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Luxu Luxury ry Mark Market et Upda Update te 2012 Outlook 2004
2005
2006
2007
2009
June June 10, 10, 2009 2009 This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Comp any solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent.
In 2008 the luxury goods market was flat
Worldwide Luxury Goods Market trend (1995-2008 E)
CAGR: 6,5%
€200B 159
160 130 134 134 128 134
80 76
CAGR 04-08 E 6%
84
93 98 CAGR 00-04 0,8%
+6,5%
CAGR 95-00 14%
40 11% 10%
0
146
111
120
5%
14% 17%
170 170
+0% 3%
0%
-5%
5%
9%
9%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20072008E
2 This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Comp any solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent.
In 2009 we expect the market to shrink by 10% ESTIMATES Bain Forecast April 2009
Main Assumptions
By semester
€200B
170
• Slower decrease in the second half of the year: -5% - 0%
154 150
100
-10%
By channel
• Retail Like-for-Like decreasing as the current trend (-5%, -10%) • Compensation effect to the decrease of already committed new openings and full potential of 2008 numerous new openings
50
0
• First semester average market trend as the worst actual one: -15%-20%
2008
2009FK At constant exchange rates – assuming no change in the forex for 2009
Source: Bain analysis
• Wholesale crisis as for actual order campaign (-20%) with aggressive mark-down campaigns (-30% on 50% of products) 3
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Comp any solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent.
We developed long-term forecasts for luxury market following a twofold approach Methodology Top-down approach
• Regression based on correlation of Luxury market and real GDP between 1995-2008 • Market forecast based on GDP projections by geographical area
Luxury goods market Forecasts
Bottom-up approach
• Market estimates based on benchmarking of competitors’ current trading and sell-in/sell-out projections for the next seasons
Sources • Bain Luxury Study • Analyst reports • Worldwide trade associations • International Monetary Fund (World Economic Database) • Bloomberg research
• Interviews to -players’ top management -industry experts -luxury retailers • Analyst reports
*wholesale calculated through average mark-ups
4
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Comp any solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent.
