The Organic Yield Yield Gap An independent analysis comparing the 2014 USDA Organic Survey data ith USDA USDA!"ASS !"ASS statistics #or total crop production Steven D$ Savage Savage % Associates &onsulting Applied 'ythology (log $drstevesavage$com
)igh *evel Summary The productivity o# organic agriculture tends to +e loer than that o# conventional$ That is part o# hy there is a need #or a price premium premium to the groer$ groer$ Some have argued that this yield gap can +e closed, +ut the data #rom the latest, detailed, 2014 USDA organic survey suggests that real!orld organic yields are su+stantially loer$ loer$ This analysis is +ased on -.1 crop/geography comparisons representing representing 0 o# all US cropland$ n 4 o# the crop/geography crop/geography comparisons, organic yields ere loer 3 mostly in the 20!0 range$ The rare instances here organic yields ere higher than conventional 56 o# total7 ere overhelmingly #or hay and silage crops 3 not #ood crops$ n order #or the US crop production #rom 2014 to have +een produced as organic ould have re8uired at least 106 million more #armed acres 3 an area e8uivalent to the total par9land and ild lands in the loer 4 states$ Organic remains a very small #raction o# the US cropland +ase 5:0$447 and so it puts a limited strain on land!use$ That said, the concept o# ;only ;only organic< is untena+le #rom an environmental perspective$
(ac9ground and 'ethodology •
•
•
•
=eriodically, the USDA conducts a detailed survey o# the US organic industry including data on the acreage, yield, and price o# organic crop production$ Such surveys have +een conducted in 2014, 200$ Organic data is availa+le at the state level #or a large num+er o# crops in a summary on the USDA e+site$ Similar data is collected each year +y surveying a su+s et o# all groers, and these num+ers are availa+le through the >uic9stats2$0 e+site, also #rom USDA!"ASS$ The USDA does not pu+lish a comparison o# these to categories, so in 2006 and again this year have underta9en to ma9e such a comparison$ "ot all crop/state com+inations are availa+le availa+le #or the analysis$ Sometimes the minor crops in a state are are not even trac9ed in the overall USDA data$ data$ ?or +oth the general and organic survey, i# the num+er o# #arms reporting is too small, the num+ers are not disclosed so that in#ormation a+out speci@c entities are shielded$ Some crops are only trac9ed at the nationide level 5usually hen one or a #e states dominate the production7$ ven ith these limitations, it as possi+le to @nd -.1 good comparisons 5-B at the state level and 1 #or small crops at the national level e$g$ e$g$ cotton, tangerinesC7$ These represented represented total cropland acres, acres, 0 o# the US total$ 'any academic studies have +een done com paring organic and conventional production methods, and several meta!analyses have +een pu+lished collecting these studies$ hile this is a valua+le approach, it ill not alays reEect the #ull range o# innovation or limitation that are a part o# real orld commercial agriculture$ agriculture$ This USDA data is a indo on the practical range o# #arming operation and t he +est availa+le measure o# ho the diFerent production systems per#orm in a practical sense$ There are are potential arti#acts in this data set$ # there is a diFerence in the proportion o# irrigated land used #or organic vs conventional it ill s 9e the data as ill other intensity diFerences or geographic diFerences ithin a state$ Some o# the comparisons are un+alanced as in the case o# spinach and lettuce hich are more heavily represented represented +y ;+a+y< types #or organic in &ali#ornia$ ven so, the overall distri+ution o# yield spread is suciently eighted to the conventional advantage to indicate the reality o# the diFerential$ 'y email is savage$sdHgmail$com
&omparison +ased on -.0 state/crop state/crop comparisons ith at least 2 acres acres o# organic
IOrganic Yield
I&onv$ Yield
n o# -.0 comparisons, yields ere higher in organic$ 6 o# the higher yielding yieldi ng eJamples ere ith hay or silage crops, 10 ith ro crops and K1$ ith #ruits and vegeta+les
US *evel Data
Lo &rops
Lo &rops
Tr Tree, "ut and Mine Mine &rops
Tr Tree, "ut and Mine Mine &rops
Megeta+le &rops
Megeta+le &rops
State *evel Data Data ?or Lo Lo &rops
(arley 5Organic data #rom -2 #arms, #arms, 4,.10 acres, 1$6 o# total, -- yield gap, 1,2B,0.0 more acres #or organic only production7
