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Descripción: Hino EPC MANUAL
EPC Contractors: Changing with the Industry
Larry Bolander
AIChE AICh E Mana Manageme gement nt Division Division Conference Conference April 2007 ®
The Contractor’s World Yesterday Previous Execution Strategies
Resulting Execution Strategies
Few
FEED
projects Small to medium size Mainly revamps Sufficient supply in market Prices – Deliveries – Resources –
Hungry
contractors Sporadic mega projects
by select contractors Mixed execution Competitively tendered EPC lump sum projects Many
took risky projects at low (or no) margin
Agreed
to onerous contract
terms Integrated, client-led PMC
“Contractor margins were squeezed by owners from an average of 6 to 10 percent pre-1985 to 2 to 5 percent in the 1990 to 2002 period.” Independent Project Analysis
The Contractor’s World Today Current Situation
Execution Strategy for Success
Demand exceeds resources Increased project size and complexity
Increase in sole source awards PMC+ contractor FEED & EPC tied together Negotiated awards
Shortage of qualified contractors
Construction using multiple qualified contractors Operating under a “Managed Growth” principle
“Contractor now demands 10-12 percent on a risk-free basis.” Independent Project Analysis
Workload Distribution
IPA Regional Risk Distribution (Regions Displaying Highest Risk Premiums)
Process Plant Industry Bookings (Sustained Demand Case) 60% Growth between 2005 and 2009 – 3 of 5 new employees 250 Refining
Chem/Petrochem
O/G Production
Synthetic Fuels
Effective Capacity
200 . r Y / H M M M
150
100
50
0 8 5
8 7
8 9
9 1
9 3
9 5
9 7
9 9
0 1
0 3
0 5
0 7
0 9
Year
Graph compares process plant industry bookings expressed in man-hours compared to the available man-hours in the industry. * Source is major oil companies including ExxonMobil, the Joint Industry Program, ENR, and Fluor
Where Are the Resources? N. America Bachelor’s Degrees from 1999-2005
20% increase in Engineering Bachelor Degrees since 1999 3% increase in 5 major areas for EPC contractors since 1999 27% decrease in Chemical Engineering from 1999 to 2005 12% decrease in Civil Engineering from 1999 to 2005
Higher salary offers to attract new employees – Hiring new grads – Tapping into other industries –
Maximizing
global resources
Standardizing work processes – Training –
Retention
Reward to retain – Flexible company policies –
Staying Up with the Changing Technologies
Schools teach “how it’s been done”
Contractors must anticipate trends before owners Develop expertise – Begin process planning – Connect with licensors / suppliers –
Investments shifting to non-petroleum-based plants –
Writing the future on modifying processes –
Ex. – Nuclear, coal gasification, bio-fuels Ex. – CAD modified design / construction work processes
Large fabricators/suppliers doing more design work
Sharing Knowledge Retirees Giving back Senior engineers Rotation - Research Global Execution Centers Training & Development
Qatar
Training simulators
China
USA
Spain
Knowledge Management Center
Australia
Operations excellence
Young engineers Rotation - Projects
All Disciplines Students Projects and Research Community Scholars and teachers
Individual Procedures
Work processes
Government and industry collaborative skills initiatives
Projects
Procurement Challenges: Market Uncertainty
Extremely volatile commodity, material and equipment prices
Extending lead times
Higher shop loads
Reasons: raw material supply and demand imbalance – Constraints throughout the supply chain – Capacity not being added – Consolidation of 21 key suppliers down to 4
Major Equipment Escalation General Fabricated Equipment
– Sustained
Bulk Materials Escalation Fabricated Pipe
EPC Challenges
Employees’ market People jumping from company to company – Salaries increasing exponentially – Must market industry better to attract workers –
Sharing knowledge
Expand fabricator resource base Train third-world fabricators – Help them be successful –
Owners need contractors to be execution partners Higher investments (mega projects) require more commitment – Greater investment for contractors to grow business (salaries, real estate, equipment, training, etc.) – Higher fees – Wall Street expectations –
Key Relationship Success Criteria Alliance
Strong
p i h s n o i t a l e r f o h t g n e r t S
d r a w e r & k s Reliance i R ; t s u r T
Compatability
Partner Trust
Depth
Closeness Added value
Weak Low
Impact on business performance
High
Future State of Industry
EPC workload to peak in 2009 – – – – –
Large drop in “lead” resources in 2-5 years More projects awarded to less qualified contractor teams More projects will miss on costs and schedules Contractors with best teams / tools / processes will succeed Promoting engineering careers in schools
Contractors / owners / suppliers teaming on new technologies
Continued volatility for commodities / material / equipment
Owners adopting contracting strategies to meet market realities will experience best results
Large fabricators/suppliers doing more design work
