787
FEATURE STRAP
A FLIGHTGLOBAL SPECIAL REPORT HOW ONE OF THE MOST R ADICAL PROGRAMMES IN AVIATION HISTORY WAS CONCEIVED, DEVELOPED AND – AT LAST – DELIVERED INTO SERVICE OCTOBER 2011
BELIEVE THE THE DREAM DREAM The incredible inside story stor y of Boeing’s Boeing’s visionary visionary airliner fightglobal.com/787
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COMMENT
OCTOBER 2011
FROM DREAM TO DELIVERY JON OSTROWER flightglobal.com/FlightBlogger
“The aircraft’s gestation, an unprecedented trial by fire, transformed Boeing and its suppliers”
A
ter nearly a decade, rom concept to design to production and fight test, the world’s rst majority composite jetliner is ready or its entry into service with Japan’s All Nippon Airways. In this supplement, su pplement, we take a look back on the Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner’s Dreamliner’s history histor y – and a look ahead a head on what’s next or the new jetliner. Whether the 787 is the rst or second all-new widebody jetliner o the 21st century is a debate best let to the duelling airramers. air ramers. What is clear c lear is, Boeing’s Boeing’s 787 pushes the boundaries o what’s possible harder than any commercial aircrat since si nce de Havilland’s Havilland’ s Comet, bringing widespread innovation nose to tail and wingtip win gtip to wingtip. Boeing’s Boeing’ s own history histor y points to its role as material innovator innovator,, having introduced its model 247 in 1933, the rst all-metal commercial aircrat. Boeing only built 75 247s, and by stark contrast, the airramer holds more mor e than 820 orders or its Dreamliner Drea mliner.. Nearly eight decades later, the 787, with 220 to 250 2 50 seat capacity, capac ity, is widely considered a “game changer”, oering unprecedented economics on long-range routes up to 8,000nm (14,800km) apart, taking advantage o the growing ragmentation o route structures and passenger preerence or point-to-point travel. The airramer’s relationship with its suppliers, customers, customer s, labour and nance is a refection o business in the 21st century. Rapidly growing economies and new markets required not only an aircrat that could connect distant points on the globe, but also created an environment that saw Asian partners play a larger-than-ever role on designing and building the 787. The aircrat’s gestation, an unprecedented trial by re, transormed Boeing and its suppliers, providing it new actories, new technologies, and lessons both bot h expensive and invaluable.
FLIGHT INTERNATIONAL
Editor Niall O’Keee Editor at large Jon Ostrower Contributors John Crot Siva Govindasamy Michael Gubisch Max Kingsley-Jones Mary Kirby Stephen Trimble Global art editor Dominic Ray Global production editor Louise Murrell Designers Heather Bowen Lauren Mills
4 Sub-editors Martin Cooper Andrew Hemphill Production Rachel Kemp Graphics Tim Bicheno-Brown Editor Flight International Murdo Morrison Editor Airline Busines Business s Max Kingsley-Jones Publisher Mark Pilling
Flightglobal Quadrant House The Quadrant, Sutton, Surrey SM2 5AS UK www.flightglobal.com
©2011 by Reed Business Inormation. All rights reserved. No part o this publication may be reprinted, or reproduced or utilised in any orm or by electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereater invented, including photocopying and recording or in any inormation storage and retrieval system without prior permission in writing rom the publisher.
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NEW MATERIAL WORLD
The 50% use o composites is the grandest innovation o a radical design
THEORY OF EVOLUTION
PUSHING POWER TO LIMIT
20 The 787 gave engine manuacturers a chance to throw away the rulebook
STARTING A REVOLUTION
22 What will airlines do with a jetliner touted A complex global supply chain proved a challenge but is crucial to the 787 programme as delivering a step change in eciency?
TURBULENT TIMES
12 From concept to certication, we chart the Dreamliner’s Dreamliner’ s decade o ups and downs
GETTING CONNECTED
14 Many customers hoped the 787 would revolutionise IFE. Some may have to wait
KEEPING THE DREAM ALOFT
16 MRO houses are examining how best to look ater the world’ world’s s newest airliner
SKIN-DEEP
24 Our detailed microcutaway oers a glimpse inside the structure o the Dreamliner
ROLE REVERSALS
26 Can the 787 switch to being a military aircrat or reighter?
THROWING THE GAUNTLET
28 Can Boeing’s Boeing’s arch-rival come up with a worthy rival with the A350 XWB
DISPLAY OF INNOVA INNOVATION TION
18 The fightdeck o the 787 builds on many o the developments introduced with the 777
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STRUCTURE & SYSTEMS
LIVING IN A NEW MATERIAL WORLD In its quest to deliver game-changing reductions in fuel consumption and operating costs, Boeing has deployed carbonfibre to an unprecedented extent, and applied new thinking to many aspect of the Dreamliner’s design t i d e r c c i P
from aerodynamics and a further 3% from the integration of all the technologies. The seven monolithic carbon laminate fuselage barrels eliminate longitudinal joins across the majority of the aircraft. This is aimed at increasing fatigue life and cutting heavy maintenance intervals in half. The composite primary structure also allowed Boeing to increase the size of the 787’s windows to 48.3cm (19in) with electro-chromatic dimmable glass. Barring slight variations, the composite manufacturing processes are uniform across the programme’s primary structural suppliers: Spirit AeroSystems in the USA, Alenia in Italy, and Kawasaki, Fuji and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Japan. Carbonfibre tape is laid down on a mould or mandrel either by hand or using automatic fibre placement (AFP) machines, cured in a high-temperature autoclave, trimmed, drilled, non-destructively
JON OSTROWER WASHINGTON DC
T
he 787 is Boeing’s grand innovation, nose to tail, wingtip to wingtip. The aircraft’s 50%-by-weight composite design is at the heart of the airframer’s leap in the use of new materials and systems. With its higher strength-to-weight ratio, car bonfibre is intended to replace the traditional architecture of Boeing’s metallic wings and fuselage on its earlier narrow- and widebody commercial aircraft. Of Boeing’s three big leaps on the 787, materials and systems represent the biggest gamechangers for customers, requiring adaptation by the airlines to put the technologies into use, towards the goal of reducing fuel burn by 20% and operating cost by 10%. Breaking down the 20% fuel-burn improvement, Boeing says 8% comes from the engines, 3% from the systems, 3% from the majority composite airframe, 3%
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inspected, painted with primer and then flowed to the assembly or build-up process. But there are of course significant differences in size and purpose between the parts, which range from floor beams all the way up to 19.4ft-wide (5.91m-wide) fuselage barrels and the 98ft-long wing skins. For lightning strike protection, Boeing has embedded a thin wire mesh into the carbon laminate, which together with an aircraft-wide current-return network provides a return ground plane for all the equipment installed in the aircraft. The 787’s wings – manufactured and assem bled by Mitsubishi in Nagoya, Japan; and also carbon laminate – are assembled with singlepiece top and bottom wing skins, and joined with aluminium ribs and composite spars. The Alenia-built horizontal and Boeing-built vertical stabilisers also employ carbon laminate for primary structure, replicating the 777’s composite empennage.
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Carbon sandwich has a more limited implementation on the Goodrich laminar flow nacelles, and on the aircraft’s elevators, rudder, spoilers, raked winglets and inboard movable leading edge. Fibreglass sandwich accounts for the forward and leading and trailing edge structure of the horizontal and vertical stabilisers, along with the wing forward and trailing leading edges and the wing-to-body fairing. MORE-ELECTRIC ARCHITECTURE
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Final assembly and systems integration (top) Broetje machines for drilling (above)
The biggest change under the 787 carbonfibre skin can be found in its more-electric bleedless systems architecture, aimed at reducing engine fuel burn by allowing the power extraction to work on demand, managing the pull of electricity as it is needed from the engine’s generators rather than bleeding air from the engine when it is more efficiently used for propulsion. As one of the programme’s earliest systems suppliers, Hamilton Sundstrand was first selected in 2004 to supply nine systems for the 787, including the aircraft’s environmental control system (ECS), auxiliary power system (APS), electrical power generating and start system (EPGSS) and ram air turbine (RAT). Without a pneumatic system seen on all other Boeing aircraft, the airframer developed with Hamilton Sundstrand an electric enginestart system anchored by two 250kVA variable frequency starter generators on each General Electric GEnx-1B or Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engine and two 225kVA generators in the auxiliary power unit. The six generators provide up to 1.45MW of electricity fed through nine power panels that manage and distribute electrical power to a myriad of aircraft systems. The hydraulic system’s biggest difference from previous Boeing aircraft is the power source for its three independent systems, all electrically driven, supporting the primary flight control actuators, landing gear, nose gear steering, thrust reversers and leading and trailing edge flaps with 5,000 pounds per square inch (psi) pumps. Both left and right systems feature engine-mounted and driven pumps along with an electric motor pump, while the centre system has twin large electric motor pumps – one that runs throughout a flight and the other employed during takeoff gg
IN MY VIEW
“We just booted it. Our only defence is that every industry [does that]. We paid billions upon billions in the learning process” JIM MCNERNEY
Spirit AeroSystems: a primary structures supplier (left)
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Chief executive, Boeing
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STRUCTURE & SYSTEMS
and landing. Rather than use the hydraulic actuation on the main landing gear brakes, Boeing would use an electrically driven car bon brake-by-wire system supplied by either Goodrich or Messier-Bugatti, while the GKNsupplied wing anti-ice system also follows Boeing’s more-electric architecture, eliminating the use of hot bleed air to melt any forming ice on the wings. A heater mat technology is used instead. The more-electric systems provide cabin pressurisation, run by electrically driven comgg
pressors on the ECS that provide a cabin altitude of 6,000ft (1,830m), compared with 8,000ft on previous Boeing aircraft. The 787 is the world’s first commercial jetliner to employ a required nitrogen generation system from its first day of operation, a certification requirement developed in the wake of the 1996 TWA Flight 800 disaster, which was caused by an explosion of fuel vapour in an unused fuel tank. Aerodynamically, the Honeywell-supplied flight control system enables the 787’s three-
