Deber Curvas de Declinación 2017 - 2017

Par Para los los da&o da&oss de de la la si' si'ui uien en&e &e &abl &abla a iden iden* *ca carr el el mod model elo o de de dec decli lina naci ción ón acep acep&a &abl ble e de&e de&erm rmin inar ar los los p una ra&a de producción al *nal del #no año predecir anualmen&e producción de acei&e Tiempo (a (años) 0.1 0.! 0.$ 0." 0.% 0.6 0. 0.8 0.# 1 1.1 1.! 1.$ 1." 1.% 1.6 1. 1.8 1.# ! !.1 !.! !.$ !." !.% !.6 !. !.8 !.# $ $.1 $.! $.$ $."

Producción (1 (1000 BO BOPD) Qo (B (BOPD) b (a (anual) b (m (mensual) Np (B (Bls) 8.66 866 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0# 0 8.$61 8$61 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   515903.895 8.08! 808! 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   470382.963 .81! 81! 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   455209.319 .%6 %60 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   424862.031 .$!6 $!6 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   394514.743 .11 110 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   364167.455 6.#0$ 6#0$ 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   348993.811 6.0% 60% 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   333820.167 6.%!% 6%!% 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   303472.879 6.$"% 6$"% 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   303472.879 6.18$ 618$ 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   273125.591 6.0!1 60!1 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   273125.591 %.8 %8 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   242778.303 %.$$ %$$ 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   242778.303 %.%#8 %%#8 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   227604.659 %."! %"! 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   212431.016 %.$"6 %$"6 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   212431.016 %.!!# %!!# 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   197257.372 %.11! %11! 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   197257.372 %.00" %00" 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   182083.728 ".#0% "#0% 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   166910.084 ".806 "806 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   166910.084 ".0 "0 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   166910.084 ".61 "61 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   151736.44 ".%! "%! 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   151736.44 ".""6 """6 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   136562.796 ".$%6 "$%6 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   151736.44 ".!8" "!8" 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   121389.152 ".!0$ "!0$ 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   136562.796 ".1$1 "1$1 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   121389.152 ".0%# "0%# 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   121389.152 $.##6 $##6 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   106215.508 $.#!" $#!" 0. 0.!16"#$81 0.0180"11%0#   121389.152

/O0 Q 12 T

ar+me&ros del modelo , 10000

Np & (Bls)

B (-dQ QdT) 0

0

515903.895

0.36598493

986286.858 0.345211581 1441496.18

0.34562212

   e     l    &    i    T    s    i    4    3

1866358.21 0.333333333 2260872.95 0.319410319

1000

2625040.41 0.303797468

0

0.%

2974034.22 0.299869622

1

1.%

!

!.%

$

$.%

"

34is Ti&le

3307854.38 0.295302013 3611327.26 0.275862069 3914800.14 0.283687943

Np 5s Q 

4187925.73 0.262008734 4461051.33 0.269058296 4703829.63 0.245022971

#000000 8000000

4946607.93 0.251177394 5174212.59 0.241157556

000000

5386643.61 0.230263158

6000000

5599074.62 0.235690236

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5796332 0.223752151

"000000

5993589.37 0.228873239 6175673.09 0.215827338 6342583.18 0.201834862 6509493.26 0.205992509 6676403.35 0.210325048 6828139.78 0.194931774 6979876.22 0.198807157 7116439.02 0.182186235 7268175.46

0.20661157

7389564.61 0.168067227 7526127.41 0.192719486 7647516.56 0.174291939 7768905.71 0.177383592 7875121.22 0.157657658 7996510.37 0.183486239

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Para los da&os dados de la si'uein&e &abla iden*car el modelo de declinación sas;ac&orio prede un 5alor mar'inal de "00 BOPD , calcular las reser5as
Produccón (1000 BOPD) Qo (BOPD) b (anual) b (mensual) Np (Bls) #.6$ #6$0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 0 #.!8 #!80 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 482092.461 8.#% 8#%0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%%   454544.32 8.6" 86"0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%%   426996.18 8.$% 8$%0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 399448.039 8.0 800 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 385673.969 .81 810 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 358125.828 .%% %%0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 358125.828 .$! $!0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 316803.617 .0# 0#0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 316803.617 6.8 680 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 303029.547 6.6 660 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 275481.406 6." 6"0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 275481.406 6.!8 6!80 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 261707.336 6.1 6100 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 247933.266 %.#$ %#$0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 234159.195 %. %0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 220385.125 %.61 %610 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 220385.125 %."6 %"60 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%%  206611.055 %.$! %$!0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 192836.984 %.18 %180 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 192836.984 %.0% %0%0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 179062.914 ".#! "#!0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 179062.914 ".8 "800 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 165288.844 ".68 "680 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 165288.844 ".% "%0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 151514.773 "."6 ""60 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 151514.773 ".$% "$%0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 151514.773 ".!% "!%0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 137740.703 ".1% "1%0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 137740.703 ".06 "060 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 123966.633 $.# $#0 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 123966.633 $.88 $880 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%% 123966.633 $.8 $800 0.!6"##066 0.0!!08!%%%  110192.562

cir el empo cuando la ra&a de producción declina a producción mar'inal alcan=ada Np & (Bls)

B 0

482092.461 936636.781 1363633 1763081 2148755 2506880.8 2865006.62 3181810.24 3498613.86 3801643.41 4077124.81 4352606.22 4614313.55 4862246.82 5096406 5316791.14 5537176.27 5743787.32 5936624.3 6129461.29 6308524.2 6487587.12 6652876 6818164.8 6969679.58 7121194.35 7272709.12 7410449.83 7548190.53 7672157.16 7796123.8 7920090.43 8030283

0 0.$1%%1 0.$681%08 0.$%8#6$ 0.$"$0%$# 0.$"6#6"06 0.$$!#06%$ 0.$""$086 0.$1"!06% 0.$!""00%6 0.$!0!$!# 0.!##8%00 0.$0#11#01 0.$0!%" 0.!#%081# 0.!866#1 0.!!#6$6 0.!8%!0"## 0.!"!%! 0.!6$1%8# 0.!0!0! 0.!%"!%" 0.!6"!!6" 0.!% 0.!%6"10!6 0.!"000!! 0.!"66$6 0.!%!8$%6 0.!$%!#"1! 0.!"0#6$86 0.!!16"88 0.!!600!% 0.!$1#%86 0.!10%!6$!

