Thayer China Explaining Recent Aggrressive Assertiveness in the South China Sea

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China: Explaining Recent Aggressive Assertiveness in the South China Sea Carlyle A. Thayer October 4, 2018 Q1 - Why did China conduct such a dangerous action against the USS Decator at this time? What message is China sending? ANSWER: Four reasons form the backdrop to China's new assertiveness in mounting its first serious challenge to a U.S. freedom of navigation operation under the Trump Administration. First, the Trump Administration has markedly stepped up freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea since it took office. Second, the U.S. has also increased the number of continuous bomber presence patrols of B-52s and B-1s over the South China Sea and East China Sea. Not only are bombers flying from Guam towards China's east coast and turning back before they enter China's airspace, but the U.S. is also demonstrating global reach by flying B-52 bombers from North Dakota in the United States and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean over the South China Sea. The most recent U.S. B-52H flight over the East China Sea was accompanied by an escort of Japan Air Self-Defence Force jets. Third, the U.S. sanctioned a Chinese military company for purchasing weapons from Russia. Finally, and this is the most important factor, the U.S. recently approved the sale of U.S. $3300 million in spare parts for Taiwan's F-16 fighters. China has always vowed to push back against challenges to its sovereignty so it was not surprising that a Chinese warship manoeuvred dangerous close to the USS Decator. This should be viewed as posturing. China also cancelled a scheduled port visit by there USS Wasp to Hong Kong and then conducted live firing exercises by People's Liberation Army Air Force planes over the South China Sea. A Chinese Navy Commander also cancelled his visit to the United States. U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis has taken a measured view of this incident. He cancelled a trip to Beijing but also indicates relations would return to an even keel. Q2 - Do you think Trump Administration’s challenge to China in the South China Sea is related to the U.S.China trade war? Are these t hese two issues related? ANSWER: On the face of it the Trump Administration has not made an explicit linkage between the South China Sea and trade/intellectual property issues with China. The

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U.S. continuous bomber presence flights and freedom of navigation operational patrols continued under the Trump T rump Administration before the United States imposed tariffs against China. When China responded to its own tariffs, the U.S. retaliated. The Trump Administration just indicated that trade talks might resume. There is speculation that Trump may meet with President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit at the end of the year. The T he only linkage Trump as made with trade is Chinese cooperation on North Korea.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “China: Explaining Recent Aggressive Assertiveness in the South China Sea,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief , October 4, 2018. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.