axis fly-by-wire, using the aircraft’s ailerons for manoeuvre load alleviation and elevator for active gust load alleviation. The 787’s wing also adapts to changing gross weight conditions, optimising the camber of the wing through the trailing edge variable camber (TEVC) system moving it up or down by 1.5° from its neutral position. Fourteen drooped spoilers eliminate the need for fore flaps, bridging the gap between the wing and extended flaps, while also serving as traditional spoilers dumping lift on landing and providing slowing drag while in flight. Flaperons provide additional flight control functionality, drooped when acting with the high lift system; roll control as ailerons; and upward deflection as spoilers on landing. To further educe external drag further, the airframer has incorporated a passive laminar flow system on the engine nacelles by maintaining a smooth boundary layer of air, and provided each pair of nacelles a white colour by default for customers to apply a universal paint thickness designed to preserve the flow over a larger area. COMMON CORE BRAIN
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Final systems checks at Spirit in Wichita, before delivery to Boeing
The heart of the 787’s integrated systems architecture is founded on the GE Aviation Common Core System (CCS) aimed at boosting reliability and reducing aircraft weight and cost by implementing a common processing and data network to drive the aircraft’s systems. The system is tied together through Rockwell Collins’ fibre-optic ethernet-based avionics full duplex (AFDX) command data network (CDN) allowing communication between modules with the AIRNC 664 standard. The modular nature of the CCS – which is made up of twin Common Computing Resources that are housed in the forward electronics equipment (EE) bay below the flight deck and ahead of the forward cargo compartment – allows the system to be both scaled and upgraded without necessity for a comprehensive redesign to make each change, hence allowing the aircraft to gain new capabilities without major modifications. O For more about ANA read the Airline Business interview with chief executive Shinichiro Ito at
flightglobal.com/ito
IN MY VIEW
“We had not done a development programme in 15 years, since the 777. We paid a very heavy price for that” JIM ALBAUGH
Chief executive, Boeing Commercial Airplanes
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PRODUCTION
IN MY VIEW
“Some [suppliers] are very good at doing the whole job. Some of them proved incapable... in which case we had to take back design work” MIKE BAIR
787 programme manager, Boeing
information sharing ubiquitous, increase use of monolithic assemblies and shift fabrication responsibility to suppliers which would share pre-certificated scalable technologies. The ACPS acronym was dubbed “faster better-cheaper” by suppliers vying to earn a spot as sole-source suppliers on the next new Boeing aircraft. If the airframer was to continue producing new commercial aircraft, it would have to find a way to shift and reduce the costs associated with clean-sheet designs. Following creation of the ACPS, Boeing explored a series of concepts, contemplating its next big move after the 777 and Next Generation 737 – and pondering another variant in the 747 family, while building the 717 inherited through the McDonnell Douglas merger, along with the 737-900, 757-300, 747-400ER and 767-400ER derivatives, and developing the 777-300ER and -200LR. By February 2000, ACPS has been merged with the New Small Airplane (NSA) study under the revamped Product Strategy and Development (PS&D) organisation, which spawned “Project 20XX”. With assistance from its Phantom Works division, this mutated into three code-named projects: Glacier, Redwood and Yellowstone. Each represented a different middle-of-the-market configuration. Glacier would become the high-speed Sonic Cruiser, Redwood a blended wing body, and Yellowstone a 777-style configuration. Although supply-chain difficulties arose from Boeing’s Shelving a 747X effort, Condit would reveal existence in January 2001, announcconstantly adapting production process, a strategy born 15 20XX’s ing Boeing’s intention to focus on a 757/767years ago remains at the 787 programme’s heart sized replacement, days after the Sonic Cruiser’s existence – as revealed by a patent – was reported by The Wall Street Journal . Boeing made the Sonic Cruiser’s debut official in JON OSTROWER WASHINGTON DC At its helm was master engineer Walt Gil- March, with Gillette as programme manager. lette, responsible for the transition from the The Sonic Cruiser met a cool response from n 15 December 1996, Boeing and 737-200’s cigar engine to the high-bypass the market in 2001, and after the 11 SeptemMcDonnell Douglas disclosed plans CFM56 fans on the 737-300 and the systems ber attacks, airlines – facing economic slowto merge into the world’s largest aer- architecture on the clean-sheet 777. His man- down and the possibility of further attacks ospace company. The following date – and that of 110 other engineers from using commercial aircraft – shifted their focus month, Boeing pulled the plug on develop- Boeing and 50 suppliers – was to slash the from speed to survival. Boeing’s Sonic Cruiser ment of the 747-500/600 and then-chief exec- time and cost of bringing a new commercial technology development team would become utive Phil Condit commissioned a new team aircraft to market by half. Boeing leadership the primary first-tier 787 suppliers. to transform how the airframer designed, concluded that the up-front development In January 2002, Boeing named Japan-based manufactured and marketed aircraft. The Air- cost, believed to be double the $7 billion first suppliers Mitsubishi, Kawasaki and Fuji craft Creation Process Strategy (ACPS) laid budgeted, did not make returns quickly Heavy Industries as 787 technology partners. conceptual groundwork for the 787’s global enough. Gillette and his team looked to stand- In February, Italy’s Alenia Aeronautica and production system and business model. ardise processes and platforms, make digital Vought Aircraft Industries came aboard and, g n i e o B
THEORY OF EVOLUTION O
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Boeing took control of centre-fuselage integration (far left}
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in April, Boeing de Havilland of Australia and Boeing’s commercial unit in Wichita, Kansas. As commitment to the Sonic Cruiser began to wane, Boeing introduced a conceptual “reference” aircraft against which the M0.98 jetliner was measured. The “Super Efficient” concept envisioned an aircraft that would fly 15-20% faster than then-contemporary aircraft while reducing fuel burn by 20%. Sonic Cruiser met its unofficial demise on 26 October 2002, when Boeing assembled in Seattle representatives from blue-chip customers from around the world, all of whom voted for efficiency over speed. By December, Sonic Cruiser was dead, but the team Boeing assembled to build it remained together. Project Yellowstone became the majoritycomposite 7E7 family, led by Mike Bair. Boeing’s desire for an aircraft that pushed performance “higher, faster and further” had lost to a “faster, better and cheaper” model in the eyes of customers, which deemed the business case incompatible with the modern operating environment of declining yields and price competition. Boeing’s mid-size long-range jetliner took on a conventional configuration to bolster the bottom lines of its customers, but the supply chain was designed to retain the “higher, faster, further” DNA. OFFICIAL GO-AHEAD
When the 7E7 was given its official go-ahead on 16 December 2003, granting authority to offer the new twin to airlines, Boeing revealed its selection of its Everett, Washington, facility as for final assembly, continuing the tradition of building legacy widebodies at Paine Field – and beating out competition from Kinston, North Carolina; Charleston, South Carolina; and Mobile, Alabama. The 7E7 – which would become the 787 when Boeing received a 60-aircraft order from Chinese airlines in January 2005 – was to have a significantly different line from the 777’s. Arriving fully completed from suppliers, the sections – stuffed with all the necessary systems – would be joined on a pulse line. Boeing imagined the factory building 10 787s a month by the end of 2009. The 7E7 programme’s supply chain foundations drew conceptual inspiration from a business model employed by McDonnell Douglas on the MD-95, and later by Boeing on the gg fightglobal.com/787
A raked wingtip for a China Southern 787 is worked on in South Korea (near left)
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TRANSPORT JON OSTROWER WASHINGTON DC
DREAMLIFTERS BRING IT ALL TOGETHER To meet its goal o building ten 787s per month transporting its in-process inventory seamlessly between partner sites, Boeing had to conceive a way o moving its monolithic structures between its global suppliers and nal assembly. The company’s answer: a small feet o well-worn 747400s, born in Everett as passenger aircrat, now retired and radically converted to cargo aircrat. The Large Cargo Freighter (LCF), or Dreamliter as they have come to be known, have become an iconic part o the 787’s global production system. Concerned about meeting the high production rate required or the 787, the Dreamliter avoided the use o a feet o ships transiting across oceans packed with 787s heading or nal assembly or integration. Similar to the feet o Airbus A300-600ST Super Transporter “Beluga” aircrat used to transport structural sections or A320 and A330/340 amily
aircrat, the bespoke delivery system or each 787 accommodates the wings, horizontal stabilisers and uselage components, exclusively or the Dreamliner programme. O the our Pratt & Whitney PW4056-powered 747s, two o the aircrat were previously operated by China Airlines and one by Malaysia Airlines and Air China. The aircrat were fown to Taoyuan International Airport in Taiwan where Evergreen Aviation Technologies (EGAT) replaced the passenger cabin with a bulbous unpressurised cargo hold, punctuated on one end by a massive orward pressure bulkhead and a hinged swing tail at the rear, which has raised the vertical stabiliser by 1.5m (5t). “This is one o the most unusual modications Boeing has ever done,” said then-787 vice president o airplane development and production, Scott Strode. The rst Dreamliter made its maiden fight on 9
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The Large Cargo Freighters are adapted from old 747-400s
September 2006, beginning a 250h fight test campaign to certiy the heavily-modied LCF’s or use, evaluating its handling characteristics and clearing it o any excessive vibration or futter. During the US Federal Aviation Administration certication trials, which also included 500h o ground testing, Boeing was orced to drop the winglets rom the nal design ater it discovered futter issues during fight testing. The rst two Dreamliters, painted in a now iconic white and blue company livery,entered service in 2007, moving 787 parts between suppliers. The aircrat marked its rst service in January 2007 between Grottaglie, Italy, Nagoya, Japan and North Charleston, USA, or parts or integration o the rst Dreamliner’s centre uselage at the Global Aeronautica acility. Initially operated by Boeing, Evergreen International Airlines, which has no relation to EGAT, operated the feet rom August 2007 until September 2010 beore being transerred to Atlas Air as part o a compensation package or delays to its 747-8F order. In operation, the US Federal Aviation Administration limits the crew to use o the upper deck o the aircrat with its two pilots and a loadmaster, though Boeing hopes to gain supernumerary usage o lower deck orward cabin, seating up to 16 personnel, to double as a shuttle connecting supplier partners in the US, Europe and Asia. O
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PRODUCTION
IN MY VIEW
Nosing ahead: the 787 had racked up 890 orders by May 2008 (below)
“We had some good debates with the FAA about how do you certify a brand new plastic airplane... That had never been done before” JIM ALBAUGH
Chief executive, Boeing Commercial Airplanes
