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Case Problem: FORECASTING LOST SALES
The Carlson Department Store suffered heavy damage when a hurricane struck on August 31, 2! The store was closed for four months months "Septem#er 2 through Decem#er 2$ and Carlson is now involved in a dispute with its insurance company a#out the amount of lost sales during the time the store was closed! Two key issues must #e resolved% "1$ The amount of sales Carlson would have made if the hurricane had not struck and "2$ &hether Carlson is entitled to any compensation for e'cess sales due to increased #usiness activity after the storm! (ore than )* #illion in federal disaster relief and insurance money came into the county, resulting in increased sales at all department stores and numerous other #usinesses during the period Septem#er 2 to Decem#er 2! Ta#le Ta#le 1 gives Carlson+s Carlson+s sales data for the * months preceding the storm! "Data availa#le in -'cel .ile /C0 .( ost Sales lank$
TABLE1:Sal esf orCarl sonDepar t mentStor e,Sept ember 1996t hrou hAu ust2000 $Mi Mi l l i ons Mont h 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Januar y Fe br uar y Mar c h Apr i l May June Jul y Aug us t Se pt e mbe r Oc t obe r Nov e mbe r De c e mbe r
Ta#le #le 2 repo report rtss tota totall sale saless for for the the * mo mont nths hs prec preced edin ing g the the stor storm m for for all all department stores in the county "Septem#er 1445 6 August 2$, as well as the total sales for all department stores in the county for the four months the Carlson Depart Departmen mentt Store Store was closed closed "Septem#e "Septem#err 2 6 Decem# Decem#er er 2$! "Data "Data availa#le in -'cel .ile /C0 .( ost Sales lank$
Carlson+s managers have asked you to analy7e these data and develop estimates of the lost sales at the Carlson Department Store for the months of Septem#er 2 through Decem#er 2! They also have asked you to determine whether a case can #e made for e'cess storm8related sales during the same period! 9f such a case can #e made, Carlson is entitled to compensation for e'cess sales it would have earned in addition to ordinary sales!
Managerial Report 0repare a report for the managers of the Carlson Department Store that summari7es your findings, forecasts, and recommendations! 9nclude the following "use 12 months moving average$% 1! An estimate of the seasonal inde' for the ne't 12 months : forecast of the ordinary sales for the ne't months "Septem#er 2 6 Decem#er
2!
3!
!
2$ for Carlson Department Stores assuming there has #een no hurricane! An estimate of the seasonal inde' for the ne't 12 months : forecast of the ordinary sales for the ne't months "Septem#er 2 6 Decem#er 2$ for Countrywide All Department Stores assuming there has #een no hurricane! An estimate of e'cess storm related sales for all the Department Stores in the county for Septem#er 2 through Decem#er 2 given that there was hurricane! An estimate of lost sales "ordinary ; e'cess storm related$ for the Carlson Department Store for Septem#er 2 through Decem#er 2 given that there was hurricane!
