MENCAPAI VISI 2030: SEBUAH MODEL MAKROEKONOMI INDONESIA DENGAN PEMODELAN SYSTEM DYNAMICS

LABI@X@K UKYK >898= YANQ@D LOJAG L@FÔAFOBOLK KBJOBAYK@ JABC@B XALOJAG@B Y[YZAL J[B@LKIY

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LQD@L@J FD@K^QG N@D^K BKL = >:8838:: X~oc~`l Yzqjk = Yzqjk Xaln`bcqb`b

KBYZKZQZ ZAFBOGOCK N@BJQBC >884 >884

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Ogad LQD@L@J FD@K^QG N@D^K BKL = >:8838::

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LQD@L@J FD@K^QG N@D^K BKL = >:8838::

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Yklqg`yk Na~n`c`k Yfab`~ko ‥‥""‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"" 55

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Yfab`~ko Nqykbayy `y Qyq`g ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥" 55

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Yfab`~ko xabkbcf`z`b

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@b`gkyky D`ykg Yklqg`yk‥‥‥"‥‥‥ Yklqg`yk‥‥‥"‥‥‥‥‥"‥‥‥‥‥ ‥‥"‥‥‥‥‥ 54

U"9

Xa~n`bjkbc`b Xa~zqlnqd`b Oqzxqz j`b Zkbcf`z

$Kbjqyz~k X`j`z Loj`g+ ‥‥‥"" ‥‥‥"" 53

Xabc`bccq~`b ‥‥‥""‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"‥‥‥‥‥" U":

3:

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U"1

Yz~qfzq~ Kbjqyz~k Kbjqyz~k Kbjobayk` j`b Fal`lxq`b Kxzaf Kbjobayk` Kbjobayk ` ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ 35

U"5 N@N UK

Loj`g Yoyk`g Xaln`bcqb`b ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ 3;

Fayklxqg`b j`b Y`~`b UK"0

Fayklxqg`b """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 40

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Y`~`b, Y`~`b,y`~`b """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""""""" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 4>

J@EZ@^ XQYZ@F@ """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" """"""""""" 41

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J@EZ@^ G@LXK^@B G`lxk~`b 0

Xa~y`l``b lojag $j`g`l Xosa~ykl+ ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥" ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥" 45

G`lxk~`b >

X~oyajq~ X~oyajq~ Yz`zkyzkf Xabcqmk`b Lojag ‥‥‥"""‥‥‥‥‥" 4;

G`lxk~`b 9

Ekzzkbc $ +@gxd` ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ ;9

G`lxk~`b :

Xabzkbcb{` ZXE $Zoz`g X~ojqizkukz{ Eìzo~ + j`b Kbza~`fyk ZXE jabc`b

‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥" ;:

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Xabcaln`bc`b Yafzo~ Kbjqyz~k jk Kbjobayk` ‥‥‥‥‥‥ ;4

tkk

J@EZ@^ C@LN@^ C`ln`~ 0"0 ^`yko Dqz`bc Kbjobayk` za~d`j`x XJN ‥‥‥"‥‥‥‥‥"" > C`ln`~ 0"> Xa~zqlnqd`b XJN j`b XJN xa~ f`xkz` ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥""

9

C`ln`~ >"0 XJN d`~c` fobyz`b 0;;9 % >888 j`b XJN d`~c` na~g`fq ‥" 4 C`ln`~ >"> Xa~n`bjkbc`b Jaeg`zo~ XJN j`b KDF $z`dqb j`y`~ >888+‥"‥ >888+‥"‥08 C`ln`~ >"9 Y{yzal J{b`lkiy yan`c`k yq`zq lazoj` ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ >> C`ln`~ >": XJN Xa~ F`xkz` Kbjobayk`' 0;;8 ’ >898 ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"" ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"" >4 C`ln`~ >"1" CJX D`~c` Na~g`fq 1 Bac`~` Za~nay`~' >881 j`b >898 ‥‥ >4 C`ln`~ 9" 0 Yanq`d ykyzal ‥‥‥‥‥‥" ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ 90 C`ln`~ 9"> X~oyajq~ xalojag`b y{yzal j{b`lkiy labq~qz Yàaj $0;;:+ " 99 C`ln`~ :"0 Xa~zqlnqd`b XJN Kbjobayk` j`b Xa~yabz`ya Y afzo~ Xa~z`bk`b uy Yafzo~ Xabcog`d`b za~d`j`x XJN Kbjobayk` ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"

:;

C`ln`~ :"> I`qy`g Goox Lojag L`f~oafobolk ‥‥""‥‥‥‥‥‥‥" 10 C`ln`~ :"9 Egos Jk`c~`l Yafzo~ Coua~blabz j`b Xa~l`babz Kbiola " 1: C`ln`~ :": Egos Jk`c~`l Yafzo~ @cc~ac`za Jal`bj' Xozabzk`g Oqzxqz j`b Kbeg`yk ya~z` Baz Atxo~z ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"‥‥‥‥‥‥‥" 15 C`ln`~ :"1 Egos Jk`c~`l Yafzo~ F`xkz`g' YAJ j`b GAJ ‥‥‥‥‥‥ 13 C`ln`~ :"5 Egos Jk`c~`l Yafzo~ Zab`c` Fa~m` j`b Xabj`x`z`b xa~ F`xkz`"14 C`ln`~ :"3 Egos Jk`c~`l Yafzo~ X`j`z Loj`g ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ 1; C`ln`~ :"4 D`ykg na~n`c`k yklqg`yk yklqg`y k yfab`~ko j`y`~ $ nqykbayy `y qyq`g+‥" 59 C`ln`~ 1"0 I`qy`g goox

j`b ZXE ‥‥‥‥‥ ‥‥‥‥""""""""""""""‥""" ‥‥‥‥""""""""""""""‥""" 51

C`ln`~ 1"> Oqzxqz XJN $^x+ """"""""""""""""‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ """"""""""""""""‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"" ‥""

53

C`ln`~ 1"9 Xabj`x`z`b Xa~ F`xkz` $QY* xa~ mks`, mks` ,zdb+ ‥‥‥‥‥‥""" 53 C`ln`~ 1": Xozabzk`g Oqzxqz $^x+ ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"" 53 C`ln`~ 1"1 F`xkz`g Oqzxqz ^`zko ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"" C`ln`~ 1"5 Foaekykab

53

$Nazd`+ ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥""‥" 54

C`ln`~ 1"3 I`xkz`g G`noq~ ^`zko ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥" 54 C`ln`~ 1"4 X~kia Gauag $X+ ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"" 54 C`ln`~ 1"; ^`yko Kbuayz`yk, Kbuayz`yk ,XJN "‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ 54 C`ln`~ 1"08 Jayk~aj Kbuayzlabz uy Kbuayzlabz ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"‥" ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"‥" 54 C`ln`~ 1"00 Mqlg`d M qlg`d Zab`c` Fa~m` ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥""" """

54

tkkk

C`ln`~ 1"0> Xa~`b`b Kbuayz`yk yan`c`k ga`jkbc xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk ‥" 5; C`ln`~ 1"09 Jk`c~`l Egos {`bc labmag`yf`b dqnqbc`b `bz`~` zkbcf`z kbuayz`yk {`bc za~yajk` za~yajk ` ‥‥‥‥‥"‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥" ‥‥‥‥‥" ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"

39

C`ln`~ 1"0: Zkbcf`z Kbuayz`yk {`bc Za~yajk` ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥" 39 C`ln`~ 1"01 Kbjkf`zo~ Falqj`d`b Na~kbuayz`yk jk Kbjobayk` ‥‥‥‥‥ 31

tku

J@EZ@^ Z@NAG Z`nag 9"0 F`~`fza~kyzkf Y{yzal J{b`lkiy $L{~zuakz' >881+ ‥‥‥‥‥‥" 9> Z`nag 9"> Xabcqmk`b, Xabcqmk`b ,xabcqmk`b j`g`l Y{yzal J{b`lkiy‥‥"‥‥‥‥‥"

:0

Z`nag :"0 XJN Kbjobayk` Kbjobayk` 0;;1,>885 0;;1,>885 $XJN Na~j`y`~f`b Mabky Xabcagq`~`b+" :3 Z`nag :"> Xa~yabz`ya Mabky Xabcagq`~`b za~d`j`x za~d`j`x XJN Kbjobayk` Kbjobayk` 0;;1, 0;;1,>885" :3 Z`nag :"9 Xa~yabz`ya Xabcagq`~`b za~d`j`x Xa~zqlnqd`b XJN Kbjobayk` Kbjobayk` 0;;1, 0;;1 , >885

‥‥""‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"

:3

Z`nag :": XJN Kbjobayk` 0;;1, 0;;1 ,>885 $XJN Na~j`y`~f`b Yafzo~ Kbjqyz~k +‥ :4 Z`nag :"1 Xa~yabz`ya Yafzo~ Kbjqyz~k Za~d`j`x XJN X JN Kbjobayk` 0;;1, 0;;1 ,>885 "" :4 Z`nag :"5 Xa~yabz`ya xa~zqlnqd`b yafzo~ kbjqyz~k za~d`j`x xa~zqlnqd`b XJN Kbjobayk` 0;;1, 0;;1,>885 ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥" :; Z`nag :"3 Jèz`~ U`~k`nag Lojag ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥""‥‥""