717. Known as return on net assets or RONA, the ratio compares bottom-line profit with the overall scope of the programme’s assets, to identify how much money is being made in terms of the work required. Boeing’s chief at the time of the 7E7 launch in late 2003 was RONA advocate Harry Stonecipher. Boeing sought to reduce its industrial footprint, retaining only manufacturing of the 7E7’s vertical stabiliser in Frederickson, Washington, forward fuselage in Kansas, wing-to-body fairing in Winnipeg, Canada, and movable trailing edges at Boeing Aerostructures Australia. This amount to a 35% value share. And Boeing would conduct final assembly, as a large-scale systems integrator. “Clearly, we were way too focused on not having assets on the [787], and having the right level of assets is the right way to run a business,” reflected Bair in a 2011 interview. Boeing continued to shrink its footprint, in the process creating the world’s largest aerostructures manufacturer in February 2005. Boeing’s Wichita, Kansas, commercial division – already responsible for the same work on the 777, 747, 767 and 737 programmes – would develop the forward fuselage Section 41. But Boeing divested its Wichita and Tulsa, Oklahoma, operations to Onex and Goldman gg
Sachs, netting $1.2 billion. Vought Aircraft Industries, responsible for fabricating the 787’s aft fuselage Sections 47 and 48, established a 35,400m2 (381,000ft2) facility at Charleston International Airport in North Charleston, South Carolina. And Alenia Aeronautica – responsible for making the Section 46 barrel and Section 44 bonnet fuselage structures, which covered the centre wing box, in Grottaglie, Italy – partnered with Vought to create Global Aeronautica. With a 31,000m2 facility, the 50:50 joint venture in Charleston would be responsible for structural integration and systems installation of the centre fuselage, made up of Kawasaki Heavy Industries’ Section 43, and Fuji Heavy Industries’ 45/11 centre wing box and main gear wheel well, as well as Alenia’s Sections 44 and 46. Alenia would supply the horizontal stabiliser from Foggia, Italy. Boeing’s Japanese partners – major suppliers to the 767 and 777, representing 15% and 20% of the aircraft by value, respectively – would account for the single-largest workshare of any one country: 35%. Fabrication and assembly of the wing boxes were assigned to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, in Boeing’s first outsourcing of wings. With the Wichita divestment, Boeing was left with a 23% share of 787 aerostructures; only the vertical stabiliser would be built in the Pacific Northwest. TRIALS AND TRANSFORMATIONS
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There followed a three-year, multibillion-dollar trial by fire. A sputtering supply chain delivered a partially complete first aircraft to final assembly in spring 2007. Boeing’s woes, driven by widespread design changes, spread back to its suppliers and their suppliers. Without adequate visibility, oversight and design authority, Boeing would wrestle with incomplete tasks and workmanship issues. In March 2008, Boeing paid $55 million for Vought’s half of Global Aeronautica. Teetering on the financial brink, Vought was provided with much-needed cash to stay afloat. And Boeing gained much-needed oversight into the operations of 787’s centre fuselage integration facility. South Carolina would later become home to Boeing’s first non-legacy final assembly line outside the Pacific Northwest. In December 2008, Boeing launched its round-the-clock Production Integration Cent-
er to tie together the airframe’s global network of suppliers through seamless digital communications, monitoring everything from natural disasters to shipset progress. Boeing would acquire Vought’s aft fuselage fabrication facility in July 2009 for more than $1 billion and complete its takeover of Charleston in December by buying Alenia’s remaining 50% of Global Aeronautica. The $1.2 billion the airframer had earned from its Wichita divestment had been almost entirely spent on creating a South Carolina division. And Boeing had returned its share to 35% by value. In the wake of the September-October 2008 International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers union strike, Boeing selected Charleston for its 92,900ft2 second 787 final assembly line. “The overriding factor was not the business climate, and it was not the wages we’re paying people today. It was that we can’t afford to have a work stoppage every three years,” Boeing Commercial Airplanes chief executive Jim Albaugh would tell The Seattle Times shortly after the selection. The airframer established a secondary vertical stabiliser fabrication line exclusively for Dreamliners assembled in South Carolina. The 3,250m2 line is expected to deliver its first tail to the North Charleston line for the third 787 to be assembled there. The Charleston line, operational since mid-2011, will build three of 10 787s per month by the end of 2013, with the balance shared by the primary Everett line and a companion surge line. 787-9 CHANGES
For its larger 250–290 seat 787-9 and its late 2013 entry into service, Boeing has continued to redraw supply chain lines, bringing around 70% of engineering work back within its own four walls. Frustration with issues at Alenia, coupled with fundamental architecture changes in the 787-9’s horizontal stabiliser, prompted Boeing to take back both design and early fabrication work in 2011. Further, Boeing will initially build the -9’s horizontal sta biliser at its Seattle Developmental Center and move the work to a yet-to-be defined vendor operating alongside Alenia, which retains responsibility for the -8’s stabiliser. O Track twists and turns in Boeing’s commercial programmes by visiting Jon Ostrower’s blog at flightglobal.com/flightblogger
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TIMELINE
TURBULENT TIMES Deadlines were moved and missed, orders rocketed and receded, reputations built and burned. Relive the twists and turns of a long, chaotic development programme
2003 JAN Boeing proceeds with 7E7 development. Target: oers to airlines in early 2004, service entry in 2008
APR-MAY Orders pass 500
JUN Boeing dubs 7E7 the Dreamliner, and reveals plan to abricate composite uselage and wing
JUL Boeing unveils first 787 on 8 July – 07/08/07 in US date ormat. But aircrat contains limited structure and no systems
NOV Boeing unveils 7E7 structures team
AUG Boeing amends delivery schedule o early aircrat and test airrames
2007
DEC Board grants commercial unit authority to market 7E7
SEP First flight slips rom late August 2007 to mid-November/mid-December
2004 APR Boeing names Rolls-Royce and General Electric as engine suppliers. 7E7 launched with 50-aircraft order from ANA
OCT First flight moves to end o first quarter 2008; frst delivery pushed rom May to November/December. Pat Shanahan replaces Mike Bair as programme head
DEC Scott Carson takes charge o commercial sales. Order total stands at 52
2005 JAN 7E7 ofcially becomes the 787 with order or 60 aircraft from five Chinese airlines, each promised first delivery by 2008 Beijing Olympics SEP Confguration frmed
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2006 MAY Air New Zealand becomes 787-9 launch customer JUN Jim McNerney elected Boeing chie just as the airramer starts major assembly o frst 787 SEP Scott Carson rises to commercial top job ater racking up 330 787 sales
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2011 JAN First delivery: third quarter 2011. Boeing predicts 25-40 deliveries o 787s/747-8s in 2011 MAR Albaugh acknowledges 787 will not meet 8,000nm performance specification, but argues aircrat can meet customer guarantees MAY First Trent 1000 Package B engine – to bring SFC within 1% o spec – flies. Fatigue test airrame passes 10,000 cycles JUN Ninth 787 begins ETOPS and F&R testing JUL Test aircraft wearing ANA colours arrives in Tokyo or service-ready operational validation. Delivery target revised to 25-30 787s/747-8s by year-end
2008 JAN First flight goes back to end o second quarter 2008. First delivery expected in early 2009
AUG Boeing gains type and production certifications rom FAA and EASA
MAR Boeing moves to acquire Vought’s 50% share in supplier Global Aeronautica APR First flight slides to fourth quarter 2008, first delivery to third quarter 2009, 787-9 to 2012. Future o short-range 787-3 uncertain
2010 JAN 787 achieves initial airworthiness
JUN First power-on test
MAR Boeing imposes first of five holds on structural deliveries, with suppliers to catch up over ve weeks
SEP-OCT Machinists’ strike brings 57-day work stoppage at Boeing’s assembly plants in Puget Sound DEC Boeing admits need to replace 3% of all 787 fasteners, slides first flight to June 2009, delivery to first quarter 2010. Scott Fancher takes charge o programme
APR Boeing granted FAA type inspection authorisation JUN First GEnx-1B-powered 787 completes first flight. Boeing discloses workmanship issues with Alenia horizontal stabiliser JUL Larger 787-9 gains rm conguration. 787 makes international debut AUG Ater uncontained failure o a Trent 1000 test engine, first delivery slides to mid-first quarter 2011
2009
NOV In-fight electrical fire on ZA002 brings halt to test flying
JAN Air New Zealand reveals another 12-month slide in rst 787-9 delivery APR Ater changes and rework to test feet, aircrat no longer assigned to customers. Chinese airlines shit to later models, giving ANA access to earlier deliveries
DEC Following update to the power distribution sotware, test fying resumes
JUN At Paris air show, Boeing leadership rearms end-o-month target or first flight, but ocially postpones it on 23 June ater analysis o side-of-body join JUL Boeing says it will buy Vought’s 787 operations in North Charleston, South Carolina. First taxi tests AUG First flight: end of 2009. First delivery: fourth quarter 2010. Flight-test feet reshufe brings $2.5 billion charge. Jim Albaugh replaces retiring Scott Carson OCT Boeing selects North Charleston or second 787 nal assembly line NOV Boeing completes side-of-body reinforcement on rst test aircrat DEC First flight kicks o what is intended to be 8-9-month certication campaign. Boeing to buy remaining 50% o Global Aeronautica rom Alenia
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INTERIORS
product to our customers for the 787. We did that last year, even the year before. So we’re a little bit ahead of the curve,” he said. Gundermann said what that means for Astronics “is that when Boeing starts ramping up 787 and all of the suppliers around the world start talking about the 787 impact on their financials, we’re going to be strangely silent. That doesn’t mean we’re off the programme, it just means that we’ve got to wait for that inventory that we’ve already shipped to get through the process.” Many IFE systems have sat on shelves for years waiting to be installed on the 787. Since the lifecycle of IFE in terms of equipment and ideas is 18 months, a three-year wait equates to nearly two turns, making the difference between kit ordered in 2006-2007 for delivery in 2008 appear quite stark when compared with the lighter, slimmer platforms with capacitive touchscreens available today. For example, All Nippon Airways recently unveiled the interiors of the 787s that will operate on its regional and domestic routes. While the seatback IFE in economy class would have been considered state-of-the-art when the carrier placed its order, it now appears dated on ANA’s new 787s. Economy-class seats have also reduced in size during the past five years, with today’s models vastly slimmer – and subsequently more fuel efficient. Boeing, however, is reticent to make significant changes to 787 cabin technology and interiors for fear of further delaying deliveries, multiple sources say.