There could +e diFerences in the proportion o# irrigated +arley in some states
(arley 51$16 million more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
&orn ?or Grain 5organic data #rom 2.- #arms, 1BN acres, 0$2 o# total, - yield gap, 4$1 million more acres needed #or organic only production 7
&orn ?or Grain 54 million more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
&orn Silage 5organic data #rom 6B0 #arms, -BN acres, 0$B o# total, 20 yield gap, 1$B million more acres needed #or organic only production7
&orn Silage 51$B1 million more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
Dry di+le (eans 5organic data #rom 120 #arms, 1-,4.2 acres, 0$6 o# total, 2- yield gap, 41,61 more acres needed #or organic only production7
Dry di+le (eans
Dry di+le =eas 5organic data #rom 4B #arms, 4. acres, 0$ o# total7
Dry di+le =eas 54.N more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
Al#al#a/)ay 'iJtures 5States ith highest organic yield, total o# 2 states ith availa+le data 1B0. #arms, 220N acres, 1$4 o# total, yield gap 2$4, -.N acres #or all organic7
Al#al#a/)ay 'iJtures 5States ith loest organic yield, total o# 2 states ith availa+le data 1B0. #arms, 220N acres, 1$4 o# total, yield gap 2$4, -.N acres #or all organic7
Other )ay 5States ith I00N acres, total 16- #arms, 1.6N acres, 0$ o# total, !21 yield gap, B$Bmillion less acres needed #or only organic production7 production7
Other )ay 5States ith K00N acres, total 16- #arms, 1.6N acres, 0$ o# total,
!21 yield gap, B$Bmillion less acres needed #or only organic production7
Other )aylage and Greenchop 5organic data #rom 6B2 #arms, 101N acres, .$. o# total, 16 yield gap, 22N more acres needed #or organic only production7
Oats 5organic data #rom 6B6 #arms, 42N acres, 4$. o# total, 1 yield gap, 1.N more acres needed #or organic only production7
=roso 'illet 5organic data #rom 26 #arms, 10N acres, 2$ o# total, 2 yield gap, 11.N more acres needed #or organic only production 7
=roso 'illet 511.N more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
Lice 5organic data #rom #arms, 2N acres, 0$6 o# total, -6 yield gap, 1$- million more acres needed #or organic only production 7
Lice 51$- million more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
Sorghum 5organic data #rom 4. #arms, B1B acres, 0$1 o# total, 21 yield gap, 1$.1 million more acres needed #or organic only production7
Sorghum 51$.1 million more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
Sorghum Sorghum Silage 5organic data #rom 11 #arms,14,1- acres, 4$ o# total, 1. yield gap, B0,46 more acres needed #or organic only production7
Sorghum Silage Yield Gap 5B0,46 more acres to produce all organic7 o rganic7
Soy+eans 5organic data #rom #rom 14-2 #arms, 66N acres, 0$1 o# total, -1 yield gap, -.$. million more acres needed #or # or organic only production7
Soy+eans 5-.$. million more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
SunEoer Seed 5organic data #rom B1 #arms, BB2 acres, 0$4 o# total, 2B yield gap, 2N more acres needed #or organic only production7
SunEoer Seed 52N more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
Durum heat 5organic data #rom 4- #arms, 10$N acres, 0$ o# total, 20 yield gap, 2N more acres needed #or organic only production7
Durum heat 5-24N more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
Spring heat 5organic data #rom 26 #arms, 0N acres, 0$B o# total, -4 yield gap, B$44 million more acres needed #or organic only production7
Spring heat 5B$4 million more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
inter heat 5States over 00N acres, total organic data #rom 2B #arms, 1.-N acres, 0$ o# total, 26 yield gap, 1-$2 million more acres needed #or organic only production 7
inter heat 5States under 00N acres, total organic data #rom 2B #arms, 1.-N acres, 0$ o# total, 26 yield gap, 1-$2 million more acres needed #or organic only production 7
inter heat
5states over 00N acres7
51-$2 million more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
inter heat
5states under 00N acres7
51-$2 more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
Other Lo &r &rops 5$ million more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
Other Lo &rops Crop
Farm s
Acres
% Total acres
&otton US
-
1,.B
0$2
4
.,B6,01
=eanuts US
21
,-64
0$B
-.