18

Z`nag :"4 Qmk U`gkjkz`y Xabjqjqf ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥

58

Z`nag :"; Qmk U`gkjkz`y Oqzxqz ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"" 58 Z`nag :"08 Qmk U`gkjkz`y XJN xa~ f`xkz` ‥‥‥"‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥" 50 Z`nag :"00 Qmk U`gkjkz`y X~kia Gauag ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥""‥‥"

50

Z`nag :"0> J`z` {`bc {`bc jkcqb`f`b jkcqb`f`b qbzqf yklqg`yk lojag lojag j`y`~ j`y`~ ‥‥‥‥‥"

50

Z`nag 1"0 Xa~yabz`ya Klxo~ Kbjobayk` labq~qz cogobc`b n`~`bc ‥""‥‥

3>

Z`nag 1"> Xa~n`bjkbc`b D`ykg Yklqg`yk ‥‥""‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥

30

Z`nag 1"9 J`b` Xkd`f Fazkc` [c Za~dklxqb jk Xa~n`bf`b Kbjobayk` $Lkg{`~+"3> Z`nag 1": â`gky`yk EJK EJ K ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"" ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥"" 39 Z`nag 1"1 Zkbcf`z Xabc`bccq~`b uy Xa~zqlnqd`b XJN ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ 3: Z`nag 1"5 Xa~yabz`yk Kbuayz`yk Za~d`j`x XJN ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ 3: Z`nag 1"3 J`z` Xa~faln`bc`b Xa~n`bf`b Kbjobayk` Kbjobayk` ‥‥‥‥‥‥‥‥ 35 Z`nag 1"4 Mqlg`d X`zab Kbjobayk` j`b Bac`~` Zaz`bcc` ‥‥‥‥‥‥"

34

Z`nag 1"; Xa~n`bjkbc`b Xa~n`bjkbc`b loj`g yoyk`g j`b kbyzkzqyk xabagkzk`b ‥‥‥‥"" 48

N@N K XABJ@DQGQ@B K"0 G`z`~ Nag`f`bc

Jq` galn`c` fobyqgz`b faq`bc`b jqbk`' X~kia S`za~ Doqya Iooxa~y $>885+ j`b Cogjl`b Yìdy $>883+' lalx~ajkfyk n`ds` Kbjobayk` `f`b labm`jk y`g`d y`zq

bac`~` jabc`b fafq`z`b afobolk za~nay`~ x`j` z`dqb >818" Cogjl`b Yìdy j`g`l l`f`g`db{` {`bc na~mqjqg B,00= Lo~a zd`b @i~ob{l labccogobcf`b Agauab $B,00+ x`j` q~qz`b fa 3" B,00 `j`g`d Kbjobayk` j`g`l fagolxof Batz , Agauab

fagolxof 00 bac`~` {`bc lalxqb{`k xozabyk xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk nay`~ j`b jkx~ajkfyk `f`b la~`m`k XJN jqbk` yazkj`fb{` x`gkbc g`ln`z z`dqb >818" Yab`j` jabc`b Cogjl`b Yìdy' X~kia S`za~ Doqya Iooxa~y mqc` labaz`xf`b Kbjobayk` yan`c`k fafq`z`b afobolk za~nay`~ bolo~ 5 x`gkbc g`ln`z x`j` z`dqb >818 j`g`l `~zkfag na~mqjqg ‗ Zda So~gj kb >818 “" @j` n`b{`f xa~zkln`bc`b fajq` galn`c` za~yanqz labalx`zf`b Kbjobayk` g`{`f yan`c`k y`g`d y`zq n`f`g fafq`z`b afobolk za~nay`~ x`j` z`dqb >818 {`bc `f`b j`z`bc" @bz`~` g`kb `j`b{` xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk {`bc lalxqb{`k ~abz`bc :! , 5! xa~ z`dqb' mqlg`d xoxqg`yk {`bc nay`~ j`b yz`nkgb{` bkg`k zqf`~ ~qxk`d j`g`l z`dqb, z`dqb,z`dqb za~`fdk~ kbk" Kbjobayk` yabjk~k' na~j`y`~f`b xa~fk~``b jk `z`y' zag`d lalnq`z ukyk Kbjobayk` >898 $[KE' >883+ {`bc x`j` kbzkb{` la~qlqyf`b ukyk Kbjobayk` qbzqf labm`jk bac`~` kbjqyz~k z`bccqd x`j` z`dqb >898' jkl`b` x`j` y``z kzq xabj`x`z`b xa~ f`xkz` Kbjobayk` jkxa~fk~`f`b `f`b labi`x`k QY* 04"888 xa~ z`dqb" J`~k yack afobolk yabjk~k' Kbjobayk` yabjk~k lalxqb{`k nana~`x` faqbccqg`b {`kzq= `+ mqlg`d xoxqg`yk {`bc y`bc`z nay`~ $Kbjobayk` za~l`yqf bac`~` na~xabjqjqf za~nay`~ fa alx`z jk jqbk`+' n+ faf`{``b `g`l {`bc lagklx`d' i+ fal`bjk~k`b Kbjobayk` j`~k KLE ’ jabc`b lagqb`yk yalq` folkzlab qz`bc gq`~ baca~k Kbjobayk` $yayq`k Gazza~ oe Kbzabz {`bc jkz`bj`z`bc`bk z`dqb 0;;3+' j`b j+ fana~d`ykg`b Kbjobayk` la~`kd xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk {`bc labjaf`zk `bcf` 5! xa~ z`dqb $y`l` jabc`b xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk yanagql f~kyky lobaza~+" [`bc zkj`f f`g`d xabzkbc k`g`d labq~qbb{` ~`yko qz`bc gq`~ baca~k za~d`j`x XJN {`bc

>

na~fky`~ 48! $x`j` z`dqb >888+ labm`jk fq~`bc :8! z`dqb >883' yaxa~zk {`bc jkxa~gkd`zf`b j`g`l C`ln`~ 0"0 jk n`s`d kbk $N`bf Jqbk`' >884+" Nana~`x` xa~qn`d`b xoykzke jk `z`y mkf` jkl`be``zf`b jabc`b n`kf' j`x`z labalx`zf`b Kbjobayk` x`j` xoykyk za~do~l`z yayq`k xa~fk~``b jk `z`y"

C`ln`~ 0"0 ^`yko Dqz`bc Kbjobayk` za~d`j`x XJN $yqlna~= N`bf Jqbk`+

Qbzqf kzq xa~gq jky`j`~k xabzkbcb{` fkz` lal`d`lk yz~qfzq~ xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk Kbjobayk` qbzqf la~`kd ukyk Kbjobayk` >898 yaf`gkcqy la~`kd xoykyk za~do~l`z yan`c`k y`g`d y`zq fafq`z`b afobolk jqbk` za~nay`~ x`j` z`dqb >818" Xal`d`l`b yz~qfzq~ xa~afobolk`b yq`zq bac`~` y`bc`zg`d xabzkbc' jk `bz`~`b{` qbzqf labcaz`dqk fagankd`b j`b fagal`d`bb{`" Jabc`b lal`d`lk fagankd`b fagank d`b j`b fafq~`bc`bb{`' fkz` j`x`z labc`lnkg fankm`f`b,fankm`f`b {`bc yz~`zacky qbzqf la~`kd fal`mq`b {`bc fkz` d`~`xf`b" Jk ykyk g`kb' yag`l` kbk f`mk`b l`f~oafobolk Kbjobayk` {`bc `j` d`b{` na~fqz`z labcab`k xa~`b ZXE $Zoz`g X~ojqizkukz{ Eìzo~
0

j`b ZXE yadkbcc` fkz` j`x`z labcab`gk fagankd`b j`b fagal`d`b

xa~afobolk`b fkz`" J`b j`~k kzq fkz` j`x`z labaz`xf`b yz~`zack {`bc x`gkbc zax`z n`ck xabi`x`k`b xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk {`bc fkz` d`~`xf`b na~y`l`" [`bc mqc` labm`jk yqlna~ xa~naj``b xabj`x`z j`g`l xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk yq`zq bac`~` `j`g`d ‗ n`c`kl`b` yan`kfb{` xabcaln`bc`b yafzo~ kbjqyz~k ? “" Yq`zq xabj`x`z lab{`z`f`b xabzkbcb{` xabcaln`bc`b yafzo~ kbjqyz~k x`j`z