THALES CONNECTIVITY SYSTEMS AVAILABLE ON THE 787
First connectivity system available on the 787 Dedicated SATCOM 2 channels of swiftBroadband IFE connect
Connectivity through the seatback screen WiFi connectivity Through passenger’s personal devices GSM/GPRS/SMS
Live news, web browsing, e-mail, SMS, Cellular phone calls and data services
SOURCE: Boeing
GETTING CONNECTED Airlines want to offer next-generation in-flight entertainment on the new Dreamliner but a tight delivery schedule means most will have to wait
UNDER PRESSURE
travellers and aviation buffs. However, it is not without irony that the 787s currently rollirlines want the ability to offer next- ing off the production line are less advanced generation in-flight entertainment in terms of cabin connectivity than many Mc(IFE), connectivity and seats on Boe- Donnell Douglas MD-80s flying in US skies, ing’s long-delayed 787 Dreamliner feature older generation IFE systems, and lack but a tight delivery schedule means most will the latest innovations in integrated IFE/slimhave to wait for major changes to original or- line seats. Some of the disparity can be ders. The attributes that make the interior of blamed on delays to the 787 programme. Peter the Boeing 787 twinjet so distinctive – a Gundermann, president and chief executive sweeping entryway, super-sized luggage bins, officer of in-seat power specialist Astronics, extra-large dimmable windows and a unique put the impact of the 787 delay on cabin syslighting scheme with various ‘mood’ settings tem suppliers into perspective in late 2010. – have justifiably captured the imagination of “We’ve already shipped 30 shipsets or so of MARY KIRBY
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Asked to say when it will install new connected IFE and communications (IFEC) systems on the 787, Boeing said it could not comment because “our experts are focused on first delivery right now. Additionally, we don’t have any updates to share on this topic at this time.” United-Continental is understood to be among carriers pushing Boeing to fit new IFE – specifically Panasonic Avionics’ 9in smart monitor known as the Eco 9i – to B/E Aerospace-manufactured economy-class seats on its 787s. However initial deliveries, expected in early 2012, will not feature the product. “It’s a no. Our first 787 won’t have the smart monitors,” United-Continental confirms. A
The 787’s interior is distinguished by a sweeping entr yway, super-sized luggage bins, extra-large dimmable windows and a unique lighting scheme with various ‘mood’ settings
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separate source with knowledge of the discussions between Boeing and United-Continental asserts that while “the first aircraft won’t have Eco, the seatback integration will look much better” than that being offered on ANA’s initial 787s. Tom Plant, B/E Aerospace vice-president and general manager seating products, says the seat-maker’s ability to change plans to accommodate the IFE system for UnitedContinental “has been pretty crisp and we’ve been pretty fast in reacting to that”. He adds: “We make deliveries on one of the new IFE systems in the beginning of next year on the 787. I can’t tell you what customer it is with.” LINEFIT OPTION
Boeing is also yet to offer IFE as a linefit option for the 787. The airframer was badly burned by its own failed foray into airborne internet – Connexion by Boeing (CBB) – which was closed at the end of 2006. It had previously intended to offer CBB, a Ku-band satellite-supported solution, on the 787. A source said that when CBB announced it was going out of business, one of the first things the 787 team did – knowing it had a weight problem already – was to take out all of the provisions [for connectivity]. “Architecturally it’s still there but the actual physical provisions on the airplane – which entails strengthening the area where the [Ku] antenna radome was going to go on the aircraft – was about 30lb [13.6kg], so they pulled it off. There was a rack as well, and that’s bigger than that,” the source adds. However, Boeing is showing interest in participating in post-delivery modifications of connectivity to the 787. Thales, which has been contracted to provide an Inmarsat SwiftBroadband-supported IFEC system for Qatar’s 787s, originally hoped connectivity would be linefit to the twinjets. In a recent Flight International interview, Thales IFE chief Alan Pellegrini revealed the latest plan is for Boeing to provide some provisioning on a linefit basis, then Thales will work with Boeing’s Commercial Aviation Services division for post-delivery mods as soon as the aircraft delivers. “The post-delivery mod includes installation of a second satellite communication radio and antenna, [and] the installation of our on board wi-fi and mobile telephone system to
support cell phone access,” says Pellegrini. “From a linefit perspective, the fact that we’ll be doing this with a post-delivery mod means that all the engineering work will have been done, so even if an airline cannot get the system linefit from Boeing, we’ll already have an engineering package and arrangement for post-delivery. It’s less than ideal from an airline perspective but better than the alternative of not having an option, so this will be good precedent-setting and groundbreaking in getting the system installed on the aircraft.” The first retrofits are expected in early 2012 after first deliveries to Qatar. Thales’ next generation Android-based IFEC system, of which Qatar is a customer for the 787, is expected to make its debut in 2013 but the system, known as AVANT, is not yet offerable on the 787. THE COMPETITION
“I suspect Boeing will want to be more assertive or aggressive with new IFEC technology once they get their feet on the ground with deliveries of the 787, recognising that the product will be going into new aircraft but also via retrofit and on other Airbus platforms, including the A380 in 2012, so I think there will be market pressure to get the latest generation systems on Boeing aircraft,” says Pellegrini. That pressure could mount if Airbus suc-
ceeds in delivering the new A350 as planned in 2013. “When we specified the A350 cabin with the milestones we have on the programme, ie starting two to three years later than our competitor, in working with suppliers we specifically set out to capture technology of the latest standard,” says Airbus vicepresident marketing, Bob Lange. “That window has given us some opportunities which we tried to capture. For us, we had an opportunity to take advantage of the rapid pace of technology in IFE and connectivity in particular, seats to a slightly lesser extent, so yes [connectivity] is part of our standard A350 offer,” he adds. Once 787 deliveries start flowing smoothly, however, interiors and IFE in the cabin are expected to catch up, Panasonic Avionics chief executive Paul Margis says. “I think right now it is a bit stalled because they [Boeing] are so focused on making sure the airplane itself is flying [in revenue service]. The connectivity is a tough one because of the antennas and all of that, but the interior will be the fasted thing moving because it’s not that hard and airlines are pushing to be competitive,” he adds. O Mary Kirby blogs on in-fight entertainment, communication and connectivity issues at flightglobal.com/runwaygirl
SEAT BACK IFE COMPARISON
Current ANA seatback IFE
Integrated IFE/seats with Panasonic eco 9i monitor
IN MY VIEW
“If airlines want to switch to the newer IFE systems... we’re happy to jump on those opportunities” TOM PLANT
Vice-president and general manager seating products, B/E Aerospace
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MAINTENANCE
KEEPING DOWN THE DOWNTIME As the all-new airliner enters service, MRO providers are assessing the challenges of parts supply and carrying out repairs to the 787’s composite structure
MICHAEL GUBISCH LONDON
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aintenance providers expect significant change with the service entry of the Boeing 787. While there is less concern about the technological demands to repair the carbonfibre airframe structure, many anticipate a shift towards more intensive line maintenance, large capital requirements to establish new MRO capabilities and novel internal processes, such as keeping the aircraft’s complex systems software up to date. Air Berlin is a 787 customer which, after supporting its existing fleet of 737, Airbus A320-family and A330 aircraft in-house, is evaluating whether to outsource airframe and component maintenance for the new twinjet and subscribe to Boeing’s GoldCare MRO programme. The German carrier has ordered 18 787s, scheduled for delivery from 2014. Whether this fleet will warrant the investment to build the required capabilities will partly depend on how much additional thirdparty custom can be attracted to ensure sufficient continuous workflow, says Tobias Hundhausen, vice-president business development. He says that Air Berlin Technik’s composite repair capabilities are limited and focus mainly on items that can be removed from the air-
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craft and amended in the workshop. In future, he expects more large-scale repairs in the hangar and many more composite repairs. While he is confident that small-scale fuselage defects can be fixed with pre-fabricated repair kits, he is unsure how to deal with large-scale damage. “This is an area where we still have information deficits, where we depend on the manufacturer’s expertise and which we need to clarify in the coming months,” says Hundhausen.
His concern is about the logistics and potentially longer time requirements to bring a stricken aircraft back into service. Expecting that large panels will have to be ordered from Boeing, he questions whether material will be as readily available as has been the case with metal aircraft. Boeing responds that airlines and MRO companies will be able to stock composite panels. However, as some materials need to be temperature-controlled and have limited shelf lives, their supply will be more complicated to manage than for sheet metal. Whether operators and maintenance providers with exposure only to small fleets will invest in repair material, which might have to be discarded unused, remains to be seen. As an alternative to bonded composite repairs, operators will have the option to undertake bolted repairs with titanium parts. Similar to how metallic airframe structures are fixed using sheet metal, it is possible to fasten titanium patches across a damaged fuselage area as a permanent repair. If a composite solution is preferred, it is possible to remove the metallic fix later on and replace it with a wet composite layup, says Ron Murray, Boeing’s 787 chief mechanic. “We really don’t envision major-type re-
LOGISTICAL CONCERNS
This view is echoed by Christian Weckesser, project manager for 787 aircraft engineering at Lufthansa Technik (LHT) in Frankfurt. “With repairs beyond a certain size, we fear that we will quickly get to a point where the SRM [structural repair manual] will not be sufficient and that we then have to talk to Boeing and evaluate the damage together with them,” he says. “And that will cost time.” Weckesser emphasises that he sees no fundamental technical difficulties in repairing composites, given that synthetic fibres and resins have been moulded into primary airframe structures during past decades, be it floor beams on the Boeing 777, vertical and later horizontal stabilisers on Airbus aircraft or complete fuselages for military and business aircraft.
