADJUSTMENT • SEMINARS IN HIGH SCHOOL/UNIVERSITIES TARGETING GEN. Z • PUBLIC DISCUSSIONS TO EMBRACE THE PUBLIC
Vel elo ox et ex exac actu tuss
THANK YOU
Flashback: PKI’S strategy in 19 65 Strategy 1. Infiltrate Syarekat Islam
3The setting the stage 1. Gi Givi ving ng Soeka Soe karno rno a ride ride 2. Land reform
2. Second rebellion 3. Embracing Soekarno
5. Infilt Infiltrat rate e the army 6. Infiltrate state apparatus
1. Soepard Soepardjo jo assi assigned gned to the palace
3. Inciting the masses 4. Agitation and propaganda
4. Tak ake e ove overr org organ aniz izat atio ion n and party leaders
evening of betrayal
5. Creating offensiverevolutionary situation
6. Army Army vs Nav Navyy (Oema (Oe marr Dan Dani) i) 7. Board of generals issue
2. Simultaneous abduction
3. Tortur orture e and murder