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Para los da&os dados en la si'uein&e &abla iden*car el modelo de declinación acep&able de&ermina producción declina a !% ?sc;da, , las reser5as an&es de alcan=ar la producción Time (?on&@) Producon 9a&e (?sc;da,) Produccion(BOPD) b (mensual) Np (Bls) 1 #0".8" 1611"6.#!81! 0.0####81$ 0 ! 818.$ 1"%811.!1##"6%! 0.0####81$ 4665209.48 $ "0.8! 1$1#$%.88601#%# 0.0####81$ 4220955.41 " 60.$! 11#$80.!$1%!!0 0.0####81$ 3819501.43 % 606.%$ 10801#.%#0$8!#0$ 0.0####81$ 3455971.58 6 %"8.81 #$#.#8!1#0%61 0.0####81$  3127115.21  "#6.%# 88"$#.8#$1"$$66 0.0####81$ 2829139.93 8 ""#.$$ 800!$.1%!!00$% 0.0####81$ 2560420.39 # "06.% !"0.8$61%$161! 0.0####81$ 2316622.43 10 $6.88 6%%1.$6"!0$0!6 0.0####81$ 2096120.71 11 $$!.8 %#!8!.!#6081#!$ 0.0####81$ 1896748.16 1! $01.1# %$6"0.!"#$$!1"6 0.0####81$ 1716337.66 1$ !!.%$ "8%$6.06"11$#80" 0.0####81$ 1552722.14 1" !"6.6 "$#18.06%80%8 0.0####81$   1404818 1% !!$.1$ $#$8.!01!"6660 0.0####81$ 1271541.82 16 !01.# $%#%.!%$"6$#$6 0.0####81$  1150184.62 1 18!.68 $!%$".!8$100801 0.0####81$ 1041288.19 18 16%.$ !#"$#.00!61"1%8 0.0####81$ 941601.913 1# 1"#.% !66$.%#16!#%6 0.0####81$ 852209.327 !0 1$%.$" !"10$.!#""6!1%% 0.0####81$ 770943.339 !1 1!!."6 !180#."$#00!61" 0.0####81$ 697803.949 !! 110.8 1#$!.8%8"1"#%## 0.0####81$ 631707.613 !$ 100.!6 18%%."$%""08" 0.0####81$ 571029.008 !" #0.! 161%6.!$06$!!$% 0.0####81$ 516851.683

r parame&ros de modelo predecor el empo cuando la

Np & (Bls)

/O0 Q 12 T

0 4665209.48

1000

8886164.89 12705666 16161638 19288753 22117893 24678313

100

26994936 29091057 30987805 32704142 34256865

10

0

%

10

1%

!0

!%

35661683 36933224

Np 5s T

38083409 39124697

%0000000

40066299

"%000000

40918508

"0000000

41689452 42387256 43018963 43589992 44106844

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0

100

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600

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800

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Np

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Para la da&a dada en la si'uien&e &abla iden*car el modelo de declinación sas;ac&orio cuando la producción alcance un 5alor mar'inal de !% BOPD , producción de pe&roleo an Time (?on&@)

Producon 9a&e (s&bda,) 1 ! $ " % 6  8 # 10 11 1! 1$ 1" 1% 16 1 18 1# !0 !1 !! !$ !"

b (mensual) Np (Bls) Np & (Bls) 1!6 0.0###8$%! 0 0 11"%.# 0.0###8$%!  36844.6922 36844.6922 10$." 0.0###8$%!   33011.1404 69855.8325 #$8. 0.0###8$%! 30029.489 99885.3215 8"#.1 0.0###8$%!  27260.8127 127146.134 68.6 0.0###8$%!  24492.1364 151638.271 6#%.1 0.0###8$%!  22362.3854 174000.656 6!#.$ 0.0###8$%!  20019.6593 194020.315 %6#.1 0.0###8$%!  18315.8585 212336.174 %1%.! 0.0###8$%!  16399.0826 228735.257 "66.! 0.0###8$%!  14908.2569 243643.514 "!1." 0.0###8$%! 13630.4064 257273.92 $81.% 0.0###8$%!  12139.5807 269413.501 $"%.1 0.0###8$%!   11074.7052 280488.206 $1!.! 0.0###8$%!  10009.8297 290498.035 !8!.8 0.0###8$%! 8944.95417 299442.99 !%%.% 0.0###8$%!  8306.02887 307749.018 !$1. 0.0###8$%!  7241.15337 314990.172 !0#.$ 0.0###8$%!  6815.20318 321805.375 18#. 0.0###8$%!  5963.30278 327768.678 11.% 0.0###8$%! 5537.35258 333306.03 1%%." 0.0###8$%!  4898.42728 338204.458 1"0. 0.0###8$%!  4472.47708 342676.935 1!6. 0.0###8$%!  4259.50198 346936.437

e&erminar los par+me&ros del modelo predecir el empo uali=ada.

/O0 Q 12 T 10000

1000

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1 0

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Np 5s T "00000 $%0000 $00000 !%0000 !00000 1%0000 100000 %0000 0

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