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IN MY VIEW
“We believe that if we face a non-standard problem, the delays and downtimes may be significantly longer than on current aircraft” DIRK WINKLER
Senior sales executive, Lufthansa Technik
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pairs other than the usual damages we see on aluminium aircraft today, which can be taken care of with simple materials [prefabricated kits], which the airlines can either have or be readily available from Boeing,” he adds. A major bugbear in supporting the 787 will be to keep systems software up to date, says LHT. Much of the twinjet’s equipment and functions are controlled via software. These programs are not installed in self-contained components but run as part of a common core system (CCS), which works as an aircraft-wide computer network. SOFTWARE MAINTENANCE
Maintaining this system, particularly with regard to later updates and modifications, will be a significant challenge. Weckesser says LHT has benefitted from its experiences with the Airbus A380, which also features a network server IT structure, but he adds that this expertise needs to be further intensified because of more software-controlled components and functions on the 787. While the physical replacement of a component can usually be accomplished quickly, it might not be as easy to install the respective software and ensure full operability, says Dirk Winkler, LHT senior sales executive. “The timescales, which the manufacturers suggest
Air Berlin is unsure where its 787s will be supported (top) (L-R) Part support will be the first step for AFI KLM E&M
Secret service: ZA002 makes a late-night visit to Amsterdam in 2010
to upload new software, do not always match the reality,” he says. Tracking the software updates and configuration status of individual aircraft across a diverse fleet will be a central task in supporting the 787. This will be further complicated if, for example, an airline contracts separate engineering, line and base maintenance providers which employ individual MRO processes and IT systems. Software can be uploaded to the 787’s computer network by cable connection from a laptop or via wireless link in the airport. Air Berlin wants to stream software wirelessly but to reduce risk of complications it will initially transfer software from a laptop, says Hundhausen. He adds that the choice of connection is only to upload the software on the aircraft’s network but the installation will always need to be carried out by an onboard engineer. For Air France Industries (AFI) KLM Engineering & Maintenance, a main challenge in servicing the 787 is the high price of components. The Franco-Dutch company wants to offer operators full-support component MRO packages with access to spare-part pools. The investment to set up the inventory, however, might necessitate co-operation with external partners, says to Marc Roubaud, senior vicepresident business development. “We are wondering if we can find some synergies with partners in order to finance the spares needed to provide a good component support.” AFI formed Spairliners with LHT as an A380 component-support venture. The spareprice issue for the double-decker aircraft was exacerbated by its comparatively small global fleet and limited number of operators. Nevertheless, AFI KLM E&M calculated it needs to have at least 100 787s under contract to achieve savings through scale effects.
The company wants to provide MRO support for the entire aircraft in the long-term, but because of the service periods until the first scheduled overhaul events for the engines and airframe, it will initially focus on components. Avionics and pneumatics are likely to be among the first product areas for which AFI KLM E&M will develop repair capabilities. Technical training will not begin until next year as the equipment will initially be covered by the manufacturers’ warranties, says Rou baud. So far, the company has mainly allocated engineering staff to manage the maintenance operations of early customers for the new aircraft. WIDER INTERVALS
As with previous aircraft generations, manufacturers aim to reduce the maintenance requirements for their new models. Thanks to the carbon-fibre construction, Boeing has been able to double the period until the first airframe overhaul typically from five to six years for metallic aircraft to 12 years on the 787, significantly reducing the need for conventional base-maintenance work. Nevertheless, none of the MRO providers questioned were concerned about losing custom. Experience with the latest aircraft, such as the A380, has shown their sophisticated equipment will require new support tasks and skills. “Personally, I believe that the efforts for line maintenance will significantly increase and that this will require significantly higher qualifications,” says Winkler. “So we will need more qualified personnel. This cannot be handled by any technician any more,” he adds. O For premium news from the maintenance, repair and overhaul sector visit flightglobal.com/mro
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Boeing tested repairs on airframe demonstrators
High equipment prices are a hurdle
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COCKPIT
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DISPLAY OF INNOVATION The 787’s flightdeck design builds on the 777’s advances 1
NEW WINDSHIELD
For the 787 Boeing has pursued its rst new windshield design since 1979, updating the 757, 767 and 777 six-window fightdeck with a cleansheet our non-opening window design that moves the crew escape door to the fightdeck ceiling. 4
2
FIVE SCREENS
The 787’s ve 15.1in displays, the largest ever on a commercial aircrat, replace six 7in screens on the 777, contributing to reducing the total fightdeck line replaceable units rom 22 on the 777 to 12 on the 787. 3
CONSOLIDATION
The new outboard captain and rst ocer displays consolidate the once standalone primary fight displays (PFD), clocks, and fight inormation, into a single primary fight display oering the PFD, mini-map and auxiliary display. 4
The fight management computer linereplaceable units, maintenance systems, synoptic pages and electronic checklists on the 777 have been consolidated across three multiunction displays (MFD) that allow or up to ve hal-page display areas and a constant Engine Indication and Crew Alerting System.
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FLIGHT MANAGEMENT
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HEAD-UPS
The dual Rockwell Collins HGS-6000 headup displays are standard on the 787, a rst or a Boeing commercial aircrat, enabling lowvisibility take-os and more “eyes out” fying with velocity vectors. 6
MULTIFUNCTIONAL INTEGRATION
The three multiunction displays are interaced through the new multiunction keyboard and the cursor control selector knob, which complements the cursor control device rst introduced on the 777. 7
NAVIGATION
Each navigation display can be presented hal or ull width on each MFD, with views as wide as 1,280nm and down to 0.5nm presenting gates, taxiways and runways on the integrated airport moving map, along with a graphical vertical situation display and terrain display or RNP 0.1 approach capability. 8
ELECTRONIC FLIGHT BAGS
Dual Class 3 electronic fight bags are standard on the 787, allowing a paperless interace presenting video surveillance, perormance data computation, navigation charts, electronic documents and logbooks.
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l a b o l g t h g i l F / r e w o r t s O n o J : y h p a r g o t o h p l l A
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The 787 flightdeck combines greater situational awareness with familiar touches
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ENGINES
IN MY VIEW
“The [delays] were not a huge issue for us from a technical development aspect. We tried to use that time to our advantage” BILL FITZGERALD
Vice-president and general manager of GEnx product line, GE Aviation
PUSHING POWER TO THE LIMIT While Boeing struggled with the programme schedule, the 787’s engine suppliers took opportunities to hone designs for which the rulebook had been abandoned JOHN CROFT WASHINGTON DC
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n early Christmas present arrived at Rolls-Royce on 28 September when All Nippon Airways, launch customer for the Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, took delivery of its first aircraft. Under the wings of the mostly composite 264-seat twinjet were two Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 tur bofans. “My firm belief is that once the aircraft is delivered, the whole field within the industry will change,” says Simon Carlisle, Trent 1000 programme manager for Rolls-Royce. “It’s like being a child waiting for Christmas – it’s magical.” As a result of the protracted 787 development programme, Carlisle, who took his position two weeks after the 787 first flight just before Christmas 2009, is in charge of three Trent 1000 development programmes simultaneously – Package A, the launch engine; Package B, a higher-thrust, more efficient engine that will power all 787-8 aircraft as of next year; and the 74,000lb-thrust (330kNthrust) Package C engine destined for the 7879, a stretched, higher-capacity version of the aircraft slated for entry into service in 2013. Bill Fitzgerald, vice-president and general manager of the GEnx product line for rival engine provider GE, is also essentially running three programmes at once – a Block 4 engine, the first to be certified; the recently approved 20 | Flightglobal | 2011
performance improvement package (PIP) 1 engine that gets to within 1% of Boeing fuel efficiency targets, and a more powerful PIP 2 engine for the 787-9. Simultaneous engine-upgrade efforts were not part of the plan when Boeing launched the 787 in April 2004 with the two engine choices. The turbofans are 15% more fuel efficient than the engines they will replace,
helping to produce an overall fuel-burn reduction of 20% compared with the Boeing 767, the aircraft the 787 replaces. “Nothing about this engine programme is typical,” says Carlisle. Given Boeing’s original plan to get the 787 certificated and flying in time for the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, RollsRoyce developed and worked to a compatible schedule. “From our perspective, we followed our normal design new product-introduction process and in 2007, certified the engine with full expectation it would go into a flight-test programme and be delivered.” However, Boeing only achieved US Federal Aviation Administration certification on 26 August 2011, three years after the initial target. “None of us thought it would be quite this long,” Carlisle says. “If, in 2008, Boeing would have said, ‘It is going to be the end of 2011 [for certification],’ it would have been relatively easy to cope with,” says Carlisle. “We would have relooked at the programme. But to some degree, the way the programme slipped – six months, every six months – all of the supply chain had to maintain readiness to flight test, which took away from improving the product.” He adds: “We took advantage of the delay to get the engine as current as it could possi bly be. We did a ton of flight testing that has
ROLLS-ROYCE 787 ENGINE VARIANTS 1st iteration
2nd iteration
3rd iteration
Package A
Package B
Package C
Thrust (lb-thrust)
64,000
70,000
74,000+
Variant
787-8
787-8
787-9
Upgrades
fan, nozzle, geometry LPT, air system
SFC (vs.spec) EIS
1% above Sep-11
Dec-11
2013
PARTNERS: Kawasaki, Mitsubishi, Industria de Turbo Propulsores, Carlton Forge Works, Hamilton Sundst rand, Goodrich