0

`j`g`d n`ck`b x~oyabz`ya oqzxqz {`bc jkd`ykgf`b f`xkz`g

9

f`~{` `c`~ xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk l`lxq lab{a~`x zab`c` fa~m` {`bc ~ag`zke n`b{`f j`~kx`j` fkz` labcaln`bcf`b kbjqyz~k x`j`z loj`g" Xabj`x`z g`kb mqc` lab{`z`f`b xa~gqb{` fkz` labcaln`bcf`b kbjqyz~k x`j`z loj`g f`~ab` x~ojqf x`j`z loj`g la~qx`f`b x~ojqf {`bc na~bkg`k z`ln`d zkbcck yadkbcc` j`x`z labkbcf`zf`b x~oekz`nkgkz`y qy`d`" Fab{`z``b {`bc fkz` d`j`xk lalna~kf`b e`fz` n`ds` kbjqyz~k x`j`z f`~{` yaxa~zk kbjqyz~k yax`zq' ZXZ $zafyzkg j`b x~ojqf zafyzkg+ labc`g`lk l`y`, l`y`,l`y` yqgkz `fkn`z ya~nq`b x~ojqf klxo~ jabc`b d`~c` m`qd gankd lq~`d" Kbjqyz~k x`j`z f`~{` {`bc yag`l` kbk fkz` `bj`gf`b qbzqf labkbcf`zf`b fayajk``b g`x`bc`b fa~m` mqyz~q {`bc x`gkbc xa~z`l` labcq~`bck mqlg`d f`~{`s`bb{` nag`f`bc`b kbk" Zklnqg xa~z`b{``b n`c`kl`b` yad`~qyb{` fkz` laln`bcqb kbjqyz~k {`bc l`lxq labjqfqbc xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk yaf`gkcqy labcq~`bck mqlg`d xabc`bccq~`b" K"> Xa~qlqy`b L`y`g`d

Yz`bj`~ fadkjqx`b yq`zq bac`~` y`bc`z jkzabzqf`b ogad eqbcyk x~ojqfykb{` $L`bfkas' >889+" Yal`fkb zkbcck bkg`k eqbcyk x~ojqfyk `z`q l`fkb zkbcck zkbcf`z x~ojqfykb{`' l`f` l`fkb nay`~ xozabyk bac`~` za~yanqz qbzqf labkbcf`zf`b yz`bj`~ fadkjqx`bb{`" Nay`~`b eqbcyk x~ojqfyk jkxabc`~qdk ogad mqlg`d f`xkz`g' zab`c` fa~m` j`b e`fzo~ x~ojqfzkukz`y zoz`g $zoz`g x~ojqizkukz{ eìzo~ +" +" Fazkc` e`fzo~ kbk y`bc`z xabzkbc j`g`l xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk"

C`ln`~ 0"> Xa~zqlnqd`b XJN j`b XJN xa~ f`xkz`

Yaxa~zk {`bc {`bc j`x`z fkz` `l`zk j`g`l C`ln`~ 0"> jk`z`y $Zdolyob' Sayza~b' >883+ `j` xa~naj``b {`bc labiogof j`g`l xa~zqlnqd`b yz`bj`~ fadkjqx`b `bz`~

:

bac`~`" Bac`~`,bac`~` jk nabq` @e~kf` qlqlb{` labc`g`lk xa~zqlnqd`b yz`bj`~ fadkjqx`b {`bc ~ag`zke j`z`~' jk ykyk g`kb bac`~`,bac`~` Lì`b @yk` zqlnqd y`bc`z xay`z" N`df`b xa~zqlnqd`b Lì`b @yk` $Z`ks`b' Fo~a` Yag`z`b' Ykbc`xo~a j`b Dobcfobc+ m`qd gankd xay`z jkn`bjkbcf`b jabc`b xa~zqlnqd`b bac`~` l`mq $@la~kf` Ya~kf`z j`b A~ox` N`~`z+" Yzqjk za~`fdk~ labqbmqff`b n`ds` xa~zqlnqd`b yz`bj`~ fadkjqx`b Lì`b @yk`b jkjqfqbc ogad xabkbcf`z`b ~`yko kbuayz`yk za~d`j`x XJN ${`bc `f`b labkbcf`zf`b mqlg`d f`xkz`g+ j`b xabkbcf`z`b x~ojqfzkukz`y $L`bfkas' >889+" Xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk m`bcf` x`bm`bc yq`zq bac`~` jkxabc`~qdk ogad mqlg`d zab`c` fa~m`' mqlg`d f`xkz`g j`b zkbcf`z xabcq`y``b zafbogock" L`fkb zkbcck y`g`d y`zq e`fzo~ jk `z`y $mqlg`d f`xkz`g' zab`c` fa~m` j`b e`fzo~ x~ojqfzkukz`y zoz`g+' l`f` l`fkb zkbcck xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk yq`zq bac`~`" F`~ab` kzq lal`d`lk xa~`b f`xkz`g' zab`c` fa~m` j`b e`fzo~ x~ojqfzkukz`y zoz`g j`g`l yz~qfzq~ afobolk yq`zq bac`~` labm`jk d`g {`bc `l`z xabzkbc jke`d`lk qbzqf labcck~kbc afobolk yq`zq bac`~` fa `~`d {`bc gankd n`kf" J`g`l x`bj`bc`b afobolk' mqlg`d xoxqg`yk j`b f`xkz`g la~qx`f`b yq`zq fabkyi`{``b qbzqf lag`fqf`b fack`z`b afobolk" Mqlg`d xoxqg`yk fkz` {`bc nay`~ la~qx`f`b yq`zq e`fzo~ xabzkbc {`bc mkf` j`x`z fkz` fagog` jabc`b n`kf j`x`z labm`jk yqlna~ xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk {`bc xabzkbc" Jk ykyk g`kb' mqlg`d f`xkz`g {`bc na~`y`g j`~k kbuayz`yk $j`g`l j`b gq`~ baca~k+ la~qx`f`b `g`z x~ojqfyk {`bc fkz` nqzqdf`b qbzqf labkbcf`zf`b mqlg`d x~ojqfyk" Yaj`bcf`b qbzqf labccqb`f`b f`xkz`g kzq yabjk~k jkxa~gqf`b xabcaz`dq`b j`b xabcq`y``b zafbogock {`bc lal`j`k" Z`bx` xabcq`y``b zafbogock {`bc lal`j`k' l`f` fkz` z`ff`b j`x`z labccqb`f`b f`xkz`g za~yanqz yai`~` lal`j`k" Kbkg`d c`ln`~`b faza~f`kz`b xabzkbc `bz`~` zab`c` fa~m`' f`xkz`g j`b zkbcf`z xabcq`y``b zafbogock" Zkbcf`z xabcq`y``b zafbogock a~`z f`kz`bb{` jabc`b e`fzo~ x~ojqfzkukz`y zoz`g' l`fkb zkbcck xabcq`y``b zafbogock j`b l`fkb fobjqyke kbza~`fyk jk `bz`~` l`y{`~`f`z,ys`yz` l`y{`~`f`z,ys`yz`,xala~kbz`d' ,xala~kbz`d' l`fkb nay`~ xozabyk qbzqf labkbcf`zf`b x~ojqfzkukz`y oqzxqz yq`zq bac`~`"

1

J`g`l xabagkzk`b kbk {`bc `f`b jkf`mk k`g`d “N`c`kl`b` xa~`b f`xkz`g' zab`c` fa~m` j`b xabcq`y``b zafbogock j`g`l yz~qfzq~ afobolk Kbjobayk` ?“" J`g`l J` g`l f`kz`b jabc`b ~qlqy`b xa~l`y`g`d`b `f`b jkf`mk d`g ,d`g yan`c`k na~kfqz= 0+ n`c`kl`b` yz~qfzq~ j`b xa~kg`fq ykyzal xa~afobolk`b Kbjobayk`6 >+ `x` y`m` e`fzo~, e`fzo~,e`fzo~ xabjo~obc xa~zqlnqd`b xa~afobolk`b Kbjobayk`6 j`b 9+ jabc`b lal`d`lk m`s`n`b xa~z`b{``b jk `z`y' n`c`kl`b` yfab`~ko xa~zqlnqd`b `c`~ Kbjobayk` j`x`z labi`x`k ukyk >898" K"9 Zqmq`b Xabagkzk`b

Zqmq`b xabagkzk`b kbk `bz`~` g`kb = lalnq`z lojag yz~qfzq~ xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk Kbjobayk` m`bcf` x`bm`bc qbzqf lalx~ajkfyk xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk fa jax`b cqb` lab{qyqb yfab`~ko labqmq ukyk Kbjobayk` >898' fdqyqyb{` labi`x`k y`y`~`b fq`bzkz`zke xabj`x`z`b xa~ f`xkz` f`xkz` QY* 04"888 xa~ z`dqb" Yag`kb kzq mqc` j`x`z jkfaz`dqk xabc`~qd xa~zqlnqd`b f`xkz`g j`b zab`c` fa~m` za~d`j`x xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk Kbjobayk`" K": Gkbcfqx Xa~l`y`g`d`b

Xa~l`y`g`d`b {`bc jkn`d`y j`g`l xabagkzk`b kbk jkn`z`yk qbzqf lab{qyqb yfab`~ko,yfab`~ko yfab`~ko,yfab`~ko fankm`f`b afobolk qbzqf labjqfqbc xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk Kbjobayk` labqmq ukyk Kbjobayk` >898" Xal`d`l`b `z`y yz~qfzq~ afobolk jkg`fqf`b jabc`b xalojag`b ykyzal {`bc jkn`bcqb j`~k ya~`bcf`k`b x~oyay zk~q`b jqbk` b{`z`" Lag`gqk xal`d`l`b `z`y xa~kg`fq ykyzal {`bc zkj`f jkkbckbf`b `f`b jkzalqf`b xkgkd`b yfab`~ko fankm`f`b {`bc j`x`z labcq~`bck `z`q j`g`l fobjkyk {`bc zkj`f fkz` kbckbf`b' yadkbcc` fkz` j`x`z laln`bcqb yq`zq yz~qfzq~ afobolk {`bc fofod j`b l`lxq lalnklnkbc fkz` fa `~`d {`bc fkz` ikz`,ikz`f`b" ikz`, ikz`f`b" K"1 Lazojogock Xabagkzk`b