..,.
?laJseed US
B2
1,204
$0
4-
216,60
2B 6
,00
-$-
!B
!14,.6
Saoer US
10
2,4.
1$
B
12,140
*entils US
1
1,4B
0$B
-
1-6,04
Lye US
Yield Gap
More Acres for all Organic
State *evel Data ?or Tree "ut and Mine &rops
Apples 5organic data #rom BB6 #arms, 1N acres, B$ o# total, 2 yield gap, B.,6.1 more acres #or organic only production 7
Apples 5B0N more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
Avocados 5organic data #rom -.1 #arms, -,B2 acres, B$2 o# total, 12 yield gap, ,0. more acres needed #or organic only production7
Avocado 5,0. more acres ould have +een needed to produce p roduce all organic7
?resh (lue+erries 5organic data #rom -1B #arms, -,26- acres, $4 o# total, B yield gap, -,B-4 more acres to produce all organic7
(lue+erries, (lue+erries, ?resh Sta te
Farms
Acres
% Total
Ar9ansas
B
2$B
&ali#ornia
B-
641
16$B
?lorida
-6
266
.$0
. 6
Georgia
2B
2B-
1$B
11,B
"e Persey
10
1-1
1$4
-,42
"e Yor9
2
12$B
"orth &arolina
2
62
1$-
4,666
Oregon
21
2$4
2,.60
ashington
B
1,2
1-$
!1,2
B 4
-,26-
$4
-,B-4
A+ove States
More Acres -2 0 1,B
!4-
=rocessed =rocessed (lue+erries 5organic data #rom #rom 1 #arms, 660 acres, 1$2 o# total, 10. higher yield in organic segment 7
&ran+erries 5organic data #rom #rom -0 #arms, 2- acres, 0$. o# total, B. B . yield gap, ,- more acres needed #or all organic production7
Grape#ruit 5organic data #rom #rom 1- #arms, 1,411 acres, 2$0 o# total, -2 yield gap, -2,0B2 more acres acres needed #or all organic production7
Grapes 5organic data #rom #rom B1 #arms, 2.,006 acres, 2$B o# total, 46 yield gap, 62,B2 more acres acres needed #or all organic production7
The &ali#ornia, and thus the US num+er is s9eed +ecause the organic grapes tend to +e gron in the premium ine producing areas hich have much loer yields than those in the central valley #or ine, ta+le and raisin grapes
=ears 5organic data #rom 242 #arms, 2,B. acres, 0$ o# total, -2 yield gap, 21,B41 more acres needed #or organic only production7
=eaches, ?resh 52 #arms, 2,.64 acres, 2$. o# total, 2 yield gap,-.,.40 more more acres needed #or all organic production7
Lasp+erries 5organic data #rom 1 #arms, -6- acres, $. o# total, 1 yield gap, 1,1- more acres needed #or organic only production7
Stra+erries 5organic data #rom B1 #arms, 2,60 acres, $ o# total, B1 yield gap, .,121 more acres needed #or organic only production7
Other Tree and Mine &rops Crop
Farm s
Acres
% Total
Yield Gap
Almonds US
66
B,1B2
0$.
4-
B4-,600
(lac9+erries US
16
B0
1$0
42
4,--
S$ &herries US
1 B0
1,
2$1
!B$-
S$ &herries A
0
1,406
4$0
1
,-
S$ &herries &A
-
- 00
0$6
16
.,4
T$ T$ &herries US
-
4B
1$2
!B
!2,12.
&oFee US
4-
2 24
2$6
2
2,1
Dates US
2B
.0
$B
10
B1
116
1,2-
1.$B
B4
1,00-B
1
1 .