GE 787 ENGINE VARIANTS 1st iteration
2nd iteration
3rd iteration
Block D
PIP 1
PIP 2
Thrust (lb-thrust)
70,000
75,000
78,000
Variant
787-8
787-8
787-8, 787-9
Upgrades
LPT upgrades
HPT upgrades
SFC (vs.spec)
2.4% above
1% above
0% (target)
EIS
Dec-11
Dec-11
2013
PARTNERS: Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries (IHI), Avio, Volvo Aero, Techspace Aero, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Samsung Techwin
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GEnx is a three-in-one programme (right ) Three spools were the Trent 1000’s starting point (below ) The “atypical” 787 up close (bottom)
given us a lot of confidence in the maturity of the product. It will be the most mature product we have ever put into service.” For GE, the main challenge as the schedule expanded was making sure it stayed “focused on the execution of PIPs while finishing industrialisation of the production engines”, says Fitzgerald. GE has the added pressure (and privilege) of being the sole source supplier of the similar GEnx-2B engines for the 747-8 programme, which has meant a dual ramp-up for the new line of turbofans. “We delivered 44 GEnx-1B and -2B engines in 2010, and we’ll triple that number in 2011,” Fitzgerald said in mid-August. Boeing plans to certificate the GE-powered 787 in the fourth quarter this year, with the first delivery going to Japan Airlines. PRESSURE COMPRESSORS
The more-electric turbofans created for the 787 will be worth the wait. GE’s offering is similar to the high-bypass, composite-fan, two-spool GE90 for the Boeing 777, but takes the next step with a composite fan case – saving 181kg (400lb) per engine – titanium aluminide turbine blades, and a low-emission twin annular pre-swirl (TAPS) combustor. The 6,126kg engine has a 282cm (111in) fan diameter, three-stage low-pressure compressor, a 10-stage high-pressure compressor (HPC), a two-stage high-pressure turbine (HPT) and a six-stage low-pressure turbine (LPT). The overall bypass ratio is 9.6:1. Like the Rolls-Royce offering, the GEnx-1b is a bleedless engine (except for hot bleed air for engine inlet anti-ice protection) that drives twin 250kW starter generators on each engine, pumping 1MW into the 787. The more-electric design required GE to build power storage banks in the ground testing area to dump all that power, and drove changes to the compa g n i e o B
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ny’s 747 flying testbed to handle the excess electricity. Along with production demands, GE has been deploying a worldwide infrastructure to support the engine in service, five years ahead of the first expected overhaul. “When the GE90-115B entered service, we had one [GE] certified maintenance facility,” says Fitzgerald. “We have two certified sites for the GEnx from the start, five times the number of GEnx on-wing support sites, 10 times the number of field support engineers and four times the quick-turn capability.” GE has two certificated overhaul facilities in place. “You have one chance to make a great first impression,” says Fitzgerald. The most significant lesson learned came from trying to squeeze too much performance out of the LPT. “In our design, we took a very aggressive approach on the LPT and reduced the blade count by 30% [compared with the GE90],” says Fitzgerald. The resulting Block 4 engine missed Boeing’s specific fuel consumption (SFC) targets by several percent, an issue that will be addressed with the PIP 1 enhancement soon after EIS and the PIP 2 upgrade in 2012. While GE obtained PIP 1 certification from the FAA in August, thrust was limited to 70,000lb because of an HPT nozzle problem discovered during a ground test at 35% above red-line temperature. Fitzgerald says a modified nozzle that will allow for 75,000lb thrust should be certificated by January or February for the PIP 1 variant. While SFC is currently higher than specification, the engine is meeting targets for exhaust gas temperature (EGT) degradation. Using the GE90 engine as a baseline, engineers had designed the GEnx for a 6-8°C reduction in EGT per 1,000 cycles, down from
10°C per 1,000 cycles for the GE90. Delaying EGT degradation prolongs engine life. Rolls-Royce used its trademark three-spool architecture as a starting point for the Trent 1000. Behind a 284.5cm titanium fan is an eight-stage intermediate pressure compressor (IPC), a six-stage HPC, a single-stage HPT, a single-stage intermediate pressure turbine (IPT) and a six-stage LPT. The overall bypass ratio for the 5,936kg engine is 10:1. Key features include an intermediate shaft electrical power offtake Rolls-Royce says helps reduce fuel consumption with the engine running at idle. Overall, the company says its three-shaft architecture has better deterioration characteristics than GE’s two-shaft design. HARDWARE CHANGES
Package B upgrades include a modified LPT design, high-aspect-ratio blades, relocation of the IPC compressor bleed offtake ports and improved aerodynamics for the fan outlet guide vanes. The Package B engine is also said to incorporate hardware changes put in place after an August 2010 uncontained failure of a Package A engine on the test stand at Derby in the UK. Carlisle says Rolls-Royce has approvals to perform repair and overhaul work on the engines in Derby. He says ANA will have “some capability” for engine testing and light maintenance inhouse at EIS, but adds that, “as the fleet grows, we will look to have more capability through the established maintenance network in partnership with our leading customers”. Although the companies agree on the product improvement roadmap, they are as competitive as ever when it comes to the sales job. As of late August, GE had sold 830 engines, giving it an edge over Rolls-Royce in the number of engines sold, given that 821 aircraft have been purchased, but buyers have not yet declared their engine choice for roughly 250 aircraft. Boeing plans to build 10 aircraft each month by the end of 2013. “I would hope that everyone would cele brate the delivery of the [Dreamliner], says Carlisle. “It will be a fantastic product – even better for those who have selected the Trent engine,” he adds. O Our latest special report on commercial engines focuses on Rolls-Royce’s composites fan blades. Read it at flightglobal.com/commeng
2011 | Flightglobal | 21
NETWORK
mas created delays greater than a worst-case scenario. Boeing expects the Dreamliner’s size, performance and range will combine to produce the perfect airliner for its much-touted “network fragmentation” philosophy. “Fragmentation really gives passengers more of what they want, and that’s more frequent, non-stop service,” says Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice-president marketing Randy Tinseth. “Its size, range and economics allows it take that to an all-new level.” ANA is in pole position for the 787, having received its first aircraft on 26 September – 40 months later than first scheduled. It is due to begin passenger services on 26 October. FLEET-PLAN FRUSTRATION
l a b o l g t h g i l F / r e w o r t s O n o J
STARTING A REVOLUTION The launch customers are finally ready to start earning money with Boeing’s ‘wonder jet’ – and to find out if the 787 has been worth the long wait MAX KINGSLEY-JONES LONDON SIVA GOVINDASAMY SINGAPORE
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n 1968, the Beatles sang, “You say you want a revolution.” Similar words could have been uttered by Boeing’s salesmen when touting their so-called “super-efficient airplane” to potential customers almost a decade ago. Launched as the “7E7” in April 2004 with
an order from All Nippon Airways, the 787 came with a promise of 20% lower fuel burn and greater range than any aircraft in its size category, along with a new level of passenger experience through radical architecture and cabin pressure at a lower altitude than before. However ANA, Japan Airlines and other 787 “early adopters” have had to wait much longer than expected to sample these promised delights, after production and development dra-
After ANA, the sequence and schedule for the next 787 operators is a little blurred, although other customers with early deliveries are known to include Air India, China Southern, Ethiopian Airlines, Hainan Airlines, JAL, Qatar Airways and Royal Air Maroc. ANA, which has 55 787s on order, expects to receive its first batch of 12 through to 31 March 2012, with a further eight before 31 March 2013. The delays forced the airline to acquire additional Boeing 767-300ERs, as an interim lift, and cut back on some network growth. “There was a great deal of frustration as our fleet plan has been forced to change for three years,” says Ito. “But there would have been a bigger impact if we did not do anything at all. We modified our fleet plan.” ANA’s local rival, JAL, was another early Dreamliner customer, signing in December 2004 for 30 aircraft – since increased to 35. JAL was scheduled to receive its first 787 in August 2008 but says that after suffering a total of seven delays, deliveries should now begin at the end of the year. It hopes to have received five by the end of its current fiscal year, which closes on 31 March 2012. JAL says in the wake of the delays it consulted Boeing on various adjustments, including the introduction of alternative aircraft, purchasing conditions and compensation, to minimise impact on its business plans. To bridge the delays, the airline introduced about 10 767s and 777s and postponed the retirement of several older 767s, as well as making
IN MY VIEW
“The 787-8 is an excellent tool to develop new routes that could not be economically sustained before” AKBAR AL BAKER
Chief executive, Qatar Airways
22 | Flightglobal | 2011
fightglobal.com/787
says “the range, speed and size of the 787-8 serves well to meet medium-sized demand for long-haul routes”. It adds that these qualities contributed to its decision to launch services between Tokyo and Boston next year using the 787. The Boston-Narita leg will be JAL’s second-longest routing – 13h 40min. Like JAL, China Southern expects to receive the first of 10 Dreamliners before yearend, and plans to deploy them on international flights. “We will mainly use them to open up new international routes rather than on existing flights,” says chairman Si Xianmin.
787 OPERATORS – EARLY NETWORK PLANS
Beijing Bei ing
Boston
Tokyo Doha
BETTER RANGE CAPABILITY
Domestic, Tokyo-Beijing, North America and Europe
Tokyo-Boston and long-haul routes
changes to schedules and maintenance plans. Qatar Airways expects it will be roughly the sixth customer to introduce the 787, with its first of 30 on order due to arrive in the second quarter of 2012. When the airline announced its order in 2007, deliveries were due to start in the first half of 2010. Chief executive Akbar Al Baker says the delays “were very disruptive indeed” to route development plans and the resulting revenue losses “were far in excess of the compensation provided by Boeing”. To make up for the potential capacity shortfall resulting from the delays, the airline postponed the return of leased Airbus A330s as well as the sale of its own aircraft. Launch operator ANA will give the 787 its commercial debut on a charter service between Tokyo Narita and Hong Kong on 26 October. The airline’s initial batch of 787s have 264 seats for regional and domestic operations and will later be adapted to a lower-density, 222-seat layout. A spacious 158-seat configuration will be flown on long-haul services. “We are now going to get the 787 and have more expectation than anything else. We can now do whatever we wanted to do three years ago,” Ito says.