Xabagkzk`b jklqg`k nqg`b Mqgk >884 jabc`b lag`fqf`b xabcqlxqg`b j`z`, j`z` xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk Kbjobayk`" J`z`,j`z` {`bc jkfqlxqgf`b `bz`~` g`kb= j`z` XJN $X~ojqf Jolayzkf N~qzo+' mqlg`d zab`c` fa~m` j`b mqlg`d kbuayz`yk" Lazojogock jkb`lkf` ykyzal $y{yzal j{b`lkiy+ jkcqb`f`b qbzqf lab{qyqb yz~qfzq~ xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk Kbjobayk` m`bcf` x`bm`bc j`b la~qlqyf`b yfab`~ko,yfab`~ko yfab`~ko,yfab`~ko cqb` labi`x`k xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk {`bc jkd`~`xf`b" Fal`lxq`b y{yzal j{b`lkiy j`g`l lalx~ayabz`ykf`b yz~qfzq~ j`b xa~kg`fq

5

ykyzal ya~z` fal`lxq`b yklqg`ykb{` qbzqf lalx~ajkfyk l`y` jax`b la~qx`f`b e`fzo~ xabzkbc xalkgkd`b y{yzal j{b`lkiy yan`c`k lazojogock xabagkzk`b" Yaxa~zk {`bc zag`d jkq~`kf`b yanagqlb{`' fal`lxq`b lalx~ayabz`ykf`b kbza~`fyk

y{yzal

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j`b E`fzo~ X~ojqfzkukz`y Zoz`g $ZXE+ mqc`

la~qx`f`b `g`y`b g`kb {`bc jk`bcc`x xabzkbc" Kbza~`fyk jkb`lky

j`b ZXE

l`lxq laln`bzq fkz` lag`fqf`b xabjaf`z`b xabjaf`z`b {`bc jkb`lky j`b lab{agq~qd qbzqf lal`d`lk yz~qfzq~ xa~afobolk`b fkz` yadkbcc` j`x`z labcab`gk fagankd`b j`b fagal`d`b xa~afobolk`b fkz`" G`bcf`d,g`bcf`d G`bcf`d,g`bcf`d `b`gkyky `j`g`d yan`c`k na~kfqz kbk= 0+ labag``d e`fzo~,e`fzo~ xa~zqlnqd`b Kbjobayk`" Za~l`yqf xabc`~qd yafzo~ fobyqlyk' xala~kbz`d' klxo~ j`b afyxo~ za~d`j`x xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk" Za~l`yqf labcf`mk xa~`b f`xkz`g j`b mqlg`d zab`c` fa~m` Kbjobayk`6 >+ lalnq`z

lojag

y{yzal

j{b`lkiy

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labcc`ln`~f`b

yz~qfzq~

xa~afobolk`b Kbjobayk`6 j`b 9+ d`ykg yklqg`yk lojag {`bc jknq`z jk `z`y jkn`bjkbcf`b jabc`b j`z` `fzq`g xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk Kbjobayk`" Mkf` jkzalqf`b fay`l``b' l`f` lojag yag`bmqzb{` jkcqb`f`b qbzqf lalx~ajkfyk xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk fa jax`b jabc`b yamqlg`d yfab`~ko" Yfab`~ko xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk fa jax`b jkn q`z na~j`y`~f`b zag``d nqzk~ 0 jk `z`y" K"5 Ykyzal`zkf` Xabqgky`b

N`n K za~jk~k `z`y g`z`~ nag`f`bc' xa~qlqy`b l`y`g`d' zqmq`b xabagkzk`b' gkbcfqx xa~l`y`g`d`b' lazojogock xabagkzk`b j`b ykyzal`zkf` xabqgky`b {`bc `f`b lalna~k n`z`y j`b `~`d`b j`g`l zayky kbk" N`n KK labi`fqx fobyax,fobyax kglq afobolk' y{yzal j{b`lkiy j`b ukyk >898 {`bc labm`jk j`y`~ xabqgky`b zayky kbk" N`n KKK `f`b labcq~`kf`b zabz`bc lazojogock xabagkzk`b {`bc `f`b labm`jk cqkjagkbay j`g`l x~oyay xabagkzk`b zayky kbk' yaj`bcf`b N`n KU labcq~`kf`b

c`ln`~`b qlql xa~afobolk`b Kbjobayk` j`b lojag j`y`~ {`bc jkcqb`f`b j`g`l xabagkzk`b kbk" N`n U la~qx`f`b z`d`x`b yklqg`yk' `b`gkyky j`b xaln`d`y`b xa~kg`fq lojag qbzqf yalq` yfab`~ko fankm`f`b" N`n UK na~kyk fayklxqg`b j`b y`~`b j`~k d`ykg yklqg`yk j`b `b`gkyky fankm`f`b"

3

N@N KK G@BJ@Y@B XQYZ@F@ KK"0 Xabca~zk`b X~ojqf Jolayzkf N~qzo $XJN+

Fack`z`b

afobolk yai`~` c`~ky nay`~b{` j`x`z j`x`z jkcogobcf`b jkcogobcf`b j`g`l j`g`l fack`z`b

x~ojqfyk j`b fobyqlyk n`~`bc j`b m`y`" Yamqlg`d xa~qy`d``b lalx~ojqfyk n`~`bc j`b m`y` {`bc labcd`ykgf`b xabj`x`z`b {`bc jkza~kl` ogad e`fzo~, e`fzo~ x~ojqfyk {`bc jklkgkfk ogad na~n`c`k cogobc`b j`g`l l`y{`~`f`z' yadkbcc` j`~k xabj`x`z`b kbk l`y{`~`f`z `f`b lalnagk n`~`bc j`b m`y` n`kf qbzqf faxa~gq`b fobyqlyk l`qxqb kbuayz`yk" F`~ab` kzq' bkg`k x~ojqf `fdk~ j`~k n`~`bc j`b m`y` {`bc jkx~ojqfyk yq`zq cogobc`b `f`b y`l` jabc`b xabj`x`z`b {`bc jkza~kl` ogad cogobc`b, cogobc`b g`kb j`g`l l`y{`~`f`z j`b `f`b y`l` xqg` jabc`b mqlg`d xabcagq`~`b ogad na~n`c`k cogobc`b j`g`l l`y{`~`f`z" @z`y x~kbykx j`y`~ jk `z`y l`f` XJN {`bc jkj`y`~f`b mqlg`d x~ojqfyk' XJN na~j`y`~f`b mqlg`d xabj`x`z`b j`b XJN na~j`y`~f`b mqlg`d xabcagq`~`b yanab`~b{` y`l`" D`b{` i`~` lagkd`zb{` y`m` {`bc na~naj` = F`g`q jkzkbm`q j`~k yack x~ojqfyk' XJN `j`g`d la~qx`f`b mqlg`d bkg`k x~ojqf `fdk~ `z`q bkg`k z`ln`d j`~k n`~`bc j`b m`y` {`bc jkd`ykgf`b ogad qbkz, qbkz x~ojqfyk {`bc jklkgkfk ogad yq`zq bac`~` j`g`l m`bcf` s`fzq za~zabzq" Jkzkbm`q j`~k yack xabj`x`z`b' XJN `j`g`d la~qx`f`b mqlg`d xabj`x`z`b {`bc jkza~kl` ogad e`fzo~ x~ojqfyk {`bc jklkgkfk ogad yagq~qd l`y{`~`f`z jk yq`zq bac`~` j`g`l m`bcf` s`fzq za~zabzq" XJN {`bc jkdkzqbc na~j`y`~f`b mqlg`d xabcagq`~`b fobyqlyk fayagq~qd`b l`y{`~`f`z jkyq`zq bac`~` jkb`l`f`b XJN `z`y xabcagq`~`b" Dqnqbc`b `bz`~` XJN jk `z`y j`x`z jk~qlqyf`b j`g`l xa~y`l``b na~kfqz' XJN `z`y x~ojqfyk < XJN `z`y xabj`x`z`b < XJN `z`y xabcagq`~`b" J`g`l eo~l`z g`xo~`bb{`' XJN jky`mkf`b > nabzqf bkg`k zqf`~ {`kzq XJN `z`y d`~c` fobyz`b $CJX `z iobyz`bz x~kiay+ j`b XJN `z`y d`~c` na~g`fq $ CJX `z iq~~abz x~kiay iq~~abz x~kiay+" XJN `z`y d`~c` fobyz`b `j`g`d XJN {`bc jkdkzqbc `z`y d`~c` j`y`~ x`j` z`dqb {`bc zag`d jkzaz`xf`b $yz`bj`~ kbza~b`ykob`g lalxa~y{`~`zf`b z`dqb j`y`~ XJN