0$B
-
1,4-2
*emons &A
1 6
2,11
4$B
2-
1-,1
=lums &A
12
2,-20
12$6
-.
6,-4-
=lums OL
-1
B
B$B
B
?igs US )aQelnuts US
More Acres
!114,20
0
State *evel Data ?or Megeta+le &rops
Snap (eans 5organic data #rom 4- #arms, 1,2 acres, 2$- o# total, 44 yield advantage, !20N acres needed #or organic only production7
&a++age 5green7 5organic data #rom B.1 #arms, 126 acres, 2$1 o# total, - yield gap,-.,6B more acres needed i# all organic7
&auliEoer 5organic data #rom -1B #arms, 1,.4 acres, 4$B o# total, -0 yield gap, 1,426 more acres needed i# all organic7
&antaloupes and 'us9mellons 5organic data #rom -. #arms, 1,1.4 acres, 1$6 o# total, 6,00 more acres need #or all organic7
All +ut &ali#ornia less than 12 acres organic total per state
&arrots 5organic data #rom 10B2 #arms, 6.2 acres, 12$1 o# total, 46 yield gap, B1,06 more acres needed #or all organic7
Garlic 5organic data #rom 6.2 #arms, .2B acres, -$1 o# total, BB yield gap, 44,61 more acres i# all organic7
Onions, Dry 5organic data #rom 41. #arms, 1-2 acres, 1$0 o# total acres, 21 yield gap, -,B-- more acres #or all organic7
Only isconsin and &ali#ornia have more than 10 acres o# organic onions
(ell =eppers 5organic data #rom 1 #arms, 1,16B acres, 2$B o# total, 40 yield gap, -0,B6 acres to produce all organic7
Georgia and 'ichigan had K10 acres o# organic peppers
=otatoes 5organic data #rom 6- #arms, 12N acres, 1$1 o# total, yield gap -0, 40,106 more acres needed #or only organic7
'T, ?*, NS, ', *, 'D, '" all 10 or less organic acres
=otatoes 540N more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
S8uash 5organic data #rom 1,-4. #arms, B,2B acres, 1.$. o# total, 10 US yield gap, -,42 more acres #or only organic production7
Seet &orn 5organic data #rom 2B #arms, 11,-2 acres,1-$1 o# total$ Sorted +y organic yield, !1B yield gap, !10,-0 acres i# all organic, 7
Only OL, &A, "Y, =A, "&, MT, A, I20 acres organic so only these states included in summary statistics a+ove
Seet =otatoes 5organic data #rom -02 #arms, B,00 acres, 4$4 o# total, !26 yield gap, !2,61. acres #or organic only production7
?resh Tomatoes 5organic data #rom 21 #arms, 2,BB acres, -$0 o# total, yield gap B1, 126,B.2 more acres needed #or organic only production7
Summary statistics +ased on states ith a least 2 acres o# organic #resh tomatoes
atermelons 5organic data #rom -41 #arms, .1 acres, 0$ o# total, .B yield gap, --, more acres needed #or organic only production7 ", AN, MA, 'A, GA K 20 acres o# organic atermelons
Other Megeta+le &rop Yield Yield Gaps Gaps 56-1 more acres ould have +een needed to produce all organic7
Other Megeta+les egeta+les Crop
Farms
Acres
% of Total Acres
2
10 2
(roccoli US
. 1B
(roccoli &A &elery US
Articho9es &A
)ops US
Yield Dierential (%)
More Acres If All Organic
1$4
!.
!462
,.1
B$.
1 .
2,-1.
1 0
.,24B
$B
10,.0
16 0
2,2-
.$.
-2
12,B.
-1
42 1
1$1
- 6
24,16B
6$4
.6R
0,.6
*ea# *ettuce US *ettuce All US
1 0B-
-2,122
12$-
.2R
60,B0
Green =eas US
-
6,B24
$1
!12
!16,0
Spinach US
4 11
1,000
4.$6
.1R
4.,0B
=rocessing Tomatoes Tomatoes US
4,4
1$
-
16,0