Boeing promises to to revolutionise passenger experience with the Dreamliner’s cabin design
fightglobal.com/787
Intra Gulf, Europe and Asia
ANA’s regular 787 services begin on 1 November, with daily services between Tokyo Haneda and Okayama and Hiroshima. International 787 operations start in December between Haneda and Beijing while, from January, the type will be used for a new service – three weekly flights between Haneda and Frankfurt. The airline also plans to use the 787 to connect Haneda with Itami, Yamaguchi-Ube and Matsuyama by March. In the longer term, the liberalisation of Japan’s airline market will allow ANA to add new destinations in North America and Europe, where its 787 fleet can be best utilised. JAL ordered its 787s to replace mediumsized aircraft such as older 767s and Airbus A300-600s that have since been retired. The Dreamliner acquisition also fits in with its overall fleet-management policy to reduce the number of types operated. “The 787 is a game changer. Previously, we used larger aircraft on long-haul routes as they had the range but the concept has changed with the 787,” says JAL president Masaru Onishi. “The 787 allows us to be more efficient.” To maximise fuel efficiency, JAL will deploy the 787 on long-haul routes. The airline
Qatar Airways sees the 787-8 as “an excellent route-development tool” and will use its fleet initially to develop new European points with widebody capacity that could not be economically sustained with its existing widebody types. “The 787-8 has been acquired primarily as an A330-200 replacement but may also replace the A321 on some denser, short-haul routes,” says Al Baker. “Although our 787-8s will have about 20 fewer seats that our [272-seat] A330-200s, we believe that the 787 has a lower total operating cost per seat over the A330 and a double-digit total-cost-per-trip advantage, when comparing new aircraft at representative net acquisition costs. The 787-8 also has a significantly better range capability than the A330.” Initial operations next year will see the type deployed on Qatar’s intra-Gulf services to aid crew training. The 787s will then migrate progressively to longer routes, serving points in Europe and Asia. Qatar is one of a number of 787 customers that has also ordered Airbus rival, the A350, but the two types will have quite different roles in the Qatar fleet, says Al Baker. “At Qatar Airways, the 787-8 is principally a frequency-development tool, whereas the A350 is a capacity-development tool.” So after all the talk, the industry – and 787 customers – wait with bated breath to see if the Dreamliner is the game changer it is cracked up to be. It will not be long before we all find out. O Read the Airline Business’ cover interview with Qatar Airways chief executive Akbar Al Baker: flightglobal.com/albaker
l a b o l g t h g i l F / r e w o r t s O n o J
2011 | Flightglobal | 23
MICROCUTAWAY
SKIN-DEEP Inside the 787-8 (initial production version) 787 launch customer All Nippon Airways depicted (264 seat layout) 1 ,4::<64 2 %:>4;<2<9843:;:6 3 .>:3>3:38;65<6C= ?D,:38>99":996"# 93:63B66<@ 4B62>64<94<; 46;9@@ 4 =6:632@ 5 %:>4365<99@29>6 >9:946)6#:>@ 6 =:@ 7 "263>7<; 8 -:>9:38 9 %:>4&99@ 10%<969;633:;:6 C2932:96 11!<639326 120'% 13%:>43::94 14$3::@326 15&99@4;2 16"26@3@?64::>6 6B293;9645 1716:5<93:;:6566 18464<:5596 19,:99,:@3.4 92< 20&9$9363&$?<2:54 92< 219<66<99:@94649 22*=66:9639< 23,84>66;3:;:6 32:4>63 24-63463>638 2569:C29 26)6>62:?32:96 27+<2:464;9 32:96 28+<2:4B;32:96 29%9;:32:96 30(2:464;:69 32:96 31%:<>96946)6 #:>@63:;:6&::463: )6!<6936328 32)6946<;;:2 3362:4B;C29;:?@ 34">62:?"%, 35"::9929;::3:63; >64:>? 36$3::@326 37,3::94 38&99@ 39"26B::<3<3:;:6 400'%
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%:9=6::>66B6>6B?
5.74m (18.9ft) "263:36:
Boeing 787 family
Tim Bicheno-Brown 2011
ALTERNATIVE USES
IN MY VIEW
“The new-build market for cargo planes in this class is quite limited, as Airbus is finding out on its A330F programme” RICHARD ABOULAFIA
Vice-president of analysis, Teal Group
ROLE REVERSALS
each been adapted for numerous roles. One company – Oregon-based Evergreen – even uses the 747 to dump chemical retardant on wildfires. And the 777 has recently launched a second career as a pure freighter. On the other hand, there are no guarantees that the 787 will find other roles, and some analysts wonder if the aircraft’s design philosophy will prevent its success in other markets. “One problem is that the 787 is designed with minimal margin tolerances, while older jets were designed before [computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacturing] became an extremely precise tool,” says Richard Aboulafia, vice-president of analysis at the Teal Group.
have designed provisions into the [787] when the market demands it to allow that aircraft to ith entry-into-service (EIS) far off become a freighter.” in the unknown distance in May That statement marked the last time Boeing 2008 – in fact, it would become publicly discussed plans for alternative uses of nearly two-and-a-half years – Boe- the 787, but did nothing to stop the speculaing felt comfortable revealing one of the 787’s tion. Large aircraft are often launched with a hidden and potentially lucrative design secrets. single job envisioned – carrying passengers, for Tom Crabtree, then a regional director for busi- example – but often find second and even third ness strategy at Boeing Commercial Airplanes, careers serving other markets. Freighters and casually gave the secret away in a presentation to special mission aircraft for the military are two journalists inside the company’s sprawling facto- of the most obvious examples. ry complex in Everett, Washington. Boeing has already planned to make the 787 Buried in the blueprints of the all-composite readily available for the freighter market, and fuselage of the new widebody are the provi- the widebody has already appeared in US Air sions to quickly transform the 787 from an air- Force concept studies as a candidate to serve in liner into a pure freighter, Crabtree said. a variety of roles ranging from next-generation “We worked with the initial design… five surveillance aircraft to the successor of the Boeyears ago during the initial sizing of the airing VC-25A – the Boeing 747-200 also known plane,” said Crabtree. “We have routed the sys- as Air Force One when the US President is on tems such that the area where the main deck board. Finding such alternative roles is an esdoor would go are clear of any reroutings, say, tablished tradition for most new Boeing airlin[of] electrical or hydraulic lines. Long term, we ers. The Boeing 707, 737, 747 and 767 have
A DESIGN LEARNING CURVE
What is the Boeing 787’s potential as a freighter or military aircraft? Can plastic fantastic prove a flexible friend? STEPHEN TRIMBLE WASHINGTON DC
W
g n i e o B
26 | Flightglobal | 2011
As design methods have become precise, manufacturers have discovered that planning ahead for secondary roles is more critical than ever. Airbus, for example, discovered that the freighter version of the A330-200 required a redesign. The passenger version was built with a slight forward tilt. The slope is almost unnoticeable to passengers, but on a freighter would have forced customers to buy special equipment to slide cargo pallets from the front to the back. For the A330-200F, the nose gear is raised up slightly to make the fuselage level, and a new fairing was added to the enlarged gear doors. Crabtree’s comments in 2008 could still offer reassurance to pricing analysts in the airline market who must predict aircraft valuations over time. If Boeing has already made provisions for the 787 to serve as a freighter, valuation experts may keep price levels stable for a longer period. Airbus appears to play similar games in public statements about its aircraft. For example, Airbus’s latest global market forecast may be sending a subtle signal to pricing analysts about the company’s long-term intentions for the new A350 widebody. The A350 is listed in the 2010 forecast as one of five future large freighters, a category listed in the report as also including the 747, 777, MD-11 and A380. Boeing’s 787, however, is listed nowhere in Airbus’s market forecast, even among the regional and long-range freighters segment that includes the A330 and 767. Airbus may not want to give Boeing any more ammunition to fightglobal.com/787
The 737 is popular in the special missions market as the P-8 Poseidon (bottom left) Could the 787 be a candidate for a future Air Force One? (below)
s e r u t a e F x e R
boost the 787’s pricing forecasts. At the same time, it is probably too early for the freighter market to be confident in the 787 as future member of the fleet. “The 787 freighter concept is extremely premature. Cargo planes in this class tend to be conversions, which are useful for maintaining asset values but typically only kick in after 15–20 years of airline service, at least,” Aboulafia says. Boeing’s 20-year market forecast shows that it expects the market for a 787-sized freighter to shrink in the future. In 2009, freighters with between a 40-tonne and 80-tonne payload capacity represented 36% of the market, according to Boeing’s latest World Air Cargo Forecast 2011. In 2029, the same market is projected to account for 27% of all freighters. A future military role for the 787 is also not a sure thing, despite Boeing’s success with adapting previous models. For one thing, military customers have not expressed great interest in converting widebody airliners into special mission roles. Several years ago, the USAF purchased a 767-400ER to convert into a replacement for the Northrop Grumman E-8C joint surveillance target attack radar system (JSTARS) and the fightglobal.com/787
Boeing E-3 airborne warning and control system (AWACS). However, the USAF cancelled the E-10A multi-sensor command and control aircraft (MC2A) in 2005. Meanwhile, Boeing’s 737 narrowbody has become popular in the special missions market, with the US and Indian navies ordering the P-8 Poseidon. SINGLE-AISLE, MANY USES
“There’s no need for a larger special mission aircraft. I can only think of one instance of twin-aisle jets being used for [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] or other special mission duties – Japan’s four 767-based AWACS,” says Aboulafia. “Single-aisle jets offer superb range and endurance these days, thanks to business jet derivatives of commercial 737s and A320s,” adds Aboulafia. “Given that radars and other avionics are getting smaller, special mission size requirements aren’t likely to grow at all, particularly with a great reliance on offboard sensors.“ In 2008, the USAF also asked Boeing to submit design and cost data for the 787 while researching options for a VC-25A replacement. The USAF request also asked for information about the 777, 747-8 and even the Airbus A380.