4

d`~qy jkckz 8 `z`q 1' lky`g z`dqb j`y`~ >888 j`b >881+" XJN `z`y d`~c` na~g`fq jkzaz`xf`b na~j`y`~f`b d`~c` z`dqb na~m`g`b" Xa~n`bjkbc`b `bz`~` XJN d`~c` na~g`fq j`b XJN d`~c` fobyz`b j`x`z jkx`f`k yan`c`k kbjkf`zo~ qlzqf lagkd`z zkbcf`z kbeg`yk `z`q jaeg`yk {`bc za~m`jk $jaeg`zo~ XJN+" Xab{`mk`b XJN yai`~` yafzo~`g j`x`z lalxa~gkd`zf`b yz~qfzq~ afobolk jk skg`{`d kzq" Nkg` `bcf` XJN jkn`bjkbcf`b jabc`b mqlg`d zab`c` fa~m`' `z`q mqlg`d kbxqz {`bc jkcqb`f`b' `f`b j`x`z labcc`ln`~f`b zkbcf`z x~ojqfzkekz`y yai`~` yafzo~`g l`qxqb lab{agq~qd" Yam`f z`dqb >88:' NXY lalxqngkf`ykf`b xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk j`b bkg`k XJN `z`y j`y`~ d`~c` fobyz`b >888 $yanagqlb{` labccqb`f`b d`~c` fobyz`b 0;;9+ qbzqf labmag`yf`b xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk {`bc gankd ~a`gkyzky j`b lalxa~gkd`zf`b xa~qn`d`b yz~qfzq~ afobolk za~fkbk" Bkg`k XJN `z`y d`~c` fobyz`b z`dqb >888 gankd zkbcck j`~kx`j` xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk `z`y j`y`~ d`~c` fobyz`b 0;;9" Yan`c`k iobzod' bkg`k XJN x`j` z`dqb >889 `z`y j`y`~ d`~c` fobyz`b 0;;9 yanay`~ ^x" :::":19'1 lkg{`~ `z`q zqlnqd yanay`~ :'08 xa~yab mkf` jkn`bjkbcf`b z`dqb >88>" Yalabz`~` bkg`k XJN x`j` z`dqb >889 `z`y j`y`~ d`~c` fobyz`b >888 labm`jk ^x" 0"13;"114'; lkg{`~ `z`q zqlnqd yanay`~ :'10 xa~yab" C`ln`~ >"0 labckgqyz~`ykf`b XJN `z`y d`~c` fobyz`b 0;;9 j`b >888" 9"888"888

>"188"888

XJN d`~c` na~g`fq $^x"nkggkob+

XJN >888<088 $^x"nkggkob+ >"888"888

XJN 0;;9<088 $^x"nkggkob+

0"188"888

0"888"888

188"888

8 0;;8 0;;0 0;;> 0;;9 0;;: 0;;1 0;;5 0;;3 0;;4 0;;; >888 >880 >88> >889 >88: >881

C`ln`~ >"0 XJN d`~c` fobyz`b 0;;9 % >888 j`b XJN d`~c` na~g`fq

;

XJN {`bc jky`mkf`b j`g`l nabzqf ba~ì` `f`b labcc`ln`~f`b n`c`kl`b` n`~`bc j`b m`y` kzq jk x~ojqfyk' jk fobyqlyk' jk kbuayz`ykf`b l`qxqb jk afyxo~' j`b n`c`kl`b` yqlna~,yqlna~ xalnk`{``b za~d`j`x fobyqlyk' kbuayz`yk l`qxqb afyxo~ `z`q klxo~" Jabc`b jalkfk`b fkz` j`x`z lal`d`lk n`ds` `bcf`,`bcf` {`bc jky`mkf`b ogad XJN j`x`z labcc`ln`~f`b fobjkyk afobolk {`bc za~m`jk' n`kf labcab`k yz~qfzq~ afobolk jk l`y` g`gq' fa`j``b {`bc yaj`bc na~m`g`b l`qxqb falqbcfkb`b, falqbcfkb`b jkl`y` {`bc `f`b j`z`bc" Jabc`b jalkfk`b XJN na~eqbcyk yan`c`k= Kbjkf`zo~ xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk6 Kbjkf`zo~ xa~zqlnqd`b xabj`x`z`b xa~ f`xkz`6 Kbjkf`zo~ kbeg`yk j`b jaeg`yk6 Kbjkf`zo~ yz~qfzq~ xa~afobolk`b6 Kbjkf`zo~ dqnqbc`b `bz`~ yafzo~" F`~ab` kzq XJN lab{`mkf`b j`z`,j`z` {`bc y`bc`z na~cqb` mkf` fkz` kbckb lag`fqf`b xa~abi`b``b afobolk $m`bcf` xabjaf `z`q m`bcf` x`bm`bc+ `z`q qbzqf labkg`k fankm`f`b afobolk yq`zq bac`~`" KK"0"> Nana~`x` Kbjkf`zo~ Afobolk

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08

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09

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ygkja 00

C`ln`~ >"9 Y{yzal J{b`lkiy yan`c`k yq`zq lazoj` X~oe" Modb J" Yza~l`b j`g`l `~zkfagb{` na~mqjqg ‗ @gg Lojagy `~a S~obc= “ labcalqf`f`b f`~`fza~kyzkf, âegaizkoby ob Naiolkbc ` Y{yzal Yikabzkyz f`~`fza~kyzkf {`bc jklkgkfk y{yzal j{b`lkiy `bz`~` g`kb= 0+ Labc`bjqbc j`y`~,j`y`~ l`zal`zkf` {`bc x`j`z j`b agac`b qbzqf lalnq`z j`b labcaln`bcf`b yq`zq lojag" >+ Labc`bjqbc xabca~zk`b Y{yzal Zdkbfkbc j`b Lojagkbc Iolxgat So~gj " Jabc`b f`z` g`kb y{yzal j{b`lkiy jk`s`gk jabc`b xalkfk~`b n`c`kl`b` yan`kfb{` yan`kfb{` fa~m` yanq`d ykyzal j`b `x` y`m` qbyq~,qbyq~ {`bc za~j`x`z j`g`l yanq`d ykyzal na~y`l` faza~f`kz`b `bz`~ qbyq~b{`" N`~q yazag`d kzq fkz` j`x`z lalnq`z xabjaf`z`b lojag j`~k jqbk` b{`z` qbzqf lalai`df`b l`y`g`d" 9+ Y{yzal J{b`lkiy `j`g`d `g`z $zoog+ qbzqf qbzqf laln`bzq xabc`lnkg fankm`f`b qbzqf lalai`df`b l`y`g`d xabzkbc" :+ Y{yzal J{b`lkiy j`x`z jkcqb`f`b n`b{`f f`g`bc`b jabc`b na~n`c`k g`z`~ nag`f`bc jkykxgkb kglq" N`kf {`bc na~g`z`~ nag`f`bc kglq yoyk`g l`qxqb kglq zafbkf" 1+ Y{yzal J{b`lkiy labc`m`f fkz` qbzqf na~xkfk~ ioqbza~kbzqkzkua $zkj`f laba~kl` nackzq y`m` yanq`d lojag ykyzal {`bc jkn`bcqb ogad o~`bc g`kb/jk~k fkz` yabjk~k" S`g`qxqb o~`bc g`kb kzq `j`g`d yao~`bc `dgk+" Na~xkfk~

>9

ioqbza~kbzqkzkua `f`b labcaln`bcf`b labz`g lojag yadkbcc` fkz` l`lxq

lagkd`z xa~l`y`g`d`b yai`~` lab{agq~qd $dogkyzkf+ j`b zkj`f lagkd`z xa~l`y`g`d`b yai`~` yx`yk`g $yaxozobc, $yaxozobc ,xozobc+" 5+ Qbzqf labkbcf`zf`b fal`lxq`b fkz` j`g`l lalnq`z yanq`d lojag $lojagkbc ` iolxgat so~gj +' +' jkxa~gqf`b xal`d`l`b y{yzal zdkbfkbc" [`kzq fal`lxq`b fal`lxq`b lagkd`z yanq`d jqbk` yan`c`k ykyzal {`bc folxgafy j`b lal`d`lk n`c`kl`b` yalq` fobafykz`y qbyq~,qbyq~ {`bc `j` jkj`g`lb{`" Y{yzal zdkbfkbc lagkxqzk xal`d`l`b zabz`bc yzoif % egosy $f`x`ykz`y j`b

`gk~`b+' zkla jag`{y $s`fzq zqbj`+' bobgkba`~kz`y' y{yzal noqbj`~{ j`b eaajnìf "

3+ Xalai`d`b l`y`g`d j`g`l y{yzal j{b`lkiy labcc`nqbcf`b yalq` `yxaf kglq xabcaz`dq`b za~l`yqf jk`bz`~`b{` kglq zafbkf' yoyk`g' afobolk j`b afogock" Xabcc`nqbc`b jkxa~gqf`b f`~ab` ~a`g so~gj la~qx`f`b kbza~`fyk j`~k yalq` kglq {`bc jkfab`g jkfab`g ogad l`bqyk`" X~oeayyo~ Modb J" Yza~l`b mqc` lab{`z`f`b

‗ Mkf` yao~`bc ykyzal

lojaga~ l`lxq lalnq`z yanq`d ykyzal {`bc n`kf l`f` zkj`f `f`b zdkbfa~ / lojaga~

za~m`jk xogki{ ~aykyz`bia j`b ykja aeeaizy" [`bc `j` d`b{`g`d aeaf nk`y` $fam`jk`b {`bc nky` fkz` xa~fk~`f`b+ xa~fk~`f`b+ “" `" Jkb`lki Jkb`lki Iolxgatkz{' Eaajnìf j`b Xogki{ âykyz`b ia

Fal`lxq`b labz`g fkz` qbzqf qbzqf lag`fqf`b xalojag`b ykyzal b{`z` $lojagkbc ` iolxgat so~gj + y`bc`z za~n`z`y' kbfobykyzab j`b zkj`f j`x`z jk`bj`gf`b" Zkbj`f`b fkz` yad`~k,d`~k ya~kbc jkj`y`~f`b `z`y xa~yxafzke {`bc yalxkz j`b na~yke`z m`bcf` xabjaf" X~oeayyo~ Modb J" Yza~l`b mqc` lab{`z`f`b n`ds` xal`d`l`b {`bc j`bcf`g `f`b yanq`d ykyzal' yqjqz x`bj`bc/ xa~yxafzke {`bc yalxkz j`b xalai`d`b l`y`g`d {`bc auabz o~kabzaj ya~z` xal`d`l`b {`bc ~abj`d zabz`bc eaajnìf `f`b lab{an`nf`b za~m`jkb{` xogki{ ~aykyz`bia j`b ykja aeeaizy $aeaf,aeaf y`lxkbc+ {`bc ya~kbcf`gk zkj`f `z`q za~g`ln`z qbzqf jk`bzkykx`yk" Xogki{ ~aykyz`bia jkjaekbkykf`b yan`c`k faiabj~qbc`b yq`zq ykyzal qbzqf jag`{+ `z`y `fyk {`bc jkna~kf`b lalna~kf`b ~a`fyk $n`kf yafazkf` l`qxqb zqbj`/ jag`{

fax`j` yq`zq ykyzal" N`df`b yanq`d ykyzal mqc` j`x`z lalna~kf`b ~a`fyk

>:

lag`s`b $labc`g`df`b+ yq`zq `fyk {`bc jkna~kf`b fax`j` ykyzal za~yanqz" Xogki{ ~aykyz`bia j`x`z labklnqgf`b ykja aeeaiz {`bc zkj`f `z`q za~g`ln`z qbzqf

jk`bzkykx`yk" Iobzod Xogki{ ~aykyz`bia j`b ykja aeeaiz=

xab{alx~oz`b d`l` $ya~`bcc` xa~qy`f z`b`l`b+ jabc`b xayzkykj` jkfalqjk`b d`~k lalnq`z ya~`bcc` za~yanqz yal`fkb ~aykyz`b $nì`=fan`g+ za~d`j`x xayzkykj` kzq yabjk~k" âykyz`byk ya~`bcc` za~d`j`x xayzkykj` za~yanqz jkb`l`f`b mqc` aeaf y`lxkbc $ykja aeeaizy+" Qbzqf laln`bcqb lojag y{yzal j{b`lkiy {`bc qzqd j`b d`bj`g' fkz` d`~qy lal`d`lk f`~`fza~kykzkf {`bc jklkgkfk y{yzal j{b`lkiy" F`~`fza~kyzkf kbk za~f`bjqbc

j`g`l

f`gkl`z

folxgafykz`y

jkb`lky

$j{b`lki

iolxgatkz{+"

Folxgafykz`y yanq`d y{yzal j{b`lkiy yag`gq na~faln`bc jkyan`nf`b e`fzo~, e`fzo~ yan`c`k na~kfqz= Y{yzal j{b`lkiy yag`gq na~qn`d yazk`x s`fzq"

@fzo~, @fzo~,`fzo~ {`bc `j` j`g`l ykyzal y`gkbc na~kbza~`fyk jabc`b jkb`lky" âbz`b za~d`j`x eaajnìf " @fyk {`bc fkz` g`fqf`b x`j` y`zq `fzo~ `f`b lalxabc`~qdk zkbcf`d g`fq `fzo~,`fzo~ g`kb j`g`l ykyzal" Kbk jkf`~ab`f`b `bz`~ `fzo~ za~m`jk kbza~`fyk {`bc jkb`lky j`b fq`z" Bobgkba`~kz`y" â`fyk {`bc jkna~kf`b yanq`d ykyzal $`z`y yq`zq `fyk+ ya~kbcf`gk zkj`f na~yke`z x~oxo~ykob`g" Ioqbza~kbzqkzkua" Dqnqbc`b yan`n `fkn`z ya~kbc zkj`f za~m`jk j`g`l s`fzq

{`bc na~jaf`z`b" F`j`bc,f`j`bc yq`zq `fyk labklnqgf`b ~a`fyk {`bc m`~`f s`fzqb{` y`bc`z g`l`" Xogki{ ~aykyz`bia" Jkza~`bcf`b j`g`l n`d`y`b x`j` x` j` d`g`l`b na~kfqzb{`" n" Auabz O~kabzaj

Xogki{ ~aykyz`bia mqc` za~m`jk f`~ab` fkz` lagkd`z n`ds` yq`zq ykyzal na~yke`z auabz o~kabzaj " Auabz o~kabzaj k`g`d xal`d`l`b n`ds` yq`zq l`y`g`d jkyan`nf`b

ogad yq`zq l`y`g`d j`g`l q~qz`b yan`n `fkn`z" Kbk j`x`z lab{ay`zf`b fkz`" Ykyzal zkj`f na~a`fyk yafqabyk`g' ykyzal j`x`z na~a`fyk yai`~` na~y`l``b $qbyq~, qbyq~ yq`zq ykyzal na~a`fyk na~y`l``b za~d`j`x yq`zq `fyk+ yadkbcc` lazoja

>1

auabz o~kabzaj nqf`bg`d lazoja {`bc ioiof qbzqf lalai`df`b l`y`g`d jqbk`

b{`z` {`bc folxgafykz`yb{` zkbcck j`b na~yke`z zkj`f gk ba`~" i" Atocaboqy j`b Zkla Jag`{y

Qbyq~ {`bc na~`j` j`g`l yanq`d ykyzal jkb`l`f`b Abjocaboqy j`b yan`gkfb{` jkb`l`f`b Atocaboqy" F`~ab`

za~n`z`yb{`

xal`d`l`b

`f`b

yanq`d

ykyzal'

fkz`

j`x`z

y`m`

labccogobcf`b yanq`d $`z`q gankd+ qbyq~ yan`c`k atocaboqy $f`~ab` nky` y`m` yq`zq qbyq~ {`bc x`j` y``z fkz` laln`bcqb lojag zkj`f `j` dqnqbc`b jabc`b lojag {`bc fkz` nq`z f`~ab` qbyq~, qbyq~,qbyq~ za~yanqz lalxqb{`k zkla jag`{+" Zkla jag`{y jkjaekbkykf`b yan`c`k zabcc`bc s`fzq `bz`~` yq`zq `fyk jabc`b

~a`fyk/aeaf j`g`l yanq`d ykyzal" J`g`l `~zk`b qbyq~ za~yanqz lalxqb{`k yke`z labqbj` xabck~kl`b eaajnìf fax`j` yanq`d ykyzal j`g`l m`bcf` s`fzq za~zabzq" X`j`d`g mkf` y``zb{` zkn`' qbyq~ {`bc yalqg` atocaboqy na~qn`d labm`jk abjocaboqy j`b lalna~kf`b eaajnìf {`bc xosa~eqg" Zkla jag`{y mqc` labc`nq~f`b x`bj`bc`b fkz` `f`b yanq`d ykyzal {`bc na~qmqbc

`j`b{` xa~naj``b `bz`~` d`ykg {`bc fkz` kbckbf`b jabc`b d`ykg b{`z` $jkyi~ax`bikay nazsaab jayk~aj ~ayqgz `bj ìzq`g ~ayqgz +" +" j" Yzoif `bj Egosy

Xal`d`l`b zabz`bc Yzoif `bj Egosy y`bc`z xabzkbc j`g`l fa~`bcf` fa~m` y{yzal j{b`lkiy" J`g`l fab{`z``bb{` n`b{`f l`d`ykys` x`yi`~y`~m`b` $za~l`yqf

y`~m`b` zafbkf+ c`c`g lalna~kf`b m`s`n`b nab`~ j`g`l f`yqy n`zdzqn" Yzoif j`b Egosy na~qn`d yag`gq na~qn`d yam`g`b jabc`b s`fzq" Yzoif na~`~zk

zalx`z `fqlqg`yk l`za~k j`b/`z`q kbeo~l`yk j`g`l yanq`d lojag yaj`bcf`b Egos lab{`z`f`b ~`z`, ~`z`,~`z` `gk~`b l`za~k j`b/`z`q kbeo~l`yk" a"

Y{yzal Noqbj`~{ $N`z`y Ykyzal+ Y{yzal Noqbj`~{ j`g`l jqbk` b{`z` jknq`z qbzqf labcq~`bck folxgafykz`y

l`y`g`d" Y{yzal noqbj`~{ mqc` jkxa~gqf`b j`b f`j`bc zkj`f j`x`z jkdkbj`~f`b" B`lqb j`g`l laln`bcqb yq`zq lojag $ jabc`b x~kbykx y{yzal j{b`lkiy +' fkz` d`~qy lalxa~gq`y y{yzal noqbj`~{ za~yanqz jabc`b x~kbykx y{yzal j{b`lkiy" J`b d`b{` lag`fqf`b y{yzal noqbj`~{ qbzqf laleofqyf`b xab{agay`k`b l`y`g`d nqf`b qbzqf lab{aja~d`b`f`b l`y`g`d" l`y`g`d "

>5

KK":": @xgkf`yk, @xgkf`yk,`xgkf`yk Y{yzal J{b`lkiy Y{yzal J{b`lkiy fkbk yqj`d jk`xgkf`ykf`b j`g`l na~n`c`k nkj`bc fadkjqx`b" Fkz`

`f`b labcc`ln`~f`b nana~`x` jk`bz`~` iobzod `xgkf`yk Y{yzal J{b`lkiy {`bc l`lxq labmag`yf`b fa`lxqd`b y{yzal j{b`lkiy" o

Yklqg`yk Xo~zoeogko" Yq`zq lojag xo~zoeogko {`bc za~fab`g `j`g`d >t> lojag

NIC' {`bc labcc`ln`~f`b x`bcy` x`y`~ ~ag`zke jk yqlnq,t j`b xa~zqlnqd`b x`y`~ jk yqlnq,{" Lojag NIC `j`g`d yz`zky j`b labcdkg`bcf`b qlx`b n`gkf j`g`l xa~qlqy`b,xa~qlqy`b fankm`f`bb{`" Lojag NIC NIC j`g`l nabzqf y{yzal j{b`lkiy jknq`z ogad La~za~b' Gõeega~' j`b Skajl`bb $0;43+ l`lxq

labckjabzkekf`yk fafq~`bc`b,fafq~`bc`b lojag NIC {`bc xa~z`l`" La~af` labqbmqff`b labqbmqff`b n`c`kl`b` j`b labc`x` fankm`f`b NIC c`c`g fazkf` xay`kbc, xay`kbc labc`joxyk z`bcc`x`b,z`bcc`x`b zkj`f g`}kl" Y{yzal J{b`lkiy l`lxq labqbmqff`b xa~kg`fq folxazkzke jkb`lky j`~k xa~qy`d``b $n`bjkbcf`b jabc`b d`ykg lojag NIC yz`zky {`bc d`b{` lab`lxkgf`b xa~kg`fq yz`zky xa~qy`d``b+" o

Xabcaln`bc`b X~ojqf" @j` e`fzo~,e`fzo~ xabzkbc {`bc lababzqf`b lqzq

yq`zq x~ojqf j`b fal`lxq`b zkl j`g`l lalabqdk zabcc`z s`fzq x~ojqfyk" Yq`zq kyq {`bc f~kzky `j`g`d lab{agay`kf`b xafa~m``b {`bc d`~qy jkyagay`kf`b j`b labc`bzykx`yk xa~l`y`g`d`b {`bc zkj`f za~jqc`" Kyq f~kzky g`kbb{` `j`g`d kbza~`fyk,kbza~`fyk kbza~`fyk,kbza~`fyk `bz`~` x~oyay j`b yz~qfzq~,yz~qfzq~ ekykf yaxa~zk l`bqe`fzq~kbc x~ojqf jk x`n~kf" âxabbkbc j`b Yza~l`b $0;;3+ jabc`b Y{yzal J{b`lkiy l`lxq labqbmqff`b n`ds` fazkj`fykbf~ob`b $ `y{bid~obki`y+ x~oyay,x~oyay kbk labmq~qy fax`j` jkyeqbcyk xa~eo~l`byk o~c`bky`yk $ j{yeqbizkob`g o~c`bk}`zkob`g xa~eo~l`bia+" o

M`~kbc`b Yqxg`k $Yqxx{ Id`kb+" Uog`zkgkz`y yq`zq m`~kbc`b yqxg`k `j`g`d

l`y`g`d {`bc xabzkbc n`ck yq`zq xa~qy`d``b" L`y`g`d L `y`g`d yqxxg{ id`kb kbk j`x`z labklx` yazk`x mabky nkybky n`kf {`bc fafq~`bc`b xa~yajk``b' `z`q la~af` lalxqb{`k xa~yajk``b x~ojqf lagklx`d jk cqj`bc" Jabc`b y{yzal j{b`lkiy' l`y`g`d yqxxg{ id`kb j`x`z jkxai`df`b jabc`b d`ykg zkbcf`z xa~yajk``b x`j` l`ykbc,l`ykbc l`ykbc,l`ykbc g`bcf`d m`~kbc`b yqxg`k j`b xa~kg`fqb{` {`bc jkb`lky j`x`z jkzk~qf`b jabc`b fazax`z`b {`bc gq`~ nk`y` $Yza~l`b >888+" Yag`kb `xgkf`yk jk`z`y' y{yzal j{b`lkiy mqc` jkcqb`f`b qbzqf labag``d l`y`g`d l`f~oafobolk yaxa~zk {`bc jkg`fqf`b Modb S" S" Dkbay j`b B`zd`b Ng`k~ Eo~~ayza~"

>3

Modb S Dkbay na~d`ykg lalxa~fk~`f`b xa~kg`fq yqfq nqbc` jabc`b lalojagf`b ykyzal l`f~oafobolk @la~kf` Ya~kf`z jabc`b y{yzal j{b`lkiy" Yaj`bcf`b B`zd`b N Eo~~ayza~ $Eo~~ayza~' 0;;9+ lalnq`z lojag qbzqf {`bc labcc`ln`~f`b egqfzq`yk egqfzq`yk oqzxqz @la~kf` Ya~kf`z j`b mqc` labcqmk na~n`c`k xabc`~qd fankm`f`b xala~kbz`d $ekyf`g j`b lobaza~+ za~d`j`x qbmqf xa~afobolk`b @la~kf` Ya~kf`z" KK"1 Ukyk Kbjobayk` >898

Bac`~` L`mq {`bc Qbccqg j`g`l Xabcagog``b Faf`{``b @g`l Jkzox`bc ogad alx`z xabi`x`k`b qz`l`' {`kzq= L`yqf j`g`l 1 nay`~ fafq`z`b afobolk jqbk`' jabc`b xabj`x`z`b xa~f`xkz` yanay`~ QY* 04 ~knq xa~ z`dqb6 Xal`be``z`b faf`{``b `g`l {`bc na~fag`bmqz`b6 Xa~sqmqj`b fq`gkz`y dkjqx loja~ab {`bc la~`z` $ yd`~aj c~oszd+6 Labc`bz`~f`b yajkfkzb{` 98 xa~qy`d``b Kbjobayk` j`g`l jèz`~ Eo~zqba188 Iolx`bkay"

Ukyk >898= Bac`~` L`mq [`bc Qbccqg J`g`l Xabcagog``b Faf`{``b @g`l F`z` fqbik ukyk za~yanqz k`g`d bac`~` l`mq j`b xabcagog``b faf`{``b `g`l" `g`l " Fajq`b{` jkmag`yf`b jk n`s`d kbk" Bac`~` L`mq" Kbjobayk` Kbjobayk` `f`b labi`x`k xabj`x`z`b xa~ f`xkz` yanay`~ QY* 04 ~knq {`bc labalx`zf`b Kbjobayk` Kbjobayk` j`g`l gkl` nay`~ xa~afobolk`b jqbk`' j`b ~ax~ayabz`yk fagolxof qy`d` {`bc za~falqf` jk jqbk`" Y``z kbk Kbjobayk` na~`j` x`j` fagolxof bac`~` na~xabj`x`z`b lababc`d fa n`s`d n`s`d $gosa~ lkjjga kbiola+" Xoykyk kbk `f`b za~qy na~z`d`b dkbcc` z`dqb >801 j`b yazag`d kzq Kbjobayk` l`yqf yan`c`k bac`~` na~xabj`x`z`b lababc`d fa `z`y $qxxa~ lkjjga kbiola+" X~oyay kbjqyz~k`gky`yk `f`b labm`jk f`z`gky`zo~ `fqlqg`yk loj`g labqmq bac`~` l`mq jabc`b fobz~knqyk za~nay`~ j`~k yafzo~ m `y`"

>4

C`ln`~ >": XJN Xa~ F`xkz` Kbjobayk`' 0;;8 , >898 Yqlna~= X~o{afyk [KE Jabc`b labc`yqlykf`b xa~zqlnqd`b afobolk ~kkg ~`z`,~`z` yanay`~ 3'5> xa~yab xa~ z`dqb' g`mq kbeg`yk ~`z`,~`z` yanay`~ :';1 xa~yab xa~ z`dqb' j`b xa~zqlnqd`b xabjqjqf ~`z`,~`z` yanay`~ 0'0> xa~yab xa~

: z`dqb' l`f` x`j` z`dqb >898

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na~eqbcyk yan`c`k lajk` yzo~`ca xa~qn`d`b {`bc za~m`jk j`g`l yklqg`yk lojag" U`~k`nag kbk y`bc`z xabzkbc f`~ab` xa~qn`d`b,xa~qn`d`b u`~k`nag g`kb jk`fqlqg`ykf`b j`g`l u`~k`nag kbk" Gauag x`j` yq`zq goox d`b{` nky` jkj`dqgqk ogad ~`za' zaz`xk nky` jkkfqzk ogad `qtkgk`~{ `z`q ~`za" Xa~y`l``b Xa~y`l``b ~`za `z`q egos' labcc`ln`~f`b `gk~`b l`za~k `z`q kbeo~l`yk {`bc `j` j`g`l lojag" labcc`ln`~f`b `gk~`b l`za~k `z`q kbeo~l`yk {`bc `j` j`g`l lojag" Bkg`kb{` jkxabc`~qdk ogad kbeo~l`yk,kbeo~l`yk `z`q l`za~k {`bc lag`gqkb{`" Xa~y`l``b `qtkgk`~{' yayq`k jabc`b b`l`b{` xa~y`l``b kbk na~eqbcyk yan`c`k xa~y`l``b n`bzq j`g`l la~qlqyf`b xa~y`l``b ~`za' {`bc jkcqb`f`b qbzqf labjaekbkykf`b e`fzo~,e`fzo~ {`bc lababzqf`b xa~y`l``b ~`za yai`~` za~xky`d"

93

Xa~y`l``b ykykx`b $yqxxgalabz`~{+" Qbzqf lalxa~lqj`d xal`d`l`b zabz`bc zabz`bc lojag' fkz` mqc` j`x`z labi`bzqlf`b xa~y`l``b ykykx`b {`bc jkxa~cqb`f`b qbzqf lalxa~lqj`d xalnì``b lojag " Xa~y`l``b bkg`k `s`g $kbkzk`g u`gqa+' u`~k`nag gauag d`~qy jkzabzqfyb za~gankd j`dqgq bkg`k kbkzk`g,b{` `c`~ j`x`z jkyklqg`ykf`b"Za~f`j`bc bkg`k `s`g ~`za d`~qy za~gankd j`dqgq jkzabzqf`b yanagql ykfgqy xa~z`l` xa~dkzqbc`b xa~y`l``b lojag jkg`fqf`b" @gk~`b l`za~k`g' {`kzq `gk~`b nabj` ekykf j`~k yq`zq u`~k`nag fa u`~k`nag g`kb {`bc xa~xkbj`d`bb{` xa~ s`fzq jkb{`z`f`b j`g`l xa~y`l``b ~`za" @gk~`b kbeo~l`yk' {`kzq yq`zq yz~qfzq~ {`bc na~xa~`b j`g`l eqbcyk, eqbcyk faxqzqy`b {`bc zkj`f lalxabc`~qdk u`~k`nag yai`~` g`bcyqbc" KKK">": Xabcqmk`b j`b Xabcaln`bc`b Lojag `" Xabcqmk`b Lojag

Qbzqf labcaz`dqk fay`dkd`b lojag yan`c`k ~axgkf` ykyzal b{`z`' xa~gq jkg`fqf`b xabcqmk`b lojag" Qmk lojag jkg`fqf`b jabc`b laln`bjkbcf`b xa~kg`fq lojag jabc`b xa~kg`fq ykyzal {`bc yanab`~b{` {`bc jk~ax~ayabz`ykf`b ogad j`z` alxk~kf jk g`x`bc`b" Mkf` xa~n`bjkbc`b d`ykg yklqg`yk lojag lalxqb{`k fayayq`k`b jabc`b j`z` alxk~kf' l`f` lojag j`x`z jkb{`z``f`b yan`c`k ~axgkf` ykyzal b{`z` {`bc n`kf `z`q u`gkj" U`gkj`yk k`g`d x~oyay qbzqf labcqmk fobekjabyk yz~qfzq~ j`b xa~kg`fq lojag yan`c`k yq`zq ~ax~ayabz`yk ykyzal b{`z` {`bc j`x`z jkxa~i`{`" U`gkj`yk jkxa~gqf`b j`g`l qx`{` qbzqf qbzqf laln`bjkbcf`bb{` laln`bjkbcf`bb{` jabc`b xog` xog` ~aea~abyk j`b yai`~` za~qy, laba~qy lalojkekf`yk j`b lalxa~n`kfk yz~qfzq~ lojag" Yq`zq lojag yai`~` yz~qfzq~ j`x`z jkf`z`f`b u`gkj mkf` lojag zkj`f d`b{` j`x`z lalnq`z ~ax~ojqfyk xa~kg`fq ykyzal' `f`b zaz`xk mqc` j`x`z labcqbcf`xf`b n`c`kl`b` ykyzal nafa~m` j`g`l labcd`ykgf`b xa~kg`fq za~yanqz" Ogad f`~ab` kzq lojag j`x`z jkf`z`f`b n`kf mkf` lojag j`x`z lab`ln`d xal`d`l`b za~d`j`x xa~kg`fq ykyzal {`bc jkl`fyqj' lqj`d jkfolqbkf`ykf`b j`b j`x`z labogobc xa~n`kf`b xa~n`kf`b x`j` ykyzal za~yanqz" Nkg` `j` fo~ayxobjabyk `bz`~` lojag j`b ykyzal b{`z`' l`f`lojag {`bc jknq`z j`x`z jkza~kl` yan`c`k yq`zq ~ax~ayabz`yk xa~yo`g`b {`bc y`dkd j`b j`x`z jkcqb`f`b jkcqb`f`b fankm`f`b"

qbzqf `b`gkyky

94

U`gkj`yk lojag j`x`z jkg`fqf`b jabc`b > i`~` {`kzq= U`gkj`yk lag`gqk folx`~`yk c~èkf d`ykg yklqg`yk jabc`b j`z` yz`zkyzkf6 U`gkj`yk mabky kbk jkz`lxkgf`b jabc`b lab{`zqf`b ~ax~ayabz`yk j`z` alxk~kf j`b j`z` d`ykg yklqg`yk j`g`l y`zq c~èkf" U`gkj`yk jabc`b qmk yz`zkyzkf $Zdakg Yz`zkyzkiy+" J`g`l qmk yz`zkyzkf' yz`bj`~ yz`bj`~ {`bc jkcqb`f`b qbzqf labcqfq~ fay`g`d`b `j`g`d ~`z``b fq`j~`z fay`g`d`b $la`b ypq`~a a~~o~6 LYA+' {`bc jkb{`z`f`b jabc`b xa~y`l``b na~kfqz $Yza~l`b' 0;4:+ = b V$Yz ’ @z+/@z\>

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< mqlg`d xabc`l`z`b $z < 0' ‥' b+6

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u 0/b

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~ < YY"Y@ jkl`b`= QL < x~oxo~yk LYA f`~ab` nk`y QY < x~oxo~yk LYA f`~ab` u`~k`b QI < x~oxo~yk LYA f`~ab` fou`~k`b Y˅

< ~`z`, ~`z`,~`z` bkg`k yklqg`yk

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< mqlg`d xabc`l`z`b xabc`l`z`b $z < 0' ‥' b+

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j`b QI

jabc`b bkg`k QL {`bc nay`~'

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na~xozabyk ya~kqy j`b nk`y`b{` la~qx`f`b la~qx`f`b fay`g`d`b j`g`l labcayzkl`yk x`~`laza~" Fay`g`d`b kbk jkf`zaco~kf`b

yan`c`k fay`g`d`b ykyzal`zky

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`z`q bkg`k `fzq`g lalxqb{`k ykfgqy {`bc na~naj` jabc`b bkg`k yklqg`yk" Kbza~x~az`yk `z`y fay`g`d`b kbk y`bc`z jkzabzqf`b ogad zqmq`b lalnq`z lojag" Mkf` lojag jknq`z qbzqf lab{agkjkfk xog` ykfgqy ykyzal' l`f` fay`g`d`b kbk j`x`z jkf`zaco~kf`b yan`c`k fay`g`d`b ykyzal`zky" @f`b zaz`xk `x`nkg` zqmq`b lalnq`z lojag qbzqf labc`b`gky` xa~kg`fq m`bcf` x`bm`bc' l`f` fay`g`d`b kbk zkj`f xabzkbc j`b zkj`f na~yke`z ykyzal`zky" Fay`g`d`b f`~ab` f`~ab` fazkj`fy`l``b fou`~k`b {`bc jkkbjkf`ykf`b jabc`b bkg`k QI

{`bc nay`~'

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D`g kbk

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Bkg`k QI

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nay`~ la~qx`f`b kbjkf`yk za~m`jkb{` za~m`jkb{`

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Xabcqmk`b Xa~kg`fq Lojag

âx~ojqfyk Xa~kg`fq

@bol`gk Xa~kg`fq E`lkg{ Lalna~ Lalna~

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Xabcqmk`b Klxgkf`yk Fankm`f`b

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19

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11

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13

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14

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31

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34

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48

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40

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49

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41

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MENCAPAI VISI 2030: SEBUAH MODEL MAKROEKONOMI INDONESIA DENGAN PEMODELAN SYSTEM DYNAMICS

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