However, the Obama administration cancelled early studies for the VC-25A replacement programme. Boeing delivered both VC-25As in 1991, and the aircraft now rank among the USAF’s most costly aircraft to operate. The 787 seems ill-suited to serve as a VC-25A replacement, if a requirement to recapitalise the fleet is ever relaunched. “There is no way the 787 would make a respectable Air Force One. It’s just too small given the lift requirement,” says Aboulafia. Boeing has already converted the 747 into a tanker for Iran and the 767 into an aerial refueller for Italy and Japan. The USAF has also ordered a new version called the 767-2C as the KC-X tanker. In the KC-X competition, Boeing never seriously considered the 787 as a candidate. Instead, a KC-777 was in development until the USAF issued specifications that favoured a smaller aircraft. The KC-Y requirement to replace the KC-10 remains in the USAF’s long-term plans. Both the 787 and 777 could be possible candidates, but the 787’s tight design tolerances could pose problems for the company’s engineers to overcome. O Stephen Trimble provides running commentary on developments in military aviation at flightglobal.com/dewline
2011 | Flightglobal | 27
MARKET
THROWING DOWN THE GAUNTLET Despite the Dreamliner’s development problems, Boeing has secured over 800 orders for its carbonfibre airliner. Caught napping by the 787’s sales success, Airbus has been fighting to compete with its A350
element of “wait and see” by some existing programme which led to doubts that Boeing and potential new customers after the devel- would be able to deliver its initial 787 specifiith an order backlog in excess of opment troubles and delays. cations. “Our first reaction was that they were 800 aircraft, the success enjoyed If the 787’s rapid order rate was a surprise exaggerating what they could do,” he said. by Boeing’s 787 sales team has to Boeing, it was even more of a shock to AirAlthough history now shows that Airbus’s been in stark contrast to the tur- bus. But if the European airframer was caught cynicism about the 787 claims may have been moil of its development programme. off-guard by the Dreamliner’s early sales suc- partially justified, the reality is that customers The rate of orders broke all records, with cess, it has moved quickly to close the gap. were queuing up to order Boeing’s “plastic the Dreamliner becoming the fastest-selling Initially, Toulouse did not have a competi- fantastic” and Airbus had to up the ante. But airliner since launch, racking up 677 sales tive response in the market place, and as it by the time Airbus finally launched the XWB from 47 customers worth $110 billion by the tried to regroup, the door was left wide open in December 2006, Boeing had used its threetime of its roll-out in July 2007. for Seattle to romp home in a series of cam- year lead to rack up 450 orders. At that time, of course, the maiden flight paigns. There followed a sequence of strategic was due to follow straight after and first deliv- U-turns by Airbus as it dithered about what its SIGNIFICANT MARKET LEAD eries within a year. So although in gross terms new A350 twinjet should be, giving Boeing Five years on, and Boeing still has a significant Boeing has accumulated almost 1,000 orders several years’ head start in both sales and market lead over the XWB with 821 orders in the seven years since launch, the backlog development time. against 567. But while the 787 and A350 are the has suffered in the wake of delivery delays to “Everyone was writing that we redesigned new-generation twinjet offerings from Seattle the tune of about 150 cancellations. the A350 six or seven times,” joked Airbus’s and Toulouse, the size offerings of the two famiOrder intake has slowed dramatically in re- chief operating officer customers, John Leahy, lies mean they overlap rather than compete dicent times for a combination of reasons. The back in 2007 after the A350 had finally crys- rectly, which is why the 250- to 300-seat A330 endless reschedulings since the roll-out have tallised as the XWB. “We didn’t. We rede- models are an important part of the Airbus araffected slot availability, with the multi-year signed it three times, and that was enough.” moury. And Boeing would counter that the lead time for batches of new aircraft having Back then, Leahy admitted to having been larger A350 variants compete just as much with effectively been in limbo since the original “caught napping” by the Dreamliner’s suc- the 777, which is also enjoying strong sales. slip four years ago of the planned May 2008 cess, but defended that initial lack of response Sales of the 20-year-old A330 have resurged first delivery. There has probably also been an by pointing to the failed Sonic Cruiser – partially thanks to ongoing doubts about MAX KINGSLEY-JONES LONDON
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IN MY VIEW
“We did not let the delay distort our business... a more difficult delivery can only make the baby more precious and adorable” SHINICHIRO ITO
Chief executive, All Nippon Airways
28 | Flightglobal | 2011
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g n i e o B
near-term 787 availability – and, when combined with A350 sales, give Toulouse a five percentage point lead over its rival in overall backlog market share. “The A350 is the main competition, which is sized slightly larger at 270-350 seats versus the 787’s 242-320 seats in a three-class layout – although with many moving to four classes, the seat counts will be lower,” says Chris Seymour, head of market analysis at Flightglobal’s data and consultancy arm, Ascend. “Both programmes have cutting-edge technology and carbonfibre structures, albeit differing in the fuselage manufacturing process,” Seymour adds. “Both have sold well to date. Indeed, 10 airlines have ordered both – suggesting some complementary usage, especially with the smaller 787-8 and the A350-900.” Richard Aboulafia, vice-president of analysis at Teal Group, believes that in the longer term, Airbus’s decision to size the A350 family to overlap the top end of the 787’s category and the 777’s too means Boeing will have a niche to itself. “Since there’s really no Airbus opposition – the A350-800 is kind of a bad joke at this point – the 787 will do as well as the 767 and 777 would have in a much larger
All Nippon Airways launched the 787’s sales surge in 2004 with a 50-aircraft order
787 BACKLOG VS A330/A350
A330 348 20% 787 821 47.3%
Airbus total 915 52.7%
A350 567 32.7%
Total - 1,736
SOURCE: Flightglobal ACAS database
market and with no competition,” he says. Airbus and Boeing both agree that the market in which their two all-new products compete will account for about one-fifth of all airliner deliveries over the next 20 years in unit terms, and just over 40% in value terms. However, because their overall delivery forecasts are different (Air bus, for example, excludes aircraft with fewer than 100 seats and sees more demand for ultralarge airliners), the number of units also differs. Boeing’s latest 20-year forecast for widebody
twinjet deliveries (passenger and freighter aircraft) is 7,330 units worth $1.8 trillion, whereas Airbus says the market will account for 6,240 deliveries worth about $1.3 trillion. Ascend’s ‘AGA’ global aircraft forecast predicts that about 4,600 passenger twinjets will be delivered during the next 20 years in the size categories (250-300 seats) covered by the 787 models (with 2,300 in larger seat sizes). “Some 80% of deliveries are expected to be in the sizes covered by the 787-9 and ‘-10X’ stretch, so it really is at the core of the wide body market demand,” says Seymour. Ascend analysts believe the 787 is well placed to hold on to at least 50% of the market in the near term (over the next 10 years), when its main threat will come from the A330 and A350. Seymour adds: “Longer term, it will be competing with the A350, any new competitor – from China, perhaps – and whatever Boeing develops in the widebody arena to replace the 777-200ER – be it a 777 derivative or the 787-10X.” Boeing views the 787/A350 category as “the fastest-growing segment of the market” and believes the availability of these new aircraft has driven “the resurgent demand for twin-aisle airplanes” as the new offerings will bring a significant improvement in efficiency over their predecessors. It also expects the two new types to “spur airlines to trade up” from the 767/A330-size category as they roll over their fleets. The Asia-Pacific region dominates both aircraft manufacturers’ long-term forecasts, so it is no surprise that they expect it to account for the largest proportion of their new widebody twinjets. Boeing expects Asia-Pacific carriers to account for 40% of twin-aisle deliveries, while Airbus puts demand even higher, at 43% of the total. Teal’s Aboulafia sees no reason – assuming Boeing makes the right call on specifications – why the 787 cannot emulate the success of its big sister: “The 777 has ultimately been operated by every single important international carrier except Qantas, and that was one of Qantas’s mistakes,” he says. That means several thousand 787 sales, and individual fleets well above 100. “In terms of route development, flexibility and airline strategies, the 787 is exactly what the international market wants,” says gg
WIDEBODY TWINJET COMPARISON 787
777
A330
A350
List price ($m)
185-218
232-284
200-223
237-300
Seats
260-290
300-365
250-295
270-350
8,200-8,500
7,730-9,400
5,850-7250
8,100-8,400
Range (nm) Orders First delivery
821
1,242
1,155
567
Sep 2011
May 1995
Dec 1993
Q4 2013
SOURCE: Manufacturers
fightglobal.com/787
2011 | Flightglobal | 29
MARKET
Aboulafia. “It is also a very appealing asset from a financial perspective, which is extremely important these days.” Seymour concurs that the 787 fleets of some major operators are likely to run into three figures over time. “There are already some with 50 or more 787s on order; although currently there are just 10 airlines that have a fleet of a passenger widebody type that is in excess of 100 units,” he says. “Looking at other large widebody operators, Delta [with 159 wide bodies in service] is another obvious candi-
date in the longer term. It deferred the Northwest 787 order inherited with the merger, and looks to be concentrating on its narrowbody replacement first; American’s 787 deal is still a letter of intent pending industrial negotiations with its pilots; and Lufthansa is yet to order anything, as are Malaysia Airlines and Turkish Airlines.” Sales of the 787 are currently split roughly 70:30 in favour of the smaller variant, but ultimately the order trend is expected to follow the usual pattern of the stretched derivatives
gg
20 YEAR TWIN-AISLE DEMAND BY REGION Deliveries 3,000 40%
Boeing 7,330
5,784
33,500
24,974
Total twin-aisle*
43%
2,500
Total demand
Airbus
2,000 19%
1,500
20%
15%
15%
1,000
14%
12% 500
0
5%
Asia-Pacifc
Europe
Middle East
North America
5%
Latin America
5%
3%
Arica
3%
2%
CIS
Percentages show share of all tw in-aisle deliveries during 20-year period *Boeing data includes 280 medium widebody freighter deliveries. Airbus data excludes 379 regional and long-range freighter deliveries SOURCE: Airbus GMF (2010-2029), Boeing CMO (2011-2030)
787 VS A350 - BACKLOG ACCUMULATION 787
Backlog 1,000
A350** 910
851
817
800
A350 XWB 847
821
583
600 483
448 400
567
505
320
291 200 56 0
102 87
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 All data at year-end except *which is at 31 August 2011 **Original variant SOURCE: Flightglobal ACAS database
2009
2010
2011*
becoming the most abundant of the family members. Seymour adds: “We expect the larger -9/10X variants will be the most popular over the long term and the orders upsizing seems to be showing that, too – especially with more customers adopting four-class layouts, the extra cabin space is needed.” Although the 787’s pioneering structural design has been at the root of some of its development problems, the longevity that its carbonfibre construction promises over conventional aluminium aircraft is reflected in its residual value. “We expect the 787 to perform more like a narrowbody in residual value terms than a traditional widebody, as it is expected to last longer,” says Seymour. Widebodies have traditionally had shorter useful economic lives than narrowbodies in their primary role – for example, 20-25 years rather than 25-plus years – which means their values depreciate at a faster rate. But with the 787’s structure being effectively corrosion resistant compared with airliners built from traditional materials, and because maintenance costs will be lower over time, the aircraft should be more economical for longer, says Seymour. “It’s for the 787 to now prove that those assumptions are valid.” A potential negative aspect of the 787’s car bonfibre design for values is the risk that sometimes comes with innovation. Boeing admits it is on a steep learning curve with the carbonfibre technology, and this could lead to the introduction of frequent block changes with improved build standards as it expands its understanding of the structure and identifies weight savings. Although it is not uncommon for the early airframes in a new programme to be superseded by ones with better payload/range capability, this is a factor only for a small fleet with many sub-variants with different upgradeability, such as the Lockheed TriStar, says Seymour. “It is still early days on the 787 as to how many identifiable blocks of aircraft there may be. In the end, the market will decide on what value penalty there may be for less-capable or non-upgradeable aircraft.” O More about Flightglobal’s newly acquired data and consultancy division at: flightglobal.com/ascend
IN MY VIEW
“The 787 is a game-changer. Previously, we used larger aircraft on long-haul routes as they had the range” MASARU ONISHI
President, Japan Airlines
30 | Flightglobal | 